Kickoff Sunday, Oct 16th 1:00pm Eastern

Vikings (
24) at
Dolphins (
21)

Over/Under 45.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Vikings Run D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
3rd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
21st DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
27th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
18th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
21st DVOA/17th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Minnesota ranks seventh in pass rate over expectation (PROE), while the Dolphins have been steadily declining over the previous three weeks since their shootout with the Ravens, particularly because they have been playing with their number two and number three quarterbacks.
  • Miami head coach Mike McDaniel has said that the team is preparing to start rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson regardless of the status of Teddy Bridgewater, which is a great coaching move considering the team now gets a full week of preparation with their quarterback.
  • Raheem Mostert missed practice to start the week with a knee injury. There was no indication as to when the injury happened, considering he rattled off 122 yards and a score on 19 touches last week.
  • Kirk Cousins has historically struggled under pressure – the Dolphins blitz at an above-average rate but have struggled to hit home with the third-lowest pressure rate in the league.
  • The Vikings rank eighth in first-half pace of play, while the Dolphins rank 22nd.

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The lofty PROE (seventh) and elevated overall pass rates (53.41%) from Minnesota make good on the promise by Kevin O’Connell coming into the season. So too does the increased emphasis on third-year, and budding star, wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who is being developed into a Cooper Kupp-like receiver capable of beating any coverages thrown at him. That said, Jefferson is not yet on Kupp’s level, with a 27.8% targets per route run rate that falls miles below. There is also nothing pointing to the run game as a relative weakness here, with the offensive line blocking to an above-average 4.85 adjusted line yards metric, also ranking in the top five in power success rate and open field yards created. We haven’t seen many breakaway runs from Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison, which is more of a reflection of those two than the run game or scheme. Most importantly, the Vikings play fast and actively try to score points with each possession.

After averaging a 73% snap rate starting the season, Dalvin Cook has not played over 63% of the offensive snaps over the past three weeks. That has made this backfield more of a 60/40 split with increased reliance on “1B” back Alexander Mattison. Cook’s 15.1 expected fantasy points per game rank only 15th in the league this year, further highlighting the shift in mindset with these two. Furthermore, Cook’s 15 targets rank only 24th at the position this year. Still, they remain on pace to match his aerial production over the previous four seasons in Minnesota (but are underwhelming, given what we heard heading into the year that his pass game role would grow under O’Connell). Basically, Dalvin’s rushes are decreasing while his pass game role remains stagnant. The matchup on the ground yields an average 4.305 net-adjusted line yards metric against a largely pass-funnel Dolphins defense (seventh in DVOA against the run and 32nd in DVOA against the pass).

Justin Jefferson’s 30.2% team target market share highlights how valuable he is to this offense and how elite he is at beating both man and zone coverages. He should see an increased rate of man coverage this week, with the Dolphins currently third in the league in man coverage rates. Good luck with that plan. Furthermore, the Dolphins are blitzing at above-average rates but have generated pressure at the third-lowest rate in the league, which could spell trouble against Kirk Cousins and his ability to pick apart an opposing defense when afforded a clean pocket. Adam Thielen continues to play virtually every snap and run a route on virtually every dropback, currently in a route at a 99.0% clip. His modest 19.2% target rate and gross 17.8% targets per route run rate indicate a “something’s got to give” situation – either he is washed and past his prime (possible, yet unlikely considering his high snap rate and route participation rates) or we should see some regression to the mean at some point. A matchup against heavier man coverage rates might not be when it happens, but something is going to give here soon. K.J. Osborn continues to operate as the clear WR3 and has a solid win rate against man coverages this year. The heavy emphasis on 11-personnel has meant his snap rate has routinely been in the 75%+ range, something that should remain rather sticky moving forward. Finally, Irv Smith is still splitting time with Johnny Mundt capping his ceiling in the process.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • Tied for the fourth highest game total in Week 6
  • MIN has covered the spread in just one game this year
  • MIN ranks 13th in fewest adj. seconds/play, MIA ranks 31st (per numberFire)
  • MIN ranks eighth in PROE, MIA ranks 11th
  • MIA ranks 25th in avg. time of possession, MIN ranks 18th
  • Both teams are tied at 12th in ppg
  • MIN defense ranks 14th in ppg allowed, MIA ranks 29th
  • MIN ranks 10th in ypg, MIA defense ranks 24th in ypg allowed
  • MIA ranks 16th in ypg, MIN defense ranks 24th in ypg allowed
  • PFF ranks the MIN offensive line at 12th, MIA ranks 31st
  • The MIN defense is ranked 19th by PFF, MIA ranks 27th

Kirk Cousins

  • Ninth in PFF passing grade
  • Ranks 37th in ADoT & 10th in on-target % (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • Cousins’s ($6,000) last four game logs (in chronological order): 27/46:221:1:3 // 24/41:260:2 // 25/38:273:1:1 // 32/41:296:1:1
  • Yet to hit 4x his Week 6 DK salary this year
  • Since Justin Jefferson was drafted in 2020, Cousins has hit 24+ DK pts 11 times
  • MIA ranks 30th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Three QBs have hit 275+ yds & 2+ TDs
  • Their DK scores: Joe Burrow 20.08 // Josh Allen 30.7 // Lamar Jackson 48.62

MIN Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Justin Jefferson 97.1% // Adam Thielen 96.5% // K.J. Osborn 77.7% // Irv Smith 53.8%
  • Target share: Jefferson 27.5% // Thielen 17.5% // Smith 12.5% // Osborn 10.5%
  • Redzone targets: Jefferson 5 // Thielen 5 // Smith 4 // Osborn 2
  • Jefferson ($8,900) ranks seventh in target share, 11th in air yard share, sixth in WOPR, fourth in YPRR, & ninth in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs: 6/12:48 // 3/6:14 // 10/13:147 & 1:3:1 // 12/13:154
  • His 25 DK ppg ranks third
  • Scored 4x his Week 6 DK salary four times in 40 career games
  • Thielen’s ($5,900) last four games: 4/7:52 // 6/8:61:1 // 8/9:72 // 4/7:27
  • He’s scored 4x his DK salary seven times in his 37 games since Jefferson was drafted
  • Osborn ($4,300) has one game of 6+ targets and/or 50+ yds (5/8:73:1 vs. DET in Week 3)
  • Scored 4x five times in 25 games
  • MIA ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Four WRs have hit 75+ yds, including two 100+ yds
  • Notable scores: Isaiah McKenzie 21.2 // Rashod Bateman 23.8 // Tee Higgins 28.4
  • Smith’s ($3,200) last four game logs: 5/8:36:1 // 2/6:32 // 3/4:23 // 4/5:42
  • Scored 15+ DK pts three times in 2020
  • MIA ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • TEs with 40+ yds: Isaiah Likely 43 // Mark Andrews 104
  • Only Andrews has hit 12+ DK pts (28.7)

Dalvin Cook

  • Snap share: Cook 64.7% // Alexander Mattison 35.3%
  • Rush share: Cook 73.6% // Mattison 26.3%
  • Target share: Cook 7.5% // Mattison 5.5%
  • Redzone touches: Cook 11 // Mattison 10
  • Cook ($7,500) ranks eighth in rush share, 19th in RYOE/carry, seventh in broken tackle %, & 23rd in high value touch % (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs: 6:17 & 4/6:19 // 17:96:1 // 20:76 & 2/2:10 // 18:94:2 & 2/2:27
  • His 14.3 DK ppg ranks 16th
  • Cook’s DK salary hit a three year low last week and has only increased by $200 for Week 6
  • He’s hit 30+ DK pts four times in 35 games since 2020
  • In 19 games on the road since 2020, he’s averaged 17.92 DK ppg
  • MIA ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Just two RBs have hit 60+ yds: Joe Mixon 61 // Breece Hall 97
  • Two have hit 75+ rec yds: Devin Singletary 78 // Hall 100
  • Notable scores: Singletary 24.1 // Hall 30.7

Skylar Thompson

  • Albeit with only 35 dropbacks, Thompson ranks 36th in PFF passing grade
  • He was under pressure on 60% of his dropbacks vs. NYJ in Week 5
  • In Week 5, he ranked 31st in Pass EPA/play, 32nd in adj. YPA, & 10th in on-target % (per 4for4)
  • Thompson’s $5,000 Week 6 DK salary is the cheapest of the week among starters
  • His Week 5 game log: 19/33:166:0:1
  • MIN ranks 20th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Two QBs have hit 275+ yds but none have thrown for multiple TDs
  • Only Jalen Hurts has scored 20+ DK pts (37.02)

MIA Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Jaylen Waddle 77% // Tyreek Hill 76.7% // Durham Smythe 58.4% // Trent Sherfield 51.5%
  • Target share: Hill 28.7% // Waddle 21.8% // Sherfield 7.5% // Mike Gesicki 6.9% // Smythe 4%
  • Redzone targets: Waddle 4 // Sherfield 4 // River Cracraft 3 // Gesicki 2 // Hill 1 // Smythe 1
  • Hill ($7,500) ranks sixth in target share, 20th in air yard share, 11th in WOPR, first in YPRR, & first in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs: 11/13:190:2 // 2/4:33 // 10/14:160 // 7/7:47
  • His 22 DK ppg ranks fourth
  • As of Wednesday afternoon, Dolphins are “optimistic” that Hill will play in Week 6
  • Waddle ($6,200) ranks third in YPRR & 19th in TPRR
  • His last four game logs: 11/19:171:2 // 4/6:102 // 2/5:39 // 3/3:23
  • His 18 DK ppg ranks 11th
  • Scored 4x his Week 6 DK salary four times in 21 games
  • MIN ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Six WRs have hit 60+ yds, including two sets of teammates: 2 DET WRs (Amon-Ra 73 & Josh Reynolds 96) // 3 PHI WRs (DeVonta Smith 80, A.J. Brown 69, & Quez Watkins 69)
  • None have hit 20 DK pts individually
  • Gesicki ($3,100) ranks eighth in ADoT
  • His last four game logs: 4/4:41:1 // 1/1:6 // 2/4:23 // 1/2:30
  • This is his lowest DK salary in three seasons
  • Scored 15+ DK pts seven times in 34 games since 2020
  • MIN ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • TEs with 40+ yds: Cole Kmet 45 // Dallas Goedert 82
  • Notable scores: T.J. Hockenson 10.8 // Goedert 13.2

MIA Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Raheem Mostert 59% // Chase Edmonds 39.7%
  • Rush share: Mostert 63.3% // Edmonds 32.2%
  • Target share: Edmonds 7.5% // Mostert 6.9%
  • Redzone touches: Mostert 7 // Edmonds 5
  • Mostert ($5,700) ranks 13th in rush share, 20th in RYOE/carry, & 10th in broken tackle % (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs: 11:51 & 3/3:28 // 8:11 // 15:69 & 2/3:12 // 18:113:1 & 1/3:9
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts with McDaniels six times in his last 27 games
  • Edmonds’s ($4,800) last four games: 5:33 & 1/3:8 // 6:21:2 & 1/1:6 // 5:6 & 1/1:6 // 1:1 & 0/2
  • His snaps have decreased in every week this year
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts four times in 34 games since 2020
  • MIN ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Two RBs have hit 80+ yds: Miles Sanders 80 // Jamaal Williams 87
  • No one else has hit 60
  • Two RBs have hit 40+ rec yds: AJ Dillon 46 // David Montgomery 62
  • Notable scores: Dillon 20.1 // Williams 24.7