Kickoff Sunday, Nov 17th 1:00pm Eastern

Jaguars (
16.75) at

Lions (
30.75)

Over/Under 47.5

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Notes

Game Overview ::

By Hilow >>
  • Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has already been ruled out for Week 11 against the Lions, meaning Mac Jones will draw his second consecutive start.
  • Jaguars RB Tank Bigsby did not practice Wednesday after sustaining an ankle injury in the team’s Week 10 loss.
  • Lions TE Sam LaPorta picked up an AC joint sprain in his shoulder in the team’s Week 10 comeback win over the Texans. He appears unlikely to play this week although the injury has been deemed mild in nature.
  • I can’t remember the last time I saw a 14-point spread in an NFL game.

How jacksonville Will Try To Win ::

After last week’s game plan against the Vikings, it is clear head coach Doug Pederson is taking a training wheels approach with his backup quarterback. Mac Jones had an abysmal 6.6 average intended air yards per pass attempt value, with 13 of his 22 pass attempts aimed at one of three tight ends to play significant snaps. The team utilized an elevated 61% 12-personnel rate in that contest and managed a paltry 44 offensive plays run from scrimmage while not able to sustain a drive outside of their second possession. As such, I think it’s clear that the team would like to crack down on defense after shifting to an insane 88.1% two-high utilization rate against the Vikings (this defense has mixed up coverages and alignments more than any team in the league this year), playing over 64% of their defensive snaps through the combination of Cover-2 (38.1%) and Cover-6 (26.2%), to give their team the best chance to stay in this game.

The likely absence of Tank Bigsby leaves the backfield in the seemingly overtaken hands of Travis Etienne after the former alpha back played under 40% of the team’s offensive snaps in his previous three appearances. Etienne’s 4.3 yards per carry mask an inability to generate yardage on his own, punctuated by just 2.57 yards after contact per attempt and 10 missed tackles forced on 70 carries this season. For comparison, Bigsby holds a 4.33 yards after contact per attempt mark and 27 missed tackles forced on 95 carries. And then there’s the matchup against a Lions defense forcing the fourth highest pass rate over expectation while holding opponents to the sixth fewest rushing yards per game (100.8). It is worth noting that the Lions have largely been “good against the run” due to routinely forcing extremely negative game scripts for their opponents more so than they are simply stout against the run as they are allowing 4.4 yards per carry (17th) behind a middling 1.87 yards allowed before contact per attempt.

An absurd 13 of 22 passes from Mac Jones in the team’s Week 10 loss to the Vikings were directed at tight ends, with Evan Engram leading the way with eight looks, followed by three for Brenton Strange and two for Luke Farrell. It then starts to make sense how Jones held a lowly 6.6 average intended air yards per pass attempt. Except now the team gets an inside-out funnel pass defense in the Lions, one that has ceded the second fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. In other words, the team’s ability to move the football at a meaningful rate likely comes down to Jones’ ability to push the ball outside the hashes to Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis, which isn’t something that I would be inclined to bet on in this setup. Newly anointed slot man Parker Washington saw his snap rate crippled due to the heavy 12-personnel rates a week ago, something that would likely have to reverse for him to see the field at a meaningful rate.

How detroit Will Try To Win ::

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