Jets (

20.75) at
Texans (

23.75)

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Mike White popped for COVID early in the week and Joe Flacco was deemed a close contact, leaving a now-healthy Zach Wilson as the starter this week, possibly backed up by Josh Johnson, pending Flacco’s ability to make it off the league’s COVID list prior to the game.
• It isn’t often we see two teams that rank in the bottom five in both yards allowed per carry and yards allowed per pass, but that is exactly what we get here.
• Michael Carter will miss the next 2-3 weeks with a sprained ankle, opening the door for Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson to handle backfield reps against the Texans.
• Corey Davis got in a limited session on Wednesday before being downgraded to DNP on Thursday.
• Both teams rank bottom ten in pass rate faced this season.
• Both teams rank in the bottom ten in situation-neutral pace of play but top ten in second half pace of play (largely driven by game flow).

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The carousel of quarterbacks continues this week for the Jets as Zach Wilson makes his return to the lineup. The biggest thing we need to understand with this offense is that they attempt to be a balanced unit if allowed the opportunity to do so (middle of the pack 56% situation-neutral pass rate over the first five weeks of the season with a healthy Zach Wilson at quarterback). So, while their overall pass rates lead the league, it has largely been a function of routine negative game scripts. Against the fellow 2-8 Texans, it is likeliest the Jets approach the game plan with a balanced approach in mind, not reverting to excessive pass volume unless forced to do so. With all of that in mind, Zach Wilson attempted between 32 and 38 passes in each of his five fully healthy games to start the year, failing to crack 300 pass yards in every game. Big picture, the Jets have a ton of moving parts for this game, as the team gets Zach Wilson back, loses Michael Carter to a sprained ankle, and have seen “alpha” wide receiver Corey Davis downgraded as the week has progressed due to an injury suffered during individual drills on Wednesday. Through injury and ineffective play, the Jets have seen their 11-personnel usage rates increase through the latter portion of the season (this will be important when we discuss the pass game below).

As previously mentioned, Michael Carter will miss this contest due to an ankle sprain sustained in the team’s Week 11 game, leaving Ty Johnson and Tevin Coleman to handle the backfield. I’d expect Johnson to lead the team in snap rate and opportunities this week, likely thrust into a 60-65% opportunity share. La’Mical Perine should find himself active once more but I wouldn’t expect anything more than emergency status as a player that has seemingly fallen out of favor with this coaching staff. The matchup yields a “high for the Jets” 4.2 net-adjusted line yards metric against an opponent that can be beaten on the ground. Houston has allowed 25.9 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, and the Jets should remain balanced for as long as this game remains close, giving increased relevance to a backfield not typically thought to carry fantasy utility.

Similar to the quarterback position, there are a lot of moving parts with respect to expected snap rates, utilization, and alignments for this pass-catching corps. Ryan Griffin maintains his role as lead tight end, which hasn’t led to more than 77% of the offensive snaps since Week 5 with Tyler Kroft likely done for the year with a lung laceration (uhh, what?). Corey Davis, the typical lead wide receiver on this offense, was downgraded on Thursday to DNP from a limited showing on Wednesday, apparently for an injury sustained during individual drills. We’ll need more clarity on Friday, but consider him legitimately questionable due to the in-week groin injury. Should Davis miss, we’re likely to see the Elijah Moore coming out party continue this week, as he would be the player likeliest to see a further increase to snap rate and usage. The biggest positive to come from camp Moore last week was his utilization. After playing from the slot for a majority of his snaps to start his young career, we saw the Jets move him all over the formation in Week 11, increasing his perimeter snap rate along the way. Jamison Crowder plays almost primarily from the slot, meaning perimeter snaps for Elijah Moore is a substantial boost to his fantasy prospectus. Denzel Mims remains on the league’s COVID list and is questionable to make it back in time for Week 12’s contest, meaning we’re likely to see Keelan Cole and Jeff Smith mix in for the remainder of the perimeter wide receiver snaps should both Corey Davis and Mims miss here.

How houston Will Try To Win ::

The Texans, man. You’d be hard pressed to find an organization that is run worse than the Texans across all major professional sports. The Texans spent significant monies this offseason bringing in three running backs in Mark Ingram II, Phillip Lindsay, and Rex Burkhead to join David Johnson (that’s another story altogether, as he came over in the fabled DeAndre Hopkins deal). Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay are no longer with the team, leaving Rex Burkhead as the primary early-down grinder (which is laughable in and of itself, as Burkhead has largely been utilized as a pass game piece throughout his career), and David Johnson as the primary third-down and passing down “specialist.” Woof. Similar to the Jets, Houston would prefer to run the football for as long as they are allowed to (56% situation-neutral pass rate on the season), showing an increased propensity to turn to the air as the season has progressed (up to a 69% pass rate when trailing this season). Tyrod Taylor, Rex Burkhead, David Johnson, Chris Conley, Chris Moore, and Danny Amendola are expected to be large contributing members of this offense. Lolz.

As previously discussed, we should expect Rex Burkhead to operate as the primary early-down grinder while David Johnson acts at the change of pace and primary pass-down back. What a world to be alive in. The matchup on the ground yields a laughable 3.79 net-adjusted line yards metric largely due to Houston’s run-blocking ineptitude. Expect Johnson to lead the backfield in snap rate but Burkhead to lead the backfield in rush attempts in what shapes up to a low floor, low ceiling backfield overall. Finally, Tyrod Taylor has simply taken over the rushing upside near the goal line, plunging for two additional scores last week.

Fresh off an upset victory over the injury-riddled Titans, the Tyrod Taylor-led Texans come into Week 12 with pass attempts of 24, 33, and 43 in Taylor’s three fully healthy games. Talk about a wide range of outcomes, eh? That simply goes to emphasize the wide range of outcomes from each of these teams this week, as far as volume is concerned. What we know is this: Brandin Cooks is the only pass-catcher in a near every-down role, with Nico Collins, Chris Conley, Chris Moore, Danny Amendola, and a tight end room consisting of Pharoah Brown, Jordan Akins, Antony Auclair, and Brevin Jordan all splitting snaps and work. As such, no single pass-catcher can be considered to carry any semblance of floor. Cooks has six games of seven or fewer targets, and four games of 11 or more – wide range of outcomes alert.

Likeliest Game Flow :: 

What happens when you pit two stoppable forces against two movable objects? Who knows? And that’s exactly what we have with this game. Enter the “wide range of outcomes” talk. What we do know is each of these offenses should largely be considered conservative units, meaning it would likely require one jumping out to a two-score lead to force the other into increased aggression. This also means that individual play-maker volume is extremely hard to predict, with Elijah Moore and Brandin Cooks the likeliest to carry at least some semblance of locked-in volume. The likeliest scenario yields a game environment where each team adopts a conservative approach, similar to what we saw out of the Texans/Dolphins game a few weeks back. When trying to visualize alternate game flows, it becomes rather difficult to picture what outside force would alter this approach from either team. Just a whole bunch of “meh” here.

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