Game Overview ::
By mike johnson >>
- Green Bay’s offense was rusty early in Jordan Love’s return before finding its rhythm in the second half.
- The Packers have one of the more favorable schedules for any offense in the league over the next several weeks.
- Green Bay has lost wide receiver Christian Watson to an ankle injury for several weeks, but his absence provides some clarity for us in terms of passing game roles and usage.
- The Rams have played in three very close games through four weeks and have adjusted their personnel usage and roles in response to their own offensive injuries.
- The Los Angeles defense ranks 31st in the league in both run defense DVOA and pass defense DVOA.
How green bay Will Try To Win ::
When evaluating the Packers, we can basically throw out two of their four games due to the absence of Jordan Love. That leaves us with an opening week shootout against the Eagles and a Week 4 game against the Vikings where they fell behind 28-0 in the first half before a valiant second half comeback fell just short. We know this Packers offense is well coached and can put up points, but we also have a history of Matt LaFleur sometimes needing to be pushed by his opponent into an aggressive mindset. This is not to rain on the parade of those excited about the Packers this week, but more so just pointing out the fact that we only have two games of data on Green Bay and in both of those games they faced very good teams, one of which played a back and forth game with them, and the other which forced them to pick up the tempo and air it out. We have yet to see Green Bay jump out on an opponent and control a game and therefore can’t be sure how they will approach that situation if/when it happens.
The Packers certainly have a great on-paper matchup this week against a Rams defense that has struggled all year. Los Angeles has a defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against both the pass and the run. They gave up 41 points to the Cardinals and made their passing attack look elite, while the Cardinals passing game has struggled in their other three games. They gave up 24 points to the Bears (their season-high) last week and made their previously putrid rushing attack look very good. This is a flawed unit that can be had in a variety of ways. We can look for the Packers to get their ground game going this week after failing to do so in Week 4 and seeing Chicago run roughshod around the Rams. While this team is built around Jordan Love, the Matt LaFleur scheme depends highly on being able to run the ball to set up play action concepts and attack the intermediate to deep areas of the field.
When Green Bay does throw the ball, things are finally getting a little more condensed. Wide receiver Christian Watson is out for a few weeks, thrusting Dontayvion Wicks into a full-time role and solidifying their top three receivers as Wicks, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed. Doubs and Wicks are primarily perimeter receivers while Reed is a “do-it-all” type who runs 70% of his snaps from the slot. Green Bay gets him involved in a variety of ways and he has amassed 312 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns in the two games that Love has played. He and Jacobs are likely to function as the engines of the offense this week and are likely to be successful doing so. Jordan Love was 5th in the NFL in average intended air yards in 2023 and has a great matchup and weapons to attack downfield this week. While the Packers pass rate will likely drop from what we’ve seen in the two games Love started this year, he will likely be aggressive in pushing the ball and have some success doing so. Keep in mind that this is a Rams team that has given up massive games to downfield wide receivers Jameson Williams, Marvin Harrison, Jr., and Jauan Jennings.
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