Game Overview ::
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- The Bills most notable DNP is Khalil Shakir, who sat out Wednesday with an ankle injury. As of this writing, there is no indication that he is expected to miss this week.
- The Texans have an ambiguous injury situation with Joe Mixon (ankle), who was a DNP early in the week but was supposedly close to playing last week. The jury remains out on if he’ll return. Tank Dell (chest), who missed Week 4, began with a limited practice and is expected to return this week.
- The Bills are yet to throw more than 30 passes in a game. Josh Allen always has ceiling, but his floor is the lowest it’s ever been.
- James Cook has been making his living off touchdowns. The Bills are playing a lot of different running backs, even though Cook is priced like a workhorse.
- The Bills’ WR room is as spread out as any in the league. They had five players who saw over 35% of the snaps last week.
- Dalton Kincaid/Dawson Knox are in more of a timeshare than public perception would indicate.
- If Mixon doesn’t return, the Texans’ backfield is a timeshare between Cam Akers and Dare Ogunbowale.
- Nico Collins has been a beast, but the return of Dell will limit his target volume compared to what we saw last week.
- Stefon Diggs has been making his living off finding the end zone.
- Dalton Schultz has become an afterthought.
- This game has a strong total, plus a lot of name value, but everyone is expensive, and it’s hard to determine who will get the fantasy points.
How BUFFALO Will Try To Win ::
The 3-1 Bills come into Week 5 off their first loss of the season. It was an ugly 35-10 drubbing at the hands of the Ravens. Despite the brutal beatdown, it still only counts as one loss, leaving the Bills in sole possession of first place in the AFC East. It’s prudent to reserve passing judgment on teams early in the season, but entering Week 5, it’s time to start reacting to what has been shown the first four weeks. These are not the fun-and-gun Josh Allen Bills of the past several seasons. The Bills still throw at an above-average rate – they’re 13th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) – but that’s a misleading statistic. They have a negative PROE value, but even with a negative PROE, they’re still in the top half of the league because play callers have become more run-oriented. For perspective, the Bills’ PROE value was over 2.0% higher last year (even having played the back half of the season with Joe Brady at OC), and in 2022, the Bills’ PROE was 8.0% higher. The Bills have also played much slower (27th in seconds per play) than they did in previous years. This is a deliberate offense that wants to run the ball behind their strong O-line (fifth-ranked by PFF). It’s worth noting that the Bills’ O-line has been a top-tier unit in pass blocking (elite through the first three weeks before the Ravens got pressure) and more average in run blocking. The Bills’ pass blocking will be put to the test again against a strong (fifth in sack percentage) Houston pass rush.
Has the Bills’ new formula been successful? Debatable. Their offense is still good (No. 6 in overall DVOA), but they’re worse at running (No. 13 in DVOA), than passing (No. 3 in DVOA). The Texans have been stout (No. 4 in DVOA) against the run, but more vulnerable (No. 11 in DVOA) against the pass. That discrepancy is unlikely to tilt the Bills towards a more pass-heavy approach. Joe Brady appears to be a “do our thing” coach, who wants to play his preferred style, regardless of his opponent’s strengths. It’s also interesting that through their first four games, the Bills are yet to play in a neutral game script. Their last three game scores were 31-10, 47-10, and 10-35. Their Week 1 win against the Cardinals (34-28) had a close final score, but the Cards jumped out to a big lead, which altered the game flow early in the contest. It’s difficult to know exactly how the Bills will play in a game that is on even terms throughout, but the best guess is that they’ll stick with their new balanced approach that favors the run. Expect the Bills come out running, even though it’ll likely end up being Allen who must win them the game.
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