The Scroll Best Ball Plus

Welcome to ‘Best Ball Plus’ 2024!

---

Team Previews

---

You can find summary notes of the podcasts here.

HILOW’S BEST BALL COURSE(!)*

*free course for all BB+ members!

Rankings by: HILOW

Last Updated: 8/29/24

Rankings by: Mike Johnson

Last Updated: 9/4/24

Rankings by: Mike Johnson

Last Updated: 9/4/24

Instructions:

1. From a desktop PC, Log in to Drafters and Navigate to “Player Exposures” on the drop down menu

2. Select “Email Pick Data CSV” in the top right corner

3. Navigate to your emails and download the data

4. Open the CSV/Excel from Drafters.

5. On a second tab/monitor/screen also open the Blank “Drafters Tracking” Spreadsheet

6. On the “pick-data” download from Drafters, delete column E (pick number), as well as columns H (team) through M (rank). 

7. In the pick-data spreadsheet, select cells A1 through F1 and click the “Filter” functionality in Excel.

8. In the pick data sheet, navigate to column D, and select only Round 1

9. Copy and paste the data in columns A thru C on the “pick-data” spreadsheet to the blank drafters tracking spreadsheet, beginning in cell A2 (to avoid pasting over the column headers in row 1).

10. Then copy/paste the data now populated in column E into column D (Round 1) on the Drafters Tracking sheet. 

11. Navigate back to the pick-data sheet, and update column D to now be sorted by Round 2. 

12. Follow the same step as above and paste this data into Column E (Round 2) 

13. Complete this same step for sorting by round 3 and pasting the data in Column F (Round 3) on the Drafters tracking spreadsheet.

14. Now, is when the process gets more manual. Back on the Pick-Data CSV, choose ‘Select All’ in the sorting of Column D. This should now show a lot of data.

15. We will now sort Column F (Position) to only sort by QB.

16. Since everyone drafts a QB in different rounds each draft, you will have to manually add the corresponding highest drafted QB for each draft to the Drafters Tracking Spreadsheet.

17. Repeat steps 15 & 16, sorted for TE and manually populate the spreadsheet.

18. Doing this for 200 rosters took me about an hour, so while it is manual/painful, it’s doable.

The payoff:

In your ensuing drafts, you can easily now sort by the player you select in the first round, and it will populate the first 3 picks, QB and TE of your different previously drafted combos. This will help you from continuing to draft very similar teams over and over. 

Finally, now that the data is populated into your spreadsheet, you want to manually continued to update as you continue to draft more teams

Lastly – Hope to see you and your OWS avatar at the top of a Drafters leaderboard come December! 

by mike johnson >>

While our main focus here at One Week Season is on the elements of game theory and a deep understanding of our contests and competition, there is no question that player selection is an absolutely critical part of being successful in Best Ball. With that in mind, and with three months of drafting done since the NFL Draft concluded and the major contests were released, I put together this article outlining the three players at each position who I find myself drafting at a high rate and/or actively thinking about getting on my roster in optimal ways while I am drafting. Said another way, rankings are one thing, but when you are actually on the clock to make a selection, there is often a “gravity” towards certain players that causes you to reach for them ahead of not only their ADP but also where you have them ranked….or in other scenarios, they may fall in a draft and you abandon your previous strategy for that draft in order to roster them at a discount. 

As we head into the heart of drafting season, these are the guys that I have the most conviction about and believe in with great confidence relative to where the field is valuing them. 

Quarterback

Caleb Williams, CHI: This is a player who enters the league with one of the more impressive skill sets we have ever seen from a rookie QB. He has been touted for years and produced at an elite level in college. Now he enters perhaps the best situation a high-end rookie QB has ever walked into with two stud veteran WRs, a talented and high-pedigree rookie WR, a solid stable of tight ends, and a deep RB corps. This combination of elite talent and elite situation could very easily lead to the best rookie QB season we have ever witnessed. Being drafted in the 8th-11th round depending on the site/format, I believe Williams will be a top-6 QB in 2025.

Trevor Lawrence, JAX: Speaking of a young and highly talented QB, Lawrence took a bit of a step back in 2023 after having a dynamic sophomore season. This year, the Jaguars added Brian Thomas, Jr. and Gabe Davis to their receiving corps, giving Lawrence a stable of pass catchers that complement each other better and setting him up for potentially his best season yet. The AFC South should be more competitive than in recent years, and Houston, Indianapolis, and Tennessee all have ascending offenses – which could lead to more high-scoring games for the Jaguars.

Will Levis, TEN: Levis has a lot of tools that made him an intriguing prospect coming out of college. He wasn’t dominant by any means in his rookie season in 2023, but with the previous regime’s slow-moving and run-based scheme, he still did enough to catch my eye. This year, he has a terrific corps of skill players and a huge upgrade in coaching/play-calling.  Levis is by far my favorite late-round QB target, and a top-12 season would not surprise me in the slightest.

Running Back

Hilow and Mike Johnson go team-by-team, exploring what we can expect in 2024:

• Bull Case
• Bear Case
• Expectations // Takeaways
• Coaching Philosophy // Personnel Changes // Schedule

NFC EAST

NFC NORTH

NFC SOUTH

NFC WEST

AFC EAST

AFC NORTH

AFC SOUTH

AFC WEST

STORYBOARD #7(DRAFTERS)

STORYBOARD#6 (UD)

STORYBOARD #5(DRAFTERS)

STORYBOARD #4(DRAFTERS)

STORYBOARD #3(DK)

STORYBOARD #2(DK)

STORYBOARD #1(DRAFTERS)

When I was in high school (dating myself here), there was a rapper named “Chingy” who had a few hits but was not one of the “elite” rappers. He wasn’t that good but his songs had catchy choruses and usually had a few good one-liners. It became a bit of a running joke with my friends and me that he was my “favorite” rapper, and I would often sing/quote his songs when we were hanging out. One of those songs was called “One Call Away.” The premise of the song was that he (Chingy) was there waiting, and all it would take was one call from whoever the lucky lady was to who he was singing to, for all their hopes and dreams to come true together. 

As I worked on this article, that song came to my mind and seemed like a perfect fit for what we are looking for at this point in the drafting season. Closing Line Value (CLV) is a concept that is often discussed in Best Ball and is especially popular as a talking point at this point in the season. The concept is that there is a lot of value in a player with a certain ADP right now which rises as we get into August, giving you an advantage over teams that take him earlier. You can tell a story for literally any player having a spike in value by saying “What if . . . (fill in the blank) tears his ACL in camp?” or any other situation that is possible but unpredictable. That being said, there are certain situations that are FAR more volatile at this point in the offseason than others, and these are the players who are “One Call Away” from a big spike in value, and it is a call that is conceivably very realistic, and possibly even somewhat predictable. Specifically, we are looking for situations that we already know have developments brewing in the background (not just, “What if this other guy gets hurt?”) With that said, here are the players that I see fitting that mold and the stories that could propel them up the draft boards at a moment’s notice over the next two months:

Jerome Ford and D’Onta Foreman, RB, CLE

Nick Chubb’s knee exploded on national television last September. He is a freak athlete and an incredible player, but this injury required multiple surgeries, the last of which took place in November. He just started running on land at the end of April and is in the last year of his contract. In the best-case scenario, Chubb is likely to start the year slowly or even on the PUP list (out at least six weeks). In the worst-case scenario, Chubb may never recover and be a threat again, or at least not this season. Either way, Ford and Foreman are likely to lead a Browns backfield that should be productive. Ford is currently being drafted in the 11th round and Foreman is around pick 200. If/when news on Chubb’s availability becomes official and we get word on the pecking order of the Browns backfield, I would expect both of these guys to see big jumps in value with Ford landing around the 8th or 9th round (around guys like Zack Moss, Jaylen Warren, James Conner) and Foreman to jump up to the 150-160 range.

George Kittle and Ricky Pearsall, TE and WR, SF

In our Best Ball+ product we give you rankings, analysis, theory, and much more. Most of that revolves around how and why we do things a certain way within our drafts. A question that seems to come up frequently is, “How many teams should I be drafting right now?” The answer is basically . . . it depends. Obviously, that’s not the answer people are looking for and it isn’t very helpful but it is hard to get too deep into the weeds during a Twitter or Discord conversation. Even in an audio or video podcast training session, it feels like a topic that is hard to properly evaluate. As such, I decided to write this piece to give you an idea of the ways that I go about drafting my Best Ball teams in terms of:

• What: Which tournaments on each site am I going to play?
• How: Fast drafts or slow? (and why?)
• When: When during the draft window (from the NFL Draft until the NFL season kicks off) am I drafting on specific sites, and in what contests?

Hopefully, by doing this, you can understand my thought process and approach based on my goals and allocated bankroll. Then, you can figure out your own goals and bankroll and tailor your approach in the best way possible to achieve your goals and keep your sanity. In my opinion, managing the time that drafting takes and keeping a wrap on your bankroll are the most challenging parts of playing Best Ball at a high level. It’s a lot of money to have tied up for several months, so I try to make sure I am calculated and cost-efficient in my approach by not making myself feel rushed late in the draft window and keeping myself from going in too deep, too early in the summer.

DRAFTERS

What: 

• I will max enter their $15 flagship tournament, “Drafters Million III NFL Best Ball Championship,” and I will also max enter their $2 “Mini” tournament. 
• If they create other tournaments, I will consider them depending on price point and release date.

How: 

• To complete 300 drafts, I’m putting in a lot of work. I’m consistently drafting throughout the draft window but not forcing it. I pay attention to any “Bonus” promotions they do and will take advantage of those as much as I can. For instance, they’ll sometimes do a “draft 5 teams this weekend and we will give you a free ticket for 1 team” promo or something like that. Last year, they also had monthly challenges in June and July. There is also an aspect of time that must be considered. I don’t want to do all of my drafts before August, but I also don’t want to get to August and need to force in 120 drafts in each contest. Last year, I had about 70 drafts completed in the “Million” and about 100 completed in the “Mini” by the first week in August. Like I said, I didn’t force it and somewhat let their promotions direct me. They had a June challenge where you got 2 tickets if you completed 25+ drafts during the month. I think I did around 30 in that month. They also had a July challenge where you were rewarded tickets based on how long of a “streak” you could have of drafting teams. The highest reward was 5 tickets for drafting 30 days in a row. They also had several “weekend challenges” where you got a free ticket for every 3 or 5 drafts you completed. Completing those “challenges” significantly improves your expected value as those free entries reduce your cost per entry.

• I also do a lot of slow drafts on Drafters to help me get my volume in. My approach to this last year was to almost always have between 12 and 20 slow drafts going at once. I do this for both contests, and the number that I have going is combined between the two. I start by entering a couple of slow drafts in one of the tournaments. Then, the next day I will enter a couple of slow drafts in the other tournament. I’ll continue this for a few days until I get a good number going and then just let it go. It probably sounds like a lot, but if you’ve got 10 to 15 minutes to check the site two or three times per day it’s not that tough. Usually, when you check, you will have two to five drafts that you are on the clock to pick or you are coming up within a couple of picks. When I check, I make my picks for the drafts I am up, and I will click on the drafts that I am within five picks of, so I can look at my team to that point, and what the draft looks like, so I can queue up guys who I’d want when I get up. That way when it does get to be my turn, I already have a good idea of what I want to do and can make the pick relatively quickly. Also, if for some reason I can’t get back to the site for my pick, then at least I know the pick will be roughly what I would have wanted it to be rather than a straight auto-draft.

• Eventually, drafts will begin to conclude. Every draft room is different, but the drafts generally take anywhere from 10 to 21 days to complete. For example, my team that took seventh last year began drafting on August 18th and finished on September 4th . . . about 17 days. After my initial wave of slow drafts, I try to enter new slow drafts when I finish one. This keeps my flow of drafts relatively steady, and when trying to do 300 drafts over four months, this is a critical part of the process. The “time suck” of drafting is very real and having a good system and routine for slow drafts helps you keep your sanity and stay sharp. I don’t know the exact numbers, but I would guess I did around 100 “slow drafts” last year out of my 300 total drafts. The clock is eight hours so honestly, if you check in the morning while you eat, take a quick look around lunchtime, and check before you go to bed, you can do it effectively and efficiently while only taking five to ten minutes at each turn to catch up on several drafts at once.

When: 

• My general target is to have around 25 drafts done in each contest by the end of May, another 25 done by the end of June, and another 25 done by the end of July. This will leave me with 75 drafts for each contest to complete from August 1 until the season kicks off on September 5th.

UNDERDOG

What: