Kickoff Thursday, Sep 15th 8:15pm Eastern

Chargers (
24.5) at

Chiefs (

Over/Under 53.0


Key Matchups
Chargers Run D
22nd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
5th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
16th DVOA/21st Yards per pass


Week 2 kicks off with the Chargers visiting the Chiefs in a 54.5 total game, which is the highest of the week, wow, that’s a lot of points. Kansas City is favored by 3.5 so overall we’re expecting some offensive fireworks here from two teams who combined for 68 total points in Week 1. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

Kansas City

We’ll start with the Chiefs and their run game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a nice game on limited volume, rushing seven times for 42 yards and catching all three of his targets for two touchdowns. CEH was the clear lead back early in the game, spelled by Jerick McKinnon, who saw eight opportunities of his own. Preseason hype-monster Isaiah Pacheco saw 12 opportunities, leading the team, but 10 of those came on the game’s final two drives when the Chiefs were up by a ton and were pulling their starters. I’m seeing some Pacheco hype out there, and personally, I’m not buying it. I think he’s a reasonable talent and it’s not impossible that his role grows throughout the season but since almost all of his Week 1 work came in garbage time, and CEH performed well, I don’t think there’s any changing of the guard happening yet. I’m viewing CEH as the RB1 (albeit with no realistic shot at 20+ carries because that’s not how the Chiefs offense operates), McKinnon as the RB2, and Pacheco as the RB3. CEH is slightly overpriced for his likeliest workload (I’d expect to see him in the $7k range), McKinnon looks like a screaming value at $2,600, while Pacheco is overpriced at $4,400; and he could carry a decent amount of ownership based on his Week 1 performance so it isn’t even a “pay up to be contrarian” situation. Personally, I’m X’ing out Pacheco and aiming to be overweight on McKinnon, absent news later in the week that changes things. 


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By Dwprix >>


  • Teams combined for 54 & 62 pts last season
  • Teams split games: LAC 30 @ KC 24 // KC 34 @ LAC 28 (OT)
  • Total this week is currently 54.5
  • Chiefs are 3.5 pt home favorites
  • KC scored the most points of any team in WK 1 (44)
  • LAC hadn’t been held to 24 or less in 6 straight games until last week

Patrick Mahomes

  • Mahomes was the QB1 across all scoring formats & overall player in STD & ½ pt PPR last week (#2 in PPR)
  • 30:39:360:5 TDs
  • LAC allowed 22:37:295:2 TDs:3 INTs to Derek Carr
  • Carr was sacked 5 times vs LAC D
  • Mahomes wasn’t sacked last week 
  • KC took the 3rd least sacks last regular season on the 2nd most pass attempts

Travis Kelce

  • Kelce ran a route on 33 snaps & pass blocked on one last week
  • In games w/o Tyreek 2019: 7:107:1TD-9 tgts // 7:89-8 tgts // 7:85-8 tgts // 4:70-10 tgts // 2022: 8:121:1 TD-9 tgts // Averages: 7:94-8.8 tgts
  • TE1 across all scoring formats
  • Among non-QBs, he finished 10th overall in PPR (26.1) & DK (29.1) // 9th overall in ½ pt/FanDuel (22.1)
  • LAC gave up 11.9 DK pts to TEs last week (8th most)
  • Kelce has averaged 8.3 rec:109 yds:1 TD-11.3 tgts over his last 4 vs LAC


  • Routes run (of 44): MVS-35 // JuJu-35 // Hardman-27 // Justin Watson-9 // Sky Moore-7 
  • Tgts: JuJu-8 // MVS-4 // Hardman-6 // Watson-1 // Moore-1
  • Mecole Hardman led team with 3 RZ targets (Kelce & CEH saw 2 each)
  • LAC allowed 40.8 DK pts to WRs (11th most)
  • Davante Adams vs LAC: 10:141:1TD-17 tgts


  • Snaps (of 70): CEH-27 // McKinnon-27 // Isaiah Pacheco-16
  • Routes Run:Tgts: CEH-15:3 // McKinnon-18:4 // Pacheco-4:0
  • CEH rush // pass: 12:62:1TD // 3:32:2TD 
  • McKinnon rush // pass: 4:22 // 3:27
  • Pacheco rush: 12:62:1TD 
  • Pacheco only saw 2 carries in the 1st half. His other 10 came after KC was ahead 44-15.
  • LAC allowed 20.2 DK pts last week vs LV to RBs
  • Josh Jacobs: 10:57 rush // 1:16:1TD pass

Justin Herbert 

  • Herbert has a rush TD in 3 of 4 games vs KC
  • His averages vs KC: Pass 23:35:283 yds:2.5 TDs // Rush 15 yds:.75 TDs
  • Herbert completed passes to nine receivers last week
  • He had eight total incompletions
  • 26:36:279:3 TDs
  • KC D allowed to Kyler Murray last week: Pass 22:34:193:2 TDs // Rush 5:29 


  • Keenan Allen injured his hamstring last week towards the end of the 2nd qtr & will likely miss this week
  • Pass snaps of 35: Mike Williams-32 // Josh Palmer 25 // DeAndre Carter 14 // Allen-13
  • Herbert targeted 11 players on 34 attempts
  • 7 players saw 4 targets (Allen, Carter, Everett, Ekeler, Mckitty, Williams, & Palmer)
  • Herbert & Mahomes were the only QBs to throw at least 3 TDs w/o an INT last week
  • They were also 2 of 3 QBs that didn’t get sacked (Mariotta)

Austin Ekeler

  • Ekeler played 33 snaps (49%) & saw 14 carries (45%)
  • Josh Kelley played 18 (27%) & Sony Michel 16 (24%)
  • ARZ RBs vs KC caught 8:62-10 tgts
  • LAC RBs caught 6:50-6 tgts (Ekeler 4:36)
  • Ekeler had scored at least one TD in 8 straight games before last week


  • Passing snaps: Gerald Everett-23 // Tre’ McKitty-13
  • Everett 3:54:1 TD-4 tgts // McKitty 3:24:1 Fumble-4 tgts
  • McKitty was the lowest graded TE on LAC’s offense last week (PFF)
  • KC gave up one TD to Zach Ertz last week

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 18th 1:00pm Eastern

Dolphins (
20.25) at

Ravens (

Over/Under 44.0


Key Matchups
Dolphins Run D
21st DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Ravens Run O
1st DVOA/3rd Yards per carry
Dolphins Pass D
18th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per pass
Ravens Pass O
4th DVOA/4th Yards per pass
Ravens Run D
7th DVOA/27th Yards allowed per carry
Dolphins Run O
3rd DVOA/1st Yards per carry
Ravens Pass D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per pass
Dolphins Pass O
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards per pass


By Hilow >>
  • Both teams ranked in the top seven in pass rate over expectation and pass rate over expectation on first down in Week 1.
  • Interesting setup where both offenses project to lean pass heavy while simultaneously utilizing slow pace of play.
  • Both teams are likely to end the season in the top five in blitz rate on defense.
  • Expect both teams to primarily lean pass-heavy with primary emphasis over the short-to-intermediate middle of the field.


Mike McDaniel gave us a glimpse into how the Dolphins are likely to operate this season in Week 1 – with one interesting twist. We witnessed the “standard Shanahan tree” slow pace of play (31st overall and 27th situation-neutral) and Josh Boyer swarming defense, but the team left Week 1 with the highest pass rate over expectation value and highest pass rate over expectation on first down in the league. It takes a lot of speculation as to why we saw the high pass rates last week (which could be anything from a specific game plan against the Patriots, to an intent to mask a bottom 10 offensive line, to making a statement with his newly acquired alpha wide receiver), but I tentatively expect the aggression to continue. Consider this – Miami averaged a paltry 2.41 yards per running back carry against the Patriots last week but 8.2 yards per pass attempt and 11.7 yards per completion. That said, there are multiple signs pointing to increased pass rates continuing forward to Week 2 against the Ravens, which we’ll get into further below.

Speaking of the ground game, man, oh man, did this unit fail to get anything going last week. Not only did we see a putrid 2.41 yards per running back carry, but the offensive line lacked any real push up front, and the outside zone run scheme was almost nonexistent; the latter of which could be a big issue considering Miami brought in two running backs best suited to B-gap and off-tackle rushing. I expect we might see a similar game plan to what the Jets decided to do last week against these Ravens – throw the football (and a lot – okay, probably not 59 times, but, yeah, a lot). And that wasn’t just an anomaly – Baltimore has not ranked lower than third in the league in rush attempts against per game since 2018, when they finished fifth in the metric. The combination of Brandon Williams (no longer with the team) and Michael Pierce (starting nose tackle) have ranked no lower than third in run-stopping metrics each of the previous five seasons. Pair that with an aggressive blitz and defense that plays man coverage and cover-1 at some of the highest rates in the league (this remained relatively consistent in Week 1 under new defensive coordinator Mike McDonald, who received the in-house promotion after the departure of Wink Martindale) and we’re likely to see the Dolphins side with an aerial-first attack once again in Week 2.

The Dolphins pass offense exhibited many of the characteristics we should expect based on the Shanahan tree in Week 1, with 12-of-33 pass attempts coming within five yards of the line of scrimmage, five attempts 20+ yards downfield, and 9-of-16 intermediate attempts (five to 15 yards downfield) going to pass-catchers over the middle of the field. Basically, whether it was due to scheme or quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s relative lack of downfield acumen, this pass offense operated under horizontally spread basic concepts in Week 1 with sparsely utilized downfield attempts built from there. Expect McDaniel to continue to utilize the speed of his primary skill position players to put strain on opposing defenses in the horizontal plane, with the goal being to get the ball into their hands in space. Tyreek Hill saw a massive 12-of-33 pass attempts directed his way in Week 1 (36.4% team target market share), setting up an interesting matchup against what is highly likely to be primary coverage from Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters (should he make his return from a torn ACL). The best on-paper matchup for Miami pass-catchers falls into whichever wide receiver sees the most slot snaps, but Miami utilizes enough pre-snap motion and misdirection that on-paper matchups become less relevant. Baltimore starting nickel corner Kyle Fuller was lost for the season in Week 1 due to a torn ACL, leaving starting duties to 2021 third-round pick Brandon Stephens, who posted just a 33% man coverage success rate last year on a 52.1% man coverage rate – again highlighting the heavy man principles the Ravens defense typically operates under. Stephens also allowed a hefty 120.2 passer rating and 2.00 fantasy points per target in his primary coverage, each of which are extremely poor marks. These shortcomings, paired with a low route participation rate from tight end Mike Gesicki, leave Miami with a very clear (and potentially concentrated) path of least resistance through the air. Finally, given Baltimore’s heavy blitz rates (31.1% in 2021 and 30.6% in Week 1), expect Miami to continue to lean towards a ball-out-quick primary aerial game plan. 


The Ravens approached their Week 1 dismantling of the Jets almost exactly as we had expected, finishing the game with the week’s seventh-ranked pass rate over expectation (as we talked about last week, this was the most likely game plan for the Ravens with their backfield and offensive line in the shape it was in entering the week), heavy 21 and 12-personnel usage (fullback Patrick Ricard the most snaps of any back, Rashod Bateman led the wide receivers in snap rate at just 66%, and both Isaiah Likely and Josh Oliver played more than 34% of the offensive snaps), and a stifling defense. Injuries continued to be an issue for Baltimore, however, as left tackle Ja’Wuan James and nickel corner Kyle Fuller were lost for the season due to a torn Achilles and torn ACL, respectively. Keep an eye on practice reports out of Baltimore throughout the week as all of starting left tackle Ronnie Staley, running back J.K. Dobbins, and cornerback Marcus Peters are attempting to make their return to the lineup following prolonged absences. Regardless of Dobbins’ game day status, I expect the Ravens to continue a spread aerial attack bias due to the mounting injuries to their offensive line and relative lack of health of their backfield (newcomer running back Kenyan Drake waltzed into the building and led the backfield in running back opportunities by a hefty margin after being with the franchise for all of 11 days in Week 1).

The loss of left tackle Ju’Wuan James in Week 1, paired with the absences of left tackle Ronnie Staley and running backs J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, leaves the Ravens run game in unfortunate yet familiar territory heading into Week 2. I’d expect more of the same this week regardless of whether or not Staley and/or Dobbins return to the lineup as I wouldn’t immediately expect either to play heavy snaps after prolonged absences, meaning we’re likely to see running back Kenyan Drake (more suited for a dynamic role than Mike Davis or Justice Hill) and fullback Patrick Ricard lead the team in snap rate in the backfield once more. Considering the fact that the Ravens ended Week 1 with a low 41.2% overall rush rate in a game they led handily throughout, we can safely assume this backfield should largely be left alone for fantasy purposes.

Tight end Mark Andrews led Baltimore pass-catchers in snap rate and route participation rate in Week 1, which should continue throughout the season. Behind Andrews, de facto alpha wide receiver Rashod Bateman finished top amongst wide receivers in snap rate but was edged out by the electric Devin Duvernay in route participation rate. That said, no Baltimore wide receiver played more than 66% of the offensive snaps in Week 1, leaving efficiency and touchdowns as the likeliest contributors to fantasy value moving forward. The most telling part of the Ravens Week 1 game against the Jets was the fact that they ended with a 58.8% overall pass rate in a game they controlled with their defense throughout, meaning we can safely assume a floor of 30-33 pass attempts for quarterback Lamar Jackson with ceiling for much, much more (his 30 pass attempts in Week 1 came on only 51 total offensive plays run from scrimmage). Now consider the outside-in zone concepts and heavy blitz rates employed by the Miami defense and we’re likelier than not to see elevated pass rates utilizing the short-to-intermediate areas of the field as the primary areas of attack through the air for the Ravens.


Eventual upside from this game depends largely on how each defense performs in the red zone, as we can expect each team to lean pass-heavy with a focus over the short-to-intermediate middle of the field. Basically, each offense should theoretically find success in their primary means of attack (Dolphins via schemed short-to-intermediate passing against heavy man coverage principles and Ravens via short-to-intermediate passing due to necessity against outside-in heavy zone concepts and heavy blitz rates), meaning we’re likely to see each offense achieve some level of success between the 20s. Combine those thoughts with the relative slow pace of play but elevated pass rates from each offense and we’re likely to see an environment develop where each team’s primary pass-catchers (Tyreek Hill and Mark Andrews) carry elevated individual floors but would require either extreme red zone efficiency or busted coverages to send the game environment into the range of “had to have it.” That said, consider this game firmly in the “primary pieces carry nice floors and theoretical ceiling remains high” bucket for Week 2.


JM >>
  • I wish the price would drop on Jaylen Waddle…
    • In the bucket of “it’s easy to take the tiny sample size of Week 1 and assume it tells us everything we need to know going forward” (does that name even fit on the bucket?), it’s easy to assume that Tyreek Hill’s 12 targets last week and Waddle’s five targets last week tell us everything we need to know about the way these two will be used this year; but even if Hill is the clear alpha, shouldn’t we expect — given Waddle’s talent — that there will be at least a handful of games this year in which Waddle is the target leader and/or outproduces Hill?
    • Unfortunately, Waddle is only $700 cheaper than Hill, making him tougher to pull the trigger on in smaller-field contests, where it’s often -EV (negative expected value — i.e., something that would lose you money over time) to add unnecessary risk; in mid- to large-field tourneys, however, Waddle is a very interesting piece here
    • That said, it’s unlikely that ownership gets too far out of hand on Hill this week to where the leverage would make the “Waddle risk” more worthwhile — which keeps Hill very much in the conversation as well, in tourneys of all sizes
  • Same as Hilow laid out above, I’m seeing this as a spot that very easily could pop, given the weapons involved (Lamar // Andrews // Tyreek // Waddle // Edmonds) — and yet I don’t necessarily see myself betting on a scenario in which that actually happens
  • If I were betting on that scenario, the players on that list in the previous bullet point would be featured heavily
  • While I may not end up building around this game as a core focus, I do want to keep in mind that individual pieces from this game can still contribute to a tourney win without the game environment getting out of hand (i.e., one-offs from that group — particularly Andrews // Tyreek // Edmonds) are in play for me in tourneys of every style/size
  • Edmonds is particularly interesting, in that he’s an affordable hedge against almost every way this game could play out
    • Dolphins dominate? — Edmonds gets extra work on the ground, and is likely scoring a touchdown or two
    • Baltimore dominates? — Edmonds is getting plenty of work in the passing game (and as we see in Alex88’s research in the Matchups tab of this Edge game: these are not just underneath targets)
    • Game blows up? — Edmonds is probably involved
    • Neither team puts up a ton of points, but one or two players from this game are valuable through usage, scores, or big plays? — Edmonds is a candidate to be the name that emerges from that list
    • Given his pass game role, pretty much any game environment will come with Edmonds securing a non-awful haul of points for his price (he shouldn’t have too many games this year when he finishes below the 10.5 points he banked last week), and there are plenty of ways he could pop for 20 to 25 DK points at only $5.2k
Hilow >>

The elevated pass rates exhibited by each team are likely overshadowed by slow pace of play and elite secondaries. That means I’m more interested in finding any spots of guaranteed volume (or places volume could lead to the bonus on DraftKings plus chances at a score) as opposed to truly looking to leverage the game environment for stacks (that’s a long way of saying I’m currently most interested in hunting for one-offs from this game). That discussion has to start with Mark Andrews, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle. Of note here, Hill and Waddle played the exact same number of snaps in Week 1 (67% snap rate), and my analysis of this offense coming into the season was that we needed schemed usage for either to unlock their ceiling (we saw Hill get that schemed usage in Week 1 and Waddle not), meaning neither should be regarded as carrying a bankable floor – this removes them from my late week condensed player pool. I’ll break it down further like this:

  • Mark Andrews carries the best combination of floor and ceiling from this game – my ultimate interest and exposure will likely come down to ownership projections and expected leverage, which I won’t fully get through until the End Around and The Slate podcast.
  • Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle carry paths to the bonus and a score (30ish DraftKings points), meaning they should be firmly in our MME player pool.
  • Rashod Bateman, Devin Duvernay, and Cedrick Wilson carry theoretical upside but it comes with gross-looking floors as none of these guys cracked 67% snap rates in Week 1.
  • Both quarterbacks carry theoretical ceiling but would likely require the game environment erupting to unlock it (in other words, are both best played in game stacks, which I am personally not likely to utilize).

By Alex88 >>


  • Middling game total of 44.5 (9th highest out of 16 games)
  • MIA was the slowest team in seconds per play in Week 1, per
  • BAL was the 8th slowest

Tua Tagovailoa

  • Week 2 DK salary of $5,600
  • Per Fantasy Lab’s Trends tool, Tua’s average expected DK pts in 22 career games is 18.15, but his average actual pts is 15.66
  • He’s scored 25+ DK pts three times: 25.36 @ JAX // 28.54 vs. ATL // 31.04 vs. KC
  • In a season in which they suffered multiple injuries to their secondary, BAL ranked 31st in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Starting CB Kyle Fuller, a two-time Pro Bowler, tore his ACL in Week 1 and is out for the year
  • Notable opposing QB scores last season: Carson Wentz 26.58 // Derek Carr 28 // Patrick Mahomes 28.02 // Joe Burrow 30.64 // Burrow 41.1

MIA Passing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Jaylen Waddle 66.7% // Tyreek Hill 66.7% // Durham Smythe 63.3%
  • Target share: Hill 36.4% // Waddle 15.2% // Smythe 6.1%
  • Per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer, Hill ($7,100) finished third in target share among all WRs, 10th in air yard share, & 5th in WOPR
  • Hill had four games priced between $8,500-$8,900 last season
  • He scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary four times
  • Waddle’s Week 2 DK salary of $6,400 is tied for his second highest cost
  • He scored 25+ DK pts three times last year
  • BAL ranked 30th in DK ppg allowed last season (23rd in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Darnell Mooney 26.1 // Diontae Johnson 33.5 // Ja’Marr Chase 37.1 // Tee Higgins 46.4
  • Smythe ($2,700) severely out-snapped Mike Gesicki in Week 1 but only had two targets to Gesicki’s one
  • BAL ranked 27th in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (21st in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Noah Fant 16.6 // C.J. Uzomah 24.1 // Travis Kelce 26.9 // Darren Waller 29.5

MIA Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Chase Edmonds 63.3% // Raheem Mostert 41.7%
  • Target share: Edmonds 12.1% // Mostert 3%
  • Attempts: Edmonds 12 // Mostert 5
  • MIA had just three carries in the red zone: Tua Tagovailoa 2 // Mostert 1
  • Edmonds ($5,200) ranked fifth among all Week 1 RBs in air yard share, fourth in ADoT, & 13th in WOPR (per 4for4)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary four times in 56 career games
  • Mostert ($4,400) went down in Week 1 last season, but has scored 20+ DK pts five times in 27 career games
  • BAL ranked 12th in DK ppg allowed to RBs (20th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: D’Andre Swift 23.7 // Joe Mixon 31.5 // Jonathan Taylor 34.9

Lamar Jackson

  • Lamar ($7,400 in Week 2) finished 9th in Pass Expected Points Added per Play in Week 1 (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • He was 2nd in air yards & 1st in ADoT
  • In 54 career games, Lamar averages 24.36 DK pts
  • Led all QBs in rushing attempts per game for four straight seasons
  • His average rushing attempts per game, starting with the 2018 season: 9.2 // 11.7 // 10.6 // 11.1
  • In Week 1, he ran just six times for 17 yds
  • MIA ranked 8th in DK ppg allowed to QBs last season and finished 3rd in Week 1
  • Notable opposing QB scores allowed last year: Derek Carr 25.24 // Josh Allen 29.46 // Tom Brady 40.74

BAL Passing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Mark Andrews 83.9% // Rashod Bateman 66.1% // Devin Duvernay 51.8%
  • Target share: Andrews 23.3% // Bateman 16.7% // Duvernay 13.3%
  • Bateman ($5,500) ranked second in ADoT among all WRs in Week 1 (per 4for4)
  • He’s yet to score 4x his Week 2 DK salary
  • Duvernay ($4,300) averaged 2.9 targets per game last season (finished with 4 in Week 1)
  • Scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary once
  • MIA ranked 16th in DK ppg allowed to WRs last season (11th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Marvin Jones 26 // Mike Evans 32.3 // Elijah Moore 32.6 // Antonio Brown 34.4
  • Andrews ($6,400) ranked third in target share in Week 1, third in air yard share, 1st in ADoT, & fourth in WOPR (per 4for4)
  • His Week 2 DK salary is $1,000 off his peak last season
  • He scored 4x his Week 2 salary four times last year
  • MIA ranked 17th in DK ppg allowed to TEs (18th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Andrews 18.3 // Mo Alie-Cox 19.2 // Kyle Pitts 26.3

BAL Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Kenyan Drake 58.9% // Justice Hill 19.6% // Mike Davis 12.5%
  • Target share: Hill 6.7% // Drake 3.3%
  • Attempts: Drake 11 // Hill 2 // Davis 2
  • Red zone touches: Drake 2 // Lamar Jackson 1
  • J.K. Dobbins ($5,300) practiced fully on Wednesday
  • Drake ($4,800) has only hit 20 DK pts once in his career
  • MIA ranked ninth in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (eighth in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Brandon Bolden 20.6 // Leonard Fournette 21 // D’Onta Foreman 22.2 // Jonathan Taylor 23.4 // Peyton Barber 26.2

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 18th 1:00pm Eastern

Jets (
16) at

Browns (

Over/Under 38.5


Key Matchups
Jets Run D
14th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
21st DVOA/25th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
3rd DVOA/7th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
26th DVOA/13th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
5th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
32nd DVOA/13th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
2nd DVOA/6th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
31st DVOA/31st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The Jets looked lost offensively against the Ravens but their game plan indicated a clear understanding of the path of least resistance from their coaching staff.
  • Should that dynamic game planning and game calling continue into Week 2, we’re likeliest to see a more balanced approach against the Browns.
  • The Browns game plan remains very clear: split a heavy rush workload amongst their two elite backs behind one of the league’s top offensive lines (and hide the fact that they have Jacoby Brissett at quarterback).
  • The path of least resistance is likely to align with how each team chooses to bias their attack.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Jets found themselves in a difficult situation for Week 1, eventually playing without their starting quarterback and two high-profile injuries to their offensive line (Mekhi Becton was lost for the season with a knee injury, and fill-in veteran starter Duane Brown was placed on IR ahead of their opener). I was highly interested to see how they approached the game plan against a Ravens defense with injuries in the secondary, and it was made apparent very swiftly that head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Mike LaFluer had no issues turning to the pass when the clear path of least resistance called for it. As such, we should start our exploration into the likeliest plan of attack for the Jets with their opponent, the Cleveland Browns. Joe Woods utilizes heavy zone concepts, an athletic 4-2-5 front, and low blitz rates to generate organic pressure in the backfield and keep the play in front of the second level through a base cover-2/nickel package secondary. When you combine the prevent nature of the Cleveland defense with the expected high rush rates of their offense behind one of the league’s top offensive lines, we’re left with a likeliest plan of attack that should shift a little more conservative from the Jets this week. As in, I don’t think we’re likeliest to see 59 pass attempts versus just 17 total rush attempts from the Jets in Week 2. Furthermore, we’re highly unlikely to see the Jets run 76 offensive plays due to their opponent and their offensive tendencies (the Jets were afforded that many plays run from scrimmage last week due to the pass-leaning tendencies of the Ravens paired with untimely and costly turnovers).

Staying true to their preseason word, the backfield materialized as a near 50-50 split in snap rate and opportunity share, with Michael Carter the “starter” and lead rusher and electric rookie Breece Hall the change of pace and long down and distance to go back. The negative game flow and the inability of their receivers to shake heavy man coverages led to the backfield seeing a combined 19 of 59 pass attempts directed their way, good for a lofty 32.2% running back target market share split 10 targets for Hall and nine for Carter. The Jets mustered 4.06 adjusted line yards through their offensive line in Week 1, which is actually quite remarkable considering the Ravens defensive line ran the top marks in the league last week. That makes sense when looking at the retooled offensive line for the Jets, with the injury concerns coming at the left tackle position (which also helps to explain a bottom-five adjusted sack rate). In all, the matchup yields a slightly below-average 4.13 net-adjusted line yards metric in what should be an area of emphasis for the Jets.

Elijah Moore ran as the clear alpha of this pass-catching corps in Week 1 with a hefty 89% snap rate and 73.3% route participation rate but saw only seven targets (a lowly 12.7% targets per route run, which, for comparison, was leagues below his 24% targets per route run value in 2021). In what would seem like another anomaly, Moore was targeted on 31% of his routes against man coverage versus 18% versus zone in 2021. In a matchup against heavy zone principles, we could see Moore put up modest numbers once more if his targets per route run values to start the season are an indication of a more spread offensive game plan. Corey Davis remained the clear WR2 on this offense behind Moore, playing 57 offensive snaps (68%) compared to 41 for rookie Garrett Wilson (49%) and 39 for Braxton Berrios (46%). All indications point to this split behind Moore remaining consistent moving forward unless (or until) Wilson asserts himself on the perimeter. At tight end, Tyler Conklin dominated the snaps and opportunities, parlaying a 92% snap rate into seven targets (CJ Uzomah mustered 27% of the offensive snaps and saw zero targets while Lawrence Cager saw a 12% snap rate and one target). That said, this is historically an offense that utilizes the tight ends sparingly in the passing game, which again transpired in Week 1.

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

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  • Note 1: if you don’t utilize the Matchups tab at the top of NFL Edge games, you’re doing things wrong!
    • (My process :: I go through every game on the slate four times myself, thinking through different angles and researching different aspects each time; I then read the Edge writeup first and the Matchups research second, finalize my thoughts, and pop in my Interpretations)
  • A data point from Matchups that really stands out to me this week: Cleveland gave up three monster games to quarterbacks last season, but those QBs were Kyler, Mahomes, and Herbert; Cleveland gave up three monster games to wideout last season, but those wideouts were Davante Adams, Mike Williams, and Tyreek Hill
  • The Jets are implied to score under 17 real-life points, which would make it tremendously difficult for them to produce a slate-winner from any individual player
  • Due to the low prices on Elijah Moore and Corey Davis (and the low bar they therefore have to clear in order to be part of a tourney-winning roster), I would be fine playing either guy as a one-off; that said, the muddy path to a two-TD game from either guy makes it much sharper, by the numbers, to only play these guys as limited pieces of large-field builds, rather than “hoping to guess right” in smaller-field play (i.e., I like these guys, but neither will make my tighter player pool)
  • One of the “plays of the week” is “Cleveland backfield”; unfortunately, “Cleveland backfield” is two guys, each of whom is priced for ceiling — meaning your best case in rostering them is typically “the score you need to have,” and your worst case if avoiding them is almost never going to be “they put up a score I had to have in order to win a tourney, and now I’m dead in the water because they weren’t on my roster”
    • Put all that together, and neither of these guys will make my late-week pool
  • The Browns’ defense is capable of making noise in this one, but if the game stays close enough, the Jets are likely to fail from “low time of possession and a balanced offense that doesn’t score enough points” — which limits paths to big plays for the Cleveland DST
  • As a limited-entry player, I’ll likely have nothing at all from this game

By Alex88 >>


  • Tied for the lowest game total of Week 2
  • NYJ’s implied total of 16.75 is the third lowest
  • The 6.5 pt spread is the seventh widest
  • NYJ finished Week 1 second in fewest seconds per play
  • CLE ranked 26th
  • Excluding two teams that played in overtime, NYJ and CLE were third and fourth (respectively) in total offensive plays in Week 1
  • CLE managed that feat by having the highest percentage time of possession

Joe Flacco

  • Finished 13th in PFF passing grade in Week 1
  • In Week 1, Flacco ($5,100 in Week 2) finished 24th in Pass Expected Points Added per Play, eighth in Play Action Expected Points Added per Play, & 13th in air yards (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • He has one 20+ pt DK score since 2020
  • CLE ranked 10th in DK ppg allowed to QBs last year (18th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Kyler Murray 25.76 // Patrick Mahomes 36.28 // Justin Herbert 45.82

NYJ Passing Attack

  • NYJ’s offensive line is ranked 24th after Week 1, per PFF
  • Week 1 snap share: Tyler Conklin 91.7% // Elijah Moore 89.3% // Corey Davis 67.9% // Garrett Wilson 48.8%
  • Target share: Davis 15.3% // Wilson 13.6% // Moore 11.9% // Conklin 11.9%
  • Target counts: Davis 9 // Wilson 8 // Moore 7 // Conklin 7
  • Moore ($5,000) led the team in target share last season at 12.8%
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary three times in 11 career games
  • Davis ($4,600) has scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary twice in his past 10 games
  • Wilson’s ($4,400) eight targets produced his first NFL stat line of 4:52
  • CLE ranked 10th in DK ppg allowed to WRs last year (16th in Week 1)
  • Just three opposing WRs scored 25+ DK pts vs. CLE, but all three put up GPP winning scores: Davante Adams 36.4 // Mike Williams 39.5 // Tyreek Hill 40.1
  • Conklin ($3,400) finished Week 1 ranked sixth in total targets and in end zone target share among all TEs (per 4for4)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary three times in 28 career games
  • CLE ranked 18th in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (13th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Mark Andrews 16.5 // Hunter Henry 19.7 // Travis Kelce 25.6 // Andrews 31.5

NYJ Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Michael Carter 59.5% // Breece Hall 45.2%
  • Target share: Hall 16.9% // Carter 15.3%
  • Targets: Hall 10 // Carter 9
  • Attempts: Carter 10 // Hall 6
  • Red zone touches: Hall 2 // Carter 1
  • Carter ($5,200) finished Week 1 ranked 12th in Rush Yards Over Expected per Carry, first in broken tackle %, 12th in High Value Touch %, 12th in target share, & 15th in WOPR (per 4for4)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary just once in 15 career games (32.2 vs. CIN)
  • Hall ($5,200) ranked 11th in High Value Touch %, seventh in target share, seventh in air yard share, eighth in ADoT, & sixth in WOPR
  • CLE ranked 13th in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (10th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: D’Andre Swift 25.6 // Joe Mixon 28 // Rhamondre Stevenson 30.4 // Najee Harris 32.6 // Austin Ekeler 33.9

Jacoby Brissett

  • Finished 29th in PFF passing grade in Week 1
  • In Week 1, Brissett ($5,400) finished seventh in EPA/play when blitzed (per 4for4)
  • He hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts since 2019
  • NYJ ranked 27th in DK ppg allowed to QBs last year (24th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Mac Jones 25.18 // Taysom Hill 26.3 // Tom Brady 30.4
  • In 18 games, QB’s averaged 20.18 DK ppg vs. NYJ

CLE Passing Attack

  • CLE’s offensive line is ranked second after Week 1, per PFF
  • Week 1 snap share: David Njoku 88.8% // Amari Cooper 82.5% // Donovan Peoples-Jones 82.5%
  • Target share: DPJ 32.4% // Cooper 17.6% // Harrison Bryant 11.8%
  • Targets: DPJ 11 // Cooper 6 // Bryant 4 // Njoku 1
  • DPJ ($4,400) previous high in targets in a single game was eight
  • Per 4for4, among all WRs in Week 1, he ranked fourth in target share, 10th in end zone target share, 14th in air yard share, & 7th in WOPR
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary twice in 21 career games
  • Cooper ($5,400) has scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary four times in his past 36 games
  • NYJ ranked eighth in DK ppg allowed to WRs last year (20th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Cyril Grayson 20.1 // Jaylen Waddle 20.6 // Devin Duvernay 21.4 // Stefon Diggs 23.1 // Diggs 33.2
  • Njoku ($3,700) averages 3.7 targets per game (per StatMuse)
  • His 30.9 DK pt explosion @ LAC last season was the first time he’d ever scored 15+ DK pts
  • NYJ ranked 28th in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (17th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Rob Gronkowski 21.5 // Kyle Pitts 29.9 // Dallas Goedert 31.5

CLE Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Kareem Hunt 56.2% // Nick Chubb 52.5%
  • Target share: Hunt 11.8% // Chubb 2.9%
  • Attempts: Chubb 22 // Hunt 11
  • Red zone touches: Hunt 5 // Chubb 2
  • Hunt ($6,600) finished Week 1 ranked fifth in broken tackle % (per 4for4)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary twice in 35 games as a Brown
  • Chubb ($7,100) finished Week 1 ranked sixth in Rush Yards Over Expected per Carry & ninth in Rush Expected Points Added per Carry
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary seven times in 45 games since 2019
  • NYJ ranked 32nd in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (sixth in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Joe Mixon 25.1 // Devin Singletary 25.2 // Alvin Kamara 27.5 // Christian McCaffrey 27.7 // Damien Harris 28.3 // Derrick Henry 28.7 // Jonathan Taylor 37

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 18th 1:00pm Eastern

24) at

Lions (

Over/Under 48.0


Key Matchups
Commanders Run D
16th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/5th Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
32nd DVOA/31st Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
9th DVOA/9th Yards per pass
Lions Run D
3rd DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
16th DVOA/7th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
16th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/27th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The field is likely to have a lot of certainties about this game, considering the different things these two teams showed us in Week 1.
  • The certainties I find from these two teams are simply this – the Lions play fast and like to run the football, and the Commanders have a head coach and offensive designer that weigh opponents heavily in their weekly game plan.
  • D’Andre Swift got his ankle rolled up on early in Week 1 and missed practice to start the week – monitor this situation closely as the team elevated Justin Jackson from the practice squad on Wednesday.
  • Wide range of outcomes from the game environment itself, likely dependent on the health of Swift and the Detroit offensive line, but a likely narrow distribution of workload based on individual team design.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

The Commanders shocked the football world with their offensive game plan to start the season, coming out (and remaining) aggressive through the air with a new quarterback and new pass-catchers. Their Week 1 pass rate over expectation landed at number four in the league, behind only Miami, Kansas City, and Buffalo, and their pace of play landed in the top half of the league. The interesting part, to me, is the fact that Washington boasts a top 10 offensive line by all metrics, leading me to believe the pass-heavy game plan for Week 1 was exactly that – a specific game plan tailored to the opponent. As such, I am a little hesitant to make any sweeping assertions based on the first game of the year for this team. Consider this, Washington ran 69 offensive plays in Week 1 but fed their running backs only 17 combined carries, the two primary running backs combined to see 11 of 41 Carson Wentz targets directed their way, and head coach Ron Rivera’s favorite offensive toy (Curtis Samuel) is healthy and a large part of the offensive game plan. Of those three major Week 1 trends, it is likeliest to me that the first two were very game plan specific based on the opponent, while the latter signals more of a trend considering the history between the two. Either way, the Lions pose a stiffer test than what the Commanders saw in Week 1 against the Jaguars. Consider me highly interested to see their offensive tendencies against a new opponent.

As brought out above, the running backs saw only 17 combined carries but 11 combined targets in Week 1. Those running backs were exclusively Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic, who played snap rates of 64% and 40% and saw running back opportunities of 22 (14 carries and eight targets) and six (three carries and three targets), respectively. Let’s say that again – Antonio Gibson saw eight (!!!) targets in Week 1 and was the undoubted lead back! Okay, I wanted to emphasize that because of all the stink that the man came out of camp with, again highlighting just how little we know to start the year (which is honestly amplified heading into Week 2 because we now have all these fresh, new biases to contend with from a one-game sample – which is also the reason I wrote the lead for the Commanders the way I did because this team is highly likely to have some sweeping assertions made about them by the industry and the field when the fact of the matter is we really don’t know how their offense will operate moving forward). Having said that, we can safely assume that Gibson is the 1A of this backfield, at least for as long as Brian Robinson remains out. The pure rushing matchup is a good one against a young defensive line and team that just allowed the Eagles to rush for 5.5 yards per carry last week.

Circling back to the Curtis Samuel piece, I would say with a high degree of confidence that his usage in Week 1 is likely to continue for as long as he remains healthy. Let’s look at the facts. Ron Rivera coached Samuel in Carolina, where he was utilized in a similar way to what we saw in Week 1 (somewhat of a Swiss Army knife, with carries, pre-snap motions, sweeps, the works). Rivera left Carolina and then sought out Samuel in free agency, bringing him over to Washington, who slapped him with a three-year, $34.5 million deal. Samuel then gets hurt and misses most of 2021, and the community forgets about their connection. Best Ball drafters forgot; I can guarantee that much. That said, his average depth of target in Week 1 was a paltry 1.4 yards, and he amassed a total of 14.0 air yards, which is laughably hard to do. He also was the clear WR3 from a snap rate perspective, handling only 71% of the offensive snaps. All of that to say, Curtis Samuel is someone we need to be aware of for how much schemed usage we can expect, but that schemed usage absolutely must be present due to the low aDOT and type of usage he’s seeing, meaning his utility is likely to depend on specific game plans and game environments – which we just got done exploring as potentially different this week compared to last. Terry McLaurin and rookie Jahan Dotson predictably led the way as far as snap rate goes (90% and 88%, respectively) but mustered only four and five targets, respectively. Again, chalk that up to a specific game plan. While the game plan regarding the rushing utilization and involvement is likely (in my mind) to change heading into Week 2, the heavy blitz rates (48.8% in Week 1, second highest in the league) the Lions showed us in Week 1 are likely to force another aerial attack based primarily on short and quick hits, meaning it might be another week where Samuel sees a spike in the schemed usage we talked about before. Logan Thomas made a surprising return to the lineup in Week 1 after suffering a devastating knee injury last season, immediately regaining the lead role. Look for John Bates to continue mixing in until Thomas is fully healthy.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

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By Alex88 >>


  • After increasing by 4.5 points since opening (largest increase, 4 pts of which went to DET’s side), this game is now the fifth highest game total in Week 2
  • DET’s implied total of 25.75 is 9th highest
  • Excluding the four teams that played overtime games in Week 1, both WAS & DET finished among the Top 8 teams in offensive plays & Top 10 in total offensive yardage (per
  • DET finished 4th in fewest seconds per play, per
  • Both team’s Week 1 opponents finished Top 10 in the same metric
  • Both WAS & DET converted all of their red zone trips into TDs (2 & 4, respectively)

Carson Wentz

  • In Week 1, Wentz ($5,800 in Week 2) finished 8th in Pass Expected Points Added per Play, 12th in air yards, 22nd in ADoT, & 22nd in On-Target % (per 4for4’s excellent NFL Player Stat Explorer, created by Sam Hoppen)
  • Finished 3rd in DK pts (32.7)
  • DET allowed the 5th most pts to PHI’s Jalen Hurts in Week 1
  • Wentz’s Week 1 output was his first time hitting 30 pts in nearly two years
  • In 41 career games as a visiting QB, Wentz has never scored 22+ DK pts (which is less than 4x his Week 2 salary)

WAS Passing Attack

  • WAS offensive line is ranked 7th in Week 2, per PFF
  • Week 1 snap share: Terry McLaurin 89.6% // Jahan Dotson 88.3% // Curtis Samuel 71.4% // Logan Thomas 62.3%
  • Target share: Samuel 26.8% // Thomas 14.6% // Dotson 12.2% // McLaurin 9.8%
  • McLaurin ($6,600 Week 2 DK salary) finished last season with a 23.6% target share
  • His Week 1 ADoT ranked fifth highest among all WRs (per 4for4)
  • Scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary in eight out of 45 career games
  • Priced at just $3,400 in Week 1, Dotson scored 18 DK pts
  • His Week 2 salary is now $4,200
  • Samuel ($4,600 Week 2 DK salary) ranked 14th in targets per route run
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 salary eight times in 55 career games
  • Last year, DET ranked 21st in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: A.J. Brown 28.5 // DK Metcalf 30.9 // Deebo Samuel 35.9 // Justin Jefferson 38.6 // Cooper Kupp 40.6
  • Thomas ($3,400) has scored 15+ DK pts twice in the past two seasons
  • Notable opposing TE scores allowed by DET: Albert Okwuegbunam 15.1 // Josiah Deguara 15.6 // Mark Andrews 18.9 // Kyle Pitts 19.2

WAS Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Antonio Gibson 63.6% // J.D. McKissic 40.3%
  • Target share: Gibson 19.5% // McKissic 7.3%
  • Attempts: Gibson 14 // McKissic 3
  • Per 4for4, Gibson ($6,200) ranked 12th among all RBs in % team carries, fifth in target share, second in air yard share, & third in WOPR
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary three times since 2020 (out of 30 games)
  • DET ranked 30th in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (27th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Nick Chubb 25.4 // David Montgomery 25.6 // Melvin Gordon 26.1 // Joe Mixon 26.3 // Alexander Mattison 30.3 // Rashaad Penny 35.5 // Aaron Jones 41.5

Jared Goff

  • 32nd in Success % (percentage of plays with a positive EPA), per 4for4
  • 11th in air yards & 13th in ADoT
  • Scored 25+ DK pts just once as DET’s QB
  • WAS held Trevor Lawrence to just 14.4 DK pts in Week 1
  • Last season they ranked dead last in DK ppg allowed to the position
  • Eight separate QBs scored 25+ DK pts vs. WAS last season

DET Passing Attack

  • DET offensive line is ranked 5th in Week 2, per PFF
  • Week 1 snap share: T.J. Hockenson 91.3% // Amon-Ra St. Brown 88.4% // DJ Chark 81.2%
  • Target share: Amon-Ra 32.4% // Chark 21.6% // Hockenson 18.9%
  • Goff targeted WRs at the second highest percentage in the league last week
  • After a dominating breakout performance down the stretch last season, Amon-Ra started 2022 by finishing 8th in target share among all WRs & 15th in WOPR (per 4for4)
  • His DK game log in his past seven games, in chronological order: 24.8 // 15.3 // 23.5 // 26 // 38.4 // 29.1 // 20.4
  • Amon-Ra’s $6,500 Week 2 DK salary is just $300 off his peak last season
  • Chark ($5,100) ranked 9th in air yard share, 11th in ADoT, & 17th in WOPR
  • He has five week-winning DK scores but none since the 2020 season (out of 41 games)
  • WAS ranked 29th in DK ppg allowed to WRs last year (25th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Marquez Callaway 24.5 // Emmanuel Sanders 26.4
  • Hockenson ($4,700) tied for 7th in target share among all Week 1 TEs
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 salary four times in 40 games
  • WAS ranked 19th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Robert Tonyan 16.3 // Travis Kelce 17.9 // Dalton Schultz 22.2 // Dallas Goedert 23.5

DET Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: D’Andre Swift 66.7% // Jamaal Williams 33.3%
  • Target share: Swift 8.1% // Williams 5.4%
  • Attempts: Swift 15 // Williams 11
  • Touches: Swift 18:1 // Williams 12:2
  • Red zone touches/TDs: Williams 7:2 // Swift 2:1
  • Per 4for4, Swift ($7,000) ranked second in Rush Yards Over Expected per Carry among all RBs in Week 1 & second in YPC
  • His 29.5 DK pts were his second best result
  • Swift has scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary three times in 27 games, once per season so far
  • Williams ($5,400) ranked third in % of his team’s high value touches in Week 1 (per 4for4)
  • His 16 DK pts were his second best result as a Lion
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts just once for DET (25 vs. SF in Week 1 2021)
  • WAS ranked 17th in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (23rd in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Christian McCaffrey 24.9 // Alvin Kamara 29.2 // Cordarrelle Patterson 34.6

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 18th 1:00pm Eastern

Colts (
23.25) at

Jaguars (

Over/Under 43.5


Key Matchups
Colts Run D
24th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per carry
Jaguars Run O
26th DVOA/30th Yards per carry
Colts Pass D
14th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per pass
Jaguars Pass O
13th DVOA/18th Yards per pass
Jaguars Run D
6th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per carry
Colts Run O
9th DVOA/16th Yards per carry
Jaguars Pass D
12th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per pass
Colts Pass O
17th DVOA/15th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • Both teams came out with pace during the first half of their Week 1 games, with each finishing in the top six in the league in the metric.
  • The Colts are basically “Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman or bust” as far as guaranteed volume goes, with no other player seeing more than a 77% snap rate in Week 1.
  • Trevor Lawrence exhibited the same indecision and inaccuracies that plagued his rookie season in Week 1; the Jacksonville offense is likely to continue to struggle until he adjusts to the speed of the NFL game.
  • Indianapolis should control this game through elevated rush rates and a prevent defense, likely allowing Jonathan Taylor to soak another robust workload.

How INDIANAPOLIS Will Try To Win ::

True to form under Frank Reich, the Colts ended Week 1 with the league’s sixth-lowest pass rate over expectation, even in a negative game script that saw the team trail by three scores into the fourth quarter. Indianapolis was able to run 92 offensive plays in an eventual overtime tie, affording Jonathan Taylor 31 rush attempts and seven targets, Matt Ryan 50 pass attempts, and Michael Pittman 13 targets. The big takeaways from that Week 1 contest were the 26% team target market share for Pittman (which is a tick below elite levels – I honestly was expecting that number to be a smidge higher coming into the year), the hefty 76% snap rate and 38 (!!!) running back opportunities from Jonathan Taylor (the team continued to ride him deep into the game, not shifting the focus towards Nyheim Hines in a negative game script), and the confirmation of the assumption we had about this offense behind Taylor and Pittman (in that no other pass-catcher saw more than seven targets and nine total pass-catchers received at least two targets – super spread behind the two primary pieces). What might go missed by the field is the fact that the Colts brought the pace to open the game, finishing the first half with a 25.56 seconds per play mark, ranking 6th in the league in the metric. Summing that up – expect the Colts to play fast with high rush rates, primarily focused on Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman.

Jonathan Taylor’s league takeover continues in 2022 as the electric back saw 76% of the offensive snaps, 86% of the team’s rush attempts, a 61% route participation rate (which is far above his career numbers), and a solid-yet-unspectacular 18% targets per route run rate. The one area Taylor did not see much action in was the two-minute offense, where he managed only 47% of the offensive snaps and ceded primary duties to Hines. That said, that is a hefty workload, friends. Taylor also gets the honor of running behind a top 10 offensive line in 2022, which, when combined with his dynamic skillset, allowed him to rush for a solid 5.2 yards per carry on a massive 31 carries in Week 1 (hard to maintain that level of efficiency with so many touches, but Taylor got better as the game went on). Hines should be considered the primary two-minute back and should see a handful of rush attempts per week, soaking up the majority of his value through the passing game. Of note, Hines did equal Taylor’s touches inside the five in Week 1, which was an area of the field that Taylor lapped the field in workload in 2021. The matchup on the ground should be considered middling after the Jaguars held the Commanders to 3.88 running back yards per carry a week ago.

As we touched on above, the pass offense is very much a case of “Michael Pittman and then everyone else.” Pittman played all but two offensive snaps in Week 1, which is a massive number considering that equated to 90 total snaps. No other pass-catcher played more than 77% of the offensive snaps (Parris Campbell), with the third most snaps coming from tight end Kylen Granson (55%). Yeah, behind Pittman, not much in the way of certainty here. What was interesting to me was the fact that the Colts played primarily from 11-personnel after ending the 2021 season below league average. That said, the wide receiver rotation behind Pittman was robust. Not much more to say here other than to highlight the “solid but not elite” 26% team target market share for Pittman and the increased involvement of Jonathan Taylor in the passing game through a bump to route participation rate. Of note, rookie wide receiver Alec Pierce was forced from Week 1 with a concussion, which could tighten up the wide receiver rotation slightly. Should he miss Week 2, expect Ashton Dulin to operate as the de facto WR3.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

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By LexMiraglia10 >>

Trevor Lawrence:

  • 2021 IND ranked 17th in def pass DVOA and 8th in overall def DVOA
  • IND played W1 without Shaquille Leonard, against a team they won 62-3 combined in 2021, and allowed 240:2:0 to Davis Mills in a 20-20 OT tie
  • Lawrence threw for 225+ yds in just 6/17 games in 2021
  • Lawrence’s first game with Doug Pederson: 275:1:1 vs WAS
  • Lawrence vs 2021 IND: 162:0 // 223:2


  • JAC WRs in W1: Kirk (6:117 (12)) // Zay Jones (6:65 (9)) // Marvin Jones (4:38 (6))
  • IND allowed the 8th fewest WR yds in 2021, but the 3rd most WR TDs
  • HOU WRs vs IND in W1: Cooks (7:82 (12)) // Collins (2:26 (3)) // Moore (3:31 (3))
  • Top JAC WRs vs IND in 2021: MJJ (2:35; 7:88:1) // Viska (5:62) // Treadwell (3:24:1)
  • Where JAC WRs ran routes on 45 dropbacks in W1: Kirk (39 of 41 slot) // Zay (31 of 41 wide) // MJJ (39 of 39 wide)
  • Cooks ran 29 of his 38 routes out wide


  • 2021 IND finished 3rd in def rush DVOA
  • 2021 IND allowed the 8th fewest RB rush yds & rush TDs, and 5th fewest RB DK pts/g
  • HOU RBs vs IND in W1: Burkhead (14:40, 5:30) // Pierce (11:33, 1:6)
  • JAC RBs in W1: Robinson (11:66:1, 1:3:1) // Etienne (4:47, 2:18)
  • 13 touches for Robinson, 8 touches for Etienne
  • IND may still be without stud run defender Shaq (Darius) Leonard

Matt Ryan:

  • In 2020, Rivers had just 3 games of 20+ DK pts as IND’s QB (22.3, 22.4, 28.7) after 6 in 2019 with LAC
  • In 2021, Ryan had 5 games of 20+ DK pts as ATL’s QB (22.3, 22.4, 24.6, 29, 31.5)
  • Ryan scored 20.08 in his first game with IND
  • JAC ranked last in defensive pass DVOA in 2021, with 10 QBs scoring 2+ TDs
  • Carson Wentz in W1 vs JAC: 313:4:2 (30+ DK pts)
  • Wentz threw just 29 & 34 passes vs JAC in 2021
  • IND threw the 6th fewest pass att in 2021 with Wentz (13th fewest in 2020 with Rivers)
  • Ryan threw 50 pass att in W1, though IND trailed heavily in second half & a full 10-minute OT session was played


  • Pittman had just 9 career games of 8+ tg in first 2 seasons (7 in ‘21, 2 in ‘20)
  • Pittman saw 13 tg in W1 vs HOU
  • IND points when Pittman scores 20+ DK pts: 34 // 24 // 25 // 30 // 31 // 20
  • JAC allowed the highest success rate & 4th highest yds/att to WRs in 2021
  • WAS WRs vs JAC in W1: McLaurin (2:58:1 (4)) // Samuel (8:55:1 (11)) // Dotson (3:40:2 (5))
  • Pittman vs 2021 JAC: 5:71 // 6:64:1
  • IND WR tg in W1: Pittman (13) // Dulin (6) // Campbell (4) // Strachan (2) // Pierce (2)

Jonathan Taylor:

  • IND has ranked 8th and 3rd in rush att the past two seasons
  • In W1, Taylor had 31 rush att vs HOU
  • Taylor had 15+ att in all but two games in 2021
  • 2021 RBs with 15+ rush att vs JAC: Ingram (85:1) // Mixon (67:1) // Henry (130:3) // Taylor (116:1 / 77) // Wilson (50) // CPatt (108:2) // Michel (121:1) // Rex (41) // Carter (118) // Stevenson (107:2)
  • W1: Gibson went for just 14:58 on the ground vs JAC, but racked up 7:72 through the air
  • IND RB receiving in W1: Taylor (4:14 (7)) // Hines (6:50 (6))

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 18th 1:00pm Eastern

Bucs (
23) at

Saints (

Over/Under 43.5


Key Matchups
Buccaneers Run D
11th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per carry
Saints Run O
13th DVOA/31st Yards per carry
Buccaneers Pass D
15th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Saints Pass O
20th DVOA/22nd Yards per pass
Saints Run D
25th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Buccaneers Run O
29th DVOA/32nd Yards per carry
Saints Pass D
11th DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per pass
Buccaneers Pass O
15th DVOA/6th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The Buccaneers list ten players on their initial injury report. In contrast, the Saints list 11 – New Orleans’ report seems littered with “load management” as 10 of the 11 players were listed as limited participants, whereas Tampa Bay could have some real issues here.
  • The story for this one starts with each team’s offensive lines, as the Buccaneers performed extremely well in Week 1 even through multiple injuries, while the Saints interior is a massive point of weakness.
  • The Buccaneers are likely to assert control in the trenches, which is the starting point for the matchups in this game.
  • The New Orleans offense looked stagnant in Week 1, which makes sense considering the multitude of moving pieces for this team during the offseason.

How tampa bay Will Try To Win ::

The Buccaneers injury report was a sight to behold on Wednesday, for all the wrong reasons. Mike Evans, Leonard Fournette, Tristan Wirfs, Breshad Perriman, and Tom Brady (not injury related) were all listed as limited participants, while all of Chris Godwin, Julio Jones, Russell Gage, Zyon McCollum, and Donovan Smith missed practice entirely. The presence of two members of an already battered offensive line and the top five wide receivers on the depth chart on the opening injury report is notable, particularly considering a matchup with a Saints defense that notoriously plays this team extremely tight. The full practice report is not yet available for Thursday (writing this Thursday morning), but initial reports indicate that Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Julio Jones were all not present during the portion of practice open to the media. The downgrade from “limited” to “DNP” could be telling for Evans, while consecutive missed practices for Julio and Godwin paint an ominous picture. As things currently stand, I would tentatively expect Evans and Julio to suit up, while Godwin should be considered a long shot to be active on game day. Tampa Bay surprisingly ended Week 1 with the eighth lowest pass rate over expectation, which is likely more of a nod to the lack of pressure from a Dallas team that mustered all of three points offensively combined with limited repetitions from quarterback Tom Brady in the offseason program. That said, I’d expect pass rate values to increase as the year progresses.

Leonard Fournette continued a commanding share of the backfield duties for the Buccaneers in Week 1, amassing a hefty (pun not intended) 76% snap rate, 76% (!!!) route participation rate, and 100% of the two-minute snaps. Those underlying metrics mean we shouldn’t read too far into the fact that Fournette saw only a 7% team target market share on a lowly 9% targets per route run value (as in, Fournette is likely to see extremely solid receiving numbers this year with that level of route participation). For comparison, Dalvin Cook, Darrel Henderson, and Christian McCaffrey were the only three running backs to surpass Fournette’s 76% route participation rate in Week 1. That’s elite company, people (also, sidenote, shout out to Henderson… my gawd). Rachaad White ran well behind Fournette, accounting for just 17 offensive snaps (27%) and eight running back opportunities, seven of which came in the second half with the game already in hand. That means that Fournette’s gawdy underlying metrics likely reflect lower than actuality. Most notably, Giovani Bernard and Ke’Shawn Vaughn didn’t sniff the field. The New Orleans defensive line and linebacker unit also aren’t what they used to be, coming off 5.39 adjusted line yards surrendered and 5.5 yards per carry to the 31-year-old Cordarrelle Patterson behind a middling Atlanta offensive line.

It’s difficult to write up this section for a Buccaneers pass offense with all five of its top wide receivers out of practice, but here we are. There’s only one scenario where I expect a shadow out of New Orleans defensive backs, and that’s if Mike Evans plays. Marshon Lattimore has held Evans in his back pocket for their entire careers. For example, Evans averages just 51.4 yards per game against the Saints and 81.7 yards per game against all other opponents. Lattimore is also typically only in shadow coverage on large-bodied, X-type wide receivers, of which Mike Evans is. Any other scenario would likely leave Lattimore to his side of the field. I tentatively expect Evans, Julio, Perriman, and Gage to go, which could serve to increase the target market share of Fournette, Julio, and Gage (with Perriman likely to be used sparingly) should Lattimore be charged with shadow coverage on Evans. Cameron Brate, Cade Otten, and Ko Kieft (?) split snaps at the tight end position, notably leaving veteran Kyle Rudolph to rot on the inactive list.

How new orleans Will Try To Win ::

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By LexMiraglia10 >>


  • Tampa Brady Bucs have gotten the best of most teams, but are 0-3 vs LAR and 1-4 vs NOR
  • Winston tore his ACL vs TB last year after a hot start to the game in his first #revengegame
  • No Sean Payton or Bruce Arians this time around

Jameis Winston:

  • Winston’s first real game action since his ACL tear last year started slow, but he finished with 269:2 thanks to a lot of production in comeback mode (including 40 yd play to Landry on final drive)
  • Winston’s pass att as NOR QB: 20 // 22 // 21 // 23 // 30 // 35 // 34
  • 2021 TB faced the most pass att/g, allowing 12/19 QBs to throw for 250+
  • DAL threw 42 pass att in W1 vs TB
  • 2021 TB had the 2nd highest rate of pressure and highest blitz rate per PFR
  • TB sacked DAL QBs 4 times in W1
  • Winston was sacked 4 times in W1 vs ATL


  • 2021 TB allowed 18 WRs of 60+ yds; 6 WRs of 100+ yds
  • 2021 TB allowed the 4th most WR rec and the 11th most WR yds on the 3rd most WR tg
  • DAL WRs vs TB in W1: Lamb (2:29) // Brown (5:68) // Houston (2:16)
  • Landry’s last 6 games: 6:111 // 5:41:1 // 4:55 // 4:43 // 6:75:1 // 7:114
  • Thomas’s average targets/g by season: 8.1 // 9.3 // 9.2 // 11.6 // 7.9
  • Thomas received 8 tg in W1 vs ATL
  • Saints top WR vs Bowles TB Def: Thomas (11:182:2) // Thomas (10:114:1) // Sanders (3:15:1) // Thomas (5:51) // Tre’Quan (3:31:1) // Callaway (6:112)

Alvin Kamara:

  • TB allowed the fewest RB rush yds in each of the last three seasons under Bowles
  • In 16 games in 2019, Gurley & AK were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and they combined for 17 rec in those 2 games
  • In 20 games in 2020, Kamara, CMC, & Cook were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and AK & CMC both needed 2 TDs to get there
  • In 19 games in 2021, Patterson, Gaskin, Herbert, & Gibson were the only RBs to break 20 DK pts vs TB, and the first 3 combined for 20 rec while Gibson scored 2 TDs
  • In Week 1 of 2022, TB held DAL RBs to combined yds of 49 (Elliott) & 22 (Pollard)
  • TB allowed the 2nd most RB rec in 2021 after allowing the most in 2020 (5th most RB rec yds allowed 2021)
  • Kamara vs this Bowles TB defense::
  • Rushing: 16:62 // 13:75 // 12:16:1 // 9:40:1 // 18:85 // 19:61:1 // 11:18
  • Receiving: 6:42 // 10:47 // 5:51:1 // 5:9 // 3:20 // 3:15 // 2:13
  • AK is the only RB to score 20+ DK pts twice vs Bowles TB def, but he still scored just 22.2 & 23.7 DK pts in those games
  • In 2021, AK’s total touches without Ingram: 24 // 14 // 28 // 26 // 24 // 31 // 32 // 19 // 32
  • In 2021, AK’s total touches with Ingram: 23 // 20 // 17 // 17
  • AK had 9 rush att & 4 tg in Week 1 vs ATL

Tom Brady:

  • Tampa Brady vs NOR: 239:2:2, rush TD // 209:0:3 // 199:2, rush TD // 375:4:2 // 214:0:1
  • That’s 8 INT in 5 games, including multiple dropped INTs in the only game INT-free
  • Brady has all 10 total TDs in the 3 games in NOR Superdome (0 in the 2 games in TB)
  • Brady sacks in those games: 3 // 3 // 1 // 3 // 4
  • Mariota racked up 287 total yds in the first game vs this new-look NOR defense
  • Brady went for 212:1:1 in W1 vs DAL, working with new some weapons


  • Evans career vs Lattimore Saints: 1:13 (6 tg) // 5:55 (13) // 7:147:1 (7) // 4:86 (6) // 0:0 (3) // 1:2:1 (4) // 4:64 (6) // 1:3:1 (3) // 2:48:1 (4) // 1:14 (1)
  • That’s DK pts of: 2.3 // 10.5 // 30.7 // 12.6 // 0 // 7.2 // 10.4 // 7.3 // 12.8 // 2.4
  • Julio has played the Saints 13 times since 2014, recording 90+ yds in 10 of them (including a stretch of 9/10)
  • NOR allowed 5:74 to Drake London and 2:19 to Kyle Pitts in W1
  • NOR CB2 Paulson Adebo is Q after missing W1
  • TB tg in W1: Evans (7) // Julio (5) // Godwin (3) // Gage (2)

Leonard Fournette:

  • Fournette’s 2021 season::
  • 15+ touches in 13/15 g // 6 g of 60+ rush yds (5 of 80+)
  • 3+ rec in 14/15 g // 5+ rec in 8/15 g // 40+ rec yds in 7 g
  • Fournette in W1: 21:127, 2:10
  • Patterson last week joined Miles Sanders (in late 2020) as the only two RBs to rush for 100+ yds vs NOR since middle of 2017
  • Following a trend of NOR being extremely tough vs RBs since 2018 ::
  • NOR ranked 1st in def rush DVOA in 2021
  • Only RBs with 50+ rush yds vs 2021 NOR: CMC (24:72:1) // Saquon (13:52:1) // Gibson (20:60:2) // Sanders (16:94) // Pollard (7:71:1) // RoJo (8:63) // Hubbard (17:55:1)
  • RBs to score 20+ DK pts vs NOR since 2018: Saquon (22, 29.6) // Latavius (20.5) // Zeke (25.6) // CMC (34.3, 22.8, 26, 24.7) // Mostert (24.9) // Dalvin (28.0) // Sanders (32.6) // Fournette (21.7) // Gibson (21.2) // Patterson (22.6, 25.6)
  • That’s 15 RB scores of 20+ DK pts allowed in the last 71 games, and just 7 of 25+
  • 14/15 scored a TD /// 6/15 scored 2 TDs /// 10/15 had 5+ rec /// 13/15 had 6+ DK rec pts
  • Fournette vs NOR in this stretch: 72, 46 (JAC) // 5, 14 // 0, 41 // 63, 44:1 // 26, 17 // 34, 33

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 18th 1:00pm Eastern

Panthers (
22.25) at

Giants (

Over/Under 43.5


Key Matchups
Panthers Run D
32nd DVOA/13th Yards allowed per carry
Giants Run O
31st DVOA/15th Yards per carry
Panthers Pass D
20th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Giants Pass O
30th DVOA/30th Yards per pass
Giants Run D
29th DVOA/30th Yards allowed per carry
Panthers Run O
25th DVOA/23rd Yards per carry
Giants Pass D
19th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per pass
Panthers Pass O
32nd DVOA/32nd Yards per pass


BY Hilow >>
  • New Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale blitzed at a 48.6% clip in Week 1 after coming over from the same position in Baltimore, where they finished no lower than sixth in overall blitz rate (last year, first in each of the preceding three seasons) over the previous four seasons.
  • Baker Mayfield has a career 35.8 PFF rating when under pressure (41.8% completion percentage – lolz) and 57.3 PFF rating when blitzed (compared to an elite 74.0 PFF rating with a clean pocket.)
  • The Giants pass catchers are a veritable mess outside of Saquon Barkley – nobody can be fully trusted until we get more clarity.
  • Carolina would do well to get Christian McCaffrey more than five first half touches this week.
  • DJ Moore is a stud versus man coverages, something he should see plenty of against a Wink Martindale defense.


Matt Rhule’s Panthers looked lost offensively to begin the season, adapting a hyper conservative game plan and not opening things up until deep into the fourth quarter in Week 1. It’s honestly a shame they almost came back to win late because it could lead to a somewhat validated feeling amongst the coaching staff, which is truly too bad considering the pieces of the offense. Christian McCaffrey maintains his position as one of the true workhorse running backs in the NFL, yet he was afforded only five first half touches in Week 1. For all intents and purposes, this team still has a lot to figure out as far as identity goes. One interesting aspect is the disconnect between feigned aggression and play calling as the Panthers ranked towards the top of the league in pace of play in Week 1, but were both timid on early downs and one-dimensional through the air until late in the fourth quarter. From a pure game planning perspective, we should expect the Panthers to get out ahead of the likely high blitz rates from the Giants, meaning short-to-intermediate passing to D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey.

The Panthers backfield is Christian McCaffrey’s. He played a massive 83% snap rate in Week 1 on his way to a 23% team target market share and 77% route participation rate; however, his low 17% targets per route run and 61% team rush share were well below his career norm. There’s two ways to look at this: (1) the floor is in for McCaffrey for the remainder of the year as the latter two values increase to meet his career norms, or (2) Rhule is making a concerted effort to lighten his load while not lessening his snap rate. The former makes a whole heck of a lot more sense to me considering the elite snap rate and route participation rate we saw in Week 1, while the latter seems like pure idiocy, in my humble opinion. As in, why in the world would Rhule not manage his workload by lessening his snap rate to get the same elite per-touch production instead of calling plays around his elite back while he’s on the field? All of that is a fancy way of saying, “CMC is going to be just fine, and I think we just saw a floor performance.” The matchup is middling against a non-formidable Giants defensive line, with the primary detractor being the shortcomings of Carolina’s offensive line. The only worry here is the lack of dynamic and schemed usage for CMC to start the year after two lost seasons, something I am not currently overly concerned about.

The Panthers were held to a paltry 53 offensive plays run from scrimmage against a Browns team that controlled the game throughout. The interesting part about the setup of this one is that the Giants are now strangely well-equipped to do just that – control the game through their defense and ground game. That said, and true to Rhuleian form, the top two wide receivers played every single offensive snap in Week 1. DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson accounted for 14-of-27 Baker Mayfield pass attempts, good for a combined 51.6% team target market share. My takeaway here is that DJM, CMC, and Anderson are going to be the driving forces in this offense on a weekly basis, which could present some buying opportunities before we see them put everything together. The high blitz rates of Wink Martindale’s defense on the other side should force heavier rates of man coverage and ball-out-quick from Mayfield, meaning D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey should see heavier target shares than the more downfield Robbie Anderson. And guess who holds a top-10 career success rate against man coverage? Yeah, D.J. Moore does (greater than 30% target share against man coverages each of the last three seasons.) His 2.40 yards of average separation versus man coverage is absolutely elite.

How New york Will Try To Win ::

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By LexMiraglia10 >>

Daniel Jones:

  • Jones 12 games with Pat Shurmur: 24 TDs to 12 INT
  • Jones 24 games with Jason Garrett: 21 TDs to 17 INT
  • Jones 1 game with Brian Daboll: 2 TDs to 1 INT
  • Daniel Jones was pressured more than any QB in W1 vs TEN, taking 5 sacks
  • CAR pressured Jacoby Brissett just once in W1
  • 2021 CAR allowed the 4th fewest QB DK pts/g, with the only QBs to score 25+ DK pts being Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, & Tom Brady
  • Jones vs 2021 CAR: 23/33 for 203:1, 28


  • After dealing with injuries during preseason, Kadarius Toney played behind Shepard, Golladay, James, & Robinson in W1 (just 7 offensive snaps, 2 rush att)
  • Tg in W1: James (6) // Shepard (4) // Golladay (2) // Robinson (1)
  • 2021 CAR allowed the 6th fewest WR DK pts/g
  • CLE WRs vs CAR in W1: DPJ (6:60) // Cooper (3:17) // Schwartz (1:19)
  • NYG WRs in 2021 vs CAR: Slayton (63) // Pettis (39:1) // Ross (27)

Saquon Barkley:

  • After finally getting going post-ACL tear with scores of 21.4 & 29.6 DK pts in Wks 3-4 of 2021, Barkley sprained his ankle and upon returning never reached 20 DK pts again all season
  • In his first game of 2022, Barkley scored 34.4 DK pts against TEN
  • Along with his 18 rush att, Barkley led NYG in tg (7) in W1
  • 2021 CAR allowed the 4th fewest RB DK pts/g
  • CLE RBs in W1 vs CAR (yds:TDs): Chubb (141, 2) // Hunt (46:1, 24:1)
  • NYG RBs vs CAR in 2021: Booker (51:1, 15) // Penny (24)

Baker Mayfield:

  • NYG allowed 266:2 to Tannehill in W1
  • In 2021, Mayfield averaged 14.5 DK pts/g, only scoring 20+ once
  • Mayfield went for 235:1:1 in opener vs CLE, including a 75 yd TD on blown coverage
  • Mayfield only threw 27 passes despite trailing for majority of the game (CAR struggled to maintain drives, with just 27 pass att & 19 rush att)


  • 20 WRs had 60+ yds vs NYG in 2021
  • 2021 NYG allowed 18 WR TDs
  • TEN WRs in W1 vs NYG: Phillips (66) // Burks (55) // Woods (13) // Westbrook (13)
  • CAR WRs in 2021 vs NYG: Moore (6:73) // Anderson (3:14)
  • CAR WRs in W1 vs CLE: Anderson (102:1; 8tg) // Moore (43; 6tg)

Christian McCaffrey:

  • CMC touches in full games in 2021: 30 // 30 // 19 // 23 // 18
  • CMC in W1: 10 att, 4 tg
  • NYG ranked dead last in def rush DVOA in 2021
  • In W1, NYG held Henry to 82 yds on 21 att
  • However, NYG did allow 3:61:2 to Dontrell Hilliard through the air
  • 7 RBs had 30+ rec yds vs NYG in 2021 (4 of 60+)

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 18th 1:00pm Eastern

Patriots (
21.5) at

Steelers (

Over/Under 40.0


Key Matchups
Patriots Run D
1st DVOA/1st Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
12th DVOA/17th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
13th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per pass
Steelers Run D
13th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
23rd DVOA/24th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
7th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
29th DVOA/28th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324>>
  • The strongest play from this game is likely to be a Defense
  • The Patriots are likely to outperform public expectations
  • Diontae Johnson and Najee Harris are mispriced for their roles/talent
  • Pat Freiermuth saw 10 targets in Week 1

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

A leprechaun named Lucky isn’t as fortunate as Mike Tomlin. The Steelers forced five turnovers in Week 1, sacking Joe Burrow seven times, while not turning the ball over on offense, and (surprisingly) only allowing one sack for a two-yard loss. Despite those discrepancies, The Steelers needed a mistake filled overtime to win, and that overtime was forced by a Minkah Fitzpatrick blocked extra point kick as time expired. Had the Bengals executed that extra point, the Steelers would have become the first team to lose a game with a plus five turnover margin and seven sacks in the last fifty years.

How did the Steelers nearly lose a game they dominated thoroughly on defense? Their offense was pathetic. Tomlin has engaged in “troll yourself” mode by starting Mitch Trubisky over the clearly superior Kenny Pickett. Tomlin is trolling himself because if the Steelers win (despite Trubisky playing horribly), he can’t make a change at QB, because winning, duh. If the Steelers drop out of contention, then go to Pickett, the year goes to waste. This creates a lose/lose scenario. Even though the world has had four years to see what Trubisky is (a backup-level QB), Tomlin clearly needs a fifth. With Tomlin’s luck, Trubisky will get hurt and he’ll be forced to make the correct play, saving himself, but until then, this offense will be weighed down by a below-average quarterback.

Tomlin is more of a button masher than a strategic thinker. Remember when it looked like he had figured out that going for two consistently was a plus EV play? Well, turned out he was just going for two randomly (usually if the Steelers scored first) to “set the tone.” The Steelers played fast last week (2nd in total pace) but they showed large discrepancies between the first half (26th in pace) and the second half (2nd in pace). In Week 1, there was nearly a two-second gap in pace between the Steelers and the third fastest team in the second half. This game was never more than two scores apart and the Steelers were leading throughout, so why then did they play at warp speed in the second half with a lead, after playing slow in the first half? Ask Tomlin.

The Steelers offense is just as likely to play fast as it is slow, but one thing that should remain consistent is a “beat the man across from you” scheme, operated by a below-average QB. With the Patriots run defense (15th DVOA) and pass defense (19th DVOA) performing similarly last week, expect the Steelers to stick with their pass-leaning and balanced approach on offense, where their success will be hampered by inefficient QB play. Expect Matt Canada to try and set up one on one outside shots (these appear to be more of a staple of his offense without noodle-armed Big Ben), while mixing in the running game to try and bring up the safeties. Bill Belichick is adaptable on both sides of the ball, but he has recently preferred to lean on man coverage. Since I doubt Belichick respects Trubisky, there should be plenty of single high coverages for the Steelers attack on the outside. The success or failure of their offense will hinge on how many of those shots hit since they are likely to struggle to sustain drives.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

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  • After decreasing by 2 pts since opening (fourth largest drop), this game is now tied for the lowest game total with NYJ @ CLE
  • PIT’s implied total of 19.5 is the 7th lowest
  • Despite playing in a game that was decided with 0 seconds left in overtime, PIT still finished 20th in total offensive plays, per
  • Their Week 1 opponent, CIN, ran 94 offensive plays
  • PIT finished 5th in fewest seconds per play, per
  • NE ran the 29th fewest offensive plays at the 22nd fastest pace

Mac Jones

  • Dealing with a back injury but expected to play in Week 2
  • In 19 career games, Jones ($5,200 Week 2 DK salary) averages 17.7 expected DK pts
  • Scored just 10.52 pts in Week 1 loss @ MIA
  • Hit 20+ DK pts just three times: 22.28 // 24.5 // 25.18
  • Despite generating 5 turnovers on Joe Burrow, PIT still allowed 26.2 DK pts (4th most in Week 1)
  • Last season they ranked 12th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Star defensive lineman TJ Watt will not play in Week 2
  • Notable opposing QB scores last season: Aaron Rodgers 24.12 // Derek Carr 27.18 // Justin Herbert 38.28 // Patrick Mahomes 41.06

NE Passing Attack

  • PFF’s sixth ranked offensive line in Week 2
  • Week 1 snap share: DeVante Parker 100% // Jakobi Meyers 87.7% // Hunter Henry 77.2% // Jonnu Smith 68.4% // Nelson Agholor 57.9%
  • Target share: Meyers 20% // Agholor 16.7% // Smith 13.3% // Ty Montgomery 13.3% // Henry 10% // Parker 6.7%
  • In Week 1, Meyers ($4,400) finished 12th in ADoT & 24th in air yard market share among all WRs (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 salary twice since the 2021 season
  • Agholor has scored 4x his Week 2 salary ($3,600) twice since the 2021 season
  • Parker ($4,500) has not scored 4x his Week 2 salary since the 2020 season
  • PIT ranked 13th in DK ppg allowed to WRs last season (28th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Henry Ruggs 25.5 // Byron Pringle 25.5 // Tee Higgins 26.4 // Courtland Sutton 28 // Ja’Marr Chase 31.9
  • Smith ($3,200) finished 11th in ADoT in Week 1 among all TEs
  • He’s yet to score 12 DK pts as a Patriot
  • Henry ($3,600) put up three GPP worthy DK scores last season
  • PIT ranked 9th in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (19th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Mark Andrews 16.5 // Travis Kelce 28.88

NE Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Damien Harris 38.6% // Rhamondre Stevenson 24.6%
  • Target share: Harris 10% // Stevenson 6.7%
  • Attempts: Harris 9 // Stevenson 8
  • Harris ($5,500) had the lone red zone touch among the RBs
  • Per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer, Harris ranked 17th in Rushing Yards Over Expectation per Carry among all RBs in Week 1 & third in Broken Tackle %
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary twice with Mac Jones under center
  • Stevenson ($5,200) finished 13th in Broken Tackle %
  • He’s also scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary twice with Mac Jones
  • PIT ranked 26th in DK ppg allowed to RBs last season (21st in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Jerick McKinnon 26.2 // Joe Mixon 35.3 // Dalvin Cook 38.2 // Austin Ekeler 41.5

Mitch Trubisky

  • Priced at just $5,000 on DK
  • Hasn’t scored 25+ DK pts since 2019
  • Finished 8th in air yards in Week 1 & 14th in ADoT (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stats Explorer)
  • NE ranked 2nd in DK ppg allowed to QBs last year
  • They held MIA’s Tua Tagovailoa to just 14.8 DK pts in Week 1
  • NE allowed 20+ DK pts just four times last year: Davis Mills 27.68 // Dak Prescott 31.8 // Josh Allen 33.96 // Allen 41.92

PIT Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 30th ranked offensive line in Week 2
  • Week 1 snap share: Chase Claypool 92.1% // Pat Freiermuth 88.9% // Diontae Johnson 81% // George Pickens 71.4%
  • Target share: Johnson 31.6% // Freiermuth 26.3% // Claypool 15.8% // Pickens 7.9%
  • In Week 1, Johnson ($5,800) finished 9th in target share among all WRs
  • Per 4for4, he was 16th in air yard share & 11th in WOPR
  • His Week 2 salary is nearly $2,000 lower than his peak last season
  • Johnson scored 4x his Week 2 salary three times last season
  • Claypool ($4,700) had six rushing attempts in Week 1, second only to Deebo Samuel’s 8
  • His Week 2 salary is nearly $2,000 lower than his peak last season
  • Claypool has scored 4x his Week 2 salary once last season
  • Pickens ($3,600) only had three targets in Week 1
  • NE ranked fourth in DK ppg allowed to WRs last season (24th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Stefon Diggs 21.5 // Isaiah McKenzie 32.4 // CeeDee Lamb 39.1
  • Freiermuth ($4,400) finished 1st in Week 1 target share among all TEs, 5th in air yard share, 9th in ADoT, & 1st in WOPR
  • He scored 4x his Week 2 salary once last season
  • NE ranked first in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (5th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Dawson Knox 25.9

PIT Rushing Attack

  • Najee Harris ($6,200) lasted 37 snaps before exiting Week 1 with an injury
  • Jaylen Warren ($5,400) received all of the RB work in his place: 3 att for 7 yds and a single target
  • As of Wednesday evening, Harris claims to be fine and on track to play in Week 2
  • He led all RBs in usage last season
  • His Week 2 DK salary is over $2,000 below his peak last season
  • He scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary four times in 19 career games
  • NE ranked 18th in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (11th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Austin Ekeler 24.4 // Devin Singletary 24.4 // Jonathan Taylor 26

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 18th 4:05pm Eastern

Falcons (
18) at

Rams (

Over/Under 46.0


Key Matchups
Falcons Run D
8th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per carry
Rams Run O
7th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Falcons Pass D
29th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per pass
Rams Pass O
10th DVOA/3rd Yards per pass
Rams Run D
20th DVOA/16th Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O
20th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Rams Pass D
22nd DVOA/27th Yards allowed per pass
Falcons Pass O
22nd DVOA/8th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • Atlanta is due for a letdown, while the Rams are itching for a bounce-back game.
  • The Falcons will have to make a decision defensively on if they change the approach that they’ve had success with or leave themselves vulnerable to the strengths of the Rams.
  • Matthew Stafford and the passing game are in a terrific spot.
  • The game flow is likely to keep Atlanta from relying on the run as heavily as they did in Week 1.

How atlanta Will Try To Win ::

The Falcons nearly pulled off a win against the Saints in Week 1, losing by just one point to a Saints field goal with 0:19 remaining in the game. In that game, the Falcons were able to control most of the game thanks to a strong defensive effort and a good rushing attack, with Cordarrelle Patterson and quarterback Marcus Mariota combining for nearly 200 rushing yards. One of the key plays in the game that likely altered the outcome was a fumble by Mariota inside the Saints 10-yard line late in the 3rd quarter. Had Mariota held on to the ball, the Falcons would have had first and goal and a chance to take a 30-10 lead, effectively putting the game out of reach. In that context, we can see how impressive the Falcons performance really was, as scoring 30 points in three quarters against a good defense would have been quite the feat.

Entering Week 2, the Falcons will have a different challenge on their hands. The Rams are coming off a 10-day break following their loss at the hands of the Bills on opening night last Thursday. The Saints were very conservative in their game plan, and Jameis Winston struggled with the blitzes the Falcons were sending at him, resulting in a stagnant offense that allowed Atlanta to control the game. The Falcons ran the ball 38 times in Week 1, compared to only 33 pass attempts. Atlanta will likely try to take the same approach this week that they had success with in Week 1, although that approach is much less likely to hold water traveling cross country against the defending Super Bowl champions.

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

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(No CC Required)

By LexMiraglia10 >>

Matthew Stafford:

  • 10/17 QBs topped 225 pass yds vs ATL in 2021, but just 5 surpassed 275 and only 1 reached 300 yds
  • In W1, Winston threw for 269 yds vs ATL, while Stafford threw for 240 yds vs BUF
  • 2021 ATL allowed 31 pass TDs to 12 INT
  • 2021 ATL allowed 2+ TDs to 9/17 QBs
  • In W1, Winston scored 2 TDs vs ATL, while Stafford scored 1 TD to 3 INT vs BUF
  • BUF sacked Stafford 7 times; ATL sacked Winston 4 times
  • Stafford’s last matchups against a Dean Pees defense came against the 2017 & 2013 Ravens: 2017 (292:1:1) // 2013 (235:1:3)
  • LAR have the highest implied total on the slate (29) and are the biggest favorites (10.5)


  • 2021 ATL allowed the 5th most WR rec & the 6th most WR DK pts/g
  • NOR WRs in W1: Thomas (5:57:2) // Landry (7:114) // Olave (3:41)
  • Kupp averaged 11.1 targets/g in 21 games in 2021
  • Kupp stayed a target hog in W1, going for 13:128:1 on 15 tg
  • Kupp had just one game under 90 yds in all of 2021
  • In 2020, Robinson had TWELVE games of more yds than his best game of 2021
  • Robinson had just 3 games of over 35 yds in all of 2021, and his BEST game was just 4 rec for 68 yds
  • In W1, Robinson went just 1:12 on 2 tg
  • Skowronek received 6 tg

Tyler Higbee:

  • TEs with 40+ yds vs ATL in 2021: Goedert (42:1) // Gronk (40:2; 58:2) // Gesicki (85:1) // Trautman (47) // Kittle (93)
  • Higbee had 10/18 games of 40+ yds in 2021, including 6 straight to end his season before injury
  • In W1, Higbee went for just 39 yds, but did see 11 tg
  • NOR TEs vs ATL: Johnson (2:45 (5)) // Taysom (1:2 (1))


  • 2021 ATL ranked 30th in def rush DVOA
  • 2021 ATL allowed a RB TD in 12/17 games
  • NOR RBs didn’t score in W1, but Taysom Hill did run in a TD
  • An LAR RB scored a TD in 10/17 games in 2021 (0 in all 4 playoff games)
  • 14 RBs had 75+ yds vs 2021 ATL
  • NOR RBs in W1: Kamara (46) // Ingram (23)
  • An LAR RB had 70+ yds in 13/17 reg season games (1/4 playoff games)
  • Touches:total yds in W1: Henderson (18:73) // Akers (3:0)

Marcus Mariota:

  • Mariota’s only two live games since 2019::
  • Passing: (226:1:1 // 215:0); Rushing (88:1 // 72:1)
  • Notable QB rushing vs LAR in 2021: Wentz (37) // Kyler (39; 61) // Huntley (54)
  • Josh Allen rushed for 56:1 in W1 vs LAR
  • The Rams ranked 6th in defensive pass DVOA in 2021, allowing the 8th fewest QB DK pts/g

Drake London:

  • The 2021 Rams allowed the 5th most overall WR DK pts/g (38.4) behind the 3rd most rec & 4th most yds
  • 20 WRs had 70+ vs the Rams in 21 games
  • The Rams did only allow the 2nd most WR TDs (10) during the regular season
  • 3 BUF WRs scored in W1 and Diggs (122) & Davis (88) cleared 70 yds
  • London finished with 5:74 in his first career game against NOR
  • London tied Pitts for team lead in tg (7) in W1

Kyle Pitts:

  • Pitts only put up 2:19 on his 7 tg in W1
  • Pitts has been contained by NOR all 3 times, but he’s playing with a QB who historically favors his athletic TE
  • Delanie Walker had 800+ yds in all 3 of his seasons with Mariota in TEN
  • Darren Waller went for 9:150:1 on 12 tg in the 2020 Mariota LV game
  • TEs with 40+ yds vs LAR in 2021: Kmet (42) // Doyle (64) // Gronk (55, 85) // Williams (66:1) // Hock (48) // Akins (53), Jordan (41:1) // Kittle (50:1) // Ertz (42) // Everett (60) // Conklin (44) // Andrews (89) 
  • Knox went just 1:5 on 2 tg in W1

Cordarelle Patterson:

  • Only three teams allowed fewer RB DK pts than LAR in 2020 (6th fewest RB rush yds)
  • Only six teams allowed fewer RB DK pts than LAR in 2021 (9th fewest RB rush yds)
  • BUF RBs in W1 vs LAR: Singletary (48, 14) // Moss (15, 21) // Cook (2)
  • Patterson rounded out ATL’s big 3 in terms of volume (22 att, 5 tg)
  • He finished with 120 rush & 16 rec yds in what is usually one of the toughest RB matchups in football against NOR

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 18th 4:05pm Eastern

Hawks (
15.5) at

49ers (

Over/Under 39.5


Key Matchups
Seahawks Run D
23rd DVOA/25th Yards allowed per carry
49ers Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Seahawks Pass D
25th DVOA/15th Yards allowed per pass
49ers Pass O
1st DVOA/1st Yards per pass
49ers Run D
15th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per carry
Seahawks Run O
19th DVOA/20th Yards per carry
49ers Pass D
4th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Seahawks Pass O
8th DVOA/12th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>
  • Two teams on opposite ends of the emotional spectrum.
  • A loss here and Trey Lance could legitimately be benched.
  • Both teams are likely to have a run-heavy approach and struggle to turn drives into touchdowns.
  • Neither team plays with much tempo or pace, which should lead to low play volume.

How Seattle Will Try To Win ::

The Seahawks rode emotions, a raucous home crowd, a solid defensive performance, and Broncos mistakes to a shocking Week 1 victory on Monday Night Football. Now playing on a short week against a division rival, they will have to move on quickly if they want to compete as they enter this game as double-digit underdogs. 

Seattle had a solid showing on Monday night but didn’t do anything extraordinary. The Broncos outgained the Seahawks by nearly 200 yards, as Seattle only mustered 253 total yards of offense. The 49ers defense is no joke and will certainly form a tough obstacle for Geno Smith and the Seahawks. Contrary to popular opinion, the Seahawks actually played at a top-10 pace in 2021. However, in Week 1 they were dead last in seconds per snap, while only having 49 total offensive snaps (the league average is in the low 60s). Putting that together, we have a conservative offense that wants to play at a slow pace, doesn’t accumulate much volume, and isn’t very efficient. While we can all see this reality, in Pete Carroll’s mind they are undefeated, and “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”

How San Francisco Will Try to win ::

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(No CC Required)
JM >>
  • I really like the Lance/Jennings angle that Mike highlighted above — but same as Mike, this would be reserved for large-field play
  • On tighter builds, I don’t want to mess with a single player from Seattle; I don’t want to trust Deebo at his price tag; and I don’t want to hope Jeff Wilson’s role is “big enough” when there are better options available; any of these options can be played around with in large-field play, but these are non-starters for me in tighter builds
  • On tighter builds, the two players I have “fringe interest” in are Trey Lance and Brandon Aiyuk, who cost $5.7k and $5.1k on DraftKings, respectively (and cost $10.8k combined)
    • I’m firmly in the “Lance non-believer” camp (I drafted him on under 2% of my Underdog rosters — at a position where I’m typically very happy to take swings on unestablished running QBs outside the top rounds; he just looked SO bad to me as a passer last year, and the training camp reports highlighted his inaccuracy consistently enough, that I didn’t feel the reward outweighed the risk at his draft capital; to be clear, this is still very much something I could be proven wrong on), but as long as his price remains low in DFS, he’ll continue to carry 5x upside
    • Aiyuk was A) the 49ers’ training camp standout and B) Lance’s favorite weapon all summer, and he is now effectively the WR1, as Deebo will be used more as an “offensive weapon” than as a true wideout; that said…if Jimmy Garoppolo threw 28 or fewer passes in eight of his 15 games last year (with four games in which he threw 23 or fewer passes!), what do we think the chances are that Lance is called on to pass a ton in a game the 49ers control? With that in mind, it’s hard to see Aiyuk’s targets truly spiking, which means it’s hard for me to see myself actually pulling the trigger on this play; the upside is there, even on lower volume, so he’s definitely tourney-worthy; but if I have only a few builds this weekend, I don’t think I’ll actually end up going here

By Dwprix >>


  • Total is 3rd lowest on main slate (42.5)
  • SF’s game last week was the lowest total on the week (41.5) & fell lower with the weather 
  • Total (29) went under 
  • This week’s spread is currently the second highest (-10)
  • Last week SF had the second highest spread for awhile // They lost to CHI by 9
  • SF had more rushing yds (164) & passing yds (176) than CHI & still lost (SF had 1 more TO)
  • Last season SEA won both matchups: SEA-28 @ SF-21 // SF-23 SEA-30
  • SEA scored the least amount of points of any winning team last week (17)
  • SF D allowed the least yards in the league last week (204)
  • SEA gained the 4th fewest (253)

Geno Smith:

  • Smith is now 14-21 as starter
  • Last week: Pass 23:28:195:2 TDs // Rush 6:14
  • On 28 attempts, Smith targeted 8 receivers
  • Smith’s last 300 yd pass game was in 2014
  • He has three 300 yd pass games in his career
  • Against SF last week, Fields went 8:17:121:2 TDs:1 INT


  • DK Metcalf led team with 7 tgts last week (25% share)
  • Tyler Locket had 4 (15%)
  • No other SEA WR had more than 2
  • Snaps (of 55): Metcalf-45 // Lockett-44 // Marquise Goodwin-28 // D’Wayne Eskridge-5
  • In a rainy game last week, SF only allowed four catches to WRs but 2 were for TDs


  • SEA TEs were targeted 9 times: Parkinson-2 // Dissly-3 // Fant-4
  • Parkinson (2:43) & Dissly (3:43) both scored 
  • 49ers didn’t allow any catches to TEs last week

Rashaad Penny:

  • Penny had 12 carries and took all but one of the RB carries last week
  • Rush: 12:60 // Rec: 2:7-3 tgts
  • He played 38 of 55 snaps (69%)
  • Travis Homer played 19 of 55 (35%)
  • Penny’s final five games of last season: WK 14-16:137:2 TDs // WK 15-11:39:0 TDs // WK 16-17:135:1 TD // WK 17-25:170:2 TDs // WK 18-23:190:1 TD
  • SF held CHI (Montgomery, Fields, Herbert) to 2.7 yds/carry last week

Trey Lance:

  • Lance had the most SF rush attempts & rush yards last week (13:54)
  • He only had 13 completions
  • SEA last week vs Russell Wilson: 29:42:340:1 TD
  • Lance’s price went down $300 on DK ($5.7k), stayed the same on FD ($7.5k)

49ers WRs:

  • Rushing: 8:52:1 TD // Rec: 2:14-8 tgts (led team)
  • In his last 20 games played // 17 TDs (7 rec // 10 rush)
  • He hasn’t had over 8 tgts in his last 6 games
  • Snaps (of 68): Brandon Aiyuk-67 // Jauan Jennings-41 // Ray-Ray McCloud-18
  • Jennings led the team with 4 receptions (62 yds)


  • Eli Mitchell left in first half (17 snaps) 
  • Wilson rushed for 22 yds on 9 carries (40 snaps)
  • No other RB took a snap
  • FB Kyle Juszcyk played 25 snaps
  • Wilson has 3 games in his career over 20 rush attempts (38 games)
  • 49ers other RBs are both rookies
  • Jordan Mason-Undrafted // Tyrion Davis-Price-3rd round 


  • As of Tuesday, George Kittle’s status is unknown
  • In his absence, 3 TEs saw the field
  • Snaps: Tyler Kroft-37 // Charlie Woerner-19 // Ross Dwelley-19
  • Kroft & Dwelley saw two tgts each

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 18th 4:25pm Eastern

Bengals (
24.5) at

Cowboys (

Over/Under 42.0


Key Matchups
Bengals Run D
28th DVOA/31st Yards allowed per carry
Cowboys Run O
15th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Bengals Pass D
21st DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per pass
Cowboys Pass O
11th DVOA/14th Yards per pass
Cowboys Run D
9th DVOA/17th Yards allowed per carry
Bengals Run O
22nd DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Cowboys Pass D
6th DVOA/25th Yards allowed per pass
Bengals Pass O
14th DVOA/26th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson>>
  • Both teams are coming off embarrassing showings in the opening week.
  • Dak Prescott’s injury has significantly changed the outlook for this game, as well as the likely approach for each team.
  • The status of Tee Higgins will have a large impact on how aggressive the Bengals want to be in this spot as big favorites against an injury-riddled opponent.
  • A game of chicken is likely with the Bengals trying not to beat themselves and the Cowboys just hoping to stay close enough to let them.

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

Fresh off a Super Bowl appearance with a young team, the Bengals promptly dropped a game against a Mitch Trubisky-led team to open their 2022 season. The loss was marred by turnovers, sacks, and self-imposed mistakes. While a lot of credit needs to go to the Steelers defense, the Bengals created a lot of their own issues. At the top of the list of issues for the Bengals was pass protection, as the Steelers pass rush had seven sacks and forced Joe Burrow into four interceptions and one lost fumble. The Bengals also had offensive line issues last year, but they put a lot of resources into fortifying the line this offseason so the opening week had to be discouraging. The reality is that good offensive line play comes from communication and chemistry, which is hard to have so early in the year with a lot of new pieces. This issue should improve as the season goes along, but in Week 2 they will likely have their hands full again with Micah Parsons creating havoc on the edge.

For most of last season, the Bengals had a conservative and balanced approach to begin games and would adjust that approach based on how the game was going. When they built early leads, they would run the ball more; and when they fell behind, they would open things up. Later in the season, against better competition and in high leverage games, the Bengals did start opening things up and throwing more aggressively. At this point, we don’t know yet if the Bengals will continue the trend we saw them ride to the Super Bowl, or if they will go back to their balanced approach that they had for most of the regular season. Last week, after throwing a pick-six on their first possession and having turnovers on three of their next four possessions, the Bengals dropped back to pass 60 times on 94 offensive plays. Due to the context of Week 1, it is still too early to tell what the Bengals will do. What we do know is that when they do throw, they are likely to be aggressive as Joe Burrow led the league with 17 passes 10+ yards downfield last week and 66.6% of his completions went for first downs.

After a mistake prone Week 1, and facing a team who will be without their franchise quarterback, the Bengals are likely to play this game relatively close to the vest to avoid a similar fate. The status of Tee Higgins, who left Sunday’s game with a concussion, will also play a role in how the Bengals approach this game. He is a key offensive piece in the intermediate passing game and his absence may lead the Bengals to lean more on the run and short passing game rather than forcing the ball downfield against what was a very opportunistic Dallas secondary last season. I would expect the Bengals to look to establish the run in this game and take some calculated deep shots, along with schemed looks to get the ball in the hands of Ja’Marr Chase in space.

How dallas Will Try To Win ::

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(No CC Required)
JM >>
  • I agree with everything above and don’t have a whole lot to add without simply being redundant
  • Re: Bengals defense — one way to look at this is to ask how many sacks and turnover the Bengals will really be able to force if the Cowboys try to play things close to the vest for several quarters; the Bengals will obviously project as “the top defense on the slate,” but the gap between the Bengals and other defenses is not nearly as significant as ownership will indicate, making it plenty sharp to steer clear in tourneys
  • Re: “Interesting plays if Higgins misses” — I agree 100% (Chase // Hurst); I also agree that it’s tough to see Chase or Hurst truly popping in the expected game environment if everyone is healthy
  • Mixon is very much in the mix
  • I also really like the Noah Brown call; because of the variance associated with defense and the ownership the Bengals’ defense is certain to see, one of the more valuable strategy angles on this slate would be finding SOME way to gain leverage over those who load up on the Bengals; Brown is a cheap way to do this, with very clear paths to this play working out

By Alex88 >>


  • The total in this game has dropped 7 pts since Dak Prescott’s injury (by far the biggest swing on the week) and is now tied for the 5th lowest game total in Week 2
  • CIN’s implied total of 25.75 is the 10th highest
  • DAL’s 17.25 is the 3rd lowest (it’s gone down by 8.8 since Dak was hurt)
  • 6th widest spread
  • Each team’s offense finished among the bottom eight teams in yards per play on offense
  • DAL finished third in seconds per play

Joe Burrow

  • Burrow ($6,600 in Week 2) finished 3rd in air yards in Week 1, but 24th in ADoT
  • His 26.2 DK pts ranked 4th
  • Last season, Burrow averaged 21.6
  • In 30 career games, he’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary five times
  • Notable opposing QB scores allowed by DAL last year: Taysom Hill 27.66 // Tom Brady 32.16 // Sam Darnold 36.54

CIN Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 10th ranked offensive line in Week 2
  • Week 1 snap share: Ja’Marr Chase 100% // Tyler Boyd 80% // Hayden Hurst 75% // Mike Thomas 69% // Tee Higgins 26%
  • Target share: Chase 30.2% // Hurst 15.1% // Boyd 13.2% // Thomas 9.4% // Higgins 3.8%
  • Chase ($8,000) finished second in target share among all WRs in Week 1
  • Per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer, Chase was 14th in WOPR
  • 2021’s 5th highest scoring WR in DK ppg, Chase started 2022 in 4th (31.9)
  • After Week 1, he’s now scored 30+ DK pts four times in 21 games
  • Higgins ($5,900) suffered a concussion and left Week 1 early
  • Should he play, he’s scored 4x his Week 2 salary three times in his past 18 games
  • Boyd ($5,400) scored 13.6 & 23.8 DK pts in Weeks 3 & 4 last season with Higgins absent
  • DAL ranked 23rd in DK ppg allowed to WRs last year (19th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Antonio Brown 26.7 // Chris Godwin 27.5 // Kadarius Toney 32.6 // DJ Moore 34.9
  • Per 4for4, Hurst ($3,600) ranked 10th in target share among all TEs in Week 1
  • He hasn’t scored 15 DK pts since 2020
  • DAL ranked 16th in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (4th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: John Bates 18.5 // Travis Kelce 18.8 // Rob Gronkowski 29

Joe Mixon

  • Per 4for4, among all RBs in Week 1, Mixon ($7,200) ranked first in % of team carries & ninth in % of team red zone carries, ninth in target share, 11th in air yard share, 11th in ADoT, & ninth in WOPR
  • He scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary four times last year: 28 vs. MIN // 28 vs. CLE // 31.5 vs. BAL // 35.3 vs. PIT
  • DAL ranked third in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (16th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Devontae Booker 20.8 // Damien Harris 20.8 // Austin Ekeler 22.5

Cooper Rush

  • Dak Prescott finished 32nd in Pass Expected Points Added per Play in Week 1 (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • Rush finished 33rd
  • In his lone regular season start, Rush ($5,000 DK salary in Week 2) scored 22.2 DK pts @ MIN last year
  • CIN allowed just 12.7 DK pts to Mitch Trubisky in Week 1
  • Last season they ranked 22nd in DK ppg allowed to QBs (19.2)
  • Notable opposing QB scores allowed: Kirk Cousins 25.04 // Justin Herbert 29.28 // Mike White 31.1

DAL Passing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Dalton Schultz 100% // CeeDee Lamb 97.1% // Noah Brown 88.4%
  • Target share: Lamb 26.2% // Schultz 21.4% // Brown 21.4%
  • Target counts in Week 8 last season under Cooper Rush’s lone start: Amari Cooper 13 // Lamb 8 // Schultz 7
  • Per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer, Lamb ($6,900) finished Week 1 at 18th in target share & 19th in WOPR
  • His Week 2 DK salary is nearly $1,000 lower than his peak last year
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 salary twice since 2021
  • Brown ($3,800) has yet to hit 12 DK pts in his career
  • CIN ranked 14th in DK ppg allowed to WRs last year (3rd in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: 
  • Schultz ($5,200) ranked 5th in target share, 9th in air yard share, 10th in ADoT, & 6th in WOPR among all Week 1 TEs (per 4for4)
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts three times since 2021
  • CIN ranked 29th in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (27th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Darren Waller 21.6 // Travis Kelce 25.5 // Mark Andrews 29.5 // George Kittle 37.1

DAL Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Ezekiel Elliott 58% // Tony Pollard 55.1%
  • Target share: Elliott 4.8% // Pollard 4.8%
  • Attempts: Elliott 10 // Pollard 6
  • Per 4for4, among all RBs in Week 1, Elliott finished 16th in % of team carries
  • Elliott ($5,900) has scored 25+ DK pts with Pollard on the roster a total of nine times
  • Pollard ($5,800) has done the same just twice
  • CIN ranked 20th in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (fifth in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Darrel Williams 25.7 // Najee Harris 31.2 // Michael Carter 32.2 // Nick Chubb 33.3

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 18th 4:25pm Eastern

Texans (
18) at

Broncos (

Over/Under 46.0


Key Matchups
Texans Run D
2nd DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per carry
Broncos Run O
14th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Texans Pass D
23rd DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per pass
Broncos Pass O
18th DVOA/25th Yards per pass
Broncos Run D
30th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Texans Run O
30th DVOA/26th Yards per carry
Broncos Pass D
26th DVOA/20th Yards allowed per pass
Texans Pass O
12th DVOA/5th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>
  • One of many games this week where the favored team is trying to bounce back after a surprising loss and the underdog is coming off of an emotional win (or tie in this case).
  • Houston doesn’t have any tactical or personnel advantages to exploit and has the tough task of playing a road game in Denver in September.
  • Denver will be looking to redeem themselves after a Monday night fiasco that was embarrassing on many levels.
  • Denver’s offensive metrics indicate likely positive regression in scoring, while Houston mostly relied on their opponent’s mistakes to put points up in Week 1.

How Houston Will Try To Win ::

The Texans had an impressive opening week performance that was ruined by head coach Lovie Smith curling up in a shell and just hoping time would run out in regulation once they built a 20-3 lead and then punting with 20 seconds left at midfield and settling for a tie. The Texans will try to ride their “kissing your sister” feeling to a road victory in Denver. Over the years, Denver has been notorious for being a difficult place for opposing teams to play, specifically early in the season, due to the altitude. This Week 2 matchup against a team that had a very disappointing opening week will certainly be a test of whether or not this Texans team is “for real” after hanging tough against the highly regarded Colts in Week 1.

Houston had a relatively balanced run/pass split in Week 1, with 40 pass plays and only 28 rushing attempts despite holding a lead for much of the game. Houston also played at the 4th fastest situation-neutral pace in the league in Week 1, after being bottom-10 in the league in 2021 in the same category. The Broncos defense should be a tough test, as they held the Seahawks to only 253 total yards in Week 1 and the Texans don’t really have any elite talents on their offense. The Texans will play scrappy and smart football, playing conservative but taking some calculated shots to try and pull off the road upset. Misdirection and spreading the ball around is likely Houston’s best chance of consistently moving the ball against the Broncos, as vanilla schemes or forcing the ball up the middle on the ground or through the air to Brandin Cooks is unlikely to get the job done.

How Denver Will Try to win ::

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By Dwprix >>


  • Despite DEN playing below expectations last week (16 pts, loss to SEA) & HOU playing above expectations (20 pts, tie with IND), DEN is a 10 point favorite
  • The game is tied with SF/SEA for the second highest spread on week (as of Tuesday)
  • Total has climbed from 42.5 to 46 
  • HOU D allowed the most total yards last week to IND (517)
  • DEN had the 4th most last week (433)

Davis Mills

  • Mills was sacked 3 times last week
  • His 37 attempts were the third most of his career (14 games)
  • He threw 49 times vs SEA & 43 times vs IND last season
  • Mills has two 300+ yard games in his career
  • Last week Mills targeted 11 players
  • DEN vs Geno Smith last week: 23:28:195:2 TDs 

Brandon Cooks

  • Cooks saw 12 tgts last week (33% tgt share)
  • No other HOU WR saw more than 3
  • Cooks has 10 or more tgts in four of his last five (12 // 4 // 11 // 10 // 11)
  • All of these were with Mills


  • It was thought Dameon Pierce would get the majority of snaps last week (First on depth chart, Texans declaring Pierce the starter)
  • Snaps (of 70): Rex Burkhead-50 // Dameon Pierce 20
  • Burkhead: Rush 14:40 // Pass 5:30-8 tgts
  • Pierce: Rush 11:33 // Rec 1:6-1 tgt

Russell Wilson

  • Wilson only has two 300+ yd passing game over his last 16 
  • One came last week: 29:42:340:1 TD
  • Over those same 16 games, he only has two with over 30 yds rushing
  • He has 4 total TD games in those 16
  • In the first three games of last season, Wilson started with 9 TDs & just 1 INT
  • Wilson targeted 10 receivers last week
  • HOU allowed to Matt Ryan: 32:50:352:1 tD:1 INT


  • Michael Pittman went 9:121:1 TD against HOU last week
  • Jeudy & Sutton both saw 7 tgts
  • Jeudy 4:102:1 TD // Sutton 4:72
  • KJ Hamler was on the field for 31 of 47 pass snaps & had only 1 tgt

Javonte Williams/Melvin Gordon

  • Javonte led team in tgts (12)
  • Gordon led in rush attempts (12)
  • Snaps: Javonte-38 // Gordon-27
  • 29 of Javonte’s 38 snaps were on pass plays (13 pass plays for Gordon)


  • DEN drafted TE Greg Dulcich in the 3rd round // He’s on IR & will miss at least four games
  • Snaps: Albert O. 44 // Tomlinson-20 // Saubert-18
  • Tgts: Albert O. 6 // Saubert-1 // Tomlinson-1

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 18th 4:25pm Eastern

Cards (
23) at

Raiders (

Over/Under 51.5


Key Matchups
Cardinals Run D
31st DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Raiders Run O
24th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Cardinals Pass D
31st DVOA/21st Yards allowed per pass
Raiders Pass O
28th DVOA/24th Yards per pass
Raiders Run D
17th DVOA/19th Yards allowed per carry
Cardinals Run O
8th DVOA/2nd Yards per carry
Raiders Pass D
8th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per pass
Cardinals Pass O
25th DVOA/29th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>
  • Arizona looks like they could be a bottom-tier team this year, with an aging roster and lack of creativity from the coaching staff.
  • Las Vegas lost a tough Week 1 game to a very good Chargers team but showed some signs of promise.
  • The Cardinals defensive scheme leaves them susceptible to the weapons of the Raiders.
  • The Cardinals are likely to face an uphill battle of game script for the second consecutive week.

How Arizona Will Try To Win ::

Arizona looked like a lost team in their season opening 44-21 decimation at the hands of the Chiefs that was somehow not even as close as the score would indicate. The defense showed no resistance to the Chiefs, and the offense averaged only 3.5 yards per play through nearly three quarters when the Chiefs started pulling defensive starters and played more conservatively on defense with a 37-7 lead. For reference, the Bears talent deficient offense averaged 3.6 yards per carry (which was last in the league for Week 1) in a monsoon against a very good 49ers defense. 

Kliff Kingsbury doesn’t appear to do much to change the “how they will try to win” situation for the Cardinals from week to week. Shotgun formations, spread offense, horizontal passing attack, quick tempo, and no-huddle. It looks the same every week, regardless of who they are playing. The scheme is built upon reliance on the Cardinals players making plays and beating their opponents, while their personnel really isn’t capable of winning in many areas of the field. When things break down, or the short, scripted plays don’t work, it often turns into a situation where Kyler Murray has to keep plays alive with his legs and hope something opens up. It really does make sense why Kyler was so apprehensive about being tied to this team and coach long-term, although $230 million will help you get over a lot of those concerns.

The Raiders defense played a solid game against a very good Chargers offense in Week 1 and will be a challenge for the Cardinals. There are no glaring weaknesses for Las Vegas that we should expect the Cardinals to change their approach to attack, especially given Kingsbury’s “I know better” attitude. The outcome of this game and how things play out is much more likely to be dictated by the Raiders than by the Cardinals.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

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JM >>
  • I felt the heat radiating off my computer screen reading that writeup
  • Davante Adams has been central to 90% of my practice builds so far this week, and I’ve messed around with plenty of Waller and Carr as well
  • It would be just like DFS for me to be too early to the Josh Jacobs party last week at practically zero-percent ownership, only for him to hit this week away from my roster; he’s in the mix for me, and he actually works on a “capture all the touchdowns” roster with Carr and a pass catcher as well; but there are better on-paper plays
  • Greg Dortch not only led Arizona in targets last week but also led all Arizona skill position players in snaps
    • While targets can be fluky, that type of snap rate tells us the Cardinals have him embedded in their plan
    • With Rondale Moore likely to miss, Dortch is in play as salary relief that should see higher pass play rates and softer coverage as this game moves along if Davante Adams or Darren Waller are hitting for a monster game (i.e., you can complete your bet on Adams or Waller by adding Dortch — while effectively lowering your average entry price to the Davante or Waller bet along the way)
  • That’s really it for me in this game…which speaks to the beauty of the concentrated offense the Raiders are giving us, while also continuing my trend over the last three seasons of “generally always avoiding the Cardinals themselves,” in spite of being very happy to play opposing players against their pace-up team

By Dwprix >>


  • Highest total on main slate (51.5)
  • LV is favored by 5.5 pts (opened 2.5)
  • ARZ is 1-6 in their last 7 // LV is 4-2 in their last 6 (including playoffs)
  • After starting last season with 7 straight wins, ARZ has only won 4 games since

Derek Carr

  • Carr was sacked 5 times last week vs LAC but only pressured on 11 dropbacks
  • He threw 3 INTs. It’s been since the first game of the 2018 season since his last 3 INT game (66 straight)
  • Carr had zero 3 TD games last season
  • ARZ was crushed by Patrick Mahomes last week: 30:39:350:5 TDs
  • Carr’s the 7th highest priced QB on DK & 11th on FD

Davante Adams

  • Although he changed teams, Davante has six 100+ yd games and 9 TDs over his last nine games.
  • Averages with Carr at Fresno St: 9 rec:117 yds:1.5 TDs (26 games)
  • Last week: 10:141:1 TD-17 tgts
  • 17 tgts led the league // 141 yds was 3rd highest

Darren Waller

  • Waller saw 6 targets last week
  • In 11 games last season, he saw less than 6 targets in only 2 games (got hurt and left early in one)
  • Travis Kelce vs ARZ last week: 8:121:1 TD-9 targets

Josh Jacobs

  • Jacobs averaged 5.7 yds per carry last week but only got 10 carries (Brandon Bolden saw 3 attempts for 7 yds)
  • LV rushed on 23% of their plays (2nd lowest)
  • His price went down $500 on DK to $5.8k & $400 on Fanduel to $6.6k
  • KC rushed for 128 yds:1 TD on 27 attempts last week.
  • AZ gave up 2 receiving TDs to CEH

Kyler Murray

  • Scored 20.6 DK points last week (Pass 193 yds: 2 TD // Rush 5:29)
  • Murray DK pts last season w/o Hopkins: (13.6 // 21.9 // 22.9 // 17.1 // 6.1)
  • His price went up $300 to $7.5k and he’s the most expensive QB on DK’s & FD’s main slate (no Mahomes, Allen, or Herbert) 
  • LV gave up 23.3 to Herbert 279 yds:3 TDs 

James Conner

  • Conner scored another TD (20 TDs in last 17 games)
  • He saw 10 carries & only rushed for 26 yds
  • Eno Benjamin saw 4 carries and out rushed Conner (28 yds)
  • LV gave up 127 yds on 27 attempts and 1 TD to KC last week


  • Greg Dortch saw 9 tgts: 7:63 yds
  • This was his 5th game (not counting special teams) // 2019 was his rookie year
  • DeAndre Hopkins will be out five more games
  • Newly acquired Marquise Brown: 4:43:1 TD-6 tgts

Kickoff Sunday, Sep 18th 8:20pm Eastern

Bears (
15.75) at

Packers (

Over/Under 41.5


Key Matchups
Bears Run D
4th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
17th DVOA/10th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
17th DVOA/11th Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
5th DVOA/10th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
26th DVOA/26th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
10th DVOA/6th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
27th DVOA/18th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
23rd DVOA/23rd Yards per pass


Sunday night football has the Bears traveling to the Packers for a game that started with a 45.5 total but has dropped all the way down to just 41.5, with Green Bay favored by a whopping 10 points. When I saw the enormous drop I thought it was weather-related but the weather looks fine . . . it’s just that both the Bears and the Packers absolutely flopped in Week 1 so bettors seem to have little confidence in them to put up points. We’ll see. 


We’ll start with the visitors and their run game. David Montgomery is priced like a near bell cow role, coming off of a game in which he handled 17 carries and four targets. Sans a dedicated pass-catching back, it looks like Monty is now established in that role for Chicago. He was on the field for 66% of the snaps, which fits into “near bell cow” territory. The issue, however, is the massive spread, in which even if Montgomery has a solid passing game role, he will be unlikely to be able to pay off his salary and end in optimal lineups (barring a fluky TD performance) without the Bears keeping the game close. I would want to primarily be deploying him in rosters that are predicated on the game being close or the Bears pulling off an upset. Behind Montgomery, Khalil Herbert played 29% of the snaps and saw 10 opportunities, and also averaging 5 yards per carry vs. just 1.5 for Montgomery (yikes). I can’t imagine any sort of changing of the guard here after just one game, but continued performance differences like this should eventually allow Herbert to carve out a larger role. Herbert scored a short touchdown, so clearly Montgomery isn’t the dedicated goal-line back, and Herbert has a real role. Given their prices, I’d be hesitant to put them on a roster together and certainly would not have Herbert in a roster in which I have Monty at captain. It’s worth noting as well in the “run game” section that Justin Fields ran a whopping 11 times last week, and while some of that was certainly driven by a run-heavy approach due to playing in a freaking monsoon, that kind of rushing usage for Fields is elite and should result in some very strong games this season if it continues. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Bears attack starts – and frankly, almost ends – with Darnell Mooney. Mooney is a strong talent and has a very robust role, and $7,800 is too cheap for his talent and workload. He’s a guy I want to be overweight on at this kind of price. Behind him, good luck. Equanimeous St. Brown, Dante Pettis (my old 49ers friend), and Byron Pringle represent the rest of the wide receiver corps (with snaps played in that order), with Cole Kmet as the primary tight end and Ryan Griffin backing him up. The Bears played with two TEs on the field roughly 50% of the time in Week 1 but it’s hard to know at this point if that was weather and game plan driven, or something they’re going to do normally. I think Kmet and Griffin are both viable plays here with Kmet clearly the better on-paper option and priced way down at just $2,000 after his Week 1 bagel. On the flip side, Pringle is overpriced for his Week 1 role of just 17% of the snaps but the Bears were deploying him as a deep threat in Week 1 and the weather didn’t really support that kind of role. The way I would view this is that Kmet is a very strong on-paper play (who will likely attract a ton of ownership at this price), St. Brown comes next in my pecking order, then Pettis, while Pringle is a VERY interesting tournament option if you believe his small role in Week 1 was primarily about the weather. If Pringle becomes the primary WR2 in better weather, he could be a key difference-maker at what I’m currently projecting to be extremely modest ownership. It’s super uncomfortable, but in large-field tournaments, I want to be overweight on Pringle. 


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By Alex88 >>


  • After dropping 3 pts since opening (second largest total decrease), this game’s total is now the 3rd lowest in Week 2
  • GB’s implied total of 26 is the eighth highest
  • The spread is the 5th widest
  • CHI ran the 5th fewest offensive plays in less than ideal weather
  • They finished dead last in offensive yards per play (3.6)
  • GB’s heralded defense (prior to Week 1, anyways) allowed the 6th most yards per play (6.5)

Justin Fields

  • Fields ($5,500 Week 2 DK salary) finished 2nd in EPA/play when blitzed and when in Play Action in Week 1 (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • He ranked 31st in Completion Percentage Over Expected
  • He averaged just six rushing attempts per game last season
  • In Week 2, he had 11 rushing attempts
  • Scored 25+ DK pts just once
  • GB ranked 25th in DK ppg allowed to QBs last year
  • Notable opposing QB scores allowed: Matthew Stafford 26.98 // Kirk Cousins 28.24 // Jameis Winston 29.62 // Tyler Huntley 35.9

CHI Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 31st ranked offensive line in Week 2
  • Week 1 snap share: Darnell Mooney 89.7% // Cole Kmet 82.8% // Equanimeous St. Brown 75.9%
  • Target share: Mooney 17.6% // St. Brown 17.6% // Byron Pringle 11.8% // Ryan Griffin 11.8% // Kmet 5.9%
  • Mooney ($5,400) has scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary three times since 2021
  • St. Brown ($4,100) has yet to hit 15 DK pts in his career
  • Pringle ($3,700) scored 20+ DK pts twice last season as a member of KC
  • GB ranked ninth in DK ppg allowed to WRs last season (30th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Terry McLaurin 28.2 // Amon-Ra St. Brown 29.1 // Ja’Marr Chase 30.9 // Justin Jefferson 40.2 // Jefferson 42.4
  • Neither Kmet ($3,500) nor Griffin ($2,600) have scored 15 DK pts since 2020
  • GB ranked 22nd in DK ppg allowed to TEs (eighth in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: George Kittle 17.1 // Travis Kelce 17.8 // T.J. Hockenson 20.6 // Mark Andrews 38.6

CHI Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: David Montgomery 65.5% // Khalil Herbert 29.3%
  • Target share: Montgomery 23.5% // Herbert 5.9%
  • Attempts: Montgomery 17 // Herbert 9
  • Red zone touches: Herbert 3 // Justin Fields 2
  • Montgomery ($5,700) finished third among all RBs in target share (minimum three targets) & fifth in WOPR, per 4for4
  • His Week 2 DK salary is about $1,000 lower than his highest price last season
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 salary three times since 2021
  • Herbert ($4,900) hit 15+ DK pts twice last season
  • GB ranked seventh in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (13th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Najee Harris 21.1 // Dalvin Cook 22.5 // Nick Chubb 30.4

Aaron Rodgers

  • Rodgers ($6,500 Week 2 DK salary) kicked off his attempt at a third consecutive MVP campaign by finishing Week 1 30th in Pass Expected Points Added per Play, 31st in EPA/play when blitzed, 30th in EPA/play when in Play Action, 19th in Completion Percentage Over Expected, 26th in Adjusted Yards per Attempt, 26th in air yards, 28th in ADoT, & 14th in On Target % (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • Last season, Rodgers ranked 7th in DK ppg (22.3)
  • He scored 4x his Week 2 salary four times in 19 games
  • Notable opposing QB scores allowed by CHI last year: Matthew Stafford 27.34 // Jimmy Garoppolo 30.28 // Kyler Murray 30.82 // Aaron Rodgers 32.64

GB Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 12th ranked offensive line in Week 2
  • Week 1 snap share without Allen Lazard: Sammy Watkins 67.2% // Christian Watson 65.6% // Randall Cobb 60.7% // Romeo Doubs 57.4%
  • Target counts: Doubs 5 // Robert Tonyan 5 // Watson 4 // Cobb 3 // Watkins 3
  • Lazard ($5,900) has returned to practice for the first time since his injury, per @RobDemovsky on Twitter (ESPN Packers beat reporter)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary twice in 43 games
  • Doubs ($3,800), Watson ($3,600), Cobb ($3,900), & Watkins ($4,400) all saw less targets than RB AJ Dillon, whose 6 targets led the team
  • RB Aaron Jones 5 targets were tied with Doubs & Tonyan for second on the team
  • CHI ranked 11th in DK ppg allowed to WRs last year (14th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Justin Jefferson 25.1 // Deebo Samuel 26.1 // Cooper Kupp 26.8 // Chris Godwin 28.1 // Mike Evans 31.6 // Davante Adams 37.1
  • Tonyan ($3,800) ranked 12th in Week 1 target share among all TEs, 10th in air yard share, 12th in ADoT, & 12th in WOPR
  • He scored 4x his Week 2 salary twice last season
  • CHI ranked sixth in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (sixth in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Mark Andrews 15.3 // Gerald Everett 16.8 // Pat Freiermuth 21.3

GB Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Aaron Jones 60.7% // AJ Dillon 50.8%
  • Target share: Dillon 15.4% // Jones 12.8%
  • Attempts: Dillon 10 // Jones 5
  • Red zone touches: Dillon 3 // Jones 2
  • Dillon ($5,800) last year had a target share of 6.2% per game
  • Per 4for4, among all RBs, Dillon finished Week 1 16th in % of team carries, sixth in % of High Value Touches, eighth in target share, & 12th in WOPR
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary twice in 27 games
  • Jones ($6,800) finished Week 1 ranked first in Rushing Yards Over Expectation per Carry, ninth in % of High Value Touches, & 15th in target share
  • His Week 2 DK salary is about $1,000 lower than his highest salary last year
  • Since 2020, Jones has scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary four times: 27.8 // 29 // 41.5 // 48.6

Kickoff Monday, Sep 19th 7:15pm Eastern

Titans (
18.75) at

Bills (

Over/Under 47.5


Key Matchups
Titans Run D
10th DVOA/7th Yards allowed per carry
Bills Run O
5th DVOA/9th Yards per carry
Titans Pass D
24th DVOA/14th Yards allowed per pass
Bills Pass O
3rd DVOA/7th Yards per pass
Bills Run D
18th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Titans Run O
18th DVOA/21st Yards per carry
Bills Pass D
9th DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Titans Pass O
24th DVOA/16th Yards per pass


Monday night brings us not one but two football games, for extra Showdown goodness! The first one looks like fun as the Titans visit the Bills for a game with a 47.5 total (which opened at 52, lol). Buffalo is favored by a massive 10 points here after Tennessee’s crummy Week 1 showing, which is, frankly, hard to argue with. Let’s explore.


On the Bills side, we know Josh Allen is basically the RB1 but we also have Devin Singletary, Zack Moss, and James Cook in the backfield. In Week 1, Singletary played 59% of the snaps and saw 10 RB opportunities (in a game the Bills won by 21 points, no less), while Moss played 37% of the snaps and saw 12 opportunities, including six targets. James Cook played three snaps, had one carry, fumbled it, and was never heard from again. Presumably, Cook will carve out a role this season but there’s nothing that points to it happening this week . . . except that the NFL is weird, and Cook is likely to be extremely low-owned so he’s worthwhile as a tourney flier. Singletary and Moss fall into the normal “Buffao backfield is a shitshow” situation. Neither got a lot of work despite the Bills absolutely curb-stomping the defending Super Bowl champs last week so it’s hard to see what would point to more work this week, except that we know there will be games in which Buffalo runs more, and we know that running backs on good offenses can put up strong scores when touchdown variance swings their way. Singletary is the starter and is fairly priced at $7,400, while Moss feels a bit underpriced down at $3,600. There’s another factor that could point in their favor here, which is that Gabe Davis is questionable with an ankle injury (late week downgrades are never good). My interest in the Buffalo backfield will go up a fair bit of Davis misses, while I expect the field will flock to their receiving corps, leaving the RBs as good tournament leverage points.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Buffalo should be able to do what they want against a mediocre Titans secondary. In Week 1, Stef Diggs reminded the NFL world that he is in fact an elite receiver who just ran really poorly on touchdown variance last season, and he’s in a smash spot here. He’s an amazing play and an expensive one. Assuming Davis misses (remember that guys who are downgraded late in the week usually miss), Isaiah McKenzie should be in for a bit more work, but be wary here of thinking that he’s suddenly a smash play – he’ll be out there but he’s not likely to run on the perimeter where Davis plays, and he may well continue splitting time in the slot with Jamison Crowder. My guess here, which is pure conjecture on my part, is that Crowder’s 31% snap count last week was driven at least partially by McKenzie entering the week with a questionable tag. I think McKenzie is the better receiver, I think Buffalo believes that as well, and I expect his role to grow as the season goes on. Should Davis miss, the most logical replacement on the perimeter would be Jake Kumerow. Kumerow would be on the field a lot, and he’s just $200, but we can’t expect him to earn the same kind of target share as Davis. He’s going to project really well but he’s also going to be somewhat of a fragile play. At what would likely be enormous ownership, I would personally be taking an underweight position on him. At tight end, Dawson Knox only saw two targets in Week 1. Better times should be coming for Knox, and his market share of targets should creep up a bit with no Davis, but keep in mind that Knox is generally a 3-6 target kind of guy who’s going to need a touchdown to pay off. You can include Tommy Sweeney and Khalil Shakir (if Davis is out) in MME pools as thin punt options.


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By Alex88 >>


  • Total opened at 51 but has dipped to 47.5 (fifth highest in Week 2)
  • That drop has primarily come on the TEN side, where their implied total has dipped by 2.5 pts
  • BUF’s implied total of 28.75 is the second highest of Week 2
  • 10 pt spread is the fourth widest
  • Mike Vrabel’s Titans rankings in fewest seconds per snap since 2018: 29th // 22nd // 5th // 27th // 28th (after Week 1)
  • Sean McDermott’s Bills rankings since 2017: 5th // 20th // 12th // 27th // 16th // 32nd (after Week 1)

Ryan Tannehill

  • Tannehill (CPT $13,800/FLEX $9,200) ranks 4th in PFF passing grade after Week 1
  • Per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer, he ranks 6th in Pass EPA/Play, 4th in Adj. Yards/Att., Air Yards/Game, & 6th in ADoT
  • As a road dog for the Titans, Tannehill has scored 25+ DK pts once in 12 games: 27/39:331:1:2 passing & 4:38:1 rushing
  • He’s played Buffalo once in each of the past two seasons
  • Game logs: 18/29:216:0:1 & 2:3:1 for 13.94 DK pts // 21/28:195:3 & 4:42:1 for 30 DK pts
  • BUF ranked first in DK ppg allowed to QBs last year (third after Week 1)
  • Only five opposing QBs have hit 20+ DK pts vs. BUF since 2021
  • Notable scores allowed: Tom Brady 33.12 // Patrick Mahomes 43.02

TEN Passing Attack

  • After Week 1, PFF ranked the TEN offensive line 13th
  • Week 1 snap share: Robert Woods 70.8% // Geoff Swaim 69.2% // Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 67.7% // Austin Hooper 61.5% // Kyle Philips 46.2% // Treylon Burks 36.9%
  • Target share: Philips 27.3% // Burks 15.2% // Swaim 12.1% // Hooper 6.1% // Westbrook 6.1% // Woods 6.1%
  • Target counts: Philips 9 // Burks 5 // Swaim 4 // Hooper 2 // Westbrook 2 // Woods 2
  • Philips (CPT $7,500/FLEX $5,000) led TEN in slot usage in his first career game
  • His Week 1 line: 6/9:66 for 11.6 DK pts
  • Burks (CPT $9,300/FLEX $6,200) Week 1 line: 3/5:55 for 8.5 DK pts
  • Woods (CPT $9,900/FLEX $6,600) Week 1 line: 1/2:13 for 2.3 DK pts
  • Westbrook (CPT $6,600/FLEX $4,400) Week 1 line: 1/2:13 for 2.3 DK pts
  • BUF ranked first in DK ppg allowed to WRs last year (26th after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Mike Evans 21.1 // Chris Godwin 23.5 // Kendrick Bourne 28.1 // Tyreek Hill 34.8 // Cooper Kupp 34.8
  • Swaim (CPT $4,500/FLEX $3,000) Week 1 line: 3/4:19 for 4.9 DK pts
  • Swaim has yet to hit 13 DK pts in his career
  • Hooper (CPT $5,700/FLEX $3,800) Week 1 line: 1/2:6 for 1.6 DK pts
  • Hooper has notable scores of 17.6 DK pts in 2021 & 15.1 in 2020
  • BUF ranked fourth in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (14th after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores allowed: Logan Thomas 13.2 // Travis Kelce 17.7 // Kelce 23.6

TEN Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Derrick Henry 67.7% // Dontrell Hilliard 18.5%
  • Target share: Hilliard 12.1% // Henry 3%
  • Target counts: Hilliard 4 // Henry 1
  • Attempts: Henry 21 // Hilliard 2
  • Each RB had a single red zone target
  • Henry (CPT $16,500/FLEX $11,000) had the lone red zone rush attempt
  • As a road dog, Henry averages 19.13 DK pts since 2018 in 16 games, with several notable scores: 28.9 // 29.32 // 30.4 // 41.5 // 50.7
  • Three out of five of those scores happened as a dog with at least a five pt spread
  • Hilliard (CPT $7,200/FLEX $4,800) Week 1 line: 2:8 rushing & 3/4:61:2 receiving for 21.9 DK pts
  • With Henry hurt from Weeks 9-18, Hilliard averaged the fourth most targets per game on the team (3.2)
  • Including Week 1, he has three career 15+ DK pt games (out of eight total games) but only Week 1’s 21.9 effort happened with Henry active
  • BUF ranked 16th in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (fourth after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Damien Harris 20.1 // Leonard Fournette 26.2 // Harris 31.3 // Derrick Henry 38.6 // Jonathan Taylor 56.4

Josh Allen

  • Allen (CPT $18,900/FLEX $12,600) ranks first in PFF passing grade after Week 1
  • Per 4for4, after Week 1, Allen ranks second in Pass EPA/Play, fourth in Completion Percentage Over Expected, & eighth in Adj. YPA
  • In nine career September games as a favorite, he’s scored 33+ DK pts five times (three times in 2020, once in 2021, & last week)
  • In four career games vs. TEN: 10.18 // 18.32 // 18.46 // 32.72 (last year)
  • TEN ranked 18th in DK ppg allowed to QBs last year (18th after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing QB scores allowed: Russell Wilson 26.32 // Davis Mills 30.24 // Josh Allen 32.72 // Kyler Murray 34.56

BUF Passing Attack

  • After Week 1, PFF ranked the BUF offensive line at 23rd
  • Week 1 snap share: Gabe Davis 98.3% // Dawson Knox 86.4% // Stefon Diggs 64.4% // Isaiah McKenzie 44.1% // Jamison Crowder 30.5%
  • Target share: Diggs 29% // Davis 16.1% // Crowder 12.9% // McKenzie 9.7% // Knox 6.5%
  • Target counts: Diggs 9 // Davis 5 // Crowder 4 // McKenzie 3 // Knox 2
  • Davis (CPT $13,200/FLEX $8,800) is expected to miss this game with an injury occurring on Saturday
  • Diggs (CPT $17,100/FLEX $11,400) ranked 14th in target share in Week 1, tied for first in end zone target share, eighth in air yard share, 10th in WOPR, sixth in yards per route run, & 17th in targets per route run (per 4for4)
  • He averages 20.27 DK ppg as a Bill when favored, 15.23 when the underdog
  • Scored 25+ DK pts in nine out of 39 games as a Bill
  • Crowder (CPT $7,800/FLEX $5,200) ranked eighth in TPRR in Week 1
  • His Week 1 line: 3/4:28 for 5.8 DK pts
  • In 41 career games since the 2019 season, he’s scored 20+ DK pts nine times
  • McKenzie (CPT $8,400/FLEX $5,600) Week 1 line: 2/3:19:1 for 9.9 DK pts
  • In 43 career games, he’s scored 15+ DK pts three times: 16.9 // 30.5 // 32.4
  • TEN ranked 31st in DK ppg allowed to WRs last year (14th after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores allowed since 2021: DeAndre Hopkins 26.3 // Michael Pittman 30.6 // Deebo Samuel 31.1 // Tyler Lockett 34.8 // Danny Amendola 35.3
  • Knox (CPT $8,700/FLEX $5,800) Week 1 line: 1/2:5 for 1.5 DK pts
  • In 47 career games, Knox has scored 15+ DK pts seven times
  • TEN ranked seventh in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (first after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores allowed since 2021: Tyler Higbee 10.1 // Dan Arnold 11.4 // Travis Kelce 13.5 // C.J. Uzomah 14.1

BUF Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Devin Singletary 59.3% // Zack Moss 37.3% // James Cook 5.1%
  • Target share: Moss 19.4% // Singletary 6.5%
  • Targets: Moss 6 // Singletary 2
  • Attempts: Singletary 8 // Moss 6 // Cook 1
  • Red zone touches: Josh Allen 2 // Singletary 1 // Moss 1
  • Singletary (CPT $11,100/FLEX $7,400) Week 1 line: 8:48 rushing & 2/2:14 receiving for 8.2 DK pts
  • In 21 games as a home favorite, he’s scored 20+ DK pts four times
  • Moss (CPT $5,400/FLEX $3,600) Week 1 line: 6:15 rushing & 6/6:21 receiving for 8.6 DK pts
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts three times in 27 career games
  • Cook FLEX $1,400 (be honest, no one is playing him at CPT) fumbled on his first snap and only saw two more snaps after that (no more touches)
  • TEN ranked first in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (32nd after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores allowed since 2021: Mark Ingram 20.8 // Jonathan Taylor 21.2 // Joe Mixon 22.5 // James Robinson 24.7 // Saquon Barkley 36.4

Kickoff Monday, Sep 19th 8:30pm Eastern

Vikings (
23.25) at

Eagles (

Over/Under 49.5


Key Matchups
Vikings Run D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
6th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per pass
Eagles Run D
19th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
27th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
28th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
21st DVOA/17th Yards per pass


Week 2 comes to a close as the Vikings visit the Eagles. This one opened at 48 points but has been bet up to 50.5, which I think feels reasonable as the Eagles are an elite offense with A.J. Brown in town. Philly is even favored here by 2.5 (an unusual situation for the Eagles against a good team!). 


We’ll start with the Eagles. Their backfield is a mess. They scored FOUR rushing touchdowns in Week 1, one by Jalen Hurts and then one from each of their three main running backs. Miles Sanders is the lead back here but that only netted him 15 opportunities last week, while Kenneth Gainwell played 30% of the snaps and saw nine opportunities, and Boston Scott played 18% of the snaps and saw four opportunities. Sanders is the lead guy here, clearly, but $8k is a steep price to pay for a back who will rarely if ever hit 20+ touches this season, and who will get vultured by the other running backs and his quarterback. Gainwell at $5k and Scott at $2.8k are not exactly bargains, either. They’re all in play for tournaments because any of them can score touchdowns, but my overall reaction to this backfield is “yikes.” I’ll play some of them, but I want to be lower than the field (or at least lower than I expect the field to be). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Brown wasted no time establishing his dominance, catching 10 of 13 passes (on just 32 Hurts pass attempts). That’s a 40% target share, folks, and while I don’t think it will remain that high all year, it’s clear that Hurts trusts Brown and that he’s going to be the dominant receiver in this offense. Justin Jefferson is also on this slate, which introduces some difficult choices. Jefferson is going to project better (and should), but he’s likely going to come with quite a bit more ownership, leaving Brown potentially underowned relative to his upside. Brown’s enormous Week 1 left scraps for everyone else, which resulted in significant price drops for Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith, to $5,800 and $5,200 respectively. Both were on the field for over 90% of the snaps and both are good-to-great players, and at those prices, they’re spots I want to be overweight the field on. The receiving corps rounds out with Quez Watkins, Zach Pascal, Jack Stoll, and Noah Togiai, who are basically all just tourney dart throws.


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  • Third highest game total in Week 2
  • PHI’s implied total of 25.75 is the seventh highest
  • MIN ranked ninth in fewest seconds per snap last season (27th after Week 1)
  • PHI ranked 13th in fewest seconds per snap last season (fourth after Week 1)
  • Both teams finished in the top half of ppg on offense
  • On defense, both teams finished in the top half of most offensive plays allowed (MIN was second)
  • They were also both in the top half of most offensive ppg allowed

Kirk Cousins

  • Cousins (CPT $14,700/FLEX $9,800) finished Week 1 ranked seventh in Pass EPA/play, ninth in Completion Percentage Over Expected, & third in Adj. YPA (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • He ranked 2nd in PFF passing grade in Week 1
  • In 11 career Monday games, he’s never scored 30 DK pts
  • The last time he scored 20 DK pts on Monday was in 2017 (zero 20 pt games out of five appearances since then)
  • Out of 34 career road games as a Viking, he’s scored 25+ DK pts seven times
  • PHI ranked fifth in DK ppg allowed to QBs last year (15th after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Trevor Siemian 26.16 // Dak Prescott 31.8 // Patrick Mahomes 32.72 // Justin Herbert 34.64

MIN Passing Attack

  • After Week 1, PFF ranks the MIN offensive line at 14th
  • Week 1 snap share: Adam Thielen 95.2% // Justin Jefferson 91.9% // K.J. Osborn 67.7% // Johnny Mundt 64.5% // Irv Smith 30.6%
  • Target share: Jefferson 34.4% // Thielen 12.5% // Osborn 12.5% // Mundt 9.4% // Smith 6.2%
  • New Head Coach Kevin O’Connell utilized 11 personnel at the highest rate in the league en route to a Super Bowl victory last year as the LAR Offensive Coordinator
  • Jefferson (CPT $19,500/FLEX $13,000) led the team in target share last year with 27.6%
  • He finished Week 1 ranked sixth in target share, tied for fifth in end zone target share, second in air yard share, third in WOPR, first in Yards Per Route Run, & eighth in Targets Per Route Run (per 4for4)
  • In 34 career games, he’s averaging 20.29 DK ppg
  • His Week 1 game log: 9/11:184:2 for 42.4 DK pts
  • Thielen (CPT $10,800/FLEX $7,200) was second in target share on the team last season (15.7%)
  • Since Jefferson joined the team, Thielen has averaged 16.29 DK ppg (in 29 games)
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts 11 times in that span
  • Osborn (CPT $6,900/FLEX $4,600) was fourth in team target share last year (13.6%)
  • He has four games of 15+ DK pts out of 17 career games (9.58 DK ppg)
  • PHI ranked second in DK ppg allowed to WRs last year (22nd after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Keenan Allen 25.4 // Mike Evans 29.7 // Cedrick Wilson 31.9 // Tyreek Hill 50.6
  • Mundt (FLEX $2,000) presumably outworked Smith due to the latter’s injury recovery
  • Mundt’s Week 1 game line: 3/3:17 for 4.7 DK pts
  • Smith (CPT $6,600/FLEX $4,400) Week 1 line: 0/2:0
  • He averages 6.36 DK ppg in 29 appearances (seven games with double digits)
  • PHI ranked 31st in DK app allowed to TEs last year (10th after Week 1)
  • 16 instances of an opposing TE scoring double digit DK pts vs. PHI since 2021

MIN Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Dalvin Cook 77.4% // Alexander Mattison 22.6%
  • Target share/targets: Cook 15.6%/5
  • Attempts: Cook 20 // Mattison 8
  • Redzone attempts: Mattison 2 // Cook 1
  • Last year’s snap share: Cook 53.3% // Mattison 33%
  • Cook (CPT $16,500/FLEX $11,000) finished Week 1 ranked seventh in carry share (per 4for4)
  • After averaging 20+ DK ppg in 2019 & 2020, Cook’s average fell to 15.9 last year (per the Fantasy Labs Trends tool)
  • He has 17 games of 25+ DK pts out of 44 (since 2019)
  • Mattison (CPT $6,300/FLEX $4,200) finished Week 1 ranked second in Broken Tackle % & 14th in Yards After Contact per Carry
  • Mattison has scored double digit DK pts just three times with Cook active
  • PHI ranked 22nd in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (31st after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Ezekiel Elliott 26.6 // D’Andre Swift 29.5 (in Week 1) // Leonard Fournette 30.7

Jalen Hurts

  • Hurts (CPT $17,400/FLEX $11,600) finished Week 1 ranked fourth in Pass EPA/play (per 4for4)
  • He ranked 3rd in PFF passing grade in Week 1
  • In 24 career games, he’s averaged 23.47 DK ppg (including two 30+ performances and one 40+ performance)
  • His 9.3 rushing attempts last season ranked second behind Lamar Jackson’s 11.1
  • Hurts’s Week 1 line: 18/32:243 passing & 17:90:1 rushing
  • MIN ranked 28th in DK ppg allowed to QBs last year (first after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Ben Roethlisberger 28.82 // Lamar Jackson 35.64 // Aaron Rodgers 36.5 // Kyler Murray 38.1

PHI Passing Attack

  • The PHI offensive line remained atop PFF’s rankings after Week 1
  • Week 1 snap share: DeVonta Smith 96.1% // Dallas Goedert 92.2% // A.J. Brown 87% // Quez Watkins 53.2%
  • Target share: Brown 40.6% // Goedert 12.5% // Smith 12.5%
  • Targets: Brown 13 // Goedert 4 // Smith 4
  • Brown (CPT $15,600/FLEX $10,400) finished Week 1 ranked second in target share, first in air yard share, first in WOPR, fourth in YPRR, & eighth in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • In 49 career games, he’s scored 20+ DK pts 18 times (including six 30+ scores)
  • His Week 1 line: 10/13:155 for 28.5 DK pts
  • Smith (CPT $7,800/FLEX $5,200) averaged 11.6 DK ppg last season
  • His three best scores: 22.2 // 22.6 // 25.6
  • Smith’s Week 1 line: 0/4:0
  • Watkins (FLEX $3,200) has just two double digit DK scores (and zero 20+) in his career
  • MIN ranked 32nd in DK ppg allowed to WRs last year (fourth after Week 1)
  • There were 13 instances of an opposing WR scoring 20+ DK pts vs. MIN last year
  • Goedert (CPT $8,700/FLEX $5,800) has scored double digit DK pts nine times since 2021 (including one 20+ pt game & a 30 pt effort)
  • Last season, he ranked 10th in target share, 12th in air yard share, 11th in WOPR, & 9th in YPRR among all TEs (per 4for4)
  • MIN ranked 10th in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (24th after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Gerald Everett 10.4 // Pat Freiermuth 11.2 // Josiah Deguara 11.7 // Cole Kmet 13.1 // T.J. Hockenson 14.9 // Maxx Williams 16.4

PHI Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Miles Sanders 51.9% // Kenneth Gainwell 29.9% // Boston Scott 18.2%
  • Target share: Gainwell 12.5% // Sanders 6.2%
  • Targets: Gainwell 4 // Sanders 2
  • Attempts: Sanders 13 // Gainwell 5 // Scott 4
  • Red zone attempts: Jalen Hurts 4 // Sanders 3 // Gainwell 2 // Scott 1
  • Sanders (CPT $12,000/FLEX $8,000) finished Week 1 ranked fourth in Rush Yards Over Expected per Carry, fifth in Rush EPA/Carry, 11th in Broken Tackle %, fifth in Yards After Contact per Carry, & 15th in High Value Touch % (per 4for4)
  • His notable DK scores since 2021: 17.3 // 18.5 // 19.6 // 20.2
  • Sanders has no other scores over 15 DK pts, and only one other double digit performance
  • Gainwell (FLEX $5,000) finished Week 1 ranked fifth in High Value Touch %
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts five times since 2021
  • Gainwell has just two other double digit DK scores
  • Scott (FLEX $2,800) has just five double digit DK scores since 2021, with ceiling scores of 18 & 24.6 DK pts
  • MIN ranked 23rd in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (29th after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: AJ Dillon 20.1 // Dillon 22.3 // D’Andre Swift 22.4 // Sony Michel 23.5 // Najee Harris 25.4 // Joe Mixon 28 // Elijah Mitchell 30.8