Game Overview ::
By hilow >>
- Oh boy, the defense I would consider the top unit in the league, with the highest blitz rate in the league, against the team ranked 30th in giveaways per game (1.9) and 26th in sacks taken per game (3.1).
- Vikings RB Aaron Jones was limited in both sessions so far this week (as of Thursday).
- Vikings QB Sam Darnold returned to a full practice Thursday while dealing with a throwing hand injury.
- Titans RB Tony Pollard upgraded from a DNP Wednesday to a limited showing Thursday, making it likely he plays against the Vikings.
- Titans corner L’Jarius Sneed is still not practicing with a quad injury that has held him out of action for the previous four games.
How Minnesota Will Try To Win ::
The Vikings have been able to leverage a top defense to dictate their game environments this season. Quarterback Sam Darnold has six games of 28 pass attempts or fewer, with just 31, 34, and 38 attempts in the other three games. On paper, the Vikings carry the eighth highest pass rate over expectation this season (in keeping with a Kevin O’Connell offense), but the fact of the matter is that their expectation baseline is extremely low due to the effectiveness of their defense. Furthermore, their offense hasn’t exactly been dominant in yards per play (5.6, 13th in the league), with the true genius being their ability to keep teams off balance, stay ahead of the chains, and hit their primary pass-catchers downfield in key situations. The fact that the best wide receiver in the game has just one game of double-digit targets speaks volumes to the effectiveness of the Minnesota defense, as this man could command targets with the best wide receivers to ever play the game. This spot presents an interesting dynamic as the Titans have been highly effective at suppressing total offensive production this season after all their offseason additions, ranking second in yards allowed per game.
Lead back Aaron Jones has five games this season with 20 running back opportunities or more, with three games of 25 running back opportunities or more. That has left him with one of the more robust weekly “pre-touchdown” floors in the league – a floor that is right in line with his overall RB16 ranking on the year. His 31 red zone touches ranks 11th in the league but has returned just three total touchdowns, good (bad?) for a lowly 1.8% touchdown rate on 142 carries and 32 targets. That works out to 15.8 carries and 3.6 targets per game across nine appearances. Basically, Jones provides a solid weekly floor but has returned a 4x salary multiplier on his Week 11 salary just once and a 3x salary multiplier just twice all season. The addition of Cam Akers at the trade deadline has also removed the need to run Jones in true workhorse usage, most likely to be around 60-65% snap rates for the remainder of the season. That relative cap on his usage upside only takes a hit in game environments the Vikings control considering the age and tread off of Jones’ tires. The matchup on the ground against the Titans is “fine” with the team ranked near the middle of the pack in most meaningful metrics against the run this season.
Justin Jefferson just continues to put up elite underlying metrics, the custodian of a 42.4% air yards share, 12.3 aDOT, 29.7% target share, 0.28 TPRR, 2.99 YPRR, and 35.8% first-read target share this season. But his volume has not yet matched his elite talent having double-digit targets just once all season. The likeliest scenario leaves him in the eight to nine target range most weeks, highly dependent on the opposition’s ability to achieve some level of offensive success against a Vikings defense allowing just 17.4 points per game this season (third). Tight end T.J. Hockenson has been held to 46% of the offensive snaps or fewer in each of his two games this season after being activated from injured reserve, which is a mark that is likely to gradually increase as the season moves on considering the Vikings are working towards building their team for the playoffs. That has kept both Josh Oliver and Johnny Mundt involved, with snap rates dependent on personnel utilization. Jordan Addison continues to serve as the primary perimeter receiver opposite Jefferson while Jalen Nailor has been relegated to situational roles with Addison back in the fold. The truth of the matter with these secondary options is that none of them are likely to see more than five to six targets on a weekly basis in the current structure of this offense.
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