Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes tweaked his ankle injury in the team’s Week 9 overtime win but got in a full practice both days this week (through Thursday).
- Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster remained sidelined in both practices so far this week and appears headed for a third consecutive missed game in Week 10.
- DeAndre Hopkins saw his snap rate jump from 32% in his first game with the Chiefs to 60% in Week 9. Based on previous usage trends in Kansas City, I would expect that to jump slightly higher against the Broncos, but there doesn’t appear to be a near-every-down role in the cards, likely to be capped around 80% on a weekly basis moving forward.
- The Broncos are one of the healthier teams in the league at this point in the season with nobody listed as a ‘DNP’ this week.
- The Chiefs are the better team top to bottom here, meaning it would take a highly variant game environment for the Broncos to run the game plan they would probably prefer in this spot.
- These two teams are ranked first (Chiefs) and second (Broncos) in yards allowed before contact per attempt on this slate.
How denver Will Try To Win ::
The Broncos have been one of the more game-plan-specific and opponent-specific teams in the league when it comes to diagnosing how they are likely to approach a matchup, with two games greater than one deviation above expected pass rates and one game greater than one standard deviation below expected pass rates through the season’s first nine weeks. Rookie quarterback Bo Nix has six games with 33 pass attempts or more this year, with 25, 26, and 27 in the three other games. That said, this Broncos team has beaten who they are supposed to beat and struggled with offensive efficiency against better defenses, notably averaging 28.2 points per game against the five opponents they have played that rank in the bottom half of the league in points allowed per game and struggling to 10.5 points per game against the four defenses they have played ranked in the top half of the league in points allowed per game. That is notable in this spot, considering the Chiefs rank fourth in points allowed per game at 18.4. Base on the matchup and known tendencies from head coach Sean Payton, I think it’s likely we see the Broncos start this one with a ground leaning approach, with aerial aggression that could pick up rapidly should they fall behind by a meaningful amount.
We’ve heard continued rumblings out of Denver that insist rookie running back Audric Estime will be more involved in the offense for the previous month since he returned from injured reserve. The fact of the matter is that Estime has played at most seven offensive snaps during that stretch, so I don’t know how much I buy the reports this week that Payton wants the rookie more involved. Fool me once, and the like. Javonte Williams has continued to play a 1A role in a strict timeshare, so the reports of Estime being more involved in the offense could come at the expense of primary change-of-pace option Jaleel McLaughlin. Yes, Estime has been the most efficient back on the roster (6.3 yards per carry behind a robust 5.20 yards after contact per attempt), but that also comes with a small 11-carry sample size. Williams and McLaughlin have each struggled to 3.8 and 3.9 yards per carry marks and 2.42 and 2.58 yards after contact per attempt marks, respectively, so at the same time it’s not as if anyone is really running away with the job. The Denver offensive line has been serviceable (middle of the pack) in run-blocking metrics but ranks near the top of the league in pass-blocking metrics, painting a clearer picture as to the struggles of the run game through the first half of the season. The pure rushing matchup could also not get any worse against a Chiefs defense holding opponents to the fewest yards before contact per attempt (1.27) and the third-fewest rush yards per game (83.9).
I honestly have no clue what to make of this team’s pass-catching corps behind Courtland Sutton. Check out these snap rates from Week 9. Sutton: 85%, Adam Trautman: 61%, Lil’Jordan Humphrey: 49%, Troy Franklin: 40%, Devaughn Vele: 40%, Nate Adkins: 38%, Marvin Mims: 35%, and Lucas Krull: 29%. Lolz. And sure, the Chiefs lost alpha corner L’Jarius Sneed this offseason, but they are still one of the better pass defenses in the league this year. If the Chiefs are able to control the game early, things could get ugly for the Broncos in a hurry.
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