Game Overview ::
By MJohnson86 >>
- The game everyone is talking about, both teams enter this week ranked top-10 in the league in offensive DVOA, yards per play, and points per game.
- These are the top two teams in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE).
- The Buffalo defense has been elite, allowing three touchdowns only one time this season in a fluky performance by the Dolphins where they only managed 212 total yards from scrimmage.
- The Bills defense has given up 61 total points this season, with 14 of those points coming on touchdown drives that started inside the Bills 10-yard line. The Chiefs defense has given up 60 total points in the last two weeks.
How Buffalo Will Try To Win ::
This is it for the Bills. After being eliminated from the playoffs the last two years by the Chiefs, this game carries as much significance for the Bills as any regular season game will all year. While this one game won’t make or break the season, and a potential playoff matchup is obviously much more critical, the fact of the matter is that the Bills have built their team largely with getting past the Chiefs in mind. Their defense is built to create pressure without having to bring heavy blitzes (they rank 31st in the NFL in blitz rate), and this allows them to drop a lot of bodies into coverage and play shell and zone coverages (they rank 5th in the league in zone coverage rate). This combination has treated them well, as their defense has been dominant this year but will now face arguably their toughest test of the year in the Chiefs.
On the offensive side of the ball, Josh Allen and company have been humming and are coming off a dominant performance against the Steelers. They now face a Chiefs defense that has given up 60 points to the Bucs and Raiders the last two weeks and the Bills scored 74 points against them in two meetings last year. The eruption of Gabe Davis is a nice reminder to opponents that they can’t sell out to stop Stefon Diggs – something the Chiefs probably didn’t need to be reminded of after Davis dropped eight receptions for 201 yards and four touchdowns against them in the playoffs last year. The Chiefs defense is kind of in the middle of the pack in both blitz rate and zone coverage rate, meaning that they can be flexible depending on their opponent. The best approach for the Chiefs this week will likely be to drop more players into coverage and force the Bills to work the ball underneath and dare them to run the ball against light boxes – ironically the same strategy that opponents have used against Mahomes in recent years. The Bills will likely accept this early in the game and take chunk plays on the ground to move the ball and hope to force the Chiefs to tighten things up. This will be an interesting chess match, as the Bills pass the ball at over a 70% rate on the season but the Chiefs will do everything they can to encourage them to run the ball. All that being said, the Bills certainly have the talent to take their shots early in the game as well and could take the approach that they want to set the tone and get a lead early in this game, allowing their #2 PFF graded pass rush to tee off on a predictable Kansas City offense if Buffalo can force them to play from behind.
How Kansas City Will Try To Win ::
- This is such an interesting game, and such an interesting week, as BUF/KC stands out to a ridiculous degree here, given what transpired in this game last season and what else is available on this week’s slate
- I could see things going one of two extreme ways here from a “DFS Field Tendencies” standpoint, with clear potential for the DFS field to flock to this game as the “obviously best spot,” but also with clear potential for the field to instead focus on all the ways this game could disappoint against the salaries at which you’d have to roster key pieces here — which could lead to this game being lower-owned than we might have expected heading into the week; if we land on this second scenario (which I think is actually more likely), we’ll head into Saturday evening // Sunday morning with Josh Allen projected as the highest-owned quarterback (and Patrick Mahomes likely in the top three), but with none of the individual skill position players from this game grabbing particularly high ownership from there
- This second scenario would also — honestly — more appropriately speak to the underlying aspects of this game that make it “not quite as much of a sure thing” as it looks like at first glance
- We have yet to see a Kansas City wide receiver top 90 receiving yards in a game, and it has probably been years since I have rostered a wide receiver against Sean McDermott and Leslie Frazier’s Bills defense; we also saw a couple weeks ago what Buffalo can do to an elite tight end when they prioritize taking that guy away (Mark Andrews: 2-15-0)
- Meanwhile, we know that Buffalo spreads the ball around and often creates situations where Josh Allen puts up a “strong, but not had-to-have-it” score (the type of score where you aren’t upset with what you’re getting at his price tag, but where it’s not as if it was necessary to pay up for him that week), while not producing a particularly elite price-considered score for any of his pass catchers; we can also feel comfortable expecting Kansas City to try to force Buffalo to work the short and intermediate areas of the field
- I’ll go ahead and surprise myself a bit here by starting with this:
- No KC wideout has topped 15 DraftKings points this week, and I’ll be surprised if that changes against the elite defense of the Bills, which means I don’t plan to take swings on any of these guys (even if one of them tops 15 DK points, a “had to have it” of 27+ at their price tags is not particularly likely, and the floor to chase that type of ceiling is low)
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the only running back on Kansas City who has topped 12.2 DraftKings points this season, and he has never once, in his 32-game career (playoffs included), posted a DraftKings score of even 4x his Week 6 salary, which will have me off him as well
- This makes Kelce the only skill position player I’ll be considering on Kansas City
- As I’ve noted multiple times this year: when Kelce hits, Mahomes almost inevitably hits as well (Kelce’s last seven “hits,” starting from his most recent and going back to Week 1 of last year: 33.5 // 24.2 // 29.1 // 44.1 // 22.9 // 26.9 // 25.6 || Mahomes’ scores in those games :: 30.5 // 24.4 // 37.9 // 34.6 // 39.2 // 28.0 // 36.3), which means that if I’m playing Kelce, I’m likely playing Mahomes
- On the Buffalo side, a game from Josh Allen of 30ish points would be nice, but I won’t be concerned if I don’t get that, which means that if I’m playing him, I’m hoping for a monster output; and if he has a monster output, he’s definitely bringing at least one of his pass catchers with him; with that in mind, “Josh Allen + a pass catcher” is in play for me — though interestingly, this setup would have me bringing back no one from the KC side (effectively betting on “Buffalo wins somewhat handily”), as Kelce is the only guy I really want to play on Kansas City, and if I’m rostering Kelce, I’m taking the “free square” that goes along with him in Mahomes (i.e., if my Kelce bet is right, my Josh Allen bet might also be right, but my Mahomes bet would definitely be right, so there would be no reason to take on the unnecessary risk); conversely, I could end up with Kelce/Mahomes/’Bills pass catcher’
- The final way I may look to play this is to take neither quarterback, but to keep guys like Dawson Knox and Isaiah McKenzie close to my builds as a way to gain exposure to the Bills’ offense while still taking a quarterback (Tom Brady, for example) who could put up close to 30 points for less in salary — i.e., saying, “Yeah, Josh Allen probably scores 30 yet again here, but as long as he doesn’t go for 35+, I can get close to that score and open up some nice upside elsewhere with this extra salary”
- Tying all that up:
- Mahomes + Kelce (likely with a Buffalo bring-back), or
- Allen + a pass catcher (Diggs, Davis, McKenzie would be the priorities), or
- Neither QB, but keep a couple guys (likely the less pricey guys) close to my builds
- A final note here :: while this is obviously a highly coherent/logical way to approach this game, it’s not “the only way”; it’s entirely possible this game goes nuts, and if you’re playing tourneys this week, you should be willing to figure out how you see this game, and should build your own coherent/logical thoughts around the ways you see it potentially playing out
mike johnson >>
Nothing to see here, just move along . . .
I kid, I kid!! This game is clearly the cream of the crop and requires a lot of attention, as how you decide to deal with this game affects how you build the rest of the roster. I will start by explaining my belief in how this game plays out. Based on the personnel, tendencies, history, etc. – here are my “rough” expectations for the game, if it was played 10 times in this exact situation:
- 5 out of 10 times the Bills win convincingly – a 10 to 17 point win (maybe like last year’s 38-20 regular season game, maybe a little lower scoring like 24-14)
- The reason I see this as a “most likely” outcome is the Bills just appear stronger in a lot of ways and I see a lot of holes in the Chiefs at this point. Also, the Bills defense just seems so solid and built to stop KC but now doesn’t even have to worry about Tyreek.
- 4 out of 10 times, it’s a close game that doesn’t go “nuclear”
- In this scenario, the Bills aren’t able to pull away and the Chiefs slow things down a bit, knowing that they can’t afford to fall way behind, and that “keeping things close into the 4th quarter” is key for them.
- Either team could win a game like this, but the idea here is it would end up something like 27-23 with gradual production throughout the game, rather than last year’s 42-36 game that featured repeated big plays for the last 20 minutes.
- 1 out of 10 times, we would get a nuclear game like last year’s playoff matchup
- This would require a huge let down from the Bills defense and the Chiefs receivers would finally be doing something and creating separation and yards after the catch.
- The most likely path to a monster game would probably be the Chiefs getting an early lead, which would most likely be created by early turnovers or offensive miscues by the Bills (something we’ve seen them do twice this year against the Dolphins and Ravens). The reasoning here is that the Bills defense is so good, it’s unlikely the Chiefs come out and are just marching down the field on them for scores to build a lead. They’ll need some field position help.
Some things to notice in my breakdown of things:
- Really hard for me to see the Bills offense not producing at a decent level in any scenario.
- The Chiefs offense could get dusted by the Bills defense but could also short circuit themselves a bit by trying to keep things close.
- Even in a “shootout” scenario, it seems like the Chiefs would score a decent amount of points but would have limited fantasy production from receptions and yards due to shorter fields.
- The nature of the Chiefs at this point is hard to predict, even in a “shootout” environment, the production could be extremely spread out.
This game has been talked about all week, and there are no shortage of takes, so I’ll try to get to the point in my player specific DFS thoughts:
- Josh Allen scored 39 points last week and his price didn’t move. He has scored 30+ points in four of five games. He’s a great play.
- Stacking partners for me are Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and Dawson Knox::
- Stefon Diggs is Stefon Diggs.
- Gabe Davis is fully healthy. In his last three fully healthy games, his stat lines are::
- 3 rec, 171 yards, 2 TDs on 6 targets
- 4 rec, 88 yards, 1 TD on 5 targets
- 8 rec, 201 yards, 4 TD on 12 targets (vs. KC in playoffs)
- I get the fact that last week’s game was highly variant and somewhat fluky on a low target count, but isn’t there also a chance the Bills say, “oh yea, that guy’s really good, we should throw it to him more.”
- Knox has played 70% or more snaps in every game he’s played. His snaps dipped from his usual “close to 90% role” from last season in Weeks 2 to 4 as he battled a foot injury. He sat out last week to rest the injury before this huge game against KC and practiced fully on Friday. I’d expect 80%+ snaps, and if the Chiefs focus on stopping Diggs/Davis on the perimeter (as they should), Knox could easily see six to eight targets and be featured near the goal line.
- Devin Singletary is in a great spot this week. His price has dipped some and he’s had a much bigger role in the Bills competitive games against good opponents this year. I would think on the road against the Chiefs would qualify as a good opponent and competitive situation. Similar to Knox, assuming the Chiefs try to contain the explosiveness of the Bills downfield passing game, Singletary should have plenty of room to operate on the ground and in the receiving game. Mind you, he caught 13 passes over two weeks against the Dolphins and Ravens.
- Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes. He’s priced a bit too close to Allen for my liking, but I’ll be playing some of him.
- My biggest concern with playing Mahomes is that if he “gets there” for his price, it’s almost certainly in a game environment where the Bills also score a lot, which means Allen is also probably getting there in a similar fashion, and the “risk” of Mahomes in a tougher spot is a lot to take on if I’m unlikely to see much advantage from being “right.”
- Because of that thought process, I’ll probably have Singletary on any Mahomes roster because that’s the one way I see Mahomes paying off his salary and separating from Allen.
- Travis Kelce is a monster, but his price tag is just so high. As JM alluded to, if I play Kelce, I’ll have him with Mahomes due to their high correlation and the fact that if Kelce gets there at his price, Mahomes is almost certainly getting there too.
- MVS and Juju Smith-Schuster are somewhat interesting at receiver, though JuJu is hard to trust and appears overpriced. MVS is probably my favorite option on KC and looked really good last week. He has the skill set to break things open, if anyone is going to.
- No interest in the KC backfield on the main slate, but could see myself using some Jerick McKinnon on the Afternoon Only slate.
- On rosters without offensive players from this game, I really like using the Bills defense.
- My favorite “stacks” around this game:
- Allen + Davis + Knox + MVS
- Mahomes + Kelce + Singletary (can add MVS or replace Kelce with MVS)
- Allen + Diggs + Knox + MVS
- Allen (or Mahomes) + Diggs + Davis + MVS + Kelce (using top 2 receiving options from both teams, game like last year’s playoff game)
- Allen + any 2 receiving options + KC Defense (Chiefs build a lead through turnovers and maybe a D/ST TD scenario, followed by Allen going nuclear for 3 quarters)
By MadDukes22 >>
- O/U of 54 is highest on the slate. BUF -2.5
- BUF Pace: 67 plays/60 (12th) // 65% pass rate (6th) // 25.9 sec/snap (10th)
- KC Pace: 68 plays/60 (10th) // 62 % pass rate // 26.9 sec/snap (18th)
- OFF DSR: BUF .779 (2nd) // KC .800 (1st)
- DEF DSR: BUF .684 (8th) // KC .746 (26th)
- TOP/60: BUF 29:50 (20th) // KC 31:27 (5th)
- First among QBs in DK pts (31.9) // Lamar second (28.8)
- 5th most rushing att // 4 most rushing yards // 2nd in YPC (6.4) among QBs
- Only QB avg over 300 yds/g (330) // 2 games with 400+ yds(Tua only other QB with a 400+)
- Leads NFL is EPA/play (.28) including when pressured (0.07)
- 3rd in 20+ yd completions (20) // 1st in 40+ yd completions (6)
- In Bills 2 competitive games (MIA & BAL) Singletary has out-snapped 80:20% and out-touched Moss & Cook 33:13
- Singletary is avg: 5 TGT/g // 4 rec/g // 12 touch/g // 63 yds/g // 10.7 DK pts/g // 13 OEP/g
- With Crowder, McKenzie, and Kumerow out Wk 5
- Snaps: Davis 46 // Diggs 42 // Shakir 38 // Hodgins 13 // Gentry 11
- TGTs: Diggs 11 // Davis 6 // Hodgins 6 // Shakir 5 // Gentry 1
- Davis leads NFL in YPR (28.1) of players with more than 3 receptions
- Diggs NFL ranks: TGTs (6th) // Rec (3rd) // Yds (4th) // TDs (1st) // 20+ (5th) // 40+ (1st)
- Second fewest points allowed in NFL and have yet to give up more than 21 points
- 6th in sacks (16) and 1st in INTs (8)
- 4th fewest passing yards and 2 fewest passing TDs
- Lowest QB rating against (65.2)
- Leading NFL in TDs (15) with only 2 INTs
- 3rd in EPA/play (.23)
- 4th in 20+ yd comp (19)
- Most pass att in20 (47) // in10 (26) // in5 (16)
- Snaps: CEH (24/23/24/43/31) // Jerick (26/26/30/17/35) // Pacheco (16/5/5/17/2)
- Touches: CEH (10/12/12/20/12) // Jerick (7/6/7/3/10) // Pacheco (12/2/3/11/1)
- RZ Opps: CEH (2/0/3/3/4) // Jerick (0/3/3/2/2) // Pacheco (3/0/1/3/0)
- OEP/g: CEH (15) // Jerick (9) // Pacheco (5)
- Kelce has 7-10 TGTs in every game (8.4)
- JuJu has 8 TGTs in every game but one (3)
- Kelce leads all TEs in TPRR (32.8%) and YPRR (2.71)
- Kelce is 16th in Yds (347) and 1st in TDs (7) among all TEs & WRs
- Sky Moore play season high 33% of the snaps in Wk 5
- Moore has 7 TGTs in last 2 games // Mecole 6 TGTs in last 2 games
- 5th highest QB rating against (103.3) and most passing TDs allowed (12)
- 8th in sacks (13) but only 1 INT
- 3rd worst comp % against (69.3)