Kickoff Sunday, Nov 28th 4:05pm Eastern

Chargers (
25) at

Broncos (
22)

Over/Under 47.0

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Chargers Run D
32nd DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
16th DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
23rd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
13th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
22nd DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
14th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
20th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • This game will be a battle of two teams who operate at very different paces.
  • Both defenses are bottom-5 in the league against the run while having above average secondaries.
  • Denver has gone 2-5 in their last seven games and during that stretch, they have only scored 20+ points two times.
  • This is the first of two divisional matchups between these teams, with both teams needing a win in the tight AFC playoff race.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Los Angeles is a very aggressive team that plays at the 5th fastest situation-neutral pace of play and has a top-5 situation-neutral pass rate. With an elite young QB and a slew of top-tier playmakers at the skill positions, it is not surprising that the Chargers would approach games so aggressively.

We should expect more of the same in this matchup as Los Angeles keeps the same macro offensive approach against every opponent. However, they do an excellent job of changing the areas of the field that they attack depending on the matchup. Denver has been disappointing defensively this season, in large part due to injuries, since their hot start to the year against very poor competition. Denver’s run defense has been especially poor, with their linebacker corps decimated by injuries over the season. While the Chargers are unlikely to turn into a run-heavy team in this matchup, it is likely that they will look to exploit the relative weakness of the Broncos in the middle of the field by getting their tight ends and running backs in space, as well as a healthy dose of Keenan Allen who is particularly effective against man coverage and finding openings in Cover-2 schemes like the one that Denver plays at a high rate. Downfield passing may be tough sledding early on for the Chargers, but may open up throughout the game if they are able to attack effectively in the short and intermediate areas of the field.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Denver plays at a slow pace and throws the ball at a league-average rate. They are a team with a defensive head coach who likes to control the tempo and “keep the game in front of him” by trying to win by winning the turnover battle and field position game, only occasionally turning aggressive on both sides of the ball. Their defensive pass rush is not what it was expected to be coming into the year (Denver’s pass rush is graded 29th by PFF), which has led them to play more conservatively on the back end with a bend but don’t break mentality — Denver’s red zone defense is 8th in the league in red-zone TD rate allowed.

This week, the Broncos face the worst run defense in the league by almost any metric. Denver’s running game has not been elite by any measure this season, but the mentality of their head coach fits perfectly in this spot to attack the glaring weakness of their opponent. Javonte Williams is third in the league in missed tackles forced and feels like he is primed for a breakout down the stretch, while Melvin Gordon has also been very solid with his opportunities this year. The Broncos have a deep pass-catching corps, so when they do throw the ball, they have a lot of options of how to attack. The Chargers are very tough on the perimeter and have some stud pass rushers, making it likely that Noah Fant and/or Jerry Jeudy see a relatively high percentage of targets this week, along with some pass-game usage for the running backs.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Broncos are likely to run the ball at a high volume and, with the 30th situation-neutral pace of play in the league, will bleed the clock as they are highly likely to be able to sustain drives in this manner. Their likely success on the ground and ability to shorten the game will also have an effect on the other side of the ball, as Denver’s ability to put some points on the board in the first half will allow them to play conservatively on defense and force the Chargers to take a more methodical offensive approach.

This game has some potential to become higher scoring, as the Broncos have a higher chance of offensive success this week than they do most weeks and the Chargers have so many explosive offensive pieces. That being said, it will likely take some big plays and/or back and forth scoring in the second half to make that happen. Normally, I would say that if the Chargers are able to take the lead, Denver would likely struggle to get back in the game against such a good pass rush and secondary. Teddy Bridgewater has been more aggressive this year than we’ve seen in the past, but the Chargers’ scheme is designed to force mistakes from teams when they are in predictable situations. However, the Chargers’ secondary is currently battling a slew of injuries with four of their defensive backs not practicing yet this week, making it more likely that in a pass-heavy game script, the Broncos would be able to move the ball and keep it close, as the Steelers were able to do last week.


OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE

BANKROLL TRACKER
TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND
SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES
TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Vegas total of 48 is tied for the second highest on the week
  • LAC’s 25.5 implied total is tied for third highest (risen four points since opening)
  • DEN’s implied total opened at 24 but has since fallen to 22.5
  • The UNDER is 6-4 in LAC games
  • The UNDER is 8-2 in DEN games
  • Per numberFire, LAC ranks second in adjusted seconds per play (28.1) and sixth in adjusted passing rate (63.5%)
  • DEN ranks 28th in adjusted seconds per play (31.2) and 12th in adjusted passing rate (60.8%)

Justin Herbert

  • Ranks tied for fifth in PFF passing grade
  • 39.5 pass attempts per game ranks fourth highest
  • 24.98 DK ppg ranks fourth
  • Four games of 30+ DK pts: 30.84 // 45.82 // 34.64 // 38.28
  • In his other six games, he only hit 20+ pts once (21.28)
  • DEN ranks fourth in DK ppg allowed to QBs (16.6)
  • Only three QBs have hit 20+ pts: Daniel Jones 22.38 // Lamar Jackson 22.44 // Derek Carr 24.54

LAC Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Keenan Allen 88.7% // Mike Williams 77.3% // Jared Cook 57.3% // Jalen Guyton 56.4% // Donald Parham 46.9%
  • Target share: Allen 26.8% // Williams 19.7% // Cook 12.7% // Guyton 6.3% // Parham 4.8%
  • Among qualified WRs, Allen ranks fifth in target share and 12th in WOPR (per Koalaty Stats)
  • His 17.9 DK ppg ranks 13th
  • Allen has scored double digit DK pts in every game but his ceiling so far has been 25.4
  • Williams ranks 24th in air yard market share and 25th in WOPR
  • His 17.6 DK ppg ranks 15th
  • In his first five games, Williams scored 22.2, 22.1, 36.2, 2.1, and 39.5 pts
  • His 20.7 DK pts in Week 11 was the first time he hit double digits since Week 5
  • No other WR has hit double digits for LAC
  • DEN ranks eighth in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Only three opposing WRs has hit 20+ DK pts: Devonta Smith 22.6 // Chase Claypool 27 // Sterling Shepard 27.3
  • Cook is averaging 7.96 DK ppg
  • Parham is averaging 7.03 DK ppg
  • DEN ranks second in DK ppg allowed to TEs (8.3)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Dalton Schultz 9.4 // Darren Waller 10.9 // Mark Andrews 11.7

Austin Ekeler

  • Among qualified RBs, ranks 16th in rush share, fifth in total goal line rushes, 18th in goal line share, fifth in target share, fifth in WOPR, and ninth in RBOPR
  • His 22.5 DK ppg ranks third
  • His DK salary started at $7,000 in Week 1
  • In Week 12, his salary is $8,400 (career high)
  • DEN ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to RBs (22.3)
  • Only three RBs have hit 20+ DK pts: Kenyan Drake 21.3 // Najee Harris 25.2 // D’Ernest Johnson 27.8

Teddy Bridgewater

  • Ranks 13th in PFF passing grade
  • Averaging 16.65 DK ppg
  • Scored 20+ pts in four of 10 games: 20.46 // 24.22 // 25.26 // 21.86
  • LAC ranks sixth in DK ppg allowed to QBs (17.3)
  • Only three QBs have hit 20+ pts: Ben Roethlisberger 22.92 // Patrick Mahomes 24.9 // Baker Mayfield 26

DEN Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Courtland Sutton 86% // Tim Patrick 82.6% // Noah Fant 74.5% // Jerry Jeudy 63.1%
  • Target share: Sutton 19.6% // Fant 17.3% // Patrick 15.5% // Jeudy 8.2%
  • Jeudy has been the WR 3 in snaps in all three of his games since returning from injury in Week 8
  • He’s led the team or tied for first in targets in all three games: 4 // 8 // 9
  • DK log this year: 13.2 // 7.9 // 12.9 // 11.1
  • Sutton’s target counts since Jeudy’s return: 4 // 2 // 3
  • Among all WRs, Sutton ranks 11th in air yard market share and 23rd in WOPR
  • With Jeudy absent, Sutton’s DK log: 27.9 // 8.7 // 7.7 // 28 // 23.4 // 11.8
  • With Jeudy present: 2.4 // 6 // 3.9 // 4.9
  • Patrick’s DK log with Jeudy absent: 12.7 // 14.8 // 6.9 // 15.9 // 13.2 // 3.6
  • With Jeudy present: 13.9 // 9.4 // 18.5 // 4.4
  • LAC ranks sixth in DK ppg allowed to WRs (33.3)
  • Only three opposing WRs have hit 20+ DK pts: Devonta Smith 25.6 // Justin Jefferson 25.9 // Diontae Johnson 26.1
  • Fant has scored double digit DK pts in five of nine games: 12.2 // 13.3 // 16.6 // 24.7 // 10.9
  • LAC ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (17.1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Pat Freiermuth 11.1 // Eric Ebron 11.4 // Logan Thomas 12 // Darren Waller 15 // Tyler Conklin 16.1 // Mark Andrews 17.8 // Travis Kelce 20.4 // David Njoku 30.9

DEN RBs

  • Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams operate in a near 50/50 timeshare
  • Snap share: Gordon 53.5% // Williams 46%
  • Target share: Williams 8.5% // Gordon 8.2%
  • Touches per game: Gordon 13.9 // Williams 12.7
  • Goal line rushes: Gordon 10 // Williams 9
  • RBOPR: Gordon 0.28 // Williams 0.26
  • DK ppg: Gordon 13.24 // Williams 10.3
  • Gordon leads Williams in TDs, seven to two
  • LAC ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (27.2)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Dalvin Cook 20.8 // CEH 20.9 // Kareem Hunt 25.9 // Tony Pollard 26 // Nick Chubb 27