Kickoff Sunday, Sep 18th 1:00pm Eastern

Patriots (
21.5) at

Steelers (
18.5)

Over/Under 40.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Patriots Run D
17th DVOA/22nd Yards allowed per carry
Steelers Run O
20th DVOA/29th Yards per carry
Patriots Pass D
11th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Steelers Pass O
22nd DVOA/15th Yards per pass
Steelers Run D
18th DVOA/32nd Yards allowed per carry
Patriots Run O
7th DVOA/8th Yards per carry
Steelers Pass D
9th DVOA/9th Yards allowed per pass
Patriots Pass O
16th DVOA/14th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By papy324>>
  • The strongest play from this game is likely to be a Defense
  • The Patriots are likely to outperform public expectations
  • Diontae Johnson and Najee Harris are mispriced for their roles/talent
  • Pat Freiermuth saw 10 targets in Week 1

How Pittsburgh Will Try To Win ::

A leprechaun named Lucky isn’t as fortunate as Mike Tomlin. The Steelers forced five turnovers in Week 1, sacking Joe Burrow seven times, while not turning the ball over on offense, and (surprisingly) only allowing one sack for a two-yard loss. Despite those discrepancies, The Steelers needed a mistake filled overtime to win, and that overtime was forced by a Minkah Fitzpatrick blocked extra point kick as time expired. Had the Bengals executed that extra point, the Steelers would have become the first team to lose a game with a plus five turnover margin and seven sacks in the last fifty years.

How did the Steelers nearly lose a game they dominated thoroughly on defense? Their offense was pathetic. Tomlin has engaged in “troll yourself” mode by starting Mitch Trubisky over the clearly superior Kenny Pickett. Tomlin is trolling himself because if the Steelers win (despite Trubisky playing horribly), he can’t make a change at QB, because winning, duh. If the Steelers drop out of contention, then go to Pickett, the year goes to waste. This creates a lose/lose scenario. Even though the world has had four years to see what Trubisky is (a backup-level QB), Tomlin clearly needs a fifth. With Tomlin’s luck, Trubisky will get hurt and he’ll be forced to make the correct play, saving himself, but until then, this offense will be weighed down by a below-average quarterback.

Tomlin is more of a button masher than a strategic thinker. Remember when it looked like he had figured out that going for two consistently was a plus EV play? Well, turned out he was just going for two randomly (usually if the Steelers scored first) to “set the tone.” The Steelers played fast last week (2nd in total pace) but they showed large discrepancies between the first half (26th in pace) and the second half (2nd in pace). In Week 1, there was nearly a two-second gap in pace between the Steelers and the third fastest team in the second half. This game was never more than two scores apart and the Steelers were leading throughout, so why then did they play at warp speed in the second half with a lead, after playing slow in the first half? Ask Tomlin.

The Steelers offense is just as likely to play fast as it is slow, but one thing that should remain consistent is a “beat the man across from you” scheme, operated by a below-average QB. With the Patriots run defense (15th DVOA) and pass defense (19th DVOA) performing similarly last week, expect the Steelers to stick with their pass-leaning and balanced approach on offense, where their success will be hampered by inefficient QB play. Expect Matt Canada to try and set up one on one outside shots (these appear to be more of a staple of his offense without noodle-armed Big Ben), while mixing in the running game to try and bring up the safeties. Bill Belichick is adaptable on both sides of the ball, but he has recently preferred to lean on man coverage. Since I doubt Belichick respects Trubisky, there should be plenty of single high coverages for the Steelers attack on the outside. The success or failure of their offense will hinge on how many of those shots hit since they are likely to struggle to sustain drives.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

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OVERVIEW

  • After decreasing by 2 pts since opening (fourth largest drop), this game is now tied for the lowest game total with NYJ @ CLE
  • PIT’s implied total of 19.5 is the 7th lowest
  • Despite playing in a game that was decided with 0 seconds left in overtime, PIT still finished 20th in total offensive plays, per Lineups.com
  • Their Week 1 opponent, CIN, ran 94 offensive plays
  • PIT finished 5th in fewest seconds per play, per TeamRankings.com
  • NE ran the 29th fewest offensive plays at the 22nd fastest pace

Mac Jones

  • Dealing with a back injury but expected to play in Week 2
  • In 19 career games, Jones ($5,200 Week 2 DK salary) averages 17.7 expected DK pts
  • Scored just 10.52 pts in Week 1 loss @ MIA
  • Hit 20+ DK pts just three times: 22.28 // 24.5 // 25.18
  • Despite generating 5 turnovers on Joe Burrow, PIT still allowed 26.2 DK pts (4th most in Week 1)
  • Last season they ranked 12th in DK ppg allowed to QBs
  • Star defensive lineman TJ Watt will not play in Week 2
  • Notable opposing QB scores last season: Aaron Rodgers 24.12 // Derek Carr 27.18 // Justin Herbert 38.28 // Patrick Mahomes 41.06

NE Passing Attack

  • PFF’s sixth ranked offensive line in Week 2
  • Week 1 snap share: DeVante Parker 100% // Jakobi Meyers 87.7% // Hunter Henry 77.2% // Jonnu Smith 68.4% // Nelson Agholor 57.9%
  • Target share: Meyers 20% // Agholor 16.7% // Smith 13.3% // Ty Montgomery 13.3% // Henry 10% // Parker 6.7%
  • In Week 1, Meyers ($4,400) finished 12th in ADoT & 24th in air yard market share among all WRs (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 salary twice since the 2021 season
  • Agholor has scored 4x his Week 2 salary ($3,600) twice since the 2021 season
  • Parker ($4,500) has not scored 4x his Week 2 salary since the 2020 season
  • PIT ranked 13th in DK ppg allowed to WRs last season (28th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Henry Ruggs 25.5 // Byron Pringle 25.5 // Tee Higgins 26.4 // Courtland Sutton 28 // Ja’Marr Chase 31.9
  • Smith ($3,200) finished 11th in ADoT in Week 1 among all TEs
  • He’s yet to score 12 DK pts as a Patriot
  • Henry ($3,600) put up three GPP worthy DK scores last season
  • PIT ranked 9th in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (19th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Mark Andrews 16.5 // Travis Kelce 28.88

NE Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Damien Harris 38.6% // Rhamondre Stevenson 24.6%
  • Target share: Harris 10% // Stevenson 6.7%
  • Attempts: Harris 9 // Stevenson 8
  • Harris ($5,500) had the lone red zone touch among the RBs
  • Per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer, Harris ranked 17th in Rushing Yards Over Expectation per Carry among all RBs in Week 1 & third in Broken Tackle %
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary twice with Mac Jones under center
  • Stevenson ($5,200) finished 13th in Broken Tackle %
  • He’s also scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary twice with Mac Jones
  • PIT ranked 26th in DK ppg allowed to RBs last season (21st in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Jerick McKinnon 26.2 // Joe Mixon 35.3 // Dalvin Cook 38.2 // Austin Ekeler 41.5

Mitch Trubisky

  • Priced at just $5,000 on DK
  • Hasn’t scored 25+ DK pts since 2019
  • Finished 8th in air yards in Week 1 & 14th in ADoT (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stats Explorer)
  • NE ranked 2nd in DK ppg allowed to QBs last year
  • They held MIA’s Tua Tagovailoa to just 14.8 DK pts in Week 1
  • NE allowed 20+ DK pts just four times last year: Davis Mills 27.68 // Dak Prescott 31.8 // Josh Allen 33.96 // Allen 41.92

PIT Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 30th ranked offensive line in Week 2
  • Week 1 snap share: Chase Claypool 92.1% // Pat Freiermuth 88.9% // Diontae Johnson 81% // George Pickens 71.4%
  • Target share: Johnson 31.6% // Freiermuth 26.3% // Claypool 15.8% // Pickens 7.9%
  • In Week 1, Johnson ($5,800) finished 9th in target share among all WRs
  • Per 4for4, he was 16th in air yard share & 11th in WOPR
  • His Week 2 salary is nearly $2,000 lower than his peak last season
  • Johnson scored 4x his Week 2 salary three times last season
  • Claypool ($4,700) had six rushing attempts in Week 1, second only to Deebo Samuel’s 8
  • His Week 2 salary is nearly $2,000 lower than his peak last season
  • Claypool has scored 4x his Week 2 salary once last season
  • Pickens ($3,600) only had three targets in Week 1
  • NE ranked fourth in DK ppg allowed to WRs last season (24th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Stefon Diggs 21.5 // Isaiah McKenzie 32.4 // CeeDee Lamb 39.1
  • Freiermuth ($4,400) finished 1st in Week 1 target share among all TEs, 5th in air yard share, 9th in ADoT, & 1st in WOPR
  • He scored 4x his Week 2 salary once last season
  • NE ranked first in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (5th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Dawson Knox 25.9

PIT Rushing Attack

  • Najee Harris ($6,200) lasted 37 snaps before exiting Week 1 with an injury
  • Jaylen Warren ($5,400) received all of the RB work in his place: 3 att for 7 yds and a single target
  • As of Wednesday evening, Harris claims to be fine and on track to play in Week 2
  • He led all RBs in usage last season
  • His Week 2 DK salary is over $2,000 below his peak last season
  • He scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary four times in 19 career games
  • NE ranked 18th in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (11th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Austin Ekeler 24.4 // Devin Singletary 24.4 // Jonathan Taylor 26