Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- The viability of the Giants’ offense will depend significantly on the status of star rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, who suffered a concussion at the end of their Week 4 game.
- New York has moved the ball relatively well this season but has been unable to convert those drives into touchdowns.
- The Giants have the 30th-ranked rushing offense by DVOA metrics through four weeks, while Seattle ranks seventh in run defense DVOA.
- Seattle is playing on a short week but has handled their business well against inferior opponents so far this season.
- Geno Smith leads the NFL in passing yards while facing three of the five most man-heavy coverage units in the league, while the Giants also rank in the top 10 in man-coverage rate.
- Seattle has a huge divisional matchup with the 49ers next Thursday night, which they will likely be aware of if the scoreboard gets out of hand in this one.
How new york Will Try To Win ::
The Giants’ offense revolves around Nabers. They have scored six touchdowns through four weeks. Three of those touchdowns (50%) have been scored by Nabers. He also accounts for 32% of their yards from scrimmage and 38% of their targets and receptions. The Giants’ starting offense has only one player with a PFF grade over 70 through four weeks and I’m sure you will be shocked to learn that Nabers is that player. To put that in perspective, Nabers currently ranks seventh among all NFL wide receivers in PFF receiving grade. Across the rest of the Giants’ starters: Daniel Jones is ranked 20th of 29 qualifying QBs, Devin Singletary is ranked 43rd out of 53 qualifying RBs, Wan’Dale Robinson is WR41 out of 50 qualifying WRs, and rookie Theo Johnson is ranked dead last among tight ends. This is all a big deal because Nabers suffered a concussion at the end of last Thursday night’s loss to the Cowboys and missed practice Wednesday, nearly a full week later. Considering that the Giants have only two practices left at the time of this writing before a cross-country flight and then a difficult matchup, the most likely outcome seems to be the Giants leaving him at home for this one, even though he is unquestionably the future of this franchise.
As we’ve already outlined, Nabers is the key to this Giants offense. His production is massive, but his presence also creates the little bit of success they have in other areas. Almost all of the Giants’ successful offensive plays that aren’t made by Nabers are opened up by the attention he draws and how they are able to open things up from that. If we remove him from that equation, things get tight in a hurry. Receivers will struggle to get quick separation, the running game will get clogged up as the defense is able to crowd the line of scrimmage, and Jones will be under a lot of pressure which – as we’ve seen before – can be a recipe for disaster. If Nabers is out, the Giants are likely to struggle creating any sort of offense. Head coach Brian Daboll will likely try to lean on the running game a little bit more, perhaps use Jones as a runner, and use quick-strike passes and bubble screens to try to counter the Seahawks’ pass rush and protect Jones from making mistakes. Their best/only chance will be keeping this game slow-paced and low-scoring.
If Nabers is somehow able to play, the Giants would have a fighting chance. He is truly a game-changing talent who can keep them in it with just a couple of big plays, but he’s also able to keep drives alive and sustain their time of possession and ball control. He is a top-10 NFL wide receiver already, possibly higher. New York faces a Seattle team that leads the league in QB pressure rate, although that is likely in part a function of the fact that they’ve faced the Broncos, Patriots, and “non-Tua” Dolphins. The Seahawks let Jared Goff of the Lions have a “perfect” game passing with zero incompletions on Monday night, but even in that game they managed to sack him three times. Quick-hitters to Robinson and Nabers, hoping for some yards after catch, would be the main method of moving the football, as the Giants rank 30th in rushing offense DVOA and the Seahawks have been very good against the run in every game except the high-octane Lions. The Giants may take some downfield shots to try to loosen things up, but Daboll has shown very little trust in Jones with his play calling and game management so far. New York’s chances of competing in this game depend on the availability of Nabers and the hope Seattle’s offense falters.
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