49ers (

24.5) at
Falcons (

21)

Game Overview ::

By hilow>>

• Both teams are in the bottom five in pass attempts per game.
• Both teams average under 60 offensive plays per game.
• There is very little to get excited about from a fantasy perspective here, considering the low expected volume and low game total.
• San Francisco pieces always carry high theoretical upside due to unreal per-touch efficiency but the volume keeps the floors on the ground (the ceiling is the roof).
• Two of the bottom three teams in Pass Rate Over Expectation through five weeks.
• Six impact defensive players missed practice for the 49ers on Wednesday, including Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Javon Kinlaw, Emmanuel Mosely, and Jimmie Ward. OT Trent Williams also missed practice.
• Kyle Pitts returned to a limited practice on Wednesday after missing last week’s game.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

Everything starts with the defense in San Francisco, which makes sense when your unit has allowed the fewest yards per drive, fewest points per drive, and lowest drive success rate, all by significant margins. Consider this, their 1.45 points per drive value on offense ranks 30^th in the league, and they still rank sixth in net points per drive! They have paired that stalwart defense with a slow pace of play on offense to mask the inefficiencies of their quarterback, leading to a 22^nd-ranked 59.8 offensive plays per game. Injuries have also played a part in their 2022 path after the team lost its starting running back and starting quarterback within the first 17 offensive plays in Week 1 and Week 2, respectively. Speaking of the inefficiencies of their quarterback, here are some of Jimmy Garoppolo’s ranks in various efficiency metrics so far this year: 33^rd in clean pocket completion percentage, 29^th in true completion percentage, 24^th in accuracy rating, 21^st in QBR, 32^nd in completion percentage versus zone coverages, and 28^th in expected fantasy points per game. Yikes! Trey Lance might not have been it for the 49ers this season, but Jimmy Garoppolo definitely wasn’t it. Yet, the 49ers find themselves atop the NFC West with a record of 3-2 after losing to the Bears in the Week 1 waterworks game with Trey Lance at quarterback and losing to the Broncos on the road at Mile High by a score of 11-10 in Week 3.

The running back situation has devolved into an alpha role that is more beta in snap rate, with Jeff Wilson Jr. leading the way in weekly snap rate and workload after significant injuries to both Elijah Mitchell and Tyrion Davis-Price. That said, Wilson has played a whopping five more offensive snaps than fullback Kyle Juszczyk over the previous four games, while Juszczyk has a combined 10 running back opportunities over five games. That should help to explain the emphasis on heavy offensive alignments from this team, a team that plays from 11-personnel at the lowest rate in the league. All of that to say, even though Jeff Wilson is the unquestioned lead back in San Francisco, we can’t really expect substantially more than the 18 running back opportunities he has averaged over his four starts this year. The matchup on the ground yields a well above-average 4.64 net-adjusted line yards metric against an opponent largely considered a run-funnel defense. Tevin Coleman has rejoined the fray in San Francisco, hilariously sniping two touchdowns on 19 offensive snaps in Week 5, which led to his ultimate signing back to the active roster on Wednesday of this week. That could serve to further lessen the theoretical upside of Wilson after the alpha back had this backfield virtually to himself over the previous two weeks (rookie Jordan Mason and Tevin Coleman combined for only six offensive snaps through Weeks 3 and 4). Finally, all backs in the San Francisco backfield should largely be thought of as yardage-and-touchdown backs considering the team has targeted the position only 19 times through five weeks, which is tied with the Bears for the third fewest in the league.

The 49ers attempt only 27.6 passes per game through five weeks, which ranks 28^th in the league and also makes a good deal of sense considering the composition of their team. With that consideration understood, there are very few teams that can push San Francisco into increased pass volume, and Atlanta likely isn’t one of them. That should leave Jimmy Garoppolo in his standard range of 28-30 pass attempts, similar to his range in all three starts thus far. What’s gross is the fact that he has yet to complete more than 18 passes in a game this season. The counter to the “Jimmy G is inefficient” argument is the insane efficiency of the 49ers pass-catchers, highlighted by the unreal, and likely unsustainable, 14.47 yards per completion value over the previous two weeks. All of George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk are continually towards the top of the league in yards after the catch per reception and other efficiency metrics, which highlights the dynamism and upside-generating scheme. Basically, each of these pass-catchers has a low floor due to the low overall pass volume of the offense, but they all carry equally as high ceilings due to the unreal per-touch efficiency. Deebo will also likely mix in a handful of rush attempts. Situational wide receivers Jauan Jennings and Ray-Ray McCloud III and pass-blocking tight ends Charlie Woerner and Ross Dwelley can be left out of fantasy consideration altogether.

How Atlanta Will Try To Win ::