Kickoff Sunday, Sep 18th 8:20pm Eastern

Bears (
15.75) at

Packers (
25.75)

Over/Under 41.5

Tweet
Notes

Key Matchups
Bears Run D
22nd DVOA/23rd Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O
7th DVOA/18th Yards per carry
Bears Pass D
10th DVOA/3rd Yards allowed per pass
Packers Pass O
13th DVOA/8th Yards per pass
Packers Run D
32nd DVOA/11th Yards allowed per carry
Bears Run O
6th DVOA/14th Yards per carry
Packers Pass D
13th DVOA/10th Yards allowed per pass
Bears Pass O
32nd DVOA/30th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday night football has the Bears traveling to the Packers for a game that started with a 45.5 total but has dropped all the way down to just 41.5, with Green Bay favored by a whopping 10 points. When I saw the enormous drop I thought it was weather-related but the weather looks fine . . . it’s just that both the Bears and the Packers absolutely flopped in Week 1 so bettors seem to have little confidence in them to put up points. We’ll see. 

Chicago

We’ll start with the visitors and their run game. David Montgomery is priced like a near bell cow role, coming off of a game in which he handled 17 carries and four targets. Sans a dedicated pass-catching back, it looks like Monty is now established in that role for Chicago. He was on the field for 66% of the snaps, which fits into “near bell cow” territory. The issue, however, is the massive spread, in which even if Montgomery has a solid passing game role, he will be unlikely to be able to pay off his salary and end in optimal lineups (barring a fluky TD performance) without the Bears keeping the game close. I would want to primarily be deploying him in rosters that are predicated on the game being close or the Bears pulling off an upset. Behind Montgomery, Khalil Herbert played 29% of the snaps and saw 10 opportunities, and also averaging 5 yards per carry vs. just 1.5 for Montgomery (yikes). I can’t imagine any sort of changing of the guard here after just one game, but continued performance differences like this should eventually allow Herbert to carve out a larger role. Herbert scored a short touchdown, so clearly Montgomery isn’t the dedicated goal-line back, and Herbert has a real role. Given their prices, I’d be hesitant to put them on a roster together and certainly would not have Herbert in a roster in which I have Monty at captain. It’s worth noting as well in the “run game” section that Justin Fields ran a whopping 11 times last week, and while some of that was certainly driven by a run-heavy approach due to playing in a freaking monsoon, that kind of rushing usage for Fields is elite and should result in some very strong games this season if it continues. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, the Bears attack starts – and frankly, almost ends – with Darnell Mooney. Mooney is a strong talent and has a very robust role, and $7,800 is too cheap for his talent and workload. He’s a guy I want to be overweight on at this kind of price. Behind him, good luck. Equanimeous St. Brown, Dante Pettis (my old 49ers friend), and Byron Pringle represent the rest of the wide receiver corps (with snaps played in that order), with Cole Kmet as the primary tight end and Ryan Griffin backing him up. The Bears played with two TEs on the field roughly 50% of the time in Week 1 but it’s hard to know at this point if that was weather and game plan driven, or something they’re going to do normally. I think Kmet and Griffin are both viable plays here with Kmet clearly the better on-paper option and priced way down at just $2,000 after his Week 1 bagel. On the flip side, Pringle is overpriced for his Week 1 role of just 17% of the snaps but the Bears were deploying him as a deep threat in Week 1 and the weather didn’t really support that kind of role. The way I would view this is that Kmet is a very strong on-paper play (who will likely attract a ton of ownership at this price), St. Brown comes next in my pecking order, then Pettis, while Pringle is a VERY interesting tournament option if you believe his small role in Week 1 was primarily about the weather. If Pringle becomes the primary WR2 in better weather, he could be a key difference-maker at what I’m currently projecting to be extremely modest ownership. It’s super uncomfortable, but in large-field tournaments, I want to be overweight on Pringle. 

<< Add Access >>

OWS FREE

(No CC Required!)

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • After dropping 3 pts since opening (second largest total decrease), this game’s total is now the 3rd lowest in Week 2
  • GB’s implied total of 26 is the eighth highest
  • The spread is the 5th widest
  • CHI ran the 5th fewest offensive plays in less than ideal weather
  • They finished dead last in offensive yards per play (3.6)
  • GB’s heralded defense (prior to Week 1, anyways) allowed the 6th most yards per play (6.5)

Justin Fields

  • Fields ($5,500 Week 2 DK salary) finished 2nd in EPA/play when blitzed and when in Play Action in Week 1 (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • He ranked 31st in Completion Percentage Over Expected
  • He averaged just six rushing attempts per game last season
  • In Week 2, he had 11 rushing attempts
  • Scored 25+ DK pts just once
  • GB ranked 25th in DK ppg allowed to QBs last year
  • Notable opposing QB scores allowed: Matthew Stafford 26.98 // Kirk Cousins 28.24 // Jameis Winston 29.62 // Tyler Huntley 35.9

CHI Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 31st ranked offensive line in Week 2
  • Week 1 snap share: Darnell Mooney 89.7% // Cole Kmet 82.8% // Equanimeous St. Brown 75.9%
  • Target share: Mooney 17.6% // St. Brown 17.6% // Byron Pringle 11.8% // Ryan Griffin 11.8% // Kmet 5.9%
  • Mooney ($5,400) has scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary three times since 2021
  • St. Brown ($4,100) has yet to hit 15 DK pts in his career
  • Pringle ($3,700) scored 20+ DK pts twice last season as a member of KC
  • GB ranked ninth in DK ppg allowed to WRs last season (30th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Terry McLaurin 28.2 // Amon-Ra St. Brown 29.1 // Ja’Marr Chase 30.9 // Justin Jefferson 40.2 // Jefferson 42.4
  • Neither Kmet ($3,500) nor Griffin ($2,600) have scored 15 DK pts since 2020
  • GB ranked 22nd in DK ppg allowed to TEs (eighth in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: George Kittle 17.1 // Travis Kelce 17.8 // T.J. Hockenson 20.6 // Mark Andrews 38.6

CHI Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: David Montgomery 65.5% // Khalil Herbert 29.3%
  • Target share: Montgomery 23.5% // Herbert 5.9%
  • Attempts: Montgomery 17 // Herbert 9
  • Red zone touches: Herbert 3 // Justin Fields 2
  • Montgomery ($5,700) finished third among all RBs in target share (minimum three targets) & fifth in WOPR, per 4for4
  • His Week 2 DK salary is about $1,000 lower than his highest price last season
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 salary three times since 2021
  • Herbert ($4,900) hit 15+ DK pts twice last season
  • GB ranked seventh in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (13th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Najee Harris 21.1 // Dalvin Cook 22.5 // Nick Chubb 30.4

Aaron Rodgers

  • Rodgers ($6,500 Week 2 DK salary) kicked off his attempt at a third consecutive MVP campaign by finishing Week 1 30th in Pass Expected Points Added per Play, 31st in EPA/play when blitzed, 30th in EPA/play when in Play Action, 19th in Completion Percentage Over Expected, 26th in Adjusted Yards per Attempt, 26th in air yards, 28th in ADoT, & 14th in On Target % (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • Last season, Rodgers ranked 7th in DK ppg (22.3)
  • He scored 4x his Week 2 salary four times in 19 games
  • Notable opposing QB scores allowed by CHI last year: Matthew Stafford 27.34 // Jimmy Garoppolo 30.28 // Kyler Murray 30.82 // Aaron Rodgers 32.64

GB Passing Attack

  • PFF’s 12th ranked offensive line in Week 2
  • Week 1 snap share without Allen Lazard: Sammy Watkins 67.2% // Christian Watson 65.6% // Randall Cobb 60.7% // Romeo Doubs 57.4%
  • Target counts: Doubs 5 // Robert Tonyan 5 // Watson 4 // Cobb 3 // Watkins 3
  • Lazard ($5,900) has returned to practice for the first time since his injury, per @RobDemovsky on Twitter (ESPN Packers beat reporter)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary twice in 43 games
  • Doubs ($3,800), Watson ($3,600), Cobb ($3,900), & Watkins ($4,400) all saw less targets than RB AJ Dillon, whose 6 targets led the team
  • RB Aaron Jones 5 targets were tied with Doubs & Tonyan for second on the team
  • CHI ranked 11th in DK ppg allowed to WRs last year (14th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Justin Jefferson 25.1 // Deebo Samuel 26.1 // Cooper Kupp 26.8 // Chris Godwin 28.1 // Mike Evans 31.6 // Davante Adams 37.1
  • Tonyan ($3,800) ranked 12th in Week 1 target share among all TEs, 10th in air yard share, 12th in ADoT, & 12th in WOPR
  • He scored 4x his Week 2 salary twice last season
  • CHI ranked sixth in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (sixth in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Mark Andrews 15.3 // Gerald Everett 16.8 // Pat Freiermuth 21.3

GB Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Aaron Jones 60.7% // AJ Dillon 50.8%
  • Target share: Dillon 15.4% // Jones 12.8%
  • Attempts: Dillon 10 // Jones 5
  • Red zone touches: Dillon 3 // Jones 2
  • Dillon ($5,800) last year had a target share of 6.2% per game
  • Per 4for4, among all RBs, Dillon finished Week 1 16th in % of team carries, sixth in % of High Value Touches, eighth in target share, & 12th in WOPR
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary twice in 27 games
  • Jones ($6,800) finished Week 1 ranked first in Rushing Yards Over Expectation per Carry, ninth in % of High Value Touches, & 15th in target share
  • His Week 2 DK salary is about $1,000 lower than his highest salary last year
  • Since 2020, Jones has scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary four times: 27.8 // 29 // 41.5 // 48.6