Kickoff Monday, Sep 19th 7:15pm Eastern

Titans (
18.75) at

Bills (
28.75)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Titans Run D
20th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
32nd DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
26th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Bills Run D
5th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
27th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
2nd DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
8th DVOA/24th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Monday night brings us not one but two football games, for extra Showdown goodness! The first one looks like fun as the Titans visit the Bills for a game with a 47.5 total (which opened at 52, lol). Buffalo is favored by a massive 10 points here after Tennessee’s crummy Week 1 showing, which is, frankly, hard to argue with. Let’s explore.

Buffalo

On the Bills side, we know Josh Allen is basically the RB1 but we also have Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, and James Cook in the backfield. In Week 1, Singletary played 59% of the snaps and saw 10 RB opportunities (in a game the Bills won by 21 points, no less), while Moss played 37% of the snaps and saw 12 opportunities, including six targets. James Cook played three snaps, had one carry, fumbled it, and was never heard from again. Presumably, Cook will carve out a role this season but there’s nothing that points to it happening this week . . . except that the NFL is weird, and Cook is likely to be extremely low-owned so he’s worthwhile as a tourney flier. Singletary and Moss fall into the normal “Buffao backfield is a shitshow” situation. Neither got a lot of work despite the Bills absolutely curb-stomping the defending Super Bowl champs last week so it’s hard to see what would point to more work this week, except that we know there will be games in which Buffalo runs more, and we know that running backs on good offenses can put up strong scores when touchdown variance swings their way. Singletary is the starter and is fairly priced at $7,400, while Moss feels a bit underpriced down at $3,600. There’s another factor that could point in their favor here, which is that Gabe Davis is questionable with an ankle injury (late week downgrades are never good). My interest in the Buffalo backfield will go up a fair bit of Davis misses, while I expect the field will flock to their receiving corps, leaving the RBs as good tournament leverage points.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, Buffalo should be able to do what they want against a mediocre Titans secondary. In Week 1, Stef Diggs reminded the NFL world that he is in fact an elite receiver who just ran really poorly on touchdown variance last season, and he’s in a smash spot here. He’s an amazing play and an expensive one. Assuming Davis misses (remember that guys who are downgraded late in the week usually miss), Isaiah McKenzie should be in for a bit more work, but be wary here of thinking that he’s suddenly a smash play – he’ll be out there but he’s not likely to run on the perimeter where Davis plays, and he may well continue splitting time in the slot with Jamison Crowder. My guess here, which is pure conjecture on my part, is that Crowder’s 31% snap count last week was driven at least partially by McKenzie entering the week with a questionable tag. I think McKenzie is the better receiver, I think Buffalo believes that as well, and I expect his role to grow as the season goes on. Should Davis miss, the most logical replacement on the perimeter would be Jake Kumerow. Kumerow would be on the field a lot, and he’s just $200, but we can’t expect him to earn the same kind of target share as Davis. He’s going to project really well but he’s also going to be somewhat of a fragile play. At what would likely be enormous ownership, I would personally be taking an underweight position on him. At tight end, Dawson Knox only saw two targets in Week 1. Better times should be coming for Knox, and his market share of targets should creep up a bit with no Davis, but keep in mind that Knox is generally a 3-6 target kind of guy who’s going to need a touchdown to pay off. You can include Tommy Sweeney and Khalil Shakir (if Davis is out) in MME pools as thin punt options.

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OVERVIEW

  • Total opened at 51 but has dipped to 47.5 (fifth highest in Week 2)
  • That drop has primarily come on the TEN side, where their implied total has dipped by 2.5 pts
  • BUF’s implied total of 28.75 is the second highest of Week 2
  • 10 pt spread is the fourth widest
  • Mike Vrabel’s Titans rankings in fewest seconds per snap since 2018: 29th // 22nd // 5th // 27th // 28th (after Week 1)
  • Sean McDermott’s Bills rankings since 2017: 5th // 20th // 12th // 27th // 16th // 32nd (after Week 1)

Ryan Tannehill

  • Tannehill (CPT $13,800/FLEX $9,200) ranks 4th in PFF passing grade after Week 1
  • Per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer, he ranks 6th in Pass EPA/Play, 4th in Adj. Yards/Att., Air Yards/Game, & 6th in ADoT
  • As a road dog for the Titans, Tannehill has scored 25+ DK pts once in 12 games: 27/39:331:1:2 passing & 4:38:1 rushing
  • He’s played Buffalo once in each of the past two seasons
  • Game logs: 18/29:216:0:1 & 2:3:1 for 13.94 DK pts // 21/28:195:3 & 4:42:1 for 30 DK pts
  • BUF ranked first in DK ppg allowed to QBs last year (third after Week 1)
  • Only five opposing QBs have hit 20+ DK pts vs. BUF since 2021
  • Notable scores allowed: Tom Brady 33.12 // Patrick Mahomes 43.02

TEN Passing Attack

  • After Week 1, PFF ranked the TEN offensive line 13th
  • Week 1 snap share: Robert Woods 70.8% // Geoff Swaim 69.2% // Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 67.7% // Austin Hooper 61.5% // Kyle Philips 46.2% // Treylon Burks 36.9%
  • Target share: Philips 27.3% // Burks 15.2% // Swaim 12.1% // Hooper 6.1% // Westbrook 6.1% // Woods 6.1%
  • Target counts: Philips 9 // Burks 5 // Swaim 4 // Hooper 2 // Westbrook 2 // Woods 2
  • Philips (CPT $7,500/FLEX $5,000) led TEN in slot usage in his first career game
  • His Week 1 line: 6/9:66 for 11.6 DK pts
  • Burks (CPT $9,300/FLEX $6,200) Week 1 line: 3/5:55 for 8.5 DK pts
  • Woods (CPT $9,900/FLEX $6,600) Week 1 line: 1/2:13 for 2.3 DK pts
  • Westbrook (CPT $6,600/FLEX $4,400) Week 1 line: 1/2:13 for 2.3 DK pts
  • BUF ranked first in DK ppg allowed to WRs last year (26th after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Mike Evans 21.1 // Chris Godwin 23.5 // Kendrick Bourne 28.1 // Tyreek Hill 34.8 // Cooper Kupp 34.8
  • Swaim (CPT $4,500/FLEX $3,000) Week 1 line: 3/4:19 for 4.9 DK pts
  • Swaim has yet to hit 13 DK pts in his career
  • Hooper (CPT $5,700/FLEX $3,800) Week 1 line: 1/2:6 for 1.6 DK pts
  • Hooper has notable scores of 17.6 DK pts in 2021 & 15.1 in 2020
  • BUF ranked fourth in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (14th after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores allowed: Logan Thomas 13.2 // Travis Kelce 17.7 // Kelce 23.6

TEN Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Derrick Henry 67.7% // Dontrell Hilliard 18.5%
  • Target share: Hilliard 12.1% // Henry 3%
  • Target counts: Hilliard 4 // Henry 1
  • Attempts: Henry 21 // Hilliard 2
  • Each RB had a single red zone target
  • Henry (CPT $16,500/FLEX $11,000) had the lone red zone rush attempt
  • As a road dog, Henry averages 19.13 DK pts since 2018 in 16 games, with several notable scores: 28.9 // 29.32 // 30.4 // 41.5 // 50.7
  • Three out of five of those scores happened as a dog with at least a five pt spread
  • Hilliard (CPT $7,200/FLEX $4,800) Week 1 line: 2:8 rushing & 3/4:61:2 receiving for 21.9 DK pts
  • With Henry hurt from Weeks 9-18, Hilliard averaged the fourth most targets per game on the team (3.2)
  • Including Week 1, he has three career 15+ DK pt games (out of eight total games) but only Week 1’s 21.9 effort happened with Henry active
  • BUF ranked 16th in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (fourth after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Damien Harris 20.1 // Leonard Fournette 26.2 // Harris 31.3 // Derrick Henry 38.6 // Jonathan Taylor 56.4

Josh Allen

  • Allen (CPT $18,900/FLEX $12,600) ranks first in PFF passing grade after Week 1
  • Per 4for4, after Week 1, Allen ranks second in Pass EPA/Play, fourth in Completion Percentage Over Expected, & eighth in Adj. YPA
  • In nine career September games as a favorite, he’s scored 33+ DK pts five times (three times in 2020, once in 2021, & last week)
  • In four career games vs. TEN: 10.18 // 18.32 // 18.46 // 32.72 (last year)
  • TEN ranked 18th in DK ppg allowed to QBs last year (18th after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing QB scores allowed: Russell Wilson 26.32 // Davis Mills 30.24 // Josh Allen 32.72 // Kyler Murray 34.56

BUF Passing Attack

  • After Week 1, PFF ranked the BUF offensive line at 23rd
  • Week 1 snap share: Gabe Davis 98.3% // Dawson Knox 86.4% // Stefon Diggs 64.4% // Isaiah McKenzie 44.1% // Jamison Crowder 30.5%
  • Target share: Diggs 29% // Davis 16.1% // Crowder 12.9% // McKenzie 9.7% // Knox 6.5%
  • Target counts: Diggs 9 // Davis 5 // Crowder 4 // McKenzie 3 // Knox 2
  • Davis (CPT $13,200/FLEX $8,800) is expected to miss this game with an injury occurring on Saturday
  • Diggs (CPT $17,100/FLEX $11,400) ranked 14th in target share in Week 1, tied for first in end zone target share, eighth in air yard share, 10th in WOPR, sixth in yards per route run, & 17th in targets per route run (per 4for4)
  • He averages 20.27 DK ppg as a Bill when favored, 15.23 when the underdog
  • Scored 25+ DK pts in nine out of 39 games as a Bill
  • Crowder (CPT $7,800/FLEX $5,200) ranked eighth in TPRR in Week 1
  • His Week 1 line: 3/4:28 for 5.8 DK pts
  • In 41 career games since the 2019 season, he’s scored 20+ DK pts nine times
  • McKenzie (CPT $8,400/FLEX $5,600) Week 1 line: 2/3:19:1 for 9.9 DK pts
  • In 43 career games, he’s scored 15+ DK pts three times: 16.9 // 30.5 // 32.4
  • TEN ranked 31st in DK ppg allowed to WRs last year (14th after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores allowed since 2021: DeAndre Hopkins 26.3 // Michael Pittman 30.6 // Deebo Samuel 31.1 // Tyler Lockett 34.8 // Danny Amendola 35.3
  • Knox (CPT $8,700/FLEX $5,800) Week 1 line: 1/2:5 for 1.5 DK pts
  • In 47 career games, Knox has scored 15+ DK pts seven times
  • TEN ranked seventh in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (first after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores allowed since 2021: Tyler Higbee 10.1 // Dan Arnold 11.4 // Travis Kelce 13.5 // C.J. Uzomah 14.1

BUF Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Devin Singletary 59.3% // Zack Moss 37.3% // James Cook 5.1%
  • Target share: Moss 19.4% // Singletary 6.5%
  • Targets: Moss 6 // Singletary 2
  • Attempts: Singletary 8 // Moss 6 // Cook 1
  • Red zone touches: Josh Allen 2 // Singletary 1 // Moss 1
  • Singletary (CPT $11,100/FLEX $7,400) Week 1 line: 8:48 rushing & 2/2:14 receiving for 8.2 DK pts
  • In 21 games as a home favorite, he’s scored 20+ DK pts four times
  • Moss (CPT $5,400/FLEX $3,600) Week 1 line: 6:15 rushing & 6/6:21 receiving for 8.6 DK pts
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts three times in 27 career games
  • Cook FLEX $1,400 (be honest, no one is playing him at CPT) fumbled on his first snap and only saw two more snaps after that (no more touches)
  • TEN ranked first in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (32nd after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores allowed since 2021: Mark Ingram 20.8 // Jonathan Taylor 21.2 // Joe Mixon 22.5 // James Robinson 24.7 // Saquon Barkley 36.4