Kickoff Sunday, Oct 16th 1:00pm Eastern

Ravens (
25.5) at
Giants (
20)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
7th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
31st DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per pass
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
1st DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
19th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
4th DVOA/4th Yards per pass

Game Overview::

By hilow >>
  • Ravens WR Rashod Bateman missed Week 5 with a foot injury and did not practice to start the week.
  • Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson was limited to start the week while Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay missed practice.
  • The Ravens appear to be a more uptempo offense if looking at their situation-neutral pace of play, but their 30th-ranked overall pace of play and 32nd-ranked first half pace of play indicate a team whose offensive game plan remains consistent with what we have seen in the past (slow pace of play, lower than average volume, and above average efficiency).
  • The Giants have ridden Saquon Barkley and an above average defense (headed by Wink Martindale) to a 4-1 record.

How Baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The Ravens maintain a top-six Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) value but we must realize that their expected pass rate, based on game flow and situational play calling, is only 56.3%, which ranks third lowest in the league. That helps explain a low 54.3% overall pass rate and only 29.8 pass attempts per game, each of which ranks in the bottom 10 in the league. The context of those metrics is important, meaning this is not suddenly a pass-heavy offense with bankable volume across the board. Furthering the somewhat unexciting outlook is an opponent facing only 30.8 pass attempts per game. The Giants elevated average time of possession (31:07) and increased rush rates aid in that low number, but the reality is that the Giants remain largely untested, and their opponents to this point in the season have ranked: 32nd, 30th, 26th, 22nd, and 17th in pass attempts per game (the Ravens rank 25th at 29.8). To me, that’s simply schedule-induced variance more than it is a resounding indication of the effectiveness of the Giants defense. All of that to say, we should expect the Ravens to largely be able to attack in their preferred manner, which includes elevated rush rates and a focused, yet low volume, pass game.

The return to health of running back J.K. Dobbins has not yet translated to a lion’s share of the backfield workload, with snap rates through three healthy games of 43%, 50%, and 40%, leading to running back opportunity counts of nine, 17, and eight. Expect fullback Patrick Ricard to continue seeing elevated snap rates on a team that utilizes increased rates of heavy personnel alignments, primarily through the use of 21-personnel (“increased” as in “off the charts,” as the Ravens have run 21-personnel 40% or more in all but one game this year). Kenyan Drake should be on hand to serve as the change of pace/1B option to pair with Dobbins, while Justice Hill is working his way back from injury. The macro view here is any back should be treated as a low-volume yardage-and-touchdown back considering the offense has fed only 17 total targets to the running back position this year (third fewest). The pure rushing matchup yields a well above average 4.64 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Giants defense allowing a gaudy 5.10 yards per running back carry.

Mark Andrews is once again asserting dominance on the tight end position, responsible for a 98.7% route participation rate, a ridiculous 34.1% team target market share, a ludicrous 45.0% red zone team target market share, the most air yards at the position (482), the greatest air yards share (34.9%), and even the most unrealized air yards at the position (241). His 2.37 yards per route run value would rival the elite wide receivers, and he’s playing tight end, for Pete’s sake. To say that Mark Andrews is the focal point of this offense seems like a gross understatement. As such, even though we can’t ever project Lamar Jackson for more than 28-32 pass attempts (he has landed in this range in every game this season), we can assume, with a high degree of confidence, that Andrews can still reach double-digit (and high value) targets in most weeks. This week is no different. Things get a little dicey behind Andrews, particularly considering the status of lead wide receiver Rashod Bateman, who failed to practice on Wednesday after missing Week 5 (typically not a good sign for a return to game action). Devin Duvernay and Demarcus Robinson led the way in snaps a week ago, with Duvernay exhibiting his best “Deebo-lite” impression en route to seven targets and three carries. Duvernay has three offensive and one special teams touchdowns through five games and is a Pro Bowl-level talent in the return game, so the upside is there should his role expand again without Bateman. Robinson is a body on the field, with a low 14.3% targets per route run value and a low 56.4% route participation rate. He has yet to see more than four targets in a game this season. Tylan Wallace and James Proche split situational duties with 13 snaps and 18 snaps, respectively. Even with the injury to Bateman, everyone’s favorite breakout rookie tight end Isaiah Likely only saw 15 offensive snaps.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • BAL’s implied total of 24.75 is the ninth highest in Week 6
  • BAL -5 is the seventh widest spread
  • The OVER has hit in just one NYG game this year
  • NYG ranks fourth in fewest adj. seconds/play, BAL ranks 30th (per numberFire)
  • BAL ranks sixth in PROE, NYG ranks 24th
  • NYG ranks sixth in avg. time of possession, BAL ranks 15th
  • BAL ranks fourth in ppg, NYG defense ranks ninth in ppg allowed
  • NYG ranks tied for 19th in ppg, BAL defense ranks 17th in ppg allowed
  • BAL ranks 14th in ypg, NYG defense ranks 12th in ypg allowed
  • NYG ranks 23rd in ypg, BAL ranks 28th in ypg allowed
  • PFF ranks the BAL offensive line at 7th best, NYG ranks 30th
  • The NYG defense ranks 15th by PFF, BAL ranks 18th

Lamar Jackson

  • 18th in PFF passing grade
  • 34th in fastest time to throw
  • Second highest % of dropbacks where he’s had responsibility on the pressure allowed
  • Ranks eighth in Pass EPA/play, 10th in CPOE, seventh in ADoT, & 27th in on-target % (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • Jackson’s ($8,100) last four game logs (in chronological order): 21/29:318:3 & 9:119:1 // 18/29:218:4:1 & 11:107:1 // 20/29:144:1:2 & 11:73 // 19/32:174:1:1 & 12:58
  • His 28.8 DK ppg ranks second
  • In 20 games as a road favorite since his 2019 MVP season, Jackson has scored 30+ DK pts seven times
  • NYG ranks eighth in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Just one QB has hit 250 yds
  • None have scored 20 DK pts

BAL Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Mark Andrews 89.7% // Devin Duvernay 60.6% // Demarcus Robinson 51% // Rashod Bateman 45.5%
  • Target share: Andrews 30.9% // Bateman 14.8% // Duvernay 13.4% // Isaiah Likely 8.7% // Robinson 8.1%
  • Redzone targets: Andrews 9 // Duvernay 3 // Robinson 3 // Likely 2
  • Bateman ($5,200) ranks ninth in ADoT & sixth in YPRR (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 2/5:59:1 // 4/7:108:1 // 2/4:59 // 3/6:17
  • Scored 20+ DK pts twice in 15 games
  • His Week 6 status is uncertain
  • Duvernay ($4,700) ranks 18th in ADoT & 22nd in YPRR
  • His last four game logs: 2/2:42 & kick return TD // 2/2:25:1 // 4/5:51 // 5/7:54
  • Scored 20+ DK pts once in 33 career games
  • NYG ranks second in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Four WRs have hit 60+ yds
  • Just one has hit 20+ DK pts (CeeDee Lamb 22.7)
  • Andrews ($7,000) ranks first in target share, first in air yard share, fourth in ADoT, first in WOPR, first in YPRR, & first in TPRR
  • His last four game logs: 9/11:104:1 // 8/13:89:2 // 2/5:15 // 8/10:89:1
  • His 18.8 DK ppg ranks second
  • Scored 4x his Week 6 DK salary seven times since Jackson’s MVP season (2019)
  • NYG ranks 13th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Only Peyton Hendershot has hit 40+ yds
  • None have hit double digit DK pts

BAL Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: J.K. Dobbins 28.1% // Justice Hill 27.7% // Kenyan Drake 24.2%
  • Rush share: Dobbins 36.8% // Drake 27.6% // Hill 15%
  • Target share: Dobbins 4% // Hill 2.7% // Drake 1.3%
  • Redzone touches: Dobbins 8 // Lamar Jackson 6 // Drake 3 // Hill 1
  • Dobbins’s ($5,500) game logs: 7:23 & 2/2:17 // 13:41:1 & 4/4:22:1 // 8:44
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in 20 career games
  • No other BAL RB has scored double digit DK pts this year
  • NYG ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Five RBs have hit 70+ yds: Ezekiel Elliott 73 // Khalil Herbert 77 // Derrick Henry 82 // Christian McCaffrey 102 // Tony Pollard 105
  • Only Dontrell Hilliard, who is the lone RB with more than 30 rec yds vs. NYG (he had 61 with 2 rec TDs), has hit 20+ DK pts vs. NYG

Daniel Jones

  • 20th in PFF passing grade
  • Under pressure on 48.2% of his dropbacks this season
  • Completing 20.6% more of his passes when utilizing play action
  • Dropping back in play action 41.7% of the time (58.3% without play action)
  • 33rd in fastest time to throw
  • Ranks ninth in CPOE, 27th in adj. YPA, & 39th in ADoT (per 4for4)
  • Jones’s ($5,200) last four game logs: 22/34:176:1 & 10:21 // 20/37:196:0:1 & 9:79 // 8/13:71 & 6:68:2 // 21/27:217 & 10:37
  • In 33 games as an underdog, Jones has scored 4x his Week 6 DK salary seven times, with the following notable scores: 29.46 // 30.78 // 32.18 // 39.24
  • He’s never hit 25+ DK pts as a home dog (16 games)
  • BAL ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Three QBs have hit 300+ yds, but only one has thrown for multiple TDs (Tua Tagovailoa had six) and all QBs have at least one INT
  • Tua’s 43.86 DK pts are the only score over 25 this year

NYG Passing Attack

  • Snap share: David Sills 64% // Daniel Bellinger 59.8% // Richie James 54.4%
  • Target share: James 16.3% // Bellinger 8.9% // Sills 8.9%
  • Redzone targets: Sills 2 // Bellinger 2 // Darius Slayton 2
  • No NYG WR is priced over $4,500 in Week 6 DK salary
  • Among the expected starting WRs this week, only Darius Slayton has hit 15+ DK pts since 2020 for NYG (he did so twice in 2020)
  • Slayton’s the only WR to hit 75+ yds (once)
  • Richie James is the only other Week 6 NYG WR to hit 50+ yds (twice)
  • BAL ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Three WRs have hit 150+ yds, and two more have hit 60+
  • Notable scores: DeVante Parker 23.6 // Jaylen Waddle 43.1 // Tyreek Hill 45
  • Bellinger ($3,200) ranks 10th in YPRR
  • His last four game logs: 1/1:16:1 // 4/5:40 // 3/3:23 // 2/3:22
  • BAL ranks 18th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Three TEs have hit 40+ yds
  • Notable scores: Tyler Conklin 11.4 // Mike Gesicki 14.1 // Hayden Hurst 17.3

Saquon Barkley

  • Barkley ($7,700) ranks 11th in rush share, eighth in RYOE/carry, & 16th in high value touch %
  • His last four game logs: 21:72 & 3/4:16 // 14:81:1 & 4/4:45 // 31:146 & 2/2:16 // 13:70:1 & 3/6:36
  • His 22.3 DK ppg ranks third
  • During his heyday from 2018-2019, Barkley was priced at $9,000+ on DK
  • He’s scored 30+ DK pts seven times in 50 career games (once so far this year)
  • BAL ranks 15th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Just two RBs have hit 70+ yds and none have had 80
  • Four RBs have hit 30+ rec yds: Breece Hall 38 // Samaje Perine 39 // Michael Carter 40 // Devin Singletary 47
  • Only Rhamondre Stevenson has hit 20+ DK pts vs. BAL (20.1)