Kickoff Sunday, Oct 16th 1:00pm Eastern

Bengals (
22.75) at

Saints (
19.75)

Over/Under 42.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The New Orleans injury report currently looks like a scene from Kill Bill – there’s blood everywhere. All of Michael Thomas (foot), Jarvis Landry (ankle), Chris Olave (concussion), Marshon Lattimore (abdomen), and return man/depth wide receiver Deonte Harty did not practice on Wednesday, while Jameis Winston managed a limited session as he works his way back from multiple injuries. 
  • The Bengals have held opponents to the eighth fewest points per game on the backs of the second-best points allowed per drive, the second-best drive success rate allowed, and the 10th fewest yards per drive allowed. #ThisIsALouAnarumoTweet
  • These two teams combine to average 32.56 seconds per play. 
  • Bengals WR Tee Higgins missed practice to start the week after failing to make it through Week 5’s game with an ankle injury.

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

The Bengals average 69.8 offensive plays per game. That stat doesn’t mean much by itself because there are many different ways to get to a high number of plays per game. We primarily see it done in one of two ways; either a team’s defense is so poor that their offense gets the ball back faster (Detroit is a good example) or a team’s defense forces shorter drives and gives the ball back to their offense faster. Cincinnati is firmly entrenched in the latter example. So far this season, the Bengals hold the league’s second-best drive success rate allowed, second-best points allowed per drive, and the 10th fewest yards allowed per drive. That means that even though they rank in the middle of the league in offensive drive success rate (15th), their net drive success rate value ranks second overall (behind only Buffalo and ahead of Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Green Bay). Furthermore, their three losses have come through a combined eight total points, meaning this team is three bounces of the football away from being 5-0, and it’s primarily due to their defense.

Joe Mixon has played 66% or more of the offensive snaps in every week so far this year, averaging a 73.6% snap rate on the season. He ranks as the number one running back in expected fantasy points per game, with averages of 19.2 rush attempts and 5.4 targets per week. That said, his 3.7 yards per touch value ranks 54th and his true yards per carry value ranks 65th. Cincinnati’s offensive line is blocking to a 22nd-ranked 4.23 adjusted line yards value with only 3.35 running back yards per carry, indicating a situation that should regress to the mean at some point. Mixon’s 20 red zone opportunities rank second amongst running backs to only Kareem Hunt, and his zero touchdowns on seven carries inside the five rates as the worst red zone efficiency in the league. Something has got to give at some point for Mixon, it just might not be this week against a Saints defense allowing just 20.2 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields on the backs of the league’s top-ranked power run success rate. The pure rushing matchup yields an average 4.34 net-adjusted line yards metric. Expect Samaje Perine to continue in a strict change of pace role assuming he is healthy enough to play after being limited to start the week with an abdomen injury.

Injuries could force the Bengals pass game into one-dimensionality with Tee Higgins battling an ankle injury and starting tight end Hayden Hurst limited by a groin injury. As things currently stand, I would tentatively expect Higgins to miss this week while Hurst plays. Should that be the case, we’re likely to see Mike Thomas enter the starting lineup opposite Ja’Marr Chase. We also could see a heavier emphasis on 11-personnel similar to what we saw last week after Higgins left the game. Starting slot wide receiver Tyler Boyd played all but two offensive snaps, his first time over an 81% snap rate all year. The other variable here is the status of Saints corner Marshon Lattimore, who missed practice to start the week with an abdomen injury. That’s important for a couple of reasons, primarily due to the defensive tendencies shown by the Saints this year. Their 4-2-5 base nickel defense has adjusted to the opponent heavily this year, mixing and matching zone and man coverages to take away their opponents’ best chances of moving the football. Considering the injuries on each side and the relative weakness of the Bengals rush offense, it stands to reason that we see the Saints settle into heavier rates of Cover-2 and Cover-3 defensive alignments, which should benefit the short-area passing game but limit the splash play potential of the Bengals. That sets up well for Tyler Boyd, Hayden Hurst, and Joe Mixon to see a slight uptick in aerial usage while simultaneously muting the per-touch upside of all parties.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

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By LexMiraglia10 >>

Andy Dalton:

  • Dalton starts since 2021: 206:0:1 // 201:2 // 317:1:1 // 229:2:4 // 173:1:1 // 325:1:2 // 236:1 // 187:1:1
  • Dalton’s two 300-yd games came against defenses ranked 27th (DET) & 13th (MIN) in def pass DVOA in 2021
  • CIN currently ranks 7th in def pass DVOA
  • Dalton has just 3 games of 20+ DK pts since 2020, and only one was above 21 (30.6)
  • QBs vs CIN: Trubisky (194:1) // Rush (235:1) // Flacco (285:0:2) // MIA (303:1:2) // Lamar (174:1:1)

NOR WRs:

  • NOR tg: Olave (3 // 13 // 13 // 7 // 6) // Landry (9 // 5 // 5 // 2 // -) // Callaway (0 // 0 // 1 // 6 // 3) // Smith (0 // 0 // 5 // 2 // 4)
  • Olave’s start: 41 // 80 // 147 // 67:1 // 54:1
  • Landry had 117 in W1, but since has just 54 yds total
  • All of Thomas, Landry, Olave are questionable
  • WRs over 50 yds vs CIN: Diontae (55) // Brown (91:1), Lamb (75) // Wilson (60) // Hill (160), Sherfield (55) // Duvernay (54)

Alvin Kamara:

  • In 2021, AK’s total touches without Ingram: 24 // 14 // 28 // 26 // 24 // 31 // 32 // 19 // 32
  • In 2021, AK’s total touches with Ingram: 23 // 20 // 17 // 17
  • 2022 RB touches: AK (13 / – / 22 / – / 29) // Ingram (5 / 12 / 5 / 13 / 9)
  • Leading NOR RB by game: AK (46) // Ingram (63) // AK (73) // Murray (65:1) // AK (194)
  • Top RB yds vs CIN: Najee (26:1) // Pollard (98:1) // Hall (92) // Mostert (81) // Dobbins (44)
  • AK as Home Dog in career (DK pts): 33.6 // 11.9 // 18.4 // 16.6 // 7.9

Joe Burrow:

  • Burrow’s last game in the Superdome was a blowout national championship win for LSU
  • QBs vs NOR: Mariota (215, 72:1) // Brady (190:1) // Baker (170:1) // Cousins (273:1:1) // Geno (268:3)
  • NOR has the 4th fewest pressures through 5 weeks
  • NOR ranks 13th in def pass DVOA
  • Joe Burrow as a road favorite (DK pts): 13.3 // 23.8 // 21.3 // 10 // 16.6 // 23
  • Burrow in Chase’s games of 25+ DK pts: 281:2:2 // 416:3:1 // 348:2 // 446:4 // 244:2 // 338:2:4

Ja’Marr Chase:

  • NOR CB Marshon Lattimore has missed practice all week
  • 2022 WRs vs NOR: London (74), Zaccheaus (49) // Evans (61), Perriman (45:1) // Moore (2), Shenault (90:1) // Jefferson (147), Thielen (72) // Lockett (104:2), Metcalf (88:1)
  • After Chase’s big game in W1 following an early Higgins exit, Chase has yet to reach 15 DK pts again since
  • Higgins has missed practice all week after essentially not playing in W5
  • Chase as a road favorite: 2:54:1 // 4:97 // 3:32:1 // 3:32:1 // 5:54 // 6:29:1
  • Top opposing player in Ja’Marr Chase’s games of 25+ DK pts: Adams (11:206:1) // M Brown (5:80:1) // Kittle (13:151:1) // D Williams (88:2, 19) // Zay (5:61:1) // Freiermuth (5:75)

Joe Mixon:

  • NOR’s elite rushing defense over the years is finally starting to show some cracks
  • Only 7 RBs finished with 50+ rush yds vs 2021 NOR
  • In 2022, Patterson (120:1), Fournette (65), CMC (108), Cook (76), Walker (88:1), Penny (54) have all rushed for 50+ yds, and Patterson & CMC joined Sanders as the only RBs to break 100 rush yds vs NOR since mid-2017
  • RBs to score 20+ DK pts vs NOR since 2018: Saquon (22, 29.6) // Latavius (20.5) // Zeke (25.6) // CMC (34.3, 22.8, 26, 24.7) // Mostert (24.9) // Dalvin (28.0) // Sanders (32.6) // Fournette (21.7) // Gibson (21.2) // Patterson (22.6, 25.6)
  • That’s 15 RB scores of 20+ DK pts allowed in the last 75 games, and just 7 of 25+
  • 14/15 scored a TD /// 6/15 scored 2 TDs /// 10/15 had 5+ rec /// 13/15 had 6+ DK rec pts
  • Mixon total touches:yds: 36:145 // 23:83 // 19:38 // 28:74:1 // 17:88