Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- The Rams have played in seven games decided by one score or less, out of nine total games. That should highlight how Sean McVay approaches game management.
- Both Rams offensive tackles (Rob Havenstein and Joe Noteboom) have yet to practice this week, as of Thursday. Center Jonah Jackson and left guard Steve Avila are off the injury report after each dealing with various injuries already this season.
- Kyren Williams has one of the most robust workloads in the league.
- Rhamondre Stevenson averages 19.23 DK points on 21.5 opportunities per game in games the Patriots are not blown out.
HOW LOS ANGELES WILL TRY TO WIN ::
The Rams have played in seven games decided by one score or less, out of nine total games. That should highlight how McVay approaches trying to win football games, with a more holistic approach to game management than simply trying to design individual plays to exploit his opponent. That isn’t to say McVay doesn’t pay attention to game planning or that this team plays to their opponent, simply that McVay approaches football games trying to emerge with a victory, an approach that can look differently dependent on the opponent, the week, the state of his roster, the weather, whether the game is at home or on the road, or any other variable at play leading up to, and during, and NFL game. Against an opponent averaging the second-fewest points per game this season (16.0), the game plan (and the adjustments made during the contest) could look a lot different than they did against the Vikings, or the Packers, or the 49ers. I expect a more run-balanced approach with short-area passing mixed in on early downs, designed to be an extension of the run game to keep the team ahead of the sticks and sustain drives. We’ll continue to see the individual design elements that make a McVay offense superb, like pre-snap motion, layered routes, and dynamic route structure that can change based on a player’s read, but the overall aggression likely takes a significant step back due to the opponent.
Williams has a ridiculous seven games with more than 85% of the team’s offensive snaps across his nine appearances, leading to one of the most robust workloads in the league. His 49 red-zone touches lead the league, his 19.6 carries per game rank second, his 10 total touchdowns rank second, he has scored in all but one game (last week when the Rams failed to score an offensive touchdown for only the second time with Matthew Stafford under center), and his opportunity share ranks second. Williams is running behind a middling offensive line, one that is likely better on paper than they have performed this season due to the myriad of injuries they have been forced to fight through. That said, two primary contributors along the offensive line in Havenstein and Noteboom (both tackles) have yet to practice this week, but the interior has recently gotten healthier with the returns of center Jonah Jackson and left guard Steve Avila. Consider it a plus matchup for Williams and the Los Angeles run game.
Puka Nacua played in his first fully healthy game of the season in Week 10, parlaying a 79% snap rate into a 9-98 line on 14 targets. Yes, Cooper Kupp is still capable of getting the job done, but Puka is the alpha through the air in this offense. The two are tied at 0.32 targets per route run while Puka leads in yards per route run (2.60 to 2.16) in a more downfield role (10.4-yard aDOT to the 6.9 of Kupp). Either way, the combination of Puka and Kupp accounts for 64% targets per route run and a 59.6% first-read target rate – pretty decent, if you ask me. Demarcus Robinson should be on the field in a near every-down role for an offense that lives out of 11-personnel, something that has also influenced the tight end snaps of late. Davis Allen came out of nowhere to usurp Colby Parkinson for offensive snaps in Week 10, leading the unit with an 80% snap-rate share and converting six targets into 34 yards. Realize those six targets came in a game in which Stafford threw the football 46 times, but Parkinson was supposed to be the bridge tight end after signing a lucrative contract this offseason.
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