Kickoff Sunday, Nov 28th 1:00pm Eastern

Eagles (
24.5) at

Giants (
20.5)

Over/Under 45.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Eagles Run D
16th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
29th DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
21st DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
31st DVOA/31st Yards per pass
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
17th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
15th DVOA/7th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324 >>
  • The Giants put Jason Garrett out to pasture 
  • Saquon Barkley’s playing time is likely to increase 
  • The Eagles have held Jalen Hurts under 25 attempts the past four weeks 
  • Miles Sanders has sneaky upside 

How philadelphia Will Try To Win ::

The Eagles come into this game riding a two-game winning streak against the Broncos and Saints. Still sitting at 5-6, this Eagles team feels a year or two away from being good. Nick Sirianni has his offense coming out fast (3rd in situational neutral pace) but is willing to slow way down (22nd in pace when ahead) if protecting a lead. His approach has caused Eagles games to have a wide variance in outcomes. Games that stay close play out like track meets (especially against other fast-paced teams), and games where the Eagles take a lead grind to a halt (especially against other slow-paced teams).

This week they draw a Giants squad that has been better against the pass than most people realize (11th in DVOA) while getting smashed on the ground (30th in DVOA). The Giants set up as a run funnel defense which lines up perfectly for the Eagles, who decided to change their offensive philosophy in Week 8. Since then, they’ve limited Jalen Hurts passing attempts to 14/17/23/24. Those games have resulted in three comfortable wins and one close loss, so there is no reason to think the Eagles are going to depart from their newfound formula. Expect the Eagles to come out using an up-tempo running game and to stick with the run while declining in pace as they build a lead.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

Oh, Jason Garrett. How do you keep getting work? Let’s hope this firing is your last, and you ride off into the sunset, taking your place among a pack of clowns (John Fox/Jeff Fisher/Adam Gase/Jason Garrett) that have made millions of dollars being worse at calling a football game than a decent 12-year-old Madden player. Is the joke on them or us? Dez Bryant delivered this gem after finding out Garrett had been fired: “Kadarius Toney, you will get to experience the love and joy for football throughout your career.”

The Giants have disappointed relative to their talent (most Garrett-led teams do) and have posted a 3-7 record. Joe Judge hasn’t been publicly named play-caller, and the best information to work with is Judge saying that play calling will be a collaborative in-house effort. What does that mean exactly? No one knows, but it’s provocative. Will the Giants have a war council where three guys vote on the play? Will they appoint a chairman of the play calling committee and assign subcommittees to conduct studies on offense and defense? Will we finally smell what Freddie Kitchens (rumored to be involved) is cooking? It’s hard to know, but the Giants have at least been playing fast (10th in situational neutral pace), and since it’s hard to change your entire offense midweek, their pace will likely stay in a similar range. The Eagles are slightly below average against the run and pass (18th/20th in DVOA). With no clear path of least resistance and no idea who will be calling the plays, figuring out exactly what this offense will look like requires a ton of guesswork. Expect the Giants to come out playing quickly to show aggression and convince their fan base they still have fight left in them.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

This game has a middling 45.5 total that feels like a hedge based on not knowing how the Giants will play offensively. The one thing that is certain is that the Eagles are the better side of the ball and are likely to control this game. In games the Eagles control, we can expect Hurts to stay under 25 attempts and the pace of play to slow down in the second half. The most likely game flow has the Eagles pulling ahead on the ground with time-crunching drives. No one really knows how the Giants will respond. There is a wide range of outcomes based on who ends up calling the plays.


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DFS+ Interpretation ::