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Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The field is likely to have a lot of certainties about this game, considering the different things these two teams showed us in Week 1.
• The certainties I find from these two teams are simply this – the Lions play fast and like to run the football, and the Commanders have a head coach and offensive designer that weigh opponents heavily in their weekly game plan.
• D’Andre Swift got his ankle rolled up on early in Week 1 and missed practice to start the week – monitor this situation closely as the team elevated Justin Jackson from the practice squad on Wednesday.
• Wide range of outcomes from the game environment itself, likely dependent on the health of Swift and the Detroit offensive line, but a likely narrow distribution of workload based on individual team design.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

The Commanders shocked the football world with their offensive game plan to start the season, coming out (and remaining) aggressive through the air with a new quarterback and new pass-catchers. Their Week 1 pass rate over expectation landed at number four in the league, behind only Miami, Kansas City, and Buffalo, and their pace of play landed in the top half of the league. The interesting part, to me, is the fact that Washington boasts a top 10 offensive line by all metrics, leading me to believe the pass-heavy game plan for Week 1 was exactly that – a specific game plan tailored to the opponent. As such, I am a little hesitant to make any sweeping assertions based on the first game of the year for this team. Consider this, Washington ran 69 offensive plays in Week 1 but fed their running backs only 17 combined carries, the two primary running backs combined to see 11 of 41 Carson Wentz targets directed their way, and head coach Ron Rivera’s favorite offensive toy (Curtis Samuel) is healthy and a large part of the offensive game plan. Of those three major Week 1 trends, it is likeliest to me that the first two were very game plan specific based on the opponent, while the latter signals more of a trend considering the history between the two. Either way, the Lions pose a stiffer test than what the Commanders saw in Week 1 against the Jaguars. Consider me highly interested to see their offensive tendencies against a new opponent.

As brought out above, the running backs saw only 17 combined carries but 11 combined targets in Week 1. Those running backs were exclusively Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic, who played snap rates of 64% and 40% and saw running back opportunities of 22 (14 carries and eight targets) and six (three carries and three targets), respectively. Let’s say that again – Antonio Gibson saw eight (!!!) targets in Week 1 and was the undoubted lead back! Okay, I wanted to emphasize that because of all the stink that the man came out of camp with, again highlighting just how little we know to start the year (which is honestly amplified heading into Week 2 because we now have all these fresh, new biases to contend with from a one-game sample – which is also the reason I wrote the lead for the Commanders the way I did because this team is highly likely to have some sweeping assertions made about them by the industry and the field when the fact of the matter is we really don’t know how their offense will operate moving forward). Having said that, we can safely assume that Gibson is the 1A of this backfield, at least for as long as Brian Robinson remains out. The pure rushing matchup is a good one against a young defensive line and team that just allowed the Eagles to rush for 5.5 yards per carry last week.

Circling back to the Curtis Samuel piece, I would say with a high degree of confidence that his usage in Week 1 is likely to continue for as long as he remains healthy. Let’s look at the facts. Ron Rivera coached Samuel in Carolina, where he was utilized in a similar way to what we saw in Week 1 (somewhat of a Swiss Army knife, with carries, pre-snap motions, sweeps, the works). Rivera left Carolina and then sought out Samuel in free agency, bringing him over to Washington, who slapped him with a three-year, $34.5 million deal. Samuel then gets hurt and misses most of 2021, and the community forgets about their connection. Best Ball drafters forgot; I can guarantee that much. That said, his average depth of target in Week 1 was a paltry 1.4 yards, and he amassed a total of 14.0 air yards, which is laughably hard to do. He also was the clear WR3 from a snap rate perspective, handling only 71% of the offensive snaps. All of that to say, Curtis Samuel is someone we need to be aware of for how much schemed usage we can expect, but that schemed usage absolutely must be present due to the low aDOT and type of usage he’s seeing, meaning his utility is likely to depend on specific game plans and game environments – which we just got done exploring as potentially different this week compared to last. Terry McLaurin and rookie Jahan Dotson predictably led the way as far as snap rate goes (90% and 88%, respectively) but mustered only four and five targets, respectively. Again, chalk that up to a specific game plan. While the game plan regarding the rushing utilization and involvement is likely (in my mind) to change heading into Week 2, the heavy blitz rates (48.8% in Week 1, second highest in the league) the Lions showed us in Week 1 are likely to force another aerial attack based primarily on short and quick hits, meaning it might be another week where Samuel sees a spike in the schemed usage we talked about before. Logan Thomas made a surprising return to the lineup in Week 1 after suffering a devastating knee injury last season, immediately regaining the lead role. Look for John Bates to continue mixing in until Thomas is fully healthy.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::