Game Overview ::
By Hilow >>
- Jonathan Taylor missed practice on Wednesday after missing Week 5, which is typically not a good sign for a return to game action.
- Nyheim Hines was limited in practice Wednesday as he works his way through the league’s five-step concussion protocol. The Colts last played on Thursday, so the additional three days is a good sign for Hines’ potential to return in time for Week 6.
- Colts LB Shaquille Leonard has had a tough go this season, returning for only 30% of the snaps in Week 4 before suffering a scary head/neck/back injury that sidelined him once again. He is currently listed as DNP on Wednesday with concussion/nose/back injuries.
- Jacksonville ranks third in net points per drive while Indianapolis ranks 31st.
- The Jaguars hold the league’s sixth fastest first half pace of play and 31st-ranked pace of play with a lead of seven or more points, indicating an unwillingness to try and put games away and instead an attempt to inch towards a win.
- The Colts rank dead last in points per game at 13.8, which is somewhat hilarious considering the state of Chicago, Denver, Pittsburgh, and Houston, to name a few.
- Both teams are tied in adjusted line yards on offense at 3.80, which ranks 30th in the league ahead of only Washington.
- Jacksonville beat Indianapolis 24-0 in their first meeting in Week 3. Playing the same divisional opponent twice within a month is silly, NFL, do better.
How JACKSONVILLE Will Try To Win ::
The Jaguars are attacking games in the first half and running with their tail between their legs in the second half and/or with a lead this season, trying to limp to victory. That has bitten them twice already this season in losses to the Eagles and Texans. By the numbers, the Jaguars have been a very balanced offense this year, with an expected pass rate almost exactly matching their actual pass rate through five weeks. Their true pass rate of 57.89% ranks 20th in the league while their ninth-ranked values in both offensive and defensive points per drive has them at third overall in net points per drive. Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence has appeared capable this season, with the offensive scheme not doing him any favors. His 7.8 intended air yards per pass attempt ranks 16th in the league while his 3.5 completed air yards per pass attempt ranks 19th. That said, the team has attempted only 31 passes from either RPO or play action, instead running a more “straight up” offense.
Things don’t get any rosier through their run game, one that is running behind an offensive line blocking to only 3.80 adjusted line yards, ranks 30th in power success rate, and ranks dead last in stuffed rate. Their backs are exceeding early expectations, combining to run for 4.45 running back yards per carry, which likely signals a regression to the mean at some point this year, particularly considering the team runs a relatively straightforward offense in scheme and design. James Robinson surprised most by not only making it back from a torn Achilles but exhibiting above average burst and efficiency metrics over the first three games of the year. That has been a different story over the last two games, as he has simultaneously seen his efficiency decline and ceded more snaps and opportunities to Travis Etienne. Expect some form of committee here, with recent trends indicating a 60/40 split in favor of Etienne. Consider this – Robinson averaged 20 running back opportunities over the first three weeks and has since been held to an average of 10 over the previous two weeks. One of those games came against the stout defense of the Eagles while one came against the relative sieve in the Texans, indicating what should be a changing of the guard in Jacksonville.
The Jaguars run primarily a straight-up, 11-personnel base offense with almost zero utilization of 21-personnel and below average rates of 12-personnel, meaning Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, and Zay Jones should all be expected to play the majority of the offensive snaps in a standard week. Kirk leads the team with a 22.5% team target market share and 26.7% targets per route run rate, followed by 21.3% and 25.8% from Zay Jones in those two metrics, respectively. Only Marvin Jones holds an aDOT deeper than league average at 14.3 to pair with a 17.3% team target market share and 20.4% targets per route run rate. In all, there’s nothing really here to separate one from the other two, with all three falling within 30-39 total targets this year. Each of the three has seen exactly one game of double-digit targets through five weeks. Newcomer tight end Evan Engram joins the fray with one game of double-digit targets as well on a 20.2% targets per route run rate. In all, the team lands right at league average at 36.2 pass attempts per game that operates in a relatively spread nature amongst the top four pass-catchers.
How INDIANAPOLIS Will Try To Win ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
- Lawrence vs 2021 IND: 162:0 // 223:2
- Lawrence vs 2022 IND: 235:2
- Lawrence threw for 225+ yds in just 6/17 games in 2021
- Lawrence in 2022: 275:1:1 // 235:2 // 262:3 // 174:2:1 // 286:0:2 // (4 of 5)
- IND ranks 21st in def pass DVOA
- QBs vs IND: Mills (240:2) // Lawrence (235:2) // Mahomes (262:1:1) // Tanny (137:2) // Russ (274:0:2)
- IND allowed the 8th fewest WR yds in 2021, but the 3rd most WR TDs
- 2022 WRs vs IND: Cooks (7:82) // Kirk (6:78:2) // Juju (5:89) // Woods (4:30:1) // Sutton (5:74)
- Top JAC WRs vs IND in 2021: MJJ (2:35; 7:88:1) // Viska (5:62) // Treadwell (3:24:1)
- JAC WRs vs IND in 2022: Kirk (78:2) // MJJ (33) // Zay (23)
- Zay Jones health means Kirk resumes more play in the slot, which also helps to avoid Stephon Gilmore on the outside
- Top JAC WR DK score by week: Kirk (20.7, 25.8) // Zay (24.5) // Agnew (21) // MJJ (20.4)
- Rush att: JRob (11 // 23 // 17 // 8 // 10) // Etienne (4 // 9 // 13 // 8 // 10)
- Targets: JRob (2 // 2 // 3 // 0 // 2) // Etienne (4 // 3 // 3 // 1 // 5)
- Total yds: JRob (69:2 / 78:1 / 116:1 / 29 // 39) // Etienne (65 / 53 / 75 / 32 // 114)
- Robinson had 40 rush att in the two games JAC won 62-10
- Robinson had 29 rush att in the three games JAC lost 49-70
- JAC is a 2 pt road dog to the Colts team they won in shutout in W2
- IND ranks 2nd in def rush DVOA (3rd in 2021)
- 2022 RBs rushing vs IND: HOU (17:73) // JAC (32:84:1) // KC (17:29:1) // TEN (22:114:1) // DEN (23:94)
- Notable RB receiving vs IND: Burkhead (30) // Etienne (33) // CEH (39) // Henry (33) // Gordon (49), Boone (47)
- 2022 Matt Ryan: 352:1:1 // 195:0:3 // 222:2 // 356:2:1 // 251:0:2
- Pass def DVOAs of those opponents: 14th // 9th // 19th // 28th // 2nd
- JAC ranks 9th in def pass DVOA
- QBs vs JAC: Wentz (313:4:2) // Ryan (195:0:3) // Herbert (297:1:1) // Hurts (204:0:1) // Mills (140:0)
- IND threw the 6th fewest pass att in 2021 with Wentz (13th fewest in 2020 with Rivers)
- Ryan has thrown 50, 30, 37, 37, 41 passes, and the 50/41 came with OTs played
- Michael Pittman missed the first JAC game
- Alec Pierce leads IND in receiving over the last 3 weeks, with 61/80/81 compared to Pittman’s 72/31/59
- Tg in Pittman games: Pittman (13, 9, 6, 8) // Pierce (2, 5, 6, 9) // Campbell (4, 2, 4, 3)
- Pierce has an 11.9 aDOT and his routes/dropback read 36/54, 20/43, 17/41, 36/48
- IND WRs vs JAC in W2: Dulin (79) // Patmon (24) // Strachan (23)
- #1 WRs vs JAC: McLaurin (58:1) // Williams (15:1) // AJB (95) // Cooks (20)
- Pittman vs 2021 JAC: 5:71 // 6:64:1
- IND points when Pittman scores 20+ DK pts: 34 // 24 // 25 // 30 // 31 // 20
- Pittman as Home Favorite has 7 scores under 7 DK pts and just 3 scores over 15 DK pts
- Hines & Taylor both limited practice Thursday
- RB yds vs JAC: Gibson (130) // Taylor (63) // Ekeler (53) // Sanders (156:2) // Pierce (113:1)
- Taylor total touches & yds: 38:175:1 // 10:63 // 26:91 // 23:43
- Taylor had 15+ att in all but two games in 2021
- Taylor att in 2022: 31 // 9 // 21 // 20
- Taylor as a home favorite (13 g) has 8 scores of 20+ DK pts, and 5 of 25+ DK pts
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