Kickoff Sunday, Sep 18th 1:00pm Eastern

Jets (
16) at

Browns (
22.5)

Over/Under 38.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Jets Run D
12th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per carry
Browns Run O
2nd DVOA/4th Yards per carry
Jets Pass D
32nd DVOA/30th Yards allowed per pass
Browns Pass O
6th DVOA/27th Yards per pass
Browns Run D
26th DVOA/12th Yards allowed per carry
Jets Run O
17th DVOA/27th Yards per carry
Browns Pass D
21st DVOA/5th Yards allowed per pass
Jets Pass O
23rd DVOA/20th Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The Jets looked lost offensively against the Ravens but their game plan indicated a clear understanding of the path of least resistance from their coaching staff.
  • Should that dynamic game planning and game calling continue into Week 2, we’re likeliest to see a more balanced approach against the Browns.
  • The Browns game plan remains very clear: split a heavy rush workload amongst their two elite backs behind one of the league’s top offensive lines (and hide the fact that they have Jacoby Brissett at quarterback).
  • The path of least resistance is likely to align with how each team chooses to bias their attack.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Jets found themselves in a difficult situation for Week 1, eventually playing without their starting quarterback and two high-profile injuries to their offensive line (Mekhi Becton was lost for the season with a knee injury, and fill-in veteran starter Duane Brown was placed on IR ahead of their opener). I was highly interested to see how they approached the game plan against a Ravens defense with injuries in the secondary, and it was made apparent very swiftly that head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Mike LaFluer had no issues turning to the pass when the clear path of least resistance called for it. As such, we should start our exploration into the likeliest plan of attack for the Jets with their opponent, the Cleveland Browns. Joe Woods utilizes heavy zone concepts, an athletic 4-2-5 front, and low blitz rates to generate organic pressure in the backfield and keep the play in front of the second level through a base cover-2/nickel package secondary. When you combine the prevent nature of the Cleveland defense with the expected high rush rates of their offense behind one of the league’s top offensive lines, we’re left with a likeliest plan of attack that should shift a little more conservative from the Jets this week. As in, I don’t think we’re likeliest to see 59 pass attempts versus just 17 total rush attempts from the Jets in Week 2. Furthermore, we’re highly unlikely to see the Jets run 76 offensive plays due to their opponent and their offensive tendencies (the Jets were afforded that many plays run from scrimmage last week due to the pass-leaning tendencies of the Ravens paired with untimely and costly turnovers).

Staying true to their preseason word, the backfield materialized as a near 50-50 split in snap rate and opportunity share, with Michael Carter the “starter” and lead rusher and electric rookie Breece Hall the change of pace and long down and distance to go back. The negative game flow and the inability of their receivers to shake heavy man coverages led to the backfield seeing a combined 19 of 59 pass attempts directed their way, good for a lofty 32.2% running back target market share split 10 targets for Hall and nine for Carter. The Jets mustered 4.06 adjusted line yards through their offensive line in Week 1, which is actually quite remarkable considering the Ravens defensive line ran the top marks in the league last week. That makes sense when looking at the retooled offensive line for the Jets, with the injury concerns coming at the left tackle position (which also helps to explain a bottom-five adjusted sack rate). In all, the matchup yields a slightly below-average 4.13 net-adjusted line yards metric in what should be an area of emphasis for the Jets.

Elijah Moore ran as the clear alpha of this pass-catching corps in Week 1 with a hefty 89% snap rate and 73.3% route participation rate but saw only seven targets (a lowly 12.7% targets per route run, which, for comparison, was leagues below his 24% targets per route run value in 2021). In what would seem like another anomaly, Moore was targeted on 31% of his routes against man coverage versus 18% versus zone in 2021. In a matchup against heavy zone principles, we could see Moore put up modest numbers once more if his targets per route run values to start the season are an indication of a more spread offensive game plan. Corey Davis remained the clear WR2 on this offense behind Moore, playing 57 offensive snaps (68%) compared to 41 for rookie Garrett Wilson (49%) and 39 for Braxton Berrios (46%). All indications point to this split behind Moore remaining consistent moving forward unless (or until) Wilson asserts himself on the perimeter. At tight end, Tyler Conklin dominated the snaps and opportunities, parlaying a 92% snap rate into seven targets (CJ Uzomah mustered 27% of the offensive snaps and saw zero targets while Lawrence Cager saw a 12% snap rate and one target). That said, this is historically an offense that utilizes the tight ends sparingly in the passing game, which again transpired in Week 1.

How Cleveland Will Try To Win ::

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  • Note 1: if you don’t utilize the Matchups tab at the top of NFL Edge games, you’re doing things wrong!
    • (My process :: I go through every game on the slate four times myself, thinking through different angles and researching different aspects each time; I then read the Edge writeup first and the Matchups research second, finalize my thoughts, and pop in my Interpretations)
  • A data point from Matchups that really stands out to me this week: Cleveland gave up three monster games to quarterbacks last season, but those QBs were Kyler, Mahomes, and Herbert; Cleveland gave up three monster games to wideout last season, but those wideouts were Davante Adams, Mike Williams, and Tyreek Hill
  • The Jets are implied to score under 17 real-life points, which would make it tremendously difficult for them to produce a slate-winner from any individual player
  • Due to the low prices on Elijah Moore and Corey Davis (and the low bar they therefore have to clear in order to be part of a tourney-winning roster), I would be fine playing either guy as a one-off; that said, the muddy path to a two-TD game from either guy makes it much sharper, by the numbers, to only play these guys as limited pieces of large-field builds, rather than “hoping to guess right” in smaller-field play (i.e., I like these guys, but neither will make my tighter player pool)
  • One of the “plays of the week” is “Cleveland backfield”; unfortunately, “Cleveland backfield” is two guys, each of whom is priced for ceiling — meaning your best case in rostering them is typically “the score you need to have,” and your worst case if avoiding them is almost never going to be “they put up a score I had to have in order to win a tourney, and now I’m dead in the water because they weren’t on my roster”
    • Put all that together, and neither of these guys will make my late-week pool
  • The Browns’ defense is capable of making noise in this one, but if the game stays close enough, the Jets are likely to fail from “low time of possession and a balanced offense that doesn’t score enough points” — which limits paths to big plays for the Cleveland DST
  • As a limited-entry player, I’ll likely have nothing at all from this game

By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • Tied for the lowest game total of Week 2
  • NYJ’s implied total of 16.75 is the third lowest
  • The 6.5 pt spread is the seventh widest
  • NYJ finished Week 1 second in fewest seconds per play
  • CLE ranked 26th
  • Excluding two teams that played in overtime, NYJ and CLE were third and fourth (respectively) in total offensive plays in Week 1
  • CLE managed that feat by having the highest percentage time of possession

Joe Flacco

  • Finished 13th in PFF passing grade in Week 1
  • In Week 1, Flacco ($5,100 in Week 2) finished 24th in Pass Expected Points Added per Play, eighth in Play Action Expected Points Added per Play, & 13th in air yards (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • He has one 20+ pt DK score since 2020
  • CLE ranked 10th in DK ppg allowed to QBs last year (18th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Kyler Murray 25.76 // Patrick Mahomes 36.28 // Justin Herbert 45.82

NYJ Passing Attack

  • NYJ’s offensive line is ranked 24th after Week 1, per PFF
  • Week 1 snap share: Tyler Conklin 91.7% // Elijah Moore 89.3% // Corey Davis 67.9% // Garrett Wilson 48.8%
  • Target share: Davis 15.3% // Wilson 13.6% // Moore 11.9% // Conklin 11.9%
  • Target counts: Davis 9 // Wilson 8 // Moore 7 // Conklin 7
  • Moore ($5,000) led the team in target share last season at 12.8%
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary three times in 11 career games
  • Davis ($4,600) has scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary twice in his past 10 games
  • Wilson’s ($4,400) eight targets produced his first NFL stat line of 4:52
  • CLE ranked 10th in DK ppg allowed to WRs last year (16th in Week 1)
  • Just three opposing WRs scored 25+ DK pts vs. CLE, but all three put up GPP winning scores: Davante Adams 36.4 // Mike Williams 39.5 // Tyreek Hill 40.1
  • Conklin ($3,400) finished Week 1 ranked sixth in total targets and in end zone target share among all TEs (per 4for4)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary three times in 28 career games
  • CLE ranked 18th in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (13th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Mark Andrews 16.5 // Hunter Henry 19.7 // Travis Kelce 25.6 // Andrews 31.5

NYJ Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Michael Carter 59.5% // Breece Hall 45.2%
  • Target share: Hall 16.9% // Carter 15.3%
  • Targets: Hall 10 // Carter 9
  • Attempts: Carter 10 // Hall 6
  • Red zone touches: Hall 2 // Carter 1
  • Carter ($5,200) finished Week 1 ranked 12th in Rush Yards Over Expected per Carry, first in broken tackle %, 12th in High Value Touch %, 12th in target share, & 15th in WOPR (per 4for4)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary just once in 15 career games (32.2 vs. CIN)
  • Hall ($5,200) ranked 11th in High Value Touch %, seventh in target share, seventh in air yard share, eighth in ADoT, & sixth in WOPR
  • CLE ranked 13th in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (10th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: D’Andre Swift 25.6 // Joe Mixon 28 // Rhamondre Stevenson 30.4 // Najee Harris 32.6 // Austin Ekeler 33.9

Jacoby Brissett

  • Finished 29th in PFF passing grade in Week 1
  • In Week 1, Brissett ($5,400) finished seventh in EPA/play when blitzed (per 4for4)
  • He hasn’t scored 20+ DK pts since 2019
  • NYJ ranked 27th in DK ppg allowed to QBs last year (24th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing QB scores: Mac Jones 25.18 // Taysom Hill 26.3 // Tom Brady 30.4
  • In 18 games, QB’s averaged 20.18 DK ppg vs. NYJ

CLE Passing Attack

  • CLE’s offensive line is ranked second after Week 1, per PFF
  • Week 1 snap share: David Njoku 88.8% // Amari Cooper 82.5% // Donovan Peoples-Jones 82.5%
  • Target share: DPJ 32.4% // Cooper 17.6% // Harrison Bryant 11.8%
  • Targets: DPJ 11 // Cooper 6 // Bryant 4 // Njoku 1
  • DPJ ($4,400) previous high in targets in a single game was eight
  • Per 4for4, among all WRs in Week 1, he ranked fourth in target share, 10th in end zone target share, 14th in air yard share, & 7th in WOPR
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary twice in 21 career games
  • Cooper ($5,400) has scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary four times in his past 36 games
  • NYJ ranked eighth in DK ppg allowed to WRs last year (20th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Cyril Grayson 20.1 // Jaylen Waddle 20.6 // Devin Duvernay 21.4 // Stefon Diggs 23.1 // Diggs 33.2
  • Njoku ($3,700) averages 3.7 targets per game (per StatMuse)
  • His 30.9 DK pt explosion @ LAC last season was the first time he’d ever scored 15+ DK pts
  • NYJ ranked 28th in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (17th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Rob Gronkowski 21.5 // Kyle Pitts 29.9 // Dallas Goedert 31.5

CLE Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Kareem Hunt 56.2% // Nick Chubb 52.5%
  • Target share: Hunt 11.8% // Chubb 2.9%
  • Attempts: Chubb 22 // Hunt 11
  • Red zone touches: Hunt 5 // Chubb 2
  • Hunt ($6,600) finished Week 1 ranked fifth in broken tackle % (per 4for4)
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary twice in 35 games as a Brown
  • Chubb ($7,100) finished Week 1 ranked sixth in Rush Yards Over Expected per Carry & ninth in Rush Expected Points Added per Carry
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary seven times in 45 games since 2019
  • NYJ ranked 32nd in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (sixth in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Joe Mixon 25.1 // Devin Singletary 25.2 // Alvin Kamara 27.5 // Christian McCaffrey 27.7 // Damien Harris 28.3 // Derrick Henry 28.7 // Jonathan Taylor 37