Kickoff Monday, Sep 19th 8:30pm Eastern

Vikings (
23.25) at
Eagles (
26.25)

Over/Under 49.5

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Notes

Key Matchups
Vikings Run D
12th DVOA/6th Yards allowed per carry
Eagles Run O
6th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Vikings Pass D
10th DVOA/4th Yards allowed per pass
Eagles Pass O
7th DVOA/11th Yards per pass
Eagles Run D
19th DVOA/21st Yards allowed per carry
Vikings Run O
27th DVOA/22nd Yards per carry
Eagles Pass D
28th DVOA/13th Yards allowed per pass
Vikings Pass O
21st DVOA/17th Yards per pass

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 2 comes to a close as the Vikings visit the Eagles. This one opened at 48 points but has been bet up to 50.5, which I think feels reasonable as the Eagles are an elite offense with A.J. Brown in town. Philly is even favored here by 2.5 (an unusual situation for the Eagles against a good team!). 

Philadelphia

We’ll start with the Eagles. Their backfield is a mess. They scored FOUR rushing touchdowns in Week 1, one by Jalen Hurts and then one from each of their three main running backs. Miles Sanders is the lead back here but that only netted him 15 opportunities last week, while Kenneth Gainwell played 30% of the snaps and saw nine opportunities, and Boston Scott played 18% of the snaps and saw four opportunities. Sanders is the lead guy here, clearly, but $8k is a steep price to pay for a back who will rarely if ever hit 20+ touches this season, and who will get vultured by the other running backs and his quarterback. Gainwell at $5k and Scott at $2.8k are not exactly bargains, either. They’re all in play for tournaments because any of them can score touchdowns, but my overall reaction to this backfield is “yikes.” I’ll play some of them, but I want to be lower than the field (or at least lower than I expect the field to be). 

Showdown Ownership Projections!

Ownership updates automatically

In the passing game, Brown wasted no time establishing his dominance, catching 10 of 13 passes (on just 32 Hurts pass attempts). That’s a 40% target share, folks, and while I don’t think it will remain that high all year, it’s clear that Hurts trusts Brown and that he’s going to be the dominant receiver in this offense. Justin Jefferson is also on this slate, which introduces some difficult choices. Jefferson is going to project better (and should), but he’s likely going to come with quite a bit more ownership, leaving Brown potentially underowned relative to his upside. Brown’s enormous Week 1 left scraps for everyone else, which resulted in significant price drops for Dallas Goedert and DeVonta Smith, to $5,800 and $5,200 respectively. Both were on the field for over 90% of the snaps and both are good-to-great players, and at those prices, they’re spots I want to be overweight the field on. The receiving corps rounds out with Quez Watkins, Zach Pascal, Jack Stoll, and Noah Togiai, who are basically all just tourney dart throws.

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OVERVIEW

  • Third highest game total in Week 2
  • PHI’s implied total of 25.75 is the seventh highest
  • MIN ranked ninth in fewest seconds per snap last season (27th after Week 1)
  • PHI ranked 13th in fewest seconds per snap last season (fourth after Week 1)
  • Both teams finished in the top half of ppg on offense
  • On defense, both teams finished in the top half of most offensive plays allowed (MIN was second)
  • They were also both in the top half of most offensive ppg allowed

Kirk Cousins

  • Cousins (CPT $14,700/FLEX $9,800) finished Week 1 ranked seventh in Pass EPA/play, ninth in Completion Percentage Over Expected, & third in Adj. YPA (per 4for4’s NFL Player Stat Explorer)
  • He ranked 2nd in PFF passing grade in Week 1
  • In 11 career Monday games, he’s never scored 30 DK pts
  • The last time he scored 20 DK pts on Monday was in 2017 (zero 20 pt games out of five appearances since then)
  • Out of 34 career road games as a Viking, he’s scored 25+ DK pts seven times
  • PHI ranked fifth in DK ppg allowed to QBs last year (15th after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Trevor Siemian 26.16 // Dak Prescott 31.8 // Patrick Mahomes 32.72 // Justin Herbert 34.64

MIN Passing Attack

  • After Week 1, PFF ranks the MIN offensive line at 14th
  • Week 1 snap share: Adam Thielen 95.2% // Justin Jefferson 91.9% // K.J. Osborn 67.7% // Johnny Mundt 64.5% // Irv Smith 30.6%
  • Target share: Jefferson 34.4% // Thielen 12.5% // Osborn 12.5% // Mundt 9.4% // Smith 6.2%
  • New Head Coach Kevin O’Connell utilized 11 personnel at the highest rate in the league en route to a Super Bowl victory last year as the LAR Offensive Coordinator
  • Jefferson (CPT $19,500/FLEX $13,000) led the team in target share last year with 27.6%
  • He finished Week 1 ranked sixth in target share, tied for fifth in end zone target share, second in air yard share, third in WOPR, first in Yards Per Route Run, & eighth in Targets Per Route Run (per 4for4)
  • In 34 career games, he’s averaging 20.29 DK ppg
  • His Week 1 game log: 9/11:184:2 for 42.4 DK pts
  • Thielen (CPT $10,800/FLEX $7,200) was second in target share on the team last season (15.7%)
  • Since Jefferson joined the team, Thielen has averaged 16.29 DK ppg (in 29 games)
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts 11 times in that span
  • Osborn (CPT $6,900/FLEX $4,600) was fourth in team target share last year (13.6%)
  • He has four games of 15+ DK pts out of 17 career games (9.58 DK ppg)
  • PHI ranked second in DK ppg allowed to WRs last year (22nd after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: Keenan Allen 25.4 // Mike Evans 29.7 // Cedrick Wilson 31.9 // Tyreek Hill 50.6
  • Mundt (FLEX $2,000) presumably outworked Smith due to the latter’s injury recovery
  • Mundt’s Week 1 game line: 3/3:17 for 4.7 DK pts
  • Smith (CPT $6,600/FLEX $4,400) Week 1 line: 0/2:0
  • He averages 6.36 DK ppg in 29 appearances (seven games with double digits)
  • PHI ranked 31st in DK app allowed to TEs last year (10th after Week 1)
  • 16 instances of an opposing TE scoring double digit DK pts vs. PHI since 2021

MIN Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Dalvin Cook 77.4% // Alexander Mattison 22.6%
  • Target share/targets: Cook 15.6%/5
  • Attempts: Cook 20 // Mattison 8
  • Redzone attempts: Mattison 2 // Cook 1
  • Last year’s snap share: Cook 53.3% // Mattison 33%
  • Cook (CPT $16,500/FLEX $11,000) finished Week 1 ranked seventh in carry share (per 4for4)
  • After averaging 20+ DK ppg in 2019 & 2020, Cook’s average fell to 15.9 last year (per the Fantasy Labs Trends tool)
  • He has 17 games of 25+ DK pts out of 44 (since 2019)
  • Mattison (CPT $6,300/FLEX $4,200) finished Week 1 ranked second in Broken Tackle % & 14th in Yards After Contact per Carry
  • Mattison has scored double digit DK pts just three times with Cook active
  • PHI ranked 22nd in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (31st after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: Ezekiel Elliott 26.6 // D’Andre Swift 29.5 (in Week 1) // Leonard Fournette 30.7

Jalen Hurts

  • Hurts (CPT $17,400/FLEX $11,600) finished Week 1 ranked fourth in Pass EPA/play (per 4for4)
  • He ranked 3rd in PFF passing grade in Week 1
  • In 24 career games, he’s averaged 23.47 DK ppg (including two 30+ performances and one 40+ performance)
  • His 9.3 rushing attempts last season ranked second behind Lamar Jackson’s 11.1
  • Hurts’s Week 1 line: 18/32:243 passing & 17:90:1 rushing
  • MIN ranked 28th in DK ppg allowed to QBs last year (first after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing QB scores since 2021: Ben Roethlisberger 28.82 // Lamar Jackson 35.64 // Aaron Rodgers 36.5 // Kyler Murray 38.1

PHI Passing Attack

  • The PHI offensive line remained atop PFF’s rankings after Week 1
  • Week 1 snap share: DeVonta Smith 96.1% // Dallas Goedert 92.2% // A.J. Brown 87% // Quez Watkins 53.2%
  • Target share: Brown 40.6% // Goedert 12.5% // Smith 12.5%
  • Targets: Brown 13 // Goedert 4 // Smith 4
  • Brown (CPT $15,600/FLEX $10,400) finished Week 1 ranked second in target share, first in air yard share, first in WOPR, fourth in YPRR, & eighth in TPRR (per 4for4)
  • In 49 career games, he’s scored 20+ DK pts 18 times (including six 30+ scores)
  • His Week 1 line: 10/13:155 for 28.5 DK pts
  • Smith (CPT $7,800/FLEX $5,200) averaged 11.6 DK ppg last season
  • His three best scores: 22.2 // 22.6 // 25.6
  • Smith’s Week 1 line: 0/4:0
  • Watkins (FLEX $3,200) has just two double digit DK scores (and zero 20+) in his career
  • MIN ranked 32nd in DK ppg allowed to WRs last year (fourth after Week 1)
  • There were 13 instances of an opposing WR scoring 20+ DK pts vs. MIN last year
  • Goedert (CPT $8,700/FLEX $5,800) has scored double digit DK pts nine times since 2021 (including one 20+ pt game & a 30 pt effort)
  • Last season, he ranked 10th in target share, 12th in air yard share, 11th in WOPR, & 9th in YPRR among all TEs (per 4for4)
  • MIN ranked 10th in DK ppg allowed to TEs last year (24th after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Gerald Everett 10.4 // Pat Freiermuth 11.2 // Josiah Deguara 11.7 // Cole Kmet 13.1 // T.J. Hockenson 14.9 // Maxx Williams 16.4

PHI Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Miles Sanders 51.9% // Kenneth Gainwell 29.9% // Boston Scott 18.2%
  • Target share: Gainwell 12.5% // Sanders 6.2%
  • Targets: Gainwell 4 // Sanders 2
  • Attempts: Sanders 13 // Gainwell 5 // Scott 4
  • Red zone attempts: Jalen Hurts 4 // Sanders 3 // Gainwell 2 // Scott 1
  • Sanders (CPT $12,000/FLEX $8,000) finished Week 1 ranked fourth in Rush Yards Over Expected per Carry, fifth in Rush EPA/Carry, 11th in Broken Tackle %, fifth in Yards After Contact per Carry, & 15th in High Value Touch % (per 4for4)
  • His notable DK scores since 2021: 17.3 // 18.5 // 19.6 // 20.2
  • Sanders has no other scores over 15 DK pts, and only one other double digit performance
  • Gainwell (FLEX $5,000) finished Week 1 ranked fifth in High Value Touch %
  • He’s scored 15+ DK pts five times since 2021
  • Gainwell has just two other double digit DK scores
  • Scott (FLEX $2,800) has just five double digit DK scores since 2021, with ceiling scores of 18 & 24.6 DK pts
  • MIN ranked 23rd in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (29th after Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores since 2021: AJ Dillon 20.1 // Dillon 22.3 // D’Andre Swift 22.4 // Sony Michel 23.5 // Najee Harris 25.4 // Joe Mixon 28 // Elijah Mitchell 30.8