Kickoff Sunday, Oct 16th 1:00pm Eastern

49ers (
24.5) at

Falcons (
21)

Over/Under 45.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
49ers Run D
18th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
9th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
3rd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
24th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Falcons Run D
16th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
3rd DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
29th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow>>
  • Both teams are in the bottom five in pass attempts per game.
  • Both teams average under 60 offensive plays per game.
  • There is very little to get excited about from a fantasy perspective here, considering the low expected volume and low game total.
  • San Francisco pieces always carry high theoretical upside due to unreal per-touch efficiency but the volume keeps the floors on the ground (the ceiling is the roof).
  • Two of the bottom three teams in Pass Rate Over Expectation through five weeks.
  • Six impact defensive players missed practice for the 49ers on Wednesday, including Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw, Emmanuel Mosely, and Jimmie Ward. OT Trent Williams also missed practice.
  • Kyle Pitts returned to a limited practice on Wednesday after missing last week’s game.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

Everything starts with the defense in San Francisco, which makes sense when your unit has allowed the fewest yards per drive, fewest points per drive, and lowest drive success rate, all by significant margins. Consider this, their 1.45 points per drive value on offense ranks 30th in the league, and they still rank sixth in net points per drive! They have paired that stalwart defense with a slow pace of play on offense to mask the inefficiencies of their quarterback, leading to a 22nd-ranked 59.8 offensive plays per game. Injuries have also played a part in their 2022 path after the team lost its starting running back and starting quarterback within the first 17 offensive plays in Week 1 and Week 2, respectively. Speaking of the inefficiencies of their quarterback, here are some of Jimmy Garoppolo’s ranks in various efficiency metrics so far this year: 33rd in clean pocket completion percentage, 29th in true completion percentage, 24th in accuracy rating, 21st in QBR, 32nd in completion percentage versus zone coverages, and 28th in expected fantasy points per game. Yikes! Trey Lance might not have been it for the 49ers this season, but Jimmy Garoppolo definitely wasn’t it. Yet, the 49ers find themselves atop the NFC West with a record of 3-2 after losing to the Bears in the Week 1 waterworks game with Trey Lance at quarterback and losing to the Broncos on the road at Mile High by a score of 11-10 in Week 3.

The running back situation has devolved into an alpha role that is more beta in snap rate, with Jeff Wilson Jr. leading the way in weekly snap rate and workload after significant injuries to both Elijah Mitchell and Tyrion Davis-Price. That said, Wilson has played a whopping five more offensive snaps than fullback Kyle Juszczyk over the previous four games, while Juszczyk has a combined 10 running back opportunities over five games. That should help to explain the emphasis on heavy offensive alignments from this team, a team that plays from 11-personnel at the lowest rate in the league. All of that to say, even though Jeff Wilson is the unquestioned lead back in San Francisco, we can’t really expect substantially more than the 18 running back opportunities he has averaged over his four starts this year. The matchup on the ground yields a well above-average 4.64 net-adjusted line yards metric against an opponent largely considered a run-funnel defense. Tevin Coleman has rejoined the fray in San Francisco, hilariously sniping two touchdowns on 19 offensive snaps in Week 5, which led to his ultimate signing back to the active roster on Wednesday of this week. That could serve to further lessen the theoretical upside of Wilson after the alpha back had this backfield virtually to himself over the previous two weeks (rookie Jordan Mason and Tevin Coleman combined for only six offensive snaps through Weeks 3 and 4). Finally, all backs in the San Francisco backfield should largely be thought of as yardage-and-touchdown backs considering the team has targeted the position only 19 times through five weeks, which is tied with the Bears for the third fewest in the league.

The 49ers attempt only 27.6 passes per game through five weeks, which ranks 28th in the league and also makes a good deal of sense considering the composition of their team. With that consideration understood, there are very few teams that can push San Francisco into increased pass volume, and Atlanta likely isn’t one of them. That should leave Jimmy Garoppolo in his standard range of 28-30 pass attempts, similar to his range in all three starts thus far. What’s gross is the fact that he has yet to complete more than 18 passes in a game this season. The counter to the “Jimmy G is inefficient” argument is the insane efficiency of the 49ers pass-catchers, highlighted by the unreal, and likely unsustainable, 14.47 yards per completion value over the previous two weeks. All of George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk are continually towards the top of the league in yards after the catch per reception and other efficiency metrics, which highlights the dynamism and upside-generating scheme. Basically, each of these pass-catchers has a low floor due to the low overall pass volume of the offense, but they all carry equally as high ceilings due to the unreal per-touch efficiency. Deebo will also likely mix in a handful of rush attempts. Situational wide receivers Jauan Jennings and Ray-Ray McCloud III and pass-blocking tight ends Charlie Woerner and Ross Dwelley can be left out of fantasy consideration altogether.

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::

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Overview:

  • 5th highest total on main slate (44.5)
  • SF D is tied for 1st in ppg allowed (12.2) 
  • They’re one of two teams that haven’t had 20 or more pts scored against them (DAL)
  • They allow the least total yds/g (249.2)
  • ATL D allows the 10th most DK pts or worse to every position group
  • SF D allows the 10th fewest DK pts or better to every position group
  • SF is the only team in the NFC West with a winning record
  • They’re tied for the 2nd best point differential in the league (+47) (tied with PHI, BUF is 1st at +97)

Jimmy Garoppolo

  •  Although he only played 3 qts WK2, Jimmy has increased his pass yds every week (154, 211, 239, 253)
  • 9 straight games started w/o 20 DK pts, 6 w/o 20+ completions, & 6 w/o 300+ pass yds
  • DK price in starts this season: ($5.5k, $5.6k, $5.4k, $5.5k this week)
  • Jimmy has increased his DK pts in every start: (10.4, 13.9, 18.02)
  • ATL allows the 9th most DK pts/g to QBs (20.8)

SF WRs

  • Deebo’s rush attempts have been on a decline (8, 4, 5, 2, 2)
  • His targets steady (9, 7, 8, 6, 8)
  • Season high target count last week with 9 but only caught 2
  • He’s broke 3x salary just once (13.6, 14.7, 12.9, 26.7, 11.2)
  • Deebo has 3 receptions & 2 rushes over 20 yds
  • Tgt Shares: (Deebo 28%) // (Aiyuk 20%) // (Jennings 13%)
  • ATL allows the 6th most DK pts to WRs (41.5)

SF RBs

  • Snaps last week: (Wilson 38) // (Coleman 19)
  • Coleman’s 19 snaps: 5 RZ touches (2 receptions & 3 rushes) // 11 touches // 21.7 DK pts
  • Coleman had 1 rush & 1 receiving TD // Wilson had 1 rush TD
  • Wilson’s DK pts have went up every week (5.0, 12.3, 12.6, 13.4, 23.2)
  • Last week was his first game scoring 3x salary (4.2x) & first over 20 DK pts (23.2)
  • His price went up $700 // This week: (3x salary is 18.6 DK pts) // ( 4x is 24.8)
  • ATL allows the 10th most DK pts/g to RBs (25.0)

SF TEs

  • Kittle has 15 tgts in 3 games played (6, 4, 5)
  • DK price is down $800 on DK since WK1 (DNP) & the cheapest its been all season ($5.1k)
  • FD price is down $800 since last week ($6.5k, season high) & the cheapest its been all season 
  • Hasn’t broke 63 receiving yds in 9 straight games
  • Last season he had 3 games over 24 DK pts (37.1, 42.6, 24.1)
  • ATL allows the 4th most DK pts/g to TEs (17.6)

Marcus Mariota

  • SF D leads the league in sacks (21, 4.2/g)
  • They have 13 over their last 2 games
  • Nick Bosa is questionable this week, he’s T-1st in sacks (6.0)
  • ATL ranks T-19th in sacks allowed (2.4)
  • They allowed 5 last week to TB
  • SF ranks 3rd in pass yds/g allowed (177.8)
  • Only Stafford & Mayfield have topped 200 pass yards against SF
  • Mariotta has topped 200 pass yds in 2 of 5 games
  • 3x+ DK salary in 3 of 5 games (20.8, 17.6, 18.0)
  • ATL ranks 31st in pass attempts/g (24.6), 30th in pass yds/g (166.8), & 24th in pass TDs/g (.8)
  • SF D allows the fewest DK pts/g to QBs (9.9) facing Mayfield (7.6), Stafford (8.8), Wilson (9.1), Smith (7.8), & Fields (14.7)

ATL WRs

  • London (Q) tgts: (7, 12, 6, 7, 7) // tgt share: (33%)
  • DK pt log: (7.5, 3.7, 14.4, 24.6, 12.4)
  • Zaccheaus has 5 catches over 20 yds, avgs a team leading 17.8 yds/catch, has caught 12 of 14 tgts, & has 2 TDs (same as London)
  • He’s yet to see over 4 tgts in a game: (4, 2, 2, 2, 4)
  • SF D allows the 10th least DK pts/g to WRs (30.8)

ATL RBs

  • Snaps last week with Patterson on IR: (Allgeier 39) // (Williams 17) // (Huntley 16)
  • Allgeier’s rush attempts didn’t really go up much (10, 6, 10, 13 last week)
  • Huntley’s went down from 10 to 8 & he scored
  • Avery saw 3 attempts & he scored
  • ATL ranks 4th in rush attempts/g (32.4), 3rd in rush yds/g (164.6), 2nd in rush play percent (54.6%), & 3rd in rush TDs/g (1.4)
  • SF D allows the 6th fewest DK pts/g to RBs (18.9)

Kyle Pitts

  • Tgts: (7, 3, 8, 4) // Catch rate: (45%)
  • DK pts: (DNP, 3.5, 13.7, 3.9, 3.9)
  • His price has steadily decreased from $5.7k WK1 (season high) to $4.2k this week (season low)
  • SF allows the 2nd least DK pts/g to TEs (5.8)