Kickoff Thursday, Oct 13th 8:15pm Eastern

WFT (
19.5) at

Bears (
18.5)

Over/Under 38.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Commanders Run D
12th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
32nd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Bears Run D
11th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
18th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
27th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
23rd DVOA/26th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 6 begins with another one of these incredibly thrilling island game matchups as the Commanders visit the Bears. The game has a not-super-exciting total of just 38 points with Chicago favored by 1. What fun. But there’s money to be won!

Chicago

We’ll start with the Bears and the guy who is in contention for the best skill position play in the game in David Montgomery. Montgomery returned from missing the last two weeks and stepped back into a 72% snap rate, seeing 16 running back opportunities compared with just four for backup Khalil Herbert. I was expecting Herbert to be a little more involved than this, but it seems this is still Monty’s backfield. Montgomery is a home favorite three-down running back with a 51.1% route participation rate so far, and a solid 1.65 yards per route run, which is higher than Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall, and even Christian McCaffrey! The only downside is the matchup, as Washington ranks 6th in run defense DVOA but just 29th against the pass, creating a strength-on-strength matchup (or . . . I don’t know . . . stoppable force meets movable object?). Chicago wants to run the ball and that’s the strength of their offense (such as it is), while the Bears are ill-equipped to take advantage of the weakest parts of the Commander D. If we expect a low-scoring game, even a modest line like 60 rushing yards with a couple of catches could put Monty in the optimal lineup. Behind Monty, Herbert will mix in for a handful of touches, and he’s shown the ability to break big plays, so despite the high price he’s at least worth considering in your MME player pools.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, the Bears will run out Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet as full-time players, with Equanimeous St. Brown, Dante Pettis, and Ihmir Smith-Marsette in rotational roles. It’s hard to get excited about anyone on this low-volume passing attack in which Justin Fields is averaging just 17.6 pass attempts per game (lol), but at least Mooney has big per-play upside. Yay? Kmet is coming off his best game of the year with . . . wait for it . . . a 4/45/0 performance. And that’s his best game, really. At some point, he’ll probably find his way into the end zone. If there’s a time for the Chicago passing attack to get going, it’s here, against one of the league’s worst passing offenses, but we know volume is going to be low even if the Bears are playing from behind. Of the rotational guys, St. Brown saw his snaps drop down to 62% last week while Smith-Marsette saw his most playing time of the year, bouncing up from a previous high of 10% of the snaps to a new high of 38%. Because he didn’t do much with him, he’s still priced at just $600, but this does appear to be a player whose role is on the rise; that still isn’t likely to lead to much in the way of target volume but I’d view him as just as viable as St. Brown or Pettis, who are all basically GPP dart throw options. Fields himself, of course, has his floor buoyed by rushing upside, which gives him a strong chance of landing in the optimal lineup even if he has a poor game (like all of his games so far this year). 

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Overview:

  • Both teams are implied for just 19 pts
  • Using these parameters for the following trends, “16 Thursday games with totals under 40 since 2014”
  • Only 3 of the 32 QBs have scored 20+ DK pts: Wilson (21.4) // Dak (27.4) // Trubisky (27.9)
  • Fields has maxed out at 17 DK pts this year, while Wentz has scored 25+ DK pts three times already
  • 111 WRs have scored 2.46 fantasy pts below expectation (determined by salary), and have met expectation with just a 29.7% consistency
  • Only 8 of the 111 WRs have scored 20+ DK pts
  • Mooney has 27.5 DK pts total, while WAS WRs have games of 20+ DK pts: McLaurin (0), Samuel (2), Dotson (0), Brown (1)
  • Only 6 of the 72 RBs have scored 20+ DK pts
  • Monty has 0 games of 20+ DK pts in 2022, Gibson has scored fewer pts every week since his 20 in W1, and WAS is still sorting backfield touches between Robinson, Gibson, & McKissic

Justin Fields:

  • WAS has allowed the 7th most points through five games
  • Pts allowed by WAS: 22 // 36 // 24 // 25 // 21
  • CHI pts: 19 // 10 // 23 // 12 // 22
  • Fields has thrown between 11 & 22 pass att in every game
  • QBs vs WAS: Lawrence (275:1:1) // Goff (256:4) // Hurts (340:3) // Rush (223:2) // Tanny (181:1)
  • WAS ranks 29th in def pass DVOA
  • Hurts was held to just 20 yds on 9 rush att
  • Fields rush yds by game: 28 // 20:1 // 47 // 52 // 47

Darnell Mooney:

  • Mooney leads CHI with 21 tg (3, 2, 6, 5, 5)
  • Top WRs vs WAS: Kirk (117) // St Brown (116:2, 68) // Smith (169:1), Brown (85:1) // Lamb (97:1) // Westbrook (72)
  • Mooney production: 8 // -4 // 23 // 94 // 52
  • WAS has allowed the 5th most completed air yds

Cole Kmet:

  • Kmet’s targets: 1 // 1 // 3 // 3 // 4
  • Kmet’s production: 0 // 0 // 40 // 16 // 45
  • TEs vs WAS: Engram (28) // Hock (26) // Goedert (26:1) // Schultz (0) // Hooper (7)

CHI RBs:

  • RBs total yds vs WAS: JRob (69:2), Etienne (65) // Swift (87:1), JWill (60) // Sanders (44) // Zeke (81) // Henry (132:2)
  • Montgomery to Herbert rushes in games together: 17 to 9 // 15 to 4 // 12 to 4
  • Montgomery to Herbert targets in games together: 4 to 1 // 2 to 1 // 4 to 0
  • Montgomery’s full games: 50 // 136 // 82:1

Carson Wentz:

  • QB passing vs CHI: Lance (164) // Rodgers (234:2) // Mills (245:1:2) // Jones (71) // Cousins (296:1:1)
  • Wentz in 2022: 313:4:2 // 337:3:1 // 211:0 // 170:1:2 // 359:2:1
  • Pass def DVOA of WAS opponents: 9th // 30th // 3rd // 4th // 28th
  • JAC, PHI, & DAL all rank in the top-10 in pressure rate, while DET & TEN do not
  • CHI ranks 15th in pass def DVOA and 7th in pressure rate (PFR)
  • WAS pts: 28 // 27 // 8 // 10 // 17
  • CHI pts allowed: 10 // 27 // 20 // 20 // 29

WAS WRs:

  • McLaurin has 75+ yds in 3 of 5 games
  • Samuel has 6-8 rec in 4 of 5 games, but 75+ yds just once
  • In relief of the injured Dotson, Brown caught 2 TDs for 105 yds on his 4 tg
  • WRs with 50+ yds vs CHI: Jennings (62) // Watkins (93) // Moore (63) // Jefferson (154)
  • CHI has allowed the 3rd fewest completed air yds in the league
  • Bates & Turner each received 3 tg in the absence of Logan Thomas, but Bates led in yds 39 to 0

WAS RBs:

  • Touches in Robinson’s first game: Robinson (9, 0) // Gibson (3, 4) // McKissic (0, 7)
  • RB yds vs CHI: SF (71) // GB (237:2) // HOU (131:1) // NYG (180) // MIN (161:2)
  • WAS RBs yds by game: 158 // 104:1 // 80:1 // 119 // 98
  • 5 RBs have 20+ rec yds vs CHI
  • 4 RBs have 80+ rush yds vs CHI

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 16th 1:00pm Eastern

49ers (
24.5) at

Falcons (
21)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
49ers Run D
18th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
9th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
3rd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
24th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Falcons Run D
16th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
3rd DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
29th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow>>
  • Both teams are in the bottom five in pass attempts per game.
  • Both teams average under 60 offensive plays per game.
  • There is very little to get excited about from a fantasy perspective here, considering the low expected volume and low game total.
  • San Francisco pieces always carry high theoretical upside due to unreal per-touch efficiency but the volume keeps the floors on the ground (the ceiling is the roof).
  • Two of the bottom three teams in Pass Rate Over Expectation through five weeks.
  • Six impact defensive players missed practice for the 49ers on Wednesday, including Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw, Emmanuel Mosely, and Jimmie Ward. OT Trent Williams also missed practice.
  • Kyle Pitts returned to a limited practice on Wednesday after missing last week’s game.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

Everything starts with the defense in San Francisco, which makes sense when your unit has allowed the fewest yards per drive, fewest points per drive, and lowest drive success rate, all by significant margins. Consider this, their 1.45 points per drive value on offense ranks 30th in the league, and they still rank sixth in net points per drive! They have paired that stalwart defense with a slow pace of play on offense to mask the inefficiencies of their quarterback, leading to a 22nd-ranked 59.8 offensive plays per game. Injuries have also played a part in their 2022 path after the team lost its starting running back and starting quarterback within the first 17 offensive plays in Week 1 and Week 2, respectively. Speaking of the inefficiencies of their quarterback, here are some of Jimmy Garoppolo’s ranks in various efficiency metrics so far this year: 33rd in clean pocket completion percentage, 29th in true completion percentage, 24th in accuracy rating, 21st in QBR, 32nd in completion percentage versus zone coverages, and 28th in expected fantasy points per game. Yikes! Trey Lance might not have been it for the 49ers this season, but Jimmy Garoppolo definitely wasn’t it. Yet, the 49ers find themselves atop the NFC West with a record of 3-2 after losing to the Bears in the Week 1 waterworks game with Trey Lance at quarterback and losing to the Broncos on the road at Mile High by a score of 11-10 in Week 3.

The running back situation has devolved into an alpha role that is more beta in snap rate, with Jeff Wilson Jr. leading the way in weekly snap rate and workload after significant injuries to both Elijah Mitchell and Tyrion Davis-Price. That said, Wilson has played a whopping five more offensive snaps than fullback Kyle Juszczyk over the previous four games, while Juszczyk has a combined 10 running back opportunities over five games. That should help to explain the emphasis on heavy offensive alignments from this team, a team that plays from 11-personnel at the lowest rate in the league. All of that to say, even though Jeff Wilson is the unquestioned lead back in San Francisco, we can’t really expect substantially more than the 18 running back opportunities he has averaged over his four starts this year. The matchup on the ground yields a well above-average 4.64 net-adjusted line yards metric against an opponent largely considered a run-funnel defense. Tevin Coleman has rejoined the fray in San Francisco, hilariously sniping two touchdowns on 19 offensive snaps in Week 5, which led to his ultimate signing back to the active roster on Wednesday of this week. That could serve to further lessen the theoretical upside of Wilson after the alpha back had this backfield virtually to himself over the previous two weeks (rookie Jordan Mason and Tevin Coleman combined for only six offensive snaps through Weeks 3 and 4). Finally, all backs in the San Francisco backfield should largely be thought of as yardage-and-touchdown backs considering the team has targeted the position only 19 times through five weeks, which is tied with the Bears for the third fewest in the league.

The 49ers attempt only 27.6 passes per game through five weeks, which ranks 28th in the league and also makes a good deal of sense considering the composition of their team. With that consideration understood, there are very few teams that can push San Francisco into increased pass volume, and Atlanta likely isn’t one of them. That should leave Jimmy Garoppolo in his standard range of 28-30 pass attempts, similar to his range in all three starts thus far. What’s gross is the fact that he has yet to complete more than 18 passes in a game this season. The counter to the “Jimmy G is inefficient” argument is the insane efficiency of the 49ers pass-catchers, highlighted by the unreal, and likely unsustainable, 14.47 yards per completion value over the previous two weeks. All of George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk are continually towards the top of the league in yards after the catch per reception and other efficiency metrics, which highlights the dynamism and upside-generating scheme. Basically, each of these pass-catchers has a low floor due to the low overall pass volume of the offense, but they all carry equally as high ceilings due to the unreal per-touch efficiency. Deebo will also likely mix in a handful of rush attempts. Situational wide receivers Jauan Jennings and Ray-Ray McCloud III and pass-blocking tight ends Charlie Woerner and Ross Dwelley can be left out of fantasy consideration altogether.

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

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Overview:

  • 5th highest total on main slate (44.5)
  • SF D is tied for 1st in ppg allowed (12.2) 
  • They’re one of two teams that haven’t had 20 or more pts scored against them (DAL)
  • They allow the least total yds/g (249.2)
  • ATL D allows the 10th most DK pts or worse to every position group
  • SF D allows the 10th fewest DK pts or better to every position group
  • SF is the only team in the NFC West with a winning record
  • They’re tied for the 2nd best point differential in the league (+47) (tied with PHI, BUF is 1st at +97)

Jimmy Garoppolo

  •  Although he only played 3 qts WK2, Jimmy has increased his pass yds every week (154, 211, 239, 253)
  • 9 straight games started w/o 20 DK pts, 6 w/o 20+ completions, & 6 w/o 300+ pass yds
  • DK price in starts this season: ($5.5k, $5.6k, $5.4k, $5.5k this week)
  • Jimmy has increased his DK pts in every start: (10.4, 13.9, 18.02)
  • ATL allows the 9th most DK pts/g to QBs (20.8)

SF WRs

  • Deebo’s rush attempts have been on a decline (8, 4, 5, 2, 2)
  • His targets steady (9, 7, 8, 6, 8)
  • Season high target count last week with 9 but only caught 2
  • He’s broke 3x salary just once (13.6, 14.7, 12.9, 26.7, 11.2)
  • Deebo has 3 receptions & 2 rushes over 20 yds
  • Tgt Shares: (Deebo 28%) // (Aiyuk 20%) // (Jennings 13%)
  • ATL allows the 6th most DK pts to WRs (41.5)

SF RBs

  • Snaps last week: (Wilson 38) // (Coleman 19)
  • Coleman’s 19 snaps: 5 RZ touches (2 receptions & 3 rushes) // 11 touches // 21.7 DK pts
  • Coleman had 1 rush & 1 receiving TD // Wilson had 1 rush TD
  • Wilson’s DK pts have went up every week (5.0, 12.3, 12.6, 13.4, 23.2)
  • Last week was his first game scoring 3x salary (4.2x) & first over 20 DK pts (23.2)
  • His price went up $700 // This week: (3x salary is 18.6 DK pts) // ( 4x is 24.8)
  • ATL allows the 10th most DK pts/g to RBs (25.0)

SF TEs

  • Kittle has 15 tgts in 3 games played (6, 4, 5)
  • DK price is down $800 on DK since WK1 (DNP) & the cheapest its been all season ($5.1k)
  • FD price is down $800 since last week ($6.5k, season high) & the cheapest its been all season 
  • Hasn’t broke 63 receiving yds in 9 straight games
  • Last season he had 3 games over 24 DK pts (37.1, 42.6, 24.1)
  • ATL allows the 4th most DK pts/g to TEs (17.6)

Marcus Mariota

  • SF D leads the league in sacks (21, 4.2/g)
  • They have 13 over their last 2 games
  • Nick Bosa is questionable this week, he’s T-1st in sacks (6.0)
  • ATL ranks T-19th in sacks allowed (2.4)
  • They allowed 5 last week to TB
  • SF ranks 3rd in pass yds/g allowed (177.8)
  • Only Stafford & Mayfield have topped 200 pass yards against SF
  • Mariotta has topped 200 pass yds in 2 of 5 games
  • 3x+ DK salary in 3 of 5 games (20.8, 17.6, 18.0)
  • ATL ranks 31st in pass attempts/g (24.6), 30th in pass yds/g (166.8), & 24th in pass TDs/g (.8)
  • SF D allows the fewest DK pts/g to QBs (9.9) facing Mayfield (7.6), Stafford (8.8), Wilson (9.1), Smith (7.8), & Fields (14.7)

ATL WRs

  • London (Q) tgts: (7, 12, 6, 7, 7) // tgt share: (33%)
  • DK pt log: (7.5, 3.7, 14.4, 24.6, 12.4)
  • Zaccheaus has 5 catches over 20 yds, avgs a team leading 17.8 yds/catch, has caught 12 of 14 tgts, & has 2 TDs (same as London)
  • He’s yet to see over 4 tgts in a game: (4, 2, 2, 2, 4)
  • SF D allows the 10th least DK pts/g to WRs (30.8)

ATL RBs

  • Snaps last week with Patterson on IR: (Allgeier 39) // (Williams 17) // (Huntley 16)
  • Allgeier’s rush attempts didn’t really go up much (10, 6, 10, 13 last week)
  • Huntley’s went down from 10 to 8 & he scored
  • Avery saw 3 attempts & he scored
  • ATL ranks 4th in rush attempts/g (32.4), 3rd in rush yds/g (164.6), 2nd in rush play percent (54.6%), & 3rd in rush TDs/g (1.4)
  • SF D allows the 6th fewest DK pts/g to RBs (18.9)

Kyle Pitts

  • Tgts: (7, 3, 8, 4) // Catch rate: (45%)
  • DK pts: (DNP, 3.5, 13.7, 3.9, 3.9)
  • His price has steadily decreased from $5.7k WK1 (season high) to $4.2k this week (season low)
  • SF allows the 2nd least DK pts/g to TEs (5.8)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 16th 1:00pm Eastern

Patriots (
20.5) at

Browns (
23)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Patriots Run D
5th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
20th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
25th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
29th DVOA/25th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
3rd DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
14th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
2nd DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
28th DVOA/27th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mJohnson86 >>
  • An interesting matchup of a pair of 2-3 teams who got to their records in very different ways.
  • Both teams are likely to skew very run heavy and both defenses rank bottom-5 in the NFL in rush defense DVOA.
  • New England’s quarterback situation is worth monitoring and may have some impact on their approach.
  • The Browns have lost three games by a combined six points, all blown leads in the 4th quarter.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

Bailey Zappe has acquitted himself nicely over the last two weeks in relief of the injured Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer. Bill Belichick is reluctant to divulge any information on the status of Jones heading into this matchup with the Browns, but it would be shocking if he played based on the reports of the injury when it first occurred. While some media members are trying to stir up some QB controversy for the Patriots, the reality is that Zappe has benefitted from a Packers team that didn’t step on the gas and force him to play from behind, and then a Lions team that laid a complete egg and didn’t force the Patriots to have to force the issue at all last week. Zappe has played well relative to expectations, no doubt, but it will be interesting to see if he can keep it up on the road against a team that has consistently controlled game flow and been efficient on offense.

The Browns defense is the shining light for the Patriots in this matchup. After a couple of solid seasons, the Browns now have a bottom-3 defensive unit in most metrics and have been specifically bad against the run where they rank dead last in both PFF grade and DVOA. The loss of Damien Harris hurts the ability of the Patriots to fully lean into their running game, but they will certainly lean heavily on Rhamondre Stevenson in this spot and should move the ball efficiently and keep Zappe in positive down-and-distance situations behind their 6th ranked run blocking unit up front. Early down runs that move the chains or set up manageable third and short situations will be the recipe for the Patriots here, with short area passing and hitches and slants used as a means of exploiting a Browns coverage unit that plays primarily zone concepts and blitzes at a bottom-10 rate in the league.

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • Fourth lowest game total in Week 6
  • NE’s implied total of 19.75 is tied for the eighth lowest
  • The OVER is 4-1 in CLE games this season (tied for the best record with DET)
  • The UNDER is 3-2 in NE games
  • NE ranks 12th in fewest adj. seconds/play, CLE ranks 23rd (per numberFire)
  • NE ranks 25th in PROE, CLE ranks 30th
  • CLE leads the league in avg. time of possession, NE ranks 10th
  • CLE ranks sixth in ppg, NE’s defense ranks 12th in ppg allowed
  • NE ranks tied for 19th in ppg, CLE’s defense ranks 23rd
  • CLE ranks fourth in ypg, NE ranks 15th in ypg allowed
  • PFF ranks the CLE offensive line as the second best, NE’s line as the fourth best
  • The NE defense is ranked 10th best by PFF, CLE ranks 30th

Bailey Zappe

  • Albeit with only 40 dropbacks, Zappe ranks ninth in PFF passing grade
  • Facing DET’s league worst defense in Week 5, Zappe ranked seventh in Pass EPA/play, first in CPOE, 11th in adj. YPA, 12th in ADoT, and first in on-target % (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • His game logs: 10/15:99:1 // 17/21:188:1:1
  • Zappe’s $5,100 DK salary is the second lowest among starting QBs in Week 6
  • CLE ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Just one opposing QB has hit 250 yds (Flacco had 307)
  • Flacco was the only QB to hit 20+ DK pts so far

NE Passing Attack

  • Snap share: DeVante Parker 84.1% // Hunter Henry 75.1% // Nelson Agholor 52.4% // Jakobi Meyers 49.8%
  • Target share: Meyers 19.4% // Agholor 13.7% // Parker 11.5% // Henry 10.1%
  • Meyers ($5,300) ranks fourth in target share, eighth in air yard share, 22nd in ADoT, third in WOPR, second in YPRR, & fourth in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 4/6:55 // 9/13:95 // 7/8:111:1
  • His 18.6 DK ppg ranks eighth
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 6 DK salary twice in 20 games since Mac Jones was drafted
  • Agholor ($3,800) has hit 50+ yds once (6/6:110:1 @ PIT in Week 2)
  • That was his only 20+ DK pt game with Jones
  • Parker ($4,400) has hit 25+ yds once (5/10:156 vs. BAL in Week 3)
  • That was his only 20+ DK pt game since 2021
  • CLE ranks 18th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Six WRs have hit 50+ yds, including five that have hit 80+, and three that hit 100+
  • Notable scores: Robbie Anderson 24.2 // Mike Williams 26.4 // Garrett Wilson 33
  • Henry ($3,100) ranks sixth in ADoT
  • His last four game logs: 0/1:0 // 1/1:8 // 2/4:13 // 4/5:54
  • Scored 15+ DK pts three times in his last 21 games
  • CLE ranks second in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Three TEs have hit 40+ yds
  • None have scored 12+ DK pts

Rhamondre Stevenson

  • Stevenson ($6,000) ranks 23rd in rush share, sixth in RYOE/carry, fourth in broken tackle %, 22nd in high value touch %, 11th in target share, 15th in air yard share, 15th in ADoT, 11th in WOPR, & 15th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs: 9:47 & 1/2:4 // 12:73:1 & 4/5:28 // 14:66 & 4/5:23 // 25:161 & 2/2:14
  • His Week 6 DK salary is the highest of his career
  • Scored 4x that salary twice in 18 career games
  • CLE ranks 27th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Two RBs have hit 80+ yds (Tyler Allgeier 84 // Austin Ekeler 173)
  • No other RBs have hit 60 yds
  • Ekeler’s 38.9 DK pts in Week 5 were the only instance of a player hitting 20+ DK pts
  • His teammate, Joshua Kelley, put up the second highest score vs. CLE with 16.2

Jacoby Brissett

  • 11th in PFF passing grade
  • Third highest % of dropbacks where he’s had responsibility on the pressure allowed
  • Ranks 10th in Pass EPA/play (per 4for4)
  • Brissett’s ($5,400) last four game logs (chronological order): 22/27:229:1:1 // 21/31:220:2 // 21/35:234:0:1 // 21/34:230:1:1
  • Rushed for 30+ yds twice already
  • He’s yet to score 18 DK pts
  • NE ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Just two QBs have hit 250+ yds, none have hit 275
  • Only Lamar Jackson has scored 20+ DK pts vs. NE (he had 43.42 with 4 passing TDs plus a rushing stat line of 11:107:1)

CLE Passing Attack

  • Snap share: David Njoku 89.4% // Amari Cooper 83.8% // Donovan Peoples-Jones 83.8%
  • Target share: Cooper 26.7% // DPJ 19.3% // Njoku 18%
  • Redzone targets: Njoku 7 // Cooper 6 // DPJ 3
  • Cooper ($5,900) ranks 14th in target share, 12th in air yard share, 10th in WOPR, & 13th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs (in chronological order): 9/10:101:1 // 7/11:101:1 // 1/4:9 // 7/12:76:1
  • His 16.3 DK ppg ranks 14th
  • He’s scored 25+ DK pts six times in his last 40 games
  • DPJ’s ($3,900) last four game logs: 0/1:0 // 1/3:10 // 5/9:71 // 4/7:50
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts three times in 25 games
  • NE ranks 15th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Five WRs have hit 50+ yds, including three at 90+
  • Just one has scored 20+ DK pts (Allen Lazard 20.6)
  • Njoku ($4,000) ranks eighth in target share, 10th in air yard share, ninth in WOPR, & ninth in TPRR
  • His last four game logs: 3/5:32 // 9/10:89:1 // 5/7:73 // 6/6:88
  • His 11.3 DK ppg ranks eighth
  • Scored 4x his Week 6 DK salary twice since 2021
  • NE ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Only Mark Andrews has hit 25+ yds (8/13:89:2 in Week 3)
  • No other TEs have hit 15+ DK pts

CLE Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Nick Chubb 55.2% // Kareem Hunt 49.3%
  • Rush share: Chubb 62.8% // Hunt 36.5%
  • Target share: Hunt 9.9% // Chubb 5.6%
  • Redzone touches: Chubb 19 // Hunt 19
  • Chubb ($8,200) ranks 14th in rush share, first in RYOE/carry, & sixth in broken tackle % (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs: 17:87:3 & 3/3:26 // 23:113:1 // 19:118:1 // 17:134:2
  • His 24.6 DK ppg ranks first
  • His Week 6 DK salary is the highest of his career
  • Chubb’s scored 30+ DK pts six times since 2018
  • Hunt ($5,700) ranks 15th in RYOE/carry, 22nd in broken tackle %, fourth in high value touch %, 18th in target share, 18th in air yard share, 18th in ADoT, 19th in WOPR, 20th in YPRR, & 19th in TPRR
  • His last four games: 13:58 & 2/2:16 // 12:47 & 3/4:14 // 10:49 & 2/2:19 // 11:47:1 & 3/3:10
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts five times since joining the Browns (2019)
  • NE ranks fifth in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Just two RBs have hit 70 yds: AJ Dillon 73 // Aaron Jones 110
  • Three have hit 40+ rec yds: Najee Harris 40 // Chase Edmonds 40 // Craig Reynolds 68
  • None have hit 20 DK pts

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 16th 1:00pm Eastern

Jets (
18.5) at

Packers (
26)

Over/Under 44.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jets Run D
17th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
25th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
4th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
10th DVOA/5th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
19th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
32nd DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
17th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
31st DVOA/30th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • This is a matchup of the fastest and slowest paced teams.
  • The Packers play calling is highly game flow dependent.
  • Both running games are set up for success.
  • Breece Hall is taking over the Jets backfield and is mispriced for his role and talent.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The 3-2 Jets. Is that a typo? Nope, just checked, the Jets are really 3-2. They’ll let anyone have a winning record these days. Unfortunately for Robert Saleh’s Jets, their record is deceptive, having lost decidedly to the Bengals/Ravens, while recording victories against the Browns (epic collapse), the Steelers (played the first half with Mitch Trubisky), and the Dolphins (third-string QB). The Jets first two wins were by a combined five points, before finally getting a win going away against the Dolphins using Skylar “Days of our Lives” Thompson at QB. The Jets are lucky to be 3-2 but if you ask Robert Saleh, they’ve been “punching people in the mouth.”

One thing Saleh does appear to have figured out is that Zach Wilson isn’t very good at football. The Jets want to run the ball regardless of who is playing QB, but it’s clear they are more willing to open things up with Joe Flacco. The Jets called run/pass splits of 17/59, 20/44, and 20/52 in their first three games. In the past two games with Wilson, the same splits have been 29/36 and 33/21. Game flow has something to do with those numbers but the change at QB more fully explains the switch in offensive philosophy. The Jets are going to be a run-heavy team with Wilson under center, especially if they can keep the game within two scores.   

The Jets have played at the fastest overall pace in the league to start the year. Is that a typo? Nope, just checked, the Jets really are playing at the fastest pace in the NFL. They’ll let anyone play fast these days. The Jets are living up to their name and flying to the line of scrimmage, playing in the top ten in pace in all situations. In particular, it stands out how fast they’re playing when ahead (2nd in total pace), which shows the Jets are going to play with tempo regardless of the score. 

The Packers have been solid against the pass (11th in DVOA) but trampled on the ground (30th in DVOA). The Packers secondary is led by Jaire Alexander who once again holds a top 25 position grade per PFF. The rest of the secondary is more solid than spectacular but there is no reason to attack the relative strength of a defense while they grade out so poorly against the run. The Packers present as a run funnel defense that forces teams to pass by taking a lead. Saleh is hoping to keep things close and hide Zach Wilson. Expect a “mouth punching” game plan from the Jets for as long as possible, with a chance they stay run heavy even down by multiple scores.

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • Third highest game total in Week 6
  • GB’s implied total of 26.5 is the third highest
  • NYJ’s implied total of 19.5 is tied for the fifth lowest
  • GB -7 is the third widest spread
  • NYJ ranks seventh in fewest adj. seconds/play, GB ranks 32nd (per numberFire)
  • NYJ ranks 20th in PROE, GB ranks 21st
  • GB ranks seventh in avg. time of possession, NYJ ranks 21st
  • NYJ ranks 11th in ppg, GB defense ranks 11th in ppg allowed
  • GB ranks 22nd in ppg, NYJ defense ranks tied for 18th in ppg allowed
  • GB ranks ninth in ypg, NYJ defense ranks 10th in ypg allowed
  • NYJ ranks 12th in ypg, GB defense ranks fifth in ypg allowed
  • PFF ranks the GB offensive line as the fifth best, NYJ ranked at 25th
  • The GB defense is ranked 12th by PFF, NYJ ranks 14th

Zach Wilson

  • 10th in PFF passing grade
  • 30th in PFF grade when under pressure
  • Ranks 12th in Pass EPA/play, 30th in CPOE, & sixth in ADoT (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • Wilson’s ($5,300) game logs (in chronological order): 18/36:252:1:2 // 14/21:210 (plus a rushing TD)
  • Scored 20+ DK pts three times in 15 games, but yet to hit 25 pts
  • GB ranks fourth in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Two QBs have hit 275+ yds
  • None have scored 20 DK pts

NYJ Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Elijah Moore 86.1% // Tyler Conklin 84.8% // Corey Davis 76.7% // Garrett Wilson 60.9%
  • Target share: Wilson 20.1% // Conklin 14% // Davis 13.6% // Moore 13.6%
  • Redzone targets: Wilson 9 // Davis 3 // Moore 3 // Braxton Berrios 2 // Conklin 1
  • Wilson ($5,000) ranks 14th in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs: 8/14:102:2 // 6/11:60 // 2/6:41 // 3/4:27
  • Moore ($4,900) ranks seventh in ADoT
  • His last four game logs: 3/5:41 // 4/9:49 // 3/4:53 // 1/4:11
  • Scored 4x his Week 6 DK salary three times in 15 games
  • Davis ($4,800) ranks sixth in ADoT
  • His last four game logs: 2/4:83:1 // 2/5:27 // 5/6:74:1 // 2/4:38
  • Scored 4x his DK salary twice in 14 games since 2021
  • GB ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Three WRs have hit 75+ yds
  • Notable scores: Russell Gage 25.7 // Justin Jefferson 42.4
  • Conklin’s ($3,400) last four game logs: 6/9:40 // 8/8:84 // 3/5:52 // 0/1:0
  • His 9.2 DK ppg ranks 12th
  • Scored 15+ DK pts three times since 2021
  • GB ranks third in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Only Cameron Brate has hit 25+ yds (5/6:52)
  • None have hit 12 DK pts

NYJ Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Michael Carter 51.8% // Breece Hall 51%
  • Rush share: Hall 54.4% // Carter 45.6%
  • Target share: Hall 13.6% // Carter 9.8%
  • Redzone touches: Hall 13 // Carter 10
  • Hall ($5,800) ranks 21st in rush share, 11th in RYOE/carry, 15th in broken tackle %, eighth in high value touch %, ninth in target share, first in air yard share, first in ADoT, third in WOPR, first in YPRR, & third in TPRR (per 4for4, min 50 carries)
  • His last four game logs: 7:50 & 1/1:10:1 // 8:39 & 6/11:53 // 17:66:1 & 2/6:12 // 18:97:1 & 2/2:100
  • His 17 DK ppg ranks ninth
  • Among RBs with just 30 carries, Carter ($5,000) ranks eighth in broken tackle %, fourth in high value touch %, 16th in target share, 17th in air yard share, 19th in ADoT, 17th in WOPR, 17th in YPRR, & 12th in TPRR
  • His last four games: 7:23 & 5/5:27 // 11:39 & 1/2:7 // 9:15 & 2/3:14 // 10:21:2 & 2/2:12
  • Carter’s snaps have declined in each week this season
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts just once in 19 games (32.2 vs. CIN in Week 8 2021)
  • GB ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Five RBs have hit 60+ yds: Rhamondre Stevenson 66 // Saquon Barkley 70 // Damien Harris 86 // Dalvin Cook 90 // David Montgomery 122
  • None have hit 20 DK pts

Aaron Rodgers

  • Eighth in PFF passing grade
  • Ninth in PFF grade when under pressure
  • Ranks 11th in CPOE & 32nd in ADoT (per 4for4)
  • NYJ kept Skylar Thompson under pressure on 60% of his dropbacks in Week 5
  • Rodgers’s ($6,100) last four game logs: 19/25:234:2 // 27/35:255:2:1 // 21/35:251:2:1 // 25/39:222:2
  • Yet to hit 20 DK pts this year
  • Under LaFleur, in 30 home games as a favorite, Rodgers has scored 4x his Week 6 DK salary 11 times
  • NYJ ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Just one QB has hit 230+ yds (Joe Burrow had 275)
  • None have scored 25+ DK pts

GB Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Allen Lazard 73.4% // Romeo Doubs 73.1% // Randall Cobb 45% // Robert Tonyan 44.3%
  • Target share: Doubs 16.8% // Lazard 14.5% // Cobb 14.5% // Tonyan 11.6%
  • Redzone targets: Doubs 5 // Tonyan 5 // Lazard 3 // Cobb 1
  • Lazard ($6,000) ranks 14th in air yard share, 13th in ADoT, & 24th in WOPR (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs: 2/3:13:1 // 4/6:45:1 // 6/8:116 // 4/8:35:1
  • Scored 4x his Week 6 DK salary twice in 46 games with LaFleur
  • Cobb ($4,400) ranks 12th in YPRR & 23rd in TPRR
  • His last four game logs: 3/3:37 // 2/2:57 // 3/4:42 // 7/13:99
  • Scored 4x his DK salary twice in last 16 games
  • NYJ ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Four WRs have hit 90+ yds
  • Notable scores: Devin Duvernay 21.4 // Tyler Boyd 23.5
  • Tonyan ($3,600) ranks 12th in TPRR
  • His last four games: 2/2:11 // 6/7:37 // 2/2:22:1 // 4/4:23
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts five times since 2020 (33 games)
  • NYJ ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • TEs with 40+ yds: Harrison Bryant 45 // Mark Andrews 52 // Pat Freiermuth 85
  • Notable scores: Andrews 10.2 // Freiermuth 15.5

GB Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Aaron Jones 63.3% // AJ Dillon 50.5%
  • Rush share: Dillon 50.8% // Jones 49.2%
  • Target share: Jones 11% // Dillon 8.1%
  • Redzone touches: Jones 12 // Dillon 10
  • Jones ($7,600) ranks second in RYOE/carry, 12th in broken tackle %, 13th in high value touch %, 13th in target share, 19th in air yard share, 16th in ADoT, 14th in WOPR, 22nd in YPRR, & 23rd in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs: 15:132:1 & 3/3:38:1 // 12:36 & 3/4:11 // 16:110 & 3/4:5 // 13:63 & 2/3:17
  • His 15.8 DK ppg ranks 14th
  • He’s scored 30+ DK pts three times since Dillon joined the team (2020)
  • In 19 games as a home favorite since 2020, he’s averaged 20.7 DK ppg
  • Dillon ($5,600) ranks 24th in rush share, 24th in RYOE/carry, 17th in broken tackle %, & 24th in broken tackles
  • His last four games: 18:61 & 1/3:6 // 12:32 & 2/3:6 // 17:73 & 1/2:11 // 6:34
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts five times in 31 games
  • NYJ ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Three RBs have hit 70+ yds: Najee Harris 74 // Nick Chubb 87 // Raheem Mostert 113
  • Notable scores: Mostert 22.2 // Chubb 32.3

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 16th 1:00pm Eastern

Jaguars (
19.75) at

Colts (
21.25)

Over/Under 41.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jaguars Run D
1st DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
6th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
8th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
19th DVOA/14th Yards per pass
Colts Run D
24th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
24th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
10th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • Jonathan Taylor missed practice on Wednesday after missing Week 5, which is typically not a good sign for a return to game action.
  • Nyheim Hines was limited in practice Wednesday as he works his way through the league’s five-step concussion protocol. The Colts last played on Thursday, so the additional three days is a good sign for Hines’ potential to return in time for Week 6.
  • Colts LB Shaquille Leonard has had a tough go this season, returning for only 30% of the snaps in Week 4 before suffering a scary head/neck/back injury that sidelined him once again. He is currently listed as DNP on Wednesday with concussion/nose/back injuries.
  • Jacksonville ranks third in net points per drive while Indianapolis ranks 31st.
  • The Jaguars hold the league’s sixth fastest first half pace of play and 31st-ranked pace of play with a lead of seven or more points, indicating an unwillingness to try and put games away and instead an attempt to inch towards a win.
  • The Colts rank dead last in points per game at 13.8, which is somewhat hilarious considering the state of Chicago, Denver, Pittsburgh, and Houston, to name a few.
  • Both teams are tied in adjusted line yards on offense at 3.80, which ranks 30th in the league ahead of only Washington.
  • Jacksonville beat Indianapolis 24-0 in their first meeting in Week 3. Playing the same divisional opponent twice within a month is silly, NFL, do better.

How JACKSONVILLE Will Try To Win ::

The Jaguars are attacking games in the first half and running with their tail between their legs in the second half and/or with a lead this season, trying to limp to victory. That has bitten them twice already this season in losses to the Eagles and Texans. By the numbers, the Jaguars have been a very balanced offense this year, with an expected pass rate almost exactly matching their actual pass rate through five weeks. Their true pass rate of 57.89% ranks 20th in the league while their ninth-ranked values in both offensive and defensive points per drive has them at third overall in net points per drive. Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence has appeared capable this season, with the offensive scheme not doing him any favors. His 7.8 intended air yards per pass attempt ranks 16th in the league while his 3.5 completed air yards per pass attempt ranks 19th. That said, the team has attempted only 31 passes from either RPO or play action, instead running a more “straight up” offense.

Things don’t get any rosier through their run game, one that is running behind an offensive line blocking to only 3.80 adjusted line yards, ranks 30th in power success rate, and ranks dead last in stuffed rate. Their backs are exceeding early expectations, combining to run for 4.45 running back yards per carry, which likely signals a regression to the mean at some point this year, particularly considering the team runs a relatively straightforward offense in scheme and design. James Robinson surprised most by not only making it back from a torn Achilles but exhibiting above average burst and efficiency metrics over the first three games of the year. That has been a different story over the last two games, as he has simultaneously seen his efficiency decline and ceded more snaps and opportunities to Travis Etienne. Expect some form of committee here, with recent trends indicating a 60/40 split in favor of Etienne. Consider this – Robinson averaged 20 running back opportunities over the first three weeks and has since been held to an average of 10 over the previous two weeks. One of those games came against the stout defense of the Eagles while one came against the relative sieve in the Texans, indicating what should be a changing of the guard in Jacksonville.

The Jaguars run primarily a straight-up, 11-personnel base offense with almost zero utilization of 21-personnel and below average rates of 12-personnel, meaning Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, and Zay Jones should all be expected to play the majority of the offensive snaps in a standard week. Kirk leads the team with a 22.5% team target market share and 26.7% targets per route run rate, followed by 21.3% and 25.8% from Zay Jones in those two metrics, respectively. Only Marvin Jones holds an aDOT deeper than league average at 14.3 to pair with a 17.3% team target market share and 20.4% targets per route run rate. In all, there’s nothing really here to separate one from the other two, with all three falling within 30-39 total targets this year. Each of the three has seen exactly one game of double-digit targets through five weeks. Newcomer tight end Evan Engram joins the fray with one game of double-digit targets as well on a 20.2% targets per route run rate. In all, the team lands right at league average at 36.2 pass attempts per game that operates in a relatively spread nature amongst the top four pass-catchers. 

How INDIANAPOLIS Will Try To Win ::

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Trevor Lawrence:

  • Lawrence vs 2021 IND: 162:0 // 223:2
  • Lawrence vs 2022 IND: 235:2
  • Lawrence threw for 225+ yds in just 6/17 games in 2021
  • Lawrence in 2022: 275:1:1 // 235:2 // 262:3 // 174:2:1 // 286:0:2 // (4 of 5)
  • IND ranks 21st in def pass DVOA
  • QBs vs IND: Mills (240:2) // Lawrence (235:2) // Mahomes (262:1:1) // Tanny (137:2) // Russ (274:0:2)

JAC WRs:

  • IND allowed the 8th fewest WR yds in 2021, but the 3rd most WR TDs
  • 2022 WRs vs IND: Cooks (7:82) // Kirk (6:78:2) // Juju (5:89) // Woods (4:30:1) // Sutton (5:74)
  • Top JAC WRs vs IND in 2021: MJJ (2:35; 7:88:1) // Viska (5:62) // Treadwell (3:24:1)
  • JAC WRs vs IND in 2022: Kirk (78:2) // MJJ (33) // Zay (23)
  • Zay Jones health means Kirk resumes more play in the slot, which also helps to avoid Stephon Gilmore on the outside
  • Top JAC WR DK score by week: Kirk (20.7, 25.8) // Zay (24.5) // Agnew (21) // MJJ (20.4)

JAC RBs:

  • Rush att: JRob (11 // 23 // 17 // 8 // 10) // Etienne (4 // 9 // 13 // 8 // 10)
  • Targets: JRob (2 // 2 // 3 // 0 // 2) // Etienne (4 // 3 // 3 // 1 // 5)
  • Total yds: JRob (69:2 / 78:1 / 116:1 / 29 // 39) // Etienne (65 / 53 / 75 / 32 // 114) 
  • Robinson had 40 rush att in the two games JAC won 62-10
  • Robinson had 29 rush att in the three games JAC lost 49-70
  • JAC is a 2 pt road dog to the Colts team they won in shutout in W2
  • IND ranks 2nd in def rush DVOA (3rd in 2021)
  • 2022 RBs rushing vs IND: HOU (17:73) // JAC (32:84:1) // KC (17:29:1) // TEN (22:114:1) // DEN (23:94)
  • Notable RB receiving vs IND: Burkhead (30) // Etienne (33) // CEH (39) // Henry (33) // Gordon (49), Boone (47)

Matt Ryan:

  • 2022 Matt Ryan: 352:1:1 // 195:0:3 // 222:2 // 356:2:1 // 251:0:2
  • Pass def DVOAs of those opponents: 14th // 9th // 19th // 28th // 2nd
  • JAC ranks 9th in def pass DVOA
  • QBs vs JAC: Wentz (313:4:2) // Ryan (195:0:3) // Herbert (297:1:1) // Hurts (204:0:1) // Mills (140:0)
  • IND threw the 6th fewest pass att in 2021 with Wentz (13th fewest in 2020 with Rivers)
  • Ryan has thrown 50, 30, 37, 37, 41 passes, and the 50/41 came with OTs played

IND WRs:

  • Michael Pittman missed the first JAC game
  • Alec Pierce leads IND in receiving over the last 3 weeks, with 61/80/81 compared to Pittman’s 72/31/59
  • Tg in Pittman games: Pittman (13, 9, 6, 8) // Pierce (2, 5, 6, 9) // Campbell (4, 2, 4, 3)
  • Pierce has an 11.9 aDOT and his routes/dropback read 36/54, 20/43, 17/41, 36/48
  • IND WRs vs JAC in W2: Dulin (79) // Patmon (24) // Strachan (23)
  • #1 WRs vs JAC: McLaurin (58:1) // Williams (15:1) // AJB (95) // Cooks (20)
  • Pittman vs 2021 JAC: 5:71 // 6:64:1
  • IND points when Pittman scores 20+ DK pts: 34 // 24 // 25 // 30 // 31 // 20
  • Pittman as Home Favorite has 7 scores under 7 DK pts and just 3 scores over 15 DK pts

IND RBs:

  • Hines & Taylor both limited practice Thursday
  • RB yds vs JAC: Gibson (130) // Taylor (63) // Ekeler (53) // Sanders (156:2) // Pierce (113:1)
  • Taylor total touches & yds: 38:175:1 // 10:63 // 26:91 // 23:43
  • Taylor had 15+ att in all but two games in 2021
  • Taylor att in 2022: 31 // 9 // 21 // 20
  • Taylor as a home favorite (13 g) has 8 scores of 20+ DK pts, and 5 of 25+ DK pts

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 16th 1:00pm Eastern

Vikings (
24) at

Dolphins (
21)

Over/Under 45.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Vikings Run D
8th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
2nd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
9th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
4th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
21st DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
30th DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
12th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
14th DVOA/17th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Minnesota ranks seventh in pass rate over expectation (PROE), while the Dolphins have been steadily declining over the previous three weeks since their shootout with the Ravens, particularly because they have been playing with their number two and number three quarterbacks.
  • Miami head coach Mike McDaniel has said that the team is preparing to start rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson regardless of the status of Teddy Bridgewater, which is a great coaching move considering the team now gets a full week of preparation with their quarterback.
  • Raheem Mostert missed practice to start the week with a knee injury. There was no indication as to when the injury happened, considering he rattled off 122 yards and a score on 19 touches last week.
  • Kirk Cousins has historically struggled under pressure – the Dolphins blitz at an above-average rate but have struggled to hit home with the third-lowest pressure rate in the league.
  • The Vikings rank eighth in first-half pace of play, while the Dolphins rank 22nd.

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

The lofty PROE (seventh) and elevated overall pass rates (53.41%) from Minnesota make good on the promise by Kevin O’Connell coming into the season. So too does the increased emphasis on third-year, and budding star, wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who is being developed into a Cooper Kupp-like receiver capable of beating any coverages thrown at him. That said, Jefferson is not yet on Kupp’s level, with a 27.8% targets per route run rate that falls miles below. There is also nothing pointing to the run game as a relative weakness here, with the offensive line blocking to an above-average 4.85 adjusted line yards metric, also ranking in the top five in power success rate and open field yards created. We haven’t seen many breakaway runs from Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison, which is more of a reflection of those two than the run game or scheme. Most importantly, the Vikings play fast and actively try to score points with each possession.

After averaging a 73% snap rate starting the season, Dalvin Cook has not played over 63% of the offensive snaps over the past three weeks. That has made this backfield more of a 60/40 split with increased reliance on “1B” back Alexander Mattison. Cook’s 15.1 expected fantasy points per game rank only 15th in the league this year, further highlighting the shift in mindset with these two. Furthermore, Cook’s 15 targets rank only 24th at the position this year. Still, they remain on pace to match his aerial production over the previous four seasons in Minnesota (but are underwhelming, given what we heard heading into the year that his pass game role would grow under O’Connell). Basically, Dalvin’s rushes are decreasing while his pass game role remains stagnant. The matchup on the ground yields an average 4.305 net-adjusted line yards metric against a largely pass-funnel Dolphins defense (seventh in DVOA against the run and 32nd in DVOA against the pass).

Justin Jefferson’s 30.2% team target market share highlights how valuable he is to this offense and how elite he is at beating both man and zone coverages. He should see an increased rate of man coverage this week, with the Dolphins currently third in the league in man coverage rates. Good luck with that plan. Furthermore, the Dolphins are blitzing at above-average rates but have generated pressure at the third-lowest rate in the league, which could spell trouble against Kirk Cousins and his ability to pick apart an opposing defense when afforded a clean pocket. Adam Thielen continues to play virtually every snap and run a route on virtually every dropback, currently in a route at a 99.0% clip. His modest 19.2% target rate and gross 17.8% targets per route run rate indicate a “something’s got to give” situation – either he is washed and past his prime (possible, yet unlikely considering his high snap rate and route participation rates) or we should see some regression to the mean at some point. A matchup against heavier man coverage rates might not be when it happens, but something is going to give here soon. K.J. Osborn continues to operate as the clear WR3 and has a solid win rate against man coverages this year. The heavy emphasis on 11-personnel has meant his snap rate has routinely been in the 75%+ range, something that should remain rather sticky moving forward. Finally, Irv Smith is still splitting time with Johnny Mundt capping his ceiling in the process.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • Tied for the fourth highest game total in Week 6
  • MIN has covered the spread in just one game this year
  • MIN ranks 13th in fewest adj. seconds/play, MIA ranks 31st (per numberFire)
  • MIN ranks eighth in PROE, MIA ranks 11th
  • MIA ranks 25th in avg. time of possession, MIN ranks 18th
  • Both teams are tied at 12th in ppg
  • MIN defense ranks 14th in ppg allowed, MIA ranks 29th
  • MIN ranks 10th in ypg, MIA defense ranks 24th in ypg allowed
  • MIA ranks 16th in ypg, MIN defense ranks 24th in ypg allowed
  • PFF ranks the MIN offensive line at 12th, MIA ranks 31st
  • The MIN defense is ranked 19th by PFF, MIA ranks 27th

Kirk Cousins

  • Ninth in PFF passing grade
  • Ranks 37th in ADoT & 10th in on-target % (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • Cousins’s ($6,000) last four game logs (in chronological order): 27/46:221:1:3 // 24/41:260:2 // 25/38:273:1:1 // 32/41:296:1:1
  • Yet to hit 4x his Week 6 DK salary this year
  • Since Justin Jefferson was drafted in 2020, Cousins has hit 24+ DK pts 11 times
  • MIA ranks 30th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Three QBs have hit 275+ yds & 2+ TDs
  • Their DK scores: Joe Burrow 20.08 // Josh Allen 30.7 // Lamar Jackson 48.62

MIN Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Justin Jefferson 97.1% // Adam Thielen 96.5% // K.J. Osborn 77.7% // Irv Smith 53.8%
  • Target share: Jefferson 27.5% // Thielen 17.5% // Smith 12.5% // Osborn 10.5%
  • Redzone targets: Jefferson 5 // Thielen 5 // Smith 4 // Osborn 2
  • Jefferson ($8,900) ranks seventh in target share, 11th in air yard share, sixth in WOPR, fourth in YPRR, & ninth in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs: 6/12:48 // 3/6:14 // 10/13:147 & 1:3:1 // 12/13:154
  • His 25 DK ppg ranks third
  • Scored 4x his Week 6 DK salary four times in 40 career games
  • Thielen’s ($5,900) last four games: 4/7:52 // 6/8:61:1 // 8/9:72 // 4/7:27
  • He’s scored 4x his DK salary seven times in his 37 games since Jefferson was drafted
  • Osborn ($4,300) has one game of 6+ targets and/or 50+ yds (5/8:73:1 vs. DET in Week 3)
  • Scored 4x five times in 25 games
  • MIA ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Four WRs have hit 75+ yds, including two 100+ yds
  • Notable scores: Isaiah McKenzie 21.2 // Rashod Bateman 23.8 // Tee Higgins 28.4
  • Smith’s ($3,200) last four game logs: 5/8:36:1 // 2/6:32 // 3/4:23 // 4/5:42
  • Scored 15+ DK pts three times in 2020
  • MIA ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • TEs with 40+ yds: Isaiah Likely 43 // Mark Andrews 104
  • Only Andrews has hit 12+ DK pts (28.7)

Dalvin Cook

  • Snap share: Cook 64.7% // Alexander Mattison 35.3%
  • Rush share: Cook 73.6% // Mattison 26.3%
  • Target share: Cook 7.5% // Mattison 5.5%
  • Redzone touches: Cook 11 // Mattison 10
  • Cook ($7,500) ranks eighth in rush share, 19th in RYOE/carry, seventh in broken tackle %, & 23rd in high value touch % (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs: 6:17 & 4/6:19 // 17:96:1 // 20:76 & 2/2:10 // 18:94:2 & 2/2:27
  • His 14.3 DK ppg ranks 16th
  • Cook’s DK salary hit a three year low last week and has only increased by $200 for Week 6
  • He’s hit 30+ DK pts four times in 35 games since 2020
  • In 19 games on the road since 2020, he’s averaged 17.92 DK ppg
  • MIA ranks 21st in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Just two RBs have hit 60+ yds: Joe Mixon 61 // Breece Hall 97
  • Two have hit 75+ rec yds: Devin Singletary 78 // Hall 100
  • Notable scores: Singletary 24.1 // Hall 30.7

Skylar Thompson

  • Albeit with only 35 dropbacks, Thompson ranks 36th in PFF passing grade
  • He was under pressure on 60% of his dropbacks vs. NYJ in Week 5
  • In Week 5, he ranked 31st in Pass EPA/play, 32nd in adj. YPA, & 10th in on-target % (per 4for4)
  • Thompson’s $5,000 Week 6 DK salary is the cheapest of the week among starters
  • His Week 5 game log: 19/33:166:0:1
  • MIN ranks 20th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Two QBs have hit 275+ yds but none have thrown for multiple TDs
  • Only Jalen Hurts has scored 20+ DK pts (37.02)

MIA Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Jaylen Waddle 77% // Tyreek Hill 76.7% // Durham Smythe 58.4% // Trent Sherfield 51.5%
  • Target share: Hill 28.7% // Waddle 21.8% // Sherfield 7.5% // Mike Gesicki 6.9% // Smythe 4%
  • Redzone targets: Waddle 4 // Sherfield 4 // River Cracraft 3 // Gesicki 2 // Hill 1 // Smythe 1
  • Hill ($7,500) ranks sixth in target share, 20th in air yard share, 11th in WOPR, first in YPRR, & first in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs: 11/13:190:2 // 2/4:33 // 10/14:160 // 7/7:47
  • His 22 DK ppg ranks fourth
  • As of Wednesday afternoon, Dolphins are “optimistic” that Hill will play in Week 6
  • Waddle ($6,200) ranks third in YPRR & 19th in TPRR
  • His last four game logs: 11/19:171:2 // 4/6:102 // 2/5:39 // 3/3:23
  • His 18 DK ppg ranks 11th
  • Scored 4x his Week 6 DK salary four times in 21 games
  • MIN ranks 14th in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Six WRs have hit 60+ yds, including two sets of teammates: 2 DET WRs (Amon-Ra 73 & Josh Reynolds 96) // 3 PHI WRs (DeVonta Smith 80, A.J. Brown 69, & Quez Watkins 69)
  • None have hit 20 DK pts individually
  • Gesicki ($3,100) ranks eighth in ADoT
  • His last four game logs: 4/4:41:1 // 1/1:6 // 2/4:23 // 1/2:30
  • This is his lowest DK salary in three seasons
  • Scored 15+ DK pts seven times in 34 games since 2020
  • MIN ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • TEs with 40+ yds: Cole Kmet 45 // Dallas Goedert 82
  • Notable scores: T.J. Hockenson 10.8 // Goedert 13.2

MIA Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: Raheem Mostert 59% // Chase Edmonds 39.7%
  • Rush share: Mostert 63.3% // Edmonds 32.2%
  • Target share: Edmonds 7.5% // Mostert 6.9%
  • Redzone touches: Mostert 7 // Edmonds 5
  • Mostert ($5,700) ranks 13th in rush share, 20th in RYOE/carry, & 10th in broken tackle % (per 4for4)
  • His last four game logs: 11:51 & 3/3:28 // 8:11 // 15:69 & 2/3:12 // 18:113:1 & 1/3:9
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts with McDaniels six times in his last 27 games
  • Edmonds’s ($4,800) last four games: 5:33 & 1/3:8 // 6:21:2 & 1/1:6 // 5:6 & 1/1:6 // 1:1 & 0/2
  • His snaps have decreased in every week this year
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts four times in 34 games since 2020
  • MIN ranks 22nd in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Two RBs have hit 80+ yds: Miles Sanders 80 // Jamaal Williams 87
  • No one else has hit 60
  • Two RBs have hit 40+ rec yds: AJ Dillon 46 // David Montgomery 62
  • Notable scores: Dillon 20.1 // Williams 24.7

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 16th 1:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
22.75) at

Saints (
19.75)

Over/Under 42.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
29th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
10th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
19th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
22nd DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Saints Run D
22nd DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
19th DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
11th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
17th DVOA/28th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The New Orleans injury report currently looks like a scene from Kill Bill – there’s blood everywhere. All of Michael Thomas (foot), Jarvis Landry (ankle), Chris Olave (concussion), Marshon Lattimore (abdomen), and return man/depth wide receiver Deonte Harty did not practice on Wednesday, while Jameis Winston managed a limited session as he works his way back from multiple injuries. 
  • The Bengals have held opponents to the eighth fewest points per game on the backs of the second-best points allowed per drive, the second-best drive success rate allowed, and the 10th fewest yards per drive allowed. #ThisIsALouAnarumoTweet
  • These two teams combine to average 32.56 seconds per play. 
  • Bengals WR Tee Higgins missed practice to start the week after failing to make it through Week 5’s game with an ankle injury.

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals average 69.8 offensive plays per game. That stat doesn’t mean much by itself because there are many different ways to get to a high number of plays per game. We primarily see it done in one of two ways; either a team’s defense is so poor that their offense gets the ball back faster (Detroit is a good example) or a team’s defense forces shorter drives and gives the ball back to their offense faster. Cincinnati is firmly entrenched in the latter example. So far this season, the Bengals hold the league’s second-best drive success rate allowed, second-best points allowed per drive, and the 10th fewest yards allowed per drive. That means that even though they rank in the middle of the league in offensive drive success rate (15th), their net drive success rate value ranks second overall (behind only Buffalo and ahead of Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Green Bay). Furthermore, their three losses have come through a combined eight total points, meaning this team is three bounces of the football away from being 5-0, and it’s primarily due to their defense.

Joe Mixon has played 66% or more of the offensive snaps in every week so far this year, averaging a 73.6% snap rate on the season. He ranks as the number one running back in expected fantasy points per game, with averages of 19.2 rush attempts and 5.4 targets per week. That said, his 3.7 yards per touch value ranks 54th and his true yards per carry value ranks 65th. Cincinnati’s offensive line is blocking to a 22nd-ranked 4.23 adjusted line yards value with only 3.35 running back yards per carry, indicating a situation that should regress to the mean at some point. Mixon’s 20 red zone opportunities rank second amongst running backs to only Kareem Hunt, and his zero touchdowns on seven carries inside the five rates as the worst red zone efficiency in the league. Something has got to give at some point for Mixon, it just might not be this week against a Saints defense allowing just 20.2 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields on the backs of the league’s top-ranked power run success rate. The pure rushing matchup yields an average 4.34 net-adjusted line yards metric. Expect Samaje Perine to continue in a strict change of pace role assuming he is healthy enough to play after being limited to start the week with an abdomen injury.

Injuries could force the Bengals pass game into one-dimensionality with Tee Higgins battling an ankle injury and starting tight end Hayden Hurst limited by a groin injury. As things currently stand, I would tentatively expect Higgins to miss this week while Hurst plays. Should that be the case, we’re likely to see Mike Thomas enter the starting lineup opposite Ja’Marr Chase. We also could see a heavier emphasis on 11-personnel similar to what we saw last week after Higgins left the game. Starting slot wide receiver Tyler Boyd played all but two offensive snaps, his first time over an 81% snap rate all year. The other variable here is the status of Saints corner Marshon Lattimore, who missed practice to start the week with an abdomen injury. That’s important for a couple of reasons, primarily due to the defensive tendencies shown by the Saints this year. Their 4-2-5 base nickel defense has adjusted to the opponent heavily this year, mixing and matching zone and man coverages to take away their opponents’ best chances of moving the football. Considering the injuries on each side and the relative weakness of the Bengals rush offense, it stands to reason that we see the Saints settle into heavier rates of Cover-2 and Cover-3 defensive alignments, which should benefit the short-area passing game but limit the splash play potential of the Bengals. That sets up well for Tyler Boyd, Hayden Hurst, and Joe Mixon to see a slight uptick in aerial usage while simultaneously muting the per-touch upside of all parties.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

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Andy Dalton:

  • Dalton starts since 2021: 206:0:1 // 201:2 // 317:1:1 // 229:2:4 // 173:1:1 // 325:1:2 // 236:1 // 187:1:1
  • Dalton’s two 300-yd games came against defenses ranked 27th (DET) & 13th (MIN) in def pass DVOA in 2021
  • CIN currently ranks 7th in def pass DVOA
  • Dalton has just 3 games of 20+ DK pts since 2020, and only one was above 21 (30.6)
  • QBs vs CIN: Trubisky (194:1) // Rush (235:1) // Flacco (285:0:2) // MIA (303:1:2) // Lamar (174:1:1)

NOR WRs:

  • NOR tg: Olave (3 // 13 // 13 // 7 // 6) // Landry (9 // 5 // 5 // 2 // -) // Callaway (0 // 0 // 1 // 6 // 3) // Smith (0 // 0 // 5 // 2 // 4)
  • Olave’s start: 41 // 80 // 147 // 67:1 // 54:1
  • Landry had 117 in W1, but since has just 54 yds total
  • All of Thomas, Landry, Olave are questionable
  • WRs over 50 yds vs CIN: Diontae (55) // Brown (91:1), Lamb (75) // Wilson (60) // Hill (160), Sherfield (55) // Duvernay (54)

Alvin Kamara:

  • In 2021, AK’s total touches without Ingram: 24 // 14 // 28 // 26 // 24 // 31 // 32 // 19 // 32
  • In 2021, AK’s total touches with Ingram: 23 // 20 // 17 // 17
  • 2022 RB touches: AK (13 / – / 22 / – / 29) // Ingram (5 / 12 / 5 / 13 / 9)
  • Leading NOR RB by game: AK (46) // Ingram (63) // AK (73) // Murray (65:1) // AK (194)
  • Top RB yds vs CIN: Najee (26:1) // Pollard (98:1) // Hall (92) // Mostert (81) // Dobbins (44)
  • AK as Home Dog in career (DK pts): 33.6 // 11.9 // 18.4 // 16.6 // 7.9

Joe Burrow:

  • Burrow’s last game in the Superdome was a blowout national championship win for LSU
  • QBs vs NOR: Mariota (215, 72:1) // Brady (190:1) // Baker (170:1) // Cousins (273:1:1) // Geno (268:3)
  • NOR has the 4th fewest pressures through 5 weeks
  • NOR ranks 13th in def pass DVOA
  • Joe Burrow as a road favorite (DK pts): 13.3 // 23.8 // 21.3 // 10 // 16.6 // 23
  • Burrow in Chase’s games of 25+ DK pts: 281:2:2 // 416:3:1 // 348:2 // 446:4 // 244:2 // 338:2:4

Ja’Marr Chase:

  • NOR CB Marshon Lattimore has missed practice all week
  • 2022 WRs vs NOR: London (74), Zaccheaus (49) // Evans (61), Perriman (45:1) // Moore (2), Shenault (90:1) // Jefferson (147), Thielen (72) // Lockett (104:2), Metcalf (88:1)
  • After Chase’s big game in W1 following an early Higgins exit, Chase has yet to reach 15 DK pts again since
  • Higgins has missed practice all week after essentially not playing in W5
  • Chase as a road favorite: 2:54:1 // 4:97 // 3:32:1 // 3:32:1 // 5:54 // 6:29:1
  • Top opposing player in Ja’Marr Chase’s games of 25+ DK pts: Adams (11:206:1) // M Brown (5:80:1) // Kittle (13:151:1) // D Williams (88:2, 19) // Zay (5:61:1) // Freiermuth (5:75)

Joe Mixon:

  • NOR’s elite rushing defense over the years is finally starting to show some cracks
  • Only 7 RBs finished with 50+ rush yds vs 2021 NOR
  • In 2022, Patterson (120:1), Fournette (65), CMC (108), Cook (76), Walker (88:1), Penny (54) have all rushed for 50+ yds, and Patterson & CMC joined Sanders as the only RBs to break 100 rush yds vs NOR since mid-2017
  • RBs to score 20+ DK pts vs NOR since 2018: Saquon (22, 29.6) // Latavius (20.5) // Zeke (25.6) // CMC (34.3, 22.8, 26, 24.7) // Mostert (24.9) // Dalvin (28.0) // Sanders (32.6) // Fournette (21.7) // Gibson (21.2) // Patterson (22.6, 25.6)
  • That’s 15 RB scores of 20+ DK pts allowed in the last 75 games, and just 7 of 25+
  • 14/15 scored a TD /// 6/15 scored 2 TDs /// 10/15 had 5+ rec /// 13/15 had 6+ DK rec pts
  • Mixon total touches:yds: 36:145 // 23:83 // 19:38 // 28:74:1 // 17:88

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 16th 1:00pm Eastern

Ravens (
25.5) at

Giants (
20)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Ravens Run D
7th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
32nd DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
2nd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
32nd DVOA/31st Yards per pass
Giants Run D
28th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
1st DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
23rd DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
8th DVOA/5th Yards per pass

Game Overview::

By hilow >>
  • Ravens WR Rashod Bateman missed Week 5 with a foot injury and did not practice to start the week.
  • Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson was limited to start the week while Kadarius Toney and Kenny Golladay missed practice.
  • The Ravens appear to be a more uptempo offense if looking at their situation-neutral pace of play, but their 30th-ranked overall pace of play and 32nd-ranked first half pace of play indicate a team whose offensive game plan remains consistent with what we have seen in the past (slow pace of play, lower than average volume, and above average efficiency).
  • The Giants have ridden Saquon Barkley and an above average defense (headed by Wink Martindale) to a 4-1 record.

How Baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The Ravens maintain a top-six Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) value but we must realize that their expected pass rate, based on game flow and situational play calling, is only 56.3%, which ranks third lowest in the league. That helps explain a low 54.3% overall pass rate and only 29.8 pass attempts per game, each of which ranks in the bottom 10 in the league. The context of those metrics is important, meaning this is not suddenly a pass-heavy offense with bankable volume across the board. Furthering the somewhat unexciting outlook is an opponent facing only 30.8 pass attempts per game. The Giants elevated average time of possession (31:07) and increased rush rates aid in that low number, but the reality is that the Giants remain largely untested, and their opponents to this point in the season have ranked: 32nd, 30th, 26th, 22nd, and 17th in pass attempts per game (the Ravens rank 25th at 29.8). To me, that’s simply schedule-induced variance more than it is a resounding indication of the effectiveness of the Giants defense. All of that to say, we should expect the Ravens to largely be able to attack in their preferred manner, which includes elevated rush rates and a focused, yet low volume, pass game.

The return to health of running back J.K. Dobbins has not yet translated to a lion’s share of the backfield workload, with snap rates through three healthy games of 43%, 50%, and 40%, leading to running back opportunity counts of nine, 17, and eight. Expect fullback Patrick Ricard to continue seeing elevated snap rates on a team that utilizes increased rates of heavy personnel alignments, primarily through the use of 21-personnel (“increased” as in “off the charts,” as the Ravens have run 21-personnel 40% or more in all but one game this year). Kenyan Drake should be on hand to serve as the change of pace/1B option to pair with Dobbins, while Justice Hill is working his way back from injury. The macro view here is any back should be treated as a low-volume yardage-and-touchdown back considering the offense has fed only 17 total targets to the running back position this year (third fewest). The pure rushing matchup yields a well above average 4.64 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Giants defense allowing a gaudy 5.10 yards per running back carry.

Mark Andrews is once again asserting dominance on the tight end position, responsible for a 98.7% route participation rate, a ridiculous 34.1% team target market share, a ludicrous 45.0% red zone team target market share, the most air yards at the position (482), the greatest air yards share (34.9%), and even the most unrealized air yards at the position (241). His 2.37 yards per route run value would rival the elite wide receivers, and he’s playing tight end, for Pete’s sake. To say that Mark Andrews is the focal point of this offense seems like a gross understatement. As such, even though we can’t ever project Lamar Jackson for more than 28-32 pass attempts (he has landed in this range in every game this season), we can assume, with a high degree of confidence, that Andrews can still reach double-digit (and high value) targets in most weeks. This week is no different. Things get a little dicey behind Andrews, particularly considering the status of lead wide receiver Rashod Bateman, who failed to practice on Wednesday after missing Week 5 (typically not a good sign for a return to game action). Devin Duvernay and Demarcus Robinson led the way in snaps a week ago, with Duvernay exhibiting his best “Deebo-lite” impression en route to seven targets and three carries. Duvernay has three offensive and one special teams touchdowns through five games and is a Pro Bowl-level talent in the return game, so the upside is there should his role expand again without Bateman. Robinson is a body on the field, with a low 14.3% targets per route run value and a low 56.4% route participation rate. He has yet to see more than four targets in a game this season. Tylan Wallace and James Proche split situational duties with 13 snaps and 18 snaps, respectively. Even with the injury to Bateman, everyone’s favorite breakout rookie tight end Isaiah Likely only saw 15 offensive snaps.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • BAL’s implied total of 24.75 is the ninth highest in Week 6
  • BAL -5 is the seventh widest spread
  • The OVER has hit in just one NYG game this year
  • NYG ranks fourth in fewest adj. seconds/play, BAL ranks 30th (per numberFire)
  • BAL ranks sixth in PROE, NYG ranks 24th
  • NYG ranks sixth in avg. time of possession, BAL ranks 15th
  • BAL ranks fourth in ppg, NYG defense ranks ninth in ppg allowed
  • NYG ranks tied for 19th in ppg, BAL defense ranks 17th in ppg allowed
  • BAL ranks 14th in ypg, NYG defense ranks 12th in ypg allowed
  • NYG ranks 23rd in ypg, BAL ranks 28th in ypg allowed
  • PFF ranks the BAL offensive line at 7th best, NYG ranks 30th
  • The NYG defense ranks 15th by PFF, BAL ranks 18th

Lamar Jackson

  • 18th in PFF passing grade
  • 34th in fastest time to throw
  • Second highest % of dropbacks where he’s had responsibility on the pressure allowed
  • Ranks eighth in Pass EPA/play, 10th in CPOE, seventh in ADoT, & 27th in on-target % (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • Jackson’s ($8,100) last four game logs (in chronological order): 21/29:318:3 & 9:119:1 // 18/29:218:4:1 & 11:107:1 // 20/29:144:1:2 & 11:73 // 19/32:174:1:1 & 12:58
  • His 28.8 DK ppg ranks second
  • In 20 games as a road favorite since his 2019 MVP season, Jackson has scored 30+ DK pts seven times
  • NYG ranks eighth in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Just one QB has hit 250 yds
  • None have scored 20 DK pts

BAL Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Mark Andrews 89.7% // Devin Duvernay 60.6% // Demarcus Robinson 51% // Rashod Bateman 45.5%
  • Target share: Andrews 30.9% // Bateman 14.8% // Duvernay 13.4% // Isaiah Likely 8.7% // Robinson 8.1%
  • Redzone targets: Andrews 9 // Duvernay 3 // Robinson 3 // Likely 2
  • Bateman ($5,200) ranks ninth in ADoT & sixth in YPRR (per 4for4)
  • His game logs: 2/5:59:1 // 4/7:108:1 // 2/4:59 // 3/6:17
  • Scored 20+ DK pts twice in 15 games
  • His Week 6 status is uncertain
  • Duvernay ($4,700) ranks 18th in ADoT & 22nd in YPRR
  • His last four game logs: 2/2:42 & kick return TD // 2/2:25:1 // 4/5:51 // 5/7:54
  • Scored 20+ DK pts once in 33 career games
  • NYG ranks second in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Four WRs have hit 60+ yds
  • Just one has hit 20+ DK pts (CeeDee Lamb 22.7)
  • Andrews ($7,000) ranks first in target share, first in air yard share, fourth in ADoT, first in WOPR, first in YPRR, & first in TPRR
  • His last four game logs: 9/11:104:1 // 8/13:89:2 // 2/5:15 // 8/10:89:1
  • His 18.8 DK ppg ranks second
  • Scored 4x his Week 6 DK salary seven times since Jackson’s MVP season (2019)
  • NYG ranks 13th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Only Peyton Hendershot has hit 40+ yds
  • None have hit double digit DK pts

BAL Rushing Attack

  • Snap share: J.K. Dobbins 28.1% // Justice Hill 27.7% // Kenyan Drake 24.2%
  • Rush share: Dobbins 36.8% // Drake 27.6% // Hill 15%
  • Target share: Dobbins 4% // Hill 2.7% // Drake 1.3%
  • Redzone touches: Dobbins 8 // Lamar Jackson 6 // Drake 3 // Hill 1
  • Dobbins’s ($5,500) game logs: 7:23 & 2/2:17 // 13:41:1 & 4/4:22:1 // 8:44
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts twice in 20 career games
  • No other BAL RB has scored double digit DK pts this year
  • NYG ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Five RBs have hit 70+ yds: Ezekiel Elliott 73 // Khalil Herbert 77 // Derrick Henry 82 // Christian McCaffrey 102 // Tony Pollard 105
  • Only Dontrell Hilliard, who is the lone RB with more than 30 rec yds vs. NYG (he had 61 with 2 rec TDs), has hit 20+ DK pts vs. NYG

Daniel Jones

  • 20th in PFF passing grade
  • Under pressure on 48.2% of his dropbacks this season
  • Completing 20.6% more of his passes when utilizing play action
  • Dropping back in play action 41.7% of the time (58.3% without play action)
  • 33rd in fastest time to throw
  • Ranks ninth in CPOE, 27th in adj. YPA, & 39th in ADoT (per 4for4)
  • Jones’s ($5,200) last four game logs: 22/34:176:1 & 10:21 // 20/37:196:0:1 & 9:79 // 8/13:71 & 6:68:2 // 21/27:217 & 10:37
  • In 33 games as an underdog, Jones has scored 4x his Week 6 DK salary seven times, with the following notable scores: 29.46 // 30.78 // 32.18 // 39.24
  • He’s never hit 25+ DK pts as a home dog (16 games)
  • BAL ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Three QBs have hit 300+ yds, but only one has thrown for multiple TDs (Tua Tagovailoa had six) and all QBs have at least one INT
  • Tua’s 43.86 DK pts are the only score over 25 this year

NYG Passing Attack

  • Snap share: David Sills 64% // Daniel Bellinger 59.8% // Richie James 54.4%
  • Target share: James 16.3% // Bellinger 8.9% // Sills 8.9%
  • Redzone targets: Sills 2 // Bellinger 2 // Darius Slayton 2
  • No NYG WR is priced over $4,500 in Week 6 DK salary
  • Among the expected starting WRs this week, only Darius Slayton has hit 15+ DK pts since 2020 for NYG (he did so twice in 2020)
  • Slayton’s the only WR to hit 75+ yds (once)
  • Richie James is the only other Week 6 NYG WR to hit 50+ yds (twice)
  • BAL ranks 31st in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Three WRs have hit 150+ yds, and two more have hit 60+
  • Notable scores: DeVante Parker 23.6 // Jaylen Waddle 43.1 // Tyreek Hill 45
  • Bellinger ($3,200) ranks 10th in YPRR
  • His last four game logs: 1/1:16:1 // 4/5:40 // 3/3:23 // 2/3:22
  • BAL ranks 18th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Three TEs have hit 40+ yds
  • Notable scores: Tyler Conklin 11.4 // Mike Gesicki 14.1 // Hayden Hurst 17.3

Saquon Barkley

  • Barkley ($7,700) ranks 11th in rush share, eighth in RYOE/carry, & 16th in high value touch %
  • His last four game logs: 21:72 & 3/4:16 // 14:81:1 & 4/4:45 // 31:146 & 2/2:16 // 13:70:1 & 3/6:36
  • His 22.3 DK ppg ranks third
  • During his heyday from 2018-2019, Barkley was priced at $9,000+ on DK
  • He’s scored 30+ DK pts seven times in 50 career games (once so far this year)
  • BAL ranks 15th in DK ppg allowed to RBs
  • Just two RBs have hit 70+ yds and none have had 80
  • Four RBs have hit 30+ rec yds: Breece Hall 38 // Samaje Perine 39 // Michael Carter 40 // Devin Singletary 47
  • Only Rhamondre Stevenson has hit 20+ DK pts vs. BAL (20.1)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 16th 1:00pm Eastern

Bucs (
28) at

Steelers (
18.5)

Over/Under 46.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Buccaneers Run D
17th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
9th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
14th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
20th DVOA/24th Yards per pass
Steelers Run D
15th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
27th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
6th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
18th DVOA/16th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • The Bucs offense has shown signs of life the last two weeks and will try to match the show the Bills put on last week against these Steelers.
  • The lack of pass rush for the Steelers without TJ Watt will be a huge problem for them trying to slow down Tom Brady and Co.
  • The Steelers offense is going to continue to struggle to form an identity if they keep falling behind in games.
  • Pittsburgh has a tough decision to make in how to attack the Bucs, with a very difficult matchup for the passing game and a running game that may be the worst in the NFL.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Tampa Bay offense appears to be firing again, with their core offensive players healthy and starting to get in sync. A matchup with the Falcons funneled the Bucs heavily towards the pass, as Tom Brady threw the ball 52 times compared to only 20 “non-kneel” rushing plays, a 73% pass rate, in a game that they never trailed and were ahead by multiple scores for about two-thirds of the game. This week, they face a Steelers defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per carry allowed, having just given up 424 passing yards to Josh Allen and the Bills, with a whopping 348 of those yards coming in the first half!!! What that tells us is that the Bucs, favored by eight points on the road in this matchup, should have the opportunity to attack the Steelers in whatever manner they choose.

After a slow offensive start to the season for the Bucs, they hold the highest Pass Rate Over Expectation over the last two weeks since Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both returned to the lineup. While the volume has returned, the passing game didn’t quite hit last week in the massive way that we occasionally saw it hit in previous years due to some bad touchdown luck and a couple of missed opportunities. They look good but are still just a bit shy of the well-oiled machine that a fully functioning Bucs passing game usually operates as. This week, they should have a chance to fully resurrect. The Steelers defense has become a shell of itself without TJ Watt, as they currently have PFF’s 23rd-graded pass rush despite an opening week performance where they dominated the Bengals (the only game in which Watt played). After seven sacks in that opening game, the Steelers have only three total sacks in the last four games. This will be a critical aspect of this game as the Bucs offensive line has struggled against some better pass rushes this year, but if Tom Brady is given a clean pocket with his weapons at his disposal then he is likely to pick up right where Josh Allen left off. 

The Bucs are a team that follows the spirit of their leader, Tom Brady, and is aggressive and goes for the kill when they smell blood. It is hard to imagine a scenario where they watch last week’s film from the Steelers game against the Bills and don’t come out firing and trying to tear the lid off the game. The Bucs have thrown at a high rate only recently, but for the season they are playing at a torrid pace, ranking 2nd in the NFL in seconds-per-snap and 8th in situation-neutral pace of play. 

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

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By LexMiraglia10 >>

Kenny Pickett:

  • QBs vs TB: Dak (134:0:1) // Winston (236:1:3) // Rodgers (255:2:1) // Mahomes (249:3:1) // Mariota (147:1)
  • In a blowout loss to BUF, Pickett threw for 327:0:1 in his first career start
  • TB ranks 1st in def pass DVOA, another tough matchup after facing 6th ranked BUF
  • PIT is a 9 pt home underdog
  • Home underdogs of 7+, implied for under 20 pts since 2014: 113 QBs average 14.6 DK pts with 38.9% consistency in hitting expectation, just 13 have scored 25+ (11.5%)

PIT WRs:

  • 2021 TB allowed 18 WRs of 60+ yds; 6 WRs of 100+ yds
  • 2021 TB allowed the 4th most WR rec and the 11th most WR yds on the 3rd most WR tg
  • 2022 WRs vs TB: Lamb (29), Brown (68) // Olave (80), Thomas (65:1) // Doubs (73:1), Lazard (45:1) // MVS (63), Juju (46) // Zacchaeus (39:1), London (35)
  • PIT tg in Pickett start: Diontae (13) // Claypool (9) // Pickens (8)
  • Pickens has 102 and 83 yds after a slow start with Trubisky
  • Diontae has one game over 60 yds this season

PIT RBs:

  • Tracking the Bowles TB rush def::
  • TB allowed the fewest RB rush yds in each of the last three seasons under Bowles
  • In 16 games in 2019, Gurley & AK were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and they combined for 17 rec in those 2 games
  • In 20 games in 2020, Kamara, CMC, & Cook were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and AK & CMC both needed 2 TDs to get there
  • In 19 games in 2021, Patterson, Gaskin, Herbert, & Gibson were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and the first 3 combined for 20 rec while Gibson scored 2 TDs
  • 2022 TB run defense appears to currently be a step below what those previous 3 teams have been
  • Top RBs vs 2022 TB: Elliott (10:52) // Ingram (10:60) // Jones/Dillon (24:68) // CEH (19:92:1), Pacheco (11:63) // Allgeier (45)
  • TB allowed the 2nd most RB rec in 2021 after allowing the most in 2020 (5th most RB rec yds allowed 2021)
  • 2022 TB has allowed just 17 rec for 58 yds, TD
  • Najee yds: 26:1 // 89 // 61 // 74 // 36
  • Warren yds: 7 // 15 // 33 // 22 // 63

Tom Brady:

  • Brady scored multiple TDs in 15/19 games in 2021
  • Brady passed for 250+ yds in 14/19 games (10/19 over 300yds)
  • Brady in 2022: 212:1:1 // 190:1 // 271:1 // 385:3 // 351:1
  • QBs vs PIT: Burrow (338:2:4) // Mac (252:1:1) // Brissett (220:2) // Z Wilson (252:1:2) // Allen (424:4:1)
  • In 10 games vs Tomlin’s Steelers, Brady has averaged 319 yds, 2.7 TDs per game
  • Brady has been favored on the road 20 times as a Buc, scoring 25+ DK pts in 9 of them, and 30+ in 7 of them
  • PIT ranks 18th in def pass DVOA and has allowed the 3rd most completed air yds

TB WRs:

  • 5 WRs already have 100+ yds vs PIT, and another 3 have 75+ yds
  • Chase (129:1) // Agholor (110:1), Meyers (95) // Cooper (101:1) // C Davis (75:1) // G Davis (171:2), Diggs (102:1), Shakir (75:1)
  • TB targets last two weeks: Evans (18) // Godwin (16) // Gage (10) // Miller (7)
  • TB yds last two weeks: Evans (184:2) // Godwin (120) // Gage (44) // Miller (35)
  • Evans DK pts in the 9 aforementioned Brady games: 5.7 // 19.7 // 20 // 43.1 // 20.9 // 21.6 // 12.8 // 16.9 // 14.7

Leonard Fournette:

  • Fournette’s 2021 season::
  • 15+ touches in 13/15 g // 6 g of 60+ rush yds (5 of 80+)
  • 3+ rec in 14/15 g // 5+ rec in 8/15 g // 40+ rec yds in 7 g
  • Fournette in 2022::
  • Rushing: 21:127 // 24:65 // 12:35 // 3:-3 // 14:56:1
  • Receiving: 2:10 // 2:9 // 5:35 // 7:57:1 // 10:83:1
  • After allowing 96 RB rec yds to CIN in W1, PIT has allowed just 64 RB rec yds in 4 g since
  • Rushing vs PIT: CIN (86) // NE (118:1) // CLE (160:1) // NYJ (81:1) // BUF (80:1)
  • Fournette’s 9 g as road favorite since 2021 (DK scores): 6.4 // 16.8 // 30.7 // 7.3 // 17.2 // 47.1 // 22.2 // 18.7 // 9.4

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 16th 4:05pm Eastern

Panthers (
15.5) at

Rams (
25.5)

Over/Under 41.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Panthers Run D
32nd DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
11th DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
22nd DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
16th DVOA/4th Yards per pass
Rams Run D
23rd DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
28th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
14th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
30th DVOA/32nd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • Get ready for a potential pillow fight between two offenses who currently rank in the bottom seven of the league in DVOA.
  • Both teams are in the top 10 in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation, but both are also bottom-5 in average depth of target.
  • The Rams have played at a surprisingly slow pace this season after riding an uptempo offense to a Super Bowl last year.
  • There is an unknown factor here with a coaching change in Carolina and uncertainty regarding how the team will react to that and any potential changes in philosophy or approach.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

After an impressively inept two-plus seasons running the show, Matt Rhule was dismissed from his position as the Panthers Head Coach after last week’s ugly loss to the 49ers in which the Panthers once again showed very little resistance as they were methodically taken apart by the 49ers, who won by 20+ points and scored 37 points without doing anything exceptionally impressive. Taking over for Rhule will be Steve Wilks, who was previously a head coach for one season for the Cardinals during their season with Josh Rosen as the starting quarterback. The Panthers also fired their defensive coordinator, and Wilks has a background in defense, so it would make sense that most changes he makes will be on that side of the ball. On offense, Ben McAdoo is still running the show, so there is less likelihood of major changes, although Rhule being out may change the dynamics some, and we may see some adjustments as the Panthers may have different goals in mind than when they started the season (time to tank??).

Adding to the changes, Baker Mayfield will be out for some time after being injured in Week 5. Taking over will be PJ Walker, who has had a couple of spot starts in the last couple of years and actually won both games despite relatively modest stat lines. Walker may not set the world on fire himself, but he has shown the ability to get the ball to his playmakers and let them go to work. In Walker’s first start, DJ Moore had a stat line of one rush for 21 yards and seven receptions for 127 yards on eleven targets, while Curtis Samuel also had eight receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown – Christian McCaffrey did not play in that game. In Walker’s second start, CMC totaled 161 yards from scrimmage on 23 touches, and Walker spread the ball around to other receivers as the Panthers dominated the Cardinals. That was also the game Cam Newton returned to the Panthers and stole some of the scoring work.

Looking to this week, the Panthers currently rank top-10 in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), but Baker Mayfield has the lowest average intended air yards of all quarterbacks through five weeks. The Rams have a run defense that is top-5 in most metrics and has personnel advantages all over, which may make it difficult for the Panthers to start by getting things going on the ground. As for passing defense, the Rams play man coverage at the lowest rate in the league and, despite blitzing at the 6th highest rate in the NFL, rank 31st in hurry rate. The Rams also face the 6th lowest average depth of target among all defenses this season. This tells us that Walker should be able to have time to drop back and make good decisions about where to go with the ball, with openings most likely to be in short to intermediate areas of the field against their soft zone coverages. While I don’t expect the Panthers to fully air it out with Walker, it is worth noting that on just six attempts this season, Walker’s total intended air yards are 10% of what Mayfield had for the entire season.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

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  • To Mike’s point about the Rams potentially having more upside than it will look to most people on this side of Sunday :: we should keep in mind that the 2021 Rams were not a flash-in-the-pan fluke; while the makeup of that team was different from past Rams teams, Sean McVay has proven for years that he can scheme up offense, and can find solutions to obstacles that stand in the way of his teams
  • We should also keep in mind that “pass rush matters” (as Mike also alluded to), and it wouldn’t be all that surprising if we were to see the Rams offense post their best overall game of the season in this spot
  • Of course, there are deeper considerations on a slate this, in that we not only need the Rams to “have a good game on offense,” but need them to produce tourney-winning scores in order to be worth chasing on our rosters; when you look at Stafford priced next to Brady on DraftKings, it’s difficult to paint the picture of him frequently outperforming the GOAT if we could play out this slate a hundred times, which means the ownership gap would have to be significant before I would start getting onto Stafford on my tighter builds — but I do feel as confident as ever in Cooper Kupp this week, and if this backfield boasted a less messy split, I would have some interest here on tighter builds as well; Higbee remains in play (as he has for weeks), and while I can’t see myself chasing this “story” myself, it wouldn’t be a total shock if Allen Robinson were to post a couple touchdowns on relatively limited yardage
  • The Panthers have three players in McCaffrey, Moore, and Robbie Anderson who “wouldn’t surprise us” if they came out of Sunday with a really nice output — and all three should come with low ownership (the Panthers’ wideouts in particular); while none of these three will be pushing their way onto my tighter builds, I consider all three to be large-field-viable
  • Summing it up, I’m in a spot that’s a bit like, “Yeah, this game is kind of interesting” — and yet, I don’t have actual interest myself (on tighter builds) outside of Kupp and Higbee

By MadDukes22 >>

Game Overview

  • O/U of 40.5 is lowest on the slate. LAR -10 is the largest spread of the week.
  • CAR Pace: 58 plays/60 (31st) // 64% pass rate (7th) // 24.7 sec/snap (5th).
  • LAR Pace: 64 plays/60 (18th) // 69% pass rate (1st) // 27.2 sec/snap (20th).
  • OFF Drive Success Rate: CAR .597 (32nd) // LAR .689 (21st)
  • DEF DSR: CAR .694 (14th) // LAR .688 (11th)
  • TOP/60: CAR: 25:22 (32nd) // LAR 30:03 (16th)

PJ Walker

  • 2 Games with more than 18 snaps in his career
    • Wk 11 2020 vs DET: 24/34/258/1/2 (12.1 DK pts)
    • Wk 10 2021 @ ARI: 22/29/167/0/1 (7.3 DK pts)

CMC

  • Played with Walker in 2021 @ ARI
    • 15 for 95 rush // 10 for 66 rec // 0 TDs (26.1 DK pts)
  • 47.4 snaps/g (4th) // 19.6 Touch/g (8th) // 18 OEP/g (3rd)
  • 7 TGT/g (1st) // 5 rec/g (2nd) // 37 yds/g (4th)
  • Only 10 RZ Opps this season where he scored all 3 of his TDs (2 rush / 1 rec)

CAR Receivers

  • Moore in both Walker games
    • Avg: 6 rec / 10 tgt / 75.5 yds / 0 TDs (14.6 DK pts)
  • Anderson in both Walker games
    • Avg: 5.5 rec / 7.5 tgt / 41.5 yds / 0 TDs (12.65 DK pts)
  • WOPR: Moore .58 // Anderson .46
  • Moore has between 40-60 yds in 4 of 5 games (2yds vs NO)
  • Anderson has less than 35 yds in 4 of 5 games (102yds vs CLE)

CAR D

  • 3rd fewest sacks in NFL (8) but 8th in pressure rate (32%)
  • 4th most rush att against 

Stafford

  • Avg: 253 yds/g (16th) // 38.4 att/g (8th) // 6.07 air yds/att (30th)
  • Second fewest completions of 20+ yds (11) of QBs to play 5 games
  • 6th most dropbacks in NFL (217)
  • 21 sacks taken already this season // 30 all of last season

LAR Rushing

  • Fewest rushing attempts and yards in NFL
  • Henderson has consistently out-snapped Akers (38:21 avg)
  • Akers continues to out-touched Henderson (12.5:7 avg) since Wk 2 including 13:4 Wk 5
  • Both are avg 8 OEP/g

LAR Receiving

  • Kupp is second in NFL with a .77 WOPR
  • Kupp is 1st in DK pts (28.8) // Diggs in 2nd (25.8)
  • Kupp Leads NFL in TGT/g (12.8) and rec/g (9.8) // 2nd in yds/g (105.4) and TGT% (33.9)
  • Higbee among TEs: TGT% 25.4 (2nd) // RR/g 33 (2nd) // ADOT 3.2 (lowest of any TE with more than 10 RR/g)
  • Skowronek Avg: 4/3/36 // Robinson Avg: 4/2/21

LAR D

  • 10 sacks (21st) and 4 INTs (14th) on the season
  • 1.12 yards before contact is 2nd lowest in NFL

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 16th 4:05pm Eastern

Cards (
26.5) at

Hawks (
24)

Over/Under 50.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Cardinals Run D
30th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
22nd DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
31st DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
12th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Seahawks Run D
19th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
15th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
26th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
27th DVOA/29th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson>>
  • Both teams enter this game with a 2-3 record but are only one game behind the division leading 49ers.
  • Surprisingly to many, Seattle has been a source of fantasy gold this season, sporting the league’s top-rated offense and worst-rated defense through five weeks.
  • Backfield injuries have left both teams in different situations than they had for the first few weeks, which may affect play calling and packages for both offenses.
  • There is potential for offensive fireworks if these teams decide to air it out, as these defenses rank 31st and 32nd in the NFL in PFF coverage grade.

How Arizona Will Try To Win ::

The Cardinals played a terrific game in Week 5, staying close to the previously dominant Eagles and having a chance late in the game before Kyler Murray had a brain fart at the end of the game that may or may not have been caused by sleep deprivation after the last “Double XP Week” on Call of Duty last Friday. All kidding aside, the close loss was probably the best overall performance they’ve had all season and provided some positive outlook going forward. This is good news, as the Cardinals head to a hostile environment for a road game. They enter with a 2-3 record and have a chance to be tied for the division lead if they win here, and then they get DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension in Week 7. 

The Seahawks defense played man coverage on less than 10% of their snaps the first three weeks, before showing a clear shift in philosophy the last two weeks when they played man coverage on roughly 40% of their snaps, a number that would put them near the top-5 in the league if extrapolated for the whole season so far. It will be interesting to see if the Seahawks continue with this man-heavy approach this week, as they have given up 84 total points in the last two weeks since that change against an offense that was without their top two weapons (Lions without D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown), and an offense with a backup QB (Andy Dalton) who was missing two starting wide receivers (Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry) and also lost Chris Olave during the game. This decision point for the Seahawks will be an interesting one for the probability of success of the Cardinals offense, as the Cardinals have faced over 25% man coverage only once this season and that was in their Week 2 win over the Raiders, which was their highest scoring game of the season and also the only game in which they amassed over 400 total yards of offense. The Seahawks defense has also had wild swings in their blitz rates through the first five weeks, blitzing on 23, 16, 7, 2, and 33 of their snaps over each of the respective first five weeks. Seattle just appears to be grasping at straws defensively, and hoping something sticks. Unfortunately for us, this makes it hard to accurately project what their approach will be on a week-to-week basis and therefore hard to predict which players they are facing may be in the most advantageous spots to exploit their scheme. On the bright side, Seattle has been very bad at pretty much everything they’ve tried, so offensive success for their opponents is usually a safe bet in some fashion. So far this season, Seattle opponents score an average of 13.1 more points per game against Seattle than they do in their other games.

That’s a lot of information about the Seattle defense, but it’s necessary to evaluate the Arizona offense. The Cardinals don’t alter their scheme much week to week and approach most games with the same spread tendencies and formations, passing near the league average based on game flow expectations, and playing at a moderate pace in neutral game scripts. For weeks, I have spoken in my Edge writeups about the “vanilla” approach of Kliff Kingsbury and how difficult it is to have consistent production when not altering the approach for your personnel and opponents. However, games like this against very poor defenses are where Kingsbury’s scheme can have success and pad stats, making their season-long numbers look much better in the process. Consider this, the Cardinals have played five games this season and three of those games were against defenses ranked in the top half of the league while two of them were against defenses ranked in the bottom half of the league. The three games against top-half defenses were the Cardinals three losses, in which they averaged only 16.7 points per game. The two games against bottom-half defenses were their two wins, in which they averaged 27.5 points per game. The Seahawks, as outlined above, have the league’s worst defense by almost any metric and have made everyone look way better so far this year. It’s funny what happens when you can’t cover anyone and also don’t get pressure on the quarterback.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

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By Dwprix >>

Overview

  • 1 of 2 games with a total over 50 (51) (BUF @ KC-54)
  • ARI favored by 2.5
  • Last season: (ARI-23 @ SEA-13) // (SEA-38 @ ARI-30)
  • ARI is 1st in plays/g (72.2) // SEA is 31st (55.4)

Kyler Murray

  • Murray w/o Hopkins 2021: (13.6, 21.9, 22.9, 17.1)
  • This season: (17.1, 23.9, 16.4, 24.9, 20.6)
  • Last season vs SEA: (Pass 28:39:240:1 TD, Rush 5:35) 
  • Murray has played SEA 5 times
  • DK pts in those 5: (17.1, 20.3, 41.1, 12.7, 17.3)
  • His avg of 21.7 vs LAR is 3.0x this weeks DK salary
  • SEA has allowed 21.1 DK pts/g to QBs (8th most) but the 7th least pass yds/g (259.8), 9th fewest completions/g (20.2), & 7th fewest pass TDs/g (1.8)

ARI WRs

  • Rondale Moore has played 88% of snaps in his 1st two games of season
  • Greg Dortch has only played 20% (just 2 snaps last week)
  • Moore has an 19% target share in his 1st 2 games (8, 5)
  • Marquise Brown has 10 or more tgts in 4 straight (10, 11, 17, 11)
  • He’s T-2nd in tgts/g among WRs (11.0)
  • 27% team tgt share 
  • SEA has allowed 29.2 DK pts/g to WRs (4th fewest)

ARI RBs

  • Darrel Williams is out, Conner is questionable (DNP Wednesday), Jonathan Ward on IR
  • Eno Benjamin is the only healthy back // ARI signed Corey Clement to practice squad
  • Benjamin this season (8:25:1 TD // 14.3 DK pts) // (5:36 // 5.5) // (5:16 // 4.3) // (8:31 // 8.1) // (4:28 // 9.1)
  • Tgts: (4, 1, 4, 4, 4)
  • Conner had 6 TDs through 5 games last season // only 1 this season
  • He’s yet to break 3x DK salary
  • DK pts: (7.3, 10.7, 8.7, 7.1, 16.5)
  • SEA has allowed 32.2 DK pts to RBs (2nd most)

ARI TEs

  • Ertz has seen 10 or more tgts in 3 of 5: (10, 6, 10, 11, 4)
  • 4th most tgts/g among TEs (8.2)
  • At least 10 DK pts in each game: (10.8, 16.7, 10.5, 15.5, 11.4)
  • SEA has allowed the most DK pts to TEs (25.9) counting Hill’s big week (not eligible for TE on DK)

Geno Smith

  • Smith has 300+ pass yds in 2 of 5 games (268, 320, 325, 197, 195)
  • His lowest pass yd games came against DEN (1st in pass yds allowed) & SF (3rd in pass yds allowed)
  • ARI allows 248.2 pass yds/g (12th most)
  • DK pts: (24.02, 34.7, 22.9, 7.1, 17.2)
  • ARI has allowed the 10th most DK pts to QBs (20.7)

SEA WRs

  • Lockett has 2 games over 300 yds & 4 straight over 75 yds
  • Tgts: (6, 8, 11, 11, 4) // 26% tgt share
  • DK pts: (30.4, 14.1, 16.6, 22.7, 5.8)
  • Metcalf has 1 game over 100 yds
  • Tgts (8, 10, 12, 6, 7) // 28% tgt share
  • DK pts: (18.8, 24.9, 17.4, 7.5, 9.6)
  • Lockett is $1.2k cheaper than Metcalf on DK
  • ARI has allowed the 9th least DK pts/g to WRs (30.6)

SEA RBs

  • Rashaad Penny left injured last week & could miss the rest of the season
  • Snaps last week: (Walker 30) // (Dallas 11)
  • Walker averaged 11.0 yds/carry last week: (8:88:1TD // 14.8 DK pts)
  • Dallas saw only 1 carry & 1 tgt
  • ARI has allowed the 10th least DK pts/g to RBs (20.9)

SEA TEs

  • Snap %: (Fant 57%) // (Dissly 63%)
  • Dissly’s scored 3 TDs // Fant’s scored 1 TD
  • DK pts: Dissly (4.1, 13.9, 12.4, 2.0, 13.3) // Fant (7.9, 7.2, 6.7, 3.1, 4.6)
  • Neither has yet to see over 5 tgts in a game
  • ARI has allowed the 2nd most DK pts/g to TEs (20.1)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 16th 4:25pm Eastern

Bills (
28.5) at

Chiefs (
26)

Over/Under 54.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bills Run D
14th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
17th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
16th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
5th DVOA/16th Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
27th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
6th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
3rd DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
2nd DVOA/8th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By MJohnson86 >>
  • The game everyone is talking about, both teams enter this week ranked top-10 in the league in offensive DVOA, yards per play, and points per game.
  • These are the top two teams in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE).
  • The Buffalo defense has been elite, allowing three touchdowns only one time this season in a fluky performance by the Dolphins where they only managed 212 total yards from scrimmage.
  • The Bills defense has given up 61 total points this season, with 14 of those points coming on touchdown drives that started inside the Bills 10-yard line. The Chiefs defense has given up 60 total points in the last two weeks.

How Buffalo Will Try To Win ::

This is it for the Bills. After being eliminated from the playoffs the last two years by the Chiefs, this game carries as much significance for the Bills as any regular season game will all year. While this one game won’t make or break the season, and a potential playoff matchup is obviously much more critical, the fact of the matter is that the Bills have built their team largely with getting past the Chiefs in mind. Their defense is built to create pressure without having to bring heavy blitzes (they rank 31st in the NFL in blitz rate), and this allows them to drop a lot of bodies into coverage and play shell and zone coverages (they rank 5th in the league in zone coverage rate). This combination has treated them well, as their defense has been dominant this year but will now face arguably their toughest test of the year in the Chiefs.

On the offensive side of the ball, Josh Allen and company have been humming and are coming off a dominant performance against the Steelers. They now face a Chiefs defense that has given up 60 points to the Bucs and Raiders the last two weeks and the Bills scored 74 points against them in two meetings last year. The eruption of Gabe Davis is a nice reminder to opponents that they can’t sell out to stop Stefon Diggs – something the Chiefs probably didn’t need to be reminded of after Davis dropped eight receptions for 201 yards and four touchdowns against them in the playoffs last year. The Chiefs defense is kind of in the middle of the pack in both blitz rate and zone coverage rate, meaning that they can be flexible depending on their opponent. The best approach for the Chiefs this week will likely be to drop more players into coverage and force the Bills to work the ball underneath and dare them to run the ball against light boxes – ironically the same strategy that opponents have used against Mahomes in recent years. The Bills will likely accept this early in the game and take chunk plays on the ground to move the ball and hope to force the Chiefs to tighten things up. This will be an interesting chess match, as the Bills pass the ball at over a 70% rate on the season but the Chiefs will do everything they can to encourage them to run the ball. All that being said, the Bills certainly have the talent to take their shots early in the game as well and could take the approach that they want to set the tone and get a lead early in this game, allowing their #2 PFF graded pass rush to tee off on a predictable Kansas City offense if Buffalo can force them to play from behind.

How Kansas City Will Try To Win ::

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  • This is such an interesting game, and such an interesting week, as BUF/KC stands out to a ridiculous degree here, given what transpired in this game last season and what else is available on this week’s slate
  • I could see things going one of two extreme ways here from a “DFS Field Tendencies” standpoint, with clear potential for the DFS field to flock to this game as the “obviously best spot,” but also with clear potential for the field to instead focus on all the ways this game could disappoint against the salaries at which you’d have to roster key pieces here — which could lead to this game being lower-owned than we might have expected heading into the week; if we land on this second scenario (which I think is actually more likely), we’ll head into Saturday evening // Sunday morning with Josh Allen projected as the highest-owned quarterback (and Patrick Mahomes likely in the top three), but with none of the individual skill position players from this game grabbing particularly high ownership from there
  • This second scenario would also — honestly — more appropriately speak to the underlying aspects of this game that make it “not quite as much of a sure thing” as it looks like at first glance
  • We have yet to see a Kansas City wide receiver top 90 receiving yards in a game, and it has probably been years since I have rostered a wide receiver against Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier’s Bills defense; we also saw a couple weeks ago what Buffalo can do to an elite tight end when they prioritize taking that guy away (Mark Andrews: 2-15-0)
  • Meanwhile, we know that Buffalo spreads the ball around and often creates situations where Josh Allen puts up a “strong, but not had-to-have-it” score (the type of score where you aren’t upset with what you’re getting at his price tag, but where it’s not as if it was necessary to pay up for him that week), while not producing a particularly elite price-considered score for any of his pass catchers; we can also feel comfortable expecting Kansas City to try to force Buffalo to work the short and intermediate areas of the field
  • I’ll go ahead and surprise myself a bit here by starting with this:
    • No KC wideout has topped 15 DraftKings points this week, and I’ll be surprised if that changes against the elite defense of the Bills, which means I don’t plan to take swings on any of these guys (even if one of them tops 15 DK points, a “had to have it” of 27+ at their price tags is not particularly likely, and the floor to chase that type of ceiling is low)
    • Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the only running back on Kansas City who has topped 12.2 DraftKings points this season, and he has never once, in his 32-game career (playoffs included), posted a DraftKings score of even 4x his Week 6 salary, which will have me off him as well
    • This makes Kelce the only skill position player I’ll be considering on Kansas City
    • As I’ve noted multiple times this year: when Kelce hits, Mahomes almost inevitably hits as well (Kelce’s last seven “hits,” starting from his most recent and going back to Week 1 of last year: 33.5 // 24.2 // 29.1 // 44.1 // 22.9 // 26.9 // 25.6 || Mahomes’ scores in those games :: 30.5 // 24.4 // 37.9 // 34.6 // 39.2 // 28.0 // 36.3), which means that if I’m playing Kelce, I’m likely playing Mahomes
  • On the Buffalo side, a game from Josh Allen of 30ish points would be nice, but I won’t be concerned if I don’t get that, which means that if I’m playing him, I’m hoping for a monster output; and if he has a monster output, he’s definitely bringing at least one of his pass catchers with him; with that in mind, “Josh Allen + a pass catcher” is in play for me — though interestingly, this setup would have me bringing back no one from the KC side (effectively betting on “Buffalo wins somewhat handily”), as Kelce is the only guy I really want to play on Kansas City, and if I’m rostering Kelce, I’m taking the “free square” that goes along with him in Mahomes (i.e., if my Kelce bet is right, my Josh Allen bet might also be right, but my Mahomes bet would definitely be right, so there would be no reason to take on the unnecessary risk); conversely, I could end up with Kelce/Mahomes/’Bills pass catcher’
  • The final way I may look to play this is to take neither quarterback, but to keep guys like Dawson Knox and Isaiah McKenzie close to my builds as a way to gain exposure to the Bills’ offense while still taking a quarterback (Tom Brady, for example) who could put up close to 30 points for less in salary — i.e., saying, “Yeah, Josh Allen probably scores 30 yet again here, but as long as he doesn’t go for 35+, I can get close to that score and open up some nice upside elsewhere with this extra salary”
  • Tying all that up:
    • Mahomes + Kelce (likely with a Buffalo bring-back), or
    • Allen + a pass catcher (Diggs, Davis, McKenzie would be the priorities), or
    • Neither QB, but keep a couple guys (likely the less pricey guys) close to my builds
  • A final note here :: while this is obviously a highly coherent/logical way to approach this game, it’s not “the only way”; it’s entirely possible this game goes nuts, and if you’re playing tourneys this week, you should be willing to figure out how you see this game, and should build your own coherent/logical thoughts around the ways you see it potentially playing out
mike johnson >>

Nothing to see here, just move along . . .

I kid, I kid!! This game is clearly the cream of the crop and requires a lot of attention, as how you decide to deal with this game affects how you build the rest of the roster. I will start by explaining my belief in how this game plays out. Based on the personnel, tendencies, history, etc. – here are my “rough” expectations for the game, if it was played 10 times in this exact situation:

  • 5 out of 10 times the Bills win convincingly – a 10 to 17 point win (maybe like last year’s 38-20 regular season game, maybe a little lower scoring like 24-14)
    • The reason I see this as a “most likely” outcome is the Bills just appear stronger in a lot of ways and I see a lot of holes in the Chiefs at this point. Also, the Bills defense just seems so solid and built to stop KC but now doesn’t even have to worry about Tyreek.
  • 4 out of 10 times, it’s a close game that doesn’t go “nuclear”
    • In this scenario, the Bills aren’t able to pull away and the Chiefs slow things down a bit, knowing that they can’t afford to fall way behind, and that “keeping things close into the 4th quarter” is key for them.
    • Either team could win a game like this, but the idea here is it would end up something like 27-23 with gradual production throughout the game, rather than last year’s 42-36 game that featured repeated big plays for the last 20 minutes.
  • 1 out of 10 times, we would get a nuclear game like last year’s playoff matchup
    • This would require a huge let down from the Bills defense and the Chiefs receivers would finally be doing something and creating separation and yards after the catch.
    • The most likely path to a monster game would probably be the Chiefs getting an early lead, which would most likely be created by early turnovers or offensive miscues by the Bills (something we’ve seen them do twice this year against the Dolphins and Ravens). The reasoning here is that the Bills defense is so good, it’s unlikely the Chiefs come out and are just marching down the field on them for scores to build a lead. They’ll need some field position help.

Some things to notice in my breakdown of things:

  • Really hard for me to see the Bills offense not producing at a decent level in any scenario.
  • The Chiefs offense could get dusted by the Bills defense but could also short circuit themselves a bit by trying to keep things close.
  • Even in a “shootout” scenario, it seems like the Chiefs would score a decent amount of points but would have limited fantasy production from receptions and yards due to shorter fields.
    • The nature of the Chiefs at this point is hard to predict, even in a “shootout” environment, the production could be extremely spread out.

This game has been talked about all week, and there are no shortage of takes, so I’ll try to get to the point in my player specific DFS thoughts:

  • Josh Allen scored 39 points last week and his price didn’t move. He has scored 30+ points in four of five games. He’s a great play.
  • Stacking partners for me are Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Dawson Knox::
    • Stefon Diggs is Stefon Diggs.
    • Gabe Davis is fully healthy. In his last three fully healthy games, his stat lines are::
      • 3 rec, 171 yards, 2 TDs on 6 targets
      • 4 rec, 88 yards, 1 TD on 5 targets
      • 8 rec, 201 yards, 4 TD on 12 targets (vs. KC in playoffs)
      • I get the fact that last week’s game was highly variant and somewhat fluky on a low target count, but isn’t there also a chance the Bills say, “oh yea, that guy’s really good, we should throw it to him more.”
    • Knox has played 70% or more snaps in every game he’s played. His snaps dipped from his usual “close to 90% role” from last season in Weeks 2 to 4 as he battled a foot injury. He sat out last week to rest the injury before this huge game against KC and practiced fully on Friday. I’d expect 80%+ snaps, and if the Chiefs focus on stopping Diggs/Davis on the perimeter (as they should), Knox could easily see six to eight targets and be featured near the goal line.
  • Devin Singletary is in a great spot this week. His price has dipped some and he’s had a much bigger role in the Bills competitive games against good opponents this year. I would think on the road against the Chiefs would qualify as a good opponent and competitive situation. Similar to Knox, assuming the Chiefs try to contain the explosiveness of the Bills downfield passing game, Singletary should have plenty of room to operate on the ground and in the receiving game. Mind you, he caught 13 passes over two weeks against the Dolphins and Ravens.
  • Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes. He’s priced a bit too close to Allen for my liking, but I’ll be playing some of him. 
    • My biggest concern with playing Mahomes is that if he “gets there” for his price, it’s almost certainly in a game environment where the Bills also score a lot, which means Allen is also probably getting there in a similar fashion, and the “risk” of Mahomes in a tougher spot is a lot to take on if I’m unlikely to see much advantage from being “right.”
    • Because of that thought process, I’ll probably have Singletary on any Mahomes roster because that’s the one way I see Mahomes paying off his salary and separating from Allen.
  • Travis Kelce is a monster, but his price tag is just so high. As JM alluded to, if I play Kelce, I’ll have him with Mahomes due to their high correlation and the fact that if Kelce gets there at his price, Mahomes is almost certainly getting there too.
  • MVS and Juju Smith-Schuster are somewhat interesting at receiver, though JuJu is hard to trust and appears overpriced. MVS is probably my favorite option on KC and looked really good last week. He has the skill set to break things open, if anyone is going to.
  • No interest in the KC backfield on the main slate, but could see myself using some Jerick McKinnon on the Afternoon Only slate.
  • On rosters without offensive players from this game, I really like using the Bills defense.
  • My favorite “stacks” around this game:
    • Allen + Davis + Knox + MVS
    • Mahomes + Kelce + Singletary (can add MVS or replace Kelce with MVS)
    • Allen + Diggs + Knox + MVS
    • Allen (or Mahomes) + Diggs + Davis + MVS + Kelce (using top 2 receiving options from both teams, game like last year’s playoff game)
    • Allen + any 2 receiving options + KC Defense (Chiefs build a lead through turnovers and maybe a D/ST TD scenario, followed by Allen going nuclear for 3 quarters)

By MadDukes22 >>

Game Overview

  • O/U of 54 is highest on the slate. BUF -2.5
  • BUF Pace: 67 plays/60 (12th) // 65% pass rate (6th) // 25.9 sec/snap (10th) 
  • KC Pace: 68 plays/60 (10th) // 62 % pass rate // 26.9 sec/snap (18th)
  • OFF DSR: BUF .779 (2nd) // KC .800 (1st)
  • DEF DSR: BUF .684 (8th) // KC .746 (26th)
  • TOP/60: BUF 29:50 (20th) // KC 31:27 (5th)

Allen

  • First among QBs in DK pts (31.9) // Lamar second (28.8)
  • 5th most rushing att // 4 most rushing yards // 2nd in YPC (6.4) among QBs
  • Only QB avg over 300 yds/g (330) // 2 games with 400+ yds(Tua only other QB with a 400+)
  • Leads NFL is EPA/play (.28) including when pressured (0.07)
  • 3rd in 20+ yd completions (20) // 1st in 40+ yd completions (6)

BUF Rushing

  • In Bills 2 competitive games (MIA & BAL) Singletary has out-snapped 80:20% and out-touched Moss & Cook 33:13
  • Singletary is avg: 5 TGT/g // 4 rec/g // 12 touch/g // 63 yds/g // 10.7 DK pts/g // 13 OEP/g

BUF Receiving

  • With Crowder, McKenzie, and Kumerow out Wk 5
    • Snaps: Davis 46 // Diggs 42 // Shakir 38 // Hodgins 13 // Gentry 11
    • TGTs: Diggs 11 // Davis 6 // Hodgins 6 // Shakir 5 // Gentry 1
  • Davis leads NFL in YPR (28.1) of players with more than 3 receptions
  • Diggs NFL ranks: TGTs (6th) // Rec (3rd) // Yds (4th) // TDs (1st) // 20+ (5th) // 40+ (1st)

BUF D

  • Second fewest points allowed in NFL and have yet to give up more than 21 points
  • 6th in sacks (16) and 1st in INTs (8)
  • 4th fewest passing yards and 2 fewest passing TDs
  • Lowest QB rating against (65.2)

Mahomes

  • Leading NFL in TDs (15) with only 2 INTs
  • 3rd in EPA/play (.23)
  • 4th in 20+ yd comp (19) 
  • Most pass att in20 (47) // in10 (26) // in5 (16)

KC Rushing

  • Snaps: CEH (24/23/24/43/31) // Jerick (26/26/30/17/35) // Pacheco (16/5/5/17/2)
  • Touches: CEH (10/12/12/20/12) // Jerick (7/6/7/3/10) // Pacheco (12/2/3/11/1)
  • RZ Opps: CEH (2/0/3/3/4) // Jerick (0/3/3/2/2) // Pacheco (3/0/1/3/0)
  • OEP/g: CEH (15) // Jerick (9) // Pacheco (5)

KC Receiving

  • Kelce has 7-10 TGTs in every game (8.4)
  • JuJu has 8 TGTs in every game but one (3)
  • Kelce leads all TEs in TPRR (32.8%) and YPRR (2.71)
  • Kelce is 16th in Yds (347) and 1st in TDs (7) among all TEs & WRs
  • Sky Moore play season high 33% of the snaps in Wk 5
  • Moore has 7 TGTs in last 2 games // Mecole 6 TGTs in last 2 games

KC D

  • 5th highest QB rating against (103.3) and most passing TDs allowed (12)
  • 8th in sacks (13) but only 1 INT
  • 3rd worst comp % against (69.3)

Kickoff Sunday, Oct 16th 8:20pm Eastern

Cowboys (
18.25) at

Eagles (
24.75)

Over/Under 43.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Cowboys Run D
9th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
5th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
8th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Eagles Run D
4th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
21st DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
21st DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
7th DVOA/9th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday night football should be fun as Dallas and their overachieving defense/quarterback take on the NFL’s last undefeated team, the Eagles. Dallas lost their starting quarterback midway through Week 1 but is still 4-1 thanks to Cooper Rush doing just enough at quarterback, and their defense absolutely smashing. They have yet to allow an opponent to reach even 20 points against them. This game has a total of 42 points with Philly favored by 6.5, which means a very healthy implied total of 27.5 for the Eagles (against an offense that has, again, given up at most 19 points in a game) and a terrible total of just 14.5 points for the Cowboys (yikes). 

Philadelphia

On the Philly side, Miles Sanders has really emerged this season, playing a season-high 74% of the snaps last week. Sanders is averaging a healthy 17.4 carries per game (though a 27-carry game against Jacksonville is skewing that somewhat), but he should be a shoo-in for 15-ish carries with upside for more here, plus a couple of targets. The matchup tilts to the ground, with Dallas 4th in DVOA against opposing passing attacks but just 18th against the run. We should expect to see a healthy dose of Sanders and Hurts rushing plays in this one. While Hurts is (obviously) the best overall play in this game, Sanders brings a solid floor and ceiling combination for $8,400. Behind Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell will mix in for an RB2 role that has resulted in an average of about 5 opportunities per game – i.e. not useful unless Sanders gets hurt or Gainwell finds his way into the end zone. At $6,200, Gainwell is hard to play unless you are just trying to be intentionally contrarian by paying up for a guy that should come with sub-10% ownership. Boston Scott missed the last two games but should be back for this one and can also be expected to handle a couple of opportunities. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, the Eagles will trot out Devonta Smith, A.J. Brown, and Quez Watkins as their primary wide receivers with Zach Pascal playing a rotational role, and then Dallas Goedert, Jack Stoll, and Grant Calcaterra at tight end. I love A.J. Brown as a player and he’s averaging a healthy 9 targets per game, but at $10.6k he needs to blow up to be optimal. An elite player is never a bad play, but when price is considered, I’m likely to focus more of my exposure on the significantly cheaper Smith and Goedert at $7.4k and $6.8k, respectively. Smith is playing more snaps and running more routes than AJB, and though he’s drawn fewer targets, he’s still averaging 7.6 per game. So, effectively, I can pay about 2/3 the price for 85% of the target volume – seems like a good deal to me. I’m still waiting for the Dallas Goedert blowup game (we ALMOST had it last week when he got to 8/95/0, but he just missed the 100-yard bonus and didn’t get in the end zone), and while he isn’t in the elite tier of tight end, he’s priced around where we normally see guys like Dalton Schultz, T.J. Hockenson, etc., and I think he’s clearly a step above that tier. Love both Smith and Goedert. Watkins is (usually) a field stretcher who can hit for a long touchdown from anywhere but has a zero-point floor with no catches in three of five games so far. At his price, his floor and median outcomes are worse than the kickers he’s priced next to, but his ceiling is higher. Pascal is good for a target or two per game, while Stoll and Calcaterra have just two and one targets each on the season, respectively, and are thus very thin MME punt options. 

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By LexMiraglia10 >>

Jalen Hurts:

  • Prior to Stafford’s 308 yds in comeback mode last week, QBs vs DAL had been averaging just 194.3 yds/g
  • Hurts pass yds: 243 // 333:1:1 // 340:3 // 204:0:1 // 239
  • Hurts rush yds: 90:1 // 57:2 // 20 // 38:1 // 61:2
  • Hurts already has 3 games of 15+ rush att
  • QB rushing vs DAL: Burrow (26) // Jones (79)
  • QB rushing vs DAL in 2021: Hurts (35) // Darnold (35:2) // Murray (44)
  • Hurts vs 2021 DAL: 326:2:2, 35

PHI WRs:

  • Top WRs vs DAL: Evans (5:71:1) // Higgins (6:71:1) // Shepard (5:49) // Dotson (3:43:1) // Kupp (7:125:1)
  • PHI WR tg: AJB (13 / 8 / 10 / 7 / 7) // Smith (4 / 7 / 12 / 4 / 11)
  • Yards: AJB (155 / 69 / 85:1 / 95 / 32) // Smith (0 / 80 / 169:1 / 17 / 87)
  • Alignment: AJB (77% Wide, 23% Slot) // Smith (79% Wide, 21% Slot)
  • 87% of Trevon Diggs snaps have come out wide at right CB
  • ADOT: AJB (11.5) // Smith (9.8)
  • DAL has allowed the 2nd fewest completed air yds and 11th most YAC
  • Smith vs DAL in 2021: 3:28 // 3:41

Dallas Goedert:

  • TEs vs DAL: Hurst (24) // Bellinger (40) // WAS (38) // Higbee (46)
  • Goedert tg: 4 / 6 / 4 / 6 / 9
  • Goedert yds: 60 / 82 / 26:1 / 72 / 95
  • Goedert vs DAL career: 44:1 // 69:1 // 91:1 // 15 // 38 // 66
  • Goedert has a tiny 3.3 aDOT on the season
  • Goedert leads the league by wide margin with 11.6 YAC/rec

Miles Sanders:

  • RBs vs DAL: Fournette: (127, 10) // Mixon (57, 26) // Saquon (81:1, 45) // WAS (137, 30) // LAR (33, 30)
  • Sanders rush att: 13 // 17 // 15 // 27 // 15
  • Sanders rushing: 96:1 // 80 // 46 // 134:2 // 58
  • Sanders vs DAL career: (21, 11) // (79:1, 77) // (57:1, 27) // (27, 28)

Cooper Rush:

  • Rush since 2021: 325:2:1 // 235:1 // 215:1 // 223:2 // 102:0
  • He’s thrown 40, 31, 31, 27, 16 att in his starts
  • DAL offensive pts in rush starts: 20 // 20 // 23 // 25 // 16
  • No QB vs PHI has topped 250 yds (Kyler, Cousins, Goff, Wentz, Lawrence)

DAL WRs:

  • Targets in Rush starts: Cooper (13 /-/-/-/-) // Lamb (8 / 11 / 12 / 8 / 8) // Brown (2 / 5 / 7 / 6 / 2) // Gallup (-/-/-/ 3 / 5)
  • Yards in Rush starts: Cooper (122:1) // Lamb (112 / 75 / 87:1 / 97:1 / 53) // Brown (91:1 / 54 / 61 / 5) // Gallup (24:1 / 44)
  • Leading WRs vs PHI: St Brown (64:1) // Thielen (52) // McLaurin (102) // Agnew (50:2) // Hollywood (78:1)
  • Lamb vs PHI career: 2:45 // 3:66 // 3:65:1, 19:1 // 4:27, 19
  • Noah Brown still out-snapped Gallup in W5 despite an increase in targets for Gallup

DAL RBs:

  • Rush att: Elliott (10 / 15 / 15 / 19 / 22) // Pollard (6 / 9 / 13 / 8 / 8)
  • Elliott hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts since W10 in 2021 when he scored 2 TDs and a 2pt conversion
  • Eliott hasn’t scored 25+ DK pts since W5 in 2021 when he scored 2 TDs on his 24 touches
  • Pollard hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts since W2 in 2021 (16:140:1)
  • RBs vs PHI: DET (172:3) // MIN (25) // WAS (52:1) // JAC (61) // ARI (89:1)
  • DAL RBs vs PHI in 2021: Elliot (116:2 / 90) // Pollard (65) // Clement (80:1)

Kickoff Monday, Oct 17th 8:15pm Eastern

Broncos (
20.75) at

Chargers (
24.75)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Broncos Run D
31st DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
28th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
6th DVOA/18th Yards per pass
Chargers Run D
26th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
12th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
27th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
12th DVOA/23rd Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 6 comes to a close as the Broncos visit the Chargers in what probably looked like an exciting game when the NFL was making the schedule, but now apparently Russell Wilson is dust and so it looks like another tedious island game. But, at least we have Showdown to make even terrible games interesting (or at least profitable)! The game has a modest total of 45.5 with the Chargers favored by 4.5, which tells us how the field is likely to build for this one. 

Denver

On the Broncos side, the backfield is now Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone following Javonte Williams’ season-ending injury. Last week, we saw how this played out, with MG3 seeing 56% of the snaps to Boone’s 41%, and Gordon seeing 15 carries/3 targets to Boone’s 7 carries/3 targets. On a team with a struggling quarterback and facing a defense that is better against passing than rushing, we can expect Denver to lean on their run game here for as long as the game flow allows but be aware of the risk that MG3 and Boone carry in builds predicated on the Chargers winning handily. Given their modest prices, I think you can play them together but would not pair them both with Russ, unless building for an unexpected Broncos 5-1 curb stomping. We also have a bit of a wildcard here: both MG3 and Boone are questionable, and while both are expected to play, the Broncos are also likely to have Latavius Murray active in this one. There’s nothing to really point to this, but if MG3 and/or Boone are banged up, Murray could play more than most people would expect. It’s a thin play, but one with upside if you’re playing a bunch of tourney rosters. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, the Broncos will trot out Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy as their dynamic duo, with a pile of randomness and chaos behind them. Sutton leads Jeudy in targets 46-29, in receiving yards 417-236, and in red zone targets 9-5. Jeudy is a great talent and deserves plenty of consideration, but Sutton is clearly the stronger overall play and the $1,400 price difference between them does not sufficiently reflect the difference in their roles. Sutton is clearly too cheap in this one (normally a wide receiver averaging 16 DK points per game would be somewhere in the $9.5k – $10.5k range). Behind these two, yikes. K.J. Hamler and Kendall Hinton have traded off the WR3 role all season but it looks like Hamler took it back after a couple of games with very low snaps, possibly due to recovering from the injury that caused him to miss Week 2 . . . but Hamler also only has four targets on the season. Tyrie Cleveland and/or Montrell Washington will play a handful of snaps and can be used in MME pools, with Cleveland the (slightly) better play; or, the less bad play, more realistically. At tight end, the Broncos use all of Eric Saubert, Eric Tomlinson, Andrew Beck, and Albert Okwuegbunam, making all of them tournament only plays. Saubert leads the position in snaps and targets, Tomlinson is a blocker who can largely be disregarded, Beck is also primarily a blocker (52 receiving yards in Week 1 but just 1 target and 0 catches since), while Albert O is a talented pass catcher who has found his way into the doghouse somehow (5/33/0 in Week 1 on 6 targets, but then just five targets since then while his snaps have vanished). All of these dudes are dart throws, and I would rank them as Saubert (the safest), Albert (risky but upside), Beck, and then Tomlinson. 

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Overview

  • Total of 45.5
  • LAC favored by 4.5
  • These teams split their games last season: (LAC 13 DEN 28) // (DEN 13 LAC 34)
  • LAC has scored 30+ in last two games (30 @ CLE, 34 @ HOU)
  • DEN didn’t score any TDs last week
  • They’ve only broke 16 pts in one game (12, 23, 11, 16, 16)
  • DEN ranks tied for last in offensive TDs/g (1.2) & 32nd in red zone TD % (21.43)

Russell Wilson

  • 4 TDs:1 INT // 2 games with 0 TDs
  • Broke 300+ pass yds once (1st game of season): (274, 237, 184, 219, 340)
  • Rushing yds:atts WK1 & WK2: (1:2, 2:3) // WKs 3-5 (6:17, 4:29:1 TD, 4:22)
  • LAC allows 18.1 DK pts/g to QBs (14th most)
  • Wilson DK pts: (20.8, 12.1, 9.1, 27.5, 11.2)

DEN WRs

  • Sutton has 10 or more tgts in last 3 of 4 games (11, 7, 10, 11)
  • Jeudy has yet to see 10 in a game all season (8, 5, 6, 3, 7)
  • Tgt share: (Sutton 28%) // (Jeudy 18%) // No other WR over 3%
  • Sutton’s 9.2 tgts/g is 14th among WRs
  • He has 1 game over 100 receiving yds (74, 52, 97, 122, 72)
  • LAC allows 37.9 DK pts/g to WRs (11th most)

DEN RBs

  • Gordon saw a season high 15 rush attempts last week with Javonte out
  • He still only played on 56% of snaps // Boone played on 41%
  • Gordon last season vs LAC: (17:83, 4.9 DK pts) // 10:43, 10.2)
  • Boone last week: (7:38, 3:47-3 tgts // 11.5 DK pts)
  • LAC allows 130.0 rush yds/g (25th entering the week)
  • They’ve allowed a hundred yard rusher in 3 straight: (Chubb 134, Pierce 131, Robinson 100)
  • Each of these RBs scored, Chubb scored twice
  • LAC allowes 33.8 DK pts/g to RBs (most in NFL)

DEN TEs

  • Albert O’s playing time has decreased since the start of the season with snap counts of 44, 38, 24, 1, 15
  • Eris Saubert’s have went up: 18, 26, 35, 41, 41
  • Saubert saw a season high in tgts for DEN TEs last week with 7
  • LAC allows 11.0 DK pts/g to TEs (13th fewest)

Justin Herbert

  • DEN hasn’t allowed 200+ pass yds this season
  • Herbert ranked 2nd in pass yds/g coming into week 6 (295.6)
  • He’s thrown for 300+ twice (228, 340, 297, 334, 279)
  • 30+ pass attempts in every game (34, 39, 45, 48, 34)
  • LAC ranks 5th in pass attempts/g (40.0)
  • DEN has allowed 34.0 (12th most)
  • DEN allows 11.1 DK pts/g to QBs (least in NFL)

LAC WRs

  • Williams DK pts this season w/o Keenan: (28.3, 8.5, 22.0, 26.4)
  • Double digit targets in last 3 of 4: (13, 11, 6, 10)
  • 100+ yards in the three he saw 10+ tgts (134, 120, 113)
  • Joshua Palmer tgts: (6, 1, 9, 8, 4)
  • DEN allows the 3rd fewest DK pts/g to WRs (27.1)

LAC RBs

  • Ekeler was averaging 35 rush yds/g before last weeks 173 
  • LAC had 256 total rush yards weeks 1-4 // 235 last week
  • 5 total TDs in past 2 games (3 rush, 2 rec)
  • DK pts: (38.9, 34.9, 13.3, 18.4, 11.2)
  • Joshua Kelley saw a season high 10 rush attempts last week (10:49:1 TD)
  • DEN allows 20.3 DK pts/g to RBs (9th least)

Gerald Everett

  • Tgts: (3, 6, 6, 10, 4)
  • Everett saw season lows in tgts (3), catches (1), & yds (2) last week
  • Previous weeks: (5:61:1TD-6 tgts) // (2:25-6 tgts) // (6:71-10 tgts) // (3:54:1 TD-4 tgts)
  • He’s scored double digit DK pts in 3 of 5: (1.2, 17.1, 4.5, 13.1, 14.4)
  • DEN allows 11.2 DK pts/g to TEs (14th fewest)