Kickoff Thursday, Sep 15th 8:15pm Eastern

Chargers (
24.5) at
Chiefs (
28.5)

Over/Under 53.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Chargers Run D
22nd DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Chiefs Run O
11th DVOA/11th Yards per carry
Chargers Pass D
30th DVOA/28th Yards allowed per pass
Chiefs Pass O
6th DVOA/19th Yards per pass
Chiefs Run D
27th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per carry
Chargers Run O
28th DVOA/28th Yards per carry
Chiefs Pass D
5th DVOA/2nd Yards allowed per pass
Chargers Pass O
16th DVOA/21st Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 2 kicks off with the Chargers visiting the Chiefs in a 54.5 total game, which is the highest of the week, wow, that’s a lot of points. Kansas City is favored by 3.5 so overall we’re expecting some offensive fireworks here from two teams who combined for 68 total points in Week 1. 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

Kansas City

We’ll start with the Chiefs and their run game. Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a nice game on limited volume, rushing seven times for 42 yards and catching all three of his targets for two touchdowns. CEH was the clear lead back early in the game, spelled by Jerick McKinnon, who saw eight opportunities of his own. Preseason hype-monster Isaiah Pacheco saw 12 opportunities, leading the team, but 10 of those came on the game’s final two drives when the Chiefs were up by a ton and were pulling their starters. I’m seeing some Pacheco hype out there, and personally, I’m not buying it. I think he’s a reasonable talent and it’s not impossible that his role grows throughout the season but since almost all of his Week 1 work came in garbage time, and CEH performed well, I don’t think there’s any changing of the guard happening yet. I’m viewing CEH as the RB1 (albeit with no realistic shot at 20+ carries because that’s not how the Chiefs offense operates), McKinnon as the RB2, and Pacheco as the RB3. CEH is slightly overpriced for his likeliest workload (I’d expect to see him in the $7k range), McKinnon looks like a screaming value at $2,600, while Pacheco is overpriced at $4,400; and he could carry a decent amount of ownership based on his Week 1 performance so it isn’t even a “pay up to be contrarian” situation. Personally, I’m X’ing out Pacheco and aiming to be overweight on McKinnon, absent news later in the week that changes things. 

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Overview

  • Teams combined for 54 & 62 pts last season
  • Teams split games: LAC 30 @ KC 24 // KC 34 @ LAC 28 (OT)
  • Total this week is currently 54.5
  • Chiefs are 3.5 pt home favorites
  • KC scored the most points of any team in WK 1 (44)
  • LAC hadn’t been held to 24 or less in 6 straight games until last week

Patrick Mahomes

  • Mahomes was the QB1 across all scoring formats & overall player in STD & ½ pt PPR last week (#2 in PPR)
  • 30:39:360:5 TDs
  • LAC allowed 22:37:295:2 TDs:3 INTs to Derek Carr
  • Carr was sacked 5 times vs LAC D
  • Mahomes wasn’t sacked last week 
  • KC took the 3rd least sacks last regular season on the 2nd most pass attempts

Travis Kelce

  • Kelce ran a route on 33 snaps & pass blocked on one last week
  • In games w/o Tyreek 2019: 7:107:1TD-9 tgts // 7:89-8 tgts // 7:85-8 tgts // 4:70-10 tgts // 2022: 8:121:1 TD-9 tgts // Averages: 7:94-8.8 tgts
  • TE1 across all scoring formats
  • Among non-QBs, he finished 10th overall in PPR (26.1) & DK (29.1) // 9th overall in ½ pt/FanDuel (22.1)
  • LAC gave up 11.9 DK pts to TEs last week (8th most)
  • Kelce has averaged 8.3 rec:109 yds:1 TD-11.3 tgts over his last 4 vs LAC

KC WRs

  • Routes run (of 44): MVS-35 // JuJu-35 // Hardman-27 // Justin Watson-9 // Sky Moore-7 
  • Tgts: JuJu-8 // MVS-4 // Hardman-6 // Watson-1 // Moore-1
  • Mecole Hardman led team with 3 RZ targets (Kelce & CEH saw 2 each)
  • LAC allowed 40.8 DK pts to WRs (11th most)
  • Davante Adams vs LAC: 10:141:1TD-17 tgts

KC RBs

  • Snaps (of 70): CEH-27 // McKinnon-27 // Isaiah Pacheco-16
  • Routes Run:Tgts: CEH-15:3 // McKinnon-18:4 // Pacheco-4:0
  • CEH rush // pass: 12:62:1TD // 3:32:2TD 
  • McKinnon rush // pass: 4:22 // 3:27
  • Pacheco rush: 12:62:1TD 
  • Pacheco only saw 2 carries in the 1st half. His other 10 came after KC was ahead 44-15.
  • LAC allowed 20.2 DK pts last week vs LV to RBs
  • Josh Jacobs: 10:57 rush // 1:16:1TD pass

Justin Herbert 

  • Herbert has a rush TD in 3 of 4 games vs KC
  • His averages vs KC: Pass 23:35:283 yds:2.5 TDs // Rush 15 yds:.75 TDs
  • Herbert completed passes to nine receivers last week
  • He had eight total incompletions
  • 26:36:279:3 TDs
  • KC D allowed to Kyler Murray last week: Pass 22:34:193:2 TDs // Rush 5:29 

LAC WRs

  • Keenan Allen injured his hamstring last week towards the end of the 2nd qtr & will likely miss this week
  • Pass snaps of 35: Mike Williams-32 // Josh Palmer 25 // DeAndre Carter 14 // Allen-13
  • Herbert targeted 11 players on 34 attempts
  • 7 players saw 4 targets (Allen, Carter, Everett, Ekeler, Mckitty, Williams, & Palmer)
  • Herbert & Mahomes were the only QBs to throw at least 3 TDs w/o an INT last week
  • They were also 2 of 3 QBs that didn’t get sacked (Mariotta)

Austin Ekeler

  • Ekeler played 33 snaps (49%) & saw 14 carries (45%)
  • Josh Kelley played 18 (27%) & Sony Michel 16 (24%)
  • ARZ RBs vs KC caught 8:62-10 tgts
  • LAC RBs caught 6:50-6 tgts (Ekeler 4:36)
  • Ekeler had scored at least one TD in 8 straight games before last week

LAC TEs

  • Passing snaps: Gerald Everett-23 // Tre’ McKitty-13
  • Everett 3:54:1 TD-4 tgts // McKitty 3:24:1 Fumble-4 tgts
  • McKitty was the lowest graded TE on LAC’s offense last week (PFF)
  • KC gave up one TD to Zach Ertz last week