XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT
Sunday night brings the Cowboys to Pittsburgh for a 43.5 total game with the Steelers favored by 3. At first glance that looked odd, but then I realized that Dallas is 2-2 with a negative point differential while Pittsburgh is 3-1 with a +22 differential, one of the best in the league. Of course, these two teams win games very differently. Dallas has a very solid offense, while the Steelers slow things down and don’t score much but have allowed only 53 points to be scored against them, second lowest in the league (something I never would have guessed before the season, the Chargers are lowest with just 50). Let’s dig in.
Pittsburgh
For Pittsburgh, Jaylen Warren is going to miss another game, leaving the backfield to Najee Harris with Aaron Shampklin and one of Jonathan Ward or La’Mical Perine backing him up. Dallas had a Showdown game in Week 4 and we talked about how they’ve been getting run over on the ground but have also faced some powerful rushing attacks, and to be wary of viewing them as the worst defense in the league against the run . . . and then they proceeded to hold the Giants to just 26 total rushing yards. Beware of early season small samples. This defense doesn’t look like it should be so horrible against the run, and I’m willing to bet they can continue to look better against it in this one. Najee Harris is being projected around the industry as one of the highest owned players on the Fanduel main slate (which includes the Sunday night game), so I think it’s safe to say he’s going to project very well here and be very popular. I don’t think he’s a terrible play as he’s a home favorite running back who is going to have an extremely robust role (the 6 targets last week with Warren out were particularly encouraging). On paper, he looks like an awesome play. I’m just a little wary because his career sub-4 YPC and lack of any real explosive ability (his longest carry in the entirety of last season was 25 yards) means he’s going to have to really grind his way there, and if he doesn’t find the end zone, he could easily fail. With Pittsburgh only having scored six offensive touchdowns in four games, there isn’t a lot of scoring to go around, and Justin Fields is always a threat to steal a rushing score. Najee’s a very strong play on paper due to his workload and passing game role – I’m just a little wary. One way to play this, if you play on Fanduel, would be to completely avoid him on their main slate but then load up in the Showdown where he’s clearly a much stronger play. Shampkin only saw a single touch last week and I’d expect him to only be lightly involved but he’s worth including in tournament pools because he could steal a score or something could happen to Najee.
Showdown Ownership Projections!
Ownership updates automatically
In the passing game, the Steelers are averaging just 27.25 pass attempts per game with Justin Fields at quarterback. Of those pass attempts, George Pickens is seeing 7.25 per game – a pretty nice target share. Ostensible WR2 Van Jefferson has seen a whopping 8 targets, Calvin Austin has 10, Tight end Pat Freiermuth has 20, the running backs have 20, and the rest are scattered around. On this low-volume offense, it’s really only Pickens, Freiermuth, and the RBs seeing meaningful volume. They’re also going up against an aggressive and strong pass defense, however, Dallas is also missing some important pieces with DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons out, while top cornerback Trevon Diggs got a mid-week downgrade with an ankle injury on Thursday before not practicing on Friday. He’s listed as questionable but a mid-week downgrade/DNP is generally bad news. I’m guessing he misses. That makes the matchup significantly easier for Pickens, and while the Steelers would prefer not to throw a lot, Pickens is definitely a guy who can hit on limited volume (he already has three catches of 35+ yards this season out of 20 total receptions). Jefferson and Austin are really just tourney punt plays despite being the WR2/WR3 of this offense – the Steelers just don’t throw much and when they do it isn’t to these two. You’d need a fluky touchdown to make them relevant.
The other involved guy is of course Freiermuth, but he’s really in that traditional tight end safety valve role with an aDOT of just 4.9 yards. That means he probably needs volume or a touchdown to really hit – volume is scarce in this offense and touchdowns aren’t much better. At $6,600, he’s a tough click. TE2 and TE3 Darnell Washington and Connor Heyward can also be viewed as punt options. And yes, most of my Steelers interest is limited to Fields, Najee, and Pickens (and their kicker and DST). I’ll have smidges of the rest, but this is an offense that is both low volume and highly concentrated.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.