Kickoff Sunday, Sep 18th 1:00pm Eastern

WFT (
24) at

Lions (
24)

Over/Under 48.0

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Notes

Key Matchups
Commanders Run D
6th DVOA/8th Yards allowed per carry
Lions Run O
4th DVOA/19th Yards per carry
Commanders Pass D
30th DVOA/29th Yards allowed per pass
Lions Pass O
12th DVOA/18th Yards per pass
Lions Run D
32nd DVOA/28th Yards allowed per carry
Commanders Run O
27th DVOA/12th Yards per carry
Lions Pass D
24th DVOA/24th Yards allowed per pass
Commanders Pass O
27th DVOA/21st Yards per pass

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • The field is likely to have a lot of certainties about this game, considering the different things these two teams showed us in Week 1.
  • The certainties I find from these two teams are simply this – the Lions play fast and like to run the football, and the Commanders have a head coach and offensive designer that weigh opponents heavily in their weekly game plan.
  • D’Andre Swift got his ankle rolled up on early in Week 1 and missed practice to start the week – monitor this situation closely as the team elevated Justin Jackson from the practice squad on Wednesday.
  • Wide range of outcomes from the game environment itself, likely dependent on the health of Swift and the Detroit offensive line, but a likely narrow distribution of workload based on individual team design.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

The Commanders shocked the football world with their offensive game plan to start the season, coming out (and remaining) aggressive through the air with a new quarterback and new pass-catchers. Their Week 1 pass rate over expectation landed at number four in the league, behind only Miami, Kansas City, and Buffalo, and their pace of play landed in the top half of the league. The interesting part, to me, is the fact that Washington boasts a top 10 offensive line by all metrics, leading me to believe the pass-heavy game plan for Week 1 was exactly that – a specific game plan tailored to the opponent. As such, I am a little hesitant to make any sweeping assertions based on the first game of the year for this team. Consider this, Washington ran 69 offensive plays in Week 1 but fed their running backs only 17 combined carries, the two primary running backs combined to see 11 of 41 Carson Wentz targets directed their way, and head coach Ron Rivera’s favorite offensive toy (Curtis Samuel) is healthy and a large part of the offensive game plan. Of those three major Week 1 trends, it is likeliest to me that the first two were very game plan specific based on the opponent, while the latter signals more of a trend considering the history between the two. Either way, the Lions pose a stiffer test than what the Commanders saw in Week 1 against the Jaguars. Consider me highly interested to see their offensive tendencies against a new opponent.

As brought out above, the running backs saw only 17 combined carries but 11 combined targets in Week 1. Those running backs were exclusively Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic, who played snap rates of 64% and 40% and saw running back opportunities of 22 (14 carries and eight targets) and six (three carries and three targets), respectively. Let’s say that again – Antonio Gibson saw eight (!!!) targets in Week 1 and was the undoubted lead back! Okay, I wanted to emphasize that because of all the stink that the man came out of camp with, again highlighting just how little we know to start the year (which is honestly amplified heading into Week 2 because we now have all these fresh, new biases to contend with from a one-game sample – which is also the reason I wrote the lead for the Commanders the way I did because this team is highly likely to have some sweeping assertions made about them by the industry and the field when the fact of the matter is we really don’t know how their offense will operate moving forward). Having said that, we can safely assume that Gibson is the 1A of this backfield, at least for as long as Brian Robinson remains out. The pure rushing matchup is a good one against a young defensive line and team that just allowed the Eagles to rush for 5.5 yards per carry last week.

Circling back to the Curtis Samuel piece, I would say with a high degree of confidence that his usage in Week 1 is likely to continue for as long as he remains healthy. Let’s look at the facts. Ron Rivera coached Samuel in Carolina, where he was utilized in a similar way to what we saw in Week 1 (somewhat of a Swiss Army knife, with carries, pre-snap motions, sweeps, the works). Rivera left Carolina and then sought out Samuel in free agency, bringing him over to Washington, who slapped him with a three-year, $34.5 million deal. Samuel then gets hurt and misses most of 2021, and the community forgets about their connection. Best Ball drafters forgot; I can guarantee that much. That said, his average depth of target in Week 1 was a paltry 1.4 yards, and he amassed a total of 14.0 air yards, which is laughably hard to do. He also was the clear WR3 from a snap rate perspective, handling only 71% of the offensive snaps. All of that to say, Curtis Samuel is someone we need to be aware of for how much schemed usage we can expect, but that schemed usage absolutely must be present due to the low aDOT and type of usage he’s seeing, meaning his utility is likely to depend on specific game plans and game environments – which we just got done exploring as potentially different this week compared to last. Terry McLaurin and rookie Jahan Dotson predictably led the way as far as snap rate goes (90% and 88%, respectively) but mustered only four and five targets, respectively. Again, chalk that up to a specific game plan. While the game plan regarding the rushing utilization and involvement is likely (in my mind) to change heading into Week 2, the heavy blitz rates (48.8% in Week 1, second highest in the league) the Lions showed us in Week 1 are likely to force another aerial attack based primarily on short and quick hits, meaning it might be another week where Samuel sees a spike in the schemed usage we talked about before. Logan Thomas made a surprising return to the lineup in Week 1 after suffering a devastating knee injury last season, immediately regaining the lead role. Look for John Bates to continue mixing in until Thomas is fully healthy.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

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By Alex88 >>

OVERVIEW

  • After increasing by 4.5 points since opening (largest increase, 4 pts of which went to DET’s side), this game is now the fifth highest game total in Week 2
  • DET’s implied total of 25.75 is 9th highest
  • Excluding the four teams that played overtime games in Week 1, both WAS & DET finished among the Top 8 teams in offensive plays & Top 10 in total offensive yardage (per Lineups.com)
  • DET finished 4th in fewest seconds per play, per TeamRankings.com
  • Both team’s Week 1 opponents finished Top 10 in the same metric
  • Both WAS & DET converted all of their red zone trips into TDs (2 & 4, respectively)

Carson Wentz

  • In Week 1, Wentz ($5,800 in Week 2) finished 8th in Pass Expected Points Added per Play, 12th in air yards, 22nd in ADoT, & 22nd in On-Target % (per 4for4’s excellent NFL Player Stat Explorer, created by Sam Hoppen)
  • Finished 3rd in DK pts (32.7)
  • DET allowed the 5th most pts to PHI’s Jalen Hurts in Week 1
  • Wentz’s Week 1 output was his first time hitting 30 pts in nearly two years
  • In 41 career games as a visiting QB, Wentz has never scored 22+ DK pts (which is less than 4x his Week 2 salary)

WAS Passing Attack

  • WAS offensive line is ranked 7th in Week 2, per PFF
  • Week 1 snap share: Terry McLaurin 89.6% // Jahan Dotson 88.3% // Curtis Samuel 71.4% // Logan Thomas 62.3%
  • Target share: Samuel 26.8% // Thomas 14.6% // Dotson 12.2% // McLaurin 9.8%
  • McLaurin ($6,600 Week 2 DK salary) finished last season with a 23.6% target share
  • His Week 1 ADoT ranked fifth highest among all WRs (per 4for4)
  • Scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary in eight out of 45 career games
  • Priced at just $3,400 in Week 1, Dotson scored 18 DK pts
  • His Week 2 salary is now $4,200
  • Samuel ($4,600 Week 2 DK salary) ranked 14th in targets per route run
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 salary eight times in 55 career games
  • Last year, DET ranked 21st in DK ppg allowed to WRs
  • Notable opposing WR scores since 2021: A.J. Brown 28.5 // DK Metcalf 30.9 // Deebo Samuel 35.9 // Justin Jefferson 38.6 // Cooper Kupp 40.6
  • Thomas ($3,400) has scored 15+ DK pts twice in the past two seasons
  • Notable opposing TE scores allowed by DET: Albert Okwuegbunam 15.1 // Josiah Deguara 15.6 // Mark Andrews 18.9 // Kyle Pitts 19.2

WAS Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: Antonio Gibson 63.6% // J.D. McKissic 40.3%
  • Target share: Gibson 19.5% // McKissic 7.3%
  • Attempts: Gibson 14 // McKissic 3
  • Per 4for4, Gibson ($6,200) ranked 12th among all RBs in % team carries, fifth in target share, second in air yard share, & third in WOPR
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary three times since 2020 (out of 30 games)
  • DET ranked 30th in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (27th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Nick Chubb 25.4 // David Montgomery 25.6 // Melvin Gordon 26.1 // Joe Mixon 26.3 // Alexander Mattison 30.3 // Rashaad Penny 35.5 // Aaron Jones 41.5

Jared Goff

  • 32nd in Success % (percentage of plays with a positive EPA), per 4for4
  • 11th in air yards & 13th in ADoT
  • Scored 25+ DK pts just once as DET’s QB
  • WAS held Trevor Lawrence to just 14.4 DK pts in Week 1
  • Last season they ranked dead last in DK ppg allowed to the position
  • Eight separate QBs scored 25+ DK pts vs. WAS last season

DET Passing Attack

  • DET offensive line is ranked 5th in Week 2, per PFF
  • Week 1 snap share: T.J. Hockenson 91.3% // Amon-Ra St. Brown 88.4% // DJ Chark 81.2%
  • Target share: Amon-Ra 32.4% // Chark 21.6% // Hockenson 18.9%
  • Goff targeted WRs at the second highest percentage in the league last week
  • After a dominating breakout performance down the stretch last season, Amon-Ra started 2022 by finishing 8th in target share among all WRs & 15th in WOPR (per 4for4)
  • His DK game log in his past seven games, in chronological order: 24.8 // 15.3 // 23.5 // 26 // 38.4 // 29.1 // 20.4
  • Amon-Ra’s $6,500 Week 2 DK salary is just $300 off his peak last season
  • Chark ($5,100) ranked 9th in air yard share, 11th in ADoT, & 17th in WOPR
  • He has five week-winning DK scores but none since the 2020 season (out of 41 games)
  • WAS ranked 29th in DK ppg allowed to WRs last year (25th in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing WR scores: Marquez Callaway 24.5 // Emmanuel Sanders 26.4
  • Hockenson ($4,700) tied for 7th in target share among all Week 1 TEs
  • He’s scored 4x his Week 2 salary four times in 40 games
  • WAS ranked 19th in DK ppg allowed to TEs
  • Notable opposing TE scores: Robert Tonyan 16.3 // Travis Kelce 17.9 // Dalton Schultz 22.2 // Dallas Goedert 23.5

DET Rushing Attack

  • Week 1 snap share: D’Andre Swift 66.7% // Jamaal Williams 33.3%
  • Target share: Swift 8.1% // Williams 5.4%
  • Attempts: Swift 15 // Williams 11
  • Touches: Swift 18:1 // Williams 12:2
  • Red zone touches/TDs: Williams 7:2 // Swift 2:1
  • Per 4for4, Swift ($7,000) ranked second in Rush Yards Over Expected per Carry among all RBs in Week 1 & second in YPC
  • His 29.5 DK pts were his second best result
  • Swift has scored 4x his Week 2 DK salary three times in 27 games, once per season so far
  • Williams ($5,400) ranked third in % of his team’s high value touches in Week 1 (per 4for4)
  • His 16 DK pts were his second best result as a Lion
  • He’s scored 20+ DK pts just once for DET (25 vs. SF in Week 1 2021)
  • WAS ranked 17th in DK ppg allowed to RBs last year (23rd in Week 1)
  • Notable opposing RB scores: Christian McCaffrey 24.9 // Alvin Kamara 29.2 // Cordarrelle Patterson 34.6