XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 5 begins with the Bucs visiting the Falcons for a 43.5 total game with Atlanta favored by 1.5. Atlanta is off to kind of a weird start this season. After a much-vaunted offensive regime change, including dumping Arthur Smith and bringing in Kirk Cousins at quarterback, the Falcons have scored just 10, 22, 17, and 12 points on offense. Kirk Cousins has averaged just under 30 dropbacks per game and only 216 passing yards with a 4:4 TD/interception ratio. Not great. The Falcons defense has kept them in games, limiting opponent scoring despite not really getting after the quarterback. They have just four sacks all season but have also allowed only 21.3 points per game. The Bucs, meanwhile, have alternated looking like an absolutely offensive powerful against Washington and Philly, but then barely squeaked by Detroit, and somehow completely failed to get anything going against the Broncos. The Tampa defense, however, has been even better than the Falcons. Despite having to fight through injuries, they’ve racked up eight sacks (to be fair, six of those were in one game) and are allowing just 19.5 points per game. On paper it feels like the edge goes to the Bucs – both teams have done well at preventing their opponent from scoring (though the Bucs have done it better), but Tampa’s offense has looked solid overall while Atlanta’s has been stuck in the mud. 

Atlanta

We’ll start on the Falcons side. Bijan Robinson is listed questionable with a hamstring injury, which of course has huge implications for the slate. Bijan played a season-low 64% of the snaps last week and saw just 11 touches while RB2 Tyler Allgeier played 38% of the snaps and handled 10 touches. Obviously, if Bijan misses, Allgeier is wildly mispriced at $4,800, and they would likely bring a practice squad guy up to back him up (“running back” Avery Williams has yet to see an offensive touch and is really more of a special teams guy, though he could still be used as a punt option just in case they surprise us). If Bijan plays, it’s a tough spot. The matchup is good as the Tampa run defense is not what we’re used to seeing in years past (allowing a whopping 5 yards per carry, 29th in the league) but it’s a bit tough to trust a running back playing through a soft tissue injury on a short week. I want exposure to the Falcons running game due to the matchup, but it’s risky if Bijan’s in. I’d probably end up roughly matching the field on Bijan ownership but trying to overweight Allgeier in case his role is bigger than expected or Bijan aggravates the hamstring during the game.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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The Falcons offensive struggles have resulted in awfully cheap prices for their skill position players. Drake London is $8,800, Kirk Cousins is $8,600 (well below where we normally see QBs in Showdown); Darnell Mooney is at $7,200 which is pretty fair, while Kyle Pitts at $5,600 might still be overpriced given how poor he’s been. Since Week 2, the Falcons three top wide receivers have played nearly every snap – London, Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud. McCloud was a half-time player in Week 1 as Pitts played nearly every snap, but Atlanta has pulled back on Pitts as he’s continued to disappoint and replaced him with more field time for McCloud. London, to me, feels like more of a floor than a ceiling play, at least the way this offense is currently designed. He’s going into the third year of his career with just three 100+ receiving yard games to his name, and while the hopes were high for Atlanta’s offense this year, nothing we’ve seen is really indicative of success – neither actual scoring nor the underlying passing game volume, which has remained below average. London’s not really a big play guy and tends to need a lot of volume to really smash, and we haven’t seen that kind of passing volume from Atlanta (the 12 targets last week were, of course, encouraging – there is some ceiling in here somewhere). He’s fine but nothing really gets me excited about playing him. Mooney is a guy who I was excited about when he was cheaper, but as his price has come up, he’s now more fairly priced. I do think he has more “boom” in his game than London with the consistent deep work he gets, and I think he’s a better captain choice than London because his role gives him access to a different type of ceiling, but deep ball specialists also have scary-low floors (i.e. perfect for tournaments). McCloud is also listed questionable but has been listed limited twice this week so I expect him to play and he looks very interested as a value play. $3,400 is too cheap for him, even if his upside is limited due to mostly running short area routes – he’s a better play on a PPR site like Draftkings, but he shouldn’t be priced below the kickers. 

At tight end…well, Kyle Pitts has just been really, really bad. Hilow and Mike were on it all offseason in their Best Ball analysis – he seems to be a better athlete than he is a football player. He’s on the field enough to where I’m sure he’ll have a couple of decent games this year, and in Showdown it’s hard to X a guy out entirely, but he has 15 targets on the year and outside of one nice 50-yard catch, he hasn’t really done very much with just eight catches. I’ll keep him in my MME pool, probably, but be underweight where I expect the field to play him. Finally, TE2 Charlie Woerner can be viewed as an MME punt option. 

Tampa Bay

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 5 and we get a London game! More Showdowns! I love all the extra island games the NFL has been scheduling these past couple of years. This one has the Jets and Vikings playing in a 40.5 total game with Minnesota favored by 2.5. The Vikings have raced off to a 4-0 start, with three extremely convincing wins and then a close win against the Packers in which they ran up a huge lead and then sat on it, allowing the Packers to come back and almost steal it from them. The Jets, meanwhile, are 2-2 with losses to the 49ers (no shame there) and the Broncos (ok, a fair bit of shame there). Anything can happen in football, but man, the Vikings really do look like a team to beat and have somewhat unexpectedly looked absolutely elite on defense, while the Jets have been pretty good on defense (13 sacks is nice) but have really struggled to move the ball and score. The Vikings sure look like the better team, but I also expect the field to realize that and build Vikings-heavy rosters. Let’s dig into this one. 

New York

On the Jets side, Breece Hall has looked shockingly bad as a runner this season. He has 56 carries through four games, going for just 3.1 yards per carry. He’s still a good pass catcher, but we’ve been seeing him slowly lose snaps and rushing work to Braelon Allen (1 carry in Week 1, but then 7 // 11 // 8 in Weeks 2 through 4 to go along with 4 // 3 // 1 targets). Since Week 1, Breece has a total of 40 carries and 18 targets while Allen has 26 carries and 8 targets, giving Breece a 63% share of the overall opportunities and 60% of the rushing work. That’s decent but hardly bell cow level (sorry, round 1 Breece drafters). Hall has kept up his fantasy scores with his receiving work and touchdowns in three of four games but this looks kind of shaky. His price has dipped below $10k for the first time all season, so it’s adjusting for the role and the performance. It’s hard for me to get excited here given the matchup against a Vikings defense that has absolutely stuffed opposing rushing attacks, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry (3rd best in the league). As we saw on Monday with Kenneth Walker, good players can succeed in bad matchups and running backs can always find their way to a multiple-touchdown game, but if Hall looks like he’s going to be one of the highest owned plays on the slate I’m probably going to take an underweight position here. Allen is a classic “RB2 in Showdown” play – generally underowned compared to their likelihood of ending up in the optimal lineup, but also a risky tourney only kind of play. If the matchup were better I’d be really interested in Allen, but as it’s really bad, I’m only lukewarm.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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The Jets passing game should find its way to more success as the Vikings have been a pass funnel defense so far – they’re not bad against the pass at 6.2 yards per pass attempt allowed, but that’s just slightly better than league average vs. being elite against the run. The Jets passing attack has been led by Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and Mike Williams at wide receiver, with Tyler Conklin as the primary tight end. Wilson has been off to a very slow start by his standards with just 191 receiving yards in four games but the volume has still been there: 34 targets represent a solid 26.5% target share and 8.5 per game is nothing to sneeze at, especially at $8,600. I have to think a breakout game is coming for him. The Jets best wide receiver so far this year, surprisingly, has been journeyman Allen Lazard (206 receiving yards and 3 scores). His volume has been more up and down than Wilson’s with target counts of 9, 4, 3, and 8, but at $6,600, I think he’s priced reasonably for his median outcome but a little underpriced for his ceiling. I see him as a solid mid-range option and my favorite play in the $5k – $7k price range. Mike Williams hasn’t gotten it going just yet, but he’s been ramped up to over half the snaps coming off of last season’s injury and his performance has been trending up: lines of 1/19, 3/34, and 4/67 in consecutive games. Williams is obviously a boom/bust kind of player but in a matchup in which we should expect the Jets to be throwing at an elevated rate, I think he makes for a really outstanding tournament play. I’m hoping his lack of production so far will keep him in the 20%-ish range for ownership, a number that I think is too low. To be clear: at similar prices, I think Lazard is the stronger on-paper play (and I expect projections will agree with me), but I think Williams is a really smart play to be overweight on in tourneys. WR4 Xavier Gipson is barely involved and can be left in the MME punt pool. 

Tight end Tyler Conklin looks mispriced at $3,200 (somehow down from last week’s $5,200 Showdown price). He’s played 90%+ of the snaps in every game and has seen 6 and 8 targets in his last two games – even if a more reasonable projection is around 5, that’s a lot of volume for somebody this cheap. He’s an awesome value play. TE2 Jeremy Ruckert can be viewed as a touchdown-or-bust tourney option.

Minnesota

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Chicago offense is still entirely broken under Shane Waldron and his face-up, static, 11-personnel-allergic scheme.
• On the subject of broken, Bears WR Keenan Allen does not look right. He appears to lack short-area burst, his routes are slow to develop, and Waldron is using him in entirely confusing ways (more on this below).
• Based on the tendencies of the Bears during the first four weeks of the season, they appear to be content to let the game come to them before adjusting to either an extremely pass-heavy offense if down early or an extremely reserved offense if their defense can control the environment of the game.
• The Panthers did not open rookie running back Jonathon Brooks’ practice window at the start of the week, meaning he is likely another 3-4 weeks away from his first game action as a professional. That also means we get another 3-4 games of Chuba Hubbard as the lead back in Carolina.
• Panthers WR Xavier Legette stepped into a primary role through the air in the first game without Adam Thielen, leading the pass catchers in snap rate while seeing 10 targets.

How carolina Will Try To Win ::

In all honesty, Dave Canales’ Panthers offense looked better in Week 4 than they have at any point this season. Thielen’s absence has opened up more fluidity in the offense, with Canales now able to move Diontae Johnson and Legette all over the formation as opposed to being forced to play Thielen at extreme slot snap rates. And say what you will about Legette, but this kid brings a new element of speed and play-making ability to the offense. He does not yet have a full grasp on a complete route tree, which will likely come with time (but he isn’t there yet), leaving Johnson entrenched as the primary engine of the offense through the air. The big picture here is that Canales appears to be in full control of the offense now that he has a capable passer under center in Andy Dalton. Considering their defense has allowed 358 yards of total offense (28^th) and 32.3 points per game (32^nd), they’ll likely need to keep their foot on the gas throughout the season.

Hubbard saw his highest snap rate of the season (74%) on his way to another game of 22 or more opportunities in Week 4 against the Bengals. As we’ve touched on throughout the 2024 season, there are 8-10 running backs that are seeing 22 or more opportunities per week currently, with Hubbard doing so in each of Dalton’s two starts. Canales did not open Brooks’ practice window to start the week, meaning Hubbard will get another game as the primary option in the backfield. The Bears are not an easy matchup on the ground, but they have exhibited run-funnel tendencies in the early going. They have allowed 121.0 rush yards per game (18^th, after ranking first in 2023 at 86.4 per game) behind 4.5 yards allowed per carry (19^th), with a lot of that due to the increase in volume they are facing this season (26.8 attempts per game after just 22.8 per game in 2023) due to their inefficient offense. Hubbard has forced eight missed tackles and gained 3.29 yards after contact per attempt on 55 carries this season, which are both top-24 marks.

Dalton has pass attempts of 37 and 40 in the two games since taking over the starting quarterback role for the Panthers, with those coming in a game environment they controlled against the Raiders and a tightly-contested, back-and-forth game in the first half against the Bengals before their opponent started to pull away early in the second half. In that loss to Cincinnati in Week 4, Dalton fed 23 combined targets to Diontae and Legette. Johnson operated through a full route tree as the focal point of the offense, while the speedy rookie largely does not have total command of a full route tree. Even so, Legette brings some burst to the offense that it largely didn’t have before he entered a primary role (Week 4 was the first game in which Legette played a near every-down role, leading the team with an 87% snap rate). Finally, the offense functioned primarily through 11-personnel in Week 4, as it has for most of the season. 

Matt Eberflus’ defense operates primarily from zone (74.0%) with a solid mix of Cover-2 (11.5%), Cover-3 (35.1%), and Cover-4 (17.6%) and some Cover-6 thrown in to boot (9.9%). That makes his unit extremely fluid and difficult to predict. Carolina’s early-season returns against zone amongst its primary skill-position players have not been great, with Thielen the primary option against zone. Johnson has put up a solid 0.62 fantasy points per route run against zone coverage with Dalton under center, with no other pass catcher above 0.25 in that split (Jonathan Mingo). Johnson should continue to be the primary engine of the pass offense, even more so considering his 34% targets-per-route-run (TPRR) rate against zone with Dalton under center. 

How chicago Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Ravens are the most pass-funnel defense in the league and the Bengals rank third in pass rate over expectation (they were ranked first until their meeting with the Panthers last week).
• The Bengals don’t do anything at an elite level of defense but are surrendering a robust 145.5 yards per game on the ground, and we know the Ravens are going to stuff the run down your throat more than about any other team in the league.
• Ravens NT Michael Pierce has practiced in full both days so far this week, appearing likely to return from a one-game absence.
• Bengals DT Sheldon Rankins remains out of practice (DNP, DNP) while fellow DT B.J. Hill has gotten in consecutive limited sessions (as did DE Trey Hendrickson).
• Bengals nickel corner Mike Hilton (knee) has missed both practices this week.
• These two teams have combined to score 51 points or more in four of their last five meetings, with Tee Higgins missing in one of the games they failed to do so and the other coming in a game without both Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews in a meaningless game for the Ravens in Week 18 of 2022.

How baltimore Will Try To Win ::

The Ravens have the most creative run game in all of football. You see it on tape, you see in the box scores, and you see it in the metrics. And they are going to leverage that run game in almost everything they do. Run-pass options, play action, quarterback keepers, designed quarterback runs, power runs, heavy fullback utilization, elite blocking from Mark Andrews on the edge – they do it all. Against a Bengals team that has allowed two 100-yard rushers and five total touchdowns on the ground through four weeks (only the Chiefs failed to score on the ground against the Bengals), it’s safe to say those tendencies will remain largely unchanged here. I honestly don’t know who I would call the Ravens most valuable player through the first month of play, but I know all three options involve the run game. It’s either quarterback Lamar Jackson, running back Derrick Henry, or fullback Patrick Ricard. Those three are playing some good football, and Ricard is probably one of the great unsung heroes in the league (just look at how the team and crowd reacted when he fielded a punt last week against the Bills). On the defensive side of the ball, the Ravens are not going to let you run on them, leading the league (by a wide margin) with only 57.5 yards allowed on the ground per game, except now they don’t have the same firepower in the secondary as they once had. Defensive tackle Michael Pierce remains one of the top run-stoppers in the league while Roquan Smith, Trenton Simpson, and Kyle Van Noy are elite against the run in the linebacker corps. Finally, since the Bengals are never truly trying to push the game environment on their own, the Ravens should be allowed to run their preferred game plan for deep into this game.

After starting the season with 46% snap rates in each of the first two games, Derrick Henry has seen snap rates of 59% and 65% in the last two games. The Ravens started their season against the stout front of the Chiefs before playing the Raiders (fifth-most yards allowed before contact), Cowboys (fourth-most yards allowed before contact), and Bills (most yards allowed before contact), which makes a matchup against the Bengals (14^th) feel like a good spot for the trend of increased Henry involvement to continue. Justice Hill plays a solid complimentary role in this offense, with four or five carries in each of the previous three games but a dynamic contributor to the offense through the air. That said, if the Ravens are controlling the game environment, it should be through Henry on the ground. After his eruptions the previous two games, Henry ranks first in the league in rushing yards (480, on pace for a 2,000-yard season), total touchdowns (six), and breakaway runs (seven). The Return of the King, indeed.

John Harbaugh continues to emphasize all the things that Mark Andrews does for the offense other than catching passes. And to be fair, he isn’t wrong. Andrews is continuously in the trenches for this team, much to the chagrin of the general fantasy community that sees his lowly 61.5% route participation rate and nine total targets, sending everyone into a fit. But with the team averaging just 27 pass attempts per game, with just 33 combined pass attempts from Lamar Jackson over the previous two games, those numbers start to make a little more sense. Over the last two games, no Baltimore pass-catcher played more than 68% of the offensive snaps, with all of Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor, Isaiah Likely, and Andrews held down by the game environments this team has been able to force in that span. And honestly, they won both those games handily and are clearly happy to win games in that fashion if possible. That means they must be forced from those tendencies to open up through the air, which the Bengals are generally not going to do at great frequency under Zac Taylor. That also provides a clear blueprint for how to play pieces of this pass game in DFS. More on that at a later time.

How Cincinnati Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By PAPY324>>

• The Bills most notable DNP is Khalil Shakir, who sat out Wednesday with an ankle injury. As of this writing, there is no indication that he is expected to miss this week. 
• The Texans have an ambiguous injury situation with Joe Mixon (ankle), who was a DNP early in the week but was supposedly close to playing last week. The jury remains out on if he’ll return. Tank Dell (chest), who missed Week 4, began with a limited practice and is expected to return this week. 
• The Bills are yet to throw more than 30 passes in a game. Josh Allen always has ceiling, but his floor is the lowest it’s ever been. 
• James Cook has been making his living off touchdowns. The Bills are playing a lot of different running backs, even though Cook is priced like a workhorse. 
• The Bills’ WR room is as spread out as any in the league. They had five players who saw over 35% of the snaps last week. 
• Dalton Kincaid/Dawson Knox are in more of a timeshare than public perception would indicate. 
• If Mixon doesn’t return, the Texans’ backfield is a timeshare between Cam Akers and Dare Ogunbowale. 
• Nico Collins has been a beast, but the return of Dell will limit his target volume compared to what we saw last week. 
• Stefon Diggs has been making his living off finding the end zone.
• Dalton Schultz has become an afterthought. 
• This game has a strong total, plus a lot of name value, but everyone is expensive, and it’s hard to determine who will get the fantasy points.

How BUFFALO Will Try To Win ::

The 3-1 Bills come into Week 5 off their first loss of the season. It was an ugly 35-10 drubbing at the hands of the Ravens. Despite the brutal beatdown, it still only counts as one loss, leaving the Bills in sole possession of first place in the AFC East. It’s prudent to reserve passing judgment on teams early in the season, but entering Week 5, it’s time to start reacting to what has been shown the first four weeks. These are not the fun-and-gun Josh Allen Bills of the past several seasons. The Bills still throw at an above-average rate – they’re 13^th in pass rate over expectation (PROE) – but that’s a misleading statistic. They have a negative PROE value, but even with a negative PROE, they’re still in the top half of the league because play callers have become more run-oriented. For perspective, the Bills’ PROE value was over 2.0% higher last year (even having played the back half of the season with Joe Brady at OC), and in 2022, the Bills’ PROE was 8.0% higher. The Bills have also played much slower (27^th in seconds per play) than they did in previous years. This is a deliberate offense that wants to run the ball behind their strong O-line (fifth-ranked by PFF). It’s worth noting that the Bills’ O-line has been a top-tier unit in pass blocking (elite through the first three weeks before the Ravens got pressure) and more average in run blocking. The Bills’ pass blocking will be put to the test again against a strong (fifth in sack percentage) Houston pass rush. 

Has the Bills’ new formula been successful? Debatable. Their offense is still good (No. 6 in overall DVOA), but they’re worse at running (No. 13 in DVOA), than passing (No. 3 in DVOA). The Texans have been stout (No. 4 in DVOA) against the run, but more vulnerable (No. 11 in DVOA) against the pass. That discrepancy is unlikely to tilt the Bills towards a more pass-heavy approach. Joe Brady appears to be a “do our thing” coach, who wants to play his preferred style, regardless of his opponent’s strengths. It’s also interesting that through their first four games, the Bills are yet to play in a neutral game script. Their last three game scores were 31-10, 47-10, and 10-35. Their Week 1 win against the Cardinals (34-28) had a close final score, but the Cards jumped out to a big lead, which altered the game flow early in the contest. It’s difficult to know exactly how the Bills will play in a game that is on even terms throughout, but the best guess is that they’ll stick with their new balanced approach that favors the run. Expect the Bills come out running, even though it’ll likely end up being Allen who must win them the game. 

How HOUSTON Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• Colts QB Anthony Richardson (oblique) was a limited participant in practice both days to start Week 5 preparations.
• Jonathan Taylor has missed consecutive practices with an ankle injury sustained late in Week 4, indicating a high likelihood of a missed game against the Jaguars.
• The other impact Colts on the Week 5 injury report are C Ryan Kelly (DNP, DNP), CB Kenny Moore (DNP, DNP), and DE Kwity Paye (DNP, DNP).
• Jaguars TE Evan Engram returned to limited sessions on Wednesday and Thursday as he aims for a return from three missed games with a hamstring injury.
• S Darnell Savage also got in two limited sessions to start the week after missing the previous three games as well.

How Indianapolis Will Try To Win ::

Shane Steichen’s offense was humming against a stout Pittsburgh defense in Week 4. While the offense moved the ball well with Anthony Richardson before he departed with injury, the actual structure of the offense itself looked far more fluid with Joe Flacco under center. The circumstances of Richardson’s injury were a bit mystifying to me because this staff is clearly doing what they can to coach him into better pocket presence and a lower out-of-structure scramble rate, and then they call a designed quarterback keeper right after he departed the game with a stinger, which led to him taking a hard hit from a linebacker in the second level. Either way, Richardson left the game after almost two offensive drives and did not return, starting the Week 5 preparation with a limited showing. To me, it is likely we see Richardson back under center again against the Jaguars, at least to start. The reason why the offense looked to function so much better with Flacco in Week 5 has to do with route structure and timing (at least from what I can tell from the tape). Flacco has the ability to understand pressure, coverages, and diagnose alignments, which leads to more balls delivered on time and to the right read. We saw him pepper Michael Pittman and Josh Downs against the zone-heavy and single-high-heavy Steelers, which had to be almost all diagnostics and timing. Richardson simply lacks those abilities at this point in his career, making up for it through his elite mobility and cannon of an arm. The task at hand is a very different one against the Jaguars, a team that started the season with absurd man coverage rates and backed off almost entirely from those trends in Week 4, running their defense using an 84.8% zone coverage rate, 78.3% two-high rate, a 32.6% Cover-2 rate, and oodles of Cover-6 (21.7%). One final note on the differences between Richardson and Flacco – Richardson appeared to move the ball well on those first two drives but there were three questionable decisions by him in the early going. The first was the first long completion to Michael Pittman in blanket coverage on a deep crosser, a ball which probably should not have been thrown, the second was his decision to accept contact on his first big hit (fumble, recovered by Indi), and the third was the hit that took him out of the game for good (the box score update on that play literally was, “injury update – Richardson has returned to the game. Richardson was injured during the play,” lolz).

Jonathan Taylor appears highly unlikely to play in Week 5 after being diagnosed with a “mild high ankle sprain.” While that probably will limit the amount of time he is out, it definitely seems ominous for his chances of suiting up against the Jaguars. That leaves the potential for a massive hole in the Indianapolis offense considering Taylor’s elite involvement. He ranks sixth in snap rate at the position (77.5%), third in team opportunity share (88.2%), sixth in carries (72), and seventh in red zone touches (15, with five goal line attempts already). So, do we expect Trey Sermon to step into that workhorse-lite role or does special teams ace Tyler Goodson get in on the action? The good here is an offensive line blocking to the second most yards before contact (2.94) but it does not come with a clean setup. The Colts find themselves in a relatively poor on-paper matchup as the Jaguars cede 1.68 yards before contact per attempt and just 3.9 yards per carry. The Colts run game would take a significant hit should center Ryan Kelly miss (appears likely), and we can’t be certain Taylor’s big workload will fall onto just one player.

Another nod to the changes exhibited by Richardson this season is his improvement against two-high alignments. He managed just 0.34 fantasy points per dropback against two-high in his rookie season which has grown to 0.62 in 2024. That ranks fifth in the league, of quarterbacks with 40 or more dropbacks this season. The reasoning for the Jaguars shift from leading the league in man coverage to leading the league in zone coverage is not fully known, but I have to think it was largely due to the sheer number of injuries on the back end. I tentatively expect those tendencies to carry forward to Week 5 after the team held the Texans to 24 points a week ago. Of the Indianapolis pass-catchers to run more than 25 routes against zone in 2024, slot wide receiver Josh Downs leads the team in FP/RR at 0.76, with robust marks in target share (29.7%), targets per route run (38%), and first-read target rate (40.7%). He also actually leads the team in those four metrics against man this season as well, continuing forward his ascension from his rookie season. A low 5.1 aDOT means he’s going to need elite volume to return GPP viability in any given week. Since Richardson has 20 pass attempts or under in two of three fully healthy games this season, that could be slightly more difficult to come by in Week 5, at least under the assumption that the likely absence of Jonathan Taylor doesn’t fundamentally alter how this team approaches trying to win games (it might, but that chance is likely higher if it were Joe Flacco under center and not Richardson – again, it might be).

How Jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• These are two of the four remaining teams who have not scored 21 points or more through a month of play.
• The game total is a ridiculous 36.5 after opening at 35.5.
• Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa is reportedly symptom-free from his most recent concussion but remains on injured reserve.
• These two teams might have the worst quarterback situations in the league. As we know, it’s hard to win in this league without competent quarterback play.
• The Dolphins have lost the threat of the deep ball during the previous two weeks. If I’m McDaniel, I’m dialing up a deep shot to Tyreek Hill behind play action on the first play from scrimmage against the Patriots. Even if you don’t complete it, just the threat of deep passing will keep the back seven honest for the rest of the game.
• Both teams should aim to feature their backfield against opponents that are stout against the run [NE – 4.0 yards allowed per carry (seventh) and 1.11 yards allowed before contact (second), MIA – 4.2 yards allowed per carry (11^th) and 1.52 yards allowed before contact (ninth)].

How Miami Will Try To Win ::

The Dolphins are fresh off a putrid showing against a solid Titan defense in which Tyler Huntley drew the start after he was acquired from the Ravens practice squad a week earlier. Miami couldn’t move the football and ended with the lowest pass rate over expectation of any team in a single game this season (-21%). That said, the Titans lead the league in total offense allowed per game (243.8 yards per game) while the Patriots rank 24^th (353.3 yards per game). Skylar Thompson was limited throughout the week with a rib injury leading into Week 4 but was ultimately held out, paving the way for the recently acquired “Snoop” Huntley to draw the start for the Dolphins. With another week to heal, it remains to be seen who to expect to be under center for the Dolphins as they prepare to face the Patriots. I think at this point the only thing we can say for certain is it is unlikely to be Tim Boyle. Furthering the poor situation this team suddenly finds themselves in, there were injuries galore a week ago, as the team lost linebacker Jaelen Phillips to a knee injury and safety Jordan Poyer to a shin injury after losing offensive tackle Terron Armstead to a concussion the week prior. Armstead was unable to practice at all leading up to Week 4 but returned to a limited session to start the week yesterday (Wednesday), meaning he is likely now symptom free. The big picture here is that the team is so completely hamstrung by their quarterback situation (and other injuries) that they have largely been unable to execute a functioning offense for the previous three games, with Tua leaving Week 2 with his most recent concussion, Thompson leaving Week 3 with the ribs injury, and Huntley starting Week 4 after being with the team for less than a week. The only touchdown they have mustered in the previous two games was a garbage time rushing score from Huntley with under four minutes remaining against the Titans. All of that and the team now has to perform on a short week after playing on Monday night in Week 4. Not great, Bob.

Raheem Mostert managed a week of limited sessions leading up to Week 4 but was ultimately held out with his chest injury. He started Week 5 preparations with another limited showing on Wednesday. Jeff Wilson apparently tweaked his knee in pregame warmups before Week 4 and played just two offensive snaps, which paved the way for rookie Jaylen Wright to see his heaviest involvement of his young career with a 47% snap rate. Through all the uncertainty in the backfield, second-year phenom De’Von Achane has remained the lead back but has struggled to find the same successes he did as a rookie behind a poor on-paper offensive line. He has forced just five missed tackles and averages just 1.98 yards after contact per attempt on 53 carries this season, a far cry from his record setting efficiency from a season ago. Furthermore, his once great pass game involvement has come way down with Tua out of action, seeing just eight total targets over the previous two games after seven in each of the first two games of the season.

A team with Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane, and Jaylen Waddle (and even Jonnu Smith) has mustered just 389 yards of total offense during their previous two games. Not average, total. The Dolphins averaged 393.7 yards of offense per game in 2023. No singular metric highlights this drastic change in quarterback play more than Tyreek Hill’s underlying metrics with Tua versus all other quarterbacks. Hill averages 3.75 yards per route run with Tua and 2.39 with all other quarterbacks. His targets per route run with Tua is 36.3%; without Tua that drops to 25.9%. The offense has simply been unable to get the football to their top play makers with all quarterbacks not named Tua Tagovailoa. And that’s a problem. That’s also a Mike McDaniel thing as the once alpha offensive mind has been reduced to ruin in recent weeks. The offense makes zero sense, with everything confined to the short areas of the field. I get it, try and get the ball to your playmakers, but opposing defenses are able to collapse the depth without the threat of deep passing. If I’m McDaniel, I’m dialing a deep shot behind play action on the first play from scrimmage this week. There’s just nothing keeping the back seven honest right now. Instill that fear of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in your opponent immediately. If not, we’re liable to see another field goal battle in Week 5.

How new england Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By hilow >>

• The Commanders started their week of preparation with 13 players on the injury report, most notably RB Brian Robinson (DNP, knee).
• Not to be outdone by the Commanders, the Browns had 18 players listed on the first injury report of the week.
• Cleveland activated the practice window for RB Nick Chubb, which is truly remarkable considering the extent of his knee injury last season. I don’t expect him to make his return in Week 5, although the dude is clearly Superman.
• Browns OT Jack Conklin (hamstring), EDGE Myles Garrett (Achilles), OT Jedrick Wills (knee), and C Ethan Pocic (ankle) were the main absentees from practice Wednesday.
• Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are in the midst of a three-game torrid stretch in which they have punted once and turned the ball over once. That’s pretty insane in the current state of the league.
• On the other hand, the Browns rank second (tied with the Chiefs) in total pressure rate and rank first in pressure rate over expectation, and the Commanders have struggled in the face of pressure this season (kicked seven field goals against the Giants and their fifth-ranked pressure rate).

How cleveland Will Try To Win ::

The Browns are hemorraging bodies on both sides of the ball, with three primary offensive linemen and their best player on defense, Myles Garrett, all missing practice Wednesday. The O-line’s health, or lack thereof, and the poor performances from quarterback Deshaun Watson have left the Browns in bad shape through the first month of play, sitting at a 1-3 record while failing to score more than 18 points in any game this season. In fact, the Browns are one of just four teams yet to score 21 points or more at any point, joined by the Jaguars, Patriots, and Dolphins (who would have seen that last team mentioned at the start of the 2024 season?). For all the crap I’ve given Watson during the first four weeks of the season, he actually looked much better on tape in Week 4. And I’m not even talking about the end result, which could be argued as matchup-boosted as they played a Raiders team without Maxx Crosby; I’m more speaking to how Watson looked with his mechanics, mobility, poise, and arm strength. I’m not sure if we can definitively say that he’s turned a corner, but he definitely looked much improved on tape.

The Browns have been in control of one game environment this season, an 18-13 victory over the Jaguars in which they led 13-3 at the half. In that game, Jerome Ford saw his lowest snap rate of the young season at just 44%, handily out-touched 15 to eight by D’Onta Foreman. Ford has seen 75% or more of the offensive snaps in the three other games for the Browns. And while Nick Chubb had his practice window opened at the start of the week and got in a limited session on Wednesday, he worked exclusively to the side, and I have to think he would require some ramp-up time after destroying his knee a season ago. Look, Chubb has already proven to be Superman, but I expect him to be inactive come Sunday. That should, in turn, leave Ford with an expectation in the 75%-ish snap rate and 14-18 opportunity ranges, in theory, at least. Cleveland’s offensive line has been middling in run-blocking metrics (20th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt) and atrocious in pass protection, which makes sense when you consider they have played the entirety of the season without both starting All-Pro tackles. The pure matchup on the ground is about as good as they come against a Commanders defense allowing the third-most yards before contact (2.79) and 5.3 yards per carry (31st). The biggest concern here is the current state of the Cleveland offensive line, with three starters (both tackles and the center) unable to practice Wednesday, in addition to moderate expected volume for a team with the fourth-highest pass rate over expectation through four weeks.

Amari Cooper and Watson have yet to fully get on the same page. Watson missed a wide-open Cooper on a deep ball in the third quarter for a would-be touchdown, and Cooper dropped a pass that hit him in the chest and bounced straight in the air for a Raiders interception. Cooper now has a 13.5% drop rate, tied with rookie Malik Nabers for the most drops per target in the league. Furthermore, Cooper’s 60.9% catchable target rate ranks fifth-worst in the league of wide receivers to see ten or more targets (ahead of only Courtland Sutton, Calvin Ridley, Gabe Davis, and Ladd McConkey). Interestingly enough, Deshaun Watson’s 17.6% off-target throw rate is far from atrocious, succumbing to an abnormally high 9.5% drop rate (second-worst in the league behind only Daniel Jones) from his pass-catchers. If looking only at Cooper’s underlying metrics, we’re able to see some clear eruptions in the immediate future, considering a 46.8% team air yards share (seventh in the league), 467 total air yards (fourth in the league), solid 12.6 aDOT, and solid 30.2% first-read target rate, and a matchup with the Commanders and their spotty secondary could be just what the doctor ordered. Furthering that potential is a Washington defensive front generating pressure at the third lowest rate in the league (25.8%), which should help mitigate the liabilities of an offensive line ravaged by injuries. Finally, the Browns now rank fourth in pass rate over expectation, and only Cooper (37 targets) and Jerry Jeudy (30 targets) have seen more than 20 targets this season (running back Jerome Ford checks in at 20). On that note, Watson has averaged 37 pass attempts per game, while Cooper has an average of 9.25 targets and an average of 7.5 targets per game for Jeudy.

How washington Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• This game has one of the lowest offensive expectations we have seen all year.
• The Raiders seem likely to be moving on from All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams, who missed Week 4 with a “hamstring” injury and is now the subject of trade rumors.
• Running back Alexander Mattison is potentially in the midst of a takeover of the backfield from Zamir White.
• Denver’s offense has been bad, to say the least, with a conservative approach and mediocre personnel.
• The Broncos defense has been a top-five unit through the first four weeks of the year.
• The Raiders rank #1 in PFF’s run-defense grades, while the Broncos rank 30th in PFF’s run-blocking grades.

How las vegas Will Try To Win ::

The Raiders appear intent on moving on from Adams and are entertaining trade offers for him. It has already been announced that he will not play this week, so the Raiders we saw in Week 4 are the team from a personnel standpoint that we will be dealing with going forward. Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker are clearly the top options at wide receiver, with Brock Bowers operating as the lead tight end and Michael Mayer (when healthy) or Harrison Bryant playing in the No. 2 tight-end role. The backfield has been White’s to date, but Mattison has outplayed him in several areas and a backfield takeover appears imminent – especially after head coach Antonio Pierce made some comments after Sunday’s game suggesting exactly that. Despite going into “sell” mode with Adams, the Raiders have a 2-2 record and three winnable games coming up against the Broncos, Steelers, and Rams. Pierce is a highly competitive individual and this team will keep bringing it on a weekly basis.

This week, the Raiders face a Denver defense that ranks fifth in the league in DVOA through four games and has given up only two touchdowns in the last three weeks. The Broncos have been very good against the run, shutting down Breece Hall and Braelon Allen in Week 4, while the Raiders rank dead last in the NFL in PFF run-blocking and rushing grades. Las Vegas also ranks in the bottom five in the league in rushing offense DVOA and yards per rush attempt, so this is a situation where the numbers and the film definitely match up, as the Raiders are blocking poorly and running poorly. Even if Mattison takes over for White, it is unlikely a relatively middling talent like him is going to alter the outlook for the team’s rushing attack in this matchup. 

Considering how unlikely rushing success is for the Raiders, their ability to score points will likely rely on their passing attack. Meyers and Tucker combined for 16 of the team’s 24 targets last week in the first game without Adams. This week, one of them will be dealing with Patrick Surtain, although they both play a relatively high amount of their snaps in the slot, so it’s unlikely this turns into a “shadow” situation for either of them. The Raiders did not do a good job of getting Bowers involved last week, something we should expect to see rectified this week as they struggle to run and try to avoid the Broncos’ elite perimeter coverage that ranks fifth in PFF coverage grade. Denver plays the highest rate of man coverage in the league, which Bowers has struggled against this season – he ranks 31st out of 63 tight ends in PFF receiving grade against man coverage, while ranking second in the entire NFL against zone coverage. Considering all the elements of this matchup, Tucker’s speed may be a key for Las Vegas to move the ball and they may have to scheme him touches in various ways. In any regard, the likelihood of a low-scoring game makes this a spot where the Raiders are unlikely to be overly aggressive.

How denver Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By Mike Johnson >>

• The 49ers offense is back to full health and is a dynamic unit once again.
• Brock Purdy is throwing the ball down the field as well as he has at any point during his career, while Jordan Mason and the 49ers running game got back on track in Week 4.
• Arizona has scored 14 total points on their two opening drives the last two weeks while scoring only 13 points on their other 18 drives during that time frame.
• Arizona inexplicably ranked last in the league in pass rate over expectation in Week 4 despite playing in a game that they trailed by 2+ scores for the majority of.
• The Cardinals chances of being competitive in this game will be much higher if TE Trey McBride is cleared from his Week 3 concussion.

How arizona Will Try To Win ::

The Cardinals have been somewhat disappointing the last two weeks after a promising start to the year. They led for much of their opening week game in Buffalo against a very good Bills team prior to demolishing the Rams in Week 2. The last two weeks have left a lot to be desired from Arizona, however, as they have scored on the opening drive each week and then basically been inept offensively the rest of the game. Two weeks ago against Detroit, it made sense that they struggled as the Lions run defense made them one dimensional, and they struggled to get things going. However, this last week, against a previously futile defense by the Commanders, it was disheartening to see Arizona struggle so much. Perhaps the loss of TE Trey McBride was a much bigger deal than we realized, but Arizona put up one of the least inspiring offensive performances of the season in Week 4. 

The Cardinals have shown they can put together a solid, scripted opening drive as they have scored touchdowns to start every game so far. However, this week, against a familiar and talented 49ers defense, it seems likely that they will have a tougher time even in that area. The Cardinals struggled to protect Kyler Murray last week and while their running game has been solid this year outside of the Detroit game, they once again face a strong run defense in San Francisco. The 49ers rank 3rd in the NFL in QB pressure rate despite ranking 28th in blitz rate. This means they are getting into backfields consistently without exposing themselves in coverage. Murray’s elusiveness may buy him some time, but he will undoubtedly have trouble finding places to go with the ball as Arizona’s offensive scheme has been uninspiring in creating open receivers quickly, leading to Murray holding the ball too long and trying to ad-lib to create offense. That plan is unlikely to be fruitful against the 49ers. The strengths of the Cardinals offense so far this season have been the running of James Conner and the playmaking of Kyler Murray with his legs against undisciplined defenses (mainly just the Rams). San Francisco is likely to neutralize both of those areas, so the Cardinals are going to have to open up their toolbox and find something new if they want to keep up in this one. Making Trey McBride a focal point of the offense may be their best bet.

How san francisco Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By mike johnson >>

• Green Bay’s offense was rusty early in Jordan Love’s return before finding its rhythm in the second half.
• The Packers have one of the more favorable schedules for any offense in the league over the next several weeks.
• Green Bay has lost wide receiver Christian Watson to an ankle injury for several weeks, but his absence provides some clarity for us in terms of passing game roles and usage.
• The Rams have played in three very close games through four weeks and have adjusted their personnel usage and roles in response to their own offensive injuries.
• The Los Angeles defense ranks 31st in the league in both run defense DVOA and pass defense DVOA. 

How green bay Will Try To Win ::

When evaluating the Packers, we can basically throw out two of their four games due to the absence of Jordan Love. That leaves us with an opening week shootout against the Eagles and a Week 4 game against the Vikings where they fell behind 28-0 in the first half before a valiant second half comeback fell just short. We know this Packers offense is well coached and can put up points, but we also have a history of Matt LaFleur sometimes needing to be pushed by his opponent into an aggressive mindset. This is not to rain on the parade of those excited about the Packers this week, but more so just pointing out the fact that we only have two games of data on Green Bay and in both of those games they faced very good teams, one of which played a back and forth game with them, and the other which forced them to pick up the tempo and air it out. We have yet to see Green Bay jump out on an opponent and control a game and therefore can’t be sure how they will approach that situation if/when it happens.

The Packers certainly have a great on-paper matchup this week against a Rams defense that has struggled all year. Los Angeles has a defense that ranks 31st in DVOA against both the pass and the run. They gave up 41 points to the Cardinals and made their passing attack look elite, while the Cardinals passing game has struggled in their other three games. They gave up 24 points to the Bears (their season-high) last week and made their previously putrid rushing attack look very good. This is a flawed unit that can be had in a variety of ways. We can look for the Packers to get their ground game going this week after failing to do so in Week 4 and seeing Chicago run roughshod around the Rams. While this team is built around Jordan Love, the Matt LaFleur scheme depends highly on being able to run the ball to set up play action concepts and attack the intermediate to deep areas of the field.

When Green Bay does throw the ball, things are finally getting a little more condensed. Wide receiver Christian Watson is out for a few weeks, thrusting Dontayvion Wicks into a full-time role and solidifying their top three receivers as Wicks, Romeo Doubs, and Jayden Reed. Doubs and Wicks are primarily perimeter receivers while Reed is a “do-it-all” type who runs 70% of his snaps from the slot. Green Bay gets him involved in a variety of ways and he has amassed 312 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns in the two games that Love has played. He and Jacobs are likely to function as the engines of the offense this week and are likely to be successful doing so. Jordan Love was 5th in the NFL in average intended air yards in 2023 and has a great matchup and weapons to attack downfield this week. While the Packers pass rate will likely drop from what we’ve seen in the two games Love started this year, he will likely be aggressive in pushing the ball and have some success doing so. Keep in mind that this is a Rams team that has given up massive games to downfield wide receivers Jameson Williams, Marvin Harrison, Jr., and Jauan Jennings. 

How los angeles Will Try To Win ::

Game Overview ::

By MIKE JOHNSON >>

• The viability of the Giants’ offense will depend significantly on the status of star rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, who suffered a concussion at the end of their Week 4 game.
• New York has moved the ball relatively well this season but has been unable to convert those drives into touchdowns.
• The Giants have the 30th-ranked rushing offense by DVOA metrics through four weeks, while Seattle ranks seventh in run defense DVOA.
• Seattle is playing on a short week but has handled their business well against inferior opponents so far this season.
• Geno Smith leads the NFL in passing yards while facing three of the five most man-heavy coverage units in the league, while the Giants also rank in the top 10 in man-coverage rate.
• Seattle has a huge divisional matchup with the 49ers next Thursday night, which they will likely be aware of if the scoreboard gets out of hand in this one.

How new york Will Try To Win ::

The Giants’ offense revolves around Nabers. They have scored six touchdowns through four weeks. Three of those touchdowns (50%) have been scored by Nabers. He also accounts for 32% of their yards from scrimmage and 38% of their targets and receptions. The Giants’ starting offense has only one player with a PFF grade over 70 through four weeks and I’m sure you will be shocked to learn that Nabers is that player. To put that in perspective, Nabers currently ranks seventh among all NFL wide receivers in PFF receiving grade. Across the rest of the Giants’ starters: Daniel Jones is ranked 20th of 29 qualifying QBs, Devin Singletary is ranked 43rd out of 53 qualifying RBs, Wan’Dale Robinson is WR41 out of 50 qualifying WRs, and rookie Theo Johnson is ranked dead last among tight ends. This is all a big deal because Nabers suffered a concussion at the end of last Thursday night’s loss to the Cowboys and missed practice Wednesday, nearly a full week later. Considering that the Giants have only two practices left at the time of this writing before a cross-country flight and then a difficult matchup, the most likely outcome seems to be the Giants leaving him at home for this one, even though he is unquestionably the future of this franchise.

As we’ve already outlined, Nabers is the key to this Giants offense. His production is massive, but his presence also creates the little bit of success they have in other areas. Almost all of the Giants’ successful offensive plays that aren’t made by Nabers are opened up by the attention he draws and how they are able to open things up from that. If we remove him from that equation, things get tight in a hurry. Receivers will struggle to get quick separation, the running game will get clogged up as the defense is able to crowd the line of scrimmage, and Jones will be under a lot of pressure which – as we’ve seen before – can be a recipe for disaster. If Nabers is out, the Giants are likely to struggle creating any sort of offense. Head coach Brian Daboll will likely try to lean on the running game a little bit more, perhaps use Jones as a runner, and use quick-strike passes and bubble screens to try to counter the Seahawks’ pass rush and protect Jones from making mistakes. Their best/only chance will be keeping this game slow-paced and low-scoring.

If Nabers is somehow able to play, the Giants would have a fighting chance. He is truly a game-changing talent who can keep them in it with just a couple of big plays, but he’s also able to keep drives alive and sustain their time of possession and ball control. He is a top-10 NFL wide receiver already, possibly higher. New York faces a Seattle team that leads the league in QB pressure rate, although that is likely in part a function of the fact that they’ve faced the Broncos, Patriots, and “non-Tua” Dolphins. The Seahawks let Jared Goff of the Lions have a “perfect” game passing with zero incompletions on Monday night, but even in that game they managed to sack him three times. Quick-hitters to Robinson and Nabers, hoping for some yards after catch, would be the main method of moving the football, as the Giants rank 30th in rushing offense DVOA and the Seahawks have been very good against the run in every game except the high-octane Lions. The Giants may take some downfield shots to try to loosen things up, but Daboll has shown very little trust in Jones with his play calling and game management so far. New York’s chances of competing in this game depend on the availability of Nabers and the hope Seattle’s offense falters.

How seattle Will Try To Win ::

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Sunday night brings the Cowboys to Pittsburgh for a 43.5 total game with the Steelers favored by 3. At first glance that looked odd, but then I realized that Dallas is 2-2 with a negative point differential while Pittsburgh is 3-1 with a +22 differential, one of the best in the league. Of course, these two teams win games very differently. Dallas has a very solid offense, while the Steelers slow things down and don’t score much but have allowed only 53 points to be scored against them, second lowest in the league (something I never would have guessed before the season, the Chargers are lowest with just 50). Let’s dig in.

Pittsburgh

For Pittsburgh, Jaylen Warren is going to miss another game, leaving the backfield to Najee Harris with Aaron Shampklin and one of Jonathan Ward or La’Mical Perine backing him up. Dallas had a Showdown game in Week 4 and we talked about how they’ve been getting run over on the ground but have also faced some powerful rushing attacks, and to be wary of viewing them as the worst defense in the league against the run . . . and then they proceeded to hold the Giants to just 26 total rushing yards. Beware of early season small samples. This defense doesn’t look like it should be so horrible against the run, and I’m willing to bet they can continue to look better against it in this one. Najee Harris is being projected around the industry as one of the highest owned players on the Fanduel main slate (which includes the Sunday night game), so I think it’s safe to say he’s going to project very well here and be very popular. I don’t think he’s a terrible play as he’s a home favorite running back who is going to have an extremely robust role (the 6 targets last week with Warren out were particularly encouraging). On paper, he looks like an awesome play. I’m just a little wary because his career sub-4 YPC and lack of any real explosive ability (his longest carry in the entirety of last season was 25 yards) means he’s going to have to really grind his way there, and if he doesn’t find the end zone, he could easily fail. With Pittsburgh only having scored six offensive touchdowns in four games, there isn’t a lot of scoring to go around, and Justin Fields is always a threat to steal a rushing score. Najee’s a very strong play on paper due to his workload and passing game role – I’m just a little wary. One way to play this, if you play on Fanduel, would be to completely avoid him on their main slate but then load up in the Showdown where he’s clearly a much stronger play. Shampkin only saw a single touch last week and I’d expect him to only be lightly involved but he’s worth including in tournament pools because he could steal a score or something could happen to Najee.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, the Steelers are averaging just 27.25 pass attempts per game with Justin Fields at quarterback. Of those pass attempts, George Pickens is seeing 7.25 per game – a pretty nice target share. Ostensible WR2 Van Jefferson has seen a whopping 8 targets, Calvin Austin has 10, Tight end Pat Freiermuth has 20, the running backs have 20, and the rest are scattered around. On this low-volume offense, it’s really only Pickens, Freiermuth, and the RBs seeing meaningful volume. They’re also going up against an aggressive and strong pass defense, however, Dallas is also missing some important pieces with DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons out, while top cornerback Trevon Diggs got a mid-week downgrade with an ankle injury on Thursday before not practicing on Friday. He’s listed as questionable but a mid-week downgrade/DNP is generally bad news. I’m guessing he misses. That makes the matchup significantly easier for Pickens, and while the Steelers would prefer not to throw a lot, Pickens is definitely a guy who can hit on limited volume (he already has three catches of 35+ yards this season out of 20 total receptions). Jefferson and Austin are really just tourney punt plays despite being the WR2/WR3 of this offense – the Steelers just don’t throw much and when they do it isn’t to these two. You’d need a fluky touchdown to make them relevant. 

The other involved guy is of course Freiermuth, but he’s really in that traditional tight end safety valve role with an aDOT of just 4.9 yards. That means he probably needs volume or a touchdown to really hit – volume is scarce in this offense and touchdowns aren’t much better. At $6,600, he’s a tough click. TE2 and TE3 Darnell Washington and Connor Heyward can also be viewed as punt options. And yes, most of my Steelers interest is limited to Fields, Najee, and Pickens (and their kicker and DST). I’ll have smidges of the rest, but this is an offense that is both low volume and highly concentrated. 

Dallas

XANDAMERE’S SHOWDOWN SLANT

Week 5 wraps up with the Saints at the Chiefs for a 43.5 total game that has the Chiefs favored by 5.5. I think a good starting point for this analysis is to address the elephant in the room, which is the Chiefs offense broadly and Patrick Mahomes in particular.  The Chiefs had a well earned reputation for being an elite offense for years, but then last year they scored 22.2 points per game – right in the middle of the pack. Mahomes had the worst TD:INT ratio of his career at 27:14, the lowest QB rating of his career, the fewest yards per game of his career, and the fewest yards per pass attempt . . . basically he just wasn’t as good. But he’s still Patrick Mahomes, we say. Well, so far this year his TD:INT ratio is 6:5 and all of those other metrics I mentioned are even lower. And that’s with having breakout star Rashee Rice for three of the Chiefs four games. This feels almost sacrilegious but is it fair to say Mahomes just . . . isn’t as good as he was? 

Mahomes

The answer to the above is that I don’t know. If you watch him play he still makes some absolutely incredible throws. And you can put at least some of the blame on the Chiefs organization for struggling to find a high-end wide receiver to pair with Travis Kelce, as he had earlier in his career with Tyreek Hill. But whatever the reason, Mahomes just hasn’t been that good for roughly one and a quarter seasons of football. The Chiefs are getting by because even a “not as good” Mahomes is still pretty decent, and their defense has become absolutely elite. In short, the identity of the team has changed from an offensive powerhouse to a defensive stalwart. And, if you haven’t adjusted your thinking about the Chiefs to fit this new reality, you need to. That doesn’t mean they can’t still have offensive explosions – any team in the NFL can do that – but I think it does mean we should no longer view Mahomes as a top-5 quarterback and we should probably stop thinking about the Chiefs as a top-5 offense that’s just struggling a bit of late. Anyhow, moving on . . . 

Kansas City

The Chiefs backfield has become an interesting place, much to my dismay as a Carson Steele drafter in Best Ball. Steele had one week of lead-back duties in which he performed pretty well, but then Kareem Hunt came back. Steele lost a fumble last week and that was all she wrote as he handled just 5 opportunities on 18% of the snaps while Hunt saw 17 opportunities on a 45% snap share. The rest was Samaje Perine, who saw 5 opportunities (though no targets, oddly) on a 40% snap share. I think Hunt is the clear lead back here and Perine is going to be the primary change of pace and passing down back, while poor Steele is likely relegated to RB3 duties, at least for the time being. That gives Hunt significant upside in a positive game script and he’s a solid pass catcher as well, which protects him in a negative one. The snap share doesn’t scream full-on bell cow, but it was also his first week back with the team (though of course he’s been a Chief before). I think he probably lands somewhere around a 60% snap share, and 20 touches is well within his range of outcomes. The Saints have been fairly good against the run (though some of that is noisy due to two absolute blowouts in their four games), but Hunt’s price of $7,400 just doesn’t reflect the volume he’s likely to see. He’s a very strong on-paper play. Perine at $6,400 is wildly overpriced for his likeliest role as is Steele at $4,400 – their prices relegate both to “pay up to be contrarian” MME plays, and ones I’m not super interested in.

Showdown Ownership Projections!

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In the passing game, we must first note that when a player gets hurt during a game, the way a team responds in terms of doling out snaps and targets is often different than once the team has had a week to prepare. So, just looking at how things went last week isn’t necessarily indicative of how they’ll go this week. That said, rookie Xavier Worthy has gone from a preseason WR3 to the most talented healthy wide receiver left on the roster. His route tree has been extremely limited and he hasn’t yet seen more than 4 targets in a game – you’d think the Chiefs will be working hard this week to expand that route tree and make use of his talent, but it’s a question mark how much additional responsibility he’ll be able to take on after just one week of no Rice. Maybe he goes from 3-4 targets per game to 5-7? At $9,000, that’s a really tough sell for me. He’s crazy fast and so has a lot of upside with the ball, but man, $9k feels like a dramatic overreaction. I’m probably only going to use a little bit of him at this salary. The biggest beneficiary from a snap count perspective last week was Justin Watson, who went from 39% to 69%, but still only saw 3 targets. We’ve seen this with Watson before when guys got hurt – his role hasn’t really changed a whole lot even if he’s on the field more. He generally caps out at 4-5 targets (except for one weird game last year with 11). Still, at $3,400, that’s certainly in play as a value option. Juju Smith-Schuster played half the snaps without a target and looks awfully washed up but is $2,800. Skyy Moore and Mecole Hardman saw the field a bit as well. This is a tough wide receiver corps to figure out, but I see it like this: Worthy is overpriced as anything but a very contrarian tournament option, but he might get a lot of ownership as the “new WR1 for Patrick Mahomes,” so he may not actually be very contrarian at all. Watson’s a fine value play with a limited ceiling. JuJu, Moore, and Hardman all feel like pretty risky punt options to me. 

The biggest beneficiary of Rice’s absence last week was Travis Kelce, who finally had a solid game. After 12 targets through the first three games for 69 scoreless yards (nice), Kelce put up a 7/89/0 line in Week 4 on 9 targets. Let’s consider the story around Kelce this year: he’s 38 years old and the Chiefs were planning to pull back a little on his regular season workload to preserve him for the playoffs. Well guess what Chiefs, with Rice out you’re going to have to use him now, and I think they will. $8,600 is a fairly low price for Kelce based on his historical norms, so we’re getting a discount that accounts for the workload/age risk. I think he’s a great option here and my favorite Chiefs pass catcher – he’ll be popular but deservedly so, as he’s the best pass catcher the Chiefs have standing at the moment. We could also see a little more offensive involvement from Noah Gray, who got a nice contract extension right before the season and who caught 4 of 4 targets last week after Rice was injured (after seeing just 5 total targets in the first 3 games). The Chiefs frequently have Kelce and Gray on the field together so I’m happy to pair them as well, but I’d be a little wary of pairing Gray with JuJu as they’re the ones most likely competing for snaps as the Chiefs shift from 11 to 12 personnel formations. 

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