Cowboys (

18.25) at
Eagles (

24.75)

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday night football should be fun as Dallas and their overachieving defense/quarterback take on the NFL’s last undefeated team, the Eagles. Dallas lost their starting quarterback midway through Week 1 but is still 4-1 thanks to Cooper Rush doing just enough at quarterback, and their defense absolutely smashing. They have yet to allow an opponent to reach even 20 points against them. This game has a total of 42 points with Philly favored by 6.5, which means a very healthy implied total of 27.5 for the Eagles (against an offense that has, again, given up at most 19 points in a game) and a terrible total of just 14.5 points for the Cowboys (yikes). 

Philadelphia

On the Philly side, Miles Sanders has really emerged this season, playing a season-high 74% of the snaps last week. Sanders is averaging a healthy 17.4 carries per game (though a 27-carry game against Jacksonville is skewing that somewhat), but he should be a shoo-in for 15-ish carries with upside for more here, plus a couple of targets. The matchup tilts to the ground, with Dallas 4th in DVOA against opposing passing attacks but just 18th against the run. We should expect to see a healthy dose of Sanders and Hurts rushing plays in this one. While Hurts is (obviously) the best overall play in this game, Sanders brings a solid floor and ceiling combination for $8,400. Behind Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell will mix in for an RB2 role that has resulted in an average of about 5 opportunities per game – i.e. not useful unless Sanders gets hurt or Gainwell finds his way into the end zone. At $6,200, Gainwell is hard to play unless you are just trying to be intentionally contrarian by paying up for a guy that should come with sub-10% ownership. Boston Scott missed the last two games but should be back for this one and can also be expected to handle a couple of opportunities. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Eagles will trot out Devonta Smith, A.J. Brown, and Quez Watkins as their primary wide receivers with Zach Pascal playing a rotational role, and then Dallas Goedert, Jack Stoll, and Grant Calcaterra at tight end. I love A.J. Brown as a player and he’s averaging a healthy 9 targets per game, but at $10.6k he needs to blow up to be optimal. An elite player is never a bad play, but when price is considered, I’m likely to focus more of my exposure on the significantly cheaper Smith and Goedert at $7.4k and $6.8k, respectively. Smith is playing more snaps and running more routes than AJB, and though he’s drawn fewer targets, he’s still averaging 7.6 per game. So, effectively, I can pay about 2/3 the price for 85% of the target volume – seems like a good deal to me. I’m still waiting for the Dallas Goedert blowup game (we ALMOST had it last week when he got to 8/95/0, but he just missed the 100-yard bonus and didn’t get in the end zone), and while he isn’t in the elite tier of tight end, he’s priced around where we normally see guys like Dalton Schultz, T.J. Hockenson, etc., and I think he’s clearly a step above that tier. Love both Smith and Goedert. Watkins is (usually) a field stretcher who can hit for a long touchdown from anywhere but has a zero-point floor with no catches in three of five games so far. At his price, his floor and median outcomes are worse than the kickers he’s priced next to, but his ceiling is higher. Pascal is good for a target or two per game, while Stoll and Calcaterra have just two and one targets each on the season, respectively, and are thus very thin MME punt options.