Game Overview ::
By HILOW >>
- Colts head coach Shane Steichen has gone back to Anthony Richardson under center, reportedly for the rest of the season. This is the correct decision for the future of the franchise, in my opinion.
- Michael Pittman practices in full on Wednesday after missing the team’s Week 10 loss.
- The Jets have been a veritable disaster this season despite every effort to shake things up, going so far as to fire their head coach and snag wide receiver Davante Adams at the trade deadline.
- The Jets’ primary wide-receiver splits against Cover-3 after the addition of Adams are interesting, to say the least.
HOW INDIANAPOLIS WILL TRY TO WIN ::
Steichen has gone back to Richardson under center, reportedly for the rest of the season. This is the correct decision for the future of the franchise, in my opinion, but places a significant damper on the upside of the offense considering his league-low completion rate creates a relative inability of the offense to sustain drives. We know a few things about the quarterback situation in Indianapolis this season: (1) Richardson was not good in the structure of the offense to begin the season; (2) Richardson had a scramble rate when pressured nearly two-thirds lower than in his brief rookie season, and (3) Veteran quarterback Joe Flacco had three really poor fantasy outings in four starts. I still regard Steichen as one of the better “scheme coaches” in the league, in that he is adept in creating an offense built around the players he has on the field, typically serving to maximize the upside of his best options. The problem, to me, is that he has not coached to those same tendencies this season (again, at least to me, and from what I saw on tape), which begs the question of “does Steichen stop trying to force the square peg (Richardson) into the round hole (the offensive structure)” in Richarson’s second stint as the starting quarterback of the offense? I have to think us seeing a new-look Colts offense in the coming weeks is at least on the table. But as things currently stand, this offense is likely in a really tough spot against a Jets defense holding opponents to 302.3 yards per game (seventh), 21.4 points per game (10th), and 168.3 passing yards per game (second).
Jonathan Taylor continues to operate in a quietly massive workhorse role in healthy games this season, ranking first in opportunity share (87.4%), third in snap rate (78.4%), and first in breakaway run rate (15.1%). The Indianapolis offensive line has been equally as good, blocking to the fifth-highest yards before contact per attempt (2.27) while ceding just a 28.9% pressure rate on dropbacks. The matchup in the trenches is a difficult one against a Jets defense allowing just 1.73 yards before contact per attempt while generating pressure at the second-highest rate this season, per Fantasy Points Data. But for this offense to be successful in sustaining drives, we need to see better structure and play-calling tendencies on early downs, both of which should limit the times the team faces third-and-long situations, the situations that really got Richardson into trouble in his first stint as the starter.
The likely return of Pittman after the veteran receiver missed Week 10 should return Adonai Mitchell to a situational role after the promising rookie led the team in snap rate (94%) and was on a route in 37 of 39 Joe Flacco dropbacks a week ago. Alec Pierce should retain his role as the primary downfield options while Josh Downs is locked into a “standard for a slot receiver” 60-70% weekly snap rate role, considering the team’s elevated 12-personnel utilization rates. Somewhat shockingly, Pittman has just one game all season with more than 36 yards in which Richardson started, highlighting the veteran’s emphasis on timing over separation, something that is a difficult bet with Richardson under center. An interesting aspect of this matchup that is likely to go overlooked by the field is the fact that the Jets face the third deepest aDOT (9.9 yards) while Richardson has the deepest average intended air yards (13.0) this season. Pierce’s aDOT in passes thrown by Richardson this season stands at a ridiculous 23.0, by far the deepest in the league, and the young speedster also leads the team in receiving yardage in games started by Richardson (251).
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