Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- The Ravens are the most pass-funnel defense in the league and the Bengals rank third in pass rate over expectation (they were ranked first until their meeting with the Panthers last week).
- The Bengals don’t do anything at an elite level of defense but are surrendering a robust 145.5 yards per game on the ground, and we know the Ravens are going to stuff the run down your throat more than about any other team in the league.
- Ravens NT Michael Pierce has practiced in full both days so far this week, appearing likely to return from a one-game absence.
- Bengals DT Sheldon Rankins remains out of practice (DNP, DNP) while fellow DT B.J. Hill has gotten in consecutive limited sessions (as did DE Trey Hendrickson).
- Bengals nickel corner Mike Hilton (knee) has missed both practices this week.
- These two teams have combined to score 51 points or more in four of their last five meetings, with Tee Higgins missing in one of the games they failed to do so and the other coming in a game without both Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews in a meaningless game for the Ravens in Week 18 of 2022.
How baltimore Will Try To Win ::
The Ravens have the most creative run game in all of football. You see it on tape, you see in the box scores, and you see it in the metrics. And they are going to leverage that run game in almost everything they do. Run-pass options, play action, quarterback keepers, designed quarterback runs, power runs, heavy fullback utilization, elite blocking from Mark Andrews on the edge – they do it all. Against a Bengals team that has allowed two 100-yard rushers and five total touchdowns on the ground through four weeks (only the Chiefs failed to score on the ground against the Bengals), it’s safe to say those tendencies will remain largely unchanged here. I honestly don’t know who I would call the Ravens most valuable player through the first month of play, but I know all three options involve the run game. It’s either quarterback Lamar Jackson, running back Derrick Henry, or fullback Patrick Ricard. Those three are playing some good football, and Ricard is probably one of the great unsung heroes in the league (just look at how the team and crowd reacted when he fielded a punt last week against the Bills). On the defensive side of the ball, the Ravens are not going to let you run on them, leading the league (by a wide margin) with only 57.5 yards allowed on the ground per game, except now they don’t have the same firepower in the secondary as they once had. Defensive tackle Michael Pierce remains one of the top run-stoppers in the league while Roquan Smith, Trenton Simpson, and Kyle Van Noy are elite against the run in the linebacker corps. Finally, since the Bengals are never truly trying to push the game environment on their own, the Ravens should be allowed to run their preferred game plan for deep into this game.
After starting the season with 46% snap rates in each of the first two games, Derrick Henry has seen snap rates of 59% and 65% in the last two games. The Ravens started their season against the stout front of the Chiefs before playing the Raiders (fifth-most yards allowed before contact), Cowboys (fourth-most yards allowed before contact), and Bills (most yards allowed before contact), which makes a matchup against the Bengals (14th) feel like a good spot for the trend of increased Henry involvement to continue. Justice Hill plays a solid complimentary role in this offense, with four or five carries in each of the previous three games but a dynamic contributor to the offense through the air. That said, if the Ravens are controlling the game environment, it should be through Henry on the ground. After his eruptions the previous two games, Henry ranks first in the league in rushing yards (480, on pace for a 2,000-yard season), total touchdowns (six), and breakaway runs (seven). The Return of the King, indeed.
John Harbaugh continues to emphasize all the things that Mark Andrews does for the offense other than catching passes. And to be fair, he isn’t wrong. Andrews is continuously in the trenches for this team, much to the chagrin of the general fantasy community that sees his lowly 61.5% route participation rate and nine total targets, sending everyone into a fit. But with the team averaging just 27 pass attempts per game, with just 33 combined pass attempts from Lamar Jackson over the previous two games, those numbers start to make a little more sense. Over the last two games, no Baltimore pass-catcher played more than 68% of the offensive snaps, with all of Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor, Isaiah Likely, and Andrews held down by the game environments this team has been able to force in that span. And honestly, they won both those games handily and are clearly happy to win games in that fashion if possible. That means they must be forced from those tendencies to open up through the air, which the Bengals are generally not going to do at great frequency under Zac Taylor. That also provides a clear blueprint for how to play pieces of this pass game in DFS. More on that at a later time.
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