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Storyboard #2 (DK)

Written by Mike Johnson

Published – 5/17/24

Something that is often discussed in weekly DFS theory and strategy is the “story” your lineup tells. Basically, the idea is to think about what the recap of the day would have to be for each particular lineup to have been the “right” combination of players that gets you to a first place finish on that slate. I like to do something similar when drafting Best Ball rosters, thinking about the “story” that the roster is telling about how the NFL season will play out with each pick. 

At every selection in a draft, there are a variety of reasonable options available, and whatever choice you make also implies some things about the other players you passed on. Similar to price point or positional pivots on a regular DFS slate, we want to be aware of the scenario where your picks are “right.” While everyone understands team stacks and most of the industry is focusing on late season correlations and balancing exposures, very few are actively trying to leverage the decisions made for a particular roster with their later-round picks by using these indirect correlations. Below is a summary of a draft I did on Wednesday, May 15th in the Draftkings NFL Best Ball $15M Millionaire:

Picking from 12th slot

Picks 1.12 and 2.01 — AJ Brown, WR, PHI and Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ — Man, I wish this was on Drafters. After the top-5 WRs are gone, Brown and Wilson might be the guys I think have the best chances of ending the season as a top-3 player at the position. Wilson is an elite talent who should finally have good QB play while Brown is also an elite talent who went on a crazy six week run last year. Anyways, starting with those two together has been hard for me to find but I could see that being this year’s version of the “Lamb/ARSB” combo from the 1/2 turn in 2023.

Picks 3.12 and 4.01 — Devonta Smith, WR and Jalen Hurts, QB (PHI) — If this was a Drafters draft, I would have taken Cooper Kupp and DK Metcalf here. But on DraftKings, I’m going to get the full Eagles passing game stack on one team.

In 2023, the trio of AJB // Smith // Hurts combined for 60+ points in 7 of 16 games with DraftKings scoring last year with three games of 80+ points.

In 2022, the trio combined for 60+ points in 6 of 15 games with 4 games of 80+.

This is an elite team stack to get in playoff style formats.

Picks 5.12 and 6.01 — Jayden Reed, WR, GB and Kyle Pitts, TE, ATL — Taking a bit of a risk on young guys to take a big step forward this year. Probably take one more WR at the next turn and then pound RB for a few rounds.

Picks 7.12 and 8.01 — D’Andre Swift, RB, CHI and Jake Ferguson, TE, DAL — Swift is a player I am extremely high on this year, so getting him this late as my RB1 fits perfectly on this squad. I decided to take Ferguson instead of a WR for two reasons:

  1.  DeAndre Hopkins was the last WR in a tier for me and he has the same bye week as the Eagles. When I take Hopkins (or Calvin Ridley), I try to stack Levis with them. Given the bye week situation and the fact that I don’t want to take a third QB on a Hurts roster, I decided to avoid Hopkins.
  2. I felt like the RBs I would get at the next turn would be similar to the ones I would take here, so I opted for Ferguson who plays the Eagles in Week 17. Ferguson dropped a 37-point game in the playoffs last year, so his ceiling along with the Eagles stack is #VeryNice

Picks 9.12 and 10.01 — Austin Ekeler, RB, WAS and Tyjae Spears, RB, TEN — Just loading up at RB now. Ekeler plays the Eagles in Week 16, but that’s not “why” I took him. Wouldn’t be surprised if he has one more good year in him and Spears is an explosive young player on an underrated offense who will likely be top 5 in my RB exposures when it’s all said and done.

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