XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 2 kicks off with the Chargers visiting the Chiefs in a 54.5 total game, which is the highest of the week, wow, that’s a lot of points. Kansas City is favored by 3.5 so overall we’re expecting some offensive fireworks here from two teams who combined for 68 total points in Week 1. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

Kansas City

We’ll start with the Chiefs and their run game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a nice game on limited volume, rushing seven times for 42 yards and catching all three of his targets for two touchdowns. CEH was the clear lead back early in the game, spelled by Jerick McKinnon, who saw eight opportunities of his own. Preseason hype-monster Isaiah Pacheco saw 12 opportunities, leading the team, but 10 of those came on the game’s final two drives when the Chiefs were up by a ton and were pulling their starters. I’m seeing some Pacheco hype out there, and personally, I’m not buying it. I think he’s a reasonable talent and it’s not impossible that his role grows throughout the season but since almost all of his Week 1 work came in garbage time, and CEH performed well, I don’t think there’s any changing of the guard happening yet. I’m viewing CEH as the RB1 (albeit with no realistic shot at 20+ carries because that’s not how the Chiefs offense operates), McKinnon as the RB2, and Pacheco as the RB3. CEH is slightly overpriced for his likeliest workload (I’d expect to see him in the $7k range), McKinnon looks like a screaming value at $2,600, while Pacheco is overpriced at $4,400; and he could carry a decent amount of ownership based on his Week 1 performance so it isn’t even a “pay up to be contrarian” situation. Personally, I’m X’ing out Pacheco and aiming to be overweight on McKinnon, absent news later in the week that changes things. 

GAME OVERVIEW ::

By Hilow >>

• Both teams ranked in the top seven in pass rate over expectation and pass rate over expectation on first down in Week 1.
• Interesting setup where both offenses project to lean pass heavy while simultaneously utilizing slow pace of play.
• Both teams are likely to end the season in the top five in blitz rate on defense.
• Expect both teams to primarily lean pass-heavy with primary emphasis over the short-to-intermediate middle of the field.

HOW MIAMI WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Mike McDaniel gave us a glimpse into how the Dolphins are likely to operate this season in Week 1 – with one interesting twist. We witnessed the “standard Shanahan tree” slow pace of play (31^st overall and 27^th situation-neutral) and Josh Boyer swarming defense, but the team left Week 1 with the highest pass rate over expectation value and highest pass rate over expectation on first down in the league. It takes a lot of speculation as to why we saw the high pass rates last week (which could be anything from a specific game plan against the Patriots, to an intent to mask a bottom 10 offensive line, to making a statement with his newly acquired alpha wide receiver), but I tentatively expect the aggression to continue. Consider this – Miami averaged a paltry 2.41 yards per running back carry against the Patriots last week but 8.2 yards per pass attempt and 11.7 yards per completion. That said, there are multiple signs pointing to increased pass rates continuing forward to Week 2 against the Ravens, which we’ll get into further below.

Speaking of the ground game, man, oh man, did this unit fail to get anything going last week. Not only did we see a putrid 2.41 yards per running back carry, but the offensive line lacked any real push up front, and the outside zone run scheme was almost nonexistent; the latter of which could be a big issue considering Miami brought in two running backs best suited to B-gap and off-tackle rushing. I expect we might see a similar game plan to what the Jets decided to do last week against these Ravens – throw the football (and a lot – okay, probably not 59 times, but, yeah, a lot). And that wasn’t just an anomaly – Baltimore has not ranked lower than third in the league in rush attempts against per game since 2018, when they finished fifth in the metric. The combination of Brandon Williams (no longer with the team) and Michael Pierce (starting nose tackle) have ranked no lower than third in run-stopping metrics each of the previous five seasons. Pair that with an aggressive blitz and defense that plays man coverage and cover-1 at some of the highest rates in the league (this remained relatively consistent in Week 1 under new defensive coordinator Mike McDonald, who received the in-house promotion after the departure of Wink Martindale) and we’re likely to see the Dolphins side with an aerial-first attack once again in Week 2.

The Dolphins pass offense exhibited many of the characteristics we should expect based on the Shanahan tree in Week 1, with 12-of-33 pass attempts coming within five yards of the line of scrimmage, five attempts 20+ yards downfield, and 9-of-16 intermediate attempts (five to 15 yards downfield) going to pass-catchers over the middle of the field. Basically, whether it was due to scheme or quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s relative lack of downfield acumen, this pass offense operated under horizontally spread basic concepts in Week 1 with sparsely utilized downfield attempts built from there. Expect McDaniel to continue to utilize the speed of his primary skill position players to put strain on opposing defenses in the horizontal plane, with the goal being to get the ball into their hands in space. Tyreek Hill saw a massive 12-of-33 pass attempts directed his way in Week 1 (36.4% team target market share), setting up an interesting matchup against what is highly likely to be primary coverage from Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters (should he make his return from a torn ACL). The best on-paper matchup for Miami pass-catchers falls into whichever wide receiver sees the most slot snaps, but Miami utilizes enough pre-snap motion and misdirection that on-paper matchups become less relevant. Baltimore starting nickel corner Kyle Fuller was lost for the season in Week 1 due to a torn ACL, leaving starting duties to 2021 third-round pick Brandon Stephens, who posted just a 33% man coverage success rate last year on a 52.1% man coverage rate – again highlighting the heavy man principles the Ravens defense typically operates under. Stephens also allowed a hefty 120.2 passer rating and 2.00 fantasy points per target in his primary coverage, each of which are extremely poor marks. These shortcomings, paired with a low route participation rate from tight end Mike Gesicki, leave Miami with a very clear (and potentially concentrated) path of least resistance through the air. Finally, given Baltimore’s heavy blitz rates (31.1% in 2021 and 30.6% in Week 1), expect Miami to continue to lean towards a ball-out-quick primary aerial game plan. 

HOW BALTIMORE WILL TRY TO WIN ::

The Ravens approached their Week 1 dismantling of the Jets almost exactly as we had expected, finishing the game with the week’s seventh-ranked pass rate over expectation (as we talked about last week, this was the most likely game plan for the Ravens with their backfield and offensive line in the shape it was in entering the week), heavy 21 and 12-personnel usage (fullback Patrick Ricard the most snaps of any back, Rashod Bateman led the wide receivers in snap rate at just 66%, and both Isaiah Likely and Josh Oliver played more than 34% of the offensive snaps), and a stifling defense. Injuries continued to be an issue for Baltimore, however, as left tackle Ja’Wuan James and nickel corner Kyle Fuller were lost for the season due to a torn Achilles and torn ACL, respectively. Keep an eye on practice reports out of Baltimore throughout the week as all of starting left tackle Ronnie Staley, running back J.K. Dobbins, and cornerback Marcus Peters are attempting to make their return to the lineup following prolonged absences. Regardless of Dobbins’ game day status, I expect the Ravens to continue a spread aerial attack bias due to the mounting injuries to their offensive line and relative lack of health of their backfield (newcomer running back Kenyan Drake waltzed into the building and led the backfield in running back opportunities by a hefty margin after being with the franchise for all of 11 days in Week 1).

The loss of left tackle Ju’Wuan James in Week 1, paired with the absences of left tackle Ronnie Staley and running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, leaves the Ravens run game in unfortunate yet familiar territory heading into Week 2. I’d expect more of the same this week regardless of whether or not Staley and/or Dobbins return to the lineup as I wouldn’t immediately expect either to play heavy snaps after prolonged absences, meaning we’re likely to see running back Kenyan Drake (more suited for a dynamic role than Mike Davis or Justice Hill) and fullback Patrick Ricard lead the team in snap rate in the backfield once more. Considering the fact that the Ravens ended Week 1 with a low 41.2% overall rush rate in a game they led handily throughout, we can safely assume this backfield should largely be left alone for fantasy purposes.

Tight end Mark Andrews led Baltimore pass-catchers in snap rate and route participation rate in Week 1, which should continue throughout the season. Behind Andrews, de facto alpha wide receiver Rashod Bateman finished top amongst wide receivers in snap rate but was edged out by the electric Devin Duvernay in route participation rate. That said, no Baltimore wide receiver played more than 66% of the offensive snaps in Week 1, leaving efficiency and touchdowns as the likeliest contributors to fantasy value moving forward. The most telling part of the Ravens Week 1 game against the Jets was the fact that they ended with a 58.8% overall pass rate in a game they controlled with their defense throughout, meaning we can safely assume a floor of 30-33 pass attempts for quarterback Lamar Jackson with ceiling for much, much more (his 30 pass attempts in Week 1 came on only 51 total offensive plays run from scrimmage). Now consider the outside-in zone concepts and heavy blitz rates employed by the Miami defense and we’re likelier than not to see elevated pass rates utilizing the short-to-intermediate areas of the field as the primary areas of attack through the air for the Ravens.

LIKELIEST GAME FLOW ::

Eventual upside from this game depends largely on how each defense performs in the red zone, as we can expect each team to lean pass-heavy with a focus over the short-to-intermediate middle of the field. Basically, each offense should theoretically find success in their primary means of attack (Dolphins via schemed short-to-intermediate passing against heavy man coverage principles and Ravens via short-to-intermediate passing due to necessity against outside-in heavy zone concepts and heavy blitz rates), meaning we’re likely to see each offense achieve some level of success between the 20s. Combine those thoughts with the relative slow pace of play but elevated pass rates from each offense and we’re likely to see an environment develop where each team’s primary pass-catchers (Tyreek Hill and Mark Andrews) carry elevated individual floors but would require either extreme red zone efficiency or busted coverages to send the game environment into the range of “had to have it.” That said, consider this game firmly in the “primary pieces carry nice floors and theoretical ceiling remains high” bucket for Week 2.

DFS+ INTERPRETATION ::

JM >>

• I wish the price would drop on Jaylen Waddle…
  • In the bucket of “it’s easy to take the tiny sample size of Week 1 and assume it tells us everything we need to know going forward” (does that name even fit on the bucket?), it’s easy to assume that Tyreek Hill’s 12 targets last week and Waddle’s five targets last week tell us everything we need to know about the way these two will be used this year; but even if Hill is the clear alpha, shouldn’t we expect — given Waddle’s talent — that there will be at least a handful of games this year in which Waddle is the target leader and/or outproduces Hill?
  • Unfortunately, Waddle is only $700 cheaper than Hill, making him tougher to pull the trigger on in smaller-field contests, where it’s often -EV (negative expected value — i.e., something that would lose you money over time) to add unnecessary risk; in mid- to large-field tourneys, however, Waddle is a very interesting piece here
  • That said, it’s unlikely that ownership gets too far out of hand on Hill this week to where the leverage would make the “Waddle risk” more worthwhile — which keeps Hill very much in the conversation as well, in tourneys of all sizes
• Same as Hilow laid out above, I’m seeing this as a spot that very easily could pop, given the weapons involved (Lamar // Andrews // Tyreek // Waddle // Edmonds) — and yet I don’t necessarily see myself betting on a scenario in which that actually happens
• If I were betting on that scenario, the players on that list in the previous bullet point would be featured heavily
• While I may not end up building around this game as a core focus, I do want to keep in mind that individual pieces from this game can still contribute to a tourney win without the game environment getting out of hand (i.e., one-offs from that group — particularly Andrews // Tyreek // Edmonds) are in play for me in tourneys of every style/size
• Edmonds is particularly interesting, in that he’s an affordable hedge against almost every way this game could play out
  • Dolphins dominate? — Edmonds gets extra work on the ground, and is likely scoring a touchdown or two
  • Baltimore dominates? — Edmonds is getting plenty of work in the passing game (and as we see in Alex88’s research in the Matchups tab of this Edge game: these are not just underneath targets)
  • Game blows up? — Edmonds is probably involved
  • Neither team puts up a ton of points, but one or two players from this game are valuable through usage, scores, or big plays? — Edmonds is a candidate to be the name that emerges from that list
  • Given his pass game role, pretty much any game environment will come with Edmonds securing a non-awful haul of points for his price (he shouldn’t have too many games this year when he finishes below the 10.5 points he banked last week), and there are plenty of ways he could pop for 20 to 25 DK points at only $5.2k

Hilow >>

The elevated pass rates exhibited by each team are likely overshadowed by slow pace of play and elite secondaries. That means I’m more interested in finding any spots of guaranteed volume (or places volume could lead to the bonus on DraftKings plus chances at a score) as opposed to truly looking to leverage the game environment for stacks (that’s a long way of saying I’m currently most interested in hunting for one-offs from this game). That discussion has to start with Mark Andrews, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle. Of note here, Hill and Waddle played the exact same number of snaps in Week 1 (67% snap rate), and my analysis of this offense coming into the season was that we needed schemed usage for either to unlock their ceiling (we saw Hill get that schemed usage in Week 1 and Waddle not), meaning neither should be regarded as carrying a bankable floor – this removes them from my late week condensed player pool. I’ll break it down further like this:

• Mark Andrews carries the best combination of floor and ceiling from this game – my ultimate interest and exposure will likely come down to ownership projections and expected leverage, which I won’t fully get through until the End Around and The Slate podcast.

• Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle carry paths to the bonus and a score (30ish DraftKings points), meaning they should be firmly in our MME player pool.

• Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay, and Cedrick Wilson carry theoretical upside but it comes with gross-looking floors as none of these guys cracked 67% snap rates in Week 1.

• Both quarterbacks carry theoretical ceiling but would likely require the game environment erupting to unlock it (in other words, are both best played in game stacks, which I am personally not likely to utilize).

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Jets looked lost offensively against the Ravens but their game plan indicated a clear understanding of the path of least resistance from their coaching staff.
• Should that dynamic game planning and game calling continue into Week 2, we’re likeliest to see a more balanced approach against the Browns.
• The Browns game plan remains very clear: split a heavy rush workload amongst their two elite backs behind one of the league’s top offensive lines (and hide the fact that they have Jacoby Brissett at quarterback).
• The path of least resistance is likely to align with how each team chooses to bias their attack.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Jets found themselves in a difficult situation for Week 1, eventually playing without their starting quarterback and two high-profile injuries to their offensive line (Mekhi Becton was lost for the season with a knee injury, and fill-in veteran starter Duane Brown was placed on IR ahead of their opener). I was highly interested to see how they approached the game plan against a Ravens defense with injuries in the secondary, and it was made apparent very swiftly that head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Mike LaFluer had no issues turning to the pass when the clear path of least resistance called for it. As such, we should start our exploration into the likeliest plan of attack for the Jets with their opponent, the Cleveland Browns. Joe Woods utilizes heavy zone concepts, an athletic 4-2-5 front, and low blitz rates to generate organic pressure in the backfield and keep the play in front of the second level through a base cover-2/nickel package secondary. When you combine the prevent nature of the Cleveland defense with the expected high rush rates of their offense behind one of the league’s top offensive lines, we’re left with a likeliest plan of attack that should shift a little more conservative from the Jets this week. As in, I don’t think we’re likeliest to see 59 pass attempts versus just 17 total rush attempts from the Jets in Week 2. Furthermore, we’re highly unlikely to see the Jets run 76 offensive plays due to their opponent and their offensive tendencies (the Jets were afforded that many plays run from scrimmage last week due to the pass-leaning tendencies of the Ravens paired with untimely and costly turnovers).

Staying true to their preseason word, the backfield materialized as a near 50-50 split in snap rate and opportunity share, with Michael Carter the “starter” and lead rusher and electric rookie Breece Hall the change of pace and long down and distance to go back. The negative game flow and the inability of their receivers to shake heavy man coverages led to the backfield seeing a combined 19 of 59 pass attempts directed their way, good for a lofty 32.2% running back target market share split 10 targets for Hall and nine for Carter. The Jets mustered 4.06 adjusted line yards through their offensive line in Week 1, which is actually quite remarkable considering the Ravens defensive line ran the top marks in the league last week. That makes sense when looking at the retooled offensive line for the Jets, with the injury concerns coming at the left tackle position (which also helps to explain a bottom-five adjusted sack rate). In all, the matchup yields a slightly below-average 4.13 net-adjusted line yards metric in what should be an area of emphasis for the Jets.

Elijah Moore ran as the clear alpha of this pass-catching corps in Week 1 with a hefty 89% snap rate and 73.3% route participation rate but saw only seven targets (a lowly 12.7% targets per route run, which, for comparison, was leagues below his 24% targets per route run value in 2021). In what would seem like another anomaly, Moore was targeted on 31% of his routes against man coverage versus 18% versus zone in 2021. In a matchup against heavy zone principles, we could see Moore put up modest numbers once more if his targets per route run values to start the season are an indication of a more spread offensive game plan. Corey Davis remained the clear WR2 on this offense behind Moore, playing 57 offensive snaps (68%) compared to 41 for rookie Garrett Wilson (49%) and 39 for Braxton Berrios (46%). All indications point to this split behind Moore remaining consistent moving forward unless (or until) Wilson asserts himself on the perimeter. At tight end, Tyler Conklin dominated the snaps and opportunities, parlaying a 92% snap rate into seven targets (CJ Uzomah mustered 27% of the offensive snaps and saw zero targets while Lawrence Cager saw a 12% snap rate and one target). That said, this is historically an offense that utilizes the tight ends sparingly in the passing game, which again transpired in Week 1.

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

• Note 1: if you don’t utilize the Matchups tab at the top of NFL Edge games, you’re doing things wrong!
  • (My process :: I go through every game on the slate four times myself, thinking through different angles and researching different aspects each time; I then read the Edge writeup first and the Matchups research second, finalize my thoughts, and pop in my Interpretations)

• A data point from Matchups that really stands out to me this week: Cleveland gave up three monster games to quarterbacks last season, but those QBs were Kyler, Mahomes, and Herbert; Cleveland gave up three monster games to wideout last season, but those wideouts were Davante Adams, Mike Williams, and Tyreek Hill
• The Jets are implied to score under 17 real-life points, which would make it tremendously difficult for them to produce a slate-winner from any individual player
• Due to the low prices on Elijah Moore and Corey Davis (and the low bar they therefore have to clear in order to be part of a tourney-winning roster), I would be fine playing either guy as a one-off; that said, the muddy path to a two-TD game from either guy makes it much sharper, by the numbers, to only play these guys as limited pieces of large-field builds, rather than “hoping to guess right” in smaller-field play (i.e., I like these guys, but neither will make my tighter player pool)
• One of the “plays of the week” is “Cleveland backfield”; unfortunately, “Cleveland backfield” is two guys, each of whom is priced for ceiling — meaning your best case in rostering them is typically “the score you need to have,” and your worst case if avoiding them is almost never going to be “they put up a score I had to have in order to win a tourney, and now I’m dead in the water because they weren’t on my roster”
  • Put all that together, and neither of these guys will make my late-week pool
• The Browns’ defense is capable of making noise in this one, but if the game stays close enough, the Jets are likely to fail from “low time of possession and a balanced offense that doesn’t score enough points” — which limits paths to big plays for the Cleveland DST
• As a limited-entry player, I’ll likely have nothing at all from this game

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The field is likely to have a lot of certainties about this game, considering the different things these two teams showed us in Week 1.
• The certainties I find from these two teams are simply this – the Lions play fast and like to run the football, and the Commanders have a head coach and offensive designer that weigh opponents heavily in their weekly game plan.
• D’Andre Swift got his ankle rolled up on early in Week 1 and missed practice to start the week – monitor this situation closely as the team elevated Justin Jackson from the practice squad on Wednesday.
• Wide range of outcomes from the game environment itself, likely dependent on the health of Swift and the Detroit offensive line, but a likely narrow distribution of workload based on individual team design.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

The Commanders shocked the football world with their offensive game plan to start the season, coming out (and remaining) aggressive through the air with a new quarterback and new pass-catchers. Their Week 1 pass rate over expectation landed at number four in the league, behind only Miami, Kansas City, and Buffalo, and their pace of play landed in the top half of the league. The interesting part, to me, is the fact that Washington boasts a top 10 offensive line by all metrics, leading me to believe the pass-heavy game plan for Week 1 was exactly that – a specific game plan tailored to the opponent. As such, I am a little hesitant to make any sweeping assertions based on the first game of the year for this team. Consider this, Washington ran 69 offensive plays in Week 1 but fed their running backs only 17 combined carries, the two primary running backs combined to see 11 of 41 Carson Wentz targets directed their way, and head coach Ron Rivera’s favorite offensive toy (Curtis Samuel) is healthy and a large part of the offensive game plan. Of those three major Week 1 trends, it is likeliest to me that the first two were very game plan specific based on the opponent, while the latter signals more of a trend considering the history between the two. Either way, the Lions pose a stiffer test than what the Commanders saw in Week 1 against the Jaguars. Consider me highly interested to see their offensive tendencies against a new opponent.

As brought out above, the running backs saw only 17 combined carries but 11 combined targets in Week 1. Those running backs were exclusively Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic, who played snap rates of 64% and 40% and saw running back opportunities of 22 (14 carries and eight targets) and six (three carries and three targets), respectively. Let’s say that again – Antonio Gibson saw eight (!!!) targets in Week 1 and was the undoubted lead back! Okay, I wanted to emphasize that because of all the stink that the man came out of camp with, again highlighting just how little we know to start the year (which is honestly amplified heading into Week 2 because we now have all these fresh, new biases to contend with from a one-game sample – which is also the reason I wrote the lead for the Commanders the way I did because this team is highly likely to have some sweeping assertions made about them by the industry and the field when the fact of the matter is we really don’t know how their offense will operate moving forward). Having said that, we can safely assume that Gibson is the 1A of this backfield, at least for as long as Brian Robinson remains out. The pure rushing matchup is a good one against a young defensive line and team that just allowed the Eagles to rush for 5.5 yards per carry last week.

Circling back to the Curtis Samuel piece, I would say with a high degree of confidence that his usage in Week 1 is likely to continue for as long as he remains healthy. Let’s look at the facts. Ron Rivera coached Samuel in Carolina, where he was utilized in a similar way to what we saw in Week 1 (somewhat of a Swiss Army knife, with carries, pre-snap motions, sweeps, the works). Rivera left Carolina and then sought out Samuel in free agency, bringing him over to Washington, who slapped him with a three-year, $34.5 million deal. Samuel then gets hurt and misses most of 2021, and the community forgets about their connection. Best Ball drafters forgot; I can guarantee that much. That said, his average depth of target in Week 1 was a paltry 1.4 yards, and he amassed a total of 14.0 air yards, which is laughably hard to do. He also was the clear WR3 from a snap rate perspective, handling only 71% of the offensive snaps. All of that to say, Curtis Samuel is someone we need to be aware of for how much schemed usage we can expect, but that schemed usage absolutely must be present due to the low aDOT and type of usage he’s seeing, meaning his utility is likely to depend on specific game plans and game environments – which we just got done exploring as potentially different this week compared to last. Terry McLaurin and rookie Jahan Dotson predictably led the way as far as snap rate goes (90% and 88%, respectively) but mustered only four and five targets, respectively. Again, chalk that up to a specific game plan. While the game plan regarding the rushing utilization and involvement is likely (in my mind) to change heading into Week 2, the heavy blitz rates (48.8% in Week 1, second highest in the league) the Lions showed us in Week 1 are likely to force another aerial attack based primarily on short and quick hits, meaning it might be another week where Samuel sees a spike in the schemed usage we talked about before. Logan Thomas made a surprising return to the lineup in Week 1 after suffering a devastating knee injury last season, immediately regaining the lead role. Look for John Bates to continue mixing in until Thomas is fully healthy.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Both teams came out with pace during the first half of their Week 1 games, with each finishing in the top six in the league in the metric.
• The Colts are basically “Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman or bust” as far as guaranteed volume goes, with no other player seeing more than a 77% snap rate in Week 1.
• Trevor Lawrence exhibited the same indecision and inaccuracies that plagued his rookie season in Week 1; the Jacksonville offense is likely to continue to struggle until he adjusts to the speed of the NFL game.
• Indianapolis should control this game through elevated rush rates and a prevent defense, likely allowing Jonathan Taylor to soak another robust workload.

How INDIANAPOLIS Will Try To Win ::

True to form under Frank Reich, the Colts ended Week 1 with the league’s sixth-lowest pass rate over expectation, even in a negative game script that saw the team trail by three scores into the fourth quarter. Indianapolis was able to run 92 offensive plays in an eventual overtime tie, affording Jonathan Taylor 31 rush attempts and seven targets, Matt Ryan 50 pass attempts, and Michael Pittman 13 targets. The big takeaways from that Week 1 contest were the 26% team target market share for Pittman (which is a tick below elite levels – I honestly was expecting that number to be a smidge higher coming into the year), the hefty 76% snap rate and 38 (!!!) running back opportunities from Jonathan Taylor (the team continued to ride him deep into the game, not shifting the focus towards Nyheim Hines in a negative game script), and the confirmation of the assumption we had about this offense behind Taylor and Pittman (in that no other pass-catcher saw more than seven targets and nine total pass-catchers received at least two targets – super spread behind the two primary pieces). What might go missed by the field is the fact that the Colts brought the pace to open the game, finishing the first half with a 25.56 seconds per play mark, ranking 6th in the league in the metric. Summing that up – expect the Colts to play fast with high rush rates, primarily focused on Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman.

Jonathan Taylor’s league takeover continues in 2022 as the electric back saw 76% of the offensive snaps, 86% of the team’s rush attempts, a 61% route participation rate (which is far above his career numbers), and a solid-yet-unspectacular 18% targets per route run rate. The one area Taylor did not see much action in was the two-minute offense, where he managed only 47% of the offensive snaps and ceded primary duties to Hines. That said, that is a hefty workload, friends. Taylor also gets the honor of running behind a top 10 offensive line in 2022, which, when combined with his dynamic skillset, allowed him to rush for a solid 5.2 yards per carry on a massive 31 carries in Week 1 (hard to maintain that level of efficiency with so many touches, but Taylor got better as the game went on). Hines should be considered the primary two-minute back and should see a handful of rush attempts per week, soaking up the majority of his value through the passing game. Of note, Hines did equal Taylor’s touches inside the five in Week 1, which was an area of the field that Taylor lapped the field in workload in 2021. The matchup on the ground should be considered middling after the Jaguars held the Commanders to 3.88 running back yards per carry a week ago.

As we touched on above, the pass offense is very much a case of “Michael Pittman and then everyone else.” Pittman played all but two offensive snaps in Week 1, which is a massive number considering that equated to 90 total snaps. No other pass-catcher played more than 77% of the offensive snaps (Parris Campbell), with the third most snaps coming from tight end Kylen Granson (55%). Yeah, behind Pittman, not much in the way of certainty here. What was interesting to me was the fact that the Colts played primarily from 11-personnel after ending the 2021 season below league average. That said, the wide receiver rotation behind Pittman was robust. Not much more to say here other than to highlight the “solid but not elite” 26% team target market share for Pittman and the increased involvement of Jonathan Taylor in the passing game through a bump to route participation rate. Of note, rookie wide receiver Alec Pierce was forced from Week 1 with a concussion, which could tighten up the wide receiver rotation slightly. Should he miss Week 2, expect Ashton Dulin to operate as the de facto WR3.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Buccaneers list ten players on their initial injury report. In contrast, the Saints list 11 – New Orleans’ report seems littered with “load management” as 10 of the 11 players were listed as limited participants, whereas Tampa Bay could have some real issues here.
• The story for this one starts with each team’s offensive lines, as the Buccaneers performed extremely well in Week 1 even through multiple injuries, while the Saints interior is a massive point of weakness.
• The Buccaneers are likely to assert control in the trenches, which is the starting point for the matchups in this game.
• The New Orleans offense looked stagnant in Week 1, which makes sense considering the multitude of moving pieces for this team during the offseason.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Buccaneers injury report was a sight to behold on Wednesday, for all the wrong reasons. Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Tristan Wirfs, Breshad Perriman, and Tom Brady (not injury related) were all listed as limited participants, while all of Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Russell Gage, Zyon McCollum, and Donovan Smith missed practice entirely. The presence of two members of an already battered offensive line and the top five wide receivers on the depth chart on the opening injury report is notable, particularly considering a matchup with a Saints defense that notoriously plays this team extremely tight. The full practice report is not yet available for Thursday (writing this Thursday morning), but initial reports indicate that Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones were all not present during the portion of practice open to the media. The downgrade from “limited” to “DNP” could be telling for Evans, while consecutive missed practices for Julio and Godwin paint an ominous picture. As things currently stand, I would tentatively expect Evans and Julio to suit up, while Godwin should be considered a long shot to be active on game day. Tampa Bay surprisingly ended Week 1 with the eighth lowest pass rate over expectation, which is likely more of a nod to the lack of pressure from a Dallas team that mustered all of three points offensively combined with limited repetitions from quarterback Tom Brady in the offseason program. That said, I’d expect pass rate values to increase as the year progresses.

Leonard Fournette continued a commanding share of the backfield duties for the Buccaneers in Week 1, amassing a hefty (pun not intended) 76% snap rate, 76% (!!!) route participation rate, and 100% of the two-minute snaps. Those underlying metrics mean we shouldn’t read too far into the fact that Fournette saw only a 7% team target market share on a lowly 9% targets per route run value (as in, Fournette is likely to see extremely solid receiving numbers this year with that level of route participation). For comparison, Dalvin Cook, Darrel Henderson, and Christian McCaffrey were the only three running backs to surpass Fournette’s 76% route participation rate in Week 1. That’s elite company, people (also, sidenote, shout out to Henderson… my gawd). Rachaad White ran well behind Fournette, accounting for just 17 offensive snaps (27%) and eight running back opportunities, seven of which came in the second half with the game already in hand. That means that Fournette’s gawdy underlying metrics likely reflect lower than actuality. Most notably, Giovani Bernard and Ke’Shawn Vaughn didn’t sniff the field. The New Orleans defensive line and linebacker unit also aren’t what they used to be, coming off 5.39 adjusted line yards surrendered and 5.5 yards per carry to the 31-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson behind a middling Atlanta offensive line.

It’s difficult to write up this section for a Buccaneers pass offense with all five of its top wide receivers out of practice, but here we are. There’s only one scenario where I expect a shadow out of New Orleans defensive backs, and that’s if Mike Evans plays. Marshon Lattimore has held Evans in his back pocket for their entire careers. For example, Evans averages just 51.4 yards per game against the Saints and 81.7 yards per game against all other opponents. Lattimore is also typically only in shadow coverage on large-bodied, X-type wide receivers, of which Mike Evans is. Any other scenario would likely leave Lattimore to his side of the field. I tentatively expect Evans, Julio, Perriman, and Gage to go, which could serve to increase the target market share of Fournette, Julio, and Gage (with Perriman likely to be used sparingly) should Lattimore be charged with shadow coverage on Evans. Cameron Brate, Cade Otten, and Ko Kieft (?) split snaps at the tight end position, notably leaving veteran Kyle Rudolph to rot on the inactive list.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY Hilow >>

• New Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale blitzed at a 48.6% clip in Week 1 after coming over from the same position in Baltimore, where they finished no lower than sixth in overall blitz rate (last year, first in each of the preceding three seasons) over the previous four seasons.
• Baker Mayfield has a career 35.8 PFF rating when under pressure (41.8% completion percentage – lolz) and 57.3 PFF rating when blitzed (compared to an elite 74.0 PFF rating with a clean pocket.)
• The Giants pass catchers are a veritable mess outside of Saquon Barkley – nobody can be fully trusted until we get more clarity.
• Carolina would do well to get Christian McCaffrey more than five first half touches this week.
• DJ Moore is a stud versus man coverages, something he should see plenty of against a Wink Martindale defense.

HOW CAROLINA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Matt Rhule’s Panthers looked lost offensively to begin the season, adapting a hyper conservative game plan and not opening things up until deep into the fourth quarter in Week 1. It’s honestly a shame they almost came back to win late because it could lead to a somewhat validated feeling amongst the coaching staff, which is truly too bad considering the pieces of the offense. Christian McCaffrey maintains his position as one of the true workhorse running backs in the NFL, yet he was afforded only five first half touches in Week 1. For all intents and purposes, this team still has a lot to figure out as far as identity goes. One interesting aspect is the disconnect between feigned aggression and play calling as the Panthers ranked towards the top of the league in pace of play in Week 1, but were both timid on early downs and one-dimensional through the air until late in the fourth quarter. From a pure game planning perspective, we should expect the Panthers to get out ahead of the likely high blitz rates from the Giants, meaning short-to-intermediate passing to D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey.

The Panthers backfield is Christian McCaffrey’s. He played a massive 83% snap rate in Week 1 on his way to a 23% team target market share and 77% route participation rate; however, his low 17% targets per route run and 61% team rush share were well below his career norm. There’s two ways to look at this: (1) the floor is in for McCaffrey for the remainder of the year as the latter two values increase to meet his career norms, or (2) Rhule is making a concerted effort to lighten his load while not lessening his snap rate. The former makes a whole heck of a lot more sense to me considering the elite snap rate and route participation rate we saw in Week 1, while the latter seems like pure idiocy, in my humble opinion. As in, why in the world would Rhule not manage his workload by lessening his snap rate to get the same elite per-touch production instead of calling plays around his elite back while he’s on the field? All of that is a fancy way of saying, “CMC is going to be just fine, and I think we just saw a floor performance.” The matchup is middling against a non-formidable Giants defensive line, with the primary detractor being the shortcomings of Carolina’s offensive line. The only worry here is the lack of dynamic and schemed usage for CMC to start the year after two lost seasons, something I am not currently overly concerned about.

The Panthers were held to a paltry 53 offensive plays run from scrimmage against a Browns team that controlled the game throughout. The interesting part about the setup of this one is that the Giants are now strangely well-equipped to do just that – control the game through their defense and ground game. That said, and true to Rhuleian form, the top two wide receivers played every single offensive snap in Week 1. DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson accounted for 14-of-27 Baker Mayfield pass attempts, good for a combined 51.6% team target market share. My takeaway here is that DJM, CMC, and Anderson are going to be the driving forces in this offense on a weekly basis, which could present some buying opportunities before we see them put everything together. The high blitz rates of Wink Martindale’s defense on the other side should force heavier rates of man coverage and ball-out-quick from Mayfield, meaning D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey should see heavier target shares than the more downfield Robbie Anderson. And guess who holds a top-10 career success rate against man coverage? Yeah, D.J. Moore does (greater than 30% target share against man coverages each of the last three seasons.) His 2.40 yards of average separation versus man coverage is absolutely elite.

How New york Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By papy324>>

• The strongest play from this game is likely to be a Defense
• The Patriots are likely to outperform public expectations
• Diontae Johnson and Najee Harris are mispriced for their roles/talent
• Pat Freiermuth saw 10 targets in Week 1

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

A leprechaun named Lucky isn’t as fortunate as Mike Tomlin. The Steelers forced five turnovers in Week 1, sacking Joe Burrow seven times, while not turning the ball over on offense, and (surprisingly) only allowing one sack for a two-yard loss. Despite those discrepancies, The Steelers needed a mistake filled overtime to win, and that overtime was forced by a Minkah Fitzpatrick blocked extra point kick as time expired. Had the Bengals executed that extra point, the Steelers would have become the first team to lose a game with a plus five turnover margin and seven sacks in the last fifty years.

How did the Steelers nearly lose a game they dominated thoroughly on defense? Their offense was pathetic. Tomlin has engaged in “troll yourself” mode by starting Mitch Trubisky over the clearly superior Kenny Pickett. Tomlin is trolling himself because if the Steelers win (despite Trubisky playing horribly), he can’t make a change at QB, because winning, duh. If the Steelers drop out of contention, then go to Pickett, the year goes to waste. This creates a lose/lose scenario. Even though the world has had four years to see what Trubisky is (a backup-level QB), Tomlin clearly needs a fifth. With Tomlin’s luck, Trubisky will get hurt and he’ll be forced to make the correct play, saving himself, but until then, this offense will be weighed down by a below-average quarterback.

Tomlin is more of a button masher than a strategic thinker. Remember when it looked like he had figured out that going for two consistently was a plus EV play? Well, turned out he was just going for two randomly (usually if the Steelers scored first) to “set the tone.” The Steelers played fast last week (2^nd in total pace) but they showed large discrepancies between the first half (26^th in pace) and the second half (2^nd in pace). In Week 1, there was nearly a two-second gap in pace between the Steelers and the third fastest team in the second half. This game was never more than two scores apart and the Steelers were leading throughout, so why then did they play at warp speed in the second half with a lead, after playing slow in the first half? Ask Tomlin.

The Steelers offense is just as likely to play fast as it is slow, but one thing that should remain consistent is a “beat the man across from you” scheme, operated by a below-average QB. With the Patriots run defense (15^th DVOA) and pass defense (19^th DVOA) performing similarly last week, expect the Steelers to stick with their pass-leaning and balanced approach on offense, where their success will be hampered by inefficient QB play. Expect Matt Canada to try and set up one on one outside shots (these appear to be more of a staple of his offense without noodle-armed Big Ben), while mixing in the running game to try and bring up the safeties. Bill Belichick is adaptable on both sides of the ball, but he has recently preferred to lean on man coverage. Since I doubt Belichick respects Trubisky, there should be plenty of single high coverages for the Steelers attack on the outside. The success or failure of their offense will hinge on how many of those shots hit since they are likely to struggle to sustain drives.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Atlanta is due for a letdown, while the Rams are itching for a bounce-back game.
• The Falcons will have to make a decision defensively on if they change the approach that they’ve had success with or leave themselves vulnerable to the strengths of the Rams.
• Matthew Stafford and the passing game are in a terrific spot.
• The game flow is likely to keep Atlanta from relying on the run as heavily as they did in Week 1.

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

The Falcons nearly pulled off a win against the Saints in Week 1, losing by just one point to a Saints field goal with 0:19 remaining in the game. In that game, the Falcons were able to control most of the game thanks to a strong defensive effort and a good rushing attack, with Cordarrelle Patterson and quarterback Marcus Mariota combining for nearly 200 rushing yards. One of the key plays in the game that likely altered the outcome was a fumble by Mariota inside the Saints 10-yard line late in the 3rd quarter. Had Mariota held on to the ball, the Falcons would have had first and goal and a chance to take a 30-10 lead, effectively putting the game out of reach. In that context, we can see how impressive the Falcons performance really was, as scoring 30 points in three quarters against a good defense would have been quite the feat.

Entering Week 2, the Falcons will have a different challenge on their hands. The Rams are coming off a 10-day break following their loss at the hands of the Bills on opening night last Thursday. The Saints were very conservative in their game plan, and Jameis Winston struggled with the blitzes the Falcons were sending at him, resulting in a stagnant offense that allowed Atlanta to control the game. The Falcons ran the ball 38 times in Week 1, compared to only 33 pass attempts. Atlanta will likely try to take the same approach this week that they had success with in Week 1, although that approach is much less likely to hold water traveling cross country against the defending Super Bowl champions.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• Two teams on opposite ends of the emotional spectrum.
• A loss here and Trey Lance could legitimately be benched.
• Both teams are likely to have a run-heavy approach and struggle to turn drives into touchdowns.
• Neither team plays with much tempo or pace, which should lead to low play volume.

How Seattle Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks rode emotions, a raucous home crowd, a solid defensive performance, and Broncos mistakes to a shocking Week 1 victory on Monday Night Football. Now playing on a short week against a division rival, they will have to move on quickly if they want to compete as they enter this game as double-digit underdogs. 

Seattle had a solid showing on Monday night but didn’t do anything extraordinary. The Broncos outgained the Seahawks by nearly 200 yards, as Seattle only mustered 253 total yards of offense. The 49ers defense is no joke and will certainly form a tough obstacle for Geno Smith and the Seahawks. Contrary to popular opinion, the Seahawks actually played at a top-10 pace in 2021. However, in Week 1 they were dead last in seconds per snap, while only having 49 total offensive snaps (the league average is in the low 60s). Putting that together, we have a conservative offense that wants to play at a slow pace, doesn’t accumulate much volume, and isn’t very efficient. While we can all see this reality, in Pete Carroll’s mind they are undefeated, and “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

How San Francisco Will Try to win ::

JM >>

• I really like the Lance/Jennings angle that Mike highlighted above — but same as Mike, this would be reserved for large-field play
• On tighter builds, I don’t want to mess with a single player from Seattle; I don’t want to trust Deebo at his price tag; and I don’t want to hope Jeff Wilson’s role is “big enough” when there are better options available; any of these options can be played around with in large-field play, but these are non-starters for me in tighter builds
• On tighter builds, the two players I have “fringe interest” in are Trey Lance and Brandon Aiyuk, who cost $5.7k and $5.1k on DraftKings, respectively (and cost $10.8k combined)
  • I’m firmly in the “Lance non-believer” camp (I drafted him on under 2% of my Underdog rosters — at a position where I’m typically very happy to take swings on unestablished running QBs outside the top rounds; he just looked SO bad to me as a passer last year, and the training camp reports highlighted his inaccuracy consistently enough, that I didn’t feel the reward outweighed the risk at his draft capital; to be clear, this is still very much something I could be proven wrong on), but as long as his price remains low in DFS, he’ll continue to carry 5x upside
  • Aiyuk was A) the 49ers’ training camp standout and B) Lance’s favorite weapon all summer, and he is now effectively the WR1, as Deebo will be used more as an “offensive weapon” than as a true wideout; that said…if Jimmy Garoppolo threw 28 or fewer passes in eight of his 15 games last year (with four games in which he threw 23 or fewer passes!), what do we think the chances are that Lance is called on to pass a ton in a game the 49ers control? With that in mind, it’s hard to see Aiyuk’s targets truly spiking, which means it’s hard for me to see myself actually pulling the trigger on this play; the upside is there, even on lower volume, so he’s definitely tourney-worthy; but if I have only a few builds this weekend, I don’t think I’ll actually end up going here

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson>>

• Both teams are coming off embarrassing showings in the opening week.
• Dak Prescott’s injury has significantly changed the outlook for this game, as well as the likely approach for each team.
• The status of Tee Higgins will have a large impact on how aggressive the Bengals want to be in this spot as big favorites against an injury-riddled opponent.
• A game of chicken is likely with the Bengals trying not to beat themselves and the Cowboys just hoping to stay close enough to let them.

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

Fresh off a Super Bowl appearance with a young team, the Bengals promptly dropped a game against a Mitch Trubisky-led team to open their 2022 season. The loss was marred by turnovers, sacks, and self-imposed mistakes. While a lot of credit needs to go to the Steelers defense, the Bengals created a lot of their own issues. At the top of the list of issues for the Bengals was pass protection, as the Steelers pass rush had seven sacks and forced Joe Burrow into four interceptions and one lost fumble. The Bengals also had offensive line issues last year, but they put a lot of resources into fortifying the line this offseason so the opening week had to be discouraging. The reality is that good offensive line play comes from communication and chemistry, which is hard to have so early in the year with a lot of new pieces. This issue should improve as the season goes along, but in Week 2 they will likely have their hands full again with Micah Parsons creating havoc on the edge.

For most of last season, the Bengals had a conservative and balanced approach to begin games and would adjust that approach based on how the game was going. When they built early leads, they would run the ball more; and when they fell behind, they would open things up. Later in the season, against better competition and in high leverage games, the Bengals did start opening things up and throwing more aggressively. At this point, we don’t know yet if the Bengals will continue the trend we saw them ride to the Super Bowl, or if they will go back to their balanced approach that they had for most of the regular season. Last week, after throwing a pick-six on their first possession and having turnovers on three of their next four possessions, the Bengals dropped back to pass 60 times on 94 offensive plays. Due to the context of Week 1, it is still too early to tell what the Bengals will do. What we do know is that when they do throw, they are likely to be aggressive as Joe Burrow led the league with 17 passes 10+ yards downfield last week and 66.6% of his completions went for first downs.

After a mistake prone Week 1, and facing a team who will be without their franchise quarterback, the Bengals are likely to play this game relatively close to the vest to avoid a similar fate. The status of Tee Higgins, who left Sunday’s game with a concussion, will also play a role in how the Bengals approach this game. He is a key offensive piece in the intermediate passing game and his absence may lead the Bengals to lean more on the run and short passing game rather than forcing the ball downfield against what was a very opportunistic Dallas secondary last season. I would expect the Bengals to look to establish the run in this game and take some calculated deep shots, along with schemed looks to get the ball in the hands of Ja’Marr Chase in space.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

JM >>

• I agree with everything above and don’t have a whole lot to add without simply being redundant
• Re: Bengals defense — one way to look at this is to ask how many sacks and turnover the Bengals will really be able to force if the Cowboys try to play things close to the vest for several quarters; the Bengals will obviously project as “the top defense on the slate,” but the gap between the Bengals and other defenses is not nearly as significant as ownership will indicate, making it plenty sharp to steer clear in tourneys
• Re: “Interesting plays if Higgins misses” — I agree 100% (Chase // Hurst); I also agree that it’s tough to see Chase or Hurst truly popping in the expected game environment if everyone is healthy
• Mixon is very much in the mix
• I also really like the Noah Brown call; because of the variance associated with defense and the ownership the Bengals’ defense is certain to see, one of the more valuable strategy angles on this slate would be finding SOME way to gain leverage over those who load up on the Bengals; Brown is a cheap way to do this, with very clear paths to this play working out

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• One of many games this week where the favored team is trying to bounce back after a surprising loss and the underdog is coming off of an emotional win (or tie in this case).
• Houston doesn’t have any tactical or personnel advantages to exploit and has the tough task of playing a road game in Denver in September.
• Denver will be looking to redeem themselves after a Monday night fiasco that was embarrassing on many levels.
• Denver’s offensive metrics indicate likely positive regression in scoring, while Houston mostly relied on their opponent’s mistakes to put points up in Week 1.

How Houston Will Try To Win ::

The Texans had an impressive opening week performance that was ruined by head coach Lovie Smith curling up in a shell and just hoping time would run out in regulation once they built a 20-3 lead and then punting with 20 seconds left at midfield and settling for a tie. The Texans will try to ride their “kissing your sister” feeling to a road victory in Denver. Over the years, Denver has been notorious for being a difficult place for opposing teams to play, specifically early in the season, due to the altitude. This Week 2 matchup against a team that had a very disappointing opening week will certainly be a test of whether or not this Texans team is “for real” after hanging tough against the highly regarded Colts in Week 1.

Houston had a relatively balanced run/pass split in Week 1, with 40 pass plays and only 28 rushing attempts despite holding a lead for much of the game. Houston also played at the 4th fastest situation-neutral pace in the league in Week 1, after being bottom-10 in the league in 2021 in the same category. The Broncos defense should be a tough test, as they held the Seahawks to only 253 total yards in Week 1 and the Texans don’t really have any elite talents on their offense. The Texans will play scrappy and smart football, playing conservative but taking some calculated shots to try and pull off the road upset. Misdirection and spreading the ball around is likely Houston’s best chance of consistently moving the ball against the Broncos, as vanilla schemes or forcing the ball up the middle on the ground or through the air to Brandin Cooks is unlikely to get the job done.

How Denver Will Try to win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Arizona looks like they could be a bottom-tier team this year, with an aging roster and lack of creativity from the coaching staff.
• Las Vegas lost a tough Week 1 game to a very good Chargers team but showed some signs of promise.
• The Cardinals defensive scheme leaves them susceptible to the weapons of the Raiders.
• The Cardinals are likely to face an uphill battle of game script for the second consecutive week.

How Arizona Will Try To Win ::

Arizona looked like a lost team in their season opening 44-21 decimation at the hands of the Chiefs that was somehow not even as close as the score would indicate. The defense showed no resistance to the Chiefs, and the offense averaged only 3.5 yards per play through nearly three quarters when the Chiefs started pulling defensive starters and played more conservatively on defense with a 37-7 lead. For reference, the Bears talent deficient offense averaged 3.6 yards per carry (which was last in the league for Week 1) in a monsoon against a very good 49ers defense. 

Kliff Kingsbury doesn’t appear to do much to change the “how they will try to win” situation for the Cardinals from week to week. Shotgun formations, spread offense, horizontal passing attack, quick tempo, and no-huddle. It looks the same every week, regardless of who they are playing. The scheme is built upon reliance on the Cardinals players making plays and beating their opponents, while their personnel really isn’t capable of winning in many areas of the field. When things break down, or the short, scripted plays don’t work, it often turns into a situation where Kyler Murray has to keep plays alive with his legs and hope something opens up. It really does make sense why Kyler was so apprehensive about being tied to this team and coach long-term, although $230 million will help you get over a lot of those concerns.

The Raiders defense played a solid game against a very good Chargers offense in Week 1 and will be a challenge for the Cardinals. There are no glaring weaknesses for Las Vegas that we should expect the Cardinals to change their approach to attack, especially given Kingsbury’s “I know better” attitude. The outcome of this game and how things play out is much more likely to be dictated by the Raiders than by the Cardinals.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

JM >>

• I felt the heat radiating off my computer screen reading that writeup
• Davante Adams has been central to 90% of my practice builds so far this week, and I’ve messed around with plenty of Waller and Carr as well
• It would be just like DFS for me to be too early to the Josh Jacobs party last week at practically zero-percent ownership, only for him to hit this week away from my roster; he’s in the mix for me, and he actually works on a “capture all the touchdowns” roster with Carr and a pass catcher as well; but there are better on-paper plays
• Greg Dortch not only led Arizona in targets last week but also led all Arizona skill position players in snaps
  • While targets can be fluky, that type of snap rate tells us the Cardinals have him embedded in their plan
  • With Rondale Moore likely to miss, Dortch is in play as salary relief that should see higher pass play rates and softer coverage as this game moves along if Davante Adams or Darren Waller are hitting for a monster game (i.e., you can complete your bet on Adams or Waller by adding Dortch — while effectively lowering your average entry price to the Davante or Waller bet along the way)
• That’s really it for me in this game…which speaks to the beauty of the concentrated offense the Raiders are giving us, while also continuing my trend over the last three seasons of “generally always avoiding the Cardinals themselves,” in spite of being very happy to play opposing players against their pace-up team

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday night football has the Bears traveling to the Packers for a game that started with a 45.5 total but has dropped all the way down to just 41.5, with Green Bay favored by a whopping 10 points. When I saw the enormous drop I thought it was weather-related but the weather looks fine . . . it’s just that both the Bears and the Packers absolutely flopped in Week 1 so bettors seem to have little confidence in them to put up points. We’ll see. 

Chicago

We’ll start with the visitors and their run game. David Montgomery is priced like a near bell cow role, coming off of a game in which he handled 17 carries and four targets. Sans a dedicated pass-catching back, it looks like Monty is now established in that role for Chicago. He was on the field for 66% of the snaps, which fits into “near bell cow” territory. The issue, however, is the massive spread, in which even if Montgomery has a solid passing game role, he will be unlikely to be able to pay off his salary and end in optimal lineups (barring a fluky TD performance) without the Bears keeping the game close. I would want to primarily be deploying him in rosters that are predicated on the game being close or the Bears pulling off an upset. Behind Montgomery, Khalil Herbert played 29% of the snaps and saw 10 opportunities, and also averaging 5 yards per carry vs. just 1.5 for Montgomery (yikes). I can’t imagine any sort of changing of the guard here after just one game, but continued performance differences like this should eventually allow Herbert to carve out a larger role. Herbert scored a short touchdown, so clearly Montgomery isn’t the dedicated goal-line back, and Herbert has a real role. Given their prices, I’d be hesitant to put them on a roster together and certainly would not have Herbert in a roster in which I have Monty at captain. It’s worth noting as well in the “run game” section that Justin Fields ran a whopping 11 times last week, and while some of that was certainly driven by a run-heavy approach due to playing in a freaking monsoon, that kind of rushing usage for Fields is elite and should result in some very strong games this season if it continues. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Bears attack starts – and frankly, almost ends – with Darnell Mooney. Mooney is a strong talent and has a very robust role, and $7,800 is too cheap for his talent and workload. He’s a guy I want to be overweight on at this kind of price. Behind him, good luck. Equanimeous St. Brown, Dante Pettis (my old 49ers friend), and Byron Pringle represent the rest of the wide receiver corps (with snaps played in that order), with Cole Kmet as the primary tight end and Ryan Griffin backing him up. The Bears played with two TEs on the field roughly 50% of the time in Week 1 but it’s hard to know at this point if that was weather and game plan driven, or something they’re going to do normally. I think Kmet and Griffin are both viable plays here with Kmet clearly the better on-paper option and priced way down at just $2,000 after his Week 1 bagel. On the flip side, Pringle is overpriced for his Week 1 role of just 17% of the snaps but the Bears were deploying him as a deep threat in Week 1 and the weather didn’t really support that kind of role. The way I would view this is that Kmet is a very strong on-paper play (who will likely attract a ton of ownership at this price), St. Brown comes next in my pecking order, then Pettis, while Pringle is a VERY interesting tournament option if you believe his small role in Week 1 was primarily about the weather. If Pringle becomes the primary WR2 in better weather, he could be a key difference-maker at what I’m currently projecting to be extremely modest ownership. It’s super uncomfortable, but in large-field tournaments, I want to be overweight on Pringle. 

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Monday night brings us not one but two football games, for extra Showdown goodness! The first one looks like fun as the Titans visit the Bills for a game with a 47.5 total (which opened at 52, lol). Buffalo is favored by a massive 10 points here after Tennessee’s crummy Week 1 showing, which is, frankly, hard to argue with. Let’s explore.

Buffalo

On the Bills side, we know Josh Allen is basically the RB1 but we also have Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, and James Cook in the backfield. In Week 1, Singletary played 59% of the snaps and saw 10 RB opportunities (in a game the Bills won by 21 points, no less), while Moss played 37% of the snaps and saw 12 opportunities, including six targets. James Cook played three snaps, had one carry, fumbled it, and was never heard from again. Presumably, Cook will carve out a role this season but there’s nothing that points to it happening this week . . . except that the NFL is weird, and Cook is likely to be extremely low-owned so he’s worthwhile as a tourney flier. Singletary and Moss fall into the normal “Buffao backfield is a shitshow” situation. Neither got a lot of work despite the Bills absolutely curb-stomping the defending Super Bowl champs last week so it’s hard to see what would point to more work this week, except that we know there will be games in which Buffalo runs more, and we know that running backs on good offenses can put up strong scores when touchdown variance swings their way. Singletary is the starter and is fairly priced at $7,400, while Moss feels a bit underpriced down at $3,600. There’s another factor that could point in their favor here, which is that Gabe Davis is questionable with an ankle injury (late week downgrades are never good). My interest in the Buffalo backfield will go up a fair bit of Davis misses, while I expect the field will flock to their receiving corps, leaving the RBs as good tournament leverage points.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Buffalo should be able to do what they want against a mediocre Titans secondary. In Week 1, Stef Diggs reminded the NFL world that he is in fact an elite receiver who just ran really poorly on touchdown variance last season, and he’s in a smash spot here. He’s an amazing play and an expensive one. Assuming Davis misses (remember that guys who are downgraded late in the week usually miss), Isaiah McKenzie should be in for a bit more work, but be wary here of thinking that he’s suddenly a smash play – he’ll be out there but he’s not likely to run on the perimeter where Davis plays, and he may well continue splitting time in the slot with Jamison Crowder. My guess here, which is pure conjecture on my part, is that Crowder’s 31% snap count last week was driven at least partially by McKenzie entering the week with a questionable tag. I think McKenzie is the better receiver, I think Buffalo believes that as well, and I expect his role to grow as the season goes on. Should Davis miss, the most logical replacement on the perimeter would be Jake Kumerow. Kumerow would be on the field a lot, and he’s just $200, but we can’t expect him to earn the same kind of target share as Davis. He’s going to project really well but he’s also going to be somewhat of a fragile play. At what would likely be enormous ownership, I would personally be taking an underweight position on him. At tight end, Dawson Knox only saw two targets in Week 1. Better times should be coming for Knox, and his market share of targets should creep up a bit with no Davis, but keep in mind that Knox is generally a 3-6 target kind of guy who’s going to need a touchdown to pay off. You can include Tommy Sweeney and Khalil Shakir (if Davis is out) in MME pools as thin punt options.

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 2 comes to a close as the Vikings visit the Eagles. This one opened at 48 points but has been bet up to 50.5, which I think feels reasonable as the Eagles are an elite offense with A.J. Brown in town. Philly is even favored here by 2.5 (an unusual situation for the Eagles against a good team!). 

Philadelphia

We’ll start with the Eagles. Their backfield is a mess. They scored FOUR rushing touchdowns in Week 1, one by Jalen Hurts and then one from each of their three main running backs. Miles Sanders is the lead back here but that only netted him 15 opportunities last week, while Kenneth Gainwell played 30% of the snaps and saw nine opportunities, and Boston Scott played 18% of the snaps and saw four opportunities. Sanders is the lead guy here, clearly, but $8k is a steep price to pay for a back who will rarely if ever hit 20+ touches this season, and who will get vultured by the other running backs and his quarterback. Gainwell at $5k and Scott at $2.8k are not exactly bargains, either. They’re all in play for tournaments because any of them can score touchdowns, but my overall reaction to this backfield is “yikes.” I’ll play some of them, but I want to be lower than the field (or at least lower than I expect the field to be). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, Brown wasted no time establishing his dominance, catching 10 of 13 passes (on just 32 Hurts pass attempts). That’s a 40% target share, folks, and while I don’t think it will remain that high all year, it’s clear that Hurts trusts Brown and that he’s going to be the dominant receiver in this offense. Justin Jefferson is also on this slate, which introduces some difficult choices. Jefferson is going to project better (and should), but he’s likely going to come with quite a bit more ownership, leaving Brown potentially underowned relative to his upside. Brown’s enormous Week 1 left scraps for everyone else, which resulted in significant price drops for Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith, to $5,800 and $5,200 respectively. Both were on the field for over 90% of the snaps and both are good-to-great players, and at those prices, they’re spots I want to be overweight the field on. The receiving corps rounds out with Quez Watkins, Zach Pascal, Jack Stoll, and Noah Togiai, who are basically all just tourney dart throws.