Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- 49ers running back JaMycal Hasty appears headed for a third consecutive missed game, while Elijah Mitchell sets his sights on returning from a one-game absence following surgery on his finger.
- The Vikings appear to be healthier than they’ve been in some time, particularly in the secondary.
- Both defenses rank in the bottom half of the league in opponent red zone touchdown rate allowed, while both offenses rank in the top five.
- One of the best game environments on the slate, and it currently appears the field is not regarding it as such.
How minnesota Will Try To Win ::
Following a three-point victory over the Packers in Week 11, the Vikings have now played nine of ten games to a one-score game. That’s almost unheard of in today’s NFL landscape. I’ll say that again: nine of the Vikings ten games this year have been decided by seven points or less. What’s even more interesting is the way they have gone about doing this, seemingly mirroring the offensive approach of each opponent. As in, they are unlikely to push the envelope on their own and have largely played to their opponent. Since Vikings games remain close throughout, it typically harbors a game environment where production is much easier to project and game environments land in Xandamere’s “barbell” of potential outcomes. Said another way, Vikings games often either completely fail or surpass expectations. One thing that really stands out here is the pace of play splits for the Vikings offense, as they increase their pace of play to the extreme when trailing (second-ranked 22.20 seconds per play when trailing by seven or more points).
Running back Dalvin Cook leads the league in snap rate played when healthy, checking in with 71% of the offensive snaps played or more in every healthy game. We’ve spoken to the expected positive regression as far as touchdowns go, as he has scored only four total touchdowns a year after scoring 17. Minnesota ranks fifth in the league in red-zone touchdown rate on offense, meaning a lot of the low touchdowns numbers from Dalvin this year can be attributed to variance and noise. I’d expect that trend to reverse to finish out the year. The matchup on the ground yields a disgusting 3.775 net-adjusted line yards metric, as the Niners rank top five in the league against the run and the Vikings rank bottom five. Dalvin is unlikely to see a significant boost in efficiency here, thusly relying on pass game involvement and touchdowns to return value on his steep price tag. Behind Dalvin, expect Alexander Mattison to mix in for a modest backup role.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins has attempted between 34 and 38 passes in seven of the Vikings ten games, with one game of 28 pass attempts, one game of 48 pass attempts, and one game of 49 pass attempts. That gives us a solid baseline when projecting expected pass volume for this team moving forward. Now consider the fact that the primary pass-catchers are a condensed group consisting of Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, KJ Osborn (kind of?), tight end Ty Conklin, and the running backs, and we’re left with one of the more bankable and predictable offenses in the league. The matchup with the Niners tilts expected volume and production towards the short and intermediate middle of the field, providing a slight boost to Adam Thielen and Ty Conklin, although the 49ers have largely limited opposing tight end production against this season.
How san francisco Will Try To Win ::
The 49ers would like to control games through their own run game and an efficiency-driven pass game, which typically relies on splash plays and red-zone efficiency (number one ranked red zone touchdown rate) for their value. That said, this team has scored four touchdowns or more in half of their games this season, and their opponent this week is one that should force them into increased aggression. The Vikings also run the fifth most offensive plays per game and increase their pace of play to extreme levels when trailing, which is a significant boost to the expected volume for San Francisco here.
The run game is the one spot where we’re left with a good deal of unknowns in this game, as JaMycal Hasty is highly likely to miss this game, and Elijah Mitchell appears ready to return from a one-game absence after having surgery to repair ligaments in his finger. We should tentatively expect Mitchell to regain his lead-back role if he is able to return, while Jeff Wilson, Jr. acts as the primary change of pace back, and Trey Sermon is available for emergency duties. Although this backfield lacks floor due primarily to low usage through the passing game, the touchdown equity and splash play potential keep the ceiling very high considering price. The matchup on the ground yields an above-average 4.425 net-adjusted line yards metric, held down by the 49ers low marks in metric (again, George Kittle is this team’s best run-blocker, and he missed a good chunk of the season).
The standard range of outcomes as far as pass attempts go for Jimmy Garoppolo is 27-30, but we’ve seen extreme outlier games on either side of that range on multiple occasions this season (four games of 25 pass attempts or fewer and two games of 40 pass attempts). The big picture with this offense is they are much more reliant on their ability to generate splash plays than they are on volume. The three primary playmakers through the passing game (George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk) are all amongst the league leaders in splash plays generated over the previous two seasons. The matchup shouldn’t hinder this offense’s chances at generating those same splash plays, which is simultaneously a hinder to expected volume but a boost to expected efficiency.
Likeliest Game Flow ::
Because we can be fairly certain that the Vikings will play to the level of their opponents, game flow and game environment are often driven by whoever they are playing. The big picture is that the percentage solution for Vikings games is that we see a close game throughout, with this team equipped to shootout with the best of them but largely unwilling to be the aggressor on their own. Enter a 49ers team that lives off of splash play creation, with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk amongst the top “splash play potential” players at their respective positions. All of that to say, this game has as high a likelihood as any other this weekend to turn into the top game environment on the slate and falls on a week where there is only one game with a Vegas total over 50 points (TB @ IND). We’re likeliest to see the 49ers dictate the game flow and the Vikings dictate the game environment, which is a positive to the game overall as the 49ers are set up in such a positive matchup.
OWS FAM GOOGLE DRIVE
TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND
SORTABLE GREEN ZONE TOUCHES
TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
DFS+ Interpretation ::
By Dwprix >>
- 2nd highest total on 10 game slate (49)
- Total has risen from 46.5
- Line opened -6.5 but has moved towards MIN w/ SF now favored by 3.5
- MIN is 6-4 ATS, SF is 4-6
- SF & MIN are in the Wildcard hunt at 5-5
- Both teams are in as of Friday (NO loss on Thurs pushed SF into 7th spot)
- SF is 1-4 at home (1-4 ATS) // MIN is 2-3 on the road (4-1 ATS)
- SF has held its last two opponents to 10 pts (JAX & LAR)
- Both teams have won their last 2 games
- MIN has scored 30+ five times, SF has scored 30+ in four
- SF has won every game they’ve scored 30+ (implied pt total of 26.25 this week)
- MIN has played 3 OT games already this season (BAL, CAR, CIN)
- SF ranks 1st in RZ scoring % (77.8) // MN ranks 5th (67.7)
- MIN/SF faced off in 2018 & 2019 playoffs
- 2019: SF 27-MIN 10 // 2018: MIN 24-SF 16
- Faced MN twice as SF QB: 2019 Playoffs (11:19:131:1 TD:1 INT:8.24 DK pts) // 2018 (15:33:261:1 TD:3 INTs:12.04 DK pts)
- Pass atts in wins: (22, 19, 28, 30, 25) // In losses (40, 27, 23, 40)
- In 9 games he’s thrown for 300+ 3 times
- No 3 TD games but 2 total TDs/g in last 4 (6 pass, 2 rush)
- Jimmy has 2 games w/ 20+ DK pts (23.3, 30.3)
- This week ties season high in price ($5.7k)
- To pay off DK salary: 3x-(17.1) // 4x-(22.8) // 5x-(28.5)
- MIN ranks 30th in DK pts allowed to QBs (21.5)
Deebo Samuel/Brandon Aiyuk:
- SF ranks 1st in yds/rec (12.1)
- Deebo ranks 4th in yds/rec (18.1) (min 20 rec)
- MIN ranks 29th in yards allowed/rec (11.5)
- Deebo saw just 2 tgts last week but 8 carries for 79:1 TD
- 4 straight w/o 10+ tgts (1, 5, 9, 9)
- Rushing last 2: 15:115:2 TDs
- 8 Total TDs (5 rec, 3 rush)
- 1st in YAC (525), 2nd in rec yds/g (99.4)
- Samuel ($7.9k, season high) is the 4th highest priced WR (Kupp, Adams, Jefferson)
- Aiyuk tgts first 5 games: (4, 3, 6, 2, 0) // Last 5: (7, 4, 8, 7, 1)
- 2 TDs in past 3
- RZ tgts: Deebo (8) // Aiyuk (7) // Kittle (3)
- MIN 20+ DK pts allowed: (WK 11: Davante-33.5 + MVS-25.3) // (WK 9: Hollywood-23.6) // (WK 8: Cooper-29.2 + Ceedee-20.2, also Wilson w/ 18.8) // (WK 3: DK-25.7) // (WK 2: Rondale Moore-27.4) // (WK 1: Ja’marr Chase-23.90)
- MIN is 30th in DK pts allowed to WRs (43.9)
- TD in 3 straight (after going 11 straight w/o a TD)
- Tgts:rec:yds since return from IR: (4:4:34) // (7:5:50) // (8:6:101)
- Kittle has caught 3 of 3 RZ tgts for TDs
- $6.4k in salary is a season high & the highest TE on slate
- MIN ranks 4th in DK pts allowed to TEs (8.8/g)
- Elijah Mitchell could return (broken finger)
- Mitchell rush atts w/ Jimmy: (27, 8+5 rec, 18, 18, 17, 19)
- w/o Mitchell, atts were spread out last week: (Wilson-19, Sermon-10, Deebo-8)
- SF ranks 8th in rush yds/g (123.2) & 16th in yds/rush (4.2)
- MIN ranks 27th in rush yds allowed/g (127.0) & last in yds/rush (4.8)
- Mitchell ($5.4k) is the cheapest he’s been in 3 games
- Wilson is $5.3k this week // He was $5k when he returned from IR
- He’s went 29:78 yds the past two games
- MIN allows the 11th most DK pts to RBs (24.7)
- vs SF past two: 2019 Playoffs (21:29:172 yds: 1 TD, 1 INT 9.88 DK pts) // 2018 (20:36:224:2 TDs, 20.36 DK pts)
- Cousins had his 4th 300+ pass yd game & 4th 3 pass TD game last week
- He has 25+ DK pts in 5 games
- MIN ranks 9th in pass atts/g (37.6) // SF allows the 3rd least (31.3)
- Cousins has 30+ pass atts in all but one & 40+ in 2 games
- His price ($6.3k) is the highest he’s been since WK 5
- SF allows the 3rd least pass yds/g (202.4), 5th least pass TDs, have the 2nd fewest INTs (4) & allow the 16th most DK pts/g to QBs (19.8)
Justin Jefferson/Adam Thielen:
- Thielen has a TD in all but 3 games (8 total)
- RZ tgts: Thielen (12) // Jefferson (16)
- Rec of 20+ yds: Jefferson 17 (T-1st, Kupp) // Thielen 11 (T-13th)
- Jefferson’s price (8.3k) has went up 5 weeks in a row
- He’s 4th in rec yds/g (94.4) & 9th in air yds (1,060)
- DK pts last 4: Jefferson (40.2, 25.9, 17.0, 4.1) // Thielen (22.2, 11.5, 8.6, 19.8)
- Theilen ($6.7k) has been in the upper $6k’s the past 4 weeks
- He has one 20+ DK pt game & 2 others w/ 30+
- SF allows 34.7 pts/g to WRs (13th fewest)
- Cook’s ($8.1k) scored 20+ DK pts in 4 of 8 (22.5, 20.8, 25.3, 21.4) but hasn’t reached 3.5x salary this season
- He’s $1k cheaper than he was to start the season
- Cook atts last 5: (22, 24, 17, 18, 29)
- Of those, the only games w/o 20+ atts were in losses
- Mattison atts last 5: (3, 4, 4, 2, 3)
- Four RBs have scored 20+ vs SF: WK 1 (Swift 25.0 & Williams 24.4) // WK 7 (Taylor 22.0) // WK 9 (Conner-40.3)
- SF allows the 12th least DK pts to RBs (23.1) but 13th most rush yds/g (115.9), 3rd most rush TDs/g (1.3) & their opponents rush play % is the 8th highest (44.13)
- Conklin tgts last 4: (3, 5, 7, 7)
- He has 2 of 10 w/ 15+ DK pts, both of those w/ a TD
- His price ($3.7k) came down after a season high $3.9k last week
- SF allows the 6th least DK pts to TEs (8.9)
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