Panthers (

22.25) at
Giants (

21.25)

GAME OVERVIEW ::

BY Hilow >>

• New Giants defensive coordinator Wink Martindale blitzed at a 48.6% clip in Week 1 after coming over from the same position in Baltimore, where they finished no lower than sixth in overall blitz rate (last year, first in each of the preceding three seasons) over the previous four seasons.
• Baker Mayfield has a career 35.8 PFF rating when under pressure (41.8% completion percentage – lolz) and 57.3 PFF rating when blitzed (compared to an elite 74.0 PFF rating with a clean pocket.)
• The Giants pass catchers are a veritable mess outside of Saquon Barkley – nobody can be fully trusted until we get more clarity.
• Carolina would do well to get Christian McCaffrey more than five first half touches this week.
• DJ Moore is a stud versus man coverages, something he should see plenty of against a Wink Martindale defense.

HOW CAROLINA WILL TRY TO WIN ::

Matt Rhule’s Panthers looked lost offensively to begin the season, adapting a hyper conservative game plan and not opening things up until deep into the fourth quarter in Week 1. It’s honestly a shame they almost came back to win late because it could lead to a somewhat validated feeling amongst the coaching staff, which is truly too bad considering the pieces of the offense. Christian McCaffrey maintains his position as one of the true workhorse running backs in the NFL, yet he was afforded only five first half touches in Week 1. For all intents and purposes, this team still has a lot to figure out as far as identity goes. One interesting aspect is the disconnect between feigned aggression and play calling as the Panthers ranked towards the top of the league in pace of play in Week 1, but were both timid on early downs and one-dimensional through the air until late in the fourth quarter. From a pure game planning perspective, we should expect the Panthers to get out ahead of the likely high blitz rates from the Giants, meaning short-to-intermediate passing to D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey.

The Panthers backfield is Christian McCaffrey’s. He played a massive 83% snap rate in Week 1 on his way to a 23% team target market share and 77% route participation rate; however, his low 17% targets per route run and 61% team rush share were well below his career norm. There’s two ways to look at this: (1) the floor is in for McCaffrey for the remainder of the year as the latter two values increase to meet his career norms, or (2) Rhule is making a concerted effort to lighten his load while not lessening his snap rate. The former makes a whole heck of a lot more sense to me considering the elite snap rate and route participation rate we saw in Week 1, while the latter seems like pure idiocy, in my humble opinion. As in, why in the world would Rhule not manage his workload by lessening his snap rate to get the same elite per-touch production instead of calling plays around his elite back while he’s on the field? All of that is a fancy way of saying, “CMC is going to be just fine, and I think we just saw a floor performance.” The matchup is middling against a non-formidable Giants defensive line, with the primary detractor being the shortcomings of Carolina’s offensive line. The only worry here is the lack of dynamic and schemed usage for CMC to start the year after two lost seasons, something I am not currently overly concerned about.

The Panthers were held to a paltry 53 offensive plays run from scrimmage against a Browns team that controlled the game throughout. The interesting part about the setup of this one is that the Giants are now strangely well-equipped to do just that – control the game through their defense and ground game. That said, and true to Rhuleian form, the top two wide receivers played every single offensive snap in Week 1. DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson accounted for 14-of-27 Baker Mayfield pass attempts, good for a combined 51.6% team target market share. My takeaway here is that DJM, CMC, and Anderson are going to be the driving forces in this offense on a weekly basis, which could present some buying opportunities before we see them put everything together. The high blitz rates of Wink Martindale’s defense on the other side should force heavier rates of man coverage and ball-out-quick from Mayfield, meaning D.J. Moore and Christian McCaffrey should see heavier target shares than the more downfield Robbie Anderson. And guess who holds a top-10 career success rate against man coverage? Yeah, D.J. Moore does (greater than 30% target share against man coverages each of the last three seasons.) His 2.40 yards of average separation versus man coverage is absolutely elite.

How New york Will Try To Win ::