Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Buccaneers list ten players on their initial injury report. In contrast, the Saints list 11 – New Orleans’ report seems littered with “load management” as 10 of the 11 players were listed as limited participants, whereas Tampa Bay could have some real issues here.
- The story for this one starts with each team’s offensive lines, as the Buccaneers performed extremely well in Week 1 even through multiple injuries, while the Saints interior is a massive point of weakness.
- The Buccaneers are likely to assert control in the trenches, which is the starting point for the matchups in this game.
- The New Orleans offense looked stagnant in Week 1, which makes sense considering the multitude of moving pieces for this team during the offseason.
How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::
The Buccaneers injury report was a sight to behold on Wednesday, for all the wrong reasons. Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Tristan Wirfs, Breshad Perriman, and Tom Brady (not injury related) were all listed as limited participants, while all of Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Russell Gage, Zyon McCollum, and Donovan Smith missed practice entirely. The presence of two members of an already battered offensive line and the top five wide receivers on the depth chart on the opening injury report is notable, particularly considering a matchup with a Saints defense that notoriously plays this team extremely tight. The full practice report is not yet available for Thursday (writing this Thursday morning), but initial reports indicate that Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones were all not present during the portion of practice open to the media. The downgrade from “limited” to “DNP” could be telling for Evans, while consecutive missed practices for Julio and Godwin paint an ominous picture. As things currently stand, I would tentatively expect Evans and Julio to suit up, while Godwin should be considered a long shot to be active on game day. Tampa Bay surprisingly ended Week 1 with the eighth lowest pass rate over expectation, which is likely more of a nod to the lack of pressure from a Dallas team that mustered all of three points offensively combined with limited repetitions from quarterback Tom Brady in the offseason program. That said, I’d expect pass rate values to increase as the year progresses.
Leonard Fournette continued a commanding share of the backfield duties for the Buccaneers in Week 1, amassing a hefty (pun not intended) 76% snap rate, 76% (!!!) route participation rate, and 100% of the two-minute snaps. Those underlying metrics mean we shouldn’t read too far into the fact that Fournette saw only a 7% team target market share on a lowly 9% targets per route run value (as in, Fournette is likely to see extremely solid receiving numbers this year with that level of route participation). For comparison, Dalvin Cook, Darrel Henderson, and Christian McCaffrey were the only three running backs to surpass Fournette’s 76% route participation rate in Week 1. That’s elite company, people (also, sidenote, shout out to Henderson… my gawd). Rachaad White ran well behind Fournette, accounting for just 17 offensive snaps (27%) and eight running back opportunities, seven of which came in the second half with the game already in hand. That means that Fournette’s gawdy underlying metrics likely reflect lower than actuality. Most notably, Giovani Bernard and Ke’Shawn Vaughn didn’t sniff the field. The New Orleans defensive line and linebacker unit also aren’t what they used to be, coming off 5.39 adjusted line yards surrendered and 5.5 yards per carry to the 31-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson behind a middling Atlanta offensive line.
It’s difficult to write up this section for a Buccaneers pass offense with all five of its top wide receivers out of practice, but here we are. There’s only one scenario where I expect a shadow out of New Orleans defensive backs, and that’s if Mike Evans plays. Marshon Lattimore has held Evans in his back pocket for their entire careers. For example, Evans averages just 51.4 yards per game against the Saints and 81.7 yards per game against all other opponents. Lattimore is also typically only in shadow coverage on large-bodied, X-type wide receivers, of which Mike Evans is. Any other scenario would likely leave Lattimore to his side of the field. I tentatively expect Evans, Julio, Perriman, and Gage to go, which could serve to increase the target market share of Fournette, Julio, and Gage (with Perriman likely to be used sparingly) should Lattimore be charged with shadow coverage on Evans. Cameron Brate, Cade Otten, and Ko Kieft (?) split snaps at the tight end position, notably leaving veteran Kyle Rudolph to rot on the inactive list.
How new orleans Will Try To Win ::
By LexMiraglia10 >>
Overview:
- Tampa Brady Bucs have gotten the best of most teams, but are 0-3 vs LAR and 1-4 vs NOR
- Winston tore his ACL vs TB last year after a hot start to the game in his first #revengegame
- No Sean Payton or Bruce Arians this time around
Jameis Winston:
- Winston’s first real game action since his ACL tear last year started slow, but he finished with 269:2 thanks to a lot of production in comeback mode (including 40 yd play to Landry on final drive)
- Winston’s pass att as NOR QB: 20 // 22 // 21 // 23 // 30 // 35 // 34
- 2021 TB faced the most pass att/g, allowing 12/19 QBs to throw for 250+
- DAL threw 42 pass att in W1 vs TB
- 2021 TB had the 2nd highest rate of pressure and highest blitz rate per PFR
- TB sacked DAL QBs 4 times in W1
- Winston was sacked 4 times in W1 vs ATL
NOR WRs:
- 2021 TB allowed 18 WRs of 60+ yds; 6 WRs of 100+ yds
- 2021 TB allowed the 4th most WR rec and the 11th most WR yds on the 3rd most WR tg
- DAL WRs vs TB in W1: Lamb (2:29) // Brown (5:68) // Houston (2:16)
- Landry’s last 6 games: 6:111 // 5:41:1 // 4:55 // 4:43 // 6:75:1 // 7:114
- Thomas’s average targets/g by season: 8.1 // 9.3 // 9.2 // 11.6 // 7.9
- Thomas received 8 tg in W1 vs ATL
- Saints top WR vs Bowles TB Def: Thomas (11:182:2) // Thomas (10:114:1) // Sanders (3:15:1) // Thomas (5:51) // Tre’Quan (3:31:1) // Callaway (6:112)
Alvin Kamara:
- TB allowed the fewest RB rush yds in each of the last three seasons under Bowles
- In 16 games in 2019, Gurley & AK were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and they combined for 17 rec in those 2 games
- In 20 games in 2020, Kamara, CMC, & Cook were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and AK & CMC both needed 2 TDs to get there
- In 19 games in 2021, Patterson, Gaskin, Herbert, & Gibson were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and the first 3 combined for 20 rec while Gibson scored 2 TDs
- In Week 1 of 2022, TB held DAL RBs to combined yds of 49 (Elliott) & 22 (Pollard)
- TB allowed the 2nd most RB rec in 2021 after allowing the most in 2020 (5th most RB rec yds allowed 2021)
- Kamara vs this Bowles TB defense::
- Rushing: 16:62 // 13:75 // 12:16:1 // 9:40:1 // 18:85 // 19:61:1 // 11:18
- Receiving: 6:42 // 10:47 // 5:51:1 // 5:9 // 3:20 // 3:15 // 2:13
- AK is the only RB to score 20+ DK pts twice vs Bowles TB def, but he still scored just 22.2 & 23.7 DK pts in those games
- In 2021, AK’s total touches without Ingram: 24 // 14 // 28 // 26 // 24 // 31 // 32 // 19 // 32
- In 2021, AK’s total touches with Ingram: 23 // 20 // 17 // 17
- AK had 9 rush att & 4 tg in Week 1 vs ATL
Tom Brady:
- Tampa Brady vs NOR: 239:2:2, rush TD // 209:0:3 // 199:2, rush TD // 375:4:2 // 214:0:1
- That’s 8 INT in 5 games, including multiple dropped INTs in the only game INT-free
- Brady has all 10 total TDs in the 3 games in NOR Superdome (0 in the 2 games in TB)
- Brady sacks in those games: 3 // 3 // 1 // 3 // 4
- Mariota racked up 287 total yds in the first game vs this new-look NOR defense
- Brady went for 212:1:1 in W1 vs DAL, working with new some weapons
TB WRs:
- Evans career vs Lattimore Saints: 1:13 (6 tg) // 5:55 (13) // 7:147:1 (7) // 4:86 (6) // 0:0 (3) // 1:2:1 (4) // 4:64 (6) // 1:3:1 (3) // 2:48:1 (4) // 1:14 (1)
- That’s DK pts of: 2.3 // 10.5 // 30.7 // 12.6 // 0 // 7.2 // 10.4 // 7.3 // 12.8 // 2.4
- Julio has played the Saints 13 times since 2014, recording 90+ yds in 10 of them (including a stretch of 9/10)
- NOR allowed 5:74 to Drake London and 2:19 to Kyle Pitts in W1
- NOR CB2 Paulson Adebo is Q after missing W1
- TB tg in W1: Evans (7) // Julio (5) // Godwin (3) // Gage (2)
Leonard Fournette:
- Fournette’s 2021 season::
- 15+ touches in 13/15 g // 6 g of 60+ rush yds (5 of 80+)
- 3+ rec in 14/15 g // 5+ rec in 8/15 g // 40+ rec yds in 7 g
- Fournette in W1: 21:127, 2:10
- Patterson last week joined Miles Sanders (in late 2020) as the only two RBs to rush for 100+ yds vs NOR since middle of 2017
- Following a trend of NOR being extremely tough vs RBs since 2018 ::
- NOR ranked 1st in def rush DVOA in 2021
- Only RBs with 50+ rush yds vs 2021 NOR: CMC (24:72:1) // Saquon (13:52:1) // Gibson (20:60:2) // Sanders (16:94) // Pollard (7:71:1) // RoJo (8:63) // Hubbard (17:55:1)
- RBs to score 20+ DK pts vs NOR since 2018: Saquon (22, 29.6) // Latavius (20.5) // Zeke (25.6) // CMC (34.3, 22.8, 26, 24.7) // Mostert (24.9) // Dalvin (28.0) // Sanders (32.6) // Fournette (21.7) // Gibson (21.2) // Patterson (22.6, 25.6)
- That’s 15 RB scores of 20+ DK pts allowed in the last 71 games, and just 7 of 25+
- 14/15 scored a TD /// 6/15 scored 2 TDs /// 10/15 had 5+ rec /// 13/15 had 6+ DK rec pts
- Fournette vs NOR in this stretch: 72, 46 (JAC) // 5, 14 // 0, 41 // 63, 44:1 // 26, 17 // 34, 33
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