Kickoff Sunday, Oct 6th 1:00pm Eastern

Dolphins (
19.5) at

Patriots (
17.5)

Over/Under 37.0

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>
  • These are two of the four remaining teams who have not scored 21 points or more through a month of play.
  • The game total is a ridiculous 36.5 after opening at 35.5.
  • Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is reportedly symptom-free from his most recent concussion but remains on injured reserve.
  • These two teams might have the worst quarterback situations in the league. As we know, it’s hard to win in this league without competent quarterback play.
  • The Dolphins have lost the threat of the deep ball during the previous two weeks. If I’m McDaniel, I’m dialing up a deep shot to Tyreek Hill behind play action on the first play from scrimmage against the Patriots. Even if you don’t complete it, just the threat of deep passing will keep the back seven honest for the rest of the game.
  • Both teams should aim to feature their backfield against opponents that are stout against the run [NE – 4.0 yards allowed per carry (seventh) and 1.11 yards allowed before contact (second), MIA – 4.2 yards allowed per carry (11th) and 1.52 yards allowed before contact (ninth)].

How Miami Will Try To Win ::

The Dolphins are fresh off a putrid showing against a solid Titan defense in which Tyler Huntley drew the start after he was acquired from the Ravens practice squad a week earlier. Miami couldn’t move the football and ended with the lowest pass rate over expectation of any team in a single game this season (-21%). That said, the Titans lead the league in total offense allowed per game (243.8 yards per game) while the Patriots rank 24th (353.3 yards per game). Skylar Thompson was limited throughout the week with a rib injury leading into Week 4 but was ultimately held out, paving the way for the recently acquired “Snoop” Huntley to draw the start for the Dolphins. With another week to heal, it remains to be seen who to expect to be under center for the Dolphins as they prepare to face the Patriots. I think at this point the only thing we can say for certain is it is unlikely to be Tim Boyle. Furthering the poor situation this team suddenly finds themselves in, there were injuries galore a week ago, as the team lost linebacker Jaelen Phillips to a knee injury and safety Jordan Poyer to a shin injury after losing offensive tackle Terron Armstead to a concussion the week prior. Armstead was unable to practice at all leading up to Week 4 but returned to a limited session to start the week yesterday (Wednesday), meaning he is likely now symptom free. The big picture here is that the team is so completely hamstrung by their quarterback situation (and other injuries) that they have largely been unable to execute a functioning offense for the previous three games, with Tua leaving Week 2 with his most recent concussion, Thompson leaving Week 3 with the ribs injury, and Huntley starting Week 4 after being with the team for less than a week. The only touchdown they have mustered in the previous two games was a garbage time rushing score from Huntley with under four minutes remaining against the Titans. All of that and the team now has to perform on a short week after playing on Monday night in Week 4. Not great, Bob.

Raheem Mostert managed a week of limited sessions leading up to Week 4 but was ultimately held out with his chest injury. He started Week 5 preparations with another limited showing on Wednesday. Jeff Wilson apparently tweaked his knee in pregame warmups before Week 4 and played just two offensive snaps, which paved the way for rookie Jaylen Wright to see his heaviest involvement of his young career with a 47% snap rate. Through all the uncertainty in the backfield, second-year phenom De’Von Achane has remained the lead back but has struggled to find the same successes he did as a rookie behind a poor on-paper offensive line. He has forced just five missed tackles and averages just 1.98 yards after contact per attempt on 53 carries this season, a far cry from his record setting efficiency from a season ago. Furthermore, his once great pass game involvement has come way down with Tua out of action, seeing just eight total targets over the previous two games after seven in each of the first two games of the season.

A team with Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, and Jaylen Waddle (and even Jonnu Smith) has mustered just 389 yards of total offense during their previous two games. Not average, total. The Dolphins averaged 393.7 yards of offense per game in 2023. No singular metric highlights this drastic change in quarterback play more than Tyreek Hill’s underlying metrics with Tua versus all other quarterbacks. Hill averages 3.75 yards per route run with Tua and 2.39 with all other quarterbacks. His targets per route run with Tua is 36.3%; without Tua that drops to 25.9%. The offense has simply been unable to get the football to their top play makers with all quarterbacks not named Tua Tagovailoa. And that’s a problem. That’s also a Mike McDaniel thing as the once alpha offensive mind has been reduced to ruin in recent weeks. The offense makes zero sense, with everything confined to the short areas of the field. I get it, try and get the ball to your playmakers, but opposing defenses are able to collapse the depth without the threat of deep passing. If I’m McDaniel, I’m dialing a deep shot behind play action on the first play from scrimmage this week. There’s just nothing keeping the back seven honest right now. Instill that fear of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in your opponent immediately. If not, we’re liable to see another field goal battle in Week 5.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

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