Game Overview ::
By MJOHNSON86 >>
- There are clear paths to this game living up to the hype with another back and forth game involving the Packers.
- Los Angeles has more uncertainty around them than we have become accustomed to, due to personnel, injuries, and the bye week.
- The health of Aaron Jones will likely have a very real effect on how the Packers approach this game and, in turn, what game flow we see.
- The Packers’ defense has had some great games on the surface, but a deeper exploration sees clear “types” of offenses that they have success against and those they struggle with.
How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::
The Rams are a team that, after being very predictable for the first few weeks of the year, has struggled with efficiency and game script over their last two games. Coming out of the bye week, I would expect the Rams to have addressed some of the issues they had heading into the bye. Generally speaking, bye weeks tend to be “direction changers” for a lot of teams. Those teams who go into the bye on a high note will often struggle to continue that success in their first game back (see the Bucs and Seahawks earlier this year) as the bye gets them out of their routine and it is hard to continue that momentum. Meanwhile, those teams who are having issues are able to address them and find answers to get back on track — along with the tactical advantage of time to install new concepts and wrinkles that their next opponent won’t be preparing for. The Rams’ bye came at the perfect time for them as they reconfigure their plans after the loss of Robert Woods and find creative ways to make teams pay for the things they are doing to take away the Rams’ strengths.
The Packers’ defense has performed very well in specific matchups, but those matchups tend to have a “type”: poor offenses and/or teams with very concentrated attacks that are easy to know what to “take away” are the spots that the Packers have had a lot of success. The Packers have only given up 20+ points in four of seven games this year, with those games coming against the 49ers, Vikings, Cardinals, and Bengals. All of those teams have a very broad distribution of touches and/or a depth of playmakers at the skill positions. Those teams also have very clear structures and philosophies to their offenses, something that makes it difficult for the Packers to scheme things away or just focus on taking away personnel. Many will point to the Packers’ defensive success against the Seahawks and Chiefs as reasons to be wary of this matchup, but the Seahawks were coming off a bye and Russell Wilson was still recovering from his gruesome finger injury and the Chiefs’ offensive struggles have mostly been due to their lack of structure and undisciplined offensive approach that relies on Patrick Mahomes’ ad-lib style. Both teams are also highly concentrated towards their top two pass catchers and have poor rushing attacks. The Rams, on the other hand, have a trio of capable wide receivers, an above-average every-down tight end, and a solid running scheme and personnel. The Rams also have one of the better-structured offenses in the league and will find ways to exploit the weaknesses of Green Bay’s defense.
That was a lot of information without getting to the point of “how the Rams will try to win”, but I think it is all extremely relevant information to make an informed decision on addressing that question. The surface stats and circumstances around the Packers’ defense do not do justice to what the reality of this matchup is. Many people will look at the Packers’ box scores and defensive points per game and look back at the high-profile games where they played well as reasons to avoid this spot. However, the Rams’ scheme and depth of personnel allow them to attack opponents in a variety of different ways which becomes a problem for Green Bay’s overachieving defense. At the end of the day, the only sure thing is that Cooper Kupp will get a healthy dose of usage but the Rams’ scheme allows the creativity to move him around and get him the ball in creative ways, making it nearly impossible for the Packers to key on him to the point where they can neutralize him — doing so would require selling out to the point that they would almost certainly be burned repeatedly elsewhere. Green Bay has a poor run defense that the Rams will certainly attack, likely with both running backs mixing in and they should also play with their usual league-leading tempo.
How Green Bay Will Try To Win ::
Green Bay is a team that plays at a snail’s pace and throws at a rate right around the league average. However, there are some interesting things at play in this matchup that can give us a glimpse into what to expect from the Packers::
- First of all, the Rams have the #7 DVOA run defense and rank #1 in PFF’s rush defense grades. The Packers’ offensive line is PFF’s 28th graded unit in run blocking and just lost their best offensive lineman, tackle Elgton Jenkins, for the season to a torn ACL. The Rams’ typically stout pass defense has struggled by most advanced metrics, having success mainly due to a schedule of poor opposing passing offenses. Kyler Murray and Tom Brady are the only passers the Rams have faced that are anywhere near Aaron Rodgers in terms of talent and football IQ, making a recipe for the Packers to take the path of least resistance.
- Second, the Packers’ defense (as noted above) is a unit that has had success against specific types of teams and specific game environments. The result for the offense in those games is conservative play-calling and bleeding the clock. This game environment is one that the defense will likely struggle with, increasing the chances of the Packers staying aggressive and playing at a more normal pace.
- Finally, Aaron Jones’ likely return gives them another explosive option that could increase their chances of big plays and quick scoring drives. His presence may actually help the Packers make the choice to lean into their passing game as his ability to catch balls out of the backfield makes that approach more feasible without becoming too predictable.
The Packers will, at worst, play at their “normal” rates of average pass rate with above-average efficiency but slow pace. At best, they will lean on their MVP quarterback who is coming off a monster performance and be forced to raise their tempo due to their opponent. The Rams’ stout run defense and Packers’ offensive line injuries make it highly unlikely they would increase their run rate and they really can’t go any slower than their usual rate, making their offense a decent bet in this spot.
Likeliest Game flow ::
The Rams play at a breakneck pace and the Packers are likely to raise their pass rate, be fairly efficient doing so, and play at a faster than normal pace against a formidable opponent. The offensive firepower involved in this matchup of two top-5 offenses in the league makes for a potentially juicy offensive environment on the smallest main slate of the year which is lacking several of the top offenses in the league. Green Bay likes to play with a methodical, balanced approach which often makes them frustrating from a fantasy perspective. However, this game has multiple paths to bringing them out of their shell and making this quickly become the most exciting game on the slate.
Both teams are good enough on both sides of the ball while also being very well coached. That makes it difficult to peg a specific game script that is most likely. That may sound like a cop out to what this section is supposed to be about, but it’s a reality here. While I don’t know exactly how it will get there, my feeling is that there are a lot more game flows that result in a high-scoring game than most people will realize. For a game that has this much offensive talent and on a slate that is missing a lot of the top end players in the league, it is noteworthy that there are currently only three players projecting for double-digit ownership — with none over 20%.
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By Alex88 >>
- Vegas total of 47.5 is fourth highest on the week
- From Weeks 1-8, LAR scored at least 20 pts in every game
- In Weeks 9 & 10, they scored 16 and 10 pts
- GB has scored at least 24 pts in all but three games
- Per numberFire, LAR ranks 18th in adjusted seconds per play (29.7) and fourth in adjusted pass rate (65.1%)
- GB ranks 32nd in adjusted seconds per play (32.9) and 13th in adjusted pass rate (60.2%)
- Ranks 12th in PFF passing grade
- 8.3 YPA ranks tied for third
- Averaging the fourth highest passing yards per game (289.3) and the second most passing TDs (2.4)
- 22.9 DK ppg ranks eighth
- In Weeks 1-8, scored less than 20 pts just once (18.22)
- In Weeks 9 & 10, he scored 15.06 and 11.82 pts
- DK salary started at $6,200, hit a peak of $7,700, but has fallen back to $7,100
- GB ranks seventh in DK ppg allowed to QBs (18)
- As a Lion, Stafford has averaged 21.48 DK ppg in Lambeau
- Notable opposing QB scores: Joe Burrow 20.34 // Jared Goff 20.44 // Taylor Heinicke 22.22 // Kirk Cousins 28.24 // Jameis Winston 29.62
LAR Passing Attack
- Highest usage rate of 11 personnel in the league (88%)
- Robert Woods was lost for the season in Week 9
- Week 10 snap count: Cooper Kupp 55 // Tyler Higbee 54 // Van Jefferson 52 // Ben Skowronek 42 // OBJ 15
- Target count: Kupp 13 // Jefferson 7 // Skowronek 5 // Higbee 5 // OBJ 3
- Among qualified WRs, Kupp ranks first in target share, 18th in air yard market share, and third in WOPR (per Koalaty Stats)
- His 27.7 DK ppg is 5.4 pts greater than the next best WR (Deebo Samuel)
- He’s tied for first in TDs with Mike Evans (10)
- He leads all WRs with 24 red zone targets
- Kupp’s DK salary has climbed $4,100 since Week 1 (from $5,500 to $9,600)
- Jefferson has had four double digit games: 16 // 21 // 14.3 // 11.8
- With Woods out and DeSean Jackson gone from the team, no other WR has hit double digit pts
- GB ranks seventh in DK ppg allowed to WRs (33.8)
- Notable opposing WR scores: Adam Thielen 22.2 // Diontae Johnson 24.2 // Terry McLaurin 28.2 // Ja’Marr Chase 30.9 // Justin Jefferson 40.2
- Higbee has averaged 9.04 DK ppg, with four double digit totals: 11.8 // 15 // 10.1 // 11
- GB ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (13.1)
- Notable opposing TE scores: Ricky Seals-Jones 11.1 // Gerald Everett 14.3 // George Kittle 17.1 // Travis Kelce 17.8 // TJ Hockenson 20.6
- Among qualified RBs, ranks eighth in rush share, 10th in goal line share, 17th in target share, 13th in WOPR, and 11th in RBOPR
- He’s averaging 15.52 DK ppg on 16.6 touches per game
- DK log: 15.7 // 17.2 // 16.6 // 16.9 // 24.7 // 9.4 // 22.3 // 8.8 // 8.1
- RB ranks eighth in DK ppg allowed to RBs (22.2)
- Only two opposing RBs have hit 20+ DK pts: Najee Harris 21.1 // Dalvin Cook 22.5
- Ranks 11th in PFF passing grade
- Averaging his lowest pass attempts per game since 2014 (32.8)
- 20.9 DK ppg ranks 11th
- His 36.5 pts last week was the first time he scored over 25 since Week 2 vs. DET
- LAR ranks eighth in DK ppg allowed to QBs (18.3)
- Notable opposing QB scores: Kyler Murray 22.62 // Davis Mills 24.4 (not a typo) // Tom Brady 31.68
GB Passing Attack
- Third highest usage rate of 12 personnel (30%)
- Snap share: Davante Adams 78.3% // MVS 65.6% // Allen Lazard 61.4% // Randall Cobb 49.9% // Marcedes Lewis 45.4%
- Target share: Adams 28.7% // Cobb 9.2% // MVS 8.1% // Lazard 7% // Lewis 3.8%
- Among qualified WRs, Adams ranks third in total air yards, second in target share, third in air yard market share, and first in WOPR (per Koalaty Stats)
- His 21.2 DK ppg ranks fourth
- He’s had half as many TDs this year as Cooper Kupp (5)
- Adams is tied for fifth in total red zone targets (15)
- Cobb has only two double digit DK games: 23.9 // 16.5
- Before last week’s 25.3 pt explosion, MVS had only had one other double digit total (14.9 @ SF)
- Lazard has hit double digits twice: 11.7 // 17
- LAR ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (36.8)
- Notable opposing WR scores: Brandin Cooks 20.3 // Kalif Raymond 20.6 // Mike Evans 21.6 // Michael Pittman 23.3 // DK Metcalf 26.8 // Deebo Samuel 30.3
- Because he caught a TD, Josiah Deguara became the first non-Robert Tonyan TE to hit double digits for GB (11.7)
- LAR ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (16.4)
- Notable opposing TE scores: Jordan Akins 10.3 // TJ Hockenson 10.8 // Geoff Swaim 12.9 // Jack Doyle 13.4 // George Kittle 16 // Maxx Williams 17.6
- With Aaron Jones out in Week 11, Dillon produced 11 rushing attempts for 53 yards and caught all six of his targets for 44 yards
- Those 11 attempts were the third lowest by the lead GB rusher in a game this season
- He scored 15.7 DK pts
- In Week 10, in which Jones was hurt and Dillon took over, Dillon scored 26.8 pts
- Dillon’s DK salary shot up $1,400 before his Week 11 start but has since fallen $300
- LAR ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (23.4)
- Notable opposing RB scores: Giovani Bernard 20.1 // James Conner 20.6 // Chase Edmonds 20.9 // David Montgomery 21.8 // D’Andre Swift 28.4