Published – 6/16/24
Something that is often discussed in weekly DFS theory and strategy is the “story” your lineup tells. Basically, the idea is to think about what the recap of the day would have to be for each particular lineup to have been the “right” combination of players that gets you to a first place finish on that slate. I like to do something similar when drafting Best Ball rosters, thinking about the “story” that the roster is telling about how the NFL season will play out with each pick.
At every selection in a draft, there are a variety of reasonable options available, and whatever choice you make also implies some things about the other players you passed on. Similar to price point or positional pivots on a regular DFS slate, we want to be aware of the scenario where your picks are “right.” While everyone understands team stacks and most of the industry is focusing on late season correlations and balancing exposures, very few are actively trying to leverage the decisions made for a particular roster with their later-round picks by using these indirect correlations. Below is a summary of a draft I did on June 16th in the $15 Drafters Million III NFL Contest.
Drafters Scoring/Settings::
Pick 1.07 – AJ Brown, WR, PHI – I have come around recently to believe Brown is clearly in the top-7 along with the consensus top-5 WRs and CMC. This means I will have him on a lot of rosters, which I am fine with.
Pick 2.06 – Chris Olave, WR, NO – This is a pairing I tend to start a lot of drafts with, as I am higher than the market on Brown and lower than the market on the RBs being drafted in the second round. This results in Olave, Davante Adams, or Brandon Aiyuk often being paired on my rosters with Brown.
Pick 3.07 – DJ Moore, WR, CHI – Loading up on WRs here. I view Moore as someone who should be at the 2/3 turn and has upside for another top-8 to top-10 season so I am always going to pounce anytime he falls this late.
Pick 4.06 – Marquise Brown, WR, KC – Brown has been rising in ADP and on my draft board recently. I am high on the Chiefs offense in general and believe he could thrive in that system with Mahomes throwing to him. I do like him best on rosters that start WR-heavy like this one.
Pick 5.07 – Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC – Mahomes allows me to fill my “QB Silo” relatively early, which means I can save a roster spot by selecting only two total QBs. I think he has a terrific chance at finishing as QB1 so on this roster that story allows me to wait on QBs through all the middle rounds while I solidify my RB silos.
Pick 6.06 – Joe Mixon, RB, HOU – Mixon is a perfect fit for this type of build and is going about one to two rounds later than I believe he should be. He has a three-down skillset in a good offense. He should accumulate points weekly and has the upside to post a big number any given week.
Pick 7.07 – George Kittle, TE, SF – Kittle is another guy with a somewhat head-scratching ADP as he has finished as a top-5 TE each of the last two seasons. The 49ers offense continues to hum and there are rumors one of their WRs could be traded before Week 1 yet Kittle is going at pick 79 here as the TE8. Now that I have Kittle and Mahomes filling my QB and TE “Silos,” I can wait to draft those positions until late in the draft and just hammer RB and WR for the next seven or eight rounds.
Pick 8.06 – Najee Harris, RB, PIT – Harris fits a similar mold to Mixon as an “accumulator” who we can project for heavy volume. The Steelers offense should be better this year while still having an emphasis on using their running backs. People often forget that Harris had an RB3 finish in 2021 and has a higher season-long ceiling than is often perceived.
Pick 9.07 – Romeo Doubs, WR, GB – I’ve waited a while now since starting with four WRs. Doubs isn’t someone I am heavily targeting in drafts, but I am being conscious of getting Packers WRs on rosters just for the simple fact that there is almost certainly one or two of them who will significantly beat their ADP. Doubs fits well on this roster with the studs already on board to carry the positional silos.
Pick 10.06 – Brian Robinson, RB, WAS – My third RB fits a similar mold to the first two. Not flashy on the surface or in playing style, but should touch the ball plenty in a potentially ascendant offense. I really like how this RB room is coming together as all three of my backs so far should provide a nice weekly floor for my RB silo and I can take some shots with my next couple of RBs. This start (Mixon 6th, Najee 8th, Robinson 10th) reminds me of the first three RBs I took on my roster that finished 7th in this contest last year (Montgomery 7th, Kamara 8th, Mostert 11th).
