Published – 8/10/2024
Something that is often discussed in weekly DFS theory and strategy is the “story” your lineup tells. Basically the idea is to think about what the recap of the day would have to be for each particular lineup to have been the “right” combination of players that gets you to a first-place finish on that slate. I like to do something similar when drafting Best Ball rosters, thinking about the “story” that the roster is telling about how the NFL season will play out with each pick that is made.
At every selection in a draft, there are a variety of reasonable options available, and whatever choice you make also implies some things about the other players you passed on. Similar to price point or positional pivots on a regular DFS slate, we want to be aware of the scenario where your picks are “right”. While everyone understands team stacks and most of the industry is focusing on late-season correlations and balancing exposures, very few are actively trying to leverage the decisions made for a particular roster with their later-round picks by using these indirect correlations.
Below is a summary of a draft I did on Wednesday, August 7th in the Drafters MILLION III Best Ball tournament with a $2.5M prize pool and $500k to First Place::
Drafters Scoring/Settings::
Pick 1.02 – Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA – Hill was the WR2 in 2023 despite dealing with some injury issues late in the season. Given Ceedee Lamb and Dak Prescott’s contract situations, Hill is now my top option in drafts. It isn’t that I expect Lamb and/or Dak to sit out actual games, but I fear that the offense does not click at its highest level and/or there is some level of dysfunction/distrust within the organization throughout the year. Also, especially in a cumulative scoring format, I fear that without a new contract, there is a greater risk of Lamb being extra conservative with any injuries he deals with during the year rather than pushing through them. I still think Lamb is likely to have a very good season, but there are enough concerns to make him quite risky at the top of the board in a cumulative scoring format.
Picks 2.11 and 3.02 – Chris Olave, WR, NO and Devonta Smith, WR, PHI – Olave spent much of the draft season with an ADP near the top of the second round. He has fallen now to the mid-to-late second and I’ll scoop the value here. As for Smith, I see six wide receivers with a strong chance to be this year’s overall WR1 and AJ Brown is one of those six. Obviously, this roster is betting on Tyreek taking that mantle, so adding Smith here is a bit of a “bet against” AJ Brown on some level.
Picks 4.11 and 5.02 – Tee Higgins, WR, CIN and Chris Godwin, WR, TB – Continuing with my trend of “betting against” other top-6 WRs, I took Higgins here as a bet against Ja’Marr Chase. Godwin is one of “My Guys” this season and I passed on Mike Evans twice at the 2/3 turn, so this selection is leaning into that decision a bit as well. I also like how Godwin “fits” on this roster, as he should be a target hog and have consistently usable weeks, whereas Smith and Higgins may have some “duds” while Brown and Chase are healthy.
Picks 6.11 and 7.02 – James Conner, RB, ARI and Jake Ferguson, TE, DAL – Anthony Richardson was available here about a full round past his ADP. I took Conner here as my RB1 because the person picking in the 12th slot (who had two picks between mine) already had Lamar Jackson on his roster. Jackson and Richardson have the same bye so it made no sense that he would take him…..but he did. Just kind of points to the unpredictability we find in drafts once we get into August and more casual people join. This is good for our overall EV but can be frustrating for an individual draft that you get thrown off in. With Richardson gone, I decided to “reach” a bit on Ferguson as I already had five WRs, the RBs available weren’t that different to me than those who will be available at the next turn, and Ferguson is another “bet” against Ceedee Lamb.
Picks 8.11 and 9.02 – Jordan Addison, WR, MIN and Tony Pollard, RB, TEN – Addison’s drop in draft position has been drastic, as he was a regular 6th-round pick early in the draft process. Everyone expects him to be suspended at some point this season, and many fear that the suspension will come at some point late in the year due to his October 7th arraignment. This is being held against him in playoff-style formats due to the fear of him missing the most important weeks (15 to 17) and that ADP shift is just copying over to Drafters. However, it shouldn’t be. He is a perfect fit on this roster as a “bet” against Justin Jefferson and the WR6 which means the roster can benefit from his spikes and survive his duds. Pollard is simply adding to the RB stable.
