Kickoff Monday, Oct 17th 8:15pm Eastern

Broncos (
20.75) at

Chargers (
24.75)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Broncos Run D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
26th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
16th DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
22nd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
14th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
18th DVOA/25th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 6 comes to a close as the Broncos visit the Chargers in what probably looked like an exciting game when the NFL was making the schedule, but now apparently Russell Wilson is dust and so it looks like another tedious island game. But, at least we have Showdown to make even terrible games interesting (or at least profitable)! The game has a modest total of 45.5 with the Chargers favored by 4.5, which tells us how the field is likely to build for this one. 

Denver

On the Broncos side, the backfield is now Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone following Javonte Williams’ season-ending injury. Last week, we saw how this played out, with MG3 seeing 56% of the snaps to Boone’s 41%, and Gordon seeing 15 carries/3 targets to Boone’s 7 carries/3 targets. On a team with a struggling quarterback and facing a defense that is better against passing than rushing, we can expect Denver to lean on their run game here for as long as the game flow allows but be aware of the risk that MG3 and Boone carry in builds predicated on the Chargers winning handily. Given their modest prices, I think you can play them together but would not pair them both with Russ, unless building for an unexpected Broncos 5-1 curb stomping. We also have a bit of a wildcard here: both MG3 and Boone are questionable, and while both are expected to play, the Broncos are also likely to have Latavius Murray active in this one. There’s nothing to really point to this, but if MG3 and/or Boone are banged up, Murray could play more than most people would expect. It’s a thin play, but one with upside if you’re playing a bunch of tourney rosters. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Broncos will trot out Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy as their dynamic duo, with a pile of randomness and chaos behind them. Sutton leads Jeudy in targets 46-29, in receiving yards 417-236, and in red zone targets 9-5. Jeudy is a great talent and deserves plenty of consideration, but Sutton is clearly the stronger overall play and the $1,400 price difference between them does not sufficiently reflect the difference in their roles. Sutton is clearly too cheap in this one (normally a wide receiver averaging 16 DK points per game would be somewhere in the $9.5k – $10.5k range). Behind these two, yikes. K.J. Hamler and Kendall Hinton have traded off the WR3 role all season but it looks like Hamler took it back after a couple of games with very low snaps, possibly due to recovering from the injury that caused him to miss Week 2 . . . but Hamler also only has four targets on the season. Tyrie Cleveland and/or Montrell Washington will play a handful of snaps and can be used in MME pools, with Cleveland the (slightly) better play; or, the less bad play, more realistically. At tight end, the Broncos use all of Eric Saubert, Eric Tomlinson, Andrew Beck, and Albert Okwuegbunam, making all of them tournament only plays. Saubert leads the position in snaps and targets, Tomlinson is a blocker who can largely be disregarded, Beck is also primarily a blocker (52 receiving yards in Week 1 but just 1 target and 0 catches since), while Albert O is a talented pass catcher who has found his way into the doghouse somehow (5/33/0 in Week 1 on 6 targets, but then just five targets since then while his snaps have vanished). All of these dudes are dart throws, and I would rank them as Saubert (the safest), Albert (risky but upside), Beck, and then Tomlinson. 

<< Inner Circle! >>

Inner Circle will return for the 2024 NFL season

By Dwprix >>

Overview

  • Total of 45.5
  • LAC favored by 4.5
  • These teams split their games last season: (LAC 13 DEN 28) // (DEN 13 LAC 34)
  • LAC has scored 30+ in last two games (30 @ CLE, 34 @ HOU)
  • DEN didn’t score any TDs last week
  • They’ve only broke 16 pts in one game (12, 23, 11, 16, 16)
  • DEN ranks tied for last in offensive TDs/g (1.2) & 32nd in red zone TD % (21.43)

Russell Wilson

  • 4 TDs:1 INT // 2 games with 0 TDs
  • Broke 300+ pass yds once (1st game of season): (274, 237, 184, 219, 340)
  • Rushing yds:atts WK1 & WK2: (1:2, 2:3) // WKs 3-5 (6:17, 4:29:1 TD, 4:22)
  • LAC allows 18.1 DK pts/g to QBs (14th most)
  • Wilson DK pts: (20.8, 12.1, 9.1, 27.5, 11.2)

DEN WRs

  • Sutton has 10 or more tgts in last 3 of 4 games (11, 7, 10, 11)
  • Jeudy has yet to see 10 in a game all season (8, 5, 6, 3, 7)
  • Tgt share: (Sutton 28%) // (Jeudy 18%) // No other WR over 3%
  • Sutton’s 9.2 tgts/g is 14th among WRs
  • He has 1 game over 100 receiving yds (74, 52, 97, 122, 72)
  • LAC allows 37.9 DK pts/g to WRs (11th most)

DEN RBs

  • Gordon saw a season high 15 rush attempts last week with Javonte out
  • He still only played on 56% of snaps // Boone played on 41%
  • Gordon last season vs LAC: (17:83, 4.9 DK pts) // 10:43, 10.2)
  • Boone last week: (7:38, 3:47-3 tgts // 11.5 DK pts)
  • LAC allows 130.0 rush yds/g (25th entering the week)
  • They’ve allowed a hundred yard rusher in 3 straight: (Chubb 134, Pierce 131, Robinson 100)
  • Each of these RBs scored, Chubb scored twice
  • LAC allowes 33.8 DK pts/g to RBs (most in NFL)

DEN TEs

  • Albert O’s playing time has decreased since the start of the season with snap counts of 44, 38, 24, 1, 15
  • Eris Saubert’s have went up: 18, 26, 35, 41, 41
  • Saubert saw a season high in tgts for DEN TEs last week with 7
  • LAC allows 11.0 DK pts/g to TEs (13th fewest)

Justin Herbert

  • DEN hasn’t allowed 200+ pass yds this season
  • Herbert ranked 2nd in pass yds/g coming into week 6 (295.6)
  • He’s thrown for 300+ twice (228, 340, 297, 334, 279)
  • 30+ pass attempts in every game (34, 39, 45, 48, 34)
  • LAC ranks 5th in pass attempts/g (40.0)
  • DEN has allowed 34.0 (12th most)
  • DEN allows 11.1 DK pts/g to QBs (least in NFL)

LAC WRs

  • Williams DK pts this season w/o Keenan: (28.3, 8.5, 22.0, 26.4)
  • Double digit targets in last 3 of 4: (13, 11, 6, 10)
  • 100+ yards in the three he saw 10+ tgts (134, 120, 113)
  • Joshua Palmer tgts: (6, 1, 9, 8, 4)
  • DEN allows the 3rd fewest DK pts/g to WRs (27.1)

LAC RBs

  • Ekeler was averaging 35 rush yds/g before last weeks 173 
  • LAC had 256 total rush yards weeks 1-4 // 235 last week
  • 5 total TDs in past 2 games (3 rush, 2 rec)
  • DK pts: (38.9, 34.9, 13.3, 18.4, 11.2)
  • Joshua Kelley saw a season high 10 rush attempts last week (10:49:1 TD)
  • DEN allows 20.3 DK pts/g to RBs (9th least)

Gerald Everett

  • Tgts: (3, 6, 6, 10, 4)
  • Everett saw season lows in tgts (3), catches (1), & yds (2) last week
  • Previous weeks: (5:61:1TD-6 tgts) // (2:25-6 tgts) // (6:71-10 tgts) // (3:54:1 TD-4 tgts)
  • He’s scored double digit DK pts in 3 of 5: (1.2, 17.1, 4.5, 13.1, 14.4)
  • DEN allows 11.2 DK pts/g to TEs (14th fewest)