Game Overview ::
By mjohnson86 >>
- You may want to play some players from this game in fantasy, but it is highly recommended that you do not view the game with your eyes.
- The offenses in this game rank 25th and 31st in DVOA, while the defenses rank 29th and 30th.
- Both teams rank top-10 in situation-neutral pass rate and play at a faster than league average pace.
- There appear to be some opportunities to “buy low” on some pieces in this game.
How atlanta Will Try To Win ::
Atlanta has played four games since Calvin Ridley left the team. In those four games, they have faced four of the top six defenses in the league by DVOA. You never want to lose a star player, but the timing could not have been worse for a team trying desperately to hang around the NFC playoff race. Atlanta has played three games this year against bottom-12 defenses (Miami, NY Jets, and Washington), and in those three games, they scored an average of 29 points. Jacksonville ranks 29th in defensive DVOA.
How Atlanta tries to win should be pretty straightforward as their running game is very poor (32nd out of 32 teams in DVOA) and Jacksonville’s defense presents “pass funnel” tendencies as they are top-5 against the run and 31st against the pass. Atlanta’s choices are to use their weakness against their opponent’s strength or use their strength against their opponent’s weakness. As explored above, Atlanta has actually been pretty good offensively against lower-level competition. Matt Ryan took a lot of heat after the Falcons were terrible in prime time against the Patriots in Week 11, but that was a tough matchup on a short week and without their top playmaker in Cordarrelle Patterson. Ryan has quietly been very good this year, ranking as PFF’s 8th graded passer on the season. Atlanta should lean on their passing game in this matchup, and they are likely to have much greater success than the field will likely anticipate, especially if Patterson is active.
How jacksnoville Will Try To Win ::
Jacksonville surprisingly throws at the 9th highest rate in the league and plays at the fastest pace (seconds per snap). Those numbers are surprising for a 2-8 team that has struggled to score points throughout the year and has faced a brutal schedule of defenses this year. This week against Atlanta is by far the best matchup the Jaguars offense has seen all season. Jamal Agnew had provided a spark for the offense in recent weeks but was lost for the season last week, leaving Jacksonville even thinner in their skill positions. Laviska Shenault feels like the player best suited to take on heavier volume, especially for a team like Jacksonville at this point in the season, but it’s probably just as likely that Urban Meyer gives Tavon Austin 12 touches.
Jacksonville will likely have an aggressive, but balanced, approach to the start of this game. A healthy dose of James Robinson is likely in line and he will be used in both the run and pass game against a team that was run through, over, and around by the Patriots and Cowboys running backs over the last couple of weeks. The Jaguars haven’t shown the ability to *effectively* attack through the air on a consistent basis, but it would make sense for them to give Trevor Lawrence a chance to air it out in his first really good matchup he’s seen this year.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
Sam Darnold, Zach Wilson, and Daniel Jones are the only quarterbacks whose teams have failed to score 25 points against the Falcons this year. You could argue that Lawrence is similar to that group at this point, but considering the Jaguars have not scored over 23 points in a game this season it is important to consider the context in which they could put up an outlier game. This is certainly not a matchup of offensive juggernauts, but it is a matchup of the league’s fastest-paced offense against a team that will likely lean extremely pass-heavy. Those factors combine to give a high likelihood of a game with a lot of plays. These offenses are not very efficient so that could be a lot of empty plays, but the secondaries of these teams are bad enough that things could quickly take off. Rookie quarterbacks often come on strong to end the season and this would seem to be a good spot for Lawrence to kick things into gear. A lot of plays, teams with nothing to lose, poor secondaries, and aggressive play-calling is a good recipe for a productive fantasy environment.
Side note: I also think we are at the point in the season where it is important to consider macro trends and team mindsets in our evaluations. The Falcons have been embarrassed in back-to-back weeks, first against “America’s Team” and then on national TV against the Patriots. The playoffs are fading fast for Atlanta and defensive injuries tend to add up over the course of a season, resulting in higher chances of breakdowns, with an already poor group losing some of the little talent they had to begin with. Again, there is nothing concrete here, but there is definitely a lot of fragility from the Vegas total here, where this game could unexpectedly go far over its total.
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DFS+ Interpretation ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
Trevor Lawrence:
- Lawrence has one game of 20+ DK pts since his 25 in a W1 blowout loss
- Lawrence has under 220 yds in 6/10 games
- ATL has only held 3/10 QBs under 220 yds
JAC WRs:
- Evans, McLaurin, Lamb are the only WRs with 20+ DK pts vs ATL, and all three scored 2 TDs
- Smith, Evans, McLaurin, Waddle, Lamb are the only WRs with 70+ rec yds vs ATL
- MJJ yds since Chark injury: 24 // 25 // 100 // 35 // 21 // 35 // 52
- Laviska has one game over 13 DK pts (17), and 7/10 games under 10 DK pts
Dan Arnold:
- Arnold had 60+ yds in 4/5 games before last week’s goose egg
- TEs vs ATL: Ertz (34), Goedert (42:1) // Gronk (39:2) // Engram (21) // RSJ (19) // Gesicki (85:1) // Tremble (18) // Trautman (47) // Schultz (14) // Henry (25)
- Arnold JAC tg: 2, 8, 5, 10, 7, 8, 0
James Robinson:
- Robinson’s rush att in full games: 5 // 11 // 15 // 18 // 18 // 17 // 12 // 12
- Robinson’s playing through injury the last couple weeks has likely limited his touches vs tough run defenses of IND & SF
- Robinson total touches:yds in full games: 11:54 // 14:64 // 21:134 // 20:76 // 19:147 // 21:101 // 17:84:1 // 15:38:1
- Sanders (74) & Hubbard (82) are the only RBs to crack 70 rush yds vs ATL
- Seven other RBs have reached 50 rush yds, & six RBs have reached 30 rec yds vs ATL
- ATL has allowed a RB TD in 8/10 games
Matt Ryan:
- Ryan has 22+ DK pts in 5/10 games, with highs of 29 & 31.5 DK pts
- Ryan has sub-10 DK pts in four of the other five (7.4, 8.1, 2.7, 4.1)
- Ryan’s DK scores since losing Ridley: 8.1, 31.5, 2.7, 4.1
- QB pass yds allowed by JAC over last month: 195 // 264 // 180 // 176
- Ryan’s pass yds since losing Ridley: 146 // 343 // 117 // 153
ATL WRs:
- Targets w/o Ridley: Sharpe (5, 6, 1, 1, 4) // Olamide (4, 1, 3, 7, 5) // Gage (–, 0, 8, 3, 8)
- WRs over 70 yds vs JAC: Cooks (132) // Sutton (159) // Green (112), Kirk (104) // Boyd (118), Chase (77) // Waddle (70:2) // Lockett (142) // Diggs (85) // Pittman (71) // Aiyuk (85:1)
- JAC has allowed the 2nd highest success rate & 4th highest yds/att to WRs
- Zacchaeus has 3 games of 70+ yds in 31 career games
- Sharpe has 3 games of 70+ yds in 61 career games
- Gage has 4 games of 70+ yds in 54 career games
- The only useful ATL WR game since losing Ridley was a game Zacchaeus caught 2 TDs on 3 rec
Kyle Pitts:
- Pitts targets: 8, 6, 3, 9, 10, 8, 6, 7, 7, 5
- Pitts without Ridley: 9:119:1 // 2:13 // 3:62 // 4:60 // 3:29
- JAC has allowed the 2nd highest yds/att to TEs
- TEs with 30+ yds vs JAC: Brown (67) // Fant (33:1) // Uzomah (95:2) // Firkser (33) // Gesicki (115), Smythe (59) // Doyle (31) // Kittle (34:1)
ATL RBs:
- Davis has been out-touched by Gallman & then Ollison on back to back weeks despite CPatt missing most of the two games
- Rush att first four games vs last four full games: CPatt (7 // 7 // 7 // 6 ; 14 // 14 // 9 // 9)
- Davis has yet to top 75 yds on the season, with a rushing yds high of 53
- Gallman topped it in his one game with usage (DAL)
- CPatt has 75+ yds in four of eight full games, but with a rushing yds high of 60
- CPatt’s floor since W2 has been 14 DK pts (23.9, 16.2, 34.6, 18.4, 14.1, 18.2, 22.6)
- CPatt has 7 TDs on the season, with two multi-TD games
- CPatt has 5+ rec in 6/8 full games (2 // 5 // 6 // 5 // 7 // 2 // 5 // 6)
- His rec yds in the games with 5+ rec: 58:1 // 82 // 82:3 // 60 // 37:1 // 126
- RBs with 10+ rush att vs JAC: Ingram (85:1) // Williams (64), Gordon (31) // Conner (43:2), Edmonds (26) // Mixon (67:1) // Henry (130:3) // Collins (44) // Taylor (116:1) // Wilson (50), Sermon (32)
- RBs with 4+ tg vs JAC: DJ (3:18:1) // Edmonds (7:49) // Gaskin (2:5) // Singletary (7:43), Moss (2:18)
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