Kickoff Thursday, Nov 25th 12:30pm Eastern

Bears (
22.25) at

Lions (
19.25)

Over/Under 41.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bears Run D
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
26th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
10th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
28th DVOA/18th Yards per pass
Lions Run D
31st DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
22nd DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
29th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
27th DVOA/30th Yards per pass

THANKSGIVING SLATE


The Thanksgiving Slate has been combined into One slate writeup.
You will find the same information for all three games in their respective links.
however, if you’re looking for showdown strategy, xandamere provides his thoughts inside each game link

Slate Overview ::

By HILOW >>
  • This slate involves three games that carry a likeliest scenario of being more slugfest than shootout, placing a high emphasis on touchdowns for separator fantasy scores (meaning a highly variant slate – discussed more below).
  • Chicago’s notable injuries include quarterback Justin Fields, running back Damien Williams, wide receiver Allen Robinson II, and defensive tackle Akiem Hicks.
  • Detroit’s notable injuries include quarterback Jared Goff, outside linebacker Trey Flowers, right tackle Matt Nelson, and right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai.
  • Everything the Bears try to do on offense lines up well with weaknesses in the Lions defense.
  • The quarterback situation in Detroit is one to monitor, as it is likely to heavily influence the overall fantasy prospectus from the first game on the slate.
  • Las Vegas is entirely broken, and I was almost hoping the game environment from last week would carry them into some level of production so we could gain solid leverage on this Thanksgiving slate by fading them.
  • CeeDee Lamb is likely to miss with a concussion, while Ezekiel Elliott picked up a knee injury in Week 11 – expect Dallas to place a high emphasis on the run game here.
  • Tremaine Edmunds returned to full practice for the Bills, while Star Lotulelei remains on the league’s COVID list.
  • Alvin Kamara, Ryan Ramczyk, Adam Trautman, Marcus Davenport, and Landon Young failed to practice Monday for the Saints – significant hits to both sides of the ball.
  • The last game of the day involves two teams who suddenly find themselves fighting for the final playoff spot in their respective conferences (both the Bills and Saints currently sit in the seventh spot in the AFC and NFC, respectively).
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How CHicago Will Try To Win ::

Chicago has been the most run-heavy team in the league through 11 weeks with a 50% situation-neutral pass rate. Their pass rate with a lead sits at a laughably low 39%, while their pass rate when trailing sits at a still-ridiculously low 59%. It is no secret that this team is (was?) built around the run. That said, the vast majority of that data came with Justin Fields as the starter (has been the starter since Week 3) and the team is coming off of a game that saw them call a pass play at a 63% rate with three-quarters of the game played with Andy Dalton at the helm. In a Week 1 trouncing at the hands of the Rams (the only full game in which Andy Dalton started and finished), the Bears passed at a 60.6% clip. The bottom line is we don’t fully know what this team will look like on Thanksgiving day as far as play selection goes, assuming Justin Fields remains out (likely). What we do know is that this defense has largely underperformed to start the year, ceding the sixth-most yards per drive and points per drive, the eighth largest time of possession per drive, and the ninth highest drive success rate against. On top of that, they have forced only ten turnovers through their first ten games. Overall, the Bears have played at the league’s slowest pace with the game within seven points and the 25th-ranked overall pace of play.

The big news to follow regarding this backfield leading up to Thursday is the status of backup running back Damien Williams, who has missed the last two games with calf and knee injuries. He popped on the estimated practice report as a DNP on Monday, indicating a high likelihood that he is unable to make it back on a short week. Should that be the case, David Montgomery will have this backfield largely to himself (snap rates of 85% and 95% in the two games in which Williams has missed) against an opponent allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, including 17 total touchdowns allowed to the position (second-most in the league). The matchup yields a slightly above average 4.35 net-adjusted line yards metric and we should expect 18-22 running back opportunities from Montgomery working alone.

It’s a similar story for the pass-catchers, as WR1 Allen Robinson II missed Week 11 with a hamstring injury and was listed as a DNP on Monday’s estimated practice report. In that Week 11 game, we saw the team operate in elevated 12-personnel rates when compared to their season average, making the only near every-down wide receiver Darnell Mooney. Marquise Goodwin and Damiere Byrd played 71% and 63% of the offensive snaps, respectively, with Jakeem Grant on hand for light package snaps. Cole Kmet operated in a near every-down role, while blocking tight end Jesse James saw 32% of the offensive snaps, and money pit red zone threat Jimmy Graham saw just 20% of the offensive snaps. Expect a similar breakdown should Robinson miss. Although the DVOA numbers for the Lions against the pass appear “okay” on the top level, they have allowed the second-most yards per completion this season (12.1). Two guesses as to which team leads the league in intended air yards per pass attempt… yup, you nailed it! The Bears! All three primary wide receivers for the Bears this season (Allen Robinson II, Darnell Mooney, and Marquise Goodwin) hold aDOTs of 11.4 or higher, while Cole Kmet holds a high-for-a-tight-end aDOT of 8.4. Almost everything this Bears offense attempts to accomplish should fall into a “path of least resistance.” Finally, I can’t leave this section of the writeup without mentioning that Darnell Mooney saw 16 (!!!) targets last week in his first game played without Allen Robinson on the field. We shouldn’t expect another 16-target outburst here, but nine to 12 targets are highly likely should Robinson miss.

How Detroit Will Try To Win ::

It currently appears as if Jared Goff has a chance to return this week following a one-game absence, but we’ll need to see further reports out of Detroit before we can reach any conclusions. What we do know is that this Lions team was rightfully cautious in their offensive approach with Tim Boyle at quarterback in Week 11, meaning “how Detroit will try to win” depends a good deal on which quarterback we see here. Jared Goff was labeled as limited in Monday’s walkthrough injury report, an upgrade from the week of missed practices he saw last week. With Goff at the helm, this Lions team is built from the run up, meaning a good deal of what they look to accomplish is based on the run game. Their 61% situation-neutral pass rate on the season is inflated due to the routinely negative game scripts they have been forced into thus far, and, as we’ve spoken to in this space before, the Lions are willing and able to increase their second-half pace of play and pass rates to the extremes should they be trailing. Injuries and ineffective play from Goff have kept their pass game to mostly short area and low upside-generating pass work. On the season, Goff’s 6.0 intended air yards per pass attempt rank 34th of 34 qualified passers. His completed air yards per pass attempt (2.5) and completed air yards per completion (3.8) also rank dead last in the league, by a large margin (like a large margin; as in, 25% less than the next-lowest ranked player in Ben Roethlisberger). We knew coming into this season that new offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn has previously designed a passing game around the power run game, but he typically liked to dial-up an aggressive downfield approach through the air. That simply can’t be the case with Goff at quarterback, and we’ve seen the rest play out exactly as expected.

Lead back D’Andre Swift has seen a 71% snap rate or higher in every single game since Week 4, and regular backup Jamaal Williams has played in all but two of those games, meaning the increase wasn’t simply due to personnel necessity. Furthermore, he has seen at least 17 running back opportunities in every game since the last time these two teams played, way back in Week 4. Further, furthermore, almost 40% of his opportunities come through the air as targets in negative game scripts, keeping his weekly floor about on par with any other back in the league. Expect Jamaal Williams to fill his standard 25-30% snap rate role with minimal room for excessive fantasy productions outside of an extreme outlier game. The matchup on the ground yields an above-average 4.435 net-adjusted line yards metric against a defense allowing below-average fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, primarily due to the low receiving numbers against. Of note, the right side of Detroit’s offensive line missed Monday’s walkthrough, so keep an eye on their expected level of involvement leading up to Thursday.

As we touched on above, this passing attack is almost entirely built around the short areas of the field, due primarily to the limitations of quarterback Jared Goff. Josh Reynolds joined this pass-catching unit before their Week 11 game and immediately stepped into a featured role, playing the most snaps of any pass-catcher (90%). Expect him to be joined by Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond, and every-down tight end TJ Hockenson with all three likely to see 75-90% of the offensive snaps. Chicago has allowed a poor 10.7 yards per completion and league average 65.51% completion rate against, but the big picture is this passing offense is largely limited by either a quarterback in Jared Goff incapable of attacking downfield or a quarterback in Tim Boyle that limits the overall capabilities and effectiveness of the offense.

Likeliest Game flow ::

The lowest game total (41.5) on tap for Thanksgiving comes with the lowest spread of the slate (3.5). The fantasy prospectus of this game depends largely on Detroit’s ability to return punches, as the Bears are entirely capable of generating splash plays both on the ground and through the air. The likeliest game flow sees Chicago asserting control sooner rather than later, leaving the game flow in their hands and the game environment likely reliant on the quarterback situation out of Detroit, and, thusly, their ability to turn second-half aggression into points on the scoreboard. Should Jared Goff play, we should see a boost to the overall game environment in the second half and additional offensive plays available to each team. Should Tim Boyle start for Detroit, we might be left with a second-half that could drive you to start drinking craft beer before dinner (or put you to sleep).


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TOP PLAYS OF THE WEEKEND
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TEAM & PLAYER DK POINTS
WEEKLY HAND-BUILDER

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN NOTES

  • David Montgomery is the clear best overall play in this game. It looks unlikely that Damien Williams will play, but if he does, just be a little wary as he would likely steal a bit of Monty’s pass-game work. 
  • All of the Chicago tight ends (Kmet, James, and Graham) are viable in Showdown. Kmet is the clear best option, but either of the others could steal a touchdown. 
  • Mooney’s the best receiver option in the game on either side of the ball. Robinson is unlikely to play, but if he does, he would be a somewhat sneaky “bet on talent” option.
  • On the Lions side, it’s “yuck” all across the board. Swift is clearly the best option, followed by Hockenson, followed by their random smattering of wide receivers. Josh Reynolds stands out as he led the Lions in offensive snaps last week but is only $1,400. 
  • I expect most people will build around the Bears winning the game but note this is a very close spread. The Lions have a real chance at winning this and the Bears are not exactly a great football team. Building Lions-heavy is a way to get some leverage on the field without needing an enormous outlier outcome.
  • Jamaal Williams stands out to me as an interesting low-owned play (or at least I’m guessing he’ll be low-owned). Check projections, of course, but if he’s under 20% or so, he falls neatly into the “RB2 in Showdown at low ownership” bucket.
Some Groups to Consider
  • At most 1 kicker
  • At most 1 defense
  • Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)
  • If using an RB captain, apply a negative correlation to the opposing defense and kicker (you can see how to do so in my FantasyLabs tutorial video)
  • Pair captain quarterbacks with at least 2 pass catchers
  • At most 1 Bears wide receiver besides Mooney
  • At most 1 of Graham and James

SLATE DFS+ Interpretation ::


Kickoff Thursday, Nov 25th 4:30pm Eastern

Raiders (
21.5) at

Cowboys (
29)

Over/Under 50.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Raiders Run D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
17th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
25th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
7th DVOA/8th Yards per pass
Cowboys Run D
18th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
25th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
1st DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
17th DVOA/4th Yards per pass

THANKSGIVING SLATE


The Thanksgiving Slate has been combined into One slate writeup.
You will find the same information for all three games in their respective links.
however, if you’re looking for showdown strategy, xandamere provides his thoughts inside each game link

Slate Overview ::

By HILOW >>
  • This slate involves three games that carry a likeliest scenario of being more slugfest than shootout, placing a high emphasis on touchdowns for separator fantasy scores (meaning a highly variant slate – discussed more below).
  • Chicago’s notable injuries include quarterback Justin Fields, running back Damien Williams, wide receiver Allen Robinson II, and defensive tackle Akiem Hicks.
  • Detroit’s notable injuries include quarterback Jared Goff, outside linebacker Trey Flowers, right tackle Matt Nelson, and right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai.
  • Everything the Bears try to do on offense lines up well with weaknesses in the Lions defense.
  • The quarterback situation in Detroit is one to monitor, as it is likely to heavily influence the overall fantasy prospectus from the first game on the slate.
  • Las Vegas is entirely broken, and I was almost hoping the game environment from last week would carry them into some level of production so we could gain solid leverage on this Thanksgiving slate by fading them.
  • CeeDee Lamb is likely to miss with a concussion, while Ezekiel Elliott picked up a knee injury in Week 11 – expect Dallas to place a high emphasis on the run game here.
  • Tremaine Edmunds returned to full practice for the Bills, while Star Lotulelei remains on the league’s COVID list.
  • Alvin Kamara, Ryan Ramczyk, Adam Trautman, Marcus Davenport, and Landon Young failed to practice Monday for the Saints – significant hits to both sides of the ball.
  • The last game of the day involves two teams who suddenly find themselves fighting for the final playoff spot in their respective conferences (both the Bills and Saints currently sit in the seventh spot in the AFC and NFC, respectively).
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How LAS VEGAS Will Try To Win ::

As we uncovered last week (when it seemed Xandamere and I were the only ones off the Cincy / Vegas game), this Raiders offense is entirely broken in the absence of Dingle McNumbnuts (sorry, I still refuse to even put this dude’s name on the internet). In the three games played without their primary downfield threat, the Raiders have scored 16, 14, and 13 points. Derek Carr has failed to surpass 300 yards through the air after going over that mark in five of their first seven games. On top of that, Las Vegas still can’t run the ball effectively, with (insert Raiders running back) going over 100 yards only once all season, and that player was Peyton Barber in an overtime game way back in Week 3. In an attempt to make up for the loss of their downfield threat, the team went out and signed DeSean Jackson before their Week 9 contest, who has played 17% and 34% of the offensive snaps over the previous two games. On the season, Derek Carr ranks top ten in intended air yards per pass attempt, completed air yards per completion, and total air yards, indicating an offense that likes to attack the deep areas of the field but has largely been unable to do so with pass-catchers consisting of Bryan Edwards, Zay Jones, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller.

For as broken as the passing game is, this run game is in even worse shape. The Raiders offensive line has been completely unable to generate any push up front, leading to an offense averaging only 3.7 yards per carry on the season. The team went out and signed Kenyan Drake to be their (completely overpaid) change of pace and pass down back, and have proceeded to feed him 12 or fewer running back opportunities in four of the last five games. The matchup on the ground yields a slightly below average 4.22 net-adjusted line yards metric against a defense holding opposing backfields to only 21.8 fantasy points per game.

On top of all the recent struggles from this passing offense, you might be surprised to hear that Derek Carr hasn’t thrown for more than two touchdowns in any game this year. Dallas ranks above average in opponent completion rate allowed at 63.03% but has struggled with downfield passing, primarily due to an overly aggressive secondary (11.2 yards allowed per completion). Bryan Edwards and Zay Jones both operate in the deep areas of the field, with aDOTs of 15.7 and 19.2, respectively, but don’t possess the same separation ability as Dingle did in the deep passing game. Hunter Renfrow (5.7 aDOT) and Darren Waller (9.6 aDOT) round out the primary pass-catchers, creating an offense with very defined roles and route trees. The matchup sets up best for Hunter Renfrow and Bryan Edwards (Dallas struggles over the short middle and deep right areas of the field, away from Trevon Diggs), while volume is most likely to flow through the lower upside of Renfrow and Darren Waller (Edwards has a season high of only six targets). 

How DALLAS Will Try To Win ::

The Cowboys tentatively expect tackle Tyron Smith back from injury for Thanksgiving, providing a solid boost to the run game. The biggest news to follow for Dallas is the status of alpha wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, who left Week 11 with a concussion. The Cowboys are already down Amari Cooper (who will miss this game on the COVID list), so CeeDee’s ability to pass through the league’s concussion protocols in time to play is of large significance to how we can expect this offense to look this week. I won’t call it impossible for a young player to pass the concussion protocol in only three days, but the odds are certainly against Lamb making it through in time. Should CeeDee miss (again, most likely scenario), we should see an offense built around Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard in the backfield, with a primary pass-catching corps consisting of Michael Gallup and Noah Brown on the perimeter, Cedrick Wilson in the slot, and Dalton Schultz at tight end. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz as the only near every-down pass-catchers, with Malik Turner also on hand to rotate through.

While we should expect to see a larger than normal emphasis placed on the run game from the Cowboys here, we’re also unlikely to see lead back Ezekiel Elliott’s workload increase significantly, with the team instead electing to work Tony Pollard in more. We’ve seen the team hesitant to give Zeke more than 18-22 opportunities, and he is now coming off a game where he picked up a knee injury. I’d expect Pollard to see as many as 18-22 opportunities of his own here, considering all factors in play. The matchup yields a well above average 4.695 net-adjusted line yards metric against a defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields (27.7).

As explored last week, the Raiders filter the majority of opposing pass production to the middle of the field through tight ends and running backs, elevating the fantasy prospectus of every-down tight end Dalton Schultz and the running back duo. When we then consider the state of the Cowboys’ pass-catching corps (with Amari Cooper out and CeeDee Lamb unlikely to make it through concussion protocols in time), we’re left with a situation where the wide receivers must rely on outlier production through busted coverages and/or touchdowns to provide a score worthy of consideration, even on a short slate (more on this in the DFS+ Interpretation section).

Likeliest Game flow ::

We’re likeliest to see the Cowboys control the tempo, flow, and environment through their offensive and defensive lines, creating a game that is likely to be even more lopsided than the current spread of 7.5 points implies. Dallas should have no issue grinding out the game through the run and short passing, eating up time of possession and field position along the way. Although less than likely, Dallas has shown a tendency to be overly aggressive in the secondary, which opens up a small window for the Raiders, and their downfield-oriented offense, to strike fast. Should that happen (and it’ll only take one), this game has the makings to develop into the top game environment on the short slate – I just wouldn’t call it likely.


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XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN NOTES

  • Dallas is a heavy favorite and highly likely to lean on the run game if they can.
  • As Hilow and I discussed in last week’s Saturday show, the Raiders are (somewhat quietly) one of the best defenses in the NFL at limiting wide receiver production (and hey, look at that, the Bengals passing attack flopped at pretty high ownership). 
  • The Cowboys want to be run-heavy as long as the game allows it (which it should), and their wide receivers have a bad matchup; there isn’t a lot to recommend Gallup here, though I expect he will be highly owned as the WR1 of the Dallas offense (assuming Lamb misses).
  • Given the matchup and likeliest game flow, I’m okay playing Zeke and Pollard together.
  • The Raiders are almost certain to have to win through the air if they’re going to win.
  • The likeliest game flow is Dallas pushing on the ground, with the Raiders trying to keep up through the air, which means an easy contrarian “flip the script” setup is betting on the Raiders ground game and the Dallas passing attack.
  • Noah Brown should be in a nearly full-time role at $600, making him the premier value play in this one.
  • Don’t overlook DeSean Jackson in tourneys. D-Jax played 17% of the snaps in his first game with the Raiders, then 34% last week. Zay Jones and Bryan Edwards are not exactly high-confidence perimeter WRs, and D-Jax could supplant either as long as he remains healthy.
Some Groups to Consider
  • At most 1 kicker
  • At most 1 defense
  • Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)
  • If using an RB captain, apply a negative correlation to the opposing defense and kicker (you can see how to do so in my FantasyLabs tutorial video)
  • Pair captain quarterbacks with at least 2 pass catchers
  • At most 2 of Jones, Edwards, and Jackson
  • If using Jacobs at captain, no Drake
  • At most 1 of Brown and Turner

Slate DFS+ Interpretation ::


Kickoff Thursday, Nov 25th 8:20pm Eastern

Bills (
26) at

Saints (
19)

Over/Under 45.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Bills Run D
11th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
28th DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
1st DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
20th DVOA/32nd Yards per pass
Saints Run D
1st DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
9th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
4th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
13th DVOA/2nd Yards per pass

THANKSGIVING SLATE


The Thanksgiving Slate has been combined into One slate writeup.
You will find the same information for all three games in their respective links.
however, if you’re looking for showdown strategy, xandamere provides his thoughts inside each game link

Slate Overview ::

By HILOW >>
  • This slate involves three games that carry a likeliest scenario of being more slugfest than shootout, placing a high emphasis on touchdowns for separator fantasy scores (meaning a highly variant slate – discussed more below).
  • Chicago’s notable injuries include quarterback Justin Fields, running back Damien Williams, wide receiver Allen Robinson II, and defensive tackle Akiem Hicks.
  • Detroit’s notable injuries include quarterback Jared Goff, outside linebacker Trey Flowers, right tackle Matt Nelson, and right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai.
  • Everything the Bears try to do on offense lines up well with weaknesses in the Lions defense.
  • The quarterback situation in Detroit is one to monitor, as it is likely to heavily influence the overall fantasy prospectus from the first game on the slate.
  • Las Vegas is entirely broken, and I was almost hoping the game environment from last week would carry them into some level of production so we could gain solid leverage on this Thanksgiving slate by fading them.
  • CeeDee Lamb is likely to miss with a concussion, while Ezekiel Elliott picked up a knee injury in Week 11 – expect Dallas to place a high emphasis on the run game here.
  • Tremaine Edmunds returned to full practice for the Bills, while Star Lotulelei remains on the league’s COVID list.
  • Alvin Kamara, Ryan Ramczyk, Adam Trautman, Marcus Davenport, and Landon Young failed to practice Monday for the Saints – significant hits to both sides of the ball.
  • The last game of the day involves two teams who suddenly find themselves fighting for the final playoff spot in their respective conferences (both the Bills and Saints currently sit in the seventh spot in the AFC and NFC, respectively).
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How BUFFALO Will Try To Win ::

Middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds returned to a full practice on Monday after missing the previous two games, while run-stopping nose tackle Star Lotulelei remains on the league’s COVID list. We saw the effects of their absence against the Colts, as Jonathan Taylor erupted for five total touchdowns in Week 11. With the assumption of rational coaching in the front of our minds (come on Brian Daboll, don’t do us dirty), the likeliest plan of attack for the Bills is to revert to a more pass-heavy approach against a Saints defense that has allowed only 656 rush yards and the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

I halfway jokingly called the Bills backfield even more convoluted last week, which they ran with in Week 11. All of Devin Singletary, Zach Moss, and Matt Breida saw 29% to 38% of the offensive snaps. Yuck! The matchup, as was previously discussed, doesn’t do this team any favors this week, meaning all three would need pass game involvement and a score or two to matter for us. There’s really not much else to say regarding this backfield, as even on a short slate there just isn’t a ton to love here. The matchup creates a gross 3.965 net-adjusted line yards metric.

With everything we’ve discussed around the Bills in mind, the passing game should be where they make their money this week. Although not atrocious against the pass, the Saints should be considered a pass-funnel defense, and one that has struggled with the deep ball in above-average man coverage alignments (third highest yards allowed per completion at 11.5). This directly benefits both Stefon Diggs (11.9 aDOT) and Emmanuel Sanders (16.0 aDOT), but leaves both with a wider range of outcomes than the field is likely to give credit for. The low overall completion rate against and deep aDOT forced make Cole Beasley less intriguing, and also leaves paths for Gabriel Davis to matter here (low snap rate but 13.3 aDOT). Dawson Knox even carries some level of intrigue with a high snap rate and above-average 7.9 aDOT. All of that said, the range of outcomes for individual pass-catchers remains fairly wide for the Bills, but the field is likely to adopt a high level of certainty.

How New Orleans Will Try To Win ::

We know how New Orleans has tried to win games this season: a slow pace of play, suffocating defense, and heavy rush rates. That said, injuries are likely to have a significant impact on how this team approaches a game against one of the top teams in the league. Alvin Kamara and two starting offensive linemen failed to practice on Monday and should currently be considered on the wrong side of questionable. Another offensive lineman in Terron Armstead missed Week 11 and was a limited participant on Monday. Starting tight end Adam Trautman is likely to miss this week. Finally, edge rusher Marcus Davenport also failed to practice on Monday and should be considered questionable. That’s a lot of starting bodies likely to be out here. The biggest problem is the matchup, as there isn’t a better path to beating the Bills than on the ground, particularly if Star Lotulelei remains out. The Saints are likely to continue to push their run agenda for as long as they can here, particularly considering Trevor Siemian is their starting quarterback. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Taysom Hill involved more in the game plan as one of the team’s top available play-makers. Consider Taysom likely to see snaps at quarterback, running back, and tight end.

Man, this Saints run game is on the injury pain train currently. The three questionable linemen and injury to All-World running back Alvin Kamara significantly dent the overall effectiveness of the offense, as well as the fantasy utility of all players involved. That said, the ground game remains the likeliest plan of attack for the Saints regardless of their offensive injuries, and should be the likeliest path to volume. Assuming Alvin Kamara misses this contest, expect Mark Ingram II to see the lion’s share of snaps and running back opportunities (85% and 72% snap rates over the previous two games). The matchup is less than ideal, resulting in a below-average 4.025 net-adjusted line yards metric. Also, each side appears headed in different directions as far as run game health goes, with the Saints likely to be without at least two (and maybe three) offensive linemen, and the Bills likely to get at least one (and maybe two) of their best run-stoppers back. Expect Ingram to see 20-24 running back opportunities against a defense allowing just 22.1 fantasy points per game to the position (and that includes the five touchdowns they just allowed to Jonathan Taylor). Finally, I would expect heightened involvement from Taysom Hill after being active last week but seeing zero offensive snaps.

Tre’Quan Smith has worked his way back into the featured wide receiver role on this offense, playing 91% and 95% of the offensive snaps over the previous two games. Considering the offensive injuries the Saints have sustained this season, and their top-ranked defense, it makes sense why most of their games are being played close over the second half. With that in mind, Trevor Siemian has attempted 41, 34, and 40 passes over the previous three games against the Falcons, Titans, and Eagles (all losses). That gives us a good idea of what to expect against the Bills, even though the Saints would like to run the football for as long as they can. With Adam Trautman out, expect the primary pass-catchers to be Smith (19 targets over the previous three games), Ingram (20 targets over the previous three games), Marquez Callaway (14 targets over the previous three games), Deonte Harris (17 targets over the previous three games), and a three-way timeshare at tight end. Outside of Ingram, no single player stands out as likely to see overwhelming volume. The matchup through the air is as tough as it gets for the Saints against the team allowing the second-fewest pass yards per game.

Likeliest Game flow ::

We’re likeliest to see either the Bills assert dominance on each side of the ball early, or each team struggle to get much going here. Considering how each team is likeliest to attack, that doesn’t leave many paths for this game environment to open up, creating a scenario where each team is mostly concerned with winning the field position battle and limiting turnovers. It should be almost entirely up to the Bills to push the game environment in either direction, as the injuries and offensive makeup of the Saints are simply unlikely to generate that pressure. The one path to flip that narrative on its head is if the Saints can generate early turnovers or an early defensive touchdown, which not many players will even consider as a valid path for this game. That one simple act would completely change the dynamics of the slate, as it would simultaneously vault the Saints defense into the optimal lineup as well as generate a boost to the expected pass volume for the Bills (which boosts their pass-catchers and creates more opportunities for defensive points to pile up for the Saints). These are the things we want to be thinking through on this slate, as one simple act can completely eliminate a vast majority of the field (because we shouldn’t expect the Saints defense to garner much ownership).


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XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN NOTES

  • Taysom Hill is more viable than usual here (I feel like the Saints have to be getting kind of tired of Siemian).
  • The Bills backfield is a disaster (and I’m now grateful that Moss didn’t miss last week because it would clearly not just have been Singletary’s backfield).
  • Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram have both missed practices this week. Who’s left? I thought Tony Jones would mix in more last week, but he didn’t, which makes me a bit less confident that he would just be the automatic next man up. He probably is, but there’s more uncertainty here, meaning that taking shots on Dwayne Washington, “wide receiver” Ty Montgomery, or even practice squadder Josh Adams (if he’s recalled) makes sense in tournaments. Whoever the guy is would be of tremendous value as they’re all $600 or less. 
  • The Saints wide receiver situation is becoming chaotic with five guys playing meaningful snaps last week. Egads. Smith and Callaway are the “safe” ones (as safe as one can be in this matchup).
  • Adam Trautman is out, so it’s some combination of Juwan Johnson, Nick Vannett, and Garrett Griffin at tight end. Good luck figuring this one out, as I have no idea. It’s a volatile situation and should be treated as such, meaning I’d want to be underweight any highly owned ones and overweight any low-owned guys.
  • The likeliest game flow is for the Saints to attack on the ground for as long as the game remains close, while Buffalo focuses on their passing game to avoid the Saints brutal run defense. As with the LV@DAL game, you can flip the script here and bet on the Bills touchdowns coming on the ground while the Saints score through the air, but to be frank it feels pretty low-odds (especially on the Buffalo side). 
Some Groups to Consider
  • At most 1 kicker
  • At most 1 defense
  • Pair captain pass catchers with their QBs (or consider boosting the QB if using a captain receiver if you don’t want 100% exposure to this pairing – discussed in further detail in the 2020 update to my Advanced Showdowns course)
  • If using an RB captain, apply a negative correlation to the opposing defense and kicker (you can see how to do so in my FantasyLabs tutorial video)
  • Pair captain quarterbacks with at least 2 pass catchers
  • At most 1 Buffalo running back
  • At most 1 Saints tight end
  • At most 1 of Stills, Humphrey, and Harris
  • At most 2 Saints running backs

SLATE DFS+ Interpretation ::


Kickoff Sunday, Nov 28th 1:00pm Eastern

Bucs (
28) at

Colts (
25)

Over/Under 53.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Buccaneers Run D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
1st DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
10th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
18th DVOA/26th Yards per pass
Colts Run D
3rd DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
4th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
14th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
1st DVOA/5th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By HILOW >>
  • Tampa Bay should be able to approach this game as they normally would, while Indianapolis is likely to be forced to the air when they’d prefer to run the football.
  • The Buccaneers are struggling through multiple injuries, as Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, and Ali Marpet have yet to practice this week, while Vita Vea, Devin White, Mike Edwards, and Jason Pierre-Paul have all either gotten in limited sessions or have been downgraded as the week has progressed. Keep an eye on Friday’s injury report.
  • Center/Guard Qeunton Nelson appears headed for an absence for the Colts, as he has yet to practice this week.
  • Overall volume is difficult to project for this game, but Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski are set up to see an increase to individual volume should both Mike Evans and Antonio Brown miss this contest.

How Tampa Bay Will Try To Win ::

Contrary to the pure matchup for the Colts, the matchup for the Buccaneers should be considered entirely a strength on weakness matchup. The Bucs lead the league in overall pass rate, situation-neutral pass rate, pass rate when leading, and pass rate when trailing. The Colts should be considered a pass-funnel defense, ranking second in DVOA against the run and 20th in DVOA against the pass. All of this comes together to create a situation where “how Tampa Bay will try to win” and “how Tampa Bay is likeliest to approach this game” line up well from a predictability standpoint. The biggest influence to “how Tampa Bay will try to win” comes through injury, as Antonio Brown and Mike Evans have yet to practice this week. Brown should be considered doubtful, while Evans is fighting an uphill battle after suffering a back injury late in Tampa Bay’s Week 11 victory on Monday Night Football, giving him one less day to get right.

After coming into the season with legitimate questions surrounding the division of usage in this backfield, Leonard Fournette has emerged as a true lead back, playing between 53% and 82% of the offensive snaps in every game since Week 4. Fournette is an interesting study, however, as his mental lapses and incorrect alignments and routes have left a mark on both head coach Bruce Arians and quarterback Tom Brady. Even late in the season (last week), Brady can be heard directing Fournette on the field, voicing clear frustration towards Fournette and his mental lapses. All of that isn’t meant to dissuade any interest in Fournette, it’s simply to highlight the fact that Fournette’s biggest knock largely hasn’t been remedied. Expect Ronald Jones to act as the pure change of pace back, while Giovani Bernard fills the “obvious pass down” role in standard game environments. The matchup on the ground yields a borderline elite 4.58 net-adjusted line yards metric on the backs of Tampa Bay’s second-ranked standing in the metric.

This is very much still Tom Brady’s team, and when we see this team take on opponents that tilt their opposition to the pass, we can be fairly certain that the offense will flow primarily through the air. The Buccaneers lead the league in pass attempts per game at 43.2, while the Colts face an inflated 59.59% pass rate against this season. Should both Mike Evans and Antonio Brown miss, we’re likely to see a primary pass-catching corps consisting of Chris Godwin, Rob Gronkowski, Tyler Johnson, and recently reactivated Scotty Miller. Expect inflated 11-personnel rates and elevated slot snap rates for Chris Godwin, with Johnson and Miller primarily playing on the perimeter. Indianapolis has forced a moderate 7.9 DADOT (defensive aDOT at time of target) but has faced the fourth most air yards in the league. They also blitz at the fourth lowest rate, instead electing to drop an additional body into a heavy zone coverage scheme. If the Colts fail to direct additional attention to Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski, it could spell trouble over the interior of this defense. Behind those four, expect Breshad Perriman, Cameron Brate, and OJ Howard to filter through in various packages through situational roles. Should Evans make it back for this game, expect Scotty Miller to see the biggest hit to individual snap rate and production, with Evans sliding back into his standard role in a difficult individual matchup on the perimeter.

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

This is one of the more interesting studies this week, as the Colts would much prefer to lean on their ground game but face the number one run defense in the league. As we’ve been reminded as recently as last week, a strength-on-strength matchup carries a wide range of potential outcomes. Frank Reich and the Colts bring a 54% situation-neutral pass rate and 63% pass rate when trailing into a matchup that clearly tilts the opposition to the air, but the Colts have shown a propensity to ride the run game for as long as it is working this season. What we do know is that Tampa Bay will likely look to push the pace while Indianapolis looks to slow this game down (seventh fastest situation-neutral pace of play vs. the slowest in the league).

It’s hard to reach sweeping conclusions regarding the split in running back work for this Colts offense, as the team hasn’t found themselves in largely negative game scripts since the first three weeks of the season (which is incredibly impressive). Along the same line, Jonathan Taylor has seen his snap rates, workload, and pass game involvement steadily increase as the season has moved on, starting the year hovering around 50% of the offensive snaps and working all the way up to almost 85% over the previous two games. There are two possible outcomes here – either the Colts continue to ride Taylor and he sees one of his higher target games or Nyheim Hines is worked into the fold at a greater frequency. I would view the expected workload split as a wide range of outcomes in the same way we view how the matchup interacts with expected efficiency.

Through both injury and ineffective play, the pass-catching corps has been one of the most predictable facets of this offense from an expected snap rate perspective (but that’s about where the predictability ends). The Colts operate from league-average 21-personnel rates and above-average 11-personnel rates, meaning we rarely see this offense utilizing two running backs on the field at the same time. The trio of Jack Doyle, Mo Alie-Cox, and Kylen Granson typically have game flow to thank for their split in usage, with Doyle and Cox the most well-rounded tight ends of the bunch (which typically means they see the most snaps) and Granson primarily a “pass-catching tight end.” Michael Pittman, Jr. and Zach Pascal are the “starting” wide receivers, each typically playing 80%+ of the offensive snaps, while Ashton Dulin and TY Hilton split the “WR3” role. The biggest thing we need to understand about this offense is that Reich typically mixes and matches offensive personnel within his alignments, which creates interesting alignment percentages amongst the pass-catchers. So while Pittman and Pascal are considered the “starting wide receivers,” they play heavy slot snaps and are moved all around the formation. This makes projecting individual matchups extremely difficult. Consider the fantasy prospectus of all pass-catchers another wide range of outcomes ordeal.

Likeliest Game flow ::

We have an interesting case in this one where the likeliest game flow is likely to be driven by the Buccaneers but the game environment is likely to be driven by the Colts. This is the case due to the dynamics of the matchup, how these teams like to operate, and the strength on strength matchup for the Colts. Because that is the case, the actual game flow holds an extremely wide range of outcomes, which makes it difficult to project for fantasy purposes. As in, we can’t confidently project overall team volume as much as we’d normally like here, but individual volume should be rather bankable within those constraints due to the makeup of the Colts offense and injuries to the Buccaneers. From a macro perspective, we can be fairly certain the Bucs will lean on their pass game, while the Colts are largely dependent on game flow to decide how their end-of-game volume numbers shake out.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::


Kickoff Sunday, Nov 28th 1:00pm Eastern

Jets (
20.75) at

Texans (
23.75)

Over/Under 44.5

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Key Matchups
Jets Run D
26th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
32nd DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
31st DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass
Texans Run D
24th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
13th DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
19th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
26th DVOA/20th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Mike White popped for COVID early in the week and Joe Flacco was deemed a close contact, leaving a now-healthy Zach Wilson as the starter this week, possibly backed up by Josh Johnson, pending Flacco’s ability to make it off the league’s COVID list prior to the game.
  • It isn’t often we see two teams that rank in the bottom five in both yards allowed per carry and yards allowed per pass, but that is exactly what we get here.
  • Michael Carter will miss the next 2-3 weeks with a sprained ankle, opening the door for Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson to handle backfield reps against the Texans.
  • Corey Davis got in a limited session on Wednesday before being downgraded to DNP on Thursday.
  • Both teams rank bottom ten in pass rate faced this season.
  • Both teams rank in the bottom ten in situation-neutral pace of play but top ten in second half pace of play (largely driven by game flow).

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The carousel of quarterbacks continues this week for the Jets as Zach Wilson makes his return to the lineup. The biggest thing we need to understand with this offense is that they attempt to be a balanced unit if allowed the opportunity to do so (middle of the pack 56% situation-neutral pass rate over the first five weeks of the season with a healthy Zach Wilson at quarterback). So, while their overall pass rates lead the league, it has largely been a function of routine negative game scripts. Against the fellow 2-8 Texans, it is likeliest the Jets approach the game plan with a balanced approach in mind, not reverting to excessive pass volume unless forced to do so. With all of that in mind, Zach Wilson attempted between 32 and 38 passes in each of his five fully healthy games to start the year, failing to crack 300 pass yards in every game. Big picture, the Jets have a ton of moving parts for this game, as the team gets Zach Wilson back, loses Michael Carter to a sprained ankle, and have seen “alpha” wide receiver Corey Davis downgraded as the week has progressed due to an injury suffered during individual drills on Wednesday. Through injury and ineffective play, the Jets have seen their 11-personnel usage rates increase through the latter portion of the season (this will be important when we discuss the pass game below).

As previously mentioned, Michael Carter will miss this contest due to an ankle sprain sustained in the team’s Week 11 game, leaving Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman to handle the backfield. I’d expect Johnson to lead the team in snap rate and opportunities this week, likely thrust into a 60-65% opportunity share. La’Mical Perine should find himself active once more but I wouldn’t expect anything more than emergency status as a player that has seemingly fallen out of favor with this coaching staff. The matchup yields a “high for the Jets” 4.2 net-adjusted line yards metric against an opponent that can be beaten on the ground. Houston has allowed 25.9 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, and the Jets should remain balanced for as long as this game remains close, giving increased relevance to a backfield not typically thought to carry fantasy utility.

Similar to the quarterback position, there are a lot of moving parts with respect to expected snap rates, utilization, and alignments for this pass-catching corps. Ryan Griffin maintains his role as lead tight end, which hasn’t led to more than 77% of the offensive snaps since Week 5 with Tyler Kroft likely done for the year with a lung laceration (uhh, what?). Corey Davis, the typical lead wide receiver on this offense, was downgraded on Thursday to DNP from a limited showing on Wednesday, apparently for an injury sustained during individual drills. We’ll need more clarity on Friday, but consider him legitimately questionable due to the in-week groin injury. Should Davis miss, we’re likely to see the Elijah Moore coming out party continue this week, as he would be the player likeliest to see a further increase to snap rate and usage. The biggest positive to come from camp Moore last week was his utilization. After playing from the slot for a majority of his snaps to start his young career, we saw the Jets move him all over the formation in Week 11, increasing his perimeter snap rate along the way. Jamison Crowder plays almost primarily from the slot, meaning perimeter snaps for Elijah Moore is a substantial boost to his fantasy prospectus. Denzel Mims remains on the league’s COVID list and is questionable to make it back in time for Week 12’s contest, meaning we’re likely to see Keelan Cole and Jeff Smith mix in for the remainder of the perimeter wide receiver snaps should both Corey Davis and Mims miss here.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The Texans, man. You’d be hard pressed to find an organization that is run worse than the Texans across all major professional sports. The Texans spent significant monies this offseason bringing in three running backs in Mark Ingram II, Phillip Lindsay, and Rex Burkhead to join David Johnson (that’s another story altogether, as he came over in the fabled DeAndre Hopkins deal). Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay are no longer with the team, leaving Rex Burkhead as the primary early-down grinder (which is laughable in and of itself, as Burkhead has largely been utilized as a pass game piece throughout his career), and David Johnson as the primary third-down and passing down “specialist.” Woof. Similar to the Jets, Houston would prefer to run the football for as long as they are allowed to (56% situation-neutral pass rate on the season), showing an increased propensity to turn to the air as the season has progressed (up to a 69% pass rate when trailing this season). Tyrod Taylor, Rex Burkhead, David Johnson, Chris Conley, Chris Moore, and Danny Amendola are expected to be large contributing members of this offense. Lolz.

As previously discussed, we should expect Rex Burkhead to operate as the primary early-down grinder while David Johnson acts at the change of pace and primary pass-down back. What a world to be alive in. The matchup on the ground yields a laughable 3.79 net-adjusted line yards metric largely due to Houston’s run-blocking ineptitude. Expect Johnson to lead the backfield in snap rate but Burkhead to lead the backfield in rush attempts in what shapes up to a low floor, low ceiling backfield overall. Finally, Tyrod Taylor has simply taken over the rushing upside near the goal line, plunging for two additional scores last week.

Fresh off an upset victory over the injury-riddled Titans, the Tyrod Taylor-led Texans come into Week 12 with pass attempts of 24, 33, and 43 in Taylor’s three fully healthy games. Talk about a wide range of outcomes, eh? That simply goes to emphasize the wide range of outcomes from each of these teams this week, as far as volume is concerned. What we know is this: Brandin Cooks is the only pass-catcher in a near every-down role, with Nico Collins, Chris Conley, Chris Moore, Danny Amendola, and a tight end room consisting of Pharoah Brown, Jordan Akins, Antony Auclair, and Brevin Jordan all splitting snaps and work. As such, no single pass-catcher can be considered to carry any semblance of floor. Cooks has six games of seven or fewer targets, and four games of 11 or more – wide range of outcomes alert.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

What happens when you pit two stoppable forces against two movable objects? Who knows? And that’s exactly what we have with this game. Enter the “wide range of outcomes” talk. What we do know is each of these offenses should largely be considered conservative units, meaning it would likely require one jumping out to a two-score lead to force the other into increased aggression. This also means that individual play-maker volume is extremely hard to predict, with Elijah Moore and Brandin Cooks the likeliest to carry at least some semblance of locked-in volume. The likeliest scenario yields a game environment where each team adopts a conservative approach, similar to what we saw out of the Texans/Dolphins game a few weeks back. When trying to visualize alternate game flows, it becomes rather difficult to picture what outside force would alter this approach from either team. Just a whole bunch of “meh” here.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Tyrod Taylor:

  • Tyrod’s 3.5 games: 291:2, 4:40 // 125:1, 1:25:1 // 240:0:3, 3:23 // 107:0, 6:28:2
  • NYJ allowed 2 pass TDs in the first 4 games
  • NYJ have allowed 14 pass TDs in the last 6 games
  • NYJ have fallen to last in def pass DVOA
  • 259 pass yds is the fewest yds allowed by NYJ since W3
  • QB rushing vs NYJ: Darnold (TD) // Teddy (24) // Wentz (13) // Allen (3)

HOU WRs:

  • Cooks in 5.5 games with Mills: 4:28:1 // 9:112 // 5:47 // 3:23 // 9:89 // 5:21 // 6:83:1
  • Cooks in 3.5 games with Taylor: 5:132 // 5:50 // 6:56 // 2:18
  • HOU WR tg with all of Amendola, Collins, Cooks playing last month: Cooks (7, 6, 13, 3) // Collins (5, 4, 3, 2) // Amendola (5, 5, 7, 1) // Conley (0, 2, 3, 5)
  • WRs with 60+ rec yds vs NYJ: Moore (80), Patrick (98), Rogers (63), Bourne (68), Boyd (69), Higgins (97), Pittman (64), Diggs (162), Davis (105), Hollins (72), Waddle (65)
  • Moore & Conley both had 60+ yds vs NE, but Cooks is the only other HOU WR to have 60+ yds in a game this year (5 times)

HOU RBs:

  • NYJ have allowed 38.7 DK pts/g to RBs; next closest is 31.2 DK pts/g
  • Rush att leader since trading Ingram: Phillips (5) // Lindsay (8) // Burkhead (18)
  • HOU ran the ball with their RBs 32 times in their first win since W1 vs TEN
  • Ingram’s 14.5 DK pts in W1 on 26 rush att is the highest score from a HOU RB this year

Zach Wilson:

  • HOU ranks 6th in def pass DVOA
  • Just over 19 DK pts is Wilson’s current high, with 4 TDs to 9 INT on season
  • HOU has 13 INT, with 6 over the last two games vs Brissett & Tanny

NYJ WRs:

  • Tg since Crowder returned: Davis (7, 7, 6, -, -, 7, 7) // Moore (-, 2, 6, 6, 8, 6, 11) // Crowder (9, 6, 6, 9, 7, 6, 7)
  • Moore had totaled 79 yds before Wilson’s injury
  • Moore since: 6:67 // 7:84:2 // 3:44:1 // 8:141:1
  • Davis outproduced Moore in all but one game with Zach Wilson (NE)
  • WRs with 70+ yds vs HOU: Chark (86:1), MJJ (77:1) // Moore (126) // Diggs (114), Sanders (74) // Hilton (80) // Kupp (115:1), Van (88) // Waddle (83) // Westbrook (107)
  • HOU has allowed five 20+ DK pt scores to WRs
  • HOU has allowed the 3rd highest success rate to WRs

NYJ RBs:

  • 16 RBs in ten games have topped 50 total yds vs HOU
  • Carter had double-digit rush att in 7/10 games: 4, 11, 9, 13, 10, 11, 15, 13, 16, 9
  • Ty Johnson & Tevin Coleman are the only other RBs with touches this season and should be expected to get the touches that Carter’s injury vacates
  • Coleman has yet to top 33 yds all season
  • Johnson’s career games with 10+ rush att: 22:104:1 // 11:45 // 12:50
  • Johnson’s last 5 receiving: 65 // 71:1 // 40:1 // 36 // 8
  • HOU has allowed the 8th lowest success rate on RB tg

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 28th 1:00pm Eastern

Eagles (
24.5) at

Giants (
20.5)

Over/Under 45.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
16th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
29th DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
21st DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
31st DVOA/31st Yards per pass
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
17th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
15th DVOA/7th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • The Giants put Jason Garrett out to pasture 
  • Saquon Barkley’s playing time is likely to increase 
  • The Eagles have held Jalen Hurts under 25 attempts the past four weeks 
  • Miles Sanders has sneaky upside 

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles come into this game riding a two-game winning streak against the Broncos and Saints. Still sitting at 5-6, this Eagles team feels a year or two away from being good. Nick Sirianni has his offense coming out fast (3rd in situational neutral pace) but is willing to slow way down (22nd in pace when ahead) if protecting a lead. His approach has caused Eagles games to have a wide variance in outcomes. Games that stay close play out like track meets (especially against other fast-paced teams), and games where the Eagles take a lead grind to a halt (especially against other slow-paced teams).

This week they draw a Giants squad that has been better against the pass than most people realize (11th in DVOA) while getting smashed on the ground (30th in DVOA). The Giants set up as a run funnel defense which lines up perfectly for the Eagles, who decided to change their offensive philosophy in Week 8. Since then, they’ve limited Jalen Hurts passing attempts to 14/17/23/24. Those games have resulted in three comfortable wins and one close loss, so there is no reason to think the Eagles are going to depart from their newfound formula. Expect the Eagles to come out using an up-tempo running game and to stick with the run while declining in pace as they build a lead.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Oh, Jason Garrett. How do you keep getting work? Let’s hope this firing is your last, and you ride off into the sunset, taking your place among a pack of clowns (John Fox/Jeff Fisher/Adam Gase/Jason Garrett) that have made millions of dollars being worse at calling a football game than a decent 12-year-old Madden player. Is the joke on them or us? Dez Bryant delivered this gem after finding out Garrett had been fired: “Kadarius Toney, you will get to experience the love and joy for football throughout your career.”

The Giants have disappointed relative to their talent (most Garrett-led teams do) and have posted a 3-7 record. Joe Judge hasn’t been publicly named play-caller, and the best information to work with is Judge saying that play calling will be a collaborative in-house effort. What does that mean exactly? No one knows, but it’s provocative. Will the Giants have a war council where three guys vote on the play? Will they appoint a chairman of the play calling committee and assign subcommittees to conduct studies on offense and defense? Will we finally smell what Freddie Kitchens (rumored to be involved) is cooking? It’s hard to know, but the Giants have at least been playing fast (10th in situational neutral pace), and since it’s hard to change your entire offense midweek, their pace will likely stay in a similar range. The Eagles are slightly below average against the run and pass (18th/20th in DVOA). With no clear path of least resistance and no idea who will be calling the plays, figuring out exactly what this offense will look like requires a ton of guesswork. Expect the Giants to come out playing quickly to show aggression and convince their fan base they still have fight left in them.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a middling 45.5 total that feels like a hedge based on not knowing how the Giants will play offensively. The one thing that is certain is that the Eagles are the better side of the ball and are likely to control this game. In games the Eagles control, we can expect Hurts to stay under 25 attempts and the pace of play to slow down in the second half. The most likely game flow has the Eagles pulling ahead on the ground with time-crunching drives. No one really knows how the Giants will respond. There is a wide range of outcomes based on who ends up calling the plays.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::


Kickoff Sunday, Nov 28th 1:00pm Eastern

Panthers (
21) at

Dolphins (
20)

Over/Under 41.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Panthers Run D
17th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
15th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
22nd DVOA/17th Yards per pass
Dolphins Run D
13th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
9th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
32nd DVOA/29th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • Cam Newton is underpriced for his rushing upside.
  • Christian McCaffery played 90% of snaps last week and is back to being king of the ring.
  • Myles Gaskin is underpriced for his role and matchup.
  • The Dolphins D could rack up sacks.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

The up and down Panthers come into Week 12 with a 5-6 record, having just brought back their former franchise QB, Cam Newton. Matt Rhule pump-faked the fantasy community by acting as if he wasn’t going to play Cam exclusively at QB before giving him 100% of the snaps. This was likely Rhule’s way of feeling like he gained a “competitive advantage” by keeping the Football Team guessing about which similar style running QB they were going to face. I digress. With Cam returning midseason, and the reintroduction of Christian McCaffrey, the Panthers offense feels more like they are in Week 2 than Week 12.

The Panthers have played on the slower side (20th in situation neutral pace), and while it feels likely they stick with this approach, things could change quickly with Cam getting more comfortable under center. The Dolphins have been easier to pass on (22nd in DOVA) than run on (13th in DVOA), but that difference shouldn’t tilt the Panthers away from trying to figure out their new-look offense. Expect Rhule to try to use Cam’s legs, while incorporating CMC as much as possible without overworking him into another injury. The Panthers are going to try and figure out what works, rather than keep playing in a way they’ve established throughout the season.

How miami Will Try To Win ::

The Dolphins are riding high coming in on a three-game win streak! Unfortunately, they are still only 4-7, and two of those three wins came against the Texans/Jets, two teams that can do wonders for any team’s confidence (just ask the Panthers). Still, the fish must feel like they’ve turned a corner, with their franchise QB back under center and finally experiencing success after an ugly 1-7 start.

Brain Flores has looked lost at times this year, but he’s been coming out aggressively as the Dolphins play fast out of the gate (2nd in situational neutral pace in the 1st half), before slowing down (21st in situational neutral pace in the second half) later in the game. The Panthers defense is strong against the pass (5th in DVOA), and weak against the run (20th in DVOA), creating one of the clearer run funnel defenses in the league. Flores should be able to figure out the best way to win is on the ground. Flores should force the Panthers to prove they can stop the run before attacking them through the air. Expect the Dolphins to come in with an up-tempo run-heavy game plan, hoping to pull ahead before slowing things down in the second half.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a tiny 42-point total and it’s difficult to project either team to put up a lot of passing yards. That leaves us with two teams whose best way to move the ball will be with time-crunching drives, resulting in fewer plays and points for both sides. The game is expected to be competitive, with under a three-point spread, but the most likely outcome is a grind-it-out affair. The Panthers are the better side, but there are no assurances that they confidently take the lead and cruise to victory. The most likely game flow has this one staying within a score for most of the game, with the Panthers being able to pull away late. 


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Tua Tagovailoa:

  • CAR has held seven QBs under 200 pass yds, and the others have thrown for 258, 373, 206
  • CAR has allowed the 5th fewest QB DK pts/g (16.8)
  • Both of Tua’s games over 20 DK pts (25.4, 28.5) came against defenses allowing 19.4 & 20.9 QB DK pts/g and ranked 29th & 31st in def pass DVOA

MIA WRs:

  • CAR has allowed the 5th fewest WR DK pts/g
  • Targets with Tua vs Brissett: Waddle (6, 13, 8, 12, 9 /// 8, 13, 4, 6, 10)
  • Tua games: Waddle (4:61:1 // 10:70:2 // 7:83 // 4:29 // 8:65)
  • Brissett games: Waddle (6:48 // 12:58 // 3:33 // 2:31 // 8:83)
  • McLaurin was the first WR since 2020 to reach 100 yds vs CAR without 7+ rec to get there (Evans, Keenan, Ridley, Julio, Tyreek, Cooks, Thielen)
  • CAR’s only 20+ pt WRs allowed in 2021: Davis (5:97:2) // Cooks (9:112) // Thielen (11:126:1) // McLaurin (5:103:1)

Mike Gesicki:

  • Gesicki tg with Tua (full): 2, 9, 8, 4, 6
  • Gesicki tg without Parker: 7, 9, 8, 8, 7, 6
  • Gesicki has 40+ yds in 9/11 games (other two he combined for 0 yds)
  • Gesicki has 80+ yds in three games
  • Notable TEs vs CAR: Schultz (6:58:1) // Goedert (2:28) // Conklin (3:71) // Engram (6:44) // Pitts (2:13) // Henry (2:19:1) // Ertz (4:46)

Myles Gaskin:

  • Only RBs with 60+ rush yds vs CAR: Zeke (143:1), Pollard (67) // Cook (140:1) // Stevenson (62) // Gibson (95)
  • Gaskin has just 3 games of 60+ rush yds (65, 67, 89)
  • CAR has allowed just 5 RB rush TDs
  • Gaskin has just one rush TD (4 rec TDs)
  • CAR has allowed the lowest success rate & yds/att on RB targets
  • CPatt (37:1) & Stevenson (44) are the only RBs with 30+ rec yds vs CAR

Cam Newton:

  • QB rushing vs MIA: Allen (35, 55:1) // Tyrod (23) // Lamar (39)
  • Cam rushed for 30+ yds in 8 games in 2020 (38, 46, 47, 48, 54, 75, 76, 79) and 12 rush TDs
  • Cam rushing in 2021: 3:14:1 // 10:46:1
  • Cam scored 26 DK pts in his first start of the year
  • MIA has allowed the 7th most QB DK pts/g
  • Allen (3) & Brady (5) are the only QBs with more than 2 TDs vs MIA

CAR WRs:

  • Top performing WR vs MIA: Agholor (5:72:1) // Diggs (4:60:1) // Renfrow (5:77:1) // Pittman (6:59) // Brown (7:124:2), Evans (6:113:2) // MJJ (7:100:1) // Gage (4:67:1) // Beasley (10:110) // Cooks (6:56) // Bateman (6:80) // Moore (8:141:1)
  • Moore has between 7-13 tg in every game
  • Moore’s first four games (DK pts): 15.4 // 21.9 // 23.5 // 34.9
  • Moore’s last five games (DK pts): 8.8 // 11.9 // 13.3 // 9.9 // 7.6 // 6.4 // 16
  • 20+ pt DK scores with Cam in NE last year: Edelman (28.9) // Meyers (31.9, 21.1) // Byrd (29.3)

Christian McCaffrey:

  • MIA has allowed 30+ rec yds to 6 RBs
  • MIA has allowed 60+ rush yds to 8 RBs (3 of 100+)
  • MIA allowed 9 RB TDs in first seven weeks, but has allowed none over the last four (those opponents though: BUF, HOU, BAL, NYJ)
  • CMC has just 2 TDs in his 5 full games in ‘21
  • CMC scored 25 TDs in his 19 games in ‘19 & ‘20
  • CMC rushing in 2021: 98 // 72:1 // 52 // 95 // 59
  • CMC receiving in 2021: 89 // 65 // 54 // 66 // 60
  • Since Week 9 of 2018, CMC has scored under 24 DK pts just six times in 33 full games
  • Two of those six came in W17 blowouts vs NOR in which multiple starters either didn’t play or finish game
  • One was W9 vs NE in his first game back from a 6-week absence (lighter workload)
  • CMC has 30+ pts in 16 of those 33 games and 35+ in 8 of them

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 28th 1:00pm Eastern

Titans (
17.75) at

Patriots (
25.25)

Over/Under 43.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Titans Run D
14th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
9th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
11th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Patriots Run D
7th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
17th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
3rd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
21st DVOA/10th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • The Titans are adjusting to life without Derrick Henry.
  • Both backfields are timeshares.
  • The Patriots offense is game plan dependent.
  • The best DFS play in this game might be a defense.

How tennessee Will Try To Win ::

The Titans come into this game sporting an 8-3 record, tops in the AFC. Unfortunately, they lost their best player (Derrick Henry) and are struggling to figure out their offensive identity without being able to hand Henry the ball 30 times a game. The Titans play slow (23rd in situational neutral pace) and grind to a halt (29th in pace) when winning. They speed things up (11th in pace) if they are behind, which makes the speed of Titans games very game flow dependent. They would prefer to win by playing slow and falling on the ball but will pick up their tempo to catch up if necessary. Mike Vrabel has been a “we do our thing” coach, rather than the type of coach who adapts his offense to fit an opponent. Vrabel has been able to get away with his approach because “his thing” has been handing the ball to the man child called Derrick Henry. The Titans are finding that playing 90s football is a lot harder without Henry and currently rock one of the lowest team totals (19) you’ll ever see from a contender, in clear first place in their conference. The Patriots defense has been strong against both the run and the pass (2nd in overall DVOA) and there is nothing to suggest the Titans will deviate from their normal approach. Expect a heavy dose of trying to establish the run before eventually cutting bait and chasing points in the second half. 

How new england Will Try To Win ::

The Patriots coaching staff deserves a lot of credit for turning their season around. After starting the year 1-3 and looking like they were about to post a second straight disappointing year without Tom Brady, the Pats roared back to life going 6-1 in their last seven games, as their collection of off-season talent started to come together around their rookie QB. The Pats lone loss in their last seven games came in OT against the Cowboys. This Patriots team looks legitimately good as they are rounding into form at the right time. This game has playoff implications as the Patriots are only half a game back from the Titans for the best record in the AFC.

Bill Belichick has long been one of the more adaptable coaches in the NFL and is willing to relentlessly go after the relative weakness of a defense.  The Titans are middling against the pass (13th in DVOA) and against the run (18th in DVOA) which doesn’t present a clear path of least resistance. Belichick is smart enough to know that this game profiles as one that he can win mostly on defense, while allowing his offense to run the ball, and do just enough through the air. Expect the Patriots to come in pounding the rock and allowing their defense to control the game as they pull away into the 4th quarter.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a lowish 44.5-point total, but that is largely because the Titans offense isn’t expected to do much without King Henry against a strong Patriots defense. The Titans 19-point team total drags down the game environment since the Pats will likely be content to win this game mostly on the defensive side of the ball. The most likely game flow has the Titans struggling to generate offense, as the Patriots grind them down with their running game, mixing in just enough passing to build a lead.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Overview:

  • NE has won 5 straight to vault into AFC East’s 1st place at 7-4
  • TEN just lost to HOU, but was coming off stretch of beating BUF, KC, IND, LAR, NOR

Ryan Tannehill:

  • Since 2020, the game scores of his 10 games of 20+ DK pts read: 46-25, 42-36, 35-41, 42-16, 41-38, 33-30, 30-24, 25-16, 27-3, 34-31
  • That’s 8/10 games in which TEN scored 30+ pts, and 6/10 games in which the combined total finished over 60
  • TEN offensive pts with Henry: 13 // 33 // 25 // 24 // 30 // 34 // 27 // 34
  • TEN offensive pts without Henry: 21 // 23 // 13
  • NE pts allowed: 17 // 6 // 28 // 19 // 22 // 35 // 13 // 24 // 6 // 7 // 0
  • Tannehill has passed for 300 yds in just 5 of his 28 starts since 2020
  • Last week was Tanny’s first 300-yd game since W2, and TEN trailed the whole way while Tanny threw 4 INT
  • NE has allowed just two 300-yd passers
  • Mills & Dak vs NE: 312:3 & 445:3:1
  • Other 9 QBs vs NE: averages of 196 yds, 0.78 TDs, 1.7 INT
  • Tanny’s last three without Henry: 143:1:1, rush TD // 213:1, rush TD // 323:1:4

TEN WRs:

  • Seven WRs have 70+ yds vs NE: Parker (81) // Berrios (73) // Evans (75) // Moore (109:1), Conley (84:1) // Lamb (149:2) // Keenan (77:1)
  • NE has allowed the lowest success rate to WRs
  • TEN WRs with 70+ yds: Brown (91, 133:1, 155:1) // Julio (128) // Westbrook (107) // Johnson (100)
  • Julio & Johnson are on IR, while Brown is questionable
  • Dez Fitzpatrick saw 6 tg stepping in for Johnson vs HOU, while Westbrook-Ikinhe had his best game of the year (7:107)
  • Just 2 WRs have finished with 20+ DK pts vs NE: Chris Moore (5:109:1) // Lamb (9:149:2)

TEN RBs:

  • With Peterson not currently on the roster, Foreman & Hilliard are expected to lead the backfield
  • Hilliard caught 8 passes in his first TEN game
  • 8 RBs have finished with 40+ rec yds vs NE
  • NE has allowed the 2nd most RB rec yds
  • NE has allowed a league-low 3 RB TDs

Mac Jones:

  • TEN ranks 13th in def pass DVOA and has 9 INT
  • Jones had 6 INT in a 4-g stretch, but has just 2 over the last five games
  • 6 QBs have passed for 290+ yds vs TEN
  • Jones Pass att in Ws: 30 // 30 // 36 // 35 // 18 // 23 // 26
  • Jones Pass att in Ls: 39 // 51 // 40 // 21
  • Jones has just one game of 20+ DK pts, his only 300 yd game (vs NYJ)

NE WRs:

  • Only ATL allowed more WR DK pts than TEN in 2020
  • TEN has allowed the most WR DK pts in 2021
  • Nine WRs vs TEN in 2021 have scored 20+ DK pts: Hopkins (26.3), Kirk (24) // Lockett (34.8), Swain (21) // Davis (24.1) // Diggs (23.9), Beasley (21.8) // Pittman (30.6) // Kupp (20.5)
  • TEN has allowed 14 WR TDs
  • Targets: Meyers (82) // Agholor (50) // Bourne (47)
  • 70+ yd games: Meyers (2) // Agholor (1) // Bourne (3)
  • 20+ DK pt games: Meyers (0) // Agholor (0) // Bourne (2)
  • High DK score: Meyers (18.4) // Agholor (18.2) // Bourne (24.1)

Hunter Henry:

  • Henry has scored 7 TDs in the last 8 games
  • Henry’s yds in those games: 32 // 75 // 25 // 23 // 33 // 19 // 37 // 25
  • In those 8 games, just three have been scores over 10.5 DK pts (13.2, 19.5, 19.7)
  • Henry has scored under 10 DK pts six times
  • Best TEs vs TEN: Arnold (6:65) // Knox (3:25) // Kelce (7:65) // Higbee (5:51) // Trautman (5:32)
  • TEN has allowed the 2nd lowest success rate & lowest yds/att to TEs
  • TEN has allowed just three TE TDs (Hollister, Sweeney, Doyle)

NE RBs:

  • Harris with 15+ rush att in career: 17:100 // 16:102:1 // 22:121 // 16:80 // 23:100 // 16:62:1 // 18:101:1 // 14:106:2 // 23:80:1 // 15:30:1
  • Harris only got 10 att last week after missing W10, while Stevenson got 12
  • Stevenson’s last three: 10:62, 2:44 // 20:100:2, 4:14 // 12:69, 1:6
  • Bolden receiving yds without James White: 23 // 51 // 6 // 3 // 79:1 // 0 // 27 // 38 // 15
  • NE RB TDs by week: 0 // 2 // 0 // 0 // 1 // 2 // 5 // 1 // 1 // 2 // 0
  • RB total yds vs TEN: Edmonds (106), Conner (53) // Carson (31) // Taylor (72), Hines (79) // Carter (34), Coleman (31) // Robinson (147) // Singletary (43), Moss (39) // Williams (50) // Taylor (122) // Hendy (58) // Ingram (108) // Burkhead (40)
  • TEN has allowed the 6th lowest success rate on RB tg
  • Harris has just two games of 20+ DK pts (20.8, 28.3), scoring 3 TDs
  • In the 28.3 score, NE scored 54 points
  • Stevenson’s one game of 20+ DK pts (30.4) came without Harris in a game NE scored 45 and he scored twice
  • Bolden has one game over 11 DK pts (19.9), and all his pts came through the air

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 28th 1:00pm Eastern

Falcons (
23.75) at

Jaguars (
22.25)

Over/Under 46.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Falcons Run D
30th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
18th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
26th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
30th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass
Jaguars Run D
21st DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
31st DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
32nd DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
25th DVOA/16th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • You may want to play some players from this game in fantasy, but it is highly recommended that you do not view the game with your eyes.
  • The offenses in this game rank 25th and 31st in DVOA, while the defenses rank 29th and 30th.
  • Both teams rank top-10 in situation-neutral pass rate and play at a faster than league average pace.
  • There appear to be some opportunities to “buy low” on some pieces in this game. 

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

Atlanta has played four games since Calvin Ridley left the team. In those four games, they have faced four of the top six defenses in the league by DVOA. You never want to lose a star player, but the timing could not have been worse for a team trying desperately to hang around the NFC playoff race. Atlanta has played three games this year against bottom-12 defenses (Miami, NY Jets, and Washington), and in those three games, they scored an average of 29 points. Jacksonville ranks 29th in defensive DVOA. 

How Atlanta tries to win should be pretty straightforward as their running game is very poor (32nd out of 32 teams in DVOA) and Jacksonville’s defense presents “pass funnel” tendencies as they are top-5 against the run and 31st against the pass. Atlanta’s choices are to use their weakness against their opponent’s strength or use their strength against their opponent’s weakness. As explored above, Atlanta has actually been pretty good offensively against lower-level competition. Matt Ryan took a lot of heat after the Falcons were terrible in prime time against the Patriots in Week 11, but that was a tough matchup on a short week and without their top playmaker in Cordarrelle Patterson. Ryan has quietly been very good this year, ranking as PFF’s 8th graded passer on the season. Atlanta should lean on their passing game in this matchup, and they are likely to have much greater success than the field will likely anticipate, especially if Patterson is active. 

How jacksnoville Will Try To Win ::

Jacksonville surprisingly throws at the 9th highest rate in the league and plays at the fastest pace (seconds per snap). Those numbers are surprising for a 2-8 team that has struggled to score points throughout the year and has faced a brutal schedule of defenses this year. This week against Atlanta is by far the best matchup the Jaguars offense has seen all season. Jamal Agnew had provided a spark for the offense in recent weeks but was lost for the season last week, leaving Jacksonville even thinner in their skill positions. Laviska Shenault feels like the player best suited to take on heavier volume, especially for a team like Jacksonville at this point in the season, but it’s probably just as likely that Urban Meyer gives Tavon Austin 12 touches.

Jacksonville will likely have an aggressive, but balanced, approach to the start of this game. A healthy dose of James Robinson is likely in line and he will be used in both the run and pass game against a team that was run through, over, and around by the Patriots and Cowboys running backs over the last couple of weeks. The Jaguars haven’t shown the ability to *effectively* attack through the air on a consistent basis, but it would make sense for them to give Trevor Lawrence a chance to air it out in his first really good matchup he’s seen this year.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Sam Darnold, Zach Wilson, and Daniel Jones are the only quarterbacks whose teams have failed to score 25 points against the Falcons this year. You could argue that Lawrence is similar to that group at this point, but considering the Jaguars have not scored over 23 points in a game this season it is important to consider the context in which they could put up an outlier game. This is certainly not a matchup of offensive juggernauts, but it is a matchup of the league’s fastest-paced offense against a team that will likely lean extremely pass-heavy. Those factors combine to give a high likelihood of a game with a lot of plays. These offenses are not very efficient so that could be a lot of empty plays, but the secondaries of these teams are bad enough that things could quickly take off. Rookie quarterbacks often come on strong to end the season and this would seem to be a good spot for Lawrence to kick things into gear. A lot of plays, teams with nothing to lose, poor secondaries, and aggressive play-calling is a good recipe for a productive fantasy environment.

Side note: I also think we are at the point in the season where it is important to consider macro trends and team mindsets in our evaluations. The Falcons have been embarrassed in back-to-back weeks, first against “America’s Team” and then on national TV against the Patriots. The playoffs are fading fast for Atlanta and defensive injuries tend to add up over the course of a season, resulting in higher chances of breakdowns, with an already poor group losing some of the little talent they had to begin with. Again, there is nothing concrete here, but there is definitely a lot of fragility from the Vegas total here, where this game could unexpectedly go far over its total.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Trevor Lawrence:

  • Lawrence has one game of 20+ DK pts since his 25 in a W1 blowout loss
  • Lawrence has under 220 yds in 6/10 games
  • ATL has only held 3/10 QBs under 220 yds

JAC WRs:

  • Evans, McLaurin, Lamb are the only WRs with 20+ DK pts vs ATL, and all three scored 2 TDs
  • Smith, Evans, McLaurin, Waddle, Lamb are the only WRs with 70+ rec yds vs ATL
  • MJJ yds since Chark injury: 24 // 25 // 100 // 35 // 21 // 35 // 52
  • Laviska has one game over 13 DK pts (17), and 7/10 games under 10 DK pts

Dan Arnold:

  • Arnold had 60+ yds in 4/5 games before last week’s goose egg
  • TEs vs ATL: Ertz (34), Goedert (42:1) // Gronk (39:2) // Engram (21) // RSJ (19) // Gesicki (85:1) // Tremble (18) // Trautman (47) // Schultz (14) // Henry (25)
  • Arnold JAC tg: 2, 8, 5, 10, 7, 8, 0

James Robinson:

  • Robinson’s rush att in full games: 5 // 11 // 15 // 18 // 18 // 17 // 12 // 12
  • Robinson’s playing through injury the last couple weeks has likely limited his touches vs tough run defenses of IND & SF
  • Robinson total touches:yds in full games: 11:54 // 14:64 // 21:134 // 20:76 // 19:147 // 21:101 // 17:84:1 // 15:38:1
  • Sanders (74) & Hubbard (82) are the only RBs to crack 70 rush yds vs ATL
  • Seven other RBs have reached 50 rush yds, & six RBs have reached 30 rec yds vs ATL
  • ATL has allowed a RB TD in 8/10 games

Matt Ryan:

  • Ryan has 22+ DK pts in 5/10 games, with highs of 29 & 31.5 DK pts
  • Ryan has sub-10 DK pts in four of the other five (7.4, 8.1, 2.7, 4.1)
  • Ryan’s DK scores since losing Ridley: 8.1, 31.5, 2.7, 4.1
  • QB pass yds allowed by JAC over last month: 195 // 264 // 180 // 176
  • Ryan’s pass yds since losing Ridley: 146 // 343 // 117 // 153

ATL WRs:

  • Targets w/o Ridley: Sharpe (5, 6, 1, 1, 4) // Olamide (4, 1, 3, 7, 5) // Gage (–, 0, 8, 3, 8)
  • WRs over 70 yds vs JAC: Cooks (132) // Sutton (159) // Green (112), Kirk (104) // Boyd (118), Chase (77) // Waddle (70:2) // Lockett (142) // Diggs (85) // Pittman (71) // Aiyuk (85:1)
  • JAC has allowed the 2nd highest success rate & 4th highest yds/att to WRs
  • Zacchaeus has 3 games of 70+ yds in 31 career games
  • Sharpe has 3 games of 70+ yds in 61 career games
  • Gage has 4 games of 70+ yds in 54 career games
  • The only useful ATL WR game since losing Ridley was a game Zacchaeus caught 2 TDs on 3 rec

Kyle Pitts:

  • Pitts targets: 8, 6, 3, 9, 10, 8, 6, 7, 7, 5
  • Pitts without Ridley: 9:119:1 // 2:13 // 3:62 // 4:60 // 3:29
  • JAC has allowed the 2nd highest yds/att to TEs
  • TEs with 30+ yds vs JAC: Brown (67) // Fant (33:1) // Uzomah (95:2) // Firkser (33) // Gesicki (115), Smythe (59) // Doyle (31) // Kittle (34:1)

ATL RBs:

  • Davis has been out-touched by Gallman & then Ollison on back to back weeks despite CPatt missing most of the two games
  • Rush att first four games vs last four full games: CPatt (7 // 7 // 7 // 6 ; 14 // 14 // 9 // 9)
  • Davis has yet to top 75 yds on the season, with a rushing yds high of 53
  • Gallman topped it in his one game with usage (DAL)
  • CPatt has 75+ yds in four of eight full games, but with a rushing yds high of 60
  • CPatt’s floor since W2 has been 14 DK pts (23.9, 16.2, 34.6, 18.4, 14.1, 18.2, 22.6)
  • CPatt has 7 TDs on the season, with two multi-TD games
  • CPatt has 5+ rec in 6/8 full games (2 // 5 // 6 // 5 // 7 // 2 // 5 // 6)
  • His rec yds in the games with 5+ rec: 58:1 // 82 // 82:3 // 60 // 37:1 // 126
  • RBs with 10+ rush att vs JAC: Ingram (85:1) // Williams (64), Gordon (31) // Conner (43:2), Edmonds (26) // Mixon (67:1) // Henry (130:3) // Collins (44) // Taylor (116:1) // Wilson (50), Sermon (32)
  • RBs with 4+ tg vs JAC: DJ (3:18:1) // Edmonds (7:49) // Gaskin (2:5) // Singletary (7:43), Moss (2:18)

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 28th 1:00pm Eastern

Steelers (
20) at

Bengals (
23.5)

Over/Under 43.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Steelers Run D
27th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
20th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
13th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
15th DVOA/6th Yards per pass
Bengals Run D
13th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
24th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
24th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
24th DVOA/11th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • Second divisional game of the season for these two teams, with Cincinnati taking the first matchup 24-10 in Pittsburgh.
  • This game will have large playoff and divisional implications for both teams. 
  • Be careful in your fantasy takeaways from the first matchup. There were some fluky things that happened that had a large impact on how things played out.
  • Both teams are better at defending the run than the pass, perhaps opening a path to a more aggressive matchup than we would think at first glance.

How pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

The Steelers offense has shown some signs of life lately as they have improved their scoring output and efficiency. The total points scored in Steelers games had a season high of 46 points through Week 8, with games that totaled 56 and 78 points in Ben Roethlisberger’s last two starts (there was also the 16-16 tie with the Lions when Mason Rudolph started at QB). This could be a fluke, the offense could be getting in a groove, or it could be driven by the defense not playing at the same elite level we’ve come to expect from Pittsburgh. In any regard, it is important to consider all options when making lineups this week because the game’s relatively low total will not reflect the somewhat larger range of outcomes that are here.

There were a lot of concerns about the Pittsburgh offensive line entering the season, and those concerns have mostly been validated by a unit that ranks 30th by PFF in run blocking through 11 weeks. Cincinnati boasts a top-10 DVOA run defense as well, so this is not a matchup where that area of weakness will be easily covered up. Najee Harris will still see a heavy workload and they won’t completely abandon the run (they can’t at this point in Ben’s career), but we should have limited expectations on what the production will look like. The Bengals worst defensive games of the season were back-to-back weeks against the Jets and Browns where they were exploited by weaker armed QBs who dink and dunked their way down the field by attacking the short areas of the field. This should be the recipe for success for the Steelers this week due to the difficult matchup in the running game and the fact that they are unlikely to have success deep down the field (Roethlisberger ranks 28th out of 36 qualifying QBs in PFF grade on throws 20+ yards downfield).

How cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

Cincinnati enters Week 12 on the heels of a convincing win over the Raiders that featured a whopping 30 carries for Joe Mixon. However, the box score for that game does not tell the whole story of how things played out, or the approach the Bengals took throughout the game. Cincinnati actually called pass plays on over 60% of their plays prior to opening up a multi-score lead in the second half and coasting to a big win. As has been noted many times over the last few weeks, Cincinnati has become a more aggressive team as they get deeper into the year and has settled in right around the league average in situation-neutral pass rate recently.

Enter a matchup with the Steelers and some clear signals that the Bengals may be encouraged to lean on the pass game. PFF grades Pittsburgh’s rush defense as the 4th best unit against the run while giving their secondary the 4th worst grade in coverage. Joe Burrow had a highly efficient game in the first matchup between these teams, and with the run defense stacking things up so well, and a coverage unit that has been bleeding production lately, it is likely that the Bengals look to leverage their talented receiving corps in this matchup. It would also benefit Cincinnati to come out with an aggressive offensive mindset in this game, as an early lead would put pressure on Ben Roethlisberger to keep up. As noted above, Roethlisberger has really struggled to push the ball downfield. He has also been the 3rd worst QB in the league against pressure, ranking above only Jimmy Garoppolo and Justin Fields in PFF grade when under pressure. Cincinnati will be aggressive early on so that they can get Pittsburgh in predictable passing situations where they can pin their ears back and apply pressure.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game is likely to flow in a similar fashion to last week’s Bengals game against the Raiders. The Bengals defense is solid (especially against middling competition) and will likely keep Pittsburgh from having a fast start. Meanwhile, the Bengals offense will likely have some early success but the familiarity of these teams and the talent the Steelers possess on defense should keep things from getting out of hand in the first half of the game. It is worth noting that even in the two high-scoring games the Steelers have had recently, the halftime scores were only 14-3 and 17-10.

At some point, it is likely that Cincinnati’s passing game will make a couple of big plays and Pittsburgh turnovers could also contribute to an earlier than expected lead for the Bengals. In their Week 3 matchup, two Pittsburgh turnovers left Cincinnati with short fields that they converted for touchdowns, and Ja’Marr Chase had a 54-yard touchdown on a three-play drive. It will be interesting to see how this game plays out if there aren’t any fluky plays which alter the game script for both teams. In Week 3, Cincinnati became very conservative and run-heavy once they built the lead, and Ben ended up throwing 58 times. This game has a huge range of outcomes. It is very possible the game plays out close to its over/under of 45 points, but there are also very clear scenarios for this to turn into a classic AFC North slug-it-out game, or it could get out of hand with a back and forth scoring affair.


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DFS+ Interpretation :

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Vegas total of 45 is the fourth lowest in Week 12
  • CIN’s implied total has risen by 3.25 pts since opening, PIT’s has lowered 4.25
  • CIN’s 24.75 implied total is tied for seventh highest
  • PIT’s 20.25 implied total is the third lowest
  • The UNDER is 7-3 in PIT games
  • The UNDER is 6-4 in CIN games
  • CIN averages the fewest penalties and fewest penalty yardage on offense
  • PIT opponents average the third most penalties and third most penalty yardage on offense
  • Per numberFire, PIT ranks 30th in adjusted seconds per play (31.7) and 11th in adjusted passing rate (61.1%)
  • CIN ranks 26th in adjusted seconds per play (31.0) and ninth in adjusted passing rate (62.3%)

Ben Roethlisberger

  • Ranks 35th in PFF passing grade
  • PIT QBs are averaging 39.4 passing attempts per game (fifth most)
  • Six yards per attempt ranks tied for fifth fewest, 9.3 yards per completion is tied for third fewest
  • Averaging just 15.44 DK ppg
  • Week 11’s SNF 37-41 loss to the Chargers produced Ben’s ceiling output this year of 22.92 DK pts
  • It was only the third time he scored 20+ DK pts in a year
  • In Week 10 last year, he scored 32.32 vs. CIN
  • CIN ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (19.1)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Kirk Cousins 25.04 // Aaron Rodgers 23.76 // Lamar Jackson 23.08 // Mike White 31.1

PIT Passing Attack

  • Third highest usage rate of 11 personnel (73%)
  • Snap share: Diontae Johnson 78.3% // Chase Claypool 64.4% // Pat Freiermuth 57.7% // James Washington 49.6% // Ray-Ray McCloud 36.3%
  • Target share: Johnson 24.1% // Claypool 15.5% // Freiermuth 12.4% // Washington 6.9% // McCloud 6.1%
  • In nine active weeks, Johnson has seen 13 targets five times
  • Among qualified WRs, he ranks fourth in target share, ninth in air yard market share, and fourth in WOPR (per Koalaty Stats)
  • His 18.1 DK ppg ranks 12th
  • His lowest DK output has been 11.7 pts, his highest has been 26.1
  • Claypool ranks 13th in air yard market share and 21st in WOPR
  • He has only one game with 20+ DK pts (27 vs. DEN)
  • He’s scored less than 15 DK pts in seven out of nine games
  • In Week 3 vs. CIN, he scored 18.6 DK pts (Johnson was inactive)
  • McCloud saw 12 targets in Week 10 with Claypool inactive and Mason Rudolph under center
  • In Week 11 with Claypool & Roethlisberger returning he had just two
  • He scored 15.3 in Week 10 but has otherwise failed to hit 7 pts
  • Washington hasn’t scored 15 DK pts in over a year
  • CIN ranks 11th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (35.4)
  • Only two opposing WRs have scored 20+ DK pts: Adam Thielen 30.2 // Davante Adams 40.6
  • Freiermuth rose to prominence with Eric Ebron’s absence
  • In Week 11, his snaps dropped to effectively an even split with Ebron
  • Ebron may now miss the rest of the season with an injury
  • Freiermuth’s target counts since Week 6: 7 // 7 // 6 // 9 // 7
  • DK log in those games: 12.8 // 14.4 // 21.3 // 7.1 // 11.1
  • CIN ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Robert Tonyan 1.8 // Mark Andrews 7.8 // Pat Freiermuth 11.2 // TJ Hockenson 15.4 // Darren Waller 21.6

Najee Harris

  • Among qualified RBs, Harris ranks second in rush share, fifth in goal line share, fourth in target share, sixth in WOPR, and first in RBOPR
  • His 20.2 DK ppg ranks sixth
  • Despite all the usage, Harris has scored just 7 TDs on the season
  • That’s tied with RBs like Cordarrelle Patterson, Damien Harris, James Robinson, and Melvin Gordon
  • CIN ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (28.2)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: James Robinson 20.6 // Dalvin Cook 21.4 // Najee Harris 31.2 // Michael Carter 32.3 // Nick Chubb 33.3

Joe Burrow

  • Ranks seventh in PFF passing grade
  • 8.4 YPA ranks second and 8.8 ADoT ranks ninth
  • 19.1 DK ppg ranks 13th
  • In the past two weeks, his combined total DK pts scored is less than 20 pts
  • In the five weeks prior to this cold stretch, he scored 20+ DK pts each week
  • In the first three weeks of the season, he failed to hit 20 pts (including Week 3’s 18.58 pts @ PIT)
  • PIT ranks 10th in DK ppg allowed to QBs (19)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Derek Carr 27.18 // Aaron Rodgers 24.12 // Justin Herbert 38.28

CIN Passing Attack

  • Fourth highest usage rate of 11 personnel (72%)
  • Snap share: Ja’Marr Chase 88.2% // CJ Uzomah 75.5% // Tyler Boyd 74.4% // Tee Higgins 61.3%
  • Target share: Chase 24.8% // Boyd 19.7% // Higgins 18.8% // Uzomah 9.7%
  • Among qualified WRs, Chase ranks 14th in target share, second in air yard market share, and eighth in WOPR
  • His 19.1 DK ppg ranks seventh
  • He’s scored in the single digits just once (9.9)
  • His DK salary started at $4,800 in Week 1 but is $7,300 in Week 11
  • In 10 games this season, Boyd has scored in the single digits five times
  • DK log in the other five: 14.3 // 13.6 // 23.8 // 19.74 // 12.3
  • Higgins saw his fewest targets on the season in Week 11 (3) and yet had his highest snap count (59)
  • His DK log: 15.8 // 17 // 10.2 // 7.4 // 13.2 // 13.7 // 13.8 // 3.5
  • PIT ranks 25th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (39.1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Darnell Mooney 20.6 // Mike Williams 20.7 // Ja’Marr Chase 22.5 // Keenan Allen 23.2 // Randall Cobb 23.9 // Henry Ruggs 25.5 // Courtland Sutton 28
  • Uzomah averages 3.1 targets per game
  • His five TDs is tied for second most at the position this season
  • He’s scored in the single digits in six out of nine games
  • DK log in the other three: 26.5 // 10.5 // 24.1
  • All five TDs came in those games
  • PIT ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (11.2)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: CJ Uzomah 0 // Robert Tonyan 2.8 // Foster Moreau 11.4 // Darren Waller 11.5 // Cole Kmet 14.7

Joe Mixon

  • 65.4% snap share, 8.2% target share, and 20.2 touches per game
  • Among qualified RBs, ranks fourth in rush share, second in goal line share, 25th in target share, and eighth in RBOPR
  • His 18.9 DK ppg ranks ninth
  • 11 TDs is tied for fifth most among all RBs
  • PIT ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (23.4)
  • Prior to Austin Ekeler’s 41.5 pt explosion in Week 11, no RB had hit 20 DK pts against PIT and only two had cracked 15+ (D’Andre Swift 19.5 // Alex Collins 19.8)

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 28th 4:05pm Eastern

Chargers (
25) at

Broncos (
22)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Chargers Run D
32nd DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
16th DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
23rd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
13th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
22nd DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
14th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
20th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mjohnson86 >>
  • This game will be a battle of two teams who operate at very different paces.
  • Both defenses are bottom-5 in the league against the run while having above average secondaries.
  • Denver has gone 2-5 in their last seven games and during that stretch, they have only scored 20+ points two times.
  • This is the first of two divisional matchups between these teams, with both teams needing a win in the tight AFC playoff race.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Los Angeles is a very aggressive team that plays at the 5th fastest situation-neutral pace of play and has a top-5 situation-neutral pass rate. With an elite young QB and a slew of top-tier playmakers at the skill positions, it is not surprising that the Chargers would approach games so aggressively.

We should expect more of the same in this matchup as Los Angeles keeps the same macro offensive approach against every opponent. However, they do an excellent job of changing the areas of the field that they attack depending on the matchup. Denver has been disappointing defensively this season, in large part due to injuries, since their hot start to the year against very poor competition. Denver’s run defense has been especially poor, with their linebacker corps decimated by injuries over the season. While the Chargers are unlikely to turn into a run-heavy team in this matchup, it is likely that they will look to exploit the relative weakness of the Broncos in the middle of the field by getting their tight ends and running backs in space, as well as a healthy dose of Keenan Allen who is particularly effective against man coverage and finding openings in Cover-2 schemes like the one that Denver plays at a high rate. Downfield passing may be tough sledding early on for the Chargers, but may open up throughout the game if they are able to attack effectively in the short and intermediate areas of the field.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Denver plays at a slow pace and throws the ball at a league-average rate. They are a team with a defensive head coach who likes to control the tempo and “keep the game in front of him” by trying to win by winning the turnover battle and field position game, only occasionally turning aggressive on both sides of the ball. Their defensive pass rush is not what it was expected to be coming into the year (Denver’s pass rush is graded 29th by PFF), which has led them to play more conservatively on the back end with a bend but don’t break mentality — Denver’s red zone defense is 8th in the league in red-zone TD rate allowed.

This week, the Broncos face the worst run defense in the league by almost any metric. Denver’s running game has not been elite by any measure this season, but the mentality of their head coach fits perfectly in this spot to attack the glaring weakness of their opponent. Javonte Williams is third in the league in missed tackles forced and feels like he is primed for a breakout down the stretch, while Melvin Gordon has also been very solid with his opportunities this year. The Broncos have a deep pass-catching corps, so when they do throw the ball, they have a lot of options of how to attack. The Chargers are very tough on the perimeter and have some stud pass rushers, making it likely that Noah Fant and/or Jerry Jeudy see a relatively high percentage of targets this week, along with some pass-game usage for the running backs.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

The Broncos are likely to run the ball at a high volume and, with the 30th situation-neutral pace of play in the league, will bleed the clock as they are highly likely to be able to sustain drives in this manner. Their likely success on the ground and ability to shorten the game will also have an effect on the other side of the ball, as Denver’s ability to put some points on the board in the first half will allow them to play conservatively on defense and force the Chargers to take a more methodical offensive approach.

This game has some potential to become higher scoring, as the Broncos have a higher chance of offensive success this week than they do most weeks and the Chargers have so many explosive offensive pieces. That being said, it will likely take some big plays and/or back and forth scoring in the second half to make that happen. Normally, I would say that if the Chargers are able to take the lead, Denver would likely struggle to get back in the game against such a good pass rush and secondary. Teddy Bridgewater has been more aggressive this year than we’ve seen in the past, but the Chargers’ scheme is designed to force mistakes from teams when they are in predictable situations. However, the Chargers’ secondary is currently battling a slew of injuries with four of their defensive backs not practicing yet this week, making it more likely that in a pass-heavy game script, the Broncos would be able to move the ball and keep it close, as the Steelers were able to do last week.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Vegas total of 48 is tied for the second highest on the week
  • LAC’s 25.5 implied total is tied for third highest (risen four points since opening)
  • DEN’s implied total opened at 24 but has since fallen to 22.5
  • The UNDER is 6-4 in LAC games
  • The UNDER is 8-2 in DEN games
  • Per numberFire, LAC ranks second in adjusted seconds per play (28.1) and sixth in adjusted passing rate (63.5%)
  • DEN ranks 28th in adjusted seconds per play (31.2) and 12th in adjusted passing rate (60.8%)

Justin Herbert

  • Ranks tied for fifth in PFF passing grade
  • 39.5 pass attempts per game ranks fourth highest
  • 24.98 DK ppg ranks fourth
  • Four games of 30+ DK pts: 30.84 // 45.82 // 34.64 // 38.28
  • In his other six games, he only hit 20+ pts once (21.28)
  • DEN ranks fourth in DK ppg allowed to QBs (16.6)
  • Only three QBs have hit 20+ pts: Daniel Jones 22.38 // Lamar Jackson 22.44 // Derek Carr 24.54

LAC Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Keenan Allen 88.7% // Mike Williams 77.3% // Jared Cook 57.3% // Jalen Guyton 56.4% // Donald Parham 46.9%
  • Target share: Allen 26.8% // Williams 19.7% // Cook 12.7% // Guyton 6.3% // Parham 4.8%
  • Among qualified WRs, Allen ranks fifth in target share and 12th in WOPR (per Koalaty Stats)
  • His 17.9 DK ppg ranks 13th
  • Allen has scored double digit DK pts in every game but his ceiling so far has been 25.4
  • Williams ranks 24th in air yard market share and 25th in WOPR
  • His 17.6 DK ppg ranks 15th
  • In his first five games, Williams scored 22.2, 22.1, 36.2, 2.1, and 39.5 pts
  • His 20.7 DK pts in Week 11 was the first time he hit double digits since Week 5
  • No other WR has hit double digits for LAC
  • DEN ranks eighth in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Only three opposing WRs has hit 20+ DK pts: Devonta Smith 22.6 // Chase Claypool 27 // Sterling Shepard 27.3
  • Cook is averaging 7.96 DK ppg
  • Parham is averaging 7.03 DK ppg
  • DEN ranks second in DK ppg allowed to TEs (8.3)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Dalton Schultz 9.4 // Darren Waller 10.9 // Mark Andrews 11.7

Austin Ekeler

  • Among qualified RBs, ranks 16th in rush share, fifth in total goal line rushes, 18th in goal line share, fifth in target share, fifth in WOPR, and ninth in RBOPR
  • His 22.5 DK ppg ranks third
  • His DK salary started at $7,000 in Week 1
  • In Week 12, his salary is $8,400 (career high)
  • DEN ranks ninth in DK ppg allowed to RBs (22.3)
  • Only three RBs have hit 20+ DK pts: Kenyan Drake 21.3 // Najee Harris 25.2 // D’Ernest Johnson 27.8

Teddy Bridgewater

  • Ranks 13th in PFF passing grade
  • Averaging 16.65 DK ppg
  • Scored 20+ pts in four of 10 games: 20.46 // 24.22 // 25.26 // 21.86
  • LAC ranks sixth in DK ppg allowed to QBs (17.3)
  • Only three QBs have hit 20+ pts: Ben Roethlisberger 22.92 // Patrick Mahomes 24.9 // Baker Mayfield 26

DEN Passing Attack

  • Snap share: Courtland Sutton 86% // Tim Patrick 82.6% // Noah Fant 74.5% // Jerry Jeudy 63.1%
  • Target share: Sutton 19.6% // Fant 17.3% // Patrick 15.5% // Jeudy 8.2%
  • Jeudy has been the WR 3 in snaps in all three of his games since returning from injury in Week 8
  • He’s led the team or tied for first in targets in all three games: 4 // 8 // 9
  • DK log this year: 13.2 // 7.9 // 12.9 // 11.1
  • Sutton’s target counts since Jeudy’s return: 4 // 2 // 3
  • Among all WRs, Sutton ranks 11th in air yard market share and 23rd in WOPR
  • With Jeudy absent, Sutton’s DK log: 27.9 // 8.7 // 7.7 // 28 // 23.4 // 11.8
  • With Jeudy present: 2.4 // 6 // 3.9 // 4.9
  • Patrick’s DK log with Jeudy absent: 12.7 // 14.8 // 6.9 // 15.9 // 13.2 // 3.6
  • With Jeudy present: 13.9 // 9.4 // 18.5 // 4.4
  • LAC ranks sixth in DK ppg allowed to WRs (33.3)
  • Only three opposing WRs have hit 20+ DK pts: Devonta Smith 25.6 // Justin Jefferson 25.9 // Diontae Johnson 26.1
  • Fant has scored double digit DK pts in five of nine games: 12.2 // 13.3 // 16.6 // 24.7 // 10.9
  • LAC ranks 29th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (17.1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Pat Freiermuth 11.1 // Eric Ebron 11.4 // Logan Thomas 12 // Darren Waller 15 // Tyler Conklin 16.1 // Mark Andrews 17.8 // Travis Kelce 20.4 // David Njoku 30.9

DEN RBs

  • Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams operate in a near 50/50 timeshare
  • Snap share: Gordon 53.5% // Williams 46%
  • Target share: Williams 8.5% // Gordon 8.2%
  • Touches per game: Gordon 13.9 // Williams 12.7
  • Goal line rushes: Gordon 10 // Williams 9
  • RBOPR: Gordon 0.28 // Williams 0.26
  • DK ppg: Gordon 13.24 // Williams 10.3
  • Gordon leads Williams in TDs, seven to two
  • LAC ranks 24th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (27.2)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Dalvin Cook 20.8 // CEH 20.9 // Kareem Hunt 25.9 // Tony Pollard 26 // Nick Chubb 27

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 28th 4:25pm Eastern

Rams (
24) at

Packers (
23)

Over/Under 47

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Notes

Key Matchups
Rams Run D
5th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
8th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
6th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
2nd DVOA/12th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
28th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
12th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
15th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
7th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By MJOHNSON86 >>
  • There are clear paths to this game living up to the hype with another back and forth game involving the Packers.
  • Los Angeles has more uncertainty around them than we have become accustomed to, due to personnel, injuries, and the bye week.
  • The health of Aaron Jones will likely have a very real effect on how the Packers approach this game and, in turn, what game flow we see.
  • The Packers’ defense has had some great games on the surface, but a deeper exploration sees clear “types” of offenses that they have success against and those they struggle with.

How Los Angeles Will Try To Win ::

The Rams are a team that, after being very predictable for the first few weeks of the year, has struggled with efficiency and game script over their last two games. Coming out of the bye week, I would expect the Rams to have addressed some of the issues they had heading into the bye. Generally speaking, bye weeks tend to be “direction changers” for a lot of teams. Those teams who go into the bye on a high note will often struggle to continue that success in their first game back (see the Bucs and Seahawks earlier this year) as the bye gets them out of their routine and it is hard to continue that momentum. Meanwhile, those teams who are having issues are able to address them and find answers to get back on track — along with the tactical advantage of time to install new concepts and wrinkles that their next opponent won’t be preparing for. The Rams’ bye came at the perfect time for them as they reconfigure their plans after the loss of Robert Woods and find creative ways to make teams pay for the things they are doing to take away the Rams’ strengths.

The Packers’ defense has performed very well in specific matchups, but those matchups tend to have a “type”: poor offenses and/or teams with very concentrated attacks that are easy to know what to “take away” are the spots that the Packers have had a lot of success. The Packers have only given up 20+ points in four of seven games this year, with those games coming against the 49ers, Vikings, Cardinals, and Bengals. All of those teams have a very broad distribution of touches and/or a depth of playmakers at the skill positions. Those teams also have very clear structures and philosophies to their offenses, something that makes it difficult for the Packers to scheme things away or just focus on taking away personnel. Many will point to the Packers’ defensive success against the Seahawks and Chiefs as reasons to be wary of this matchup, but the Seahawks were coming off a bye and Russell Wilson was still recovering from his gruesome finger injury and the Chiefs’ offensive struggles have mostly been due to their lack of structure and undisciplined offensive approach that relies on Patrick Mahomes’ ad-lib style. Both teams are also highly concentrated towards their top two pass catchers and have poor rushing attacks. The Rams, on the other hand, have a trio of capable wide receivers, an above-average every-down tight end, and a solid running scheme and personnel. The Rams also have one of the better-structured offenses in the league and will find ways to exploit the weaknesses of Green Bay’s defense.

That was a lot of information without getting to the point of “how the Rams will try to win”, but I think it is all extremely relevant information to make an informed decision on addressing that question. The surface stats and circumstances around the Packers’ defense do not do justice to what the reality of this matchup is. Many people will look at the Packers’ box scores and defensive points per game and look back at the high-profile games where they played well as reasons to avoid this spot. However, the Rams’ scheme and depth of personnel allow them to attack opponents in a variety of different ways which becomes a problem for Green Bay’s overachieving defense. At the end of the day, the only sure thing is that Cooper Kupp will get a healthy dose of usage but the Rams’ scheme allows the creativity to move him around and get him the ball in creative ways, making it nearly impossible for the Packers to key on him to the point where they can neutralize him — doing so would require selling out to the point that they would almost certainly be burned repeatedly elsewhere. Green Bay has a poor run defense that the Rams will certainly attack, likely with both running backs mixing in and they should also play with their usual league-leading tempo.

How Green Bay Will Try To Win ::

Green Bay is a team that plays at a snail’s pace and throws at a rate right around the league average. However, there are some interesting things at play in this matchup that can give us a glimpse into what to expect from the Packers::

  • First of all, the Rams have the #7 DVOA run defense and rank #1 in PFF’s rush defense grades. The Packers’ offensive line is PFF’s 28th graded unit in run blocking and just lost their best offensive lineman, tackle Elgton Jenkins, for the season to a torn ACL. The Rams’ typically stout pass defense has struggled by most advanced metrics, having success mainly due to a schedule of poor opposing passing offenses. Kyler Murray and Tom Brady are the only passers the Rams have faced that are anywhere near Aaron Rodgers in terms of talent and football IQ, making a recipe for the Packers to take the path of least resistance.
  • Second, the Packers’ defense (as noted above) is a unit that has had success against specific types of teams and specific game environments. The result for the offense in those games is conservative play-calling and bleeding the clock. This game environment is one that the defense will likely struggle with, increasing the chances of the Packers staying aggressive and playing at a more normal pace.
  • Finally, Aaron Jones’ likely return gives them another explosive option that could increase their chances of big plays and quick scoring drives. His presence may actually help the Packers make the choice to lean into their passing game as his ability to catch balls out of the backfield makes that approach more feasible without becoming too predictable.

The Packers will, at worst, play at their “normal” rates of average pass rate with above-average efficiency but slow pace. At best, they will lean on their MVP quarterback who is coming off a monster performance and be forced to raise their tempo due to their opponent. The Rams’ stout run defense and Packers’ offensive line injuries make it highly unlikely they would increase their run rate and they really can’t go any slower than their usual rate, making their offense a decent bet in this spot.

Likeliest Game flow ::

The Rams play at a breakneck pace and the Packers are likely to raise their pass rate, be fairly efficient doing so, and play at a faster than normal pace against a formidable opponent. The offensive firepower involved in this matchup of two top-5 offenses in the league makes for a potentially juicy offensive environment on the smallest main slate of the year which is lacking several of the top offenses in the league. Green Bay likes to play with a methodical, balanced approach which often makes them frustrating from a fantasy perspective. However, this game has multiple paths to bringing them out of their shell and making this quickly become the most exciting game on the slate.

Both teams are good enough on both sides of the ball while also being very well coached. That makes it difficult to peg a specific game script that is most likely. That may sound like a cop out to what this section is supposed to be about, but it’s a reality here. While I don’t know exactly how it will get there, my feeling is that there are a lot more game flows that result in a high-scoring game than most people will realize. For a game that has this much offensive talent and on a slate that is missing a lot of the top end players in the league, it is noteworthy that there are currently only three players projecting for double-digit ownership — with none over 20%.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Vegas total of 47.5 is fourth highest on the week
  • From Weeks 1-8, LAR scored at least 20 pts in every game
  • In Weeks 9 & 10, they scored 16 and 10 pts
  • GB has scored at least 24 pts in all but three games
  • Per numberFire, LAR ranks 18th in adjusted seconds per play (29.7) and fourth in adjusted pass rate (65.1%)
  • GB ranks 32nd in adjusted seconds per play (32.9) and 13th in adjusted pass rate (60.2%)

Matthew Stafford

  • Ranks 12th in PFF passing grade
  • 8.3 YPA ranks tied for third
  • Averaging the fourth highest passing yards per game (289.3) and the second most passing TDs (2.4)
  • 22.9 DK ppg ranks eighth
  • In Weeks 1-8, scored less than 20 pts just once (18.22)
  • In Weeks 9 & 10, he scored 15.06 and 11.82 pts
  • DK salary started at $6,200, hit a peak of $7,700, but has fallen back to $7,100
  • GB ranks seventh in DK ppg allowed to QBs (18)
  • As a Lion, Stafford has averaged 21.48 DK ppg in Lambeau
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Joe Burrow 20.34 // Jared Goff 20.44 // Taylor Heinicke 22.22 // Kirk Cousins 28.24 // Jameis Winston 29.62

LAR Passing Attack

  • Highest usage rate of 11 personnel in the league (88%)
  • Robert Woods was lost for the season in Week 9
  • Week 10 snap count: Cooper Kupp 55 // Tyler Higbee 54 // Van Jefferson 52 // Ben Skowronek 42 // OBJ 15
  • Target count: Kupp 13 // Jefferson 7 // Skowronek 5 // Higbee 5 // OBJ 3
  • Among qualified WRs, Kupp ranks first in target share, 18th in air yard market share, and third in WOPR (per Koalaty Stats)
  • His 27.7 DK ppg is 5.4 pts greater than the next best WR (Deebo Samuel)
  • He’s tied for first in TDs with Mike Evans (10)
  • He leads all WRs with 24 red zone targets
  • Kupp’s DK salary has climbed $4,100 since Week 1 (from $5,500 to $9,600)
  • Jefferson has had four double digit games: 16 // 21 // 14.3 // 11.8
  • With Woods out and DeSean Jackson gone from the team, no other WR has hit double digit pts
  • GB ranks seventh in DK ppg allowed to WRs (33.8)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Adam Thielen 22.2 // Diontae Johnson 24.2 // Terry McLaurin 28.2 // Ja’Marr Chase 30.9 // Justin Jefferson 40.2
  • Higbee has averaged 9.04 DK ppg, with four double digit totals: 11.8 // 15 // 10.1 // 11
  • GB ranks 17th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (13.1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Ricky Seals-Jones 11.1 // Gerald Everett 14.3 // George Kittle 17.1 // Travis Kelce 17.8 // TJ Hockenson 20.6

Darrel Henderson

  • Among qualified RBs, ranks eighth in rush share, 10th in goal line share, 17th in target share, 13th in WOPR, and 11th in RBOPR
  • He’s averaging 15.52 DK ppg on 16.6 touches per game
  • DK log: 15.7 // 17.2 // 16.6 // 16.9 // 24.7 // 9.4 // 22.3 // 8.8 // 8.1
  • RB ranks eighth in DK ppg allowed to RBs (22.2)
  • Only two opposing RBs have hit 20+ DK pts: Najee Harris 21.1 // Dalvin Cook 22.5

Aaron Rodgers

  • Ranks 11th in PFF passing grade
  • Averaging his lowest pass attempts per game since 2014 (32.8)
  • 20.9 DK ppg ranks 11th
  • His 36.5 pts last week was the first time he scored over 25 since Week 2 vs. DET
  • LAR ranks eighth in DK ppg allowed to QBs (18.3)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Kyler Murray 22.62 // Davis Mills 24.4 (not a typo) // Tom Brady 31.68

GB Passing Attack

  • Third highest usage rate of 12 personnel (30%)
  • Snap share: Davante Adams 78.3% // MVS 65.6% // Allen Lazard 61.4% // Randall Cobb 49.9% // Marcedes Lewis 45.4%
  • Target share: Adams 28.7% // Cobb 9.2% // MVS 8.1% // Lazard 7% // Lewis 3.8%
  • Among qualified WRs, Adams ranks third in total air yards, second in target share, third in air yard market share, and first in WOPR (per Koalaty Stats)
  • His 21.2 DK ppg ranks fourth
  • He’s had half as many TDs this year as Cooper Kupp (5)
  • Adams is tied for fifth in total red zone targets (15)
  • Cobb has only two double digit DK games: 23.9 // 16.5
  • Before last week’s 25.3 pt explosion, MVS had only had one other double digit total (14.9 @ SF)
  • Lazard has hit double digits twice: 11.7 // 17
  • LAR ranks 16th in DK ppg allowed to WRs (36.8)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Brandin Cooks 20.3 // Kalif Raymond 20.6 // Mike Evans 21.6 // Michael Pittman 23.3 // DK Metcalf 26.8 // Deebo Samuel 30.3
  • Because he caught a TD, Josiah Deguara became the first non-Robert Tonyan TE to hit double digits for GB (11.7)
  • LAR ranks 26th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (16.4)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Jordan Akins 10.3 // TJ Hockenson 10.8 // Geoff Swaim 12.9 // Jack Doyle 13.4 // George Kittle 16 // Maxx Williams 17.6

AJ Dillon

  • With Aaron Jones out in Week 11, Dillon produced 11 rushing attempts for 53 yards and caught all six of his targets for 44 yards
  • Those 11 attempts were the third lowest by the lead GB rusher in a game this season
  • He scored 15.7 DK pts
  • In Week 10, in which Jones was hurt and Dillon took over, Dillon scored 26.8 pts
  • Dillon’s DK salary shot up $1,400 before his Week 11 start but has since fallen $300
  • LAR ranks 12th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (23.4)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Giovani Bernard 20.1 // James Conner 20.6 // Chase Edmonds 20.9 // David Montgomery 21.8 // D’Andre Swift 28.4

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 28th 4:25pm Eastern

Vikings (
22.75) at

49ers (
26.25)

Over/Under 49.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Vikings Run D
25th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
5th DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
16th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
5th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
49ers Run D
2nd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
27th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
16th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • 49ers running back JaMycal Hasty appears headed for a third consecutive missed game, while Elijah Mitchell sets his sights on returning from a one-game absence following surgery on his finger.
  • The Vikings appear to be healthier than they’ve been in some time, particularly in the secondary.
  • Both defenses rank in the bottom half of the league in opponent red zone touchdown rate allowed, while both offenses rank in the top five.
  • One of the best game environments on the slate, and it currently appears the field is not regarding it as such.

How minnesota Will Try To Win ::

Following a three-point victory over the Packers in Week 11, the Vikings have now played nine of ten games to a one-score game. That’s almost unheard of in today’s NFL landscape. I’ll say that again: nine of the Vikings ten games this year have been decided by seven points or less. What’s even more interesting is the way they have gone about doing this, seemingly mirroring the offensive approach of each opponent. As in, they are unlikely to push the envelope on their own and have largely played to their opponent. Since Vikings games remain close throughout, it typically harbors a game environment where production is much easier to project and game environments land in Xandamere’s “barbell” of potential outcomes. Said another way, Vikings games often either completely fail or surpass expectations. One thing that really stands out here is the pace of play splits for the Vikings offense, as they increase their pace of play to the extreme when trailing (second-ranked 22.20 seconds per play when trailing by seven or more points).

Running back Dalvin Cook leads the league in snap rate played when healthy, checking in with 71% of the offensive snaps played or more in every healthy game. We’ve spoken to the expected positive regression as far as touchdowns go, as he has scored only four total touchdowns a year after scoring 17. Minnesota ranks fifth in the league in red-zone touchdown rate on offense, meaning a lot of the low touchdowns numbers from Dalvin this year can be attributed to variance and noise. I’d expect that trend to reverse to finish out the year. The matchup on the ground yields a disgusting 3.775 net-adjusted line yards metric, as the Niners rank top five in the league against the run and the Vikings rank bottom five. Dalvin is unlikely to see a significant boost in efficiency here, thusly relying on pass game involvement and touchdowns to return value on his steep price tag. Behind Dalvin, expect Alexander Mattison to mix in for a modest backup role.

Quarterback Kirk Cousins has attempted between 34 and 38 passes in seven of the Vikings ten games, with one game of 28 pass attempts, one game of 48 pass attempts, and one game of 49 pass attempts. That gives us a solid baseline when projecting expected pass volume for this team moving forward. Now consider the fact that the primary pass-catchers are a condensed group consisting of Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, KJ Osborn (kind of?), tight end Ty Conklin, and the running backs, and we’re left with one of the more bankable and predictable offenses in the league. The matchup with the Niners tilts expected volume and production towards the short and intermediate middle of the field, providing a slight boost to Adam Thielen and Ty Conklin, although the 49ers have largely limited opposing tight end production against this season.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

The 49ers would like to control games through their own run game and an efficiency-driven pass game, which typically relies on splash plays and red-zone efficiency (number one ranked red zone touchdown rate) for their value. That said, this team has scored four touchdowns or more in half of their games this season, and their opponent this week is one that should force them into increased aggression. The Vikings also run the fifth most offensive plays per game and increase their pace of play to extreme levels when trailing, which is a significant boost to the expected volume for San Francisco here.

The run game is the one spot where we’re left with a good deal of unknowns in this game, as JaMycal Hasty is highly likely to miss this game, and Elijah Mitchell appears ready to return from a one-game absence after having surgery to repair ligaments in his finger. We should tentatively expect Mitchell to regain his lead-back role if he is able to return, while Jeff Wilson, Jr. acts as the primary change of pace back, and Trey Sermon is available for emergency duties. Although this backfield lacks floor due primarily to low usage through the passing game, the touchdown equity and splash play potential keep the ceiling very high considering price. The matchup on the ground yields an above-average 4.425 net-adjusted line yards metric, held down by the 49ers low marks in metric (again, George Kittle is this team’s best run-blocker, and he missed a good chunk of the season).

The standard range of outcomes as far as pass attempts go for Jimmy Garoppolo is 27-30, but we’ve seen extreme outlier games on either side of that range on multiple occasions this season (four games of 25 pass attempts or fewer and two games of 40 pass attempts). The big picture with this offense is they are much more reliant on their ability to generate splash plays than they are on volume. The three primary playmakers through the passing game (George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk) are all amongst the league leaders in splash plays generated over the previous two seasons. The matchup shouldn’t hinder this offense’s chances at generating those same splash plays, which is simultaneously a hinder to expected volume but a boost to expected efficiency.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

Because we can be fairly certain that the Vikings will play to the level of their opponents, game flow and game environment are often driven by whoever they are playing. The big picture is that the percentage solution for Vikings games is that we see a close game throughout, with this team equipped to shootout with the best of them but largely unwilling to be the aggressor on their own. Enter a 49ers team that lives off of splash play creation, with George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk amongst the top “splash play potential” players at their respective positions. All of that to say, this game has as high a likelihood as any other this weekend to turn into the top game environment on the slate and falls on a week where there is only one game with a Vegas total over 50 points (TB @ IND). We’re likeliest to see the 49ers dictate the game flow and the Vikings dictate the game environment, which is a positive to the game overall as the 49ers are set up in such a positive matchup.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::

By Dwprix >>

Overview:

  • 2nd highest total on 10 game slate (49)
  • Total has risen from 46.5
  • Line opened -6.5 but has moved towards MIN w/ SF now favored by 3.5
  • MIN is 6-4 ATS, SF is 4-6 
  • SF & MIN are in the Wildcard hunt at 5-5
  • Both teams are in as of Friday (NO loss on Thurs pushed SF into 7th spot)
  • SF is 1-4 at home (1-4 ATS) // MIN is 2-3 on the road (4-1 ATS)
  • SF has held its last two opponents to 10 pts (JAX & LAR)
  • Both teams have won their last 2 games
  • MIN has scored 30+ five times, SF has scored 30+ in four
  • SF has won every game they’ve scored 30+ (implied pt total of 26.25 this week)
  • MIN has played 3 OT games already this season (BAL, CAR, CIN)
  • SF ranks 1st in RZ scoring % (77.8) // MN ranks 5th (67.7)
  • MIN/SF faced off in 2018 & 2019 playoffs 
  • 2019: SF 27-MIN 10 // 2018: MIN 24-SF 16

Jimmy Garoppolo:

  • Faced MN twice as SF QB: 2019 Playoffs (11:19:131:1 TD:1 INT:8.24 DK pts) // 2018 (15:33:261:1 TD:3 INTs:12.04 DK pts)
  • Pass atts in wins: (22, 19, 28, 30, 25) // In losses (40, 27, 23, 40)
  • In 9 games he’s thrown for 300+ 3 times
  • No 3 TD games but 2 total TDs/g in last 4 (6 pass, 2 rush)
  • Jimmy has 2 games w/ 20+ DK pts (23.3, 30.3)
  • This week ties season high in price ($5.7k)
  • To pay off DK salary: 3x-(17.1) // 4x-(22.8) // 5x-(28.5)
  • MIN ranks 30th in DK pts allowed to QBs (21.5)

Deebo Samuel/Brandon Aiyuk:

  • SF ranks 1st in yds/rec (12.1)
  • Deebo ranks 4th in yds/rec (18.1) (min 20 rec)
  • MIN ranks 29th in yards allowed/rec (11.5)
  • Deebo saw just 2 tgts last week but 8 carries for 79:1 TD
  • 4 straight w/o 10+ tgts (1, 5, 9, 9)
  • Rushing last 2: 15:115:2 TDs
  • 8 Total TDs (5 rec, 3 rush)
  • 1st in YAC (525), 2nd in rec yds/g (99.4)
  • Samuel ($7.9k, season high) is the 4th highest priced WR (Kupp, Adams, Jefferson)
  • Aiyuk tgts first 5 games: (4, 3, 6, 2, 0) // Last 5: (7, 4, 8, 7, 1)
  • 2 TDs in past 3
  • RZ tgts: Deebo (8) // Aiyuk (7) // Kittle (3)
  • MIN 20+ DK pts allowed: (WK 11: Davante-33.5 + MVS-25.3) // (WK 9: Hollywood-23.6) // (WK 8: Cooper-29.2 + Ceedee-20.2, also Wilson w/ 18.8) // (WK 3: DK-25.7) // (WK 2: Rondale Moore-27.4) // (WK 1: Ja’marr Chase-23.90)
  • MIN is 30th in DK pts allowed to WRs (43.9)

George Kittle:

  • TD in 3 straight (after going 11 straight w/o a TD)
  • Tgts:rec:yds since return from IR: (4:4:34) // (7:5:50) // (8:6:101)
  • Kittle has caught 3 of 3 RZ tgts for TDs
  • $6.4k in salary is a season high & the highest TE on slate
  • MIN ranks 4th in DK pts allowed to TEs (8.8/g)

SF RBs:

  • Elijah Mitchell could return (broken finger)
  • Mitchell rush atts w/ Jimmy: (27, 8+5 rec, 18, 18, 17, 19)
  • w/o Mitchell, atts were spread out last week: (Wilson-19, Sermon-10, Deebo-8) 
  • SF ranks 8th in rush yds/g (123.2) & 16th in yds/rush (4.2)
  • MIN ranks 27th in rush yds allowed/g (127.0) & last in yds/rush (4.8)
  • Mitchell ($5.4k) is the cheapest he’s been in 3 games
  • Wilson is $5.3k this week // He was $5k when he returned from IR 
  • He’s went 29:78 yds the past two games
  • MIN allows the 11th most DK pts to RBs (24.7)

Kirk Cousins:

  • vs SF past two: 2019 Playoffs (21:29:172 yds: 1 TD, 1 INT 9.88 DK pts) // 2018 (20:36:224:2 TDs, 20.36 DK pts)
  • Cousins had his 4th 300+ pass yd game & 4th 3 pass TD game last week
  • He has 25+ DK pts in 5 games 
  • MIN ranks 9th in pass atts/g (37.6) // SF allows the 3rd least (31.3)
  • Cousins has 30+ pass atts in all but one & 40+ in 2 games
  • His price ($6.3k) is the highest he’s been since WK 5
  • SF allows the 3rd least pass yds/g (202.4), 5th least pass TDs, have the 2nd fewest INTs (4) & allow the 16th most DK pts/g to QBs (19.8)

Justin Jefferson/Adam Thielen:

  • Thielen has a TD in all but 3 games (8 total)
  • RZ tgts: Thielen (12) // Jefferson (16)
  • Rec of 20+ yds: Jefferson 17 (T-1st, Kupp) // Thielen 11 (T-13th)
  • Jefferson’s price (8.3k) has went up 5 weeks in a row
  • He’s 4th in rec yds/g (94.4) & 9th in air yds (1,060)
  • DK pts last 4: Jefferson (40.2, 25.9, 17.0, 4.1) // Thielen (22.2, 11.5, 8.6, 19.8) 
  • Theilen ($6.7k) has been in the upper $6k’s the past 4 weeks
  • He has one 20+ DK pt game & 2 others w/ 30+
  • SF allows 34.7 pts/g to WRs (13th fewest)

Dalvin Cook:

  • Cook’s ($8.1k) scored 20+ DK pts in 4 of 8  (22.5, 20.8, 25.3, 21.4) but hasn’t reached 3.5x salary this season
  • He’s $1k cheaper than he was to start the season
  • Cook atts last 5: (22, 24, 17, 18, 29)
  • Of those, the only games w/o 20+ atts were in losses
  • Mattison atts last 5: (3, 4, 4, 2, 3)
  • Four RBs have scored 20+ vs SF: WK 1 (Swift 25.0 & Williams 24.4) // WK 7 (Taylor 22.0) // WK 9 (Conner-40.3)
  • SF allows the 12th least DK pts to RBs (23.1) but 13th most rush yds/g (115.9), 3rd most rush TDs/g (1.3) & their opponents rush play % is the 8th highest (44.13)

Tyler Conklin:

  • Conklin tgts last 4: (3, 5, 7, 7)
  • He has 2 of 10 w/ 15+ DK pts, both of those w/ a TD
  • His price ($3.7k) came down after a season high $3.9k last week 
  • SF allows the 6th least DK pts to TEs (8.9)

Kickoff Sunday, Nov 28th 8:20pm Eastern

Browns (
22) at

Ravens (
25)

Over/Under 47.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Browns Run D
20th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
11th DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
16th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Ravens Run D
6th DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
19th DVOA/27th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday night football has the Browns visiting the Ravens in a game with a decent 47 point total and Baltimore favored by 3.5. I’d actually be somewhat surprised if the Browns hit their team total here, as they’ve been held to under 20 points in five of their last six games, but hey, football is weird.

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Baltimore

On the Baltimore side, the running back situation is actually somewhat clear, which is odd to say for a Ravens game this year. Devonta Freeman is their main guy and . . .

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Kickoff Monday, Nov 29th 8:15pm Eastern

Hawks (
24.25) at

WFT (
22.25)

Over/Under 46.5

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Key Matchups
Seahawks Run D
8th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Washington Run O
21st DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
27th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Washington Pass O
21st DVOA/21st Yards per pass
Washington Run D
10th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Washington Pass D
28th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
10th DVOA/23rd Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 12 wraps up with the Seahawks visiting Washington for a matchup with . . . the Football Team (yes, seriously, it’s been a year and that’s still their name). This brings us two-thirds of the way through the regular season, and it’s flying by. This matchup has a 46.5 total with an exactly even split, which is one of the only times I’ve ever seen that (in fact, I cannot actually remember seeing it before, but I’m sure I must have somewhere). Let’s explore.

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