Kickoff Sunday, Oct 16th 1:00pm Eastern

Patriots (
20.5) at
Browns (
23)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Patriots Run D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
21st DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
13th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
26th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
5th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
23rd DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
2nd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mJohnson86 >>
  • An interesting matchup of a pair of 2-3 teams who got to their records in very different ways.
  • Both teams are likely to skew very run heavy and both defenses rank bottom-5 in the NFL in rush defense DVOA.
  • New England’s quarterback situation is worth monitoring and may have some impact on their approach.
  • The Browns have lost three games by a combined six points, all blown leads in the 4th quarter.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

Bailey Zappe has acquitted himself nicely over the last two weeks in relief of the injured Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer. Bill Belichick is reluctant to divulge any information on the status of Jones heading into this matchup with the Browns, but it would be shocking if he played based on the reports of the injury when it first occurred. While some media members are trying to stir up some QB controversy for the Patriots, the reality is that Zappe has benefitted from a Packers team that didn’t step on the gas and force him to play from behind, and then a Lions team that laid a complete egg and didn’t force the Patriots to have to force the issue at all last week. Zappe has played well relative to expectations, no doubt, but it will be interesting to see if he can keep it up on the road against a team that has consistently controlled game flow and been efficient on offense.

The Browns defense is the shining light for the Patriots in this matchup. After a couple of solid seasons, the Browns now have a bottom-3 defensive unit in most metrics and have been specifically bad against the run where they rank dead last in both PFF grade and DVOA. The loss of Damien Harris hurts the ability of the Patriots to fully lean into their running game, but they will certainly lean heavily on Rhamondre Stevenson in this spot and should move the ball efficiently and keep Zappe in positive down-and-distance situations behind their 6th ranked run blocking unit up front. Early down runs that move the chains or set up manageable third and short situations will be the recipe for the Patriots here, with short area passing and hitches and slants used as a means of exploiting a Browns coverage unit that plays primarily zone concepts and blitzes at a bottom-10 rate in the league.

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

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By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Fourth lowest game total in Week 6
  • NE’s implied total of 19.75 is tied for the eighth lowest
  • The OVER is 4-1 in CLE games this season (tied for the best record with DET)
  • The UNDER is 3-2 in NE games
  • NE ranks 12th in fewest adj. seconds/play, CLE ranks 23rd (per numberFire)
  • NE ranks 25th in PROE, CLE ranks 30th
  • CLE leads the league in avg. time of possession, NE ranks 10th
  • CLE ranks sixth in ppg, NE’s defense ranks 12th in ppg allowed
  • NE ranks tied for 19th in ppg, CLE’s defense ranks 23rd
  • CLE ranks fourth in ypg, NE ranks 15th in ypg allowed
  • PFF ranks the CLE offensive line as the second best, NE’s line as the fourth best
  • The NE defense is ranked 10th best by PFF, CLE ranks 30th

Bailey Zappe

  • Albeit with only 40 dropbacks, Zappe ranks ninth in PFF passing grade
  • Facing DET’s league worst defense in Week 5, Zappe ranked seventh in Pass EPA/play, first in CPOE, 11th in adj. YPA, 12th in ADoT, and first in on-target % (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • His game logs: 10/15:99:1 // 17/21:188:1:1
  • Zappe’s $5,100 DK salary is the second lowest among starting QBs in Week 6
  • CLE ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Just one opposing QB has hit 250 yds (Flacco had 307)
  • Flacco was the only QB to hit 20+ DK pts so far

NE Passing Attack

  • Snap share: DeVante Parker 84.1% // Hunter Henry 75.1% // Nelson Agholor 52.4% // Jakobi Meyers 49.8%
  • Target share: Meyers 19.4% // Agholor 13.7% // Parker 11.5% // Henry 10.1%
  • Meyers ($5,300) ranks fourth in target share, eighth in air yard share, 22nd in ADoT, third in WOPR, second in YPRR, & fourth in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 4/6:55 // 9/13:95 // 7/8:111:1
  • His 18.6 DK ppg ranks eighth
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 6 DK salary twice in 20 games since Mac Jones was drafted
  • Agholor ($3,800) has hit 50+ yds once (6/6:110:1 @ PIT in Week 2)
  • That was his only 20+ DK pt game with Jones
  • Parker ($4,400) has hit 25+ yds once (5/10:156 vs. BAL in Week 3)
  • That was his only 20+ DK pt game since 2021
  • CLE ranks 18th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Six WRs have hit 50+ yds, including five that have hit 80+, and three that hit 100+
  • Notable scores: Robbie Anderson 24.2 // Mike Williams 26.4 // Garrett Wilson 33
  • Henry ($3,100) ranks sixth in ADoT
  • His last four game logs: 0/1:0 // 1/1:8 // 2/4:13 // 4/5:54
  • Scored 15+ DK pts three times in his last 21 games
  • CLE ranks second in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Three TEs have hit 40+ yds
  • None have scored 12+ DK pts

Rhamondre Stevenson

  • Stevenson ($6,000) ranks 23rd in rush share, sixth in RYOE/carry, fourth in broken tackle %, 22nd in high value touch %, 11th in target share, 15th in air yard share, 15th in ADoT, 11th in WOPR, & 15th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs: 9:47 & 1/2:4 // 12:73:1 & 4/5:28 // 14:66 & 4/5:23 // 25:161 & 2/2:14
  • His Week 6 DK salary is the highest of his career
  • Scored 4x that salary twice in 18 career games
  • CLE ranks 27th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Two RBs have hit 80+ yds (Tyler Allgeier 84 // Austin Ekeler 173)
  • No other RBs have hit 60 yds
  • Ekeler’s 38.9 DK pts in Week 5 were the only instance of a player hitting 20+ DK pts
  • His teammate, Joshua Kelley, put up the second highest score vs. CLE with 16.2

Jacoby Brissett

  • 11th in PFF passing grade
  • Third highest % of dropbacks where he’s had responsibility on the pressure allowed
  • Ranks 10th in Pass EPA/play (per 4for4)
  • Brissett’s ($5,400) last four game logs (chronological order): 22/27:229:1:1 // 21/31:220:2 // 21/35:234:0:1 // 21/34:230:1:1
  • Rushed for 30+ yds twice already
  • He’s yet to score 18 DK pts
  • NE ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Just two QBs have hit 250+ yds, none have hit 275
  • Only Lamar Jackson has scored 20+ DK pts vs. NE (he had 43.42 with 4 passing TDs plus a rushing stat line of 11:107:1)

CLE Passing Attack

  • Snap share: David Njoku 89.4% // Amari Cooper 83.8% // Donovan Peoples-Jones 83.8%
  • Target share: Cooper 26.7% // DPJ 19.3% // Njoku 18%
  • Redzone targets: Njoku 7 // Cooper 6 // DPJ 3
  • Cooper ($5,900) ranks 14th in target share, 12th in air yard share, 10th in WOPR, & 13th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs (in chronological order): 9/10:101:1 // 7/11:101:1 // 1/4:9 // 7/12:76:1
  • His 16.3 DK ppg ranks 14th
  • He’s scored 25+ DK pts six times in his last 40 games
  • DPJ’s ($3,900) last four game logs: 0/1:0 // 1/3:10 // 5/9:71 // 4/7:50
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts three times in 25 games
  • NE ranks 15th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Five WRs have hit 50+ yds, including three at 90+
  • Just one has scored 20+ DK pts (Allen Lazard 20.6)
  • Njoku ($4,000) ranks eighth in target share, 10th in air yard share, ninth in WOPR, & ninth in TPRR
  • His last four game logs: 3/5:32 // 9/10:89:1 // 5/7:73 // 6/6:88
  • His 11.3 DK ppg ranks eighth
  • Scored 4x his Week 6 DK salary twice since 2021
  • NE ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Only Mark Andrews has hit 25+ yds (8/13:89:2 in Week 3)
  • No other TEs have hit 15+ DK pts

CLE Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Nick Chubb 55.2% // Kareem Hunt 49.3%
  • Rush share: Chubb 62.8% // Hunt 36.5%
  • Target share: Hunt 9.9% // Chubb 5.6%
  • Redzone touches: Chubb 19 // Hunt 19
  • Chubb ($8,200) ranks 14th in rush share, first in RYOE/carry, & sixth in broken tackle % (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs: 17:87:3 & 3/3:26 // 23:113:1 // 19:118:1 // 17:134:2
  • His 24.6 DK ppg ranks first
  • His Week 6 DK salary is the highest of his career
  • Chubb’s scored 30+ DK pts six times since 2018
  • Hunt ($5,700) ranks 15th in RYOE/carry, 22nd in broken tackle %, fourth in high value touch %, 18th in target share, 18th in air yard share, 18th in ADoT, 19th in WOPR, 20th in YPRR, & 19th in TPRR
  • His last four games: 13:58 & 2/2:16 // 12:47 & 3/4:14 // 10:49 & 2/2:19 // 11:47:1 & 3/3:10
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts five times since joining the Browns (2019)
  • NE ranks fifth in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Just two RBs have hit 70 yds: AJ Dillon 73 // Aaron Jones 110
  • Three have hit 40+ rec yds: Najee Harris 40 // Chase Edmonds 40 // Craig Reynolds 68
  • None have hit 20 DK pts