NFL ???? Props!
Profit-To-Date:
$1,378
NFL Props Insider:
ROS = $159 || Weekly $19!!!
NBA ???? Props!
NFL Props are great.
NBA Props are better.
NBA Props Insider:
Season = $299 || Weekly $29!!!
Profit-To-Date:
$1,378
NFL Props Insider:
ROS = $159 || Weekly $19!!!
NFL Props are great.
NBA Props are better.
NBA Props Insider:
Season = $299 || Weekly $29!!!
Week 6 begins with another one of these incredibly thrilling island game matchups as the Commanders visit the Bears. The game has a not-super-exciting total of just 38 points with Chicago favored by 1. What fun. But there’s money to be won!
We’ll start with the Bears and the guy who is in contention for the best skill position play in the game in David Montgomery. Montgomery returned from missing the last two weeks and stepped back into a 72% snap rate, seeing 16 running back opportunities compared with just four for backup Khalil Herbert. I was expecting Herbert to be a little more involved than this, but it seems this is still Monty’s backfield. Montgomery is a home favorite three-down running back with a 51.1% route participation rate so far, and a solid 1.65 yards per route run, which is higher than Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall, and even Christian McCaffrey! The only downside is the matchup, as Washington ranks 6th in run defense DVOA but just 29th against the pass, creating a strength-on-strength matchup (or . . . I don’t know . . . stoppable force meets movable object?). Chicago wants to run the ball and that’s the strength of their offense (such as it is), while the Bears are ill-equipped to take advantage of the weakest parts of the Commander D. If we expect a low-scoring game, even a modest line like 60 rushing yards with a couple of catches could put Monty in the optimal lineup. Behind Monty, Herbert will mix in for a handful of touches, and he’s shown the ability to break big plays, so despite the high price he’s at least worth considering in your MME player pools.
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, the Bears will run out Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet as full-time players, with Equanimeous St. Brown, Dante Pettis, and Ihmir Smith-Marsette in rotational roles. It’s hard to get excited about anyone on this low-volume passing attack in which Justin Fields is averaging just 17.6 pass attempts per game (lol), but at least Mooney has big per-play upside. Yay? Kmet is coming off his best game of the year with . . . wait for it . . . a 4/45/0 performance. And that’s his best game, really. At some point, he’ll probably find his way into the end zone. If there’s a time for the Chicago passing attack to get going, it’s here, against one of the league’s worst passing offenses, but we know volume is going to be low even if the Bears are playing from behind. Of the rotational guys, St. Brown saw his snaps drop down to 62% last week while Smith-Marsette saw his most playing time of the year, bouncing up from a previous high of 10% of the snaps to a new high of 38%. Because he didn’t do much with him, he’s still priced at just $600, but this does appear to be a player whose role is on the rise; that still isn’t likely to lead to much in the way of target volume but I’d view him as just as viable as St. Brown or Pettis, who are all basically GPP dart throw options. Fields himself, of course, has his floor buoyed by rushing upside, which gives him a strong chance of landing in the optimal lineup even if he has a poor game (like all of his games so far this year).
By LexMiraglia10 >>
Overview:
Justin Fields:
Darnell Mooney:
Cole Kmet:
CHI RBs:
Carson Wentz:
WAS WRs:
WAS RBs:
Everything starts with the defense in San Francisco, which makes sense when your unit has allowed the fewest yards per drive, fewest points per drive, and lowest drive success rate, all by significant margins. Consider this, their 1.45 points per drive value on offense ranks 30th in the league, and they still rank sixth in net points per drive! They have paired that stalwart defense with a slow pace of play on offense to mask the inefficiencies of their quarterback, leading to a 22nd-ranked 59.8 offensive plays per game. Injuries have also played a part in their 2022 path after the team lost its starting running back and starting quarterback within the first 17 offensive plays in Week 1 and Week 2, respectively. Speaking of the inefficiencies of their quarterback, here are some of Jimmy Garoppolo’s ranks in various efficiency metrics so far this year: 33rd in clean pocket completion percentage, 29th in true completion percentage, 24th in accuracy rating, 21st in QBR, 32nd in completion percentage versus zone coverages, and 28th in expected fantasy points per game. Yikes! Trey Lance might not have been it for the 49ers this season, but Jimmy Garoppolo definitely wasn’t it. Yet, the 49ers find themselves atop the NFC West with a record of 3-2 after losing to the Bears in the Week 1 waterworks game with Trey Lance at quarterback and losing to the Broncos on the road at Mile High by a score of 11-10 in Week 3.
The running back situation has devolved into an alpha role that is more beta in snap rate, with Jeff Wilson Jr. leading the way in weekly snap rate and workload after significant injuries to both Elijah Mitchell and Tyrion Davis-Price. That said, Wilson has played a whopping five more offensive snaps than fullback Kyle Juszczyk over the previous four games, while Juszczyk has a combined 10 running back opportunities over five games. That should help to explain the emphasis on heavy offensive alignments from this team, a team that plays from 11-personnel at the lowest rate in the league. All of that to say, even though Jeff Wilson is the unquestioned lead back in San Francisco, we can’t really expect substantially more than the 18 running back opportunities he has averaged over his four starts this year. The matchup on the ground yields a well above-average 4.64 net-adjusted line yards metric against an opponent largely considered a run-funnel defense. Tevin Coleman has rejoined the fray in San Francisco, hilariously sniping two touchdowns on 19 offensive snaps in Week 5, which led to his ultimate signing back to the active roster on Wednesday of this week. That could serve to further lessen the theoretical upside of Wilson after the alpha back had this backfield virtually to himself over the previous two weeks (rookie Jordan Mason and Tevin Coleman combined for only six offensive snaps through Weeks 3 and 4). Finally, all backs in the San Francisco backfield should largely be thought of as yardage-and-touchdown backs considering the team has targeted the position only 19 times through five weeks, which is tied with the Bears for the third fewest in the league.
The 49ers attempt only 27.6 passes per game through five weeks, which ranks 28th in the league and also makes a good deal of sense considering the composition of their team. With that consideration understood, there are very few teams that can push San Francisco into increased pass volume, and Atlanta likely isn’t one of them. That should leave Jimmy Garoppolo in his standard range of 28-30 pass attempts, similar to his range in all three starts thus far. What’s gross is the fact that he has yet to complete more than 18 passes in a game this season. The counter to the “Jimmy G is inefficient” argument is the insane efficiency of the 49ers pass-catchers, highlighted by the unreal, and likely unsustainable, 14.47 yards per completion value over the previous two weeks. All of George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk are continually towards the top of the league in yards after the catch per reception and other efficiency metrics, which highlights the dynamism and upside-generating scheme. Basically, each of these pass-catchers has a low floor due to the low overall pass volume of the offense, but they all carry equally as high ceilings due to the unreal per-touch efficiency. Deebo will also likely mix in a handful of rush attempts. Situational wide receivers Jauan Jennings and Ray-Ray McCloud III and pass-blocking tight ends Charlie Woerner and Ross Dwelley can be left out of fantasy consideration altogether.
By Dwprix >>
Overview:
Jimmy Garoppolo
SF WRs
SF RBs
SF TEs
Marcus Mariota
ATL WRs
ATL RBs
Kyle Pitts
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Bailey Zappe has acquitted himself nicely over the last two weeks in relief of the injured Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer. Bill Belichick is reluctant to divulge any information on the status of Jones heading into this matchup with the Browns, but it would be shocking if he played based on the reports of the injury when it first occurred. While some media members are trying to stir up some QB controversy for the Patriots, the reality is that Zappe has benefitted from a Packers team that didn’t step on the gas and force him to play from behind, and then a Lions team that laid a complete egg and didn’t force the Patriots to have to force the issue at all last week. Zappe has played well relative to expectations, no doubt, but it will be interesting to see if he can keep it up on the road against a team that has consistently controlled game flow and been efficient on offense.
The Browns defense is the shining light for the Patriots in this matchup. After a couple of solid seasons, the Browns now have a bottom-3 defensive unit in most metrics and have been specifically bad against the run where they rank dead last in both PFF grade and DVOA. The loss of Damien Harris hurts the ability of the Patriots to fully lean into their running game, but they will certainly lean heavily on Rhamondre Stevenson in this spot and should move the ball efficiently and keep Zappe in positive down-and-distance situations behind their 6th ranked run blocking unit up front. Early down runs that move the chains or set up manageable third and short situations will be the recipe for the Patriots here, with short area passing and hitches and slants used as a means of exploiting a Browns coverage unit that plays primarily zone concepts and blitzes at a bottom-10 rate in the league.
By Alex88 >>
OVERVIEW
Bailey Zappe
NE Passing Attack
Rhamondre Stevenson
Jacoby Brissett
CLE Passing Attack
CLE Rushing Attack
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The 3-2 Jets. Is that a typo? Nope, just checked, the Jets are really 3-2. They’ll let anyone have a winning record these days. Unfortunately for Robert Saleh’s Jets, their record is deceptive, having lost decidedly to the Bengals/Ravens, while recording victories against the Browns (epic collapse), the Steelers (played the first half with Mitch Trubisky), and the Dolphins (third-string QB). The Jets first two wins were by a combined five points, before finally getting a win going away against the Dolphins using Skylar “Days of our Lives” Thompson at QB. The Jets are lucky to be 3-2 but if you ask Robert Saleh, they’ve been “punching people in the mouth.”
One thing Saleh does appear to have figured out is that Zach Wilson isn’t very good at football. The Jets want to run the ball regardless of who is playing QB, but it’s clear they are more willing to open things up with Joe Flacco. The Jets called run/pass splits of 17/59, 20/44, and 20/52 in their first three games. In the past two games with Wilson, the same splits have been 29/36 and 33/21. Game flow has something to do with those numbers but the change at QB more fully explains the switch in offensive philosophy. The Jets are going to be a run-heavy team with Wilson under center, especially if they can keep the game within two scores.
The Jets have played at the fastest overall pace in the league to start the year. Is that a typo? Nope, just checked, the Jets really are playing at the fastest pace in the NFL. They’ll let anyone play fast these days. The Jets are living up to their name and flying to the line of scrimmage, playing in the top ten in pace in all situations. In particular, it stands out how fast they’re playing when ahead (2nd in total pace), which shows the Jets are going to play with tempo regardless of the score.
The Packers have been solid against the pass (11th in DVOA) but trampled on the ground (30th in DVOA). The Packers secondary is led by Jaire Alexander who once again holds a top 25 position grade per PFF. The rest of the secondary is more solid than spectacular but there is no reason to attack the relative strength of a defense while they grade out so poorly against the run. The Packers present as a run funnel defense that forces teams to pass by taking a lead. Saleh is hoping to keep things close and hide Zach Wilson. Expect a “mouth punching” game plan from the Jets for as long as possible, with a chance they stay run heavy even down by multiple scores.
By Alex88 >>
OVERVIEW
Zach Wilson
NYJ Passing Attack
NYJ Rushing Attack
Aaron Rodgers
GB Passing Attack
GB Rushing Attack
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The Jaguars are attacking games in the first half and running with their tail between their legs in the second half and/or with a lead this season, trying to limp to victory. That has bitten them twice already this season in losses to the Eagles and Texans. By the numbers, the Jaguars have been a very balanced offense this year, with an expected pass rate almost exactly matching their actual pass rate through five weeks. Their true pass rate of 57.89% ranks 20th in the league while their ninth-ranked values in both offensive and defensive points per drive has them at third overall in net points per drive. Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence has appeared capable this season, with the offensive scheme not doing him any favors. His 7.8 intended air yards per pass attempt ranks 16th in the league while his 3.5 completed air yards per pass attempt ranks 19th. That said, the team has attempted only 31 passes from either RPO or play action, instead running a more “straight up” offense.
Things don’t get any rosier through their run game, one that is running behind an offensive line blocking to only 3.80 adjusted line yards, ranks 30th in power success rate, and ranks dead last in stuffed rate. Their backs are exceeding early expectations, combining to run for 4.45 running back yards per carry, which likely signals a regression to the mean at some point this year, particularly considering the team runs a relatively straightforward offense in scheme and design. James Robinson surprised most by not only making it back from a torn Achilles but exhibiting above average burst and efficiency metrics over the first three games of the year. That has been a different story over the last two games, as he has simultaneously seen his efficiency decline and ceded more snaps and opportunities to Travis Etienne. Expect some form of committee here, with recent trends indicating a 60/40 split in favor of Etienne. Consider this – Robinson averaged 20 running back opportunities over the first three weeks and has since been held to an average of 10 over the previous two weeks. One of those games came against the stout defense of the Eagles while one came against the relative sieve in the Texans, indicating what should be a changing of the guard in Jacksonville.
The Jaguars run primarily a straight-up, 11-personnel base offense with almost zero utilization of 21-personnel and below average rates of 12-personnel, meaning Christian Kirk, Marvin Jones, and Zay Jones should all be expected to play the majority of the offensive snaps in a standard week. Kirk leads the team with a 22.5% team target market share and 26.7% targets per route run rate, followed by 21.3% and 25.8% from Zay Jones in those two metrics, respectively. Only Marvin Jones holds an aDOT deeper than league average at 14.3 to pair with a 17.3% team target market share and 20.4% targets per route run rate. In all, there’s nothing really here to separate one from the other two, with all three falling within 30-39 total targets this year. Each of the three has seen exactly one game of double-digit targets through five weeks. Newcomer tight end Evan Engram joins the fray with one game of double-digit targets as well on a 20.2% targets per route run rate. In all, the team lands right at league average at 36.2 pass attempts per game that operates in a relatively spread nature amongst the top four pass-catchers.
By LexMiraglia10 >>
Trevor Lawrence:
JAC WRs:
JAC RBs:
Matt Ryan:
IND WRs:
IND RBs:
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The lofty PROE (seventh) and elevated overall pass rates (53.41%) from Minnesota make good on the promise by Kevin O’Connell coming into the season. So too does the increased emphasis on third-year, and budding star, wide receiver Justin Jefferson, who is being developed into a Cooper Kupp-like receiver capable of beating any coverages thrown at him. That said, Jefferson is not yet on Kupp’s level, with a 27.8% targets per route run rate that falls miles below. There is also nothing pointing to the run game as a relative weakness here, with the offensive line blocking to an above-average 4.85 adjusted line yards metric, also ranking in the top five in power success rate and open field yards created. We haven’t seen many breakaway runs from Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison, which is more of a reflection of those two than the run game or scheme. Most importantly, the Vikings play fast and actively try to score points with each possession.
After averaging a 73% snap rate starting the season, Dalvin Cook has not played over 63% of the offensive snaps over the past three weeks. That has made this backfield more of a 60/40 split with increased reliance on “1B” back Alexander Mattison. Cook’s 15.1 expected fantasy points per game rank only 15th in the league this year, further highlighting the shift in mindset with these two. Furthermore, Cook’s 15 targets rank only 24th at the position this year. Still, they remain on pace to match his aerial production over the previous four seasons in Minnesota (but are underwhelming, given what we heard heading into the year that his pass game role would grow under O’Connell). Basically, Dalvin’s rushes are decreasing while his pass game role remains stagnant. The matchup on the ground yields an average 4.305 net-adjusted line yards metric against a largely pass-funnel Dolphins defense (seventh in DVOA against the run and 32nd in DVOA against the pass).
Justin Jefferson’s 30.2% team target market share highlights how valuable he is to this offense and how elite he is at beating both man and zone coverages. He should see an increased rate of man coverage this week, with the Dolphins currently third in the league in man coverage rates. Good luck with that plan. Furthermore, the Dolphins are blitzing at above-average rates but have generated pressure at the third-lowest rate in the league, which could spell trouble against Kirk Cousins and his ability to pick apart an opposing defense when afforded a clean pocket. Adam Thielen continues to play virtually every snap and run a route on virtually every dropback, currently in a route at a 99.0% clip. His modest 19.2% target rate and gross 17.8% targets per route run rate indicate a “something’s got to give” situation – either he is washed and past his prime (possible, yet unlikely considering his high snap rate and route participation rates) or we should see some regression to the mean at some point. A matchup against heavier man coverage rates might not be when it happens, but something is going to give here soon. K.J. Osborn continues to operate as the clear WR3 and has a solid win rate against man coverages this year. The heavy emphasis on 11-personnel has meant his snap rate has routinely been in the 75%+ range, something that should remain rather sticky moving forward. Finally, Irv Smith is still splitting time with Johnny Mundt capping his ceiling in the process.
By Alex88 >>
OVERVIEW
Kirk Cousins
MIN Passing Attack
Dalvin Cook
Skylar Thompson
MIA Passing Attack
MIA Rushing Attack
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The Bengals average 69.8 offensive plays per game. That stat doesn’t mean much by itself because there are many different ways to get to a high number of plays per game. We primarily see it done in one of two ways; either a team’s defense is so poor that their offense gets the ball back faster (Detroit is a good example) or a team’s defense forces shorter drives and gives the ball back to their offense faster. Cincinnati is firmly entrenched in the latter example. So far this season, the Bengals hold the league’s second-best drive success rate allowed, second-best points allowed per drive, and the 10th fewest yards allowed per drive. That means that even though they rank in the middle of the league in offensive drive success rate (15th), their net drive success rate value ranks second overall (behind only Buffalo and ahead of Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Green Bay). Furthermore, their three losses have come through a combined eight total points, meaning this team is three bounces of the football away from being 5-0, and it’s primarily due to their defense.
Joe Mixon has played 66% or more of the offensive snaps in every week so far this year, averaging a 73.6% snap rate on the season. He ranks as the number one running back in expected fantasy points per game, with averages of 19.2 rush attempts and 5.4 targets per week. That said, his 3.7 yards per touch value ranks 54th and his true yards per carry value ranks 65th. Cincinnati’s offensive line is blocking to a 22nd-ranked 4.23 adjusted line yards value with only 3.35 running back yards per carry, indicating a situation that should regress to the mean at some point. Mixon’s 20 red zone opportunities rank second amongst running backs to only Kareem Hunt, and his zero touchdowns on seven carries inside the five rates as the worst red zone efficiency in the league. Something has got to give at some point for Mixon, it just might not be this week against a Saints defense allowing just 20.2 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields on the backs of the league’s top-ranked power run success rate. The pure rushing matchup yields an average 4.34 net-adjusted line yards metric. Expect Samaje Perine to continue in a strict change of pace role assuming he is healthy enough to play after being limited to start the week with an abdomen injury.
Injuries could force the Bengals pass game into one-dimensionality with Tee Higgins battling an ankle injury and starting tight end Hayden Hurst limited by a groin injury. As things currently stand, I would tentatively expect Higgins to miss this week while Hurst plays. Should that be the case, we’re likely to see Mike Thomas enter the starting lineup opposite Ja’Marr Chase. We also could see a heavier emphasis on 11-personnel similar to what we saw last week after Higgins left the game. Starting slot wide receiver Tyler Boyd played all but two offensive snaps, his first time over an 81% snap rate all year. The other variable here is the status of Saints corner Marshon Lattimore, who missed practice to start the week with an abdomen injury. That’s important for a couple of reasons, primarily due to the defensive tendencies shown by the Saints this year. Their 4-2-5 base nickel defense has adjusted to the opponent heavily this year, mixing and matching zone and man coverages to take away their opponents’ best chances of moving the football. Considering the injuries on each side and the relative weakness of the Bengals rush offense, it stands to reason that we see the Saints settle into heavier rates of Cover-2 and Cover-3 defensive alignments, which should benefit the short-area passing game but limit the splash play potential of the Bengals. That sets up well for Tyler Boyd, Hayden Hurst, and Joe Mixon to see a slight uptick in aerial usage while simultaneously muting the per-touch upside of all parties.
By LexMiraglia10 >>
Andy Dalton:
NOR WRs:
Alvin Kamara:
Joe Burrow:
Ja’Marr Chase:
Joe Mixon:
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The Ravens maintain a top-six Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) value but we must realize that their expected pass rate, based on game flow and situational play calling, is only 56.3%, which ranks third lowest in the league. That helps explain a low 54.3% overall pass rate and only 29.8 pass attempts per game, each of which ranks in the bottom 10 in the league. The context of those metrics is important, meaning this is not suddenly a pass-heavy offense with bankable volume across the board. Furthering the somewhat unexciting outlook is an opponent facing only 30.8 pass attempts per game. The Giants elevated average time of possession (31:07) and increased rush rates aid in that low number, but the reality is that the Giants remain largely untested, and their opponents to this point in the season have ranked: 32nd, 30th, 26th, 22nd, and 17th in pass attempts per game (the Ravens rank 25th at 29.8). To me, that’s simply schedule-induced variance more than it is a resounding indication of the effectiveness of the Giants defense. All of that to say, we should expect the Ravens to largely be able to attack in their preferred manner, which includes elevated rush rates and a focused, yet low volume, pass game.
The return to health of running back J.K. Dobbins has not yet translated to a lion’s share of the backfield workload, with snap rates through three healthy games of 43%, 50%, and 40%, leading to running back opportunity counts of nine, 17, and eight. Expect fullback Patrick Ricard to continue seeing elevated snap rates on a team that utilizes increased rates of heavy personnel alignments, primarily through the use of 21-personnel (“increased” as in “off the charts,” as the Ravens have run 21-personnel 40% or more in all but one game this year). Kenyan Drake should be on hand to serve as the change of pace/1B option to pair with Dobbins, while Justice Hill is working his way back from injury. The macro view here is any back should be treated as a low-volume yardage-and-touchdown back considering the offense has fed only 17 total targets to the running back position this year (third fewest). The pure rushing matchup yields a well above average 4.64 net-adjusted line yards metric against a Giants defense allowing a gaudy 5.10 yards per running back carry.
Mark Andrews is once again asserting dominance on the tight end position, responsible for a 98.7% route participation rate, a ridiculous 34.1% team target market share, a ludicrous 45.0% red zone team target market share, the most air yards at the position (482), the greatest air yards share (34.9%), and even the most unrealized air yards at the position (241). His 2.37 yards per route run value would rival the elite wide receivers, and he’s playing tight end, for Pete’s sake. To say that Mark Andrews is the focal point of this offense seems like a gross understatement. As such, even though we can’t ever project Lamar Jackson for more than 28-32 pass attempts (he has landed in this range in every game this season), we can assume, with a high degree of confidence, that Andrews can still reach double-digit (and high value) targets in most weeks. This week is no different. Things get a little dicey behind Andrews, particularly considering the status of lead wide receiver Rashod Bateman, who failed to practice on Wednesday after missing Week 5 (typically not a good sign for a return to game action). Devin Duvernay and Demarcus Robinson led the way in snaps a week ago, with Duvernay exhibiting his best “Deebo-lite” impression en route to seven targets and three carries. Duvernay has three offensive and one special teams touchdowns through five games and is a Pro Bowl-level talent in the return game, so the upside is there should his role expand again without Bateman. Robinson is a body on the field, with a low 14.3% targets per route run value and a low 56.4% route participation rate. He has yet to see more than four targets in a game this season. Tylan Wallace and James Proche split situational duties with 13 snaps and 18 snaps, respectively. Even with the injury to Bateman, everyone’s favorite breakout rookie tight end Isaiah Likely only saw 15 offensive snaps.
By Alex88 >>
OVERVIEW
Lamar Jackson
BAL Passing Attack
BAL Rushing Attack
Daniel Jones
NYG Passing Attack
Saquon Barkley
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The Tampa Bay offense appears to be firing again, with their core offensive players healthy and starting to get in sync. A matchup with the Falcons funneled the Bucs heavily towards the pass, as Tom Brady threw the ball 52 times compared to only 20 “non-kneel” rushing plays, a 73% pass rate, in a game that they never trailed and were ahead by multiple scores for about two-thirds of the game. This week, they face a Steelers defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per carry allowed, having just given up 424 passing yards to Josh Allen and the Bills, with a whopping 348 of those yards coming in the first half!!! What that tells us is that the Bucs, favored by eight points on the road in this matchup, should have the opportunity to attack the Steelers in whatever manner they choose.
After a slow offensive start to the season for the Bucs, they hold the highest Pass Rate Over Expectation over the last two weeks since Mike Evans and Chris Godwin both returned to the lineup. While the volume has returned, the passing game didn’t quite hit last week in the massive way that we occasionally saw it hit in previous years due to some bad touchdown luck and a couple of missed opportunities. They look good but are still just a bit shy of the well-oiled machine that a fully functioning Bucs passing game usually operates as. This week, they should have a chance to fully resurrect. The Steelers defense has become a shell of itself without TJ Watt, as they currently have PFF’s 23rd-graded pass rush despite an opening week performance where they dominated the Bengals (the only game in which Watt played). After seven sacks in that opening game, the Steelers have only three total sacks in the last four games. This will be a critical aspect of this game as the Bucs offensive line has struggled against some better pass rushes this year, but if Tom Brady is given a clean pocket with his weapons at his disposal then he is likely to pick up right where Josh Allen left off.
The Bucs are a team that follows the spirit of their leader, Tom Brady, and is aggressive and goes for the kill when they smell blood. It is hard to imagine a scenario where they watch last week’s film from the Steelers game against the Bills and don’t come out firing and trying to tear the lid off the game. The Bucs have thrown at a high rate only recently, but for the season they are playing at a torrid pace, ranking 2nd in the NFL in seconds-per-snap and 8th in situation-neutral pace of play.
By LexMiraglia10 >>
Kenny Pickett:
PIT WRs:
PIT RBs:
Tom Brady:
TB WRs:
Leonard Fournette:
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After an impressively inept two-plus seasons running the show, Matt Rhule was dismissed from his position as the Panthers Head Coach after last week’s ugly loss to the 49ers in which the Panthers once again showed very little resistance as they were methodically taken apart by the 49ers, who won by 20+ points and scored 37 points without doing anything exceptionally impressive. Taking over for Rhule will be Steve Wilks, who was previously a head coach for one season for the Cardinals during their season with Josh Rosen as the starting quarterback. The Panthers also fired their defensive coordinator, and Wilks has a background in defense, so it would make sense that most changes he makes will be on that side of the ball. On offense, Ben McAdoo is still running the show, so there is less likelihood of major changes, although Rhule being out may change the dynamics some, and we may see some adjustments as the Panthers may have different goals in mind than when they started the season (time to tank??).
Adding to the changes, Baker Mayfield will be out for some time after being injured in Week 5. Taking over will be PJ Walker, who has had a couple of spot starts in the last couple of years and actually won both games despite relatively modest stat lines. Walker may not set the world on fire himself, but he has shown the ability to get the ball to his playmakers and let them go to work. In Walker’s first start, DJ Moore had a stat line of one rush for 21 yards and seven receptions for 127 yards on eleven targets, while Curtis Samuel also had eight receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown – Christian McCaffrey did not play in that game. In Walker’s second start, CMC totaled 161 yards from scrimmage on 23 touches, and Walker spread the ball around to other receivers as the Panthers dominated the Cardinals. That was also the game Cam Newton returned to the Panthers and stole some of the scoring work.
Looking to this week, the Panthers currently rank top-10 in the NFL in Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE), but Baker Mayfield has the lowest average intended air yards of all quarterbacks through five weeks. The Rams have a run defense that is top-5 in most metrics and has personnel advantages all over, which may make it difficult for the Panthers to start by getting things going on the ground. As for passing defense, the Rams play man coverage at the lowest rate in the league and, despite blitzing at the 6th highest rate in the NFL, rank 31st in hurry rate. The Rams also face the 6th lowest average depth of target among all defenses this season. This tells us that Walker should be able to have time to drop back and make good decisions about where to go with the ball, with openings most likely to be in short to intermediate areas of the field against their soft zone coverages. While I don’t expect the Panthers to fully air it out with Walker, it is worth noting that on just six attempts this season, Walker’s total intended air yards are 10% of what Mayfield had for the entire season.
By MadDukes22 >>
Game Overview
PJ Walker
CMC
CAR Receivers
CAR D
Stafford
LAR Rushing
LAR Receiving
LAR D
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The Cardinals played a terrific game in Week 5, staying close to the previously dominant Eagles and having a chance late in the game before Kyler Murray had a brain fart at the end of the game that may or may not have been caused by sleep deprivation after the last “Double XP Week” on Call of Duty last Friday. All kidding aside, the close loss was probably the best overall performance they’ve had all season and provided some positive outlook going forward. This is good news, as the Cardinals head to a hostile environment for a road game. They enter with a 2-3 record and have a chance to be tied for the division lead if they win here, and then they get DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension in Week 7.
The Seahawks defense played man coverage on less than 10% of their snaps the first three weeks, before showing a clear shift in philosophy the last two weeks when they played man coverage on roughly 40% of their snaps, a number that would put them near the top-5 in the league if extrapolated for the whole season so far. It will be interesting to see if the Seahawks continue with this man-heavy approach this week, as they have given up 84 total points in the last two weeks since that change against an offense that was without their top two weapons (Lions without D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown), and an offense with a backup QB (Andy Dalton) who was missing two starting wide receivers (Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry) and also lost Chris Olave during the game. This decision point for the Seahawks will be an interesting one for the probability of success of the Cardinals offense, as the Cardinals have faced over 25% man coverage only once this season and that was in their Week 2 win over the Raiders, which was their highest scoring game of the season and also the only game in which they amassed over 400 total yards of offense. The Seahawks defense has also had wild swings in their blitz rates through the first five weeks, blitzing on 23, 16, 7, 2, and 33 of their snaps over each of the respective first five weeks. Seattle just appears to be grasping at straws defensively, and hoping something sticks. Unfortunately for us, this makes it hard to accurately project what their approach will be on a week-to-week basis and therefore hard to predict which players they are facing may be in the most advantageous spots to exploit their scheme. On the bright side, Seattle has been very bad at pretty much everything they’ve tried, so offensive success for their opponents is usually a safe bet in some fashion. So far this season, Seattle opponents score an average of 13.1 more points per game against Seattle than they do in their other games.
That’s a lot of information about the Seattle defense, but it’s necessary to evaluate the Arizona offense. The Cardinals don’t alter their scheme much week to week and approach most games with the same spread tendencies and formations, passing near the league average based on game flow expectations, and playing at a moderate pace in neutral game scripts. For weeks, I have spoken in my Edge writeups about the “vanilla” approach of Kliff Kingsbury and how difficult it is to have consistent production when not altering the approach for your personnel and opponents. However, games like this against very poor defenses are where Kingsbury’s scheme can have success and pad stats, making their season-long numbers look much better in the process. Consider this, the Cardinals have played five games this season and three of those games were against defenses ranked in the top half of the league while two of them were against defenses ranked in the bottom half of the league. The three games against top-half defenses were the Cardinals three losses, in which they averaged only 16.7 points per game. The two games against bottom-half defenses were their two wins, in which they averaged 27.5 points per game. The Seahawks, as outlined above, have the league’s worst defense by almost any metric and have made everyone look way better so far this year. It’s funny what happens when you can’t cover anyone and also don’t get pressure on the quarterback.
By Dwprix >>
Overview
Kyler Murray
ARI WRs
ARI RBs
ARI TEs
Geno Smith
SEA WRs
SEA RBs
SEA TEs
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This is it for the Bills. After being eliminated from the playoffs the last two years by the Chiefs, this game carries as much significance for the Bills as any regular season game will all year. While this one game won’t make or break the season, and a potential playoff matchup is obviously much more critical, the fact of the matter is that the Bills have built their team largely with getting past the Chiefs in mind. Their defense is built to create pressure without having to bring heavy blitzes (they rank 31st in the NFL in blitz rate), and this allows them to drop a lot of bodies into coverage and play shell and zone coverages (they rank 5th in the league in zone coverage rate). This combination has treated them well, as their defense has been dominant this year but will now face arguably their toughest test of the year in the Chiefs.
On the offensive side of the ball, Josh Allen and company have been humming and are coming off a dominant performance against the Steelers. They now face a Chiefs defense that has given up 60 points to the Bucs and Raiders the last two weeks and the Bills scored 74 points against them in two meetings last year. The eruption of Gabe Davis is a nice reminder to opponents that they can’t sell out to stop Stefon Diggs – something the Chiefs probably didn’t need to be reminded of after Davis dropped eight receptions for 201 yards and four touchdowns against them in the playoffs last year. The Chiefs defense is kind of in the middle of the pack in both blitz rate and zone coverage rate, meaning that they can be flexible depending on their opponent. The best approach for the Chiefs this week will likely be to drop more players into coverage and force the Bills to work the ball underneath and dare them to run the ball against light boxes – ironically the same strategy that opponents have used against Mahomes in recent years. The Bills will likely accept this early in the game and take chunk plays on the ground to move the ball and hope to force the Chiefs to tighten things up. This will be an interesting chess match, as the Bills pass the ball at over a 70% rate on the season but the Chiefs will do everything they can to encourage them to run the ball. All that being said, the Bills certainly have the talent to take their shots early in the game as well and could take the approach that they want to set the tone and get a lead early in this game, allowing their #2 PFF graded pass rush to tee off on a predictable Kansas City offense if Buffalo can force them to play from behind.
Nothing to see here, just move along . . .
I kid, I kid!! This game is clearly the cream of the crop and requires a lot of attention, as how you decide to deal with this game affects how you build the rest of the roster. I will start by explaining my belief in how this game plays out. Based on the personnel, tendencies, history, etc. – here are my “rough” expectations for the game, if it was played 10 times in this exact situation:
Some things to notice in my breakdown of things:
This game has been talked about all week, and there are no shortage of takes, so I’ll try to get to the point in my player specific DFS thoughts:
By MadDukes22 >>
Game Overview
Allen
BUF Rushing
BUF Receiving
BUF D
Mahomes
KC Rushing
KC Receiving
KC D
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Sunday night football should be fun as Dallas and their overachieving defense/quarterback take on the NFL’s last undefeated team, the Eagles. Dallas lost their starting quarterback midway through Week 1 but is still 4-1 thanks to Cooper Rush doing just enough at quarterback, and their defense absolutely smashing. They have yet to allow an opponent to reach even 20 points against them. This game has a total of 42 points with Philly favored by 6.5, which means a very healthy implied total of 27.5 for the Eagles (against an offense that has, again, given up at most 19 points in a game) and a terrible total of just 14.5 points for the Cowboys (yikes).
On the Philly side, Miles Sanders has really emerged this season, playing a season-high 74% of the snaps last week. Sanders is averaging a healthy 17.4 carries per game (though a 27-carry game against Jacksonville is skewing that somewhat), but he should be a shoo-in for 15-ish carries with upside for more here, plus a couple of targets. The matchup tilts to the ground, with Dallas 4th in DVOA against opposing passing attacks but just 18th against the run. We should expect to see a healthy dose of Sanders and Hurts rushing plays in this one. While Hurts is (obviously) the best overall play in this game, Sanders brings a solid floor and ceiling combination for $8,400. Behind Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell will mix in for an RB2 role that has resulted in an average of about 5 opportunities per game – i.e. not useful unless Sanders gets hurt or Gainwell finds his way into the end zone. At $6,200, Gainwell is hard to play unless you are just trying to be intentionally contrarian by paying up for a guy that should come with sub-10% ownership. Boston Scott missed the last two games but should be back for this one and can also be expected to handle a couple of opportunities.
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, the Eagles will trot out Devonta Smith, A.J. Brown, and Quez Watkins as their primary wide receivers with Zach Pascal playing a rotational role, and then Dallas Goedert, Jack Stoll, and Grant Calcaterra at tight end. I love A.J. Brown as a player and he’s averaging a healthy 9 targets per game, but at $10.6k he needs to blow up to be optimal. An elite player is never a bad play, but when price is considered, I’m likely to focus more of my exposure on the significantly cheaper Smith and Goedert at $7.4k and $6.8k, respectively. Smith is playing more snaps and running more routes than AJB, and though he’s drawn fewer targets, he’s still averaging 7.6 per game. So, effectively, I can pay about 2/3 the price for 85% of the target volume – seems like a good deal to me. I’m still waiting for the Dallas Goedert blowup game (we ALMOST had it last week when he got to 8/95/0, but he just missed the 100-yard bonus and didn’t get in the end zone), and while he isn’t in the elite tier of tight end, he’s priced around where we normally see guys like Dalton Schultz, T.J. Hockenson, etc., and I think he’s clearly a step above that tier. Love both Smith and Goedert. Watkins is (usually) a field stretcher who can hit for a long touchdown from anywhere but has a zero-point floor with no catches in three of five games so far. At his price, his floor and median outcomes are worse than the kickers he’s priced next to, but his ceiling is higher. Pascal is good for a target or two per game, while Stoll and Calcaterra have just two and one targets each on the season, respectively, and are thus very thin MME punt options.
By LexMiraglia10 >>
Jalen Hurts:
PHI WRs:
Dallas Goedert:
Miles Sanders:
Cooper Rush:
DAL WRs:
DAL RBs:
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Week 6 comes to a close as the Broncos visit the Chargers in what probably looked like an exciting game when the NFL was making the schedule, but now apparently Russell Wilson is dust and so it looks like another tedious island game. But, at least we have Showdown to make even terrible games interesting (or at least profitable)! The game has a modest total of 45.5 with the Chargers favored by 4.5, which tells us how the field is likely to build for this one.
On the Broncos side, the backfield is now Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone following Javonte Williams’ season-ending injury. Last week, we saw how this played out, with MG3 seeing 56% of the snaps to Boone’s 41%, and Gordon seeing 15 carries/3 targets to Boone’s 7 carries/3 targets. On a team with a struggling quarterback and facing a defense that is better against passing than rushing, we can expect Denver to lean on their run game here for as long as the game flow allows but be aware of the risk that MG3 and Boone carry in builds predicated on the Chargers winning handily. Given their modest prices, I think you can play them together but would not pair them both with Russ, unless building for an unexpected Broncos 5-1 curb stomping. We also have a bit of a wildcard here: both MG3 and Boone are questionable, and while both are expected to play, the Broncos are also likely to have Latavius Murray active in this one. There’s nothing to really point to this, but if MG3 and/or Boone are banged up, Murray could play more than most people would expect. It’s a thin play, but one with upside if you’re playing a bunch of tourney rosters.
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, the Broncos will trot out Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy as their dynamic duo, with a pile of randomness and chaos behind them. Sutton leads Jeudy in targets 46-29, in receiving yards 417-236, and in red zone targets 9-5. Jeudy is a great talent and deserves plenty of consideration, but Sutton is clearly the stronger overall play and the $1,400 price difference between them does not sufficiently reflect the difference in their roles. Sutton is clearly too cheap in this one (normally a wide receiver averaging 16 DK points per game would be somewhere in the $9.5k – $10.5k range). Behind these two, yikes. K.J. Hamler and Kendall Hinton have traded off the WR3 role all season but it looks like Hamler took it back after a couple of games with very low snaps, possibly due to recovering from the injury that caused him to miss Week 2 . . . but Hamler also only has four targets on the season. Tyrie Cleveland and/or Montrell Washington will play a handful of snaps and can be used in MME pools, with Cleveland the (slightly) better play; or, the less bad play, more realistically. At tight end, the Broncos use all of Eric Saubert, Eric Tomlinson, Andrew Beck, and Albert Okwuegbunam, making all of them tournament only plays. Saubert leads the position in snaps and targets, Tomlinson is a blocker who can largely be disregarded, Beck is also primarily a blocker (52 receiving yards in Week 1 but just 1 target and 0 catches since), while Albert O is a talented pass catcher who has found his way into the doghouse somehow (5/33/0 in Week 1 on 6 targets, but then just five targets since then while his snaps have vanished). All of these dudes are dart throws, and I would rank them as Saubert (the safest), Albert (risky but upside), Beck, and then Tomlinson.
By Dwprix >>
Overview
Russell Wilson
DEN WRs
DEN RBs
DEN TEs
Justin Herbert
LAC WRs
LAC RBs
Gerald Everett
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