Welcome to ‘Best Ball Plus’ 2024!
Team Previews
HILOW’S BEST BALL COURSE(!)*
*free course for all BB+ members!
*free course for all BB+ members!
Published – 5/2/24
Something that is often discussed in weekly DFS theory and strategy is the “story” your lineup tells. Basically, the idea is to think about what the recap of the day would have to be for each particular lineup to have been the “right” combination of players that gets you to a first place finish on that slate. I like to do something similar when drafting Best Ball rosters, thinking about the “story” that the roster is telling about how the NFL season will play out with each pick.
At every selection in a draft, there are a variety of reasonable options available, and whatever choice you make also implies some things about the other players you passed on. Similar to price point or positional pivots on a regular DFS slate, we want to be aware of the scenario where your picks are “right.” While everyone understands team stacks and most of the industry is focusing on late season correlations and balancing exposures, very few are actively trying to leverage the decisions made for a particular roster with their later-round picks by using these indirect correlations. Below is a summary of a draft I did on Wednesday, May 1st in the Drafters Million III NFL Contest.
Drafters Scoring/Settings::
Pick 1.09 — AJ Brown, WR, PHI — Brown had six straight games with 125+ yards last season before the Eagles fell apart. He showed he could be a top-three type guy if they can keep it together.
Pick 2.04 — Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF — Decided to “reach” a bit on this one as WRs were going somewhat quickly and Aiyuk actually gives me a relatively unique pairing with AJB.
Pick 3.09 — DK Metcalf, WR, SEA — I am higher than most on Metcalf. Read my Team Preview on the Seahawks to get the full breakdown but I like the team’s offensive prospects under their new pass-oriented OC, and love the idea of Metcalf finally having a “ceiling” year where his physical talents are displayed.
Pick 4.04 — Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI — I don’t believe you have to stack your QB in Best Ball and specifically on Drafters. That being said, Hurts in the 4th round makes sense to me on a team that has AJ Brown. If Brown is putting up a top five WR type of season, then Hurts (with his insane rushing ability) is once again finishing top two or three at his position. At this point, I also decided to try to replicate my positional draft strategy from my team that took 7th place in this contest last year (started WR-WR-WR-QB)
Pick 5.09 — Amari Cooper, WR, CLE — Loading up at WR. Cooper fits perfectly on this roster as he tends to be very high variance and by having a lot of other high end WRs, I don’t necessarily have to count on him for weekly contributions.
Pick 6.04 — James Cook, RB, BUF — OK, I’ll bite on a running back. Cook was the RB11 in points per game through Week 15 last season and the Bills have removed two of their top weapons from that team (Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis). I believe Cook is a centerpiece for Buffalo this year and am happy getting him in the 60s.
Picks 7.09 — Aaron Jones, RB, MIN and 8.04 — Brock Bowers, TE, LVR — Again, I’m sticking with my “replicate last year’s team” theme. Last year’s team was carried in large part by Alvin Kamara as a veteran RB who people were writing off. In this same range, I also got a talented rookie in Sam LaPorta. Jones and Bowers fit those molds perfectly.
Pick 9.09 — Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA — I’ve already made the bet on Metcalf having a big year. If that happens, the Seattle passing game is likely clicking. Lockett is my WR5 on this team and his spiked week potential and starting a “team stack” for me is too good to pass up here.
Pick 10.04 — Austin Ekeler, RB, WAS — I love getting him at this pick as my RB3. He played most of last season injured and I think the Washington offense could be sneaky good with Daniels at QB.
