Broncos (

20.75) at
Chargers (

24.75)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 6 comes to a close as the Broncos visit the Chargers in what probably looked like an exciting game when the NFL was making the schedule, but now apparently Russell Wilson is dust and so it looks like another tedious island game. But, at least we have Showdown to make even terrible games interesting (or at least profitable)! The game has a modest total of 45.5 with the Chargers favored by 4.5, which tells us how the field is likely to build for this one. 

Denver

On the Broncos side, the backfield is now Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone following Javonte Williams’ season-ending injury. Last week, we saw how this played out, with MG3 seeing 56% of the snaps to Boone’s 41%, and Gordon seeing 15 carries/3 targets to Boone’s 7 carries/3 targets. On a team with a struggling quarterback and facing a defense that is better against passing than rushing, we can expect Denver to lean on their run game here for as long as the game flow allows but be aware of the risk that MG3 and Boone carry in builds predicated on the Chargers winning handily. Given their modest prices, I think you can play them together but would not pair them both with Russ, unless building for an unexpected Broncos 5-1 curb stomping. We also have a bit of a wildcard here: both MG3 and Boone are questionable, and while both are expected to play, the Broncos are also likely to have Latavius Murray active in this one. There’s nothing to really point to this, but if MG3 and/or Boone are banged up, Murray could play more than most people would expect. It’s a thin play, but one with upside if you’re playing a bunch of tourney rosters. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Broncos will trot out Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy as their dynamic duo, with a pile of randomness and chaos behind them. Sutton leads Jeudy in targets 46-29, in receiving yards 417-236, and in red zone targets 9-5. Jeudy is a great talent and deserves plenty of consideration, but Sutton is clearly the stronger overall play and the $1,400 price difference between them does not sufficiently reflect the difference in their roles. Sutton is clearly too cheap in this one (normally a wide receiver averaging 16 DK points per game would be somewhere in the $9.5k – $10.5k range). Behind these two, yikes. K.J. Hamler and Kendall Hinton have traded off the WR3 role all season but it looks like Hamler took it back after a couple of games with very low snaps, possibly due to recovering from the injury that caused him to miss Week 2 . . . but Hamler also only has four targets on the season. Tyrie Cleveland and/or Montrell Washington will play a handful of snaps and can be used in MME pools, with Cleveland the (slightly) better play; or, the less bad play, more realistically. At tight end, the Broncos use all of Eric Saubert, Eric Tomlinson, Andrew Beck, and Albert Okwuegbunam, making all of them tournament only plays. Saubert leads the position in snaps and targets, Tomlinson is a blocker who can largely be disregarded, Beck is also primarily a blocker (52 receiving yards in Week 1 but just 1 target and 0 catches since), while Albert O is a talented pass catcher who has found his way into the doghouse somehow (5/33/0 in Week 1 on 6 targets, but then just five targets since then while his snaps have vanished). All of these dudes are dart throws, and I would rank them as Saubert (the safest), Albert (risky but upside), Beck, and then Tomlinson.