Game Overview ::
By papy324 >>
- Cam Newton is underpriced for his rushing upside.
- Christian McCaffery played 90% of snaps last week and is back to being king of the ring.
- Myles Gaskin is underpriced for his role and matchup.
- The Dolphins D could rack up sacks.
How carolina Will Try To Win ::
The up and down Panthers come into Week 12 with a 5-6 record, having just brought back their former franchise QB, Cam Newton. Matt Rhule pump-faked the fantasy community by acting as if he wasn’t going to play Cam exclusively at QB before giving him 100% of the snaps. This was likely Rhule’s way of feeling like he gained a “competitive advantage” by keeping the Football Team guessing about which similar style running QB they were going to face. I digress. With Cam returning midseason, and the reintroduction of Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers offense feels more like they are in Week 2 than Week 12.
The Panthers have played on the slower side (20th in situation neutral pace), and while it feels likely they stick with this approach, things could change quickly with Cam getting more comfortable under center. The Dolphins have been easier to pass on (22nd in DOVA) than run on (13th in DVOA), but that difference shouldn’t tilt the Panthers away from trying to figure out their new-look offense. Expect Rhule to try to use Cam’s legs, while incorporating CMC as much as possible without overworking him into another injury. The Panthers are going to try and figure out what works, rather than keep playing in a way they’ve established throughout the season.
How miami Will Try To Win ::
The Dolphins are riding high coming in on a three-game win streak! Unfortunately, they are still only 4-7, and two of those three wins came against the Texans/Jets, two teams that can do wonders for any team’s confidence (just ask the Panthers). Still, the fish must feel like they’ve turned a corner, with their franchise QB back under center and finally experiencing success after an ugly 1-7 start.
Brain Flores has looked lost at times this year, but he’s been coming out aggressively as the Dolphins play fast out of the gate (2nd in situational neutral pace in the 1st half), before slowing down (21st in situational neutral pace in the second half) later in the game. The Panthers defense is strong against the pass (5th in DVOA), and weak against the run (20th in DVOA), creating one of the clearer run funnel defenses in the league. Flores should be able to figure out the best way to win is on the ground. Flores should force the Panthers to prove they can stop the run before attacking them through the air. Expect the Dolphins to come in with an up-tempo run-heavy game plan, hoping to pull ahead before slowing things down in the second half.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
This game has a tiny 42-point total and it’s difficult to project either team to put up a lot of passing yards. That leaves us with two teams whose best way to move the ball will be with time-crunching drives, resulting in fewer plays and points for both sides. The game is expected to be competitive, with under a three-point spread, but the most likely outcome is a grind-it-out affair. The Panthers are the better side, but there are no assurances that they confidently take the lead and cruise to victory. The most likely game flow has this one staying within a score for most of the game, with the Panthers being able to pull away late.
TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND
SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES
TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
- CAR has held seven QBs under 200 pass yds, and the others have thrown for 258, 373, 206
- CAR has allowed the 5th fewest QB DK pts/g (16.8)
- Both of Tua’s games over 20 DK pts (25.4, 28.5) came against defenses allowing 19.4 & 20.9 QB DK pts/g and ranked 29th & 31st in def pass DVOA
- CAR has allowed the 5th fewest WR DK pts/g
- Targets with Tua vs Brissett: Waddle (6, 13, 8, 12, 9 /// 8, 13, 4, 6, 10)
- Tua games: Waddle (4:61:1 // 10:70:2 // 7:83 // 4:29 // 8:65)
- Brissett games: Waddle (6:48 // 12:58 // 3:33 // 2:31 // 8:83)
- McLaurin was the first WR since 2020 to reach 100 yds vs CAR without 7+ rec to get there (Evans, Keenan, Ridley, Julio, Tyreek, Cooks, Thielen)
- CAR’s only 20+ pt WRs allowed in 2021: Davis (5:97:2) // Cooks (9:112) // Thielen (11:126:1) // McLaurin (5:103:1)
- Gesicki tg with Tua (full): 2, 9, 8, 4, 6
- Gesicki tg without Parker: 7, 9, 8, 8, 7, 6
- Gesicki has 40+ yds in 9/11 games (other two he combined for 0 yds)
- Gesicki has 80+ yds in three games
- Notable TEs vs CAR: Schultz (6:58:1) // Goedert (2:28) // Conklin (3:71) // Engram (6:44) // Pitts (2:13) // Henry (2:19:1) // Ertz (4:46)
- Only RBs with 60+ rush yds vs CAR: Zeke (143:1), Pollard (67) // Cook (140:1) // Stevenson (62) // Gibson (95)
- Gaskin has just 3 games of 60+ rush yds (65, 67, 89)
- CAR has allowed just 5 RB rush TDs
- Gaskin has just one rush TD (4 rec TDs)
- CAR has allowed the lowest success rate & yds/att on RB targets
- CPatt (37:1) & Stevenson (44) are the only RBs with 30+ rec yds vs CAR
- QB rushing vs MIA: Allen (35, 55:1) // Tyrod (23) // Lamar (39)
- Cam rushed for 30+ yds in 8 games in 2020 (38, 46, 47, 48, 54, 75, 76, 79) and 12 rush TDs
- Cam rushing in 2021: 3:14:1 // 10:46:1
- Cam scored 26 DK pts in his first start of the year
- MIA has allowed the 7th most QB DK pts/g
- Allen (3) & Brady (5) are the only QBs with more than 2 TDs vs MIA
- Top performing WR vs MIA: Agholor (5:72:1) // Diggs (4:60:1) // Renfrow (5:77:1) // Pittman (6:59) // Brown (7:124:2), Evans (6:113:2) // MJJ (7:100:1) // Gage (4:67:1) // Beasley (10:110) // Cooks (6:56) // Bateman (6:80) // Moore (8:141:1)
- Moore has between 7-13 tg in every game
- Moore’s first four games (DK pts): 15.4 // 21.9 // 23.5 // 34.9
- Moore’s last five games (DK pts): 8.8 // 11.9 // 13.3 // 9.9 // 7.6 // 6.4 // 16
- 20+ pt DK scores with Cam in NE last year: Edelman (28.9) // Meyers (31.9, 21.1) // Byrd (29.3)
- MIA has allowed 30+ rec yds to 6 RBs
- MIA has allowed 60+ rush yds to 8 RBs (3 of 100+)
- MIA allowed 9 RB TDs in first seven weeks, but has allowed none over the last four (those opponents though: BUF, HOU, BAL, NYJ)
- CMC has just 2 TDs in his 5 full games in ‘21
- CMC scored 25 TDs in his 19 games in ‘19 & ‘20
- CMC rushing in 2021: 98 // 72:1 // 52 // 95 // 59
- CMC receiving in 2021: 89 // 65 // 54 // 66 // 60
- Since Week 9 of 2018, CMC has scored under 24 DK pts just six times in 33 full games
- Two of those six came in W17 blowouts vs NOR in which multiple starters either didn’t play or finish game
- One was W9 vs NE in his first game back from a 6-week absence (lighter workload)
- CMC has 30+ pts in 16 of those 33 games and 35+ in 8 of them