Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Chicago offense is still entirely broken under Shane Waldron and his face-up, static, 11-personnel-allergic scheme.
- On the subject of broken, Bears WR Keenan Allen does not look right. He appears to lack short-area burst, his routes are slow to develop, and Waldron is using him in entirely confusing ways (more on this below).
- Based on the tendencies of the Bears during the first four weeks of the season, they appear to be content to let the game come to them before adjusting to either an extremely pass-heavy offense if down early or an extremely reserved offense if their defense can control the environment of the game.
- The Panthers did not open rookie running back Jonathon Brooks’ practice window at the start of the week, meaning he is likely another 3-4 weeks away from his first game action as a professional. That also means we get another 3-4 games of Chuba Hubbard as the lead back in Carolina.
- Panthers WR Xavier Legette stepped into a primary role through the air in the first game without Adam Thielen, leading the pass catchers in snap rate while seeing 10 targets.
How carolina Will Try To Win ::
In all honesty, Dave Canales’ Panthers offense looked better in Week 4 than they have at any point this season. Thielen’s absence has opened up more fluidity in the offense, with Canales now able to move Diontae Johnson and Legette all over the formation as opposed to being forced to play Thielen at extreme slot snap rates. And say what you will about Legette, but this kid brings a new element of speed and play-making ability to the offense. He does not yet have a full grasp on a complete route tree, which will likely come with time (but he isn’t there yet), leaving Johnson entrenched as the primary engine of the offense through the air. The big picture here is that Canales appears to be in full control of the offense now that he has a capable passer under center in Andy Dalton. Considering their defense has allowed 358 yards of total offense (28th) and 32.3 points per game (32nd), they’ll likely need to keep their foot on the gas throughout the season.
Hubbard saw his highest snap rate of the season (74%) on his way to another game of 22 or more opportunities in Week 4 against the Bengals. As we’ve touched on throughout the 2024 season, there are 8-10 running backs that are seeing 22 or more opportunities per week currently, with Hubbard doing so in each of Dalton’s two starts. Canales did not open Brooks’ practice window to start the week, meaning Hubbard will get another game as the primary option in the backfield. The Bears are not an easy matchup on the ground, but they have exhibited run-funnel tendencies in the early going. They have allowed 121.0 rush yards per game (18th, after ranking first in 2023 at 86.4 per game) behind 4.5 yards allowed per carry (19th), with a lot of that due to the increase in volume they are facing this season (26.8 attempts per game after just 22.8 per game in 2023) due to their inefficient offense. Hubbard has forced eight missed tackles and gained 3.29 yards after contact per attempt on 55 carries this season, which are both top-24 marks.
Dalton has pass attempts of 37 and 40 in the two games since taking over the starting quarterback role for the Panthers, with those coming in a game environment they controlled against the Raiders and a tightly-contested, back-and-forth game in the first half against the Bengals before their opponent started to pull away early in the second half. In that loss to Cincinnati in Week 4, Dalton fed 23 combined targets to Diontae and Legette. Johnson operated through a full route tree as the focal point of the offense, while the speedy rookie largely does not have total command of a full route tree. Even so, Legette brings some burst to the offense that it largely didn’t have before he entered a primary role (Week 4 was the first game in which Legette played a near every-down role, leading the team with an 87% snap rate). Finally, the offense functioned primarily through 11-personnel in Week 4, as it has for most of the season.
Matt Eberflus’ defense operates primarily from zone (74.0%) with a solid mix of Cover-2 (11.5%), Cover-3 (35.1%), and Cover-4 (17.6%) and some Cover-6 thrown in to boot (9.9%). That makes his unit extremely fluid and difficult to predict. Carolina’s early-season returns against zone amongst its primary skill-position players have not been great, with Thielen the primary option against zone. Johnson has put up a solid 0.62 fantasy points per route run against zone coverage with Dalton under center, with no other pass catcher above 0.25 in that split (Jonathan Mingo). Johnson should continue to be the primary engine of the pass offense, even more so considering his 34% targets-per-route-run (TPRR) rate against zone with Dalton under center.
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