Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- This game has one of the lowest offensive expectations we have seen all year.
- The Raiders seem likely to be moving on from All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams, who missed Week 4 with a “hamstring” injury and is now the subject of trade rumors.
- Running back Alexander Mattison is potentially in the midst of a takeover of the backfield from Zamir White.
- Denver’s offense has been bad, to say the least, with a conservative approach and mediocre personnel.
- The Broncos defense has been a top-five unit through the first four weeks of the year.
- The Raiders rank #1 in PFF’s run-defense grades, while the Broncos rank 30th in PFF’s run-blocking grades.
How las vegas Will Try To Win ::
The Raiders appear intent on moving on from Adams and are entertaining trade offers for him. It has already been announced that he will not play this week, so the Raiders we saw in Week 4 are the team from a personnel standpoint that we will be dealing with going forward. Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker are clearly the top options at wide receiver, with Brock Bowers operating as the lead tight end and Michael Mayer (when healthy) or Harrison Bryant playing in the No. 2 tight-end role. The backfield has been White’s to date, but Mattison has outplayed him in several areas and a backfield takeover appears imminent – especially after head coach Antonio Pierce made some comments after Sunday’s game suggesting exactly that. Despite going into “sell” mode with Adams, the Raiders have a 2-2 record and three winnable games coming up against the Broncos, Steelers, and Rams. Pierce is a highly competitive individual and this team will keep bringing it on a weekly basis.
This week, the Raiders face a Denver defense that ranks fifth in the league in DVOA through four games and has given up only two touchdowns in the last three weeks. The Broncos have been very good against the run, shutting down Breece Hall and Braelon Allen in Week 4, while the Raiders rank dead last in the NFL in PFF run-blocking and rushing grades. Las Vegas also ranks in the bottom five in the league in rushing offense DVOA and yards per rush attempt, so this is a situation where the numbers and the film definitely match up, as the Raiders are blocking poorly and running poorly. Even if Mattison takes over for White, it is unlikely a relatively middling talent like him is going to alter the outlook for the team’s rushing attack in this matchup.
Considering how unlikely rushing success is for the Raiders, their ability to score points will likely rely on their passing attack. Meyers and Tucker combined for 16 of the team’s 24 targets last week in the first game without Adams. This week, one of them will be dealing with Patrick Surtain, although they both play a relatively high amount of their snaps in the slot, so it’s unlikely this turns into a “shadow” situation for either of them. The Raiders did not do a good job of getting Bowers involved last week, something we should expect to see rectified this week as they struggle to run and try to avoid the Broncos’ elite perimeter coverage that ranks fifth in PFF coverage grade. Denver plays the highest rate of man coverage in the league, which Bowers has struggled against this season – he ranks 31st out of 63 tight ends in PFF receiving grade against man coverage, while ranking second in the entire NFL against zone coverage. Considering all the elements of this matchup, Tucker’s speed may be a key for Las Vegas to move the ball and they may have to scheme him touches in various ways. In any regard, the likelihood of a low-scoring game makes this a spot where the Raiders are unlikely to be overly aggressive.
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