Jets (

16) at
Browns (

22.5)

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Jets looked lost offensively against the Ravens but their game plan indicated a clear understanding of the path of least resistance from their coaching staff.
• Should that dynamic game planning and game calling continue into Week 2, we’re likeliest to see a more balanced approach against the Browns.
• The Browns game plan remains very clear: split a heavy rush workload amongst their two elite backs behind one of the league’s top offensive lines (and hide the fact that they have Jacoby Brissett at quarterback).
• The path of least resistance is likely to align with how each team chooses to bias their attack.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Jets found themselves in a difficult situation for Week 1, eventually playing without their starting quarterback and two high-profile injuries to their offensive line (Mekhi Becton was lost for the season with a knee injury, and fill-in veteran starter Duane Brown was placed on IR ahead of their opener). I was highly interested to see how they approached the game plan against a Ravens defense with injuries in the secondary, and it was made apparent very swiftly that head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Mike LaFluer had no issues turning to the pass when the clear path of least resistance called for it. As such, we should start our exploration into the likeliest plan of attack for the Jets with their opponent, the Cleveland Browns. Joe Woods utilizes heavy zone concepts, an athletic 4-2-5 front, and low blitz rates to generate organic pressure in the backfield and keep the play in front of the second level through a base cover-2/nickel package secondary. When you combine the prevent nature of the Cleveland defense with the expected high rush rates of their offense behind one of the league’s top offensive lines, we’re left with a likeliest plan of attack that should shift a little more conservative from the Jets this week. As in, I don’t think we’re likeliest to see 59 pass attempts versus just 17 total rush attempts from the Jets in Week 2. Furthermore, we’re highly unlikely to see the Jets run 76 offensive plays due to their opponent and their offensive tendencies (the Jets were afforded that many plays run from scrimmage last week due to the pass-leaning tendencies of the Ravens paired with untimely and costly turnovers).

Staying true to their preseason word, the backfield materialized as a near 50-50 split in snap rate and opportunity share, with Michael Carter the “starter” and lead rusher and electric rookie Breece Hall the change of pace and long down and distance to go back. The negative game flow and the inability of their receivers to shake heavy man coverages led to the backfield seeing a combined 19 of 59 pass attempts directed their way, good for a lofty 32.2% running back target market share split 10 targets for Hall and nine for Carter. The Jets mustered 4.06 adjusted line yards through their offensive line in Week 1, which is actually quite remarkable considering the Ravens defensive line ran the top marks in the league last week. That makes sense when looking at the retooled offensive line for the Jets, with the injury concerns coming at the left tackle position (which also helps to explain a bottom-five adjusted sack rate). In all, the matchup yields a slightly below-average 4.13 net-adjusted line yards metric in what should be an area of emphasis for the Jets.

Elijah Moore ran as the clear alpha of this pass-catching corps in Week 1 with a hefty 89% snap rate and 73.3% route participation rate but saw only seven targets (a lowly 12.7% targets per route run, which, for comparison, was leagues below his 24% targets per route run value in 2021). In what would seem like another anomaly, Moore was targeted on 31% of his routes against man coverage versus 18% versus zone in 2021. In a matchup against heavy zone principles, we could see Moore put up modest numbers once more if his targets per route run values to start the season are an indication of a more spread offensive game plan. Corey Davis remained the clear WR2 on this offense behind Moore, playing 57 offensive snaps (68%) compared to 41 for rookie Garrett Wilson (49%) and 39 for Braxton Berrios (46%). All indications point to this split behind Moore remaining consistent moving forward unless (or until) Wilson asserts himself on the perimeter. At tight end, Tyler Conklin dominated the snaps and opportunities, parlaying a 92% snap rate into seven targets (CJ Uzomah mustered 27% of the offensive snaps and saw zero targets while Lawrence Cager saw a 12% snap rate and one target). That said, this is historically an offense that utilizes the tight ends sparingly in the passing game, which again transpired in Week 1.

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

• Note 1: if you don’t utilize the Matchups tab at the top of NFL Edge games, you’re doing things wrong!
  • (My process :: I go through every game on the slate four times myself, thinking through different angles and researching different aspects each time; I then read the Edge writeup first and the Matchups research second, finalize my thoughts, and pop in my Interpretations)

• A data point from Matchups that really stands out to me this week: Cleveland gave up three monster games to quarterbacks last season, but those QBs were Kyler, Mahomes, and Herbert; Cleveland gave up three monster games to wideout last season, but those wideouts were Davante Adams, Mike Williams, and Tyreek Hill
• The Jets are implied to score under 17 real-life points, which would make it tremendously difficult for them to produce a slate-winner from any individual player
• Due to the low prices on Elijah Moore and Corey Davis (and the low bar they therefore have to clear in order to be part of a tourney-winning roster), I would be fine playing either guy as a one-off; that said, the muddy path to a two-TD game from either guy makes it much sharper, by the numbers, to only play these guys as limited pieces of large-field builds, rather than “hoping to guess right” in smaller-field play (i.e., I like these guys, but neither will make my tighter player pool)
• One of the “plays of the week” is “Cleveland backfield”; unfortunately, “Cleveland backfield” is two guys, each of whom is priced for ceiling — meaning your best case in rostering them is typically “the score you need to have,” and your worst case if avoiding them is almost never going to be “they put up a score I had to have in order to win a tourney, and now I’m dead in the water because they weren’t on my roster”
  • Put all that together, and neither of these guys will make my late-week pool
• The Browns’ defense is capable of making noise in this one, but if the game stays close enough, the Jets are likely to fail from “low time of possession and a balanced offense that doesn’t score enough points” — which limits paths to big plays for the Cleveland DST
• As a limited-entry player, I’ll likely have nothing at all from this game