AFC NORTH

Written by :: HILOW

Cleveland Browns

Coaching/Philosophy/Scheme Changes ::

• Offense: HC Kevin Stefanski returns for his fifth season in Cleveland, and this year, he’ll operate with a new offensive coordinator in Ken Dorsey.
• Defense: DC Jim Schwartz returns for his second season in Cleveland.
• Run-balanced offensive design should remain moving forward, built behind an elite offensive line.

Personnel Changes ::

• Say what you will about the top brass in Cleveland, but they have put their money where their collective mouths are over the previous two offseasons.
• Acquired WR Jerry Jeudy in a trade with the Broncos.
• Upgraded the linebacker unit with the additions of Jordan Hicks and Devin Bush.
• Have maintained one of the top offensive lines in all of football land with Jedrick Wills, Joel Bitonio, Ethan Pocic, Wyatt Teller, and Jack Conklin.
• Replaced the departing Joe Flacco with another capable veteran in Jameis Winston.
• Lost RB Kareem Hunt and TE Harrison Bryant after failing to renew their contracts.
• Added depth in the backfield via the additions of Nyheim Hines and D’Onta Foreman.

Schedule ::

• Divisional Games (6) ::
  • Bengals x2, Ravens x2, Steelers x2
• AFC West (4) ::
  • @Broncos, @Raiders, Chiefs, Chargers
• NFC East (4) ::
  • @Eagles, @Commanders, Giants, Cowboys
• Other (3)::
  • @Jaguars, @Saints, Dolphins

Bull Case ::

An extremely difficult adjusted strength of schedule (30^th, per Sharp Football Analysis) should leave the Browns needing to keep their proverbial foot on the gas in 2024. The addition of Jeudy two years after adding Amari Cooper gives quarterback Deshaun Watson the best assembly of weapons of his career behind the best offensive line of his career, with Cooper and Jeudy joined by Elijah Moore, David Njoku, and (eventually) Nick Chubb (likely to be some combination of Jerome Ford and Foreman to begin the season). The improvements to the linebacker unit this offseason also gives the Browns the best on-paper defense they have had over the previous decade. From top to bottom, this roster is built to win now.

The Browns dealt with a slew of key season-ending injuries in the 2023 season, including Watson, Chubb, Conklin, and Wills. Watson and both tackles are expected to be ready for the start of the 2024 season, while Chubb should return at some point. Ford proved he can handle the load left behind by Chubb while the latter returns to health.

Bear Case ::

Watson (0.45) was vastly outperformed by both Jeff Driskel (0.50) and Flacco (0.52) from a fantasy-points-per-dropback standpoint in 2023 and never fully settled into Stefanski and Van Pelt’s offense before being lost for the season following Week 9. Even playing for a team built off of the run, this team is going to go as Watson goes – and it hasn’t necessarily been pretty thus far in Cleveland with Watson under center. He accounted for multiple touchdowns in just three of six games in 2023, threw seven touchdowns to four interceptions, and had a lower passer rating than Easton Stick, Nick Mullens, Sam Darnold and Jarrett Stidham.

Chubb suffered a catastrophic knee injury in Week 2 of the 2023 season, an injury that required multiple surgeries to repair his MCL, meniscus and ACL. This occurred in the same name that he previously blew out in college, suffering a dislocated knee and torn ACL, MCL, and PCL ligaments. He underwent surgery on September 29 to repair the MCL and meniscus and required an additional surgery in November to repair the ACL from his most recent injury. Chubb enters the 2024 season on a one-year contract before becoming an unrestricted free agent. He is highly unlikely to be fully healthy before the start of the 2024 season, likely leaving some combination of Ford, Foreman and Hines to carry the load until he is ready.

Expectations/Takeaways ::

Watson is currently the 22^nd QB off the board in early best ball drafts, behind Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, Jayden Daniels, Aaron Rodgers and Baker Mayfield. I have Watson ranked above all six. Watson was dealt a slew of issues to overcome in his first season in Cleveland, including off-the-field distractions, injuries and key injuries to his supporting cast. Assuming the health of Watson and his offensive line, he is set up to destroy his current ADP while playing with the top supporting cast of his professional career. I’m buying the uncertainty all day here.

You can currently pair Chubb (RB32 per ADP) and Ford (RB42 per ADP) for less than a trip to McDonalds. Ford saw 267 running back opportunities in relief of Chubb a season ago, all the while sharing primary duties with Hunt. Hunt (and his nine touchdowns) is no longer with the team. Buy.

Cooper finished as the WR18 in fantasy points per game in 2023 and is currently being drafted as the 29^th wide receiver off the board in early best ball drafts. The presence of Jeudy should theoretically open up the areas of the field where Cooper and tight end Njoku do most of their work. I’m more interested in buying Cooper and Njoku than I am buying into Jeudy in his new home.

TE10 feels like a fair price to pay for Njoku considering he ranked third in the league in targets at the tight end position in 2023 (123), saw an elite 24.7 percent TPRR (targets per route run), played the third-highest snap rate (87.0 percent) at the position, and led the league in yards after the catch at tight end (599). He’ll be on the field at a high clip and doesn’t clash with the other pass catchers on the roster as far as his area of operation (yes, low 4.6-yard aDOT a season ago).

August 2 update:

• WR Jerry Jeudy is dealing with a knee injury, RB D’Onta Foreman was airlifted from practice on Thursday after a neck injury (reports are that he avoided anything major), and WR Elijah Moore picked up a concussion in the first week of camp. That makes a lot of injuries to players we know are going to be involved in this offense, particularly when added to RB Nick Chubb’s presence on the PUP list.
• HC Kevin Stefanski will retain offensive play calling duties, but OC Ken Dorsey said he would like to instill a more up-tempo offense.
• The Browns are projected to be as mediocre as they come, ranking 18^th in projected points with team totals over 21 points in 14 games but zero games with a team total over 25 points and zero games with a game total over 48 points (one of only seven teams to have zero games with a game total over 48 points this year).

Pittsburgh Steelers

August 2 Update:

• Andre Iosivas appears to be grabbing hold of the starting slot receiver role for the Bengals. Whether or not that holds throughout the season remains to be seen, but even QB Joe Burrow recently lauded his efforts, saying “(Iosivas) is gonna have a big year.”
• RB Chase Brown has seen at least 50% of the running back opportunities with the first team offense in every camp practice so far. That is startling news. Brown is clearly the more explosive back, with his biggest shortcoming last season being that he was not trusted in pass protection (and Zack Moss is one of the better pass protectors in the league). That said, Brown was an excellent pass protector in college and that is an aspect of his game that can be taught/coached up. Brown has immense upside if he can assert control of the backfield. I was up to about 40% Zack Moss exposure through my first 250 or so drafts but cooled off substantially and have been force-feeding some Brown exposure recently, the reason being that this is likely to be a backfield that carries immense value this year.
• WR Ja’Marr Chase has been present but not participating through the early stages of camp as he seeks a contract extension (similar situation to Brandon Aiyuk in San Francisco, although Chase did not publicly request a trade). Something to simply monitor more than anything else.
• First-round rookie OT Amarius Mims was carted off the field on Thursday but returned to practice Friday. He reportedly was dealing with dehydration.
• TE Mike Gesicki has reportedly had a great connection with Burrow in camp.