Kickoff Sunday, Nov 28th 1:00pm Eastern

Titans (
17.75) at

Patriots (
25.25)

Over/Under 43.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Titans Run D
14th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
9th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
11th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
7th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
17th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
3rd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
21st DVOA/10th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • The Titans are adjusting to life without Derrick Henry.
  • Both backfields are timeshares.
  • The Patriots offense is game plan dependent.
  • The best DFS play in this game might be a defense.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The Titans come into this game sporting an 8-3 record, tops in the AFC. Unfortunately, they lost their best player (Derrick Henry) and are struggling to figure out their offensive identity without being able to hand Henry the ball 30 times a game. The Titans play slow (23rd in situational neutral pace) and grind to a halt (29th in pace) when winning. They speed things up (11th in pace) if they are behind, which makes the speed of Titans games very game flow dependent. They would prefer to win by playing slow and falling on the ball but will pick up their tempo to catch up if necessary. Mike Vrabel has been a “we do our thing” coach, rather than the type of coach who adapts his offense to fit an opponent. Vrabel has been able to get away with his approach because “his thing” has been handing the ball to the man child called Derrick Henry. The Titans are finding that playing 90s football is a lot harder without Henry and currently rock one of the lowest team totals (19) you’ll ever see from a contender, in clear first place in their conference. The Patriots defense has been strong against both the run and the pass (2nd in overall DVOA) and there is nothing to suggest the Titans will deviate from their normal approach. Expect a heavy dose of trying to establish the run before eventually cutting bait and chasing points in the second half. 

How new england Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots coaching staff deserves a lot of credit for turning their season around. After starting the year 1-3 and looking like they were about to post a second straight disappointing year without Tom Brady, the Pats roared back to life going 6-1 in their last seven games, as their collection of off-season talent started to come together around their rookie QB. The Pats lone loss in their last seven games came in OT against the Cowboys. This Patriots team looks legitimately good as they are rounding into form at the right time. This game has playoff implications as the Patriots are only half a game back from the Titans for the best record in the AFC.

Bill Belichick has long been one of the more adaptable coaches in the NFL and is willing to relentlessly go after the relative weakness of a defense.  The Titans are middling against the pass (13th in DVOA) and against the run (18th in DVOA) which doesn’t present a clear path of least resistance. Belichick is smart enough to know that this game profiles as one that he can win mostly on defense, while allowing his offense to run the ball, and do just enough through the air. Expect the Patriots to come in pounding the rock and allowing their defense to control the game as they pull away into the 4th quarter.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a lowish 44.5-point total, but that is largely because the Titans offense isn’t expected to do much without King Henry against a strong Patriots defense. The Titans 19-point team total drags down the game environment since the Pats will likely be content to win this game mostly on the defensive side of the ball. The most likely game flow has the Titans struggling to generate offense, as the Patriots grind them down with their running game, mixing in just enough passing to build a lead.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Overview:

  • NE has won 5 straight to vault into AFC East’s 1st place at 7-4
  • TEN just lost to HOU, but was coming off stretch of beating BUF, KC, IND, LAR, NOR

Ryan Tannehill:

  • Since 2020, the game scores of his 10 games of 20+ DK pts read: 46-25, 42-36, 35-41, 42-16, 41-38, 33-30, 30-24, 25-16, 27-3, 34-31
  • That’s 8/10 games in which TEN scored 30+ pts, and 6/10 games in which the combined total finished over 60
  • TEN offensive pts with Henry: 13 // 33 // 25 // 24 // 30 // 34 // 27 // 34
  • TEN offensive pts without Henry: 21 // 23 // 13
  • NE pts allowed: 17 // 6 // 28 // 19 // 22 // 35 // 13 // 24 // 6 // 7 // 0
  • Tannehill has passed for 300 yds in just 5 of his 28 starts since 2020
  • Last week was Tanny’s first 300-yd game since W2, and TEN trailed the whole way while Tanny threw 4 INT
  • NE has allowed just two 300-yd passers
  • Mills & Dak vs NE: 312:3 & 445:3:1
  • Other 9 QBs vs NE: averages of 196 yds, 0.78 TDs, 1.7 INT
  • Tanny’s last three without Henry: 143:1:1, rush TD // 213:1, rush TD // 323:1:4

TEN WRs:

  • Seven WRs have 70+ yds vs NE: Parker (81) // Berrios (73) // Evans (75) // Moore (109:1), Conley (84:1) // Lamb (149:2) // Keenan (77:1)
  • NE has allowed the lowest success rate to WRs
  • TEN WRs with 70+ yds: Brown (91, 133:1, 155:1) // Julio (128) // Westbrook (107) // Johnson (100)
  • Julio & Johnson are on IR, while Brown is questionable
  • Dez Fitzpatrick saw 6 tg stepping in for Johnson vs HOU, while Westbrook-Ikinhe had his best game of the year (7:107)
  • Just 2 WRs have finished with 20+ DK pts vs NE: Chris Moore (5:109:1) // Lamb (9:149:2)

TEN RBs:

  • With Peterson not currently on the roster, Foreman & Hilliard are expected to lead the backfield
  • Hilliard caught 8 passes in his first TEN game
  • 8 RBs have finished with 40+ rec yds vs NE
  • NE has allowed the 2nd most RB rec yds
  • NE has allowed a league-low 3 RB TDs

Mac Jones:

  • TEN ranks 13th in def pass DVOA and has 9 INT
  • Jones had 6 INT in a 4-g stretch, but has just 2 over the last five games
  • 6 QBs have passed for 290+ yds vs TEN
  • Jones Pass att in Ws: 30 // 30 // 36 // 35 // 18 // 23 // 26
  • Jones Pass att in Ls: 39 // 51 // 40 // 21
  • Jones has just one game of 20+ DK pts, his only 300 yd game (vs NYJ)

NE WRs:

  • Only ATL allowed more WR DK pts than TEN in 2020
  • TEN has allowed the most WR DK pts in 2021
  • Nine WRs vs TEN in 2021 have scored 20+ DK pts: Hopkins (26.3), Kirk (24) // Lockett (34.8), Swain (21) // Davis (24.1) // Diggs (23.9), Beasley (21.8) // Pittman (30.6) // Kupp (20.5)
  • TEN has allowed 14 WR TDs
  • Targets: Meyers (82) // Agholor (50) // Bourne (47)
  • 70+ yd games: Meyers (2) // Agholor (1) // Bourne (3)
  • 20+ DK pt games: Meyers (0) // Agholor (0) // Bourne (2)
  • High DK score: Meyers (18.4) // Agholor (18.2) // Bourne (24.1)

Hunter Henry:

  • Henry has scored 7 TDs in the last 8 games
  • Henry’s yds in those games: 32 // 75 // 25 // 23 // 33 // 19 // 37 // 25
  • In those 8 games, just three have been scores over 10.5 DK pts (13.2, 19.5, 19.7)
  • Henry has scored under 10 DK pts six times
  • Best TEs vs TEN: Arnold (6:65) // Knox (3:25) // Kelce (7:65) // Higbee (5:51) // Trautman (5:32)
  • TEN has allowed the 2nd lowest success rate & lowest yds/att to TEs
  • TEN has allowed just three TE TDs (Hollister, Sweeney, Doyle)

NE RBs:

  • Harris with 15+ rush att in career: 17:100 // 16:102:1 // 22:121 // 16:80 // 23:100 // 16:62:1 // 18:101:1 // 14:106:2 // 23:80:1 // 15:30:1
  • Harris only got 10 att last week after missing W10, while Stevenson got 12
  • Stevenson’s last three: 10:62, 2:44 // 20:100:2, 4:14 // 12:69, 1:6
  • Bolden receiving yds without James White: 23 // 51 // 6 // 3 // 79:1 // 0 // 27 // 38 // 15
  • NE RB TDs by week: 0 // 2 // 0 // 0 // 1 // 2 // 5 // 1 // 1 // 2 // 0
  • RB total yds vs TEN: Edmonds (106), Conner (53) // Carson (31) // Taylor (72), Hines (79) // Carter (34), Coleman (31) // Robinson (147) // Singletary (43), Moss (39) // Williams (50) // Taylor (122) // Hendy (58) // Ingram (108) // Burkhead (40)
  • TEN has allowed the 6th lowest success rate on RB tg
  • Harris has just two games of 20+ DK pts (20.8, 28.3), scoring 3 TDs
  • In the 28.3 score, NE scored 54 points
  • Stevenson’s one game of 20+ DK pts (30.4) came without Harris in a game NE scored 45 and he scored twice
  • Bolden has one game over 11 DK pts (19.9), and all his pts came through the air