Game Overview ::
By MIKE JOHNSON >>
- This is the second meeting between these teams, with the 49ers winning the first matchup, 36-24, in Seattle in Week 6.
- Christian McCaffrey made his season debut in Week 10 and played 89% of the snaps, quickly resuming his elite role on a high-powered offense.
- San Francisco is in a battle within its division, as all four teams are within a game and a half in the standings.
- The 49ers have won six straight games over the Seahawks and have won the last four by at least 12 points.
- DK Metcalf will make his return from a sprained MCL after sitting out two games and the bye week.
HOW SEATTLE WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Seahawks are in a bit of a free fall and their Week 10 bye came at just the right time. After starting 3-0 against a soft schedule, Seattle has gone 1-5 in its last six games while losing those five games by an average of 12.2 points. One of those was a 36-24 home loss on a short week to this same 49ers team that was playing without CMC, but that did have Brandon Aiyuk at that time. The Seahawks lost in overtime to the Rams prior to their Week 9 bye after failing to convert a fourth down in the Rams red zone and then giving up a long TD to end it. Seattle’s defense has been an issue during its recent losing stretch, allowing 26+ points in all of those losses. This 49ers offense is very high-powered and has given them the business once already this year, so the Seahawks must enter this game knowing that they need to put a big number on the scoreboard to have a chance.
The Seahawks rank second in the NFL in pass rate over expectation (PROE) as Geno Smith has adjusted to new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb’s scheme. Metcalf’s return is important in what should be a physical game against a very good 49ers defense, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a breakout game against the Rams in Metcalf’s absence. It will be interesting to see if the Seahawks keep JSN in an expanded role and use the full route tree he is capable of now that he has shown it in game action. Prior to his big Week 8 performance, he had been used primarily on very basic routes and in the short areas of the field. We may see the passing game fully evolve now with Metcalf and JSN emerging as one of the top WR duos in the league, as envisioned when JSN was selected in the first round of last year’s draft.
The high pass rate is also in large part a function of a very flawed offensive line that struggles to get a push in the running game against good defenses and has a hard time providing protection against teams that blitz at a high rate. The 49ers blitz at the third-highest rate in the league, dropping more defenders in coverage and relying on their front four to apply pressure. They have some very good pass rushers, so they may be able to overwhelm the Seahawks’ offensive line even though they only managed one sack in the first game. As far as DVOA metrics go, the 49ers rank second against the pass and 20th against the run. However, the inefficiency of the Seahawks is such that it is hard to imagine they can run at a high rate or do so effectively in this matchup. Seattle should enter this game knowing it needs a lot of points and its most likely way to get there is through Metcalf, JSN, and getting Kenneth Walker III involved in the passing game. The Seahawks fell way behind in the first matchup while running the ball far too often on first-down plays, leading to long third downs and truncated drives that ended with punts. Expect a pass-heavy game plan for the Seahawks in this one, out of necessity in the early going and out of desperation as the game moves on.
You must be logged in to view collective notes about a game.
You must be logged in to add notes about a game.