Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Commanders started their week of preparation with 13 players on the injury report, most notably RB Brian Robinson (DNP, knee).
- Not to be outdone by the Commanders, the Browns had 18 players listed on the first injury report of the week.
- Cleveland activated the practice window for RB Nick Chubb, which is truly remarkable considering the extent of his knee injury last season. I don’t expect him to make his return in Week 5, although the dude is clearly Superman.
- Browns OT Jack Conklin (hamstring), EDGE Myles Garrett (Achilles), OT Jedrick Wills (knee), and C Ethan Pocic (ankle) were the main absentees from practice Wednesday.
- Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are in the midst of a three-game torrid stretch in which they have punted once and turned the ball over once. That’s pretty insane in the current state of the league.
- On the other hand, the Browns rank second (tied with the Chiefs) in total pressure rate and rank first in pressure rate over expectation, and the Commanders have struggled in the face of pressure this season (kicked seven field goals against the Giants and their fifth-ranked pressure rate).
How cleveland Will Try To Win ::
The Browns are hemorraging bodies on both sides of the ball, with three primary offensive linemen and their best player on defense, Myles Garrett, all missing practice Wednesday. The O-line’s health, or lack thereof, and the poor performances from quarterback Deshaun Watson have left the Browns in bad shape through the first month of play, sitting at a 1-3 record while failing to score more than 18 points in any game this season. In fact, the Browns are one of just four teams yet to score 21 points or more at any point, joined by the Jaguars, Patriots, and Dolphins (who would have seen that last team mentioned at the start of the 2024 season?). For all the crap I’ve given Watson during the first four weeks of the season, he actually looked much better on tape in Week 4. And I’m not even talking about the end result, which could be argued as matchup-boosted as they played a Raiders team without Maxx Crosby; I’m more speaking to how Watson looked with his mechanics, mobility, poise, and arm strength. I’m not sure if we can definitively say that he’s turned a corner, but he definitely looked much improved on tape.
The Browns have been in control of one game environment this season, an 18-13 victory over the Jaguars in which they led 13-3 at the half. In that game, Jerome Ford saw his lowest snap rate of the young season at just 44%, handily out-touched 15 to eight by D’Onta Foreman. Ford has seen 75% or more of the offensive snaps in the three other games for the Browns. And while Nick Chubb had his practice window opened at the start of the week and got in a limited session on Wednesday, he worked exclusively to the side, and I have to think he would require some ramp-up time after destroying his knee a season ago. Look, Chubb has already proven to be Superman, but I expect him to be inactive come Sunday. That should, in turn, leave Ford with an expectation in the 75%-ish snap rate and 14-18 opportunity ranges, in theory, at least. Cleveland’s offensive line has been middling in run-blocking metrics (20th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt) and atrocious in pass protection, which makes sense when you consider they have played the entirety of the season without both starting All-Pro tackles. The pure matchup on the ground is about as good as they come against a Commanders defense allowing the third-most yards before contact (2.79) and 5.3 yards per carry (31st). The biggest concern here is the current state of the Cleveland offensive line, with three starters (both tackles and the center) unable to practice Wednesday, in addition to moderate expected volume for a team with the fourth-highest pass rate over expectation through four weeks.
Amari Cooper and Watson have yet to fully get on the same page. Watson missed a wide-open Cooper on a deep ball in the third quarter for a would-be touchdown, and Cooper dropped a pass that hit him in the chest and bounced straight in the air for a Raiders interception. Cooper now has a 13.5% drop rate, tied with rookie Malik Nabers for the most drops per target in the league. Furthermore, Cooper’s 60.9% catchable target rate ranks fifth-worst in the league of wide receivers to see ten or more targets (ahead of only Courtland Sutton, Calvin Ridley, Gabe Davis, and Ladd McConkey). Interestingly enough, Deshaun Watson’s 17.6% off-target throw rate is far from atrocious, succumbing to an abnormally high 9.5% drop rate (second-worst in the league behind only Daniel Jones) from his pass-catchers. If looking only at Cooper’s underlying metrics, we’re able to see some clear eruptions in the immediate future, considering a 46.8% team air yards share (seventh in the league), 467 total air yards (fourth in the league), solid 12.6 aDOT, and solid 30.2% first-read target rate, and a matchup with the Commanders and their spotty secondary could be just what the doctor ordered. Furthering that potential is a Washington defensive front generating pressure at the third lowest rate in the league (25.8%), which should help mitigate the liabilities of an offensive line ravaged by injuries. Finally, the Browns now rank fourth in pass rate over expectation, and only Cooper (37 targets) and Jerry Jeudy (30 targets) have seen more than 20 targets this season (running back Jerome Ford checks in at 20). On that note, Watson has averaged 37 pass attempts per game, while Cooper has an average of 9.25 targets and an average of 7.5 targets per game for Jeudy.
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